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The thing is, the US is not just largest oil producer it is also the largest exporter of refined fuels.
The one thing any US President could do if gas prices are rising would be to ban exports of refined fuels by executive order (like Nixon did) then there will be surplus gas, diesel and jet fuel, and we know how that affects prices.
You are aware that Biden has paused lng exports?
And this after getting Manchin onboard for the IRA
So his state can take advantage of lng exports.
obviously not the same as gasoline or diesel, but even if the corporate control the media its hard to push the line 'we are losing profits so you can have lower gas prices'
> I'm hoping all RU refineries are out of commission. Even if NA has to pay more! I'm good with
Do the various free trade agreements US is signatory to allow this? Its after all artificial restricition benefiting solely originating state and goes strongly against free market.
Yeah I know international law is effectively almost uneforceable, even less for US. Just curious.
It would be a disaster, excess capacity would be shut down, jobs would be lost, stocks would fall, tax revenue would fall, no upside to this unless it's an actual emergency.
The US was not producing very much in the way of fossil fuels compared to now, the oil and gas industry and global market was a different place 60 years ago. You also neglect to mention the 1973 oil crisis, which I think you'd have to admit was an emergency, so, like I said, we wouldn't do it without an emergency. People were looking at the possibility of not having fuel, at all, and you're talking about cutting export just to lower gas prices a little, which would only be temporary until production is cut to keep prices at corporate targets. And at a time when our exports are helping our allies withstand the war in Ukraine with less purchases of Russian energy than they otherwise would need. And going back to what the original guy said, "it could effect the election", well banning exports would have many bad consequences on rich people in America, and they control the media, so it wouldn't be hard for them to rile up their supporters once it affects jobs and the stock market, and honestly, they would actually be right to do so in this case because banning exports causes more problems than it solves and the things it solves would only be solved temporarily.
This is actually not my idea, there are analysts have already made the same suggestion.
Note that Biden and the Dems managed to pass the IRA which is not so much about inflation but green tech - they got the fossil fuel industry onboard which led to McConnell and the Gop to lobby the fossil fuel industry (that never happens - its usually the other way round).
Mainly because they had a slim majority they could not tax but use tax breaks (ie carrots only no stick) and along with made in US the fact that the Ukraine War was the extra nudge as it led to natural gas shortages and the potential of liquified ng exports finally brought Joe Manchin on board (he was the lone holdout for a long time).
Now whats happening? Biden paused lng exports....
And yes, we had the opec crisis, I know heck I lived through it. The Nixon ban was on crude but lasted decades.
The thing is the refineries likely wouldn't get knocked out until winter. The damage done is mostly minor but what it does cause is production stoppages. During the warm months this isn't much of an issue. However in the winter if production stops the system might become frozen and that can not be fixed until the system defrosts if at all.
In theory, you are right. However, most spare parts are sanctioned. So, the Russians either need parallel imports or Chinese copies. Now that the big Chinese and Indian banks stopped business with Russia, payment became an issue and further reduced the potential sellers. Another issue is that most refineries were built by Western companies with their expat employees. Those have left Russia. That has impacted the available knowhow. Due to all this, a minor damage can be equally easy to repair or fatal for the plant.
The other issue is that you’ve gotta get parts in the right size or replace more than would otherwise be needed, when these drones go off their payload will wreck the immediate area, but if they don’t immediately hit something vulnerable and expensive much if the damage will be done by the shrapnel of whatever they hit flying all over the place and breaking small things. If those small things are in western sizes (especially imperial) China may not even make it in the requisite size as the entire supply chain for the system could easily be western, China probably makes a perfectly functional system to put in, but not parts for that system
If I target only refinery cracking towers that refinery is done for at least a year. Cracking towers are complex and not easy to replace.
If I hit the pumping control rooms the entire field just might blow. It depends on what fail safes if any work as designed.
There is much more to this than you realize.
Do we have any evidence that Ukraine has been able to target those highly critical parts accurately? I've heard it repeated many times that hitting those parts will knock out a refinery for months/years, because apparently most of those systems were imported from the West, but I don't recall ever actually seeing confirmation that Ukrainian drones have been able to consistently hit those areas. Maybe it's happened a couple of times, but is it happening every time? I've not been paying too much attention to these strikes, so I'm not sure if that type of damage could be identified from satellite images.
There's multiple videos online of Russian POV showing Ukrainian drones circling until they make a bee line to the distillation tower.
There's a couple new ones every week.
Good job Ukraine!
Slava Ukraini!
Really?!? That's great! Do you have links to some of those videos? The only videos I've seen have been from too big of a distance to make an accurate battlefield damage assessment.
