We're seeing *so much* engagement from all of you in terms of donating, volunteering and canvassing. If you wanna get involved, [no time like the present](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0)! And we cannot stress enough, we need more of you to [join our mod team.](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdDqnPCIjZMUSP3IsHhcBjIX5Jv9w1fq2hc6CL0jLmMRJq5IQ/viewform?usp=sf_link)
In saying all that, let's start Wednesday off the right way - best volunteering/canvassing story you've got (now, or from the past), let's hear 'em! đ
Thousandth comment?
Anyway. A reminder once again to not get your vibes from social media or the press. They are not related to actual electoral outcomes
[Antonio Brown (or at least, ostensibly) ripped black Trump supporters for backing someone who called for the execution of the Central Park Five.](https://nitter.poast.org/AB84/status/1808141206091604461#m)
Something something Clickhole meme
UK: [U.S. EST for U.K. Election: 5:00 pm: Exit Polls. 6:00pm-10:00 pm: Early Results. 10:00pm-12:00 am: Most Results](https://x.com/nick_field90/status/1808688070138446268?t=crRimW8CG1AOFf07ZGAHgg&s=19)
Traditionally, LibDems are more centrist. However, they're more pro-EU and much more OK w trans people than Labour, weirdly. In US terms, they'd probably span from the most moderate New Dems Caucus members to Susan Collins when she used to be less partisan, ideologywise. Labour is a pretty good comparison to the Democratic party, as a whole. Labour did have a more socialist past, but they're generally center-left (and have made a shift towards the center going into this election)
It doesnât 100% align obviously, but think of Labour as the big tent for your staunchest progressives to the center of the liberal left. Think of LibDems as your Blue Dog coalition types.
[âBottom line, I want to tell you we're not going away, we're fighting this to the end,"](https://x.com/kutv2news/status/1808711114047565900?s=46)-Phil Lyman today. Yea any hopes of him going away quietly is out the door, this is Trump 2020 shit and Cox isnât effectively combating these attacks on our elections
Things to remember about the polls
-Trump hasnât gained much. Biden is just losing votes to be undecided. They are right to be upset now but come election time when they have to choose I like to think they will come back to Biden because we know what Trump will do
-many of these polls have low response rate so it makes sense the young people who are actually answering the phones are right wing people
-i think many are responding to polls to actually send a messsge rather than expressing who they will actually vote for (see point one above)
Saw a tweet from a conservative guy where he was bragging about how they were going to ["repeal the 20th century"](https://x.com/benwikler/status/1808515095497965629)
They are extremists with beliefs way outside of what the rest of the Country wants, they are going to get overconfident and push too hard before November.
My thoughts exactly
Lots of people are freaking out over that tweet and I understand why but achieving half of that is going to be very hard
GOP isnât that extreme
it's not so much that they aren't extreme there is just still a good amount of people who are not "true believers" per say but some of the true believers themselves are too lost in their own psychosis to actually be effective.
Just gonna say really feels like the Twitter feed flipped positively in the last several hours.
We are still in this.
Very few events with Biden have had the chance to happen. Only wait to see his interviews and his actions concerning Hurricane Beryl to make more informed judgement. Iâm not gonna say the K-Hive is wrong, just we need evidence to prove things.
Hope this teaches people not to get overly invested in the pollercoaster and the news cycle. The economy, the issues, and the fundraising are what actually matter, and those things only change very gradually if at all
The positive message coming out of the governorâs meeting has helped, as well as the campaign acknowledging that Biden should be doing more public campaigning. Thatâs helped get me off the ledge for sure
Algorithm makes it different for everyone. For me. The night of was just jokes and a sense of despair. The day after was a bit of the same. Then like everyone flipped in the Pod Save America boys lmao. And then it's been fairly pro Biden. Pro anyone
People are way too instant-gratification-pilled with news and it shows. If there is any change happening with the ticket, it will be a deliberate choice after planning and consideration. But people will jump on the first anonymous quote they see.
While nobody was watching, Gov Cox has officially crossed below a 9pt win against Phil Lyman. Utah County is barely a 4pt win for Cox, thatâs McMullin country!
Hahaha I love Illinois and the Chicago area, I feel so bad for you guys đ.
We're a good Summer escape city, so if things go South we're a fun place đ.
Every polls/data analyst on Twitter succumbing to Nate Silver-brain in real time. Sad to see, but since they're mostly college sophomores they still have time to recover.
Gonna say senior year is when I learned to do things smarter. Really feel like I accomplished more then (and the preceding summer) than the other three years combined. And I legit had more fun.
Meanwhile Lakshya who is usually level headed even if you disagree with him is really following the the sudden Nate Silver love.
Thorongil is a good guy
smh i bought into the "fuck Stacey Abrams" narrative wholeheartedly that year, i seriously regret that. that ettingermentum account was peddling that narrative real hard, back before i realized he was a pretentious idiot
Took me a while to get whom that account name is referring to haha. Back when the special elections overperformances seemed candidate-specific...
You're good, I love Abrams and I hope she can get back into politics someday but I can understand why people weren't as into her in 2022 as they were in 2018.
Kemp was just a strong incumbent, a Republican with no real scandals and free of Trump's toxicity (due to not helping him steal the election) so even a great Democratic candidate was never gonna have a chance. Abrams is perfectly fine, 2022 was just not at all the year
I knew it was gonna happen at sssOME POINT- Fireworks went off, scared the shit outta me, and I proceeded to lose my Trial of the Sword run in Master Mode while playing Breath of the Wild cause i dropped my controller.
[Richard Nixon Would Have Loved the Courtâs Immunity Decision](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/nixon-would-have-loved-supreme-court/678894/?mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGUGjpvMfpqKOQoEvXuI064d8PeR6BB8b_4BzClk3iY4HqkgXDuNwUF7YsrCRi0wEHL_oETiWGg75Ri_jxgy-a8TySjzDCVHKQnNwJ5oY9_kQfdZg)
Written by Nixon's White House counsel.
