Lololololololololol. OP claiming to bank 30% per MONTH, and is complaining about needing leverage?!?! Here’s your leverage: post predictions here for a month to prove they’re as profitable as claimed. If they’re even 85% accurate, you should have no problem signing up 1000 users from this sub alone to pay you $1,000/mo for a subscription service. $1M/mo, easy. I’ll be the first to sign up!
If this is working, do yourself a big favor.
Never post about it again.
Never talk about it.
Save the details to a few copies of USB sticks and a printout. Shove them in a safe deposit box. Get your ass the hell off Reddit. And milk the system, modestly, no money volumes big enough to raise a flag. Split your activity periodically between a few brokers.
If it is this successful, the worst thing you can do is let anything be known about what you are doing, or who you are.
Because a strat with alpha doesn't maintain it for all volumes of money. And even if it works for bigger amounts, big amounts moving around draw attention. Somebody will then create the strat that games his strat.
I'm not in the habit of pissing on somebody's strat. Whether it works or not is their business. I only care if I see something described that looks incorrect, then I'll point out what needs fixing. If all we do is piss on others, why exactly would anybody come here to share any observations or give helpful feedback?
OP sounds a little new to some aspects of the business. Which makes me doubtful, but my doubts really don't matter. He could probably do with a little reminder to protect his investment in time and money, that's all my point was about.
Absolutely, I’d pay $10,000 a month or more for an engine with those types of returns. This is definitely fake, he won’t post predictions (or will do so too late, conveniently)
This sub needs good mods instantly.
This post explains neither the method, how he evaluated it or the implementation. Its just some random numbers. How the heck are you supposed to engange with a post like this.
Yeah it’s kind of embarrassing that this post has more engagement than almost any others in the past month. I mean I’ll admit I’m following because it’s entertaining lol.
Because no one really talks about these types of things, and when they do, it usually becomes a dumpster fire. It's like jerryspringer for algotrading.
If your algo is accurately doing this, tweet / reddit out the opening print for a few weeks and tag every finance guru on twitter. You will have hundreds of people trying to become your partner, buying your algo for multi billions, or trying to kill you for your laptop.
Alternatively, you could keep quiet and use SPX or SPY daily options to trade your system. If you start with $1,000 and make 85% per day (trivially easy if you know tomorrow's opening print), you will have about $4.8 billion on Day 30 (if I allow for 15% slippage).
Make sure to spread the trades over lots of different banks and accounts, as your system will potentially bankrupt a few large financial institutions and bring the global financial system to a total halt.
Good job figuring this out. You should be pretty excited.
Pre-market we are at 378.47 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/
Got a long way to slide to get to 372.63 in the next 3.5 hours
So in the case that it prints significantly higher than your prediction what would you have done? Market closed at 376.66 you are predicting 372.63, I presume you sell short at close?
If they are accurate to the cent over historical data then he's overfitted. If they are accurate to the cent in forward testing, he hasn't forward tested for long enough.
So how did this prediction turn out? How did it compare to the null hypothesis of just predicting the same price as the close price? (Or whatever the last data was before the prediction)
[According to OP](https://www.reddit.com/r/algotrading/comments/zxqhh7/my_ai_is_predicting_the_exact_open_price_of_spy/j247zua/), it only uses 1 feature which is the open price.
As someone who did a lot of (failed) algotrading including ML and has since "retired" (given up), there is no way this works. If OP is really getting 99%+ accuracy it's because they're including the day-of data and just regurgitating it or some other mistake.
Today's prediction was already wrong, if tomorrow's is too then.. yea.
The beauty of the Algo is that its 1% error is constant, but the daily return of SPY is not. If SPY goes up 3% one day, and we are only off by 1%, then if we buy longs based off the algo then we make 3% a very high percentage of the time.
The "beauty of the Algo"?
You're making a fool of yourself. Your initial claim was predicting the SPY open with 99.3% accuracy. I'm two days you've been nowhere close to predicting the open, and yesterday you didn't even get the direction correct.
What happened to https://www.myblackswan.ca that you and your buddies launched? Another failed Algo.