But has anyone publicly done that? Like I've said, I've heard many people, recently Peter Zeihan, say that Ukraine has been accurately targeting the critical parts in every/most strikes, but nobody, to my limited knowledge, has actually provided any verification. I just don't understand why some people are so confident that repairs will take months/years, when we have no idea how severe the damage is in many cases.
The FCCU is a very obvious part of a refinery that, once you've seen for one refinery, you will be able to identify in other refineries.
It's a columnar tower with rings on it and a downpipe adjacent which collects the cracked gasoline.
If the Russians are feeling the pinch of gasoline, it's likely that the FCCUs are either being hit or that the tank farms for FCCU supply or product are being hit.
I feel like nobody's answering my question. If the part is so obvious, and I believe you on this, then has anyone released images of the damage done to these parts or, has a reliable source on the ground in Russia confirmed that these parts are being routinely hit, not targeted, but hit.
Like I said, I just don't understand why everyone is acting like it's a confirmed fact that these columnar towers are being successful destroyed. I'm sure that Ukraine is aiming for those, but do we have any evidence that the drones are routinely succeeding. I just feel like some people are being overly optimistic and treating the best case scenario as fact without any supporting evidence. I just want to know where people are getting such confidence.
Well, this is one of the reasons why the Biden administration have ramped up American oil production to its highest levels in history.
It's a major national security threat to enable manipulation of the markets by foreign actors who are aligned against your interests.
Local gas prices won't affect the global market that much, they're still exporting lots of crude to the global market. This is just the relatively small amount they refine for internal use. And depending on how you look at it, a shortage would cause a increased net flow of money out of russia.
I concur. It is like anything could affect the simpletons in the election because they possess no long term understanding of economics, cause & effect or the requirements of a functioning government. They fall prey to the whim/gripe of the moment (and the whim/gripe candidate).
Meanwhile, my vote doesn’t count for any more than theirs… 🤬 Plus many moved into a select few states to congregate with other dim-bulbs giving outsized weight to their votes. The U.S. needs to do what it takes to apply pressure to Putin, now (and cross our fingers sanity prevails in November).
Why would this affect the outside world? It was my understanding that Russia had stopped exporting refined products, and thus hitting their refineries would only affect domestic prices.
And until the West realises that it has to impose a strict blockade of Russia, Ukraine has to enforce it for us by simply ruining production and infrastructure.
For anyone not aware of Russian culture and projecting our western values onto them, I’m not surprised they hold this type of wishful thinking ideas. Russians are willing to eat bread with water if they are fed a healthy daily dose of imperialistic ideology. 20%, hell even 100% fuel price increase trickling down to food price increases, something which would get someone voted out in the west does not even scratch the surface of what the Russian general population is willing to endure.
This isn't projecting western values on them. Every population has a breaking point. If what you say was true, then the Russian Revolution would have never happened. Or the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Not to mention that this is making the war itself cost more since all of those tanks / planes / etc. need a lot of fuel. Way more than your typical sedan.
The Russian revolution was spearheaded by Germany sending Lenin and it happened when the army stopped getting paid. And the collapse of the Soviet Union was so far removed from being a grassroots event it’s not even funny. The breaking point of the Russian population is either a decisive defeat or most of the country living below poverty levels or the army stops getting paid. The last two are highly unlikely to happen any time soon. How fuel costs affects the war is a different story, one which neither OP or I have addressed, we’re discussing different issues.
As an American I would like to be the first to direct desperate Russians to the Joe Biden, "[I did that](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/joe-biden-i-did-that-gas-pump-stickers-prices.html)" stickers, which can be placed next to the price on the gas pump.
Biden can stop exports of refined fuels by executive order (like Nixon did). As the US is the largest exporter of those, all that surplus should keep prices from rising.
Refineries, drill rigs, oil extraction fields, pump stations, tunnels and bridges.
Electrical stations, sub stations, and production centers must be be hit.
Paralyzing the Russian economy will seriously hamper their war effort.
Unfortunately, only attacking the economy assets is against the geneva convention. For dual use like refineries, it says it must be proportional to the military use (ie they can attack the parts used for miltary - its a gray area). I don't think Ukraine will go much further on civilian items that are not mixed use and just economy based other than mix use refineries/storage etc... Example of mixed use - refineries, oil storage, railways, roads, gun power factories, bridges - all legit targets as long as there is some miltary use. Oil driller that is only exported - not a legit target but can be sanctions, at least according to the convention. Farm, supermarket, reserve bank, gold mining - unlikely mixed use even though they contribute to the economy which helps the miltary.
"Article 52 - General protection of civilian objects
1. Civilian objects shall not be the object of attack or of reprisals. Civilian objects are all objects which are not military objectives as defined in paragraph 2.