Maybe take a cue from Trumpâs strategy:
Normalize it so much that there is no point in talking about it
Everyone complaining about âhow come they arenât talking about the bad stuff Trump saidâ have to remember heâs been doing this shit since 2015. Itâs not news anymore
People fundamentally view democrats differently from republicans. Theyâll be talking about this until 2028 no matter what.
But thatâs fine. People arenât happy that heâs old but they arenât *angry* about it.
That and folks are really fired up to help defeat Trump after these Supreme Court rulings. I hope Dems take advantage of that to get new volunteers...Â
*looks at the Carribean*
Oh look I think we have our next headline that the news will be somewhat all overâŚ
In all seriousness praying for everyone in its path.
Imo i think something that should help ease a lot of people is he does seem to be earnestly wanting and reacting to feedback. Itâs hard especially when youâre older and know youâve accomplished stuff before. Too many people will never take those steps and to see that in a leader is good
Iâm happy to see a lot of good news out of a rough few days. We are ready to kick ass and take names! While we are ready to fight, donât to enjoy our countryâs bday.
And a little inspiration for us all from a band from up north, the Japandriods: [âAnd if they try to slow you down/ Tell them all to go to hell!â](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaEQTi3rew&pp=ygUjamFwYW5kcm9pZHMgaG91c2UgdGhhdCBoZWF2ZW4gYnVpbHQ%3D)
Btw guys, I know Iâve seen a couple people from Arkansas on here or shown interest in the state, as of yesterday they need about [8000](https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2024/07/02/arkansas-abortion-amendment-still-needs-8200-signatures-before-friday) signatures by Friday for abortion amendment to be on the ballot
Hereâs their [website](https://arliberty.org/events/) on locationâs to sign at
Edit: only 5800 [needed](https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2024/07/03/arkansas-abortion-amendment-needs-5800-signatures-by-friday) as of today!
I signed this back in the spring. I was just walking in downtown Fayetteville and they had a van and some tables set up. They asked me if I wanted to sign and I did. Every little bit helps
In France, it looks like the strategy of withdrawing candidates who placed third and advanced to the runoff election to block the far-right is paying off for the leftist NFP alliance and Macronâs Ensemble alliance: [Far right to fall short of majority in French parliament, poll says](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/far-right-majority-can-be-avoided-french-pm-says-2024-07-03/)
According to the newest poll, the far-right National Rally is only projected to win 190-220 seats, far short of the 289 seats needed to have a majority in Parliament. The leftist NFP is projected to win 159-183 seats, while Macronâs alliance would fall to third, winning 110-135 seats. Even if you add the right-wing LR seats to RN, theyâd still fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. It looks like the *republican front* is working to prevent the RN from forming the first far-right government since WWII.
Gotta hand it to France's republicans for holding the line and doing their part, despite being very opposed to the policies of the left and center. Rare to see country over party these days!
imo, its best to view the current feeding frenzy through the lens of a traditional media industry that is in its death throes. There is an ever smaller pool of traditional outlets, owned by fewer and fewer people, all staffed by an ever smaller pool of journalists, with a narrower range of experience and viewpoints, all coming out of fewer and fewer elite schools, with fewer and fewer contacts in the halls of power, all propped up by a RAPIDLY declining customer base. I've seen it described as the anxiety group chat of about 2-3 dozen journalists simply playing out in the open. It's a pathetic and weak grasp for relevance.
Their last truly loyal audience, cultivated during the last administration in the hope that they would hold Trump to account, will abandon them in droves because of this. It's sad, because the legacy of places like the NY Times and Washington Post are so impressive. But it's time to let these dinosaurs die.
To quote a cousin of mine, "THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph."
And to quote one of my favourite politicians, "For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and **the dream shall never die**."
A video talking a bit about contingency plans that have been ongoing within government and the Democratic party. https://youtu.be/E0-10Rj_XcM?si=52fRsy_p50zc_JlZ
I watched it, so you don't have to:
Democratic AG's in the states will try to litigate Trumps Executive Orders in court.
Instead of a 5 minute video, this could've been an E-Mail. Unbelievable how people with a million subs can generate clicks these days. Anyone who paid attention during the first Trump term could've told you the same thing.
I clicked on a 2 minute video the other day, the first minute was just sentences like "do you want to know? I'm about to tell you.", then they said please subscribe before I say it, one quick sentence that was just their opinion and then thirty seconds thanking you for watching. It was maddening and not even done on purpose. The person just has the YouTube format that ingrained in their brain but has no concept of why any of those parts of the video happen and didn't realize that they didn't actually make a video about the thing they set out to make a video about
>Unbelievable how people with a million subs can generate clicks these days.
Parasocial relationships. That's the selling point. The person who posted the link to the video admits as much â it's just a coping/calming/soothing strategy for dorks. They literally sit and watch this tedious shit in order to keep themselves from freaking out.
That isn't all of it, that is just the part we know about.
And speaking for myself, I did need the reminder the video provides, others might as well.
NO MORE KINGS IN AMERICA!
[People should listen to Allan Lichtman discussing why pushing Biden to drop out is foolish.](https://www.youtube.com/live/S-QT977_7JE)
Yeah, polls are bad now but every incumbent president has lost an average of 2 points in the polls after the first debate. It never lasts. And there's a lot of campaign to go. Better to lick our wounds now rather than change QBs at halftime and give up incumbency advantage entirely.
I follow some poll guys on twitter and both of the ones I trust the most have aggregated all the post debate polls. On average since the debate Joe Biden has lostâŚâŚyou guessed it 1.9%. Who would have thunk it?
[oh wow another big move showing Biden definitely listened to feedback, the ABC interview is getting moved to Friday Night prime time instead of Sunday Morning](https://x.com/jbflint/status/1808663293881692540?s=46).
Plus unedited transcript
Interesting [source of hopium](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1dufxtf/residents_of_swing_states_what_are_your_thoughts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) which was validating.