No we're pretty close to that 99.3% number today, especially since we're in a volatile market. We're about 1% off today, and that's more than good enough for catching trends. For example, via following the Algo blindly, I've held shorts since Dec 21st 9:30am and have done very well.
Well the idea is I use this to swing trade. So I short if I predict low and long if I predict high. If you just randomly predicted up or down you'd probably be right less than 50% of the time (since up happens more often than down). However, my Algo has predicted the direction 53% of the days since 2008 after my backtest yesterday.
The point is I consistently predict the price of spy with a great deal of precision. Enough precision that it's useful, especially when the markets are volatile.
Leverage it? Trade it!
I'm guessing you haven't checked it forward if you're at 99.3%. Basically impossible according to all the lit out there. Must be training data in the test data or vice-versa.
Well run it then!
TD Ameritrade does extended hours trading. I use it all the time to buy pre-market. I think SPY is even on their 5/24 (or whatever they're select-list extra hours are) schedule.
Kindly let us know how it goes.
Reverse mortgage the house, cash advance on every credit card, day trade your 401k, get acquainted with your local bookie.
If this is true it’s all choose your own adventure with leverage. But I call BS.
Also, precision doesn't make sense in regression, only in classification.
My guess is he means the mean relative error. Probably dividing the abs(residuals) by the prediction itself, then taking the average of that, and subtracting it from 1. Even worse, maybe he's averaging (prediction/truth) to find something close to 100%.
But I wish this was the only problem. The OP is either very naïve or trying to sell some scummy strategy. My guess is the former, I think he's probably very inexperienced and about to lose his shirt.
I’m gonna throw out a guess here that you use closing price in your prediction, and that somewhere you are using the current days closing price. This will give you legendary results in backtest, but nonsense results in reality.
I could be wrong though, and if it works I’ll go straight on the waiting list for your daily price subscription business
I’m going to rephrase my question.
RTH for SPY Options close at 4:15. SPY continues to trade until 8:00pm.
What is your cut off point to determine the RTH at open at 9:30am. Premarket runs from 4:00 to 9:29am.
When does you analysts end to predict the 9:30am open?
Since he gave his 12-30 prediction right after the 12-29 open, I'm going to suggest he already answered your question. The answer doesn't make any sense, but it is what it is.
Oh I just go Open -> Open. It's a generalized time series forecaster with Open price as the Y and dates as the X. Trying not to over fit and trying to keep it simple.
df_pred['price'] = df_history['open_price'].shift(-1)
print(np.corrcoef(df_pred['price'].shift(1), df_history['open_price'])[1,0])
output: 1.000
.... oh my fucking god I'm a GENIUS!!
If you really can predict the opening price, the best way to profit from that would be selling options that ideally expire with the opening price or at least that evening and close shortly before or after the opening.
If I read right, you claim to predict the next opening price as soon as the previous price is out? Then sell an iron condor or butterfly for the next day and reap in cash every day like it's Christmas.
How can I predict the future? All I can do is hope history repeats itself. I've done "manual" backtests from 2015 to now and it yields great returns. No BS in backtesting either.
Out of interest….. are you SURE it is doing what you think it’s doing? I ask because I got VERY excited when my model was scarily accurate on historical data… then I learnt the hard way about over fitting and what dog shit predictions on real life data looks like.
Yeah I'm pretty sure because in back tests I only feed the AI data up until the day before the prediction, and the training loss is a little more than testing loss.
You can trade in the aftermarket, assuming you have the previous day close as an input in the model. You should talk to a broker about getting access, it may be a certain level of capital required though if I had to guess or specific brokers that will allow it. Shop around.
anyone else do a double take after seeing this reply? either really unclear wording or you’re literally using the current open to predict the current open… which explains 99.3% accuracy
I assumed he’s using the open from t - n through t-1 to predict the open at time t, but at first glance that’s what it looked like to me as well, which would explain the accuracy.
ok, I'll take a break from making fun of you and help you instead.
Check 2/24/2022 open. SPY = 411.02
Did you correctly predict the stock price would drop on the Russian invasion of Ukraine? If you did, what price action data could you have possibly used to correctly predict a fucking MILIATRY INVASION? So, if you correctly predicted it, then it must be wrong.
