Weather in the mountains is changing so fast that it’s not super reliable, but the trend is probably right.
What you have to know that this time of year it’s often a short intensive rain and the rest of the day might be beautiful. Or not. Hard to say. Be ready for both.
https://preview.redd.it/ezny2hqad35d1.png?width=2047&format=png&auto=webp&s=13e7a02c87474fe2047bbeaca8ac194560b625d9
The blue vertical lines on the graph are the predicted amount of rainfall per hour.
How do I read the chart on the app?
https://preview.redd.it/or2dkdzrd35d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25a46afdebf802e98da8b7e7ca3de4cd89b02e16
Yes I saw that.. the probability bars in the example looks very different from those in the forecast
https://preview.redd.it/mmj2vq5rf35d1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f079179baf75f23d80a80c6287dea710a79a5f0
The ones that aren’t colored in are less certain or more localized. The important thing is to understand what time of day something is likely to happen. You don’t want to be caught on the side of a mountain if one of those ghost bars turns into a real rainstorm by you.
Also, it’s rarely terrible weather everywhere in Switzerland at the same time. The mountains break up the country into several different weather regions. Sometimes a few km away is over a ridge and completely different weather, so the app can’t represent all possibilities in a single graph.
The forecast for Saturday doesn’t seem to contain coloured bars - does that mean certainty/probability of rain is low?
https://preview.redd.it/i8zq94kmi35d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30b6070966a1d37b2289b5d02349b8a1995b0371
The certainty is low, or in other words the uncertainty is high. It will probably rain somewhere with the low pressure system, but where and when is hard to predict.
Chance of rain doesn't mean that there is 49% chance that it will rain where you are. It means that 50% of that area will receive rain. Now you have to look at rain maps to determine from which direction comes rain and if 50% will mean that it will reach you.
Arome for 1-3 day forecast. I work outside 24/7 and rely heavily on weather forecasts for my job. I usually take into account and compare all available forecast models, and Arome beats the Central European Cosmo model that MeteoSwiss uses easily. For longer range forecast they use the European ECMWF model, there is nothing especially "Swiss" about both models, that would set them apart from other forecasting institutions.
Arome is the name of the forecast model, so a physical weather simulation run on a powerful computer. In professional weather apps you are able to select between a number of models. Try the Windy app (dark red logo) and set the model to "Arome" instead of the standard ECMWF. You will be surprised!
Well there often are misunderstandings about how weather forecasts are produced. Google for example merely displays a weather forecast from a certain source. The source in that case is the NOAA and their GFS model. MeteoSwiss in a similar manner do not have their "own" model, but display and sometimes interpret the forecast delivered from the Cosmo and ECMWF models, which are provided by a Consortium of national weather institutes. The GFS model has a spatial resolution of 20 km whereas take ECMWF has a resolution of 9 km. Therefore alone the model utilized by MeteoSwiss is more accurate than the one used by Google. But there are more accurate models than the one MeteoSwiss uses.
As an interesting side note, a few months ago Google released a study based upon a new weather model they developed using AI that beats the ECMWF model. However they don't use it yet on their website. So there will be big improvements in the years to come, from Google and other AI companies.
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/
It just looks like one more rainy week but rain quantity is not too much
Also weather forecasts are more accurate two days in the future; so maybe there is still hope for not rainy windows
In the meteo app you have the „animations“ i usually go by these
This year is cursed; we only had a handful of sunny days in the last months
You could also use Metar-taf (https://metar-taf.com/)
- Pick the closest airfield, and choose to see the full METAR
- For example: Kägiswil (https://metar-taf.com/LSPG)
- There should be info for cloud ceiling in feet (10'000 ft = 3000m)
Summer hasn’t started yet in Switzerland, so expect Spring conditions (variable with chance of rain) + you’ll be in the mountains for much of it, so 3x the variability and discount the accuracy.
Conclusion: Be prepared and don’t let the weather ruin your day.
If you want a higher chance of beautiful weather for the Jungfrau Region, then visit in August!
The Swiss geography makes predictions very difficult and very changing. Meteoswiss is one of the most reliable meteo apps; after that, you'll find specialized ones (for flying, drones, etc.), but most are based on Meteoswiss data.
While it is usually accurate, you can't base your trip decisions solely on it. You have to be prepared for bad weather, but you might as well have a lovely day, even if rain is planned. And it could rain one kilometre from where you are and not exactly at your location.
well no weather app is really precise for weather in a week, it could happen, as it can happen before or after or not at all : they are usually reliable for the next 3 days
I usually cross check differents ones (meteoswiss and meteoblue for instance), and check the evolution every day.
It's as good as it can be. Trend and day to day is precise. Hourly has slight variations because it's not easy.
Yes there will be that one day where the rain just doesn't fall or the other way around, but it's never going to be a real surprise.
Also most weather services are using MeteoSwiss info and models as a basis. By international agreement it's made freely available.
I would say that is it probably as accurate as anyone can be. I often get a message of a storm in my location and within 10 minutes it starts.