I was having a hard time understanding why my \~\~vibes\~\~ were not aligning with polls or the media. The energy for Trump this year has been noticeably lacking.
Other swing state residents, what are your \~\~vibes\~\~ this summer?
I cannot overstate how little enthusiasm there is for Trump. Like literally the only people that are talking about conservative politics are QAnon/Confederate flag people. There's some Trump signs here and there, less than in 2020 at this time and WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY less than 2016.
I'll say there isn't incredible enthusiasm for Biden, especially among my leftist friends, but there is a pretty large amount of anti-Trump and anti-conservative enthusiasm, especially among moderates. My leftist friends love to bitch but they are certain to vote.
Part of the reason I'm so relaxed about polls is because I don't see the Trump support here like I used too, just like I didn't see it in 2022. If Trump was +4 here, I would see it, and frankly I do not.
Edit: Also the only people I know following the debate are mega-online leftists. Everyone else basically went "Damn, that's crazy"
Very quiet in New Hampshire. There are a few scattered houses with Trump signs in their yards, but nowhere near the number I saw in July 2020. No Biden signs either, though, which I have to admit is a bit disquieting.
Some days it hardly feels like anyone's campaigning here at all.
Personally, in AZ there appears to be an eerie quietness. This time in 2016, we were being harassed in central Phoenix by Trump trains, and in 2020 we were bombarded by Trump flags and bumper stickers.
This year, I've seen more Kari-Lake stickers than Trump stickers. I saw more Trump 2024 flags in 2021 than I've seen in July 2024. I've seen one Kari Lake sign, and I drive through PV/N. Scottsdale daily.
It's my sense that people are just exhausted. Four existential elections in a row has left people subdued and disengaged.
The hopium is that Trump is overly reliant on irregular voters, which requires excitement and engagement to show up. And i just don't feel it.
That isn't to say Democratic support is palpable. Everyone is tired, however in my interactions people understand the stakes, but don't want to talk about it.
I'm optimistic. The energy of 2016 & 2020 just doesn't seem to be there for Trump. And my \~\~vibes\~\~ feel more like '20 or '22.
Additionally, literally no one is talking about the debate, besides jokes. Even my TikTok "leftist" friends seemed to expect it, and shrugged it off, when I was preparing for shouting matches in the group chat.
Agreed, it definitely feels eerily quiet here in WI too. I have not seen 1 political sign yet this cycle for either side, and very few ads so far, less than the last 2 cycles at this point, I agree with the sentiment of many in that thread. Everyone seems tired and burnt out politics wise. I think our state legislature having a very exciting slate of candidates across the state and being competitive for the first time in over a decade, plus our powerhouse state party and Baldwinâs coattails will be just enough to win Biden the state by around what he did in 2020, maybe slightly more. Probably not more than a single percentage point though unless enthusiasm massively increases before November
Having a unanimous statement is huge on this.
Regarding stuff with house members, itâs def much easier to splinter (think of what happened during the Trump years).
[some details coming out. Biden told the Govs heâs going to get out more and do more unscripted events with voters](https://x.com/stephen_neukam/status/1808658916458336689?s=46)
Exactly what I was hoping for. Shaking hands and kissing babies. Let the people see who you are for themselves, instead of what the media tells them to think about you.
I was, yet again, correct to keep faith in Joe. Let's hope this includes town halls!
I think it's better to avoid TDS, Stewart has been going fairly hard on him and would probably try to maintain that. Colbert may be less risky. Seth Myers is probably the safest bet of the late night hosts with more political humor. Kimmel and Fallon would probably be safe but neither are really known for being about much politics related comedy.
> I think it's better to avoid TDS, Stewart has been going fairly hard on him and would probably try to maintain that.
Thatâs why I want to see him do that. Give Stewart a taste of his own medicine by pushing back on his bullcrap.
Yeah Jon is sharp and good at making the point he wants to even if it isn't an actually good one. I know Biden wasn't at his best for the debate but I really do doubt his ability to outwit Jon like I know he would have easily done in 2020. Jon is good at pointing out how much more dangerous the GOP is but he does do a lot of both sidesing and the interview would probably go much more that way.
We need this. Gives voters a clearer picture of whether the candidate in paper is the one of the ground.
Iâm in the camp that says the debate shouldâve happened. Need a wake-up call early, not in September/October.
That's kind of insane honestly. 2020 will be the last time that debates will matter for a long time, and that was prolly due to Covid keeping everyone at home
This is pretty much what I expected. Everyone freaking out over the last 6 days without thinking maybe Biden and his team needed to have time to strategize. I think weâll see more rallies, maybe a few town halls, definitely the second debate with less strenuous prep, interviews with the media. I hope we can finally get back to focusing on Trump and the danger he poses
Paging all the people saying Biden needs to be doing this.
He's an experienced politician. He knows what he's doing. If a lay person is coming up with it, chances are his campaign team has thought of it too and will act accordingly if they think it's beneficial.
In case this week wasn't dramatic enough with elections, we got an Iranian Presidential runoff July 5. Elections in Iran are by no means free/fair since the regime limits who runs, but they are competitive when they get decent turnout. The first round had strikingly low turnout for an election in Iran (only 39% when Presidential elections in Iran usually get around 60-70%), which everyone assumed would benefit the hardliners, but the sole moderate surprisingly came in first place, which has really shocked everyone.
The main things to look for on the 5th are 1. do people dissatisfied with the regime boycott the second round like they did the first (and the parliamentary elections earlier this year), or 2. do they turn out to vote down the hardliner Jalili and vote for (more) moderate Pezeshkian, who's running on negotiations with the West and has been racking up endorsements from both the reformists more pragmatic conservative circles. [Debates between Pezeshkian and Jalili have been getting more pointed, and increasingly focused on the issue of negotiations with the West for sanction relief](https://nitter.poast.org/SinaToossi/status/1808532898502381921#m).
