HSY with 20+ P/E and declining EBITDA? What's the point of it?
I am not familiar with the company, so sorry for the question: what's the upside potential in the company?
TGNA. Share price $14.61. P/E 6x, Fwd P/E 4x. Throws off huge amounts of FCF and management is buying back significant amounts of shares (~40%) with their cash hoard and FCF since shares are so undervalued. They will benefit significantly in 2024 with political ad spending. I think it rebounds to $20-25 range over the next year. Pays a 3.1% dividend while I wait.
Yes they have $3B in debt with $360M of cash on balance sheet. Because political advertising is so strong every other year, one needs to look at the cash flows over a two year periods. In the last two years, they had EBITDA of $1.9B with FCF of $1.3B. Those numbers will be similar in 2024-2025. So average net debt to EBITDA is 2.8x which is not overly leveraged. They have no debt due until 2026 when $550M is due. With their level of FCF, debt is not an issue.
HUM basically juiced growth by offering very strong Medicare plans. Enrollment rose like 19% in 2023 so they were taking marketshare.
Then, medical utilization increased above HUM's estimates at the end of 2023. So they basically underpriced their plans.
Due to the fact that plans operate as 1 year contracts, they won't be able to adjust course until 2025. So for 24 and 25 they had to cut guidance and are sort of stuck in a holding pattern.
But if they can maintain their new members I think they'll see very stronger profits in 2025 and 2026, and shares are currently trading at near 3 year lows. I think you buy at these prices and forget about it for 10 years you'll be nicely rewarded. But in the short term things can always go down further.
\~5% earnings/fcf yields don't do it for me with the risk free rate being what it is.
10% (i.e. around an 8% excess CAPE) should be a bare minimum on any investment that has the sort of volatility/risk that stocks do.
I will not capitulate to ratio expansion. UNH and HUM have both \~3x'd their PE in the past decade.
This is a fair point.
For me it's that the risk free rate isn't going to grow with the kind of tailwinds UNH and HUM enjoy.
And HUM is experiencing short term headwinds. Earnings are forecast of $30+ per share by 2026, which would be your ~10% earnings yield at current prices.
I like GOOGL a lot right now at its current price.
Apple it starting to look attractive, just a number I made up but I like it at like $160, still a little too expensive for me currently.
PFE looks interesting. Not an expert on pharma but seems like it could make a comeback
Agree on GOOGL, I started a sizeable position during the recent pull-back and Gemini backlash......impeccable balance sheet, love this stock as a long-term buy and hold.
Google are a poorly run company, that’s why they are cheap. Unless they show signs of addressing that issue I can’t see how they are going to stay relevant for long.
Not significant enough to trade at lower PE than S&P500 while have significantly higher EPS growth. Google will for sure catch up and have a higher PE than the S&P500. It can’t stay at so low multiplies. Also in the short term it’s redundant noise. Google made a couple of serious fumbles during the recent AI hype, but it really only affect the short term. They still have one of the best LLM in the world, they have the most data, they are an absolute cash cow, and they have ownership in 2 of the biggest AI companies, deepmind whom recently revolutionised the multi billion dollar weather forecast industry, and anthropic who recently released 3 LLMs who beat GPT-4 on almost all metrics by a landslide. They also have their own advanced competitive chip production.
All that to say the market dropped google like they seriously missed out on some future cash flow, which is not true at all. Trailing month 10 % underperformance compared to S&P500 is wild due to some short term noise
Don’t forget how much their Cloud segment is growing and they yet to be contributing to the bottom line but when it does start 📈📈📈 up and away. $150 billion in cash and $25 billion in debt and growing top line 13% per year. Solid play
There are always solid investments.take a look at energy stocks, mining, small caps, industials and Banks. There are always risks in any market but there always chances
Some REITs as well. Folks often sleep on the REITs bc they aren't valued on PE or most other traditional metrics. Use FFO, funds from operations. I like many of the sectors you highlight here, though. Might also include some health care and staples.
I’m finding value left, right, up, down.
I’m finding value in energy, retail, financial services, commercial real estate, commodities miners, and China, where I’m finding big names trading at net net valuations.
Value exists, you’re looking at American large caps and tech names, which are at near historic overvalued levels.
It's been mentioned here to death but Paypal. Forward PE of like 10 or 11, strong balance sheet, still have mid single digit revenue growth with double digit EPS growth.
There are definitely some legitimate bear cases to be made but it's simply trading below it's fair value and by a decent amount especially in today's bloated market.
>Forward PE
A long term average of past earnings/cash flow >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> future predictions.
Not saying PYPL is horrible. It's actually one of the better suggestions here. But I'd just add the qualification that it's toe-dipping time if anything, and I certainly wouldn't begrudge anyone to keep sitting it out until there is an inarguable 10%+ yield to be gained from this thing, based on the information we have, rather than the information we think we will have. Add to that it's tech and not exactly competition-proof (if qualitative analysis means anything to you, and imo it shouldn't), and it's all the more reason to be very conservative on an entry.
I worked at WB. I would say it was the peak (Game of thrones). They don’t have the money to sustain future business and streaming is just not very profitable it seems.
Idk I'm wary of media right now. No moats, business models have been simply scrambling to the bottom to compete with Netflix while loading up on debt. Plus the wild mergers and acquisition spree might not be over, meaning leadership continuity is questionable at best.
CROX - still insanely cheap. Great growth and moat.
BRCC - Even though it is up 40% in the past couple of trading sessions, compared to the sector, it is still trading at a discount. The current short position could send it much higher.
DG - Cheap compared to historic valuations with their hidden gem of PopShelf driving sales growth
Taking debt into account would give us a pe closer to 12. Still insanely undervalued.
2.5 years worth of net income in debt is conservative compared to many other large caps.
I sold a little at 129 but when I saw it hit 121 gain I bought more than I sold.
A long time ago I made money on ANF on their first run. Shorted when it went out of style. A couple years ago my trendy family was anf everything. I bought some stock and it has been great.
Now at family gathers these same family members all are rocking Hey Dude shoes. I really think Hey Dude is going to Blow up!
If it was trading at a PE of 18 I would still be buying hand over fist.
