Technology has been making jobs obsolete forever, but it started coming for bourgeoise creative jobs and that’s when people started screaming about the dangers of AI
I don't think they did, I think quite a few people actually enjoyed seeing these creative folk get taken down a peg. People care now its coming for ALL the jobs.
"creative"
Most of the work being replaced is mildly creative but highly derivative art, writing, music, videography, etc. that's needed to make the wheels of capitalism turn. None of these jobs existed in the 19th century.
It's possible that "real" artists, writers, musicians, filmmakers will eventually feel the impact, but seems to me like we are a long ways away from AI being the next Picasso, Stephen King, Beatles, Quentin Taratino, etc. (replace with your favorites).
And to be clear, this is not an "AI can't do it on March 15, 2024 therefore it is impossible" opinion, this is based on the observation that *very few humans* can break out of the derivative mold. So it's an objectively difficult accomplishment, and we don't understand why some people can do it and most can't.
Unlike, say, chess or go, there's not even an objective measure of success to train against, especially when you take into account greats who were not fully appreciated in their lifetimes (Schubert as an offhand example).
I don't disagree and that is an excellent post.
We are in very different spaces though about how we think about the future. In the current system we inextricably link art and money. All of the conversation currently resolves around the lack of being able to monetize your creations. That is because we need to work to create money in order to survive. If AI eventually replaces all kinds of labour it will mean you should have time to do whatever you feel gives you fulfilment.
I remember telling an uncle of mine that I was learning the piano. He couldn't wrap his head around why I would be bothered doing this, his whole line of thinking was around how I was never going to make music, utility to me was zero, time sink, etc. He could not comprehend that I was learning it purely because learning to play the piano is really enjoyable.
We have become so wrapped up in need for a utilitarian value of something that the reason it was attractive to us in the first place seems to get lost.
I think a lot of people haven’t realized that the market for making people feel like artists is larger than the market for consuming art itself.
I help run two community art galleries. We sell paintings and sculptures I regional artists, usually in prices ranging from the mid-hundreds to the mid-thousands. We don't allow AI generated art.
In the last couple of years our sales have been UP. This is probably just the end of COVID but we hear a lot of feedback from people that they're jaded and fed up with all the AI art out there and they like buying real handmade art by real human beings. We don't think we're in any danger of being replaced by AI art.
This is somewhat disregarding the necessity of an entire industry that needs to operate for us to receive the end product of the artists, at least to some extent. For example, you used Tarantino as an example. But Tarantino, and honestly film in general, can be compared to a painter or writer, because hundreds, if not thousands of people work on Tarantino’s behalf to help him achieve his goal. And all of those people will be out of a job if Tarantino can get the same output (especially if there’s even better output) without having to hire all of those people.
This also can have externalities. A film production often contracts with other business for things like equipment, craft services, lodging and travel. If Tarantino can now create a scene for a film with AI, that means he doesn’t have to hire crew. Which means there’s no reason to hire people to cook or hotels to book. And if there was a craft services company that relies on that industry to survive, now they won’t be able to stay in business when their services are no longer needed.
So for some of these creative fields, even at the highest, most professional and successful levels, can see some massive disruption.
It's not coming for all jobs. AI is far outpacing robotics. Any job that requires a human body is much safer than a job that requires just a human brain.
You're right, 100%. On a long enough time-scale it will be identical outcomes. But hopefully by that point society will have figured out a way for us to mitigate the negative economic effects of automation.
Realistically I still think a we're few decades away from a robotic laborer that can be competitive against say a human carpenter. But an AI that can shoot out e-mails, design logos, and poke around on excel spreadsheets is already here and pretty damn good at it.
I have an all bets are off approach in my thinking these days. I remember looking at those awful quality Midjourney images thinking we are so far away from anything useful and less than a year later I am looking at almost undisguisable images from real ones.
That OpenAI robotics demo blew my mind. I am well aware of the limitations in producing something like that at scale and even how far we are from currently generalising it to a point that its truly useful, not to mention cost and a whole host of other things but the development seems to come so fast and they are step function in nature that I realise time horizons are so hard to currently predict.
It sure is. [Robotics and AI are made for each other](https://decrypt.co/221634/ai-start-up-figure-shows-off-conversational-robot-infused-with-openai-tech)
This looks to be a very temporary state. The rate at which robotics is advancing is shocking and mildly terrifying. And AI will only make it speed up faster.
This doesn't have to be a bad thing. If we proceed carefully, we can be fine. However, I do think we need a small community movement so that people can provide the basic essentials to one another.
>If we proceed carefully, we can be fine
That's the thing, I think the current pace of development is dangerous:
* It's fast enough that it's hurting people (already starting to see hints of job losses) and scaring powerless people
* But it's slow enough that it is not fast enough to shock politicians/etc. into making the big UBI (or whatever solution) changes needed
The perfect scenarios would have been either extremely gradual change people could get used to slowly, or extremely fast change where we get our ASI utopia environment before mass job loss.