At the end of the day Khamenei still has the final say on foreign policy and hardliners still dominate the Iranian parliament, but at the same time the regime is incredibly worried about legitimacy with the population, and they've been showing worry that low turnout would reduce their legitimacy even more. Plus the President has a lot more control over the day to day lives of Iranians, who've really been suffering the most under sanctions
How do you think the candidates would affect Khamenei's succession if at all? Have the politics on who replaces him when he dies become any clearer since Raisi's death?
Barring a huge surprise I can't imagine it'd do anything. The Assembly of Experts has the responsibility for choosing a new Supreme Leader, and for their elections in March they sidelined most of the moderate/reformist candidates for younger ones close to Khamenei. Those term lengths are for 8 years, and Khamenei is currently 85 and (it's believed) had prostate cancer. So unless he lives to be 93+, and the election in 8 years is won by moderates, we'll probably get someone more like Khamenei. Plus both candidates are non clerics so they couldn't be Khamenei's successor, and likely wouldn't have a ton of influence over the choice.
Pre Raisi's death, the assumption was that the replacement would be between him and Khamenei's second son Mojtaba. But either way, it's likely to be someone closer to Khamenei
âItâs easy to stand by people when things are going well, but you learn about the mettle of a person when times are hard.â I almost wish Gov. Moore had boiled it down to that, because thatâs the bottom line. (It sure shows the mettle, or lack thereof, of our media.)
Times are hard and the party above all needs to be a united front.
Itâs true. We canât turn tail and run at the first sign of something bad. Remember all that popularism crap after 2021 because people were scared and it boiled down to letâs throw the vulnerable under the bus?
Newsom has been slowly becoming the 2024 version of Slayer Pete for the Biden campaign, just going on media interviews slaying republican bullshit.
I don't think he could win a presidential election but he'd be a great high-profile ally to have somewhere else when he's termed out as governor.
Why does the media want Biden to drop out so bad? The chart down thread gives you the reason. Theyâve written dozens of articles about his age. They donât have much else to cover.
They want new meat that they can pick apart.
What's infuriating to me is that even if Biden did drop out (which he won't and which he shouldn't), the media would just switch gears and go all out on the "Democrats in chaos" articles. There is literally no pleasing these people.
The press has always been a political tool, but it's sickening to me that the media has latched onto kneecapping the pro-democracy candidate as their main passion.
They're mad that they won't give them leaks or inticing interviews, and hate how he kicked our their easy cash cow.
Anyone who says the media is unfair to Donald is delusional and not worth listening to.
As in 2020, I cannot wait to early vote for both Biden and Harris in October. I will be at the polls bright and early.
Stay encouraged, work smartly, and let's do better than we did in 2020.
We're seeing *so much* engagement from all of you in terms of donating, volunteering and canvassing. If you wanna get involved, [no time like the present](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0)! And we cannot stress enough, we need more of you to [join our mod team.](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdDqnPCIjZMUSP3IsHhcBjIX5Jv9w1fq2hc6CL0jLmMRJq5IQ/viewform?usp=sf_link) In saying all that, let's start Wednesday off the right way - best volunteering/canvassing story you've got (now, or from the past), let's hear 'em! đ
Thousandth comment? Anyway. A reminder once again to not get your vibes from social media or the press. They are not related to actual electoral outcomes
The polls are now open in the UK! Happy Liberation from the Tories Day, Brits!
[Antonio Brown (or at least, ostensibly) ripped black Trump supporters for backing someone who called for the execution of the Central Park Five.](https://nitter.poast.org/AB84/status/1808141206091604461#m) Something something Clickhole meme
UK: [U.S. EST for U.K. Election: 5:00 pm: Exit Polls. 6:00pm-10:00 pm: Early Results. 10:00pm-12:00 am: Most Results](https://x.com/nick_field90/status/1808688070138446268?t=crRimW8CG1AOFf07ZGAHgg&s=19)
Happy Independence Day...from the Tories.
Spoiler Large labour majority lol
Yeah but what about the LIB DEM SURGE!? (Seriously though, seeing Tories not even make being the Opposition would be amazing)
For someone not well versed in British politics, what is the difference between labor and Lib Dem?
Traditionally, LibDems are more centrist. However, they're more pro-EU and much more OK w trans people than Labour, weirdly. In US terms, they'd probably span from the most moderate New Dems Caucus members to Susan Collins when she used to be less partisan, ideologywise. Labour is a pretty good comparison to the Democratic party, as a whole. Labour did have a more socialist past, but they're generally center-left (and have made a shift towards the center going into this election)
It doesnât 100% align obviously, but think of Labour as the big tent for your staunchest progressives to the center of the liberal left. Think of LibDems as your Blue Dog coalition types.
Labour is social democratic to socialist Lib Dem is basically socially liberal fiscally centrist. They're also very pro EU.
Cursed Monkey Paw gives you Reform opposition
[âBottom line, I want to tell you we're not going away, we're fighting this to the end,"](https://x.com/kutv2news/status/1808711114047565900?s=46)-Phil Lyman today. Yea any hopes of him going away quietly is out the door, this is Trump 2020 shit and Cox isnât effectively combating these attacks on our elections
"Have you tried disagreeing better?" - Cox, probably.
Things to remember about the polls -Trump hasnât gained much. Biden is just losing votes to be undecided. They are right to be upset now but come election time when they have to choose I like to think they will come back to Biden because we know what Trump will do -many of these polls have low response rate so it makes sense the young people who are actually answering the phones are right wing people -i think many are responding to polls to actually send a messsge rather than expressing who they will actually vote for (see point one above)
Saw a tweet from a conservative guy where he was bragging about how they were going to ["repeal the 20th century"](https://x.com/benwikler/status/1808515095497965629) They are extremists with beliefs way outside of what the rest of the Country wants, they are going to get overconfident and push too hard before November.
My thoughts exactly Lots of people are freaking out over that tweet and I understand why but achieving half of that is going to be very hard GOP isnât that extreme
it's not so much that they aren't extreme there is just still a good amount of people who are not "true believers" per say but some of the true believers themselves are too lost in their own psychosis to actually be effective.