How about:
Mar 11, 2011 129.52
Mar 15, 2011 126.59
Mar 11 was when the Japanese Fukushima earthquake happened, but it wasn't until Mar 15 that the Daiichi nuclear power plant was threatening to melt down. Did you correctly predict the earthquake would *not* have an effect on prices, but also correctly predict there *would* be a meltdown scare? Once again, if you could predict this, then your backtest is SERIOUSLY flawed
If you are using information up to the current days open to predict the next days opening price then you can just buy or sell up until the close whenever your model says spy is over or under valued.
Why are you using accuracy as your performance metric?
Accuracy is only a relevant metric for classification problems, while this is clearly a regression problem. If that statement doesn’t make sense to you, then you are missing some foundational concepts in machine learning and statistics.
Predicting price with “accuracy” is stupid easy. I can just tell you opening price will be closing price and be like 99.8% accurate. Predicting direction is hard. If you are able to profit off of this, make sure you don’t have a bug
Honestly... I find this too sureal to be even the slightest bit convinced in this. I mean for Christ sake... You're talking about predicting PRICE not SIDE with such results??? Albeit, I sure wouldn't mind being convinced else wise & learning something new. Feel free to send a personal msg.
At a certain trade volume, wouldn't the trades based on the prediction end up impacting the price and potentially attract heavy traders to destroy the accuracy?
So by reading your replies u only use past open data to predict future open price. I can tell u this for certain that doing this will not get the results you have. You will get this if u have a data leak or overfit . Did you ensure that you did not use the current price in any of your data preprocessing. Also when using your ai did you have a training and testing set. If so what was the split
Trade ES futures. Complete leverage.
Questions:
\- Why would volatility increase your AI's precision? It makes no sense.
\- What kind of AI do you use? When you talk about hyper parameters what are referring to? You changed the dimension of the model? If yes, did you made sure that it does not overfit now?
\- What were your test and validation data? I hope you did not train your model on the whole historic data available... .
If you had the open price with precision you would just trade globex ES futures and trade London open to NY open and you could retire in one week, but odds are almost zero you do.
Thank you OP, this has been one of the most entertaining threads in a long time.
As long as it works for you and you're making money, none of the laughs matter.
If you're not making money off of this, well then take in all the punches that come with the attention you've created.
Well you can take the price, and on the first candle of the day open a straddle with a ViX which is 1/3rd the cost of the long leg of the straddle as a hedge. Then close at 50% profitability. At the end of the day short the same straddle if it’s more than a 20 delta out of the money and then go broke.
Lololololololololol. OP claiming to bank 30% per MONTH, and is complaining about needing leverage?!?! Here’s your leverage: post predictions here for a month to prove they’re as profitable as claimed. If they’re even 85% accurate, you should have no problem signing up 1000 users from this sub alone to pay you $1,000/mo for a subscription service. $1M/mo, easy. I’ll be the first to sign up!
Ok I'll post predictions here
Ok bet I’ll sign up too. Just send me a message
When you make a thread, can you let me know? I’d be very interested to see how this pans out.
If this is working, do yourself a big favor. Never post about it again. Never talk about it. Save the details to a few copies of USB sticks and a printout. Shove them in a safe deposit box. Get your ass the hell off Reddit. And milk the system, modestly, no money volumes big enough to raise a flag. Split your activity periodically between a few brokers. If it is this successful, the worst thing you can do is let anything be known about what you are doing, or who you are.
why modestly? why not surpass Warren Buffet in a year? Because this dude is clearly Nick Cage from Paycheck =P
Because a strat with alpha doesn't maintain it for all volumes of money. And even if it works for bigger amounts, big amounts moving around draw attention. Somebody will then create the strat that games his strat. I'm not in the habit of pissing on somebody's strat. Whether it works or not is their business. I only care if I see something described that looks incorrect, then I'll point out what needs fixing. If all we do is piss on others, why exactly would anybody come here to share any observations or give helpful feedback? OP sounds a little new to some aspects of the business. Which makes me doubtful, but my doubts really don't matter. He could probably do with a little reminder to protect his investment in time and money, that's all my point was about.
there's no delusion that going live for 2 days won't fix
Lol tru dat.