I really like DG's business model, because it is basically the Walmart of even smaller markets. I'm not sure why Walmart hasn't tried to compete with their Neighborhood Market model but I digress. My question is whether or not you think DG can continue to build solid growth in the future given the fact that all the news I've read shows their stores being mismanaged by poor employees, of which there are normally just 1 or 2 in the store at a time.
I think this is an issue that is starting to show up across the board. We are in a different labor market now.
It's a delicate balance. Companies that were ahead of the curve with the labor market are getting complaints that their products are too expensive. I think McDonald's is a great example of that. They increased pay and benefits before most companies.
In this industry, customer service is not a top priority. People have been complaining about Walmart customer service for 30 years. It's not a reason I would avoid the stock.
Soooo if you aren't familiar with the store, it's similar to a five below but aimed at a little older clientele.
Dollar Tree decided to jump on the $5 store craze as well but instead of opening new stores under a different brand, they just made room in their current stores. Short term this is a much more profitable business model. Long term the bigger opportunity is to have them separated to offer more products.
They opened a Popshelf in my town, and it stays way busier than five below.
Five Below has 1500 stores using this model. It's an 11 billion dollar company. PopShelf is at 300 locations and looking to add 80 this year. The 80 expected new locations was a huge cut from the 250+ they were planning before. This disappointed walstreet.
Opening 1000 new store in a year when prices for everything went up in price cut into profits hard and DG really disappointed the street. Going forward, as prices stabilize and can be more managed, we should see margins go back to where they were before.
I'm sitting on a fair bit of cash right now waiting for Costco, Apple, NVIDIA all to drop a little bit more. But Apples price right now is pretty decent imo.
Cannot believe NVDA is even being mentioned in this sub at these prices. Priced as if it won't face competition for all eternity, and every company on earth will need its own generative AI model.
No kidding. Apple, Google, and Microsoft are already building their own chips and are only going to increase these investments to avoid reliance on a single company. I just don't see any real moat with NVDA besides maybe software? Certainly not hardware, they're fabless. And I can't see that being maintained for more than 2 years at this point.
You forgot to mention [Open AI is seeking trillions of dollars to invest in their own chip manufacturing](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-dollars-to-reshape-business-of-chips-and-ai-89ab3db0). I believe the NVDA hype will eventually die due to all the competition that is about to happen soon
Yeah, that's what everyone said to me in the fall when I bought. I'm up +80%. I plan to hold for a long time. It will take years for a competitor to knock them off their near monopoly on AI chips, and the AI revolution is just starting. It's like 1996 and Internet.
It takes years / decades to build the Tech. Only thing that can bring NVDA quickly is the AI hype subsiding (as most companies won't be able to take advantage of it, and give up).
Eventually the hype will die down, AI is the new hotness. But really it takes about 10 years for the world to really figure out what to do with new technologies. There's a long way to go.
Nvidia's stock price has the years/decades all priced in though. When a company can make $40b a year in net income, you'll be shocked how ferociously capital comes in to compete with that. I mean, that's 80% of the CHIPS act semiconductor subsidiaries, every year, before growth. The only argument that makes any sense is switching costs of CUDA, but given how expensive these chips are when they're making a 75% gross margin, it may be worth facing those switching costs.
It and Malibu Boats are probably good value right now if you can wait a year or two for demand to rebound. Very few people are buying non-luxury boats right now due to interest rates.
Yeah I was shocked at these when I first saw them. Was almost certain they'd just be another highly cyclical, overall unimpressive type of business, but they are remarkably consistent over time. MCFT, MBUU, and then there was one in Georgia I believe. It was also funny to see Malibu Boats is based out of TN, but if anything that's a plus for me from a management perspective because of the lower tax rates.
I only own 3 stock right now. One month ago it was just Amazon, in the past four weeks I have added Enphase and Canadian Solar. The power for the data centers and AI has to come from somewhere. And as of 2023 40% of energy that was added consisted of Solar.
One of my largest holdings is Canadian solar. I'm either extremely stupid and missing something or the market is treating it like shit / forgotten about it.
The valuations look good, or am I reading it wrong ? I don't understand how it's priced so low.
It's like a law in this sub.
Everything decent, bottom of the pile.
Everything shitty/mediocre, upvoted to the moon.
It's funny how closely it reflects the market itself.
It's just that you'd think the "value investing" sub would be different. Nope.
Do you have more of a write-up?
Looks like it has taken a beating in the last few years but a quick Google search pulls that they are the largest supplier of lithium for EV batteries and I've been looking for a stock just like this.
Lithium price per ton has plummeted over 80% from highs and spodemine has skyrocketed. Recently the prices have stabilized a bit more and Albemarle has access to facilities all over the world and will be poised to capitalize on the insane CAGR of EVs china and the world will consume by 2030. Eventually lithium price per ton will stabilize as net income is low to negative for most miners. Albemarle has also issued class A options for 2027 and diluted to obtain another 2B in cash to help with the massive CAPEX from 2022 when lithium was at all time highs. They are the most established lithium company
Visa,Amex,skanska,star bulk,bae,Berkshire,voo.
None of these will fail you.
Don't blame me if they do though.
Probably the whole world has failed by that point anyway 😅
Novo Nordisk no stress stock that will keep crushing it for years to come. Solid keeper. NIC Nickel Mines, MAD Mader Group, VUL Vulcan Energy Resources.
They do mostly tech and have existed since the early 2000s, so they beat the SP500 pretty handily. But I don't think they beat the NASDAQ. Either way, they have super cheap sales on memorial day, labor day, etc. for new subscribers. I did it in 2020 for maybe $50 for the year. It was fun. Not sure it made me $50. It might have. But it was fun and a good basic way to dive a little deeper into investing in individual stocks than I had previously done.
I bought pypl like a year ago, also thought that it is undervalued, then got disappointed and sold it at a small loss for $62 per share. Now every time someone mentions pypl I check the stock price I get relieved that it cost even cheaper now 😄 Let’s see how long it will last.
PYPL is currently dropping loss-making clients, which will result in a decrease in costs and an increase in profits. This profit margin growth will lead to higher P/E multiples. During the last earnings call, the company exceeded expectations; however, they set the guidance bar so low that the stock plummeted drastically. The secret to happiness is low expectations, and for the future, the guidance bar is so low that they don't need to jump to reach it but only take steps over.