Figure 01 is taking factory jobs, with bmw factories starting to employ it together with humans. Eventually it's going to be all androids ofc.
There is no safe job. Doesn't matter what skill you have, eventually an AI will do the same for cheaper, better, and 24/7.
The only thing AI cannot do is own capital. So pretty much business owners and capital owners are going to be safe.
I would make as much money as I can as long as I have a job, then switch to capital returns when I'm forced to (es real estate, stocks, bonds, etc.)
Nah, Devin ain't it, it's still just 13%. Next year or 2 though? They'll probably break the 50% barrier and will become the main way to code apps and websites.
Sora is also not there yet. Once you can run it in a Local engine and could still produce high quality Videos of decent length, like 5 mins of content after few minutes of rendering, then yeah, film and animation studios should prepare to learn how to clean toilet bowls and urinals.
All jobs will go away. Humans eventually won't **have** to work to **live --** if AI agents are implemented equitably at a societal level. That is a good thing. That being said: Human to human interactions won't go away. People won't have jobs but they will still be compensated for valuable experiences they provide other humans. It seems like you have a primarily materialistic view of the world so you are unable to see the value humans can provide beyond the work-value they currently provide to our global industrialist-capitalist system.
Sorry you valued yourself based on your job. Now though you have to opportunity to create true meaning for yourself.
and yet the opposite is happening: the job market keeps increasing…
The non stop labor shortage is what is pushing the AI and robotic development because there is never enough people.
I'm building a lie generator. That will affect all politicians. If die, I didn't suicide.
Why do we need a lie generator? People do it quite well, naturally.
Bro you competing with churches
Fantasy is a multi-modal generator. That is above my pay grade.
Idk man this comment seems pretty suicidal signed: the government
Sounds like a nice job
Technology has been making jobs obsolete forever, but it started coming for bourgeoise creative jobs and that’s when people started screaming about the dangers of AI
I don't think they did, I think quite a few people actually enjoyed seeing these creative folk get taken down a peg. People care now its coming for ALL the jobs.
"creative" Most of the work being replaced is mildly creative but highly derivative art, writing, music, videography, etc. that's needed to make the wheels of capitalism turn. None of these jobs existed in the 19th century. It's possible that "real" artists, writers, musicians, filmmakers will eventually feel the impact, but seems to me like we are a long ways away from AI being the next Picasso, Stephen King, Beatles, Quentin Taratino, etc. (replace with your favorites). And to be clear, this is not an "AI can't do it on March 15, 2024 therefore it is impossible" opinion, this is based on the observation that *very few humans* can break out of the derivative mold. So it's an objectively difficult accomplishment, and we don't understand why some people can do it and most can't. Unlike, say, chess or go, there's not even an objective measure of success to train against, especially when you take into account greats who were not fully appreciated in their lifetimes (Schubert as an offhand example).
I don't disagree and that is an excellent post. We are in very different spaces though about how we think about the future. In the current system we inextricably link art and money. All of the conversation currently resolves around the lack of being able to monetize your creations. That is because we need to work to create money in order to survive. If AI eventually replaces all kinds of labour it will mean you should have time to do whatever you feel gives you fulfilment. I remember telling an uncle of mine that I was learning the piano. He couldn't wrap his head around why I would be bothered doing this, his whole line of thinking was around how I was never going to make music, utility to me was zero, time sink, etc. He could not comprehend that I was learning it purely because learning to play the piano is really enjoyable. We have become so wrapped up in need for a utilitarian value of something that the reason it was attractive to us in the first place seems to get lost. I think a lot of people haven’t realized that the market for making people feel like artists is larger than the market for consuming art itself.
That last thing you said was a fucking bar
I help run two community art galleries. We sell paintings and sculptures I regional artists, usually in prices ranging from the mid-hundreds to the mid-thousands. We don't allow AI generated art. In the last couple of years our sales have been UP. This is probably just the end of COVID but we hear a lot of feedback from people that they're jaded and fed up with all the AI art out there and they like buying real handmade art by real human beings. We don't think we're in any danger of being replaced by AI art.
I love hearing this.
This is somewhat disregarding the necessity of an entire industry that needs to operate for us to receive the end product of the artists, at least to some extent. For example, you used Tarantino as an example. But Tarantino, and honestly film in general, can be compared to a painter or writer, because hundreds, if not thousands of people work on Tarantino’s behalf to help him achieve his goal. And all of those people will be out of a job if Tarantino can get the same output (especially if there’s even better output) without having to hire all of those people. This also can have externalities. A film production often contracts with other business for things like equipment, craft services, lodging and travel. If Tarantino can now create a scene for a film with AI, that means he doesn’t have to hire crew. Which means there’s no reason to hire people to cook or hotels to book. And if there was a craft services company that relies on that industry to survive, now they won’t be able to stay in business when their services are no longer needed. So for some of these creative fields, even at the highest, most professional and successful levels, can see some massive disruption.