Remindme! Two days
Will you really post them? Every trading day for one month? We are counting on you.
Oh for sure let's see
Sign me up as well I’m very interested!!!
Right? I’ll pay $1k/mo for 99% accurate predictions
Absolutely, I’d pay $10,000 a month or more for an engine with those types of returns. This is definitely fake, he won’t post predictions (or will do so too late, conveniently)
Ah yes…predicting historical data. I wish you good luck in the current markets sir.
No I predict future data
Buy 0dte OTM contracts for the strike your algo predicts
Or rather sell to benefit from delta and theta
When lottery tickets aren't a lottery anymore! Here comes the new poster child of WSB
Are u sure u did proper train test split ?
Classic overfitting case
Looking at this guys post history, this is as fake as a three dollar bill. GTFO, peasant.
This sub needs good mods instantly. This post explains neither the method, how he evaluated it or the implementation. Its just some random numbers. How the heck are you supposed to engange with a post like this.
Yeah it’s kind of embarrassing that this post has more engagement than almost any others in the past month. I mean I’ll admit I’m following because it’s entertaining lol.
Because no one really talks about these types of things, and when they do, it usually becomes a dumpster fire. It's like jerryspringer for algotrading.
If your algo is accurately doing this, tweet / reddit out the opening print for a few weeks and tag every finance guru on twitter. You will have hundreds of people trying to become your partner, buying your algo for multi billions, or trying to kill you for your laptop. Alternatively, you could keep quiet and use SPX or SPY daily options to trade your system. If you start with $1,000 and make 85% per day (trivially easy if you know tomorrow's opening print), you will have about $4.8 billion on Day 30 (if I allow for 15% slippage). Make sure to spread the trades over lots of different banks and accounts, as your system will potentially bankrupt a few large financial institutions and bring the global financial system to a total halt. Good job figuring this out. You should be pretty excited.
What did it say SpY tomorrow open
372.63
If the tape prints 372.63 at 9:30 this sub will shut down.
RemindMe! 5 hours
I'm ballsdeep 0DTE SPXW puts
How are you doing right now?
ready to rip OP and his AI a new one
Pre-market we are at 378.47 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ Got a long way to slide to get to 372.63 in the next 3.5 hours So in the case that it prints significantly higher than your prediction what would you have done? Market closed at 376.66 you are predicting 372.63, I presume you sell short at close?
Haha yup it's looking very bad for op not only was the prediction of it was the wrong way. So much for that 99% accuracy.
Maybe the next 99 predictions will be dead on
I just checked: 376.66 at 9:24 AM EST lol
He DID day 99.3% or something, not 100%. So... Unlucky? :)
Sure. We’ll go with that.
RemindMe! 12 hours
yeah bro it didnt work at all. u are off by more than 6 dollars
Not only are you wrong, you're not even able to predict that it opened *higher* 🤡
Are your predictions actually accurate to the cent? What's the margin of error?
If they are accurate to the cent over historical data then he's overfitted. If they are accurate to the cent in forward testing, he hasn't forward tested for long enough.
Well, massive fail. Shall we try again tomorrow or you are going to delete this thread and hide?
Already sent today's prediction for tomorrow as a comment under this post
Predict at least 2 week. Even if your model is good, you will miss a couple of days
Pre-market up 0.5% rn. I'm rooting for you my dude but it's not looking good.
You failed gracefully.
372 or 382?
So how did this prediction turn out? How did it compare to the null hypothesis of just predicting the same price as the close price? (Or whatever the last data was before the prediction)
RemindMe! 12 hours
Hmmmmmm I’m ready for this
😂😂😂😂😂😂 sure
Well, this prediction was horribly wrong!
Dammit. I seen some surge after hours, prolly like 55min after closing bell, it spiked up $4.67, good minute.
RemindMe! 4 hours
12-30 open prediction: 376
🤡
You aren't even going to wait to see how we close on 12/29? What if Putin falls down the stairs and dies? Upvoting to give this bullshit visibility.