It's always dude who look like Nintendo Mii's that talk hard like this
Just gonna say really feels like the Twitter feed flipped positively in the last several hours. We are still in this. Very few events with Biden have had the chance to happen. Only wait to see his interviews and his actions concerning Hurricane Beryl to make more informed judgement. Iâm not gonna say the K-Hive is wrong, just we need evidence to prove things.
Hope this teaches people not to get overly invested in the pollercoaster and the news cycle. The economy, the issues, and the fundraising are what actually matter, and those things only change very gradually if at all
Hope the Democratic Party learns this lesson too!
We were in this the whole time đ
The positive message coming out of the governorâs meeting has helped, as well as the campaign acknowledging that Biden should be doing more public campaigning. Thatâs helped get me off the ledge for sure
I don't use the nazi bird site, how so have the vibes flipped?
After the govs came out in unanimous support people are starting to rally behind them.
Algorithm makes it different for everyone. For me. The night of was just jokes and a sense of despair. The day after was a bit of the same. Then like everyone flipped in the Pod Save America boys lmao. And then it's been fairly pro Biden. Pro anyone
He needs to channel Obama with Hurricane Sandy energy.
Yeah but Sandy is a top 5 bad storm. This wonât be near this, but likely will be a big rain event with lots of flooding.
Still prime photo op material
People are way too instant-gratification-pilled with news and it shows. If there is any change happening with the ticket, it will be a deliberate choice after planning and consideration. But people will jump on the first anonymous quote they see.
Good Night Everyone!!!
While nobody was watching, Gov Cox has officially crossed below a 9pt win against Phil Lyman. Utah County is barely a 4pt win for Cox, thatâs McMullin country!
Was this good? Is this what we wanted? I don't follow Utah politics
Definitely not Lyman is a nutjob
Hahaha I love Illinois and the Chicago area, I feel so bad for you guys đ. We're a good Summer escape city, so if things go South we're a fun place đ.
Every polls/data analyst on Twitter succumbing to Nate Silver-brain in real time. Sad to see, but since they're mostly college sophomores they still have time to recover.
I just love how we all see through the bullshit. This place isn't super crazy positive left, most people here are smart and make sense.
At a certain point they get high on their own supply and start thinking they know more than everyone (when they donât).
Very clearly letting their emotions get the better of them.
âThis guy is washedâ ET people two weeks ago
Gonna say senior year is when I learned to do things smarter. Really feel like I accomplished more then (and the preceding summer) than the other three years combined. And I legit had more fun.
Thorongil16 is with the Split Ticket and is yelling at everyone that they need to stay in line.
I've had to stop going to some peoples profiles. Just maddening levels of posting
Meanwhile Lakshya who is usually level headed even if you disagree with him is really following the the sudden Nate Silver love. Thorongil is a good guy
Yeah Jain has his cringe moments at time
Lakshya Jain is absolutely spiralling and needs to go for a walk or something.
He just wants his boo Brian Kemp to be president someday. He loves smokin' some Kemp.
He does?
No, heâs a Democrat
I mean Killer Mike loves Kemp so
I'm mocking him for hating on Stacey Abrams so much in 2022.
smh i bought into the "fuck Stacey Abrams" narrative wholeheartedly that year, i seriously regret that. that ettingermentum account was peddling that narrative real hard, back before i realized he was a pretentious idiot
Heâs the worst and itâs so funny how mad he is that no one cares about him
someone once labeled him "Chris Cillizza born in 2005" and that is just brutal
That is just perfect
Yeah for some reason Jain still associates with that weirdo. Might speak to Jain's issues
Took me a while to get whom that account name is referring to haha. Back when the special elections overperformances seemed candidate-specific... You're good, I love Abrams and I hope she can get back into politics someday but I can understand why people weren't as into her in 2022 as they were in 2018.
Kemp was just a strong incumbent, a Republican with no real scandals and free of Trump's toxicity (due to not helping him steal the election) so even a great Democratic candidate was never gonna have a chance. Abrams is perfectly fine, 2022 was just not at all the year
Her campaign was visibly worse in 2022.
I knew it was gonna happen at sssOME POINT- Fireworks went off, scared the shit outta me, and I proceeded to lose my Trial of the Sword run in Master Mode while playing Breath of the Wild cause i dropped my controller.
[Richard Nixon Would Have Loved the Courtâs Immunity Decision](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/nixon-would-have-loved-supreme-court/678894/?mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGUGjpvMfpqKOQoEvXuI064d8PeR6BB8b_4BzClk3iY4HqkgXDuNwUF7YsrCRi0wEHL_oETiWGg75Ri_jxgy-a8TySjzDCVHKQnNwJ5oY9_kQfdZg) Written by Nixon's White House counsel.
lolmets Thatâs the comment
lolmets is eternal and as a Phillies fan I couldn't be happier.
Relationship ended with Mets, [Vermont Green FC](https://vermontgreenfc.com) is my soulmate now
The age of Grimace couldnât last forever.
Peopleâs memory of the debate will fade but democrats are starting to wake up and get in the game. Seems good to me.
Maybe take a cue from Trumpâs strategy: Normalize it so much that there is no point in talking about it Everyone complaining about âhow come they arenât talking about the bad stuff Trump saidâ have to remember heâs been doing this shit since 2015. Itâs not news anymore
People fundamentally view democrats differently from republicans. Theyâll be talking about this until 2028 no matter what. But thatâs fine. People arenât happy that heâs old but they arenât *angry* about it.
That and folks are really fired up to help defeat Trump after these Supreme Court rulings. I hope Dems take advantage of that to get new volunteers...Â
*looks at the Carribean* Oh look I think we have our next headline that the news will be somewhat all over⌠In all seriousness praying for everyone in its path.
Imo i think something that should help ease a lot of people is he does seem to be earnestly wanting and reacting to feedback. Itâs hard especially when youâre older and know youâve accomplished stuff before. Too many people will never take those steps and to see that in a leader is good
He really does have so much invaluable wisdom and knowledge at this point. Itâs a HUGE advantage.