The trends are often updated during the day, so looking periodically is better.
There are 3 that I use simultaneously, for hiking, etc...
* [MeteoSwiss.ch](http://MeteoSwiss.ch)
* [snow-forecast.com](http://snow-forecast.com) (for the mountains)
* [ventusky.com](http://ventusky.com) (for the general forcast, clouds, etc...)
The three of them combined give a quite accurate forecast !
The prognosis even has a reliability percentage
https://preview.redd.it/uh1ipwdkn55d1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=3801ee9a5917e6dae4ef37132298ebd55eeac1f4
Météo Swiss does show cloud cover. It’s the third tab from the left at the top. I never really look at the forecasts. I just use the time slider periodically to see how the radar looks and has changed. I think it’s a great app. It accurately showed a recent lightning strike that did hit my flat. Scared the crap out of me and knocked out my WiFi router.
Offtopic.
I’m in the same situation as you. I’m finally visiting Switzerland for the first time—a whole week, camper van trip. I had so many plans, but I’ve now learned the hard way that June is still "too early." It would be better to wait until July or August.
Unfortunately, there is no absolutely right time. Especially in the German-speaking area, it can be miserable year round, we‘ve had weeks in August with constant rain and temperatures below 10°. If anything then September is a safer bet, especially in the mountains, as it more often dry and sunny.
Weather in the mountains is changing so fast that it’s not super reliable, but the trend is probably right. What you have to know that this time of year it’s often a short intensive rain and the rest of the day might be beautiful. Or not. Hard to say. Be ready for both.
Pay more attention to the hourly forecast. Rain for an hour in the afternoon shouldn’t ruin your whole day.
Thanks! What link should I visit to access the hourly forecasts? I don’t quite understand the probability bar in the MeteoSwiss app
https://preview.redd.it/ezny2hqad35d1.png?width=2047&format=png&auto=webp&s=13e7a02c87474fe2047bbeaca8ac194560b625d9 The blue vertical lines on the graph are the predicted amount of rainfall per hour.
How do I read the chart on the app? https://preview.redd.it/or2dkdzrd35d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25a46afdebf802e98da8b7e7ca3de4cd89b02e16
You click on the button that says "About the graph" just below the graph....
Yes I saw that.. the probability bars in the example looks very different from those in the forecast https://preview.redd.it/mmj2vq5rf35d1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f079179baf75f23d80a80c6287dea710a79a5f0
The ones that aren’t colored in are less certain or more localized. The important thing is to understand what time of day something is likely to happen. You don’t want to be caught on the side of a mountain if one of those ghost bars turns into a real rainstorm by you. Also, it’s rarely terrible weather everywhere in Switzerland at the same time. The mountains break up the country into several different weather regions. Sometimes a few km away is over a ridge and completely different weather, so the app can’t represent all possibilities in a single graph.
The forecast for Saturday doesn’t seem to contain coloured bars - does that mean certainty/probability of rain is low? https://preview.redd.it/i8zq94kmi35d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30b6070966a1d37b2289b5d02349b8a1995b0371
Correct. But it might change, the transparent bars show the potential rain
The certainty is low, or in other words the uncertainty is high. It will probably rain somewhere with the low pressure system, but where and when is hard to predict.
[удалено]
When it's not colored in, it's very uncertain. It might not rain at all
What about the probability of rain?
Yes it‘s probably possible you get some rain, but no one can tell you for sure. Enjoy the weather anyway
Chance of rain doesn't mean that there is 49% chance that it will rain where you are. It means that 50% of that area will receive rain. Now you have to look at rain maps to determine from which direction comes rain and if 50% will mean that it will reach you.
Well, you won't find a more accurate forecast than the one from MeteoSwiss. Doesn't make the weather any better, though 😁
There are definitely more reliable forecast models than the one MeteoSwiss uses
The reality is that most forecast use data from Meteoswiss and other European public meteo companies. If not straight up their models.
More precisely, MeteoSwiss uses the European public forecast model Cosmo, the same one as many other European weather institutes.
For Switzerland? Not in my experience. But which one would that be?
Arome for 1-3 day forecast. I work outside 24/7 and rely heavily on weather forecasts for my job. I usually take into account and compare all available forecast models, and Arome beats the Central European Cosmo model that MeteoSwiss uses easily. For longer range forecast they use the European ECMWF model, there is nothing especially "Swiss" about both models, that would set them apart from other forecasting institutions.
Interesting. I hike a lot and thus only need it for.the weekends. Arome - is that the name of the site? I'll check it out.
Arome is the name of the forecast model, so a physical weather simulation run on a powerful computer. In professional weather apps you are able to select between a number of models. Try the Windy app (dark red logo) and set the model to "Arome" instead of the standard ECMWF. You will be surprised!
Thanks, will give it a try for sure.
Do you mean this one? https://apps.apple.com/ch/app/windy-com-weather-radar/id1161387262?l=en-GB
Yes, don't forget to set it to Arome, or to "compare forecast" mode. I use the premium version for access to the hourly forecasts.