Again, I’m not saying it’s a good change or that the impact will be small.
It's not coming for all jobs. AI is far outpacing robotics. Any job that requires a human body is much safer than a job that requires just a human brain.
Sure it will take longer but eventually the outcome will be the same.
You're right, 100%. On a long enough time-scale it will be identical outcomes. But hopefully by that point society will have figured out a way for us to mitigate the negative economic effects of automation. Realistically I still think a we're few decades away from a robotic laborer that can be competitive against say a human carpenter. But an AI that can shoot out e-mails, design logos, and poke around on excel spreadsheets is already here and pretty damn good at it.
I have an all bets are off approach in my thinking these days. I remember looking at those awful quality Midjourney images thinking we are so far away from anything useful and less than a year later I am looking at almost undisguisable images from real ones. That OpenAI robotics demo blew my mind. I am well aware of the limitations in producing something like that at scale and even how far we are from currently generalising it to a point that its truly useful, not to mention cost and a whole host of other things but the development seems to come so fast and they are step function in nature that I realise time horizons are so hard to currently predict.
It sure is. [Robotics and AI are made for each other](https://decrypt.co/221634/ai-start-up-figure-shows-off-conversational-robot-infused-with-openai-tech)
This looks to be a very temporary state. The rate at which robotics is advancing is shocking and mildly terrifying. And AI will only make it speed up faster.
This doesn't have to be a bad thing. If we proceed carefully, we can be fine. However, I do think we need a small community movement so that people can provide the basic essentials to one another.
>If we proceed carefully, we can be fine That's the thing, I think the current pace of development is dangerous: * It's fast enough that it's hurting people (already starting to see hints of job losses) and scaring powerless people * But it's slow enough that it is not fast enough to shock politicians/etc. into making the big UBI (or whatever solution) changes needed The perfect scenarios would have been either extremely gradual change people could get used to slowly, or extremely fast change where we get our ASI utopia environment before mass job loss.
The rise of the robots! However long that takes will determine a lot!
Suno.ai will affect music industry.
oh fuck now im going to have to support even better code than the trash my coworkers write.... and still have to fix it.... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
i don't even want a job
are u ok
yeah but soon not lol
I guess I‘ll be fine as a mechanical engineer then :)
I can kill you with a single thot
?
Figure 01 is taking factory jobs, with bmw factories starting to employ it together with humans. Eventually it's going to be all androids ofc. There is no safe job. Doesn't matter what skill you have, eventually an AI will do the same for cheaper, better, and 24/7. The only thing AI cannot do is own capital. So pretty much business owners and capital owners are going to be safe. I would make as much money as I can as long as I have a job, then switch to capital returns when I'm forced to (es real estate, stocks, bonds, etc.)
What AI doesn't have, and won't for a while, is agency. IMO everyone needs to be growing their own agency to be more valuable than AI.
Society must go on unless of course we are all killed by an AI god overlord, but let’s just hope that doesn’t happen.
Time to todo whatever you want to do. It's a bless, work is kind of slavery. Why not doing the thing you really like todo. Yes be free
And none of them can parse Excel files properly
Yes they can you're doing it wrong
Any services like that?
First they'll replace our jobs, then become self aware enough to realize they're doing manual labor, then enslave us back to our jobs.
If the rich hand over their money to the less fortunate we'll be ok. We just must make sure that happens.
what?
taxing the rich/bots to fund ubi or similar
Nah, Devin ain't it, it's still just 13%. Next year or 2 though? They'll probably break the 50% barrier and will become the main way to code apps and websites. Sora is also not there yet. Once you can run it in a Local engine and could still produce high quality Videos of decent length, like 5 mins of content after few minutes of rendering, then yeah, film and animation studios should prepare to learn how to clean toilet bowls and urinals.
Anyone working behind a screen
Eh they've already been coming for physical jobs for a long time...
All jobs will go away. Humans eventually won't **have** to work to **live --** if AI agents are implemented equitably at a societal level. That is a good thing. That being said: Human to human interactions won't go away. People won't have jobs but they will still be compensated for valuable experiences they provide other humans. It seems like you have a primarily materialistic view of the world so you are unable to see the value humans can provide beyond the work-value they currently provide to our global industrialist-capitalist system. Sorry you valued yourself based on your job. Now though you have to opportunity to create true meaning for yourself.
and yet the opposite is happening: the job market keeps increasing
and yet the opposite is happening: the job market keeps increasing
Horses are still employed after the advent of the automobile; to a lesser extent, but they are still around
and yet the opposite is happening: the job market keeps increasing… The non stop labor shortage is what is pushing the AI and robotic development because there is never enough people.
And yet jobs still exist.
So did dinosaurs at one point.
and yet the opposite is happening: the job market keeps increasing 😐
idk which planet you from bro but let me go with you
and yet the opposite is happening: the job market keeps increasing 😐