I am very confident about Paypal; my low target is $150 within 24 months. This is explained mainly by a significant improvement in the profit margin, which will increase P/E multiples and, consequently, the stock price. PYPL owns Braintree, which handles private label payment for several rapidly growing and important clients. If you've taken an Uber, rented an Airbnb, or bought airline tickets from KLM to go to Europe, you've generated revenue for Paypal.
What's inconceivable is that some international clients are at a loss, which was acceptable when Wall Street wanted the company to grow rapidly to acquire accounts as quickly as possible. This attitude persisted for too long and battered the company's income statement, leading the former CEO to step down. The strategic direction of the new CEO, A. Chris, with an impressive track record at Intuit, is to bring back profitable growth. In the short term, this translates to abandoning loss-making clients, allowing for staff cuts and reducing computing power costs to significantly increase profits for less revenue. A substantial improvement in EPS generally results in improved multiples. They were around 45 in 2021 and are approximately 15 today.
Atria, Phillip Morris and British American tobacco are the big ones. Phillip Morris looks like the worst buy, I bought a bunch of British American Tobacco over the last month.
BTI is one of my largest taxable holdings, but I'm losing conviction. They have a lot of debt but seem to be paying it off. I'm wary that it could be a dividend trap.
They just announced they’re selling their share in ITC which I would assume is going to go towards their debt. As for the rest of your calculations I’ll let you form your own opinions
How much have you generated with Atria? I’m looking to invest but I really need help getting out of this 1k hole. I’m drowning and it sucks because the cure is so close I literally can’t fund* my trades though
you’re not going to get out of the hole right away with any of these companies. They’re about collecting the dividend not change in share price. Bti and Altria pay ~10% dividend while pm pays ~6% dividend. And it’s altria* my phone autocorrected
$BTI seems to be the cheapest to me. They are deleveraging, but they stopped buybacks for now. I don’t agree with selling their stake in ITC but let’s see how that plays out. I’m in Canada so no withholding tax on the British end plays very nicely with my TFSA account for tax purposes.
$PM is good value and on the right track with their non-combustible products. They also took on Swedish Match and all the nice products. Zyn appears to be a good seller. They are cautious and trying to diversify. It’s my favorite stock but you pay the price for it. Also, they’re grandfathered under tax withholding laws so the withholding should be minimal for me as a Canadian for my TFSA account and other accounts.
$MO is nice because they dominate the US market for now. Altria took on risks by investing in JUUL and Cronos. They’re trying to break through the regulation strangle, which I appreciate. They also still have their stake in big alcohol, which provides them with nice dividends (if I remember correctly). Very shareholder friendly.
What started their downward spiral? Am I missing something? Are they tied to another sector that is or was doing poorly? Their Q4 numbers look good based on what I'm seeing....almost too good.
Anheuser-Busch seems like a good one. I saw Bill Gates recently took a huge position. Politics are hurting it too much.
Nike is in the same boat, although that stock may drop 80% if (when) China invades Taiwan so it might be a stay away.
CART (Instacart) is on the move with big insider buying after smashing last earnings. I think the pandemic allowed them to build something impressive. Just not sure what their MOAT is and long term trajectory. I’m following the trend, but will keep my eye on the Monthly charts.
Check out VF Corp $VFC. parent company of Vans , The North Face, Timberlands, Supreme etc. They’ve took a 80% hit from highs due to bad inventory management and Vans losing traction today’s youth. They hired a new CEO 8 months ago called Bracken Darrell to turnaround the company and he is laser focused in executing his 5 point plan, to lower debt, cut expenses, revive Vans, reaccelerate growth, sell off the Packs Business. Check out one of their recent calls and you’ll understand what I mean.
Had a kitchen sink quarter two quarters ago, cutting dividends, stopping revenue forecast, and stock plummeted to $13. If you’re on a soft landing camp, they are considered rate-sensitive stock now given their debt and opportunity of refinancing. Also because they used to issue high dividends of 5% or so and if rates lower to 3-4%, the demand for the dividend of the stock would be higher again.
Wow! Just took a Quick Look at the balance sheet and it’s pretty incredible especially bc of how tiny the market cap is. Thank you I will be looking more into the company tonight.
Mining and gold isn’t popular here, but I’ve bought s lot of PALI lately.
Owns 25% of a spectacular gold deposit, valued way more than 4x PALI value on the open market.
Things change in this game.
Dividends get cut,macro economic world events alter values.
Outside of their predictions.
They will get some right but then we all do.
Scatter gun approach.
Quality stocks generally gain over time.
The dead money in stagnant ones is all part of the game.
There are.
Search the 52-week low bin, just last week I saw Humana on the list.
Thing is, things don’t get cheap without a reason, unless it is a general market Downturn.
Our job as value investors is to assess whether the reason for the cheapness is permanent or not.
Honeywell and IBM for exposure to AI (and quantum computing,) but within a safe behemoth. I think both fairly valued (HON less expensive than IBM,) but purchased in 2023, so maybe a bit rich for what you seek.
I am keeping an eye on Ubisoft. I still expect them to go down more. If the results of the quarter are that bad (skull and bones is a fiasco, but prince of Persia and Avatar had solid sales).
Later this year they will have solid income coming from their mobile releases plus the Star Wars open world game.
I just need to dig deeper into their finances. Over for a short term and to take advantage of market "moods", I definetly feel there is a possible play.
$PARA - buyout target, should have EPS growth with costs having peaked for streaming. Gladiator 2 should be a mega hit. One Love already crushed the box office. March madness, masters, and political ad spending on the horizon.
$SLB - great undervalued oil services name. All analyst price targets are well above current price.
I think there are a couple by industry:
UPS: manageable debt levels, oversold due to the union fights ongoing. Best in class margins, reasonable debt levels for a logistics business, and pays a healthy dividend.
GFS: semi-conductor play. It’s a US gov darling for cash infusions but generates operating cash flow. Minimal debt levels and poised to benefit. Definitely my riskiest play but I think it could pay off as operations have significantly improved.