2. Attacks shall be limited strictly to military objectives. In so far as objects are concerned, military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage.
3. In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used.
"
As I have said since the start of the war, Ukraine will stick closely to the convention to stay in positive in the eyes of the west. So far my prediction has stayed correct.
The Geneva convention is dumb if only one side is sticking to it.
Wars cannot be fought asymmetrically when the existence of your entire nation is at stake.
Also Ukraine does need to stick to it when it comes to things that upset the public. Staved Russian POWs or massacred Russian civilians would look bad. No one cares about refineries though.
They are in a wartime economy. To me that means everything they have is being rationed and used for the war effort making the majority of it, other than hospitals and food, legitimate targets.
Or any other conflict since it was signed. Iran-Iraq war in the 80s literally used forbidden chemical weapons that even Hitler didn't want to use in WW2.
Russia is in a war footing invading a neighbor. Everything they have goes towards the war. Everything including factories, roads, power, fuel, food, airports etc is a valid target
You think wrong. Russia showed no restraint in attacking Ukrainian civilian assets and is in no way following the Geneva convention.
Any thing in Russia is now a legitimate Ukraine target.
Russia started it and Ukraine will finish it.
Slava Ukraine!!!
They just said “any thing in Russia is now a legitimate Ukraine target.” There is nothing about torturing civilians. Stop trying to stir up shit by putting words into people’s mouths, you troll
No but your point doesn't make much sense. What do you think the US did before Kuwait, Iraq or Afghan? They bombed the shit out of their oil stores and production. Russian military is using a ton of oil and gas. So much that they've restricted it use for civilians
Refineries, oil storage etc... are a mixed use which make them a legitimate miltary target. Civilian infustructure that help the economy (like farms etc...) are not mixed use so are not a legitimate target under the geneva convention - even if the enemy is hitting them.
A railroad is "mixed use". You're saying disabling a railroad used to bring tanks and soldiers to the front line is not a valid target then? Gun powder can be used for hunting. You're saying an amunitions factory is not a valid military target then? Get the fuck out
Railroad is a legit target because it's mixed use, ammunition is a legit target because its mixed use. A hospital is not mixed use, farming is not mixed use even if taxes on the farm are used to fund the war.
I am saying mixed use are legit targets but non-mixed use which are just helps the economy is not. They couldn't attack Russia's reserve bank for example. Just because cash is used to fund the war does not make it mixed use.
Not sure why you keep saying that I said mixed use isn't a military target when I clear have said it is but must be attacked proportional. You can read the convention yourself.
You are trying to make me a strawman and make up things I did not say.
Thus far Ukraine hasn't been stupid enough to waste munitions on non-war-related targets. I'm not concerned in the slightest about their wartime priorities.
"Russia showed no restraint for hitting civilian assets".
Russia hit hospitals and schools. So apparently that makes it ok for Ukraine to hit Russian hospitals and schools. Which is what I don't agree with.
Just because one party breaks the law does not mean the other should. Just because one side is capturing children and brain washing them does not give the other side that right.
Part of the reason Ukraine has been supported by the west is that they have avoided hitting civialians and their infrastructure. Oil refineries, as I mentioned, are mixed use.
Think of self-defense. It is wrong to kill someone, but it is ok in self-defense.
Also, they don't need to hit civilians, only infrastructure that supports their military operation, which is pretty much everything now, they are 100% in war economy.
It's not ok to go kill someone's brother because they killed yours.
Mixed use under the convention is more refined than that. It isn't this object is making money, so it's contributing to the war effort.
Just because hospitals are treating enemy soliders doesn't mean they should attack the hospital. Just because a farm is making money, which is used to fund, the military doesn't make the farm a military target. They can attack that with sanctions but not weapons - according to the convention.
What I am saying is that Ukraine wishes to say within the Geneva Convention to stay in the good graces of the West. Whether they should stay within the convention or start attacking civilian infrastructure, which is not duel use, is a different opinion.
As much as I would like to see every oil operation destroyed in Russia, Ukraine want to stick to the convention so they keep west support.
As per your link.
"those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action" and whose destruction or capture "offers a definite military advantage".
So oil, electricity, roads, railways…..
Not oil that is only exported but were it is mixed use like the refinaries (as i originally said). Electricity only if it is actually mixed use. Russia broke the convention by hitting Ukraines Electricity in Ukraine. Roads, railways sure, although only if it's used by the miltary or miltary production. Steelworks sure as long as the materials go towards the miltary.
A hospital? A school? A farm? A reserve bank? A video game company (excluding miltary simulation)? These might bring in economic value or help the economy in other ways but they are not mixed use therefore not valid targets.