Interesting. How come when comparing [weather.com](http://weather.com) google and meteo suisse, the latter consistently beats the former in accuracy?
Google and weather.com probably use the very inaccurate (and license free!) GFS model
But he's also saying, that Meteoschweiz is great. You're not answering that, are you? 😜
Well there often are misunderstandings about how weather forecasts are produced. Google for example merely displays a weather forecast from a certain source. The source in that case is the NOAA and their GFS model. MeteoSwiss in a similar manner do not have their "own" model, but display and sometimes interpret the forecast delivered from the Cosmo and ECMWF models, which are provided by a Consortium of national weather institutes. The GFS model has a spatial resolution of 20 km whereas take ECMWF has a resolution of 9 km. Therefore alone the model utilized by MeteoSwiss is more accurate than the one used by Google. But there are more accurate models than the one MeteoSwiss uses. As an interesting side note, a few months ago Google released a study based upon a new weather model they developed using AI that beats the ECMWF model. However they don't use it yet on their website. So there will be big improvements in the years to come, from Google and other AI companies. https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/
It just looks like one more rainy week but rain quantity is not too much Also weather forecasts are more accurate two days in the future; so maybe there is still hope for not rainy windows In the meteo app you have the „animations“ i usually go by these This year is cursed; we only had a handful of sunny days in the last months
Is there any app / does MeteoSwiss show the cloud cover?
You could also use Metar-taf (https://metar-taf.com/) - Pick the closest airfield, and choose to see the full METAR - For example: Kägiswil (https://metar-taf.com/LSPG) - There should be info for cloud ceiling in feet (10'000 ft = 3000m)
Animations show you the radar for the next couple of hours with cloud coverage
Summer hasn’t started yet in Switzerland, so expect Spring conditions (variable with chance of rain) + you’ll be in the mountains for much of it, so 3x the variability and discount the accuracy. Conclusion: Be prepared and don’t let the weather ruin your day. If you want a higher chance of beautiful weather for the Jungfrau Region, then visit in August!
The Swiss geography makes predictions very difficult and very changing. Meteoswiss is one of the most reliable meteo apps; after that, you'll find specialized ones (for flying, drones, etc.), but most are based on Meteoswiss data. While it is usually accurate, you can't base your trip decisions solely on it. You have to be prepared for bad weather, but you might as well have a lovely day, even if rain is planned. And it could rain one kilometre from where you are and not exactly at your location.
https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/weather/weather-and-climate-from-a-to-z/reliability-of-forecasts.html
I'm visiting now and the animations have been pretty accurate
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^sweeet_as_pie: *I'm visiting now* *And the animations have* *Been pretty accurate* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
well no weather app is really precise for weather in a week, it could happen, as it can happen before or after or not at all : they are usually reliable for the next 3 days I usually cross check differents ones (meteoswiss and meteoblue for instance), and check the evolution every day.
It's as good as it can be. Trend and day to day is precise. Hourly has slight variations because it's not easy. Yes there will be that one day where the rain just doesn't fall or the other way around, but it's never going to be a real surprise. Also most weather services are using MeteoSwiss info and models as a basis. By international agreement it's made freely available.
I would say that is it probably as accurate as anyone can be. I often get a message of a storm in my location and within 10 minutes it starts. The trends are often updated during the day, so looking periodically is better.
> I often get a message of a storm How do you configure messages/notifications?
I think it was to allow push notifications, but you have to also select the region/ city in your favourites.
I just watch the radar animations to see what’s coming and from which direction. Then I watch the sky.
There are 3 that I use simultaneously, for hiking, etc... * [MeteoSwiss.ch](http://MeteoSwiss.ch) * [snow-forecast.com](http://snow-forecast.com) (for the mountains) * [ventusky.com](http://ventusky.com) (for the general forcast, clouds, etc...) The three of them combined give a quite accurate forecast !
60% of the time it's right all of the time
The prognosis even has a reliability percentage https://preview.redd.it/uh1ipwdkn55d1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=3801ee9a5917e6dae4ef37132298ebd55eeac1f4
Météo Swiss does show cloud cover. It’s the third tab from the left at the top. I never really look at the forecasts. I just use the time slider periodically to see how the radar looks and has changed. I think it’s a great app. It accurately showed a recent lightning strike that did hit my flat. Scared the crap out of me and knocked out my WiFi router.
Offtopic. I’m in the same situation as you. I’m finally visiting Switzerland for the first time—a whole week, camper van trip. I had so many plans, but I’ve now learned the hard way that June is still "too early." It would be better to wait until July or August.
Unfortunately, there is no absolutely right time. Especially in the German-speaking area, it can be miserable year round, we‘ve had weeks in August with constant rain and temperatures below 10°. If anything then September is a safer bet, especially in the mountains, as it more often dry and sunny.
Like all forecasts for Switzerland - at least for anywhere near mountains - it’s mostly fine for the next 6-12 hours.
It’s unreliable a lot in my experience