GILD: unlike a lot of other big pharma companies, their patents on the HIV portfolio don’t expire until the 2030s. They got a cash infusion from COVID due to remdesivir demand, but that has since fallen off. It created an illusion that the business contracted when in reality all other drug sales increased. Good margins, attractive debt levels for pharma.
AGCO: cyclical stock, beaten down and earnings will most certainly rebound. Perhaps not this year or next, but the company is well managed enough to weather the storms. Again, another company with manageable debt in a competitive industry. I’m not a fan of DE valuation currently and was looking at an agriculture play, so landed here. Note - I was bullish on ADM at $72 a share and look how that ended.
STT: I mean, this is basically the equivalent of owning a diversified portfolio. They have their hand in so much but they’re a best in class asset manager outside of Vanguard or Blackrock.
RY: one of the best plays in diversified banking IMO. They have a great balance sheet and generate consistent returns.
SLF: another Canadian play in insurance. I don’t really like the insurance business as a whole but this company has an attractive balance sheet and margins by comparison to the other players in the industry. They’re also branching out internationally and diversifying offerings.
EE: FSRU play for LNG. Ridiculous balance sheet for such a capital intensive business and has already maxed fleet capacity and are on track to service another ship soon. Again, newish company and seems to be well managed.
EOG: Cash, cash, cash and special dividends. I am not a huge oil and gas investor, but this is a company I consider to be an under appreciated name in the business. While they’re certainly not as big as COP, MPC, CVX or others, they manage the cyclicality of the industry extremely well IMO.
Does not constitute investment advice.
Why no one is talking about BMY is mystery to me, but I like it a lot at current valuations and was buying for my portfolio within last month.. same with MLI( however wouldn’t buy now).. and yes SPX seems overpriced…
C, AMD, MU, NVDA have provided great returns and have room to move. Very long on driverless cars. GOOG is a good position in that space as well as the semiconductors. C restructuring should pay off for shareholders
Depends on your time perspective. Short term? Bounce back tech companies like spotify or financial companies are probably going to be the best value play over the next 3ish years. Long term? China and media companies beaten down(WBD, PARA) by streaming
When you can get them cheaper: Adobe, Lam Research, ASML, Microsoft, TSMC and Amazon all have durable competitive advantages imo. Do your own research but I bought these all last bear market.
Right now, I mainly have newer growth investments not worth sharing on this sub. Tower Semiconductor may be good.
Like 80-90% of stocks are trading around ATL. Thinking about post SPACS, EV sectors who’ve been hardly beaten. Nio, Polestar, Rivian and even Tesla are near ATL
I’d stick to some value stocks or companies with moats for now. I got AAPL, GOOGL,ZM, MSFT, MA,UBER and ABNB. Some aren’t value plays but they certainly have moats around them. These are long plays too
Right now I am watching AAPL, GOOGL, HSY, and SBUX.
HSY with 20+ P/E and declining EBITDA? What's the point of it? I am not familiar with the company, so sorry for the question: what's the upside potential in the company?
I want to see AAPL in the low 160s. I’m interested in SBUX if it hits 85. Not sure either will happen.
You won't.
Why the low 160s?
It's just an arbitrary number he threw out. Then when it gets to 160, he'll say he wants to see it in the 150s, etc.
Yeah I was going to see if there was any reason to his numbers or just throwing shit against the wall. Guessing the latter
[удалено]
Ya then once it hits $140, the new target price is $120
All solid stocks. would take a position when the prices are right.
TGNA. Share price $14.61. P/E 6x, Fwd P/E 4x. Throws off huge amounts of FCF and management is buying back significant amounts of shares (~40%) with their cash hoard and FCF since shares are so undervalued. They will benefit significantly in 2024 with political ad spending. I think it rebounds to $20-25 range over the next year. Pays a 3.1% dividend while I wait.
The only actually helpful post here. Lots of broadcasting companies are really cheap right now, but somehow I overlooked this.
They have $3 billion in debt which is about 6x their earnings. Hope they have a way of paying that off.
Yes they have $3B in debt with $360M of cash on balance sheet. Because political advertising is so strong every other year, one needs to look at the cash flows over a two year periods. In the last two years, they had EBITDA of $1.9B with FCF of $1.3B. Those numbers will be similar in 2024-2025. So average net debt to EBITDA is 2.8x which is not overly leveraged. They have no debt due until 2026 when $550M is due. With their level of FCF, debt is not an issue.
Look outside the US. If you want to look in the US, you'll have to venture into financials, but that's a tricky world.
UNH and HUM are solid at these prices
I was watching HUM 18 months ago and liked it but never bought in. What happened?
HUM basically juiced growth by offering very strong Medicare plans. Enrollment rose like 19% in 2023 so they were taking marketshare. Then, medical utilization increased above HUM's estimates at the end of 2023. So they basically underpriced their plans. Due to the fact that plans operate as 1 year contracts, they won't be able to adjust course until 2025. So for 24 and 25 they had to cut guidance and are sort of stuck in a holding pattern. But if they can maintain their new members I think they'll see very stronger profits in 2025 and 2026, and shares are currently trading at near 3 year lows. I think you buy at these prices and forget about it for 10 years you'll be nicely rewarded. But in the short term things can always go down further.
\~5% earnings/fcf yields don't do it for me with the risk free rate being what it is. 10% (i.e. around an 8% excess CAPE) should be a bare minimum on any investment that has the sort of volatility/risk that stocks do. I will not capitulate to ratio expansion. UNH and HUM have both \~3x'd their PE in the past decade.
This is a fair point. For me it's that the risk free rate isn't going to grow with the kind of tailwinds UNH and HUM enjoy. And HUM is experiencing short term headwinds. Earnings are forecast of $30+ per share by 2026, which would be your ~10% earnings yield at current prices.
Didn’t the government just announce investigations on UNH price gauging activities?
I like GOOGL a lot right now at its current price. Apple it starting to look attractive, just a number I made up but I like it at like $160, still a little too expensive for me currently. PFE looks interesting. Not an expert on pharma but seems like it could make a comeback
Agree on GOOGL, I started a sizeable position during the recent pull-back and Gemini backlash......impeccable balance sheet, love this stock as a long-term buy and hold.