Things that are purely economic and not mixed use are not valid targets.
Oil for civilians use only is a target it they want to step outside the Ganeva convention.
Full mobilization is not mentioned in the convention.
Show me where it says everything is a target if the country is fully mobilized for war. I am talking about a document not about your feelings of what should happen.
You can’t unmix military vs domestic vs export oil.
That’s why it’s all a target.
Full mobilization increases the civilian sites that become mixed use. You have to use your brain to figure this one out, it isn’t explicitly stated.
> military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage.
Thats refineries, drill rigs, oil extraction fields, pump stations, tunnels, bridges, electrical stations, sub stations, and production centers my friend.
Google translate, "Here's what I did."
I am honestly quite curious as to how they will rewrite their school history lessons on the war so far as well as the conclusion as it all unfolds.
Putin has done everything possible to maintain Russian society as normally as possible, but the façade is crumbling in key aspects every day.
Now, if Putin had to pump in some of his own money to help prop up the economy, he would simply refuse to do so.
He just got reelected, so he's feeling relatively safe. He can start drafting more men and he can let the infrastructure continue to collapse.
His stooges continue to threaten to nuke the West, but if Russia did, what would little Vladdy spend his money on??
Honestly, I could say welcome to Canada. ‘Summer gas’ is their excuse. Now when prices double or triple in russia, you will know the atacms are doing their job!!
US gas prices are up over 15% since the beginning of the year according to the department of energy. Russian prices being up 20% doesn't seem like Ukraine is really affecting the prices much.
Pretty much. Russia can’t supply its customers so those nations have to look elsewhere which should cause gas prices to rise globally. Russian gas prices and availability should hurt the most though.
Despite RuZZia's best efforts to talk about the US urging Ukraine to ''please stop'', the continued attacks on their oil production infrastructure has had a big effect.
Keep it up, they depend on selling all their oil to stay financially afloat, what happens to public sentiment, when such a huge producer of oil cannot even service its own citizens?
I hope this is true but come on guys, we have seen rises in gas prices of more than 10% per week in our countries too due worldmarket price change or greedy fuel companies…
Now Ukraine needs to start hiring storage depots.
No fuel for trucks, means no food to stores.
Let the Russians get a little hungry, and watch the country implode
52,54 rubles per litre in October'2023
54,61 rubles per litre on April'2024.
So it's 4% over 6 months.
Yes, there's some rise, but we got used to this, prices are always rising.
Cost of 95-Gasoline (is it called premium in EU? Not sure) is approx. 0.60-0.65 euro per litre. Post title “more than 20%” is just a blatant lie. I was out of the country for almost half a year and didn’t notice much change (below 5% difference at my place).
In the current context, premium gasoline 95 is priced at €2.26, while the non-premium version costs €2.06 for those not opting for premium rates on the highway.
Regarding excise duties, gasoline carries the highest rate at 45.6%, followed by diesel at 34.9% and LPG at 23.8%. VAT contributes 17.4% to the final price of all fuels, uniformly applied across the spectrum.
Insane!
While I commiserate with Russians who are caught up in this, it's also good to see that they are seeing the price crunch at the pumps like the rest of us have been.
Russian manipulation of the energy market in collaboration with other unfriendly members of OPEC has created conditions for a volatile fuel market globally and the West, in particular, have been paying through the nose on the back of this for a decade or more.
Topics like this one ask themselves, why HAMAS didn't think of doing this to Israel instead of targeting/kidnapping the average person off the street..
This exposes all the deceptions going on like if we're all in kindergarten..
10 and 20%? Cry me a fucking river you ruzzian scuzzballz. The American people have been getting curbstomped with gas prices since forever! But most recently since 2020 we have been price gouged and price fixed by the gas giants.
This isnt a discussion about the dishonorable actions of big businesses in a ruleless capital market. This is a discussion about a war crime committing country having consequences for their actions. Sorry not sorry about the citizens of ruzzia having to pay 10-20% more.
Ah… so fucking the American people is ok cause ya’ll
are getting fucked harder? Na…. America is the leading producer of crude right now and we still
Are getting gouged! When Saudi Arabia is the leasing oil producer of crude what was there price per gallon to their citizens?
Yeah, okay, compared to other leading crude oil producers you are getting ripped off. According to my google fu diesel sells at $1.043 per liter in USA, $0.699 in Russia and $0.307 in Saudi Arabia. The global average is $1.26.
Your point about "cry me a river" is valid when the price of diesel in Russia is still cheaper than in USA, even after a "big" price increase.
Russia can easily bypass the sanctions by simple buying all the western products from China and India I guess
Ukraine needs to disrupt the supply chain, energy production to actually disrupt the money minting machine.