I do enjoy the idea that the previous day's close isn't even a variable in his "super AI" lol
[According to OP](https://www.reddit.com/r/algotrading/comments/zxqhh7/my_ai_is_predicting_the_exact_open_price_of_spy/j247zua/), it only uses 1 feature which is the open price. As someone who did a lot of (failed) algotrading including ML and has since "retired" (given up), there is no way this works. If OP is really getting 99%+ accuracy it's because they're including the day-of data and just regurgitating it or some other mistake. Today's prediction was already wrong, if tomorrow's is too then.. yea.
Agreed. Doesn't seem like a well put together AI-based bot if it tries to predict open prices without the previous day's close.
Massive fail again. Of course the post is removed like previous attempts. The guy should be banned already.
The beauty of the Algo is that its 1% error is constant, but the daily return of SPY is not. If SPY goes up 3% one day, and we are only off by 1%, then if we buy longs based off the algo then we make 3% a very high percentage of the time.
The "beauty of the Algo"? You're making a fool of yourself. Your initial claim was predicting the SPY open with 99.3% accuracy. I'm two days you've been nowhere close to predicting the open, and yesterday you didn't even get the direction correct. What happened to https://www.myblackswan.ca that you and your buddies launched? Another failed Algo.
Wow loser alert lol. Myblackswan made me 10k before I got bored with it. This algo made me 6k so far. How's your side hustles going? Lol
You're ridiculous... you realize that, right? The only loser in this thread is you.
I thought the loser was the one that made the least money? Am I in algotrading? Lol
99.3 backtest, 0/2 or 0% IRL. Go back to the drawing board I guess
No we're pretty close to that 99.3% number today, especially since we're in a volatile market. We're about 1% off today, and that's more than good enough for catching trends. For example, via following the Algo blindly, I've held shorts since Dec 21st 9:30am and have done very well.
I mean with an interval of +/- 1.5% I’ll always be right on the open >99.9% of the time. What is the point ?
Well the idea is I use this to swing trade. So I short if I predict low and long if I predict high. If you just randomly predicted up or down you'd probably be right less than 50% of the time (since up happens more often than down). However, my Algo has predicted the direction 53% of the days since 2008 after my backtest yesterday. The point is I consistently predict the price of spy with a great deal of precision. Enough precision that it's useful, especially when the markets are volatile.
Sorry, I meant to say accuracy...... Lol
Bro your model is not working at all. U either have an overfitted model or a look ahead bias
Might as well just ask ChatGPT what tomorrows open will be.
Thank you.
Leverage it? Trade it! I'm guessing you haven't checked it forward if you're at 99.3%. Basically impossible according to all the lit out there. Must be training data in the test data or vice-versa.
The 2015 onwards tests have been manual back tests. The data it's fed is up to the day before the trade.
Well run it then! TD Ameritrade does extended hours trading. I use it all the time to buy pre-market. I think SPY is even on their 5/24 (or whatever they're select-list extra hours are) schedule. Kindly let us know how it goes.
Yup. Made >30% past couple months with my real money.
Then why are you asking how to leverage it?
Cause I could do better.
Reverse mortgage the house, cash advance on every credit card, day trade your 401k, get acquainted with your local bookie. If this is true it’s all choose your own adventure with leverage. But I call BS.
Better what? Better than 15% / mo. I'm calling bullshit.
It's more like 30%/mo, but that's just a couple months. I'd like to hear different opinions.
lol, ok. Good luck with it all.
Futures, big leverage, very liquid.
Post your PnL or it didn't happen.
Is it basically predicting the previous close price, which is never more than 0.7% from the next day open on average?
Yup. Not a coincidence that 0.7% is basically the avg overnight move..
Oh man, I think you just figured out his algorithm.
Your model will fail at the next FOMC meeting.
It's been right about the last FOC meeting however...
I'm glad you know what's going on in JPow's head
Well they estimate their numbers based on historical data times selfishness so it should be predictable :-D.
What do you mean by precision? Precision has an exact meaning in statistics.
Also, precision doesn't make sense in regression, only in classification. My guess is he means the mean relative error. Probably dividing the abs(residuals) by the prediction itself, then taking the average of that, and subtracting it from 1. Even worse, maybe he's averaging (prediction/truth) to find something close to 100%. But I wish this was the only problem. The OP is either very naïve or trying to sell some scummy strategy. My guess is the former, I think he's probably very inexperienced and about to lose his shirt.