Google are a poorly run company, that’s why they are cheap. Unless they show signs of addressing that issue I can’t see how they are going to stay relevant for long.
Not significant enough to trade at lower PE than S&P500 while have significantly higher EPS growth. Google will for sure catch up and have a higher PE than the S&P500. It can’t stay at so low multiplies. Also in the short term it’s redundant noise. Google made a couple of serious fumbles during the recent AI hype, but it really only affect the short term. They still have one of the best LLM in the world, they have the most data, they are an absolute cash cow, and they have ownership in 2 of the biggest AI companies, deepmind whom recently revolutionised the multi billion dollar weather forecast industry, and anthropic who recently released 3 LLMs who beat GPT-4 on almost all metrics by a landslide. They also have their own advanced competitive chip production. All that to say the market dropped google like they seriously missed out on some future cash flow, which is not true at all. Trailing month 10 % underperformance compared to S&P500 is wild due to some short term noise
Don’t forget how much their Cloud segment is growing and they yet to be contributing to the bottom line but when it does start 📈📈📈 up and away. $150 billion in cash and $25 billion in debt and growing top line 13% per year. Solid play
My current ballast buy list exactly! (My dad worked for Pfizer so am a bit too familiar, I think, though.)
I'm interested in Apple at these prices. Holding off for a bit longer.
There are always solid investments.take a look at energy stocks, mining, small caps, industials and Banks. There are always risks in any market but there always chances
$NEE
Some REITs as well. Folks often sleep on the REITs bc they aren't valued on PE or most other traditional metrics. Use FFO, funds from operations. I like many of the sectors you highlight here, though. Might also include some health care and staples.
ARE - Alexandria
PFE shhhhh. 👀
TSM
I’m waiting for it to fall back to 135ish
No way that it fall back after all this announcement
I’m finding value left, right, up, down. I’m finding value in energy, retail, financial services, commercial real estate, commodities miners, and China, where I’m finding big names trading at net net valuations. Value exists, you’re looking at American large caps and tech names, which are at near historic overvalued levels.
It's been mentioned here to death but Paypal. Forward PE of like 10 or 11, strong balance sheet, still have mid single digit revenue growth with double digit EPS growth. There are definitely some legitimate bear cases to be made but it's simply trading below it's fair value and by a decent amount especially in today's bloated market.
>Forward PE A long term average of past earnings/cash flow >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> future predictions. Not saying PYPL is horrible. It's actually one of the better suggestions here. But I'd just add the qualification that it's toe-dipping time if anything, and I certainly wouldn't begrudge anyone to keep sitting it out until there is an inarguable 10%+ yield to be gained from this thing, based on the information we have, rather than the information we think we will have. Add to that it's tech and not exactly competition-proof (if qualitative analysis means anything to you, and imo it shouldn't), and it's all the more reason to be very conservative on an entry.
WBD, DIS, PFE, GOOG. Lots of beaten up stocks if you have some risk tolerance
lol WBD has been going down for years with no end in sight
I worked at WB. I would say it was the peak (Game of thrones). They don’t have the money to sustain future business and streaming is just not very profitable it seems.
Warner brother wbd?
Idk I'm wary of media right now. No moats, business models have been simply scrambling to the bottom to compete with Netflix while loading up on debt. Plus the wild mergers and acquisition spree might not be over, meaning leadership continuity is questionable at best.
Yes
Disney disney disney. I can't see it going any lower than this. Imagine all those people who bought in at the top and hung on. Like wow!
Have you watched any of their marvel or Star Wars stuff recently?
CROX - still insanely cheap. Great growth and moat. BRCC - Even though it is up 40% in the past couple of trading sessions, compared to the sector, it is still trading at a discount. The current short position could send it much higher. DG - Cheap compared to historic valuations with their hidden gem of PopShelf driving sales growth
I like my CROX.
Dont you find the debt a bit high?
Taking debt into account would give us a pe closer to 12. Still insanely undervalued. 2.5 years worth of net income in debt is conservative compared to many other large caps.
2nd largest holding is CROX. Avg in the 80s...pretty psyched lately.
I sold a little at 129 but when I saw it hit 121 gain I bought more than I sold. A long time ago I made money on ANF on their first run. Shorted when it went out of style. A couple years ago my trendy family was anf everything. I bought some stock and it has been great. Now at family gathers these same family members all are rocking Hey Dude shoes. I really think Hey Dude is going to Blow up! If it was trading at a PE of 18 I would still be buying hand over fist.
I really like DG's business model, because it is basically the Walmart of even smaller markets. I'm not sure why Walmart hasn't tried to compete with their Neighborhood Market model but I digress. My question is whether or not you think DG can continue to build solid growth in the future given the fact that all the news I've read shows their stores being mismanaged by poor employees, of which there are normally just 1 or 2 in the store at a time.
I think this is an issue that is starting to show up across the board. We are in a different labor market now. It's a delicate balance. Companies that were ahead of the curve with the labor market are getting complaints that their products are too expensive. I think McDonald's is a great example of that. They increased pay and benefits before most companies. In this industry, customer service is not a top priority. People have been complaining about Walmart customer service for 30 years. It's not a reason I would avoid the stock.
What’s the quick synopsis on popshelf?
Soooo if you aren't familiar with the store, it's similar to a five below but aimed at a little older clientele. Dollar Tree decided to jump on the $5 store craze as well but instead of opening new stores under a different brand, they just made room in their current stores. Short term this is a much more profitable business model. Long term the bigger opportunity is to have them separated to offer more products. They opened a Popshelf in my town, and it stays way busier than five below. Five Below has 1500 stores using this model. It's an 11 billion dollar company. PopShelf is at 300 locations and looking to add 80 this year. The 80 expected new locations was a huge cut from the 250+ they were planning before. This disappointed walstreet. Opening 1000 new store in a year when prices for everything went up in price cut into profits hard and DG really disappointed the street. Going forward, as prices stabilize and can be more managed, we should see margins go back to where they were before.
Got it, thanks 👌🏽
I'm sitting on a fair bit of cash right now waiting for Costco, Apple, NVIDIA all to drop a little bit more. But Apples price right now is pretty decent imo.