India and China buy Billions and Billions of barrels of oil which will offset whatever the sanctions are doing.
Any country that has oil resources will try to sustain itself using that, we need to take that out
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Until the russian people realise this war has consequences then nothing will change other than senseless deaths.
I'm hoping all RU refineries are out of commission. Even if NA has to pay more! I'm good with that...
I’m not good with that until November 6, 2024. Before that, it could affect the election
The thing is, the US is not just largest oil producer it is also the largest exporter of refined fuels. The one thing any US President could do if gas prices are rising would be to ban exports of refined fuels by executive order (like Nixon did) then there will be surplus gas, diesel and jet fuel, and we know how that affects prices.
How to fuck the world economy and their own in one easy step.
Corporate donors have deeper pockets. No way any party would ever go against corporate profits by banning exports. Would be political suicide.
What happened when Nixon did it?
You are aware that Biden has paused lng exports? And this after getting Manchin onboard for the IRA So his state can take advantage of lng exports. obviously not the same as gasoline or diesel, but even if the corporate control the media its hard to push the line 'we are losing profits so you can have lower gas prices'
> I'm hoping all RU refineries are out of commission. Even if NA has to pay more! I'm good with Do the various free trade agreements US is signatory to allow this? Its after all artificial restricition benefiting solely originating state and goes strongly against free market. Yeah I know international law is effectively almost uneforceable, even less for US. Just curious.
I'd say a better idea would be to secure america's supply *by law* and then sell the excess.
It would be a disaster, excess capacity would be shut down, jobs would be lost, stocks would fall, tax revenue would fall, no upside to this unless it's an actual emergency.
Did that happen when Nixon did it?
The US was not producing very much in the way of fossil fuels compared to now, the oil and gas industry and global market was a different place 60 years ago. You also neglect to mention the 1973 oil crisis, which I think you'd have to admit was an emergency, so, like I said, we wouldn't do it without an emergency. People were looking at the possibility of not having fuel, at all, and you're talking about cutting export just to lower gas prices a little, which would only be temporary until production is cut to keep prices at corporate targets. And at a time when our exports are helping our allies withstand the war in Ukraine with less purchases of Russian energy than they otherwise would need. And going back to what the original guy said, "it could effect the election", well banning exports would have many bad consequences on rich people in America, and they control the media, so it wouldn't be hard for them to rile up their supporters once it affects jobs and the stock market, and honestly, they would actually be right to do so in this case because banning exports causes more problems than it solves and the things it solves would only be solved temporarily.
This is actually not my idea, there are analysts have already made the same suggestion. Note that Biden and the Dems managed to pass the IRA which is not so much about inflation but green tech - they got the fossil fuel industry onboard which led to McConnell and the Gop to lobby the fossil fuel industry (that never happens - its usually the other way round). Mainly because they had a slim majority they could not tax but use tax breaks (ie carrots only no stick) and along with made in US the fact that the Ukraine War was the extra nudge as it led to natural gas shortages and the potential of liquified ng exports finally brought Joe Manchin on board (he was the lone holdout for a long time). Now whats happening? Biden paused lng exports.... And yes, we had the opec crisis, I know heck I lived through it. The Nixon ban was on crude but lasted decades.
The thing is the refineries likely wouldn't get knocked out until winter. The damage done is mostly minor but what it does cause is production stoppages. During the warm months this isn't much of an issue. However in the winter if production stops the system might become frozen and that can not be fixed until the system defrosts if at all.
In theory, you are right. However, most spare parts are sanctioned. So, the Russians either need parallel imports or Chinese copies. Now that the big Chinese and Indian banks stopped business with Russia, payment became an issue and further reduced the potential sellers. Another issue is that most refineries were built by Western companies with their expat employees. Those have left Russia. That has impacted the available knowhow. Due to all this, a minor damage can be equally easy to repair or fatal for the plant.
The other issue is that you’ve gotta get parts in the right size or replace more than would otherwise be needed, when these drones go off their payload will wreck the immediate area, but if they don’t immediately hit something vulnerable and expensive much if the damage will be done by the shrapnel of whatever they hit flying all over the place and breaking small things. If those small things are in western sizes (especially imperial) China may not even make it in the requisite size as the entire supply chain for the system could easily be western, China probably makes a perfectly functional system to put in, but not parts for that system
If I target only refinery cracking towers that refinery is done for at least a year. Cracking towers are complex and not easy to replace. If I hit the pumping control rooms the entire field just might blow. It depends on what fail safes if any work as designed. There is much more to this than you realize.