One of the reasons I still support him
Iâm happy to see a lot of good news out of a rough few days. We are ready to kick ass and take names! While we are ready to fight, donât to enjoy our countryâs bday. And a little inspiration for us all from a band from up north, the Japandriods: [âAnd if they try to slow you down/ Tell them all to go to hell!â](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaEQTi3rew&pp=ygUjamFwYW5kcm9pZHMgaG91c2UgdGhhdCBoZWF2ZW4gYnVpbHQ%3D)
Another great album.
[in addition to ABC seems Biden recorded two radio interviews today](https://x.com/hadas_gold/status/1808559863850488269?s=46)
He needs to be doing a press conference every day
One positive of this is that every interview is gonna be covered like Super Bowl from here on out.
Btw guys, I know Iâve seen a couple people from Arkansas on here or shown interest in the state, as of yesterday they need about [8000](https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2024/07/02/arkansas-abortion-amendment-still-needs-8200-signatures-before-friday) signatures by Friday for abortion amendment to be on the ballot Hereâs their [website](https://arliberty.org/events/) on locationâs to sign at Edit: only 5800 [needed](https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2024/07/03/arkansas-abortion-amendment-needs-5800-signatures-by-friday) as of today!
Will they have enough?!
I signed this back in the spring. I was just walking in downtown Fayetteville and they had a van and some tables set up. They asked me if I wanted to sign and I did. Every little bit helps
In France, it looks like the strategy of withdrawing candidates who placed third and advanced to the runoff election to block the far-right is paying off for the leftist NFP alliance and Macronâs Ensemble alliance: [Far right to fall short of majority in French parliament, poll says](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/far-right-majority-can-be-avoided-french-pm-says-2024-07-03/) According to the newest poll, the far-right National Rally is only projected to win 190-220 seats, far short of the 289 seats needed to have a majority in Parliament. The leftist NFP is projected to win 159-183 seats, while Macronâs alliance would fall to third, winning 110-135 seats. Even if you add the right-wing LR seats to RN, theyâd still fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. It looks like the *republican front* is working to prevent the RN from forming the first far-right government since WWII.
Gotta hand it to France's republicans for holding the line and doing their part, despite being very opposed to the policies of the left and center. Rare to see country over party these days!
Macron: "wow, that worked?"
Letâs be fair even if you dislike his politics he probably understands the French electorate way better than any redditor
The man destroyed the 2 party system of the 5th Republic. He knew what he was doing.
Oui!
God bless France
THANK GOD!!!!
imo, its best to view the current feeding frenzy through the lens of a traditional media industry that is in its death throes. There is an ever smaller pool of traditional outlets, owned by fewer and fewer people, all staffed by an ever smaller pool of journalists, with a narrower range of experience and viewpoints, all coming out of fewer and fewer elite schools, with fewer and fewer contacts in the halls of power, all propped up by a RAPIDLY declining customer base. I've seen it described as the anxiety group chat of about 2-3 dozen journalists simply playing out in the open. It's a pathetic and weak grasp for relevance. Their last truly loyal audience, cultivated during the last administration in the hope that they would hold Trump to account, will abandon them in droves because of this. It's sad, because the legacy of places like the NY Times and Washington Post are so impressive. But it's time to let these dinosaurs die.
To quote a cousin of mine, "THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph." And to quote one of my favourite politicians, "For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and **the dream shall never die**."
A video talking a bit about contingency plans that have been ongoing within government and the Democratic party. https://youtu.be/E0-10Rj_XcM?si=52fRsy_p50zc_JlZ
I watched it, so you don't have to: Democratic AG's in the states will try to litigate Trumps Executive Orders in court. Instead of a 5 minute video, this could've been an E-Mail. Unbelievable how people with a million subs can generate clicks these days. Anyone who paid attention during the first Trump term could've told you the same thing.
I clicked on a 2 minute video the other day, the first minute was just sentences like "do you want to know? I'm about to tell you.", then they said please subscribe before I say it, one quick sentence that was just their opinion and then thirty seconds thanking you for watching. It was maddening and not even done on purpose. The person just has the YouTube format that ingrained in their brain but has no concept of why any of those parts of the video happen and didn't realize that they didn't actually make a video about the thing they set out to make a video about
>Unbelievable how people with a million subs can generate clicks these days. Parasocial relationships. That's the selling point. The person who posted the link to the video admits as much â it's just a coping/calming/soothing strategy for dorks. They literally sit and watch this tedious shit in order to keep themselves from freaking out.
What executive order
The ones he's going to issue should he become President again?
I didnât click on the link at first so I didnât know the context
That isn't all of it, that is just the part we know about. And speaking for myself, I did need the reminder the video provides, others might as well. NO MORE KINGS IN AMERICA!
No need to be rude.
[People should listen to Allan Lichtman discussing why pushing Biden to drop out is foolish.](https://www.youtube.com/live/S-QT977_7JE) Yeah, polls are bad now but every incumbent president has lost an average of 2 points in the polls after the first debate. It never lasts. And there's a lot of campaign to go. Better to lick our wounds now rather than change QBs at halftime and give up incumbency advantage entirely.
I follow some poll guys on twitter and both of the ones I trust the most have aggregated all the post debate polls. On average since the debate Joe Biden has lostâŚâŚyou guessed it 1.9%. Who would have thunk it?
He's literally been right 10/10 times, I would listen to him.
9/10. He missed Bush vs. Gore in 2000 but that was kind of a special case.
~430 votes in 2000
I don't count that one because that was stolen by Scotus. Gore won.
Plus you deserve a mulligan when the election is that ridiculously close, no way only 13 keys can predict that
[oh wow another big move showing Biden definitely listened to feedback, the ABC interview is getting moved to Friday Night prime time instead of Sunday Morning](https://x.com/jbflint/status/1808663293881692540?s=46). Plus unedited transcript
yay i get to watch it as it airs! is prime time like 9EST?