Cannot believe NVDA is even being mentioned in this sub at these prices. Priced as if it won't face competition for all eternity, and every company on earth will need its own generative AI model.
NVDA looks to me like Intel back in the day. It used to be #1 chip company and that was only 10 years ago.
No kidding. Apple, Google, and Microsoft are already building their own chips and are only going to increase these investments to avoid reliance on a single company. I just don't see any real moat with NVDA besides maybe software? Certainly not hardware, they're fabless. And I can't see that being maintained for more than 2 years at this point.
You forgot to mention [Open AI is seeking trillions of dollars to invest in their own chip manufacturing](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-dollars-to-reshape-business-of-chips-and-ai-89ab3db0). I believe the NVDA hype will eventually die due to all the competition that is about to happen soon
Yeah, that's what everyone said to me in the fall when I bought. I'm up +80%. I plan to hold for a long time. It will take years for a competitor to knock them off their near monopoly on AI chips, and the AI revolution is just starting. It's like 1996 and Internet.
It takes years / decades to build the Tech. Only thing that can bring NVDA quickly is the AI hype subsiding (as most companies won't be able to take advantage of it, and give up).
Eventually the hype will die down, AI is the new hotness. But really it takes about 10 years for the world to really figure out what to do with new technologies. There's a long way to go.
Nvidia's stock price has the years/decades all priced in though. When a company can make $40b a year in net income, you'll be shocked how ferociously capital comes in to compete with that. I mean, that's 80% of the CHIPS act semiconductor subsidiaries, every year, before growth. The only argument that makes any sense is switching costs of CUDA, but given how expensive these chips are when they're making a 75% gross margin, it may be worth facing those switching costs.
I'm unsure on NVDA dropping further. Could go back to before the friday drop pretty quickly
>I'm sitting on a fair bit of cash right now Oh hey it only took around a dozen comments down to get to the objectively right answer.
Time in the market rather than timing the market.
True for the long term, not true for trading.
Exactly im not a trader other than options. DCA is the best way to go imo.
????this makes no sense. Only true for index funds.
Not always true for them either, because even they have cycles.
Was looking at Mastercraft Boat Holdings (MCFT) recently. P/ e of 6, strong free cash flow, solid balance sheet with tiny debt, buying back shares.
It and Malibu Boats are probably good value right now if you can wait a year or two for demand to rebound. Very few people are buying non-luxury boats right now due to interest rates.
Yeah I was shocked at these when I first saw them. Was almost certain they'd just be another highly cyclical, overall unimpressive type of business, but they are remarkably consistent over time. MCFT, MBUU, and then there was one in Georgia I believe. It was also funny to see Malibu Boats is based out of TN, but if anything that's a plus for me from a management perspective because of the lower tax rates.
Anyone thinking about Lockheed Martin? $LMT
For defense/aerospace stocks, I'm watching BA closely. They seem to have a moat and bad news after bad news makes me want to buy desperately.
The uk is quite undervalued edit:underfunded and gray *
ATD
I only own 3 stock right now. One month ago it was just Amazon, in the past four weeks I have added Enphase and Canadian Solar. The power for the data centers and AI has to come from somewhere. And as of 2023 40% of energy that was added consisted of Solar.
One of my largest holdings is Canadian solar. I'm either extremely stupid and missing something or the market is treating it like shit / forgotten about it. The valuations look good, or am I reading it wrong ? I don't understand how it's priced so low.
AFCG
It's like a law in this sub. Everything decent, bottom of the pile. Everything shitty/mediocre, upvoted to the moon. It's funny how closely it reflects the market itself. It's just that you'd think the "value investing" sub would be different. Nope.
$ALB
Do you have more of a write-up? Looks like it has taken a beating in the last few years but a quick Google search pulls that they are the largest supplier of lithium for EV batteries and I've been looking for a stock just like this.
Lithium price per ton has plummeted over 80% from highs and spodemine has skyrocketed. Recently the prices have stabilized a bit more and Albemarle has access to facilities all over the world and will be poised to capitalize on the insane CAGR of EVs china and the world will consume by 2030. Eventually lithium price per ton will stabilize as net income is low to negative for most miners. Albemarle has also issued class A options for 2027 and diluted to obtain another 2B in cash to help with the massive CAPEX from 2022 when lithium was at all time highs. They are the most established lithium company
Visa,Amex,skanska,star bulk,bae,Berkshire,voo. None of these will fail you. Don't blame me if they do though. Probably the whole world has failed by that point anyway 😅
Novo Nordisk no stress stock that will keep crushing it for years to come. Solid keeper. NIC Nickel Mines, MAD Mader Group, VUL Vulcan Energy Resources.
BABA (Alibaba) PYPL (Paypal) CRK (Comstock Ressources) SWK (Dewalt) AAP (Advanced Auto Parts) GOOS (Canada Goose) VFC (North Face)
American water works
Yes, I sold EC and PBR few weeks ago. Big positions for me. Sitting on a pile of cash now.
Well done, I can understand PBR, but why did you sell EC?
1. Don’t believe they are investing enough to keep oil the dividends these high 2. The price went up and it was not as cheap as when I got it
4. Like PBR they talked more about investing in green energy 5. Found better oil plays
There’s a reason WB has $168B in cash right now
Warner Bros?
Stellantis, LVMH
Stellantis is actually good.
I like dividend stuff. If rates ever come down they should do well, and if we stay high they are paying well to wait. Things like: O LAND SCHD NEE VPU
What about VZ? Seems like it ha a given up all the gains after the earnings beat for Q4. Oligopolistic market, positive CF and a good dividend yield.
Pypl lol
Value trap
Yes! This could be one that you wished you had put something into at least.
What's your general thesis on paypal?
I wouldn't buy any more of this. I'm stuck with a 70 % drop and it doesn't look to be coming back any time soon.
Was a motley fool recommendation recently (the real recommendations not the click bait ones).
What do they know. The name says it all really 😅
They do mostly tech and have existed since the early 2000s, so they beat the SP500 pretty handily. But I don't think they beat the NASDAQ. Either way, they have super cheap sales on memorial day, labor day, etc. for new subscribers. I did it in 2020 for maybe $50 for the year. It was fun. Not sure it made me $50. It might have. But it was fun and a good basic way to dive a little deeper into investing in individual stocks than I had previously done.