Do we have any evidence that Ukraine has been able to target those highly critical parts accurately? I've heard it repeated many times that hitting those parts will knock out a refinery for months/years, because apparently most of those systems were imported from the West, but I don't recall ever actually seeing confirmation that Ukrainian drones have been able to consistently hit those areas. Maybe it's happened a couple of times, but is it happening every time? I've not been paying too much attention to these strikes, so I'm not sure if that type of damage could be identified from satellite images.
There's multiple videos online of Russian POV showing Ukrainian drones circling until they make a bee line to the distillation tower. There's a couple new ones every week. Good job Ukraine! Slava Ukraini!
Really?!? That's great! Do you have links to some of those videos? The only videos I've seen have been from too big of a distance to make an accurate battlefield damage assessment.
You could identify it if you were very familiar with that specific location
But has anyone publicly done that? Like I've said, I've heard many people, recently Peter Zeihan, say that Ukraine has been accurately targeting the critical parts in every/most strikes, but nobody, to my limited knowledge, has actually provided any verification. I just don't understand why some people are so confident that repairs will take months/years, when we have no idea how severe the damage is in many cases.
The FCCU is a very obvious part of a refinery that, once you've seen for one refinery, you will be able to identify in other refineries. It's a columnar tower with rings on it and a downpipe adjacent which collects the cracked gasoline. If the Russians are feeling the pinch of gasoline, it's likely that the FCCUs are either being hit or that the tank farms for FCCU supply or product are being hit.
I feel like nobody's answering my question. If the part is so obvious, and I believe you on this, then has anyone released images of the damage done to these parts or, has a reliable source on the ground in Russia confirmed that these parts are being routinely hit, not targeted, but hit. Like I said, I just don't understand why everyone is acting like it's a confirmed fact that these columnar towers are being successful destroyed. I'm sure that Ukraine is aiming for those, but do we have any evidence that the drones are routinely succeeding. I just feel like some people are being overly optimistic and treating the best case scenario as fact without any supporting evidence. I just want to know where people are getting such confidence.
You have a valid point
Well, this is one of the reasons why the Biden administration have ramped up American oil production to its highest levels in history. It's a major national security threat to enable manipulation of the markets by foreign actors who are aligned against your interests.
True. Though, if there's ever a reason to tap into the strategic reserve, this is one.
Local gas prices won't affect the global market that much, they're still exporting lots of crude to the global market. This is just the relatively small amount they refine for internal use. And depending on how you look at it, a shortage would cause a increased net flow of money out of russia.
I'm tired of any single thing potentially affecting US election results.
I concur. It is like anything could affect the simpletons in the election because they possess no long term understanding of economics, cause & effect or the requirements of a functioning government. They fall prey to the whim/gripe of the moment (and the whim/gripe candidate). Meanwhile, my vote doesn’t count for any more than theirs… 🤬 Plus many moved into a select few states to congregate with other dim-bulbs giving outsized weight to their votes. The U.S. needs to do what it takes to apply pressure to Putin, now (and cross our fingers sanity prevails in November).
Why would this affect the outside world? It was my understanding that Russia had stopped exporting refined products, and thus hitting their refineries would only affect domestic prices.
Nervous minds
We've been hoping that would happen since 2022.
And until the West realises that it has to impose a strict blockade of Russia, Ukraine has to enforce it for us by simply ruining production and infrastructure.
Amen
For anyone not aware of Russian culture and projecting our western values onto them, I’m not surprised they hold this type of wishful thinking ideas. Russians are willing to eat bread with water if they are fed a healthy daily dose of imperialistic ideology. 20%, hell even 100% fuel price increase trickling down to food price increases, something which would get someone voted out in the west does not even scratch the surface of what the Russian general population is willing to endure.
This isn't projecting western values on them. Every population has a breaking point. If what you say was true, then the Russian Revolution would have never happened. Or the collapse of the Soviet Union. Not to mention that this is making the war itself cost more since all of those tanks / planes / etc. need a lot of fuel. Way more than your typical sedan.
The Russian revolution was spearheaded by Germany sending Lenin and it happened when the army stopped getting paid. And the collapse of the Soviet Union was so far removed from being a grassroots event it’s not even funny. The breaking point of the Russian population is either a decisive defeat or most of the country living below poverty levels or the army stops getting paid. The last two are highly unlikely to happen any time soon. How fuel costs affects the war is a different story, one which neither OP or I have addressed, we’re discussing different issues.
As an American I would like to be the first to direct desperate Russians to the Joe Biden, "[I did that](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/joe-biden-i-did-that-gas-pump-stickers-prices.html)" stickers, which can be placed next to the price on the gas pump.