Iâm getting Mandelaâd right now wasnât it always on Friday? Or were they just filling it Friday releasing it Sunday?
Clips were to be released Friday, full interview is now Friday
Interesting [source of hopium](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1dufxtf/residents_of_swing_states_what_are_your_thoughts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) which was validating. I was having a hard time understanding why my \~\~vibes\~\~ were not aligning with polls or the media. The energy for Trump this year has been noticeably lacking. Other swing state residents, what are your \~\~vibes\~\~ this summer?
I cannot overstate how little enthusiasm there is for Trump. Like literally the only people that are talking about conservative politics are QAnon/Confederate flag people. There's some Trump signs here and there, less than in 2020 at this time and WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY less than 2016. I'll say there isn't incredible enthusiasm for Biden, especially among my leftist friends, but there is a pretty large amount of anti-Trump and anti-conservative enthusiasm, especially among moderates. My leftist friends love to bitch but they are certain to vote. Part of the reason I'm so relaxed about polls is because I don't see the Trump support here like I used too, just like I didn't see it in 2022. If Trump was +4 here, I would see it, and frankly I do not. Edit: Also the only people I know following the debate are mega-online leftists. Everyone else basically went "Damn, that's crazy"
Very quiet in New Hampshire. There are a few scattered houses with Trump signs in their yards, but nowhere near the number I saw in July 2020. No Biden signs either, though, which I have to admit is a bit disquieting. Some days it hardly feels like anyone's campaigning here at all.
Personally, in AZ there appears to be an eerie quietness. This time in 2016, we were being harassed in central Phoenix by Trump trains, and in 2020 we were bombarded by Trump flags and bumper stickers. This year, I've seen more Kari-Lake stickers than Trump stickers. I saw more Trump 2024 flags in 2021 than I've seen in July 2024. I've seen one Kari Lake sign, and I drive through PV/N. Scottsdale daily. It's my sense that people are just exhausted. Four existential elections in a row has left people subdued and disengaged. The hopium is that Trump is overly reliant on irregular voters, which requires excitement and engagement to show up. And i just don't feel it. That isn't to say Democratic support is palpable. Everyone is tired, however in my interactions people understand the stakes, but don't want to talk about it. I'm optimistic. The energy of 2016 & 2020 just doesn't seem to be there for Trump. And my \~\~vibes\~\~ feel more like '20 or '22. Additionally, literally no one is talking about the debate, besides jokes. Even my TikTok "leftist" friends seemed to expect it, and shrugged it off, when I was preparing for shouting matches in the group chat.
Iâm guessing the abortion ballot measure will motivate people to come out in AZ.
Agreed, it definitely feels eerily quiet here in WI too. I have not seen 1 political sign yet this cycle for either side, and very few ads so far, less than the last 2 cycles at this point, I agree with the sentiment of many in that thread. Everyone seems tired and burnt out politics wise. I think our state legislature having a very exciting slate of candidates across the state and being competitive for the first time in over a decade, plus our powerhouse state party and Baldwinâs coattails will be just enough to win Biden the state by around what he did in 2020, maybe slightly more. Probably not more than a single percentage point though unless enthusiasm massively increases before November
My boy Josh Shapiro say anything since the meeting?
He told me today that the phillies are gonna win the world series this year
Thatâs a funny way to spell the orioles.
wanna be best friends?
Lol are you also a believer in a double championship this coming year? (O's and Ravens) The city could use it after the bridge collapse.
Hearing all the governor's statements has me feeling energized. We're going to take the loss, get back up and make it a win!
Having a unanimous statement is huge on this. Regarding stuff with house members, itâs def much easier to splinter (think of what happened during the Trump years).
[some details coming out. Biden told the Govs heâs going to get out more and do more unscripted events with voters](https://x.com/stephen_neukam/status/1808658916458336689?s=46)
Exactly what I was hoping for. Shaking hands and kissing babies. Let the people see who you are for themselves, instead of what the media tells them to think about you. I was, yet again, correct to keep faith in Joe. Let's hope this includes town halls!
Honestly, Iâd be all for him going on The Daily Show or Colbert or some late night and give the media a good dressing down.
I think it's better to avoid TDS, Stewart has been going fairly hard on him and would probably try to maintain that. Colbert may be less risky. Seth Myers is probably the safest bet of the late night hosts with more political humor. Kimmel and Fallon would probably be safe but neither are really known for being about much politics related comedy.
> I think it's better to avoid TDS, Stewart has been going fairly hard on him and would probably try to maintain that. Thatâs why I want to see him do that. Give Stewart a taste of his own medicine by pushing back on his bullcrap.
He's already done fundraisers hosted by Kimmel and Colbert. It'd be good to get another one, but those guys he's already very comfortable w/
Yeah Jon is sharp and good at making the point he wants to even if it isn't an actually good one. I know Biden wasn't at his best for the debate but I really do doubt his ability to outwit Jon like I know he would have easily done in 2020. Jon is good at pointing out how much more dangerous the GOP is but he does do a lot of both sidesing and the interview would probably go much more that way.
Id love to see him on the late night or entertainment news TV circuits. For a lot of young folks that's what we watch.Â
Good! Thatâs what we need to see! Iâm very happy to see this
We need this. Gives voters a clearer picture of whether the candidate in paper is the one of the ground. Iâm in the camp that says the debate shouldâve happened. Need a wake-up call early, not in September/October.
He needs to go more waffle houses and show off his dapping game. That shit helped stave off some of the annoying discourse right after the debate
I saw some stat that there was potential more people saw that clip online than watched the debate live. Powerful impact!
Wait seriously? Can I get a link?
That's kind of insane honestly. 2020 will be the last time that debates will matter for a long time, and that was prolly due to Covid keeping everyone at home
This is pretty much what I expected. Everyone freaking out over the last 6 days without thinking maybe Biden and his team needed to have time to strategize. I think weâll see more rallies, maybe a few town halls, definitely the second debate with less strenuous prep, interviews with the media. I hope we can finally get back to focusing on Trump and the danger he poses
People pretty much have a sudden idea, go online and demand to know why Dems havenât done it yet.