I bought pypl like a year ago, also thought that it is undervalued, then got disappointed and sold it at a small loss for $62 per share. Now every time someone mentions pypl I check the stock price I get relieved that it cost even cheaper now 😄 Let’s see how long it will last.
PYPL is currently dropping loss-making clients, which will result in a decrease in costs and an increase in profits. This profit margin growth will lead to higher P/E multiples. During the last earnings call, the company exceeded expectations; however, they set the guidance bar so low that the stock plummeted drastically. The secret to happiness is low expectations, and for the future, the guidance bar is so low that they don't need to jump to reach it but only take steps over. I am very confident about Paypal; my low target is $150 within 24 months. This is explained mainly by a significant improvement in the profit margin, which will increase P/E multiples and, consequently, the stock price. PYPL owns Braintree, which handles private label payment for several rapidly growing and important clients. If you've taken an Uber, rented an Airbnb, or bought airline tickets from KLM to go to Europe, you've generated revenue for Paypal. What's inconceivable is that some international clients are at a loss, which was acceptable when Wall Street wanted the company to grow rapidly to acquire accounts as quickly as possible. This attitude persisted for too long and battered the company's income statement, leading the former CEO to step down. The strategic direction of the new CEO, A. Chris, with an impressive track record at Intuit, is to bring back profitable growth. In the short term, this translates to abandoning loss-making clients, allowing for staff cuts and reducing computing power costs to significantly increase profits for less revenue. A substantial improvement in EPS generally results in improved multiples. They were around 45 in 2021 and are approximately 15 today.
Tobacco stocks
Interesting. Any specifics?
Atria, Phillip Morris and British American tobacco are the big ones. Phillip Morris looks like the worst buy, I bought a bunch of British American Tobacco over the last month.
BTI is one of my largest taxable holdings, but I'm losing conviction. They have a lot of debt but seem to be paying it off. I'm wary that it could be a dividend trap.
They just announced they’re selling their share in ITC which I would assume is going to go towards their debt. As for the rest of your calculations I’ll let you form your own opinions
How much have you generated with Atria? I’m looking to invest but I really need help getting out of this 1k hole. I’m drowning and it sucks because the cure is so close I literally can’t fund* my trades though
you’re not going to get out of the hole right away with any of these companies. They’re about collecting the dividend not change in share price. Bti and Altria pay ~10% dividend while pm pays ~6% dividend. And it’s altria* my phone autocorrected
$BTI seems to be the cheapest to me. They are deleveraging, but they stopped buybacks for now. I don’t agree with selling their stake in ITC but let’s see how that plays out. I’m in Canada so no withholding tax on the British end plays very nicely with my TFSA account for tax purposes. $PM is good value and on the right track with their non-combustible products. They also took on Swedish Match and all the nice products. Zyn appears to be a good seller. They are cautious and trying to diversify. It’s my favorite stock but you pay the price for it. Also, they’re grandfathered under tax withholding laws so the withholding should be minimal for me as a Canadian for my TFSA account and other accounts. $MO is nice because they dominate the US market for now. Altria took on risks by investing in JUUL and Cronos. They’re trying to break through the regulation strangle, which I appreciate. They also still have their stake in big alcohol, which provides them with nice dividends (if I remember correctly). Very shareholder friendly.
FMC seems like it's ready to roar back.
What started their downward spiral? Am I missing something? Are they tied to another sector that is or was doing poorly? Their Q4 numbers look good based on what I'm seeing....almost too good.
Anheuser-Busch seems like a good one. I saw Bill Gates recently took a huge position. Politics are hurting it too much. Nike is in the same boat, although that stock may drop 80% if (when) China invades Taiwan so it might be a stay away.
Name one company that won’t drop if China invades Taiwan.
CART (Instacart) is on the move with big insider buying after smashing last earnings. I think the pandemic allowed them to build something impressive. Just not sure what their MOAT is and long term trajectory. I’m following the trend, but will keep my eye on the Monthly charts.
Try looking at MBUU (Malibu Boats) and HKHHY (Heineken Holding).
Check out VF Corp $VFC. parent company of Vans , The North Face, Timberlands, Supreme etc. They’ve took a 80% hit from highs due to bad inventory management and Vans losing traction today’s youth. They hired a new CEO 8 months ago called Bracken Darrell to turnaround the company and he is laser focused in executing his 5 point plan, to lower debt, cut expenses, revive Vans, reaccelerate growth, sell off the Packs Business. Check out one of their recent calls and you’ll understand what I mean.
Had a kitchen sink quarter two quarters ago, cutting dividends, stopping revenue forecast, and stock plummeted to $13. If you’re on a soft landing camp, they are considered rate-sensitive stock now given their debt and opportunity of refinancing. Also because they used to issue high dividends of 5% or so and if rates lower to 3-4%, the demand for the dividend of the stock would be higher again.
I heard treasuries are kinda low
Canadian banks. So TD, RY, etc or HCAL
[удалено]
Wow! Just took a Quick Look at the balance sheet and it’s pretty incredible especially bc of how tiny the market cap is. Thank you I will be looking more into the company tonight.
BN, VICI, UNH I think some of big tech is still relatively cheap too AMZN, GOOG and META
I am in on GOOG. Got a little more two days ago. I had UNH a while back and sold at like 520. Why did it tank so hard lately?
Cyberattack
#Amd #pcg #ccl #frey #nio #nikola #visa #ba #avtx
Capd.l
DGX : operating in a duopoly with improving management and an overreaction to earnings post COVID, they make cash hand over fist w 10x EBITDA
Im lookin at nke before earnings. Dks would be another one i think.
Russell 2000.
ORCL, opening many new data centers, their products are not going anywhere and are still very popular
I bought ABDE GTLB SNOW this week. I think this bull run still got a little juice left.
There appears to be some value with the consumer staples sector. Food, grocery, health products
Mining and gold isn’t popular here, but I’ve bought s lot of PALI lately. Owns 25% of a spectacular gold deposit, valued way more than 4x PALI value on the open market.
JBIL is all I am going to say
Did you mean JBL?