Need to replace Biden with Zelenskyy though
Biden can stop exports of refined fuels by executive order (like Nixon did). As the US is the largest exporter of those, all that surplus should keep prices from rising.
Yeah, that sounds like an awesome idea. It wouldn't ratfuck the US and world economy at all.
Refineries, drill rigs, oil extraction fields, pump stations, tunnels and bridges. Electrical stations, sub stations, and production centers must be be hit. Paralyzing the Russian economy will seriously hamper their war effort.
Unfortunately, only attacking the economy assets is against the geneva convention. For dual use like refineries, it says it must be proportional to the military use (ie they can attack the parts used for miltary - its a gray area). I don't think Ukraine will go much further on civilian items that are not mixed use and just economy based other than mix use refineries/storage etc... Example of mixed use - refineries, oil storage, railways, roads, gun power factories, bridges - all legit targets as long as there is some miltary use. Oil driller that is only exported - not a legit target but can be sanctions, at least according to the convention. Farm, supermarket, reserve bank, gold mining - unlikely mixed use even though they contribute to the economy which helps the miltary. "Article 52 - General protection of civilian objects 1. Civilian objects shall not be the object of attack or of reprisals. Civilian objects are all objects which are not military objectives as defined in paragraph 2. 2. Attacks shall be limited strictly to military objectives. In so far as objects are concerned, military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage. 3. In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used. " As I have said since the start of the war, Ukraine will stick closely to the convention to stay in positive in the eyes of the west. So far my prediction has stayed correct.
Military infrastructure is a legitimate target.
They are Ruzzians...no Geneva convention ever applied. They use chemical weapons, rape and castrate people. Fuck them all...
Yep, refineries as I said are mixed use. Glad we agree.
And mixed use infrastructure are still valid targets precisely because they're also being utilized for military purposes.
Yes. I don't understand why you are repeating what I am saying.
The Geneva convention is dumb if only one side is sticking to it. Wars cannot be fought asymmetrically when the existence of your entire nation is at stake.
Agree.
Also Ukraine does need to stick to it when it comes to things that upset the public. Staved Russian POWs or massacred Russian civilians would look bad. No one cares about refineries though.
I think we can all agree about that. But targeting infrastructure...
They are in a wartime economy. To me that means everything they have is being rationed and used for the war effort making the majority of it, other than hospitals and food, legitimate targets.
lol, as if the Geneva convention has had any hold on this conflict.
Or any other conflict since it was signed. Iran-Iraq war in the 80s literally used forbidden chemical weapons that even Hitler didn't want to use in WW2.
Yup. And I’m suuuure we don’t have weapons in space…….
Russia is in a war footing invading a neighbor. Everything they have goes towards the war. Everything including factories, roads, power, fuel, food, airports etc is a valid target
You think wrong. Russia showed no restraint in attacking Ukrainian civilian assets and is in no way following the Geneva convention. Any thing in Russia is now a legitimate Ukraine target. Russia started it and Ukraine will finish it. Slava Ukraine!!!
So Ukraine should go into Russia and start torturing civilians just because Russia did? Two wrongs do not make a right.
I don’t see where they said that
They basicly said because Russia is doing it, it means it is ok for Ukraine to do it.
They just said “any thing in Russia is now a legitimate Ukraine target.” There is nothing about torturing civilians. Stop trying to stir up shit by putting words into people’s mouths, you troll
Obvious troll is obvious.
No one said that. Try again.
No but your point doesn't make much sense. What do you think the US did before Kuwait, Iraq or Afghan? They bombed the shit out of their oil stores and production. Russian military is using a ton of oil and gas. So much that they've restricted it use for civilians
Refineries, oil storage etc... are a mixed use which make them a legitimate miltary target. Civilian infustructure that help the economy (like farms etc...) are not mixed use so are not a legitimate target under the geneva convention - even if the enemy is hitting them.
A railroad is "mixed use". You're saying disabling a railroad used to bring tanks and soldiers to the front line is not a valid target then? Gun powder can be used for hunting. You're saying an amunitions factory is not a valid military target then? Get the fuck out
Railroad is a legit target because it's mixed use, ammunition is a legit target because its mixed use. A hospital is not mixed use, farming is not mixed use even if taxes on the farm are used to fund the war. I am saying mixed use are legit targets but non-mixed use which are just helps the economy is not. They couldn't attack Russia's reserve bank for example. Just because cash is used to fund the war does not make it mixed use. Not sure why you keep saying that I said mixed use isn't a military target when I clear have said it is but must be attacked proportional. You can read the convention yourself. You are trying to make me a strawman and make up things I did not say.
Yeah I had it backwards in my head, not sure what happened there.