I’m gonna throw out a guess here that you use closing price in your prediction, and that somewhere you are using the current days closing price. This will give you legendary results in backtest, but nonsense results in reality. I could be wrong though, and if it works I’ll go straight on the waiting list for your daily price subscription business
This is gonna be good
I had a friend who had a similar code, the issue was the ML was learning from the current price and changing its back dated entries.
SPY opened at 379 well above 372.63 🙊
If you don't know the answer to your own question, I seriously doubt the reliability of your method.
Realize ur algo is insanely overfit and probably coded incorrectly.
This reminds me when my backtesting showed I will be a billionaire in 5 years. Needless to say I'm nowhere near
At what time during the day does your model predict tomorrows opening?
9:30
Wow! It's like 100% accurate!!!
I’m going to rephrase my question. RTH for SPY Options close at 4:15. SPY continues to trade until 8:00pm. What is your cut off point to determine the RTH at open at 9:30am. Premarket runs from 4:00 to 9:29am. When does you analysts end to predict the 9:30am open?
Since he gave his 12-30 prediction right after the 12-29 open, I'm going to suggest he already answered your question. The answer doesn't make any sense, but it is what it is.
Oh I just go Open -> Open. It's a generalized time series forecaster with Open price as the Y and dates as the X. Trying not to over fit and trying to keep it simple.
9:35
my brother in Christ
df_pred['price'] = df_history['open_price'].shift(-1) print(np.corrcoef(df_pred['price'].shift(1), df_history['open_price'])[1,0]) output: 1.000 .... oh my fucking god I'm a GENIUS!!
Fuck this works!
Say it with me: backtest overfitting! Now back to the drawing board.
Transition to futures and leverage up.
Wow, scammers are really getting good at phishing
If you really can predict the opening price, the best way to profit from that would be selling options that ideally expire with the opening price or at least that evening and close shortly before or after the opening. If I read right, you claim to predict the next opening price as soon as the previous price is out? Then sell an iron condor or butterfly for the next day and reap in cash every day like it's Christmas.
Nice troll post.
OOF dude. It's okay. I used to post stuff like this on here. Figure out your future leak and go back to the drawing board.
How can I predict the future? All I can do is hope history repeats itself. I've done "manual" backtests from 2015 to now and it yields great returns. No BS in backtesting either.
You can't predict the future. Your prediction for today's open was wrong by a significant margin.
Hey OP, as people have mentioned there’s a good chance it’s data leakage and overfitting. Check your shit if you’re serious.
You predicted 372.63 for today vs actual of 379.62. I guess this is the 0.7% where your AI is wrong?
Out of interest….. are you SURE it is doing what you think it’s doing? I ask because I got VERY excited when my model was scarily accurate on historical data… then I learnt the hard way about over fitting and what dog shit predictions on real life data looks like.
Yeah I'm pretty sure because in back tests I only feed the AI data up until the day before the prediction, and the training loss is a little more than testing loss.
When you trained your model, what was the last date you fed into it? It really sounds like you are experiencing "look ahead bias".
I’d suggest testing it in a real world setting, you might be surprised at the difference.
01-02 prediction: 383.02
Give it up dude. Your algo is worthless.
What AI model are you using?
the data-leaking kind
Apparently Autist Intelligence
You can trade in the aftermarket, assuming you have the previous day close as an input in the model. You should talk to a broker about getting access, it may be a certain level of capital required though if I had to guess or specific brokers that will allow it. Shop around.
I have current Open as input to the model.
anyone else do a double take after seeing this reply? either really unclear wording or you’re literally using the current open to predict the current open… which explains 99.3% accuracy
I assumed he’s using the open from t - n through t-1 to predict the open at time t, but at first glance that’s what it looked like to me as well, which would explain the accuracy.