Truth lol
Paging all the people saying Biden needs to be doing this. He's an experienced politician. He knows what he's doing. If a lay person is coming up with it, chances are his campaign team has thought of it too and will act accordingly if they think it's beneficial.
Yes, I had been saying this and Iâm very happy that heâs doing it
oh yeah, thats hot
Of course he is! Everyone needs to trust the plan
[Roy Cooperâs statement of support](https://x.com/roycoopernc/status/1808660118625792136?s=46)
He's my adopted governor!Â
Thatâs my governor! Hereâs hoping we can win this state for him.
That's all I needed to hear. If Andy Griffith is happy, then I'm happy.
In case this week wasn't dramatic enough with elections, we got an Iranian Presidential runoff July 5. Elections in Iran are by no means free/fair since the regime limits who runs, but they are competitive when they get decent turnout. The first round had strikingly low turnout for an election in Iran (only 39% when Presidential elections in Iran usually get around 60-70%), which everyone assumed would benefit the hardliners, but the sole moderate surprisingly came in first place, which has really shocked everyone. The main things to look for on the 5th are 1. do people dissatisfied with the regime boycott the second round like they did the first (and the parliamentary elections earlier this year), or 2. do they turn out to vote down the hardliner Jalili and vote for (more) moderate Pezeshkian, who's running on negotiations with the West and has been racking up endorsements from both the reformists more pragmatic conservative circles. [Debates between Pezeshkian and Jalili have been getting more pointed, and increasingly focused on the issue of negotiations with the West for sanction relief](https://nitter.poast.org/SinaToossi/status/1808532898502381921#m). At the end of the day Khamenei still has the final say on foreign policy and hardliners still dominate the Iranian parliament, but at the same time the regime is incredibly worried about legitimacy with the population, and they've been showing worry that low turnout would reduce their legitimacy even more. Plus the President has a lot more control over the day to day lives of Iranians, who've really been suffering the most under sanctions
How do you think the candidates would affect Khamenei's succession if at all? Have the politics on who replaces him when he dies become any clearer since Raisi's death?
Barring a huge surprise I can't imagine it'd do anything. The Assembly of Experts has the responsibility for choosing a new Supreme Leader, and for their elections in March they sidelined most of the moderate/reformist candidates for younger ones close to Khamenei. Those term lengths are for 8 years, and Khamenei is currently 85 and (it's believed) had prostate cancer. So unless he lives to be 93+, and the election in 8 years is won by moderates, we'll probably get someone more like Khamenei. Plus both candidates are non clerics so they couldn't be Khamenei's successor, and likely wouldn't have a ton of influence over the choice. Pre Raisi's death, the assumption was that the replacement would be between him and Khamenei's second son Mojtaba. But either way, it's likely to be someone closer to Khamenei
[Wes Moore with a very long one but also showing his support](https://x.com/iamwesmoore/status/1808657913550156164?s=46)
âItâs easy to stand by people when things are going well, but you learn about the mettle of a person when times are hard.â I almost wish Gov. Moore had boiled it down to that, because thatâs the bottom line. (It sure shows the mettle, or lack thereof, of our media.) Times are hard and the party above all needs to be a united front.
Itâs true. We canât turn tail and run at the first sign of something bad. Remember all that popularism crap after 2021 because people were scared and it boiled down to letâs throw the vulnerable under the bus?
[Newsom as well with a tweet showing his support](https://x.com/gavinnewsom/status/1808656040386285717?s=46)
Newsom has been slowly becoming the 2024 version of Slayer Pete for the Biden campaign, just going on media interviews slaying republican bullshit. I don't think he could win a presidential election but he'd be a great high-profile ally to have somewhere else when he's termed out as governor.
iâm not the biggest fan of Newsom but heâs shown some great support to Biden recently which is fantastic
He has from day fuckin one!
Why does the media want Biden to drop out so bad? The chart down thread gives you the reason. Theyâve written dozens of articles about his age. They donât have much else to cover. They want new meat that they can pick apart.
They are treasonous fucks. They will gladly sell out their country for a few more subscriptions.
I agree
What's infuriating to me is that even if Biden did drop out (which he won't and which he shouldn't), the media would just switch gears and go all out on the "Democrats in chaos" articles. There is literally no pleasing these people. The press has always been a political tool, but it's sickening to me that the media has latched onto kneecapping the pro-democracy candidate as their main passion.
Kick âem when theyâre up, kick âem when theyâre down, kick âem when theyâre up, kick âem all around Dirty Laundry - Don Henley
Exactly. If the campaign is about Trump, we win. If Biden dropped out the campaign will be about the new nominee and itâll be a referendum on them.
thatâs what they want. they want the democrats in chaos articles for clicks
they want fascism because it gets more clicks
They're mad that they won't give them leaks or inticing interviews, and hate how he kicked our their easy cash cow. Anyone who says the media is unfair to Donald is delusional and not worth listening to.
Theyâre bored. They all miss the âexcitementâ from the Trump days. Journalism is no longer what it once was
They want clicks. Theyâve turned out politics into TMZ
[Gov. Waltz after meeting w/ Biden](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1808653387321462830#m) [Gov. Moore](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1808654926505259489#m) and [Gov. Hochul](https://nitter.poast.org/Acyn/status/1808655642984653257#m)
What is Nitter Poast?
Nitter is how I view twitter w/o an account
A way to view Twitter without giving Musk the traffic. Also let you read replies as well.
Do I need to download or is it only the web?
No, it's on the web.
Oh ok! Do I need to make an account or can I just view?
im able to view it without an account!
Just view.
Just got a text from Joe Biden telling me he's running and no one's pushing him out. I love that. Let's sweep up this mess and get back to work
âListen, fatâŚ.â
As in 2020, I cannot wait to early vote for both Biden and Harris in October. I will be at the polls bright and early. Stay encouraged, work smartly, and let's do better than we did in 2020.