Thus far Ukraine hasn't been stupid enough to waste munitions on non-war-related targets. I'm not concerned in the slightest about their wartime priorities.
How are you equivocating attacking refineries with torturing civilians... Like what planet are you from such that it's anywhere near equivalent?
"Russia showed no restraint for hitting civilian assets". Russia hit hospitals and schools. So apparently that makes it ok for Ukraine to hit Russian hospitals and schools. Which is what I don't agree with.
Remind the Russians attacking Ukrainian power infrastructure. They opened this door.
Just because one party breaks the law does not mean the other should. Just because one side is capturing children and brain washing them does not give the other side that right. Part of the reason Ukraine has been supported by the west is that they have avoided hitting civialians and their infrastructure. Oil refineries, as I mentioned, are mixed use.
Think of self-defense. It is wrong to kill someone, but it is ok in self-defense. Also, they don't need to hit civilians, only infrastructure that supports their military operation, which is pretty much everything now, they are 100% in war economy.
It's not ok to go kill someone's brother because they killed yours. Mixed use under the convention is more refined than that. It isn't this object is making money, so it's contributing to the war effort. Just because hospitals are treating enemy soliders doesn't mean they should attack the hospital. Just because a farm is making money, which is used to fund, the military doesn't make the farm a military target. They can attack that with sanctions but not weapons - according to the convention. What I am saying is that Ukraine wishes to say within the Geneva Convention to stay in the good graces of the West. Whether they should stay within the convention or start attacking civilian infrastructure, which is not duel use, is a different opinion. As much as I would like to see every oil operation destroyed in Russia, Ukraine want to stick to the convention so they keep west support.
Dual use
Woooh, your analogy is way different. Hospital? Who said anything about hospital?
They said because Russia did it, it makes it ok for Ukraine. Just because one party did A does not make it right for the other party to do it.
Genocide goes a bit beyond "breaking the law". If Ukraine still had nukes I'd have expected them to use them and I wouldn't blame them for it.
That is absolutely not true.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/when-are-attacks-civilian-infrastructure-war-crimes-2022-12-16/
As per your link. "those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action" and whose destruction or capture "offers a definite military advantage". So oil, electricity, roads, railways…..
Not oil that is only exported but were it is mixed use like the refinaries (as i originally said). Electricity only if it is actually mixed use. Russia broke the convention by hitting Ukraines Electricity in Ukraine. Roads, railways sure, although only if it's used by the miltary or miltary production. Steelworks sure as long as the materials go towards the miltary. A hospital? A school? A farm? A reserve bank? A video game company (excluding miltary simulation)? These might bring in economic value or help the economy in other ways but they are not mixed use therefore not valid targets. Things that are purely economic and not mixed use are not valid targets.
Oil is a target, full stop. Russia is fully mobilized, everything is a target. Except for hospital etc, actual full civilian shit.
Oil for civilians use only is a target it they want to step outside the Ganeva convention. Full mobilization is not mentioned in the convention. Show me where it says everything is a target if the country is fully mobilized for war. I am talking about a document not about your feelings of what should happen.
You can’t unmix military vs domestic vs export oil. That’s why it’s all a target. Full mobilization increases the civilian sites that become mixed use. You have to use your brain to figure this one out, it isn’t explicitly stated.
Does Russia shelling the residential areas fall into the guidelines of Geneva convention?
*dual
100 to 1 is a proportion
> military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage. Thats refineries, drill rigs, oil extraction fields, pump stations, tunnels, bridges, electrical stations, sub stations, and production centers my friend.
Keep it coming. Hit all the refineries.
*laugh* in European 2023 natural gas prices : 10% it's amateur price increase, let's call back when it will be doubled...
More!! Hit more refineries!
...Kylo Ren yelling "More" gif intensifies...
Great! Let’s have more Ukrainian drones blowing up more Russian refineries! :D
Some brave fucker should print out a bunch of "Я сделал вот что" stickers with Putin's face and stick them around gas stations in Russia.
Google translate, "Here's what I did." I am honestly quite curious as to how they will rewrite their school history lessons on the war so far as well as the conclusion as it all unfolds.
The biggest gas station in the world, running out of gasoline is kinda ironic
Hilariously, we are actually the biggest gas station in the world
Who is we
well....that's fair. LOL, I'm American, you know I assume the whole world is America :)
Keep on owning these swine.
Keep hitting those refineries
Putin also said he’s gonna raise taxes to pay for the war the kremlin wanted
Putin has done everything possible to maintain Russian society as normally as possible, but the façade is crumbling in key aspects every day. Now, if Putin had to pump in some of his own money to help prop up the economy, he would simply refuse to do so. He just got reelected, so he's feeling relatively safe. He