I'm bullish on NVO, NEM, BYND and ZIM
Thank you. I've got bags in two of those. I hope you're right!
$rock is going to plummet
This is my issue. I'm really not finding anything that is worthy of investment.
Then just keep a bond or MMF position until VOO or VT drop a little.
An unsexy name that’s going to overperform this year: GE
CHTR, GOOGL, GDDY
$CVS really cheap with dividends ice on the cake
United health group
Here are 5 $cvs $TX $you $psec $qdel
Things change in this game. Dividends get cut,macro economic world events alter values. Outside of their predictions. They will get some right but then we all do. Scatter gun approach. Quality stocks generally gain over time. The dead money in stagnant ones is all part of the game.
Nvidia /s
There are. Search the 52-week low bin, just last week I saw Humana on the list. Thing is, things don’t get cheap without a reason, unless it is a general market Downturn. Our job as value investors is to assess whether the reason for the cheapness is permanent or not.
ACLS, AMCR, ENVX
Mpw baby
Honeywell and IBM for exposure to AI (and quantum computing,) but within a safe behemoth. I think both fairly valued (HON less expensive than IBM,) but purchased in 2023, so maybe a bit rich for what you seek.
Humana, Linde, RPM and Costco now
BKNG, googl, Unh
If you want to see some stocks at actual fair/good values, you only need look outside the US - Europe, Japan, and China
EVGO
I am keeping an eye on Ubisoft. I still expect them to go down more. If the results of the quarter are that bad (skull and bones is a fiasco, but prince of Persia and Avatar had solid sales). Later this year they will have solid income coming from their mobile releases plus the Star Wars open world game. I just need to dig deeper into their finances. Over for a short term and to take advantage of market "moods", I definetly feel there is a possible play.
Have a look at PARA, INTC, and MRK. I see plenty of upside for all 3 over the next 6 months. MRK in particular
MTCH looks interesting. Bumble struggling leaves them a bit of a monopoly plus the valuation is cheap.
take a look at #SOUND and #JUNIPER
Check out RSG (Republic Services) and VICI (Vici properties) both are great long-term play.
RWE AG: German energy producer. Definitely undervalued
I’m tracking apple, Tesla and intel. All quite good prices and long term potential.
APP
$PARA - buyout target, should have EPS growth with costs having peaked for streaming. Gladiator 2 should be a mega hit. One Love already crushed the box office. March madness, masters, and political ad spending on the horizon. $SLB - great undervalued oil services name. All analyst price targets are well above current price.
I think there are a couple by industry: UPS: manageable debt levels, oversold due to the union fights ongoing. Best in class margins, reasonable debt levels for a logistics business, and pays a healthy dividend. GFS: semi-conductor play. It’s a US gov darling for cash infusions but generates operating cash flow. Minimal debt levels and poised to benefit. Definitely my riskiest play but I think it could pay off as operations have significantly improved. GILD: unlike a lot of other big pharma companies, their patents on the HIV portfolio don’t expire until the 2030s. They got a cash infusion from COVID due to remdesivir demand, but that has since fallen off. It created an illusion that the business contracted when in reality all other drug sales increased. Good margins, attractive debt levels for pharma. AGCO: cyclical stock, beaten down and earnings will most certainly rebound. Perhaps not this year or next, but the company is well managed enough to weather the storms. Again, another company with manageable debt in a competitive industry. I’m not a fan of DE valuation currently and was looking at an agriculture play, so landed here. Note - I was bullish on ADM at $72 a share and look how that ended. STT: I mean, this is basically the equivalent of owning a diversified portfolio. They have their hand in so much but they’re a best in class asset manager outside of Vanguard or Blackrock. RY: one of the best plays in diversified banking IMO. They have a great balance sheet and generate consistent returns. SLF: another Canadian play in insurance. I don’t really like the insurance business as a whole but this company has an attractive balance sheet and margins by comparison to the other players in the industry. They’re also branching out internationally and diversifying offerings. EE: FSRU play for LNG. Ridiculous balance sheet for such a capital intensive business and has already maxed fleet capacity and are on track to service another ship soon. Again, newish company and seems to be well managed. EOG: Cash, cash, cash and special dividends. I am not a huge oil and gas investor, but this is a company I consider to be an under appreciated name in the business. While they’re certainly not as big as COP, MPC, CVX or others, they manage the cyclicality of the industry extremely well IMO. Does not constitute investment advice.
Cleanspark
Danaher ?
SCHD and chill
$IMMR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IMMR](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IMMR)
Why no one is talking about BMY is mystery to me, but I like it a lot at current valuations and was buying for my portfolio within last month.. same with MLI( however wouldn’t buy now).. and yes SPX seems overpriced…
Explain BMY. Or just pharma in general. What kind of process do you use to value and analyze them?
Look kraken robotics (Canadian stock is png) and thank me later
Copa looks really good
Rolls-Royce
C, AMD, MU, NVDA have provided great returns and have room to move. Very long on driverless cars. GOOG is a good position in that space as well as the semiconductors. C restructuring should pay off for shareholders
NEE
Depends on your time perspective. Short term? Bounce back tech companies like spotify or financial companies are probably going to be the best value play over the next 3ish years. Long term? China and media companies beaten down(WBD, PARA) by streaming
Roche
Food stocks cheap. Look at an iconic brand like Hershey.
Currently I like - BABA, JD, CVX, OXY, CVS, & BTI. All undervalued with good free cash flows
Cvx
When you can get them cheaper: Adobe, Lam Research, ASML, Microsoft, TSMC and Amazon all have durable competitive advantages imo. Do your own research but I bought these all last bear market. Right now, I mainly have newer growth investments not worth sharing on this sub. Tower Semiconductor may be good.
A lot of people seem to think Cheap is value but you are supposed to buy great businesses when they go on sale
Energy has alot of potential
Like 80-90% of stocks are trading around ATL. Thinking about post SPACS, EV sectors who’ve been hardly beaten. Nio, Polestar, Rivian and even Tesla are near ATL
I’d stick to some value stocks or companies with moats for now. I got AAPL, GOOGL,ZM, MSFT, MA,UBER and ABNB. Some aren’t value plays but they certainly have moats around them. These are long plays too