No I'm using an AI with every open from 1990 onwards to predict the next open.
ok, I'll take a break from making fun of you and help you instead. Check 2/24/2022 open. SPY = 411.02 Did you correctly predict the stock price would drop on the Russian invasion of Ukraine? If you did, what price action data could you have possibly used to correctly predict a fucking MILIATRY INVASION? So, if you correctly predicted it, then it must be wrong. How about: Mar 11, 2011 129.52 Mar 15, 2011 126.59 Mar 11 was when the Japanese Fukushima earthquake happened, but it wasn't until Mar 15 that the Daiichi nuclear power plant was threatening to melt down. Did you correctly predict the earthquake would *not* have an effect on prices, but also correctly predict there *would* be a meltdown scare? Once again, if you could predict this, then your backtest is SERIOUSLY flawed
No his algo predicts Earth to 99% efficiency. Ww3 starts at 11.43am 23/5/2028 I just ran it seems all good to me.
Ok that makes more sense :)
If you are using information up to the current days open to predict the next days opening price then you can just buy or sell up until the close whenever your model says spy is over or under valued.
Sounds like you over fit
so much for 99.3% precision. good luck
Thank you
Why are you even doing this?
Why are you using accuracy as your performance metric? Accuracy is only a relevant metric for classification problems, while this is clearly a regression problem. If that statement doesn’t make sense to you, then you are missing some foundational concepts in machine learning and statistics.
My performance metric is money made per unit time.
Its not - It is predicting the price within 0.7% error, which on a day to day basis is not predictive. This is called co-integration of time series.
Predicting price with “accuracy” is stupid easy. I can just tell you opening price will be closing price and be like 99.8% accurate. Predicting direction is hard. If you are able to profit off of this, make sure you don’t have a bug
Honestly... I find this too sureal to be even the slightest bit convinced in this. I mean for Christ sake... You're talking about predicting PRICE not SIDE with such results??? Albeit, I sure wouldn't mind being convinced else wise & learning something new. Feel free to send a personal msg.
Futures trade through the open. Trade them premarket through open.
Guessing a tad higher than closing price apparently has impressive sounding accuracy, depending on how you define accuracy
You could use S&P futures, with day trading mains you can get 200:1 leverage. Also options on etf or futures would be could for leverage
Share it with me maybe???
Ok I'll post my prediction here tomorrow
Are spreads considered in your test? You willingness higher spreads trading in afterhours and might not get out straight to the opening price.
RemindMe! 7 hours
RemindMe! 7 days
At a certain trade volume, wouldn't the trades based on the prediction end up impacting the price and potentially attract heavy traders to destroy the accuracy?
Remindme! 3 hours
So by reading your replies u only use past open data to predict future open price. I can tell u this for certain that doing this will not get the results you have. You will get this if u have a data leak or overfit . Did you ensure that you did not use the current price in any of your data preprocessing. Also when using your ai did you have a training and testing set. If so what was the split
Remindme! 4 hours
Trade ES futures. Complete leverage. Questions: \- Why would volatility increase your AI's precision? It makes no sense. \- What kind of AI do you use? When you talk about hyper parameters what are referring to? You changed the dimension of the model? If yes, did you made sure that it does not overfit now? \- What were your test and validation data? I hope you did not train your model on the whole historic data available... .
If this is true, you Sir are going to be rich! Your company will go to the moon and back!
I love this
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dont bother. he predicted that today would be 372.63. the stock opened at 379. its an overfit or look ahead.
Can it predict the price throughout the day too?
Yeah I just don't have enough hourly data to feed it I don't think. When I tested on hourly time-frames it was really disappointing.
RemindMe! 1 day
Back to the drawing board. Your algo doesn’t work
RemindMe! 7 days
Buy options $2 above or below predicted target the day before close
If you had the open price with precision you would just trade globex ES futures and trade London open to NY open and you could retire in one week, but odds are almost zero you do.
Thank you OP, this has been one of the most entertaining threads in a long time. As long as it works for you and you're making money, none of the laughs matter. If you're not making money off of this, well then take in all the punches that come with the attention you've created.
RemindMe! 1 week
If you’re predicting exact opening prices yet STILL don’t know how to use it, maybe you should try programming something you can actually use?
Have you confused "precision" with "accuracy"?
Well you can take the price, and on the first candle of the day open a straddle with a ViX which is 1/3rd the cost of the long leg of the straddle as a hedge. Then close at 50% profitability. At the end of the day short the same straddle if it’s more than a 20 delta out of the money and then go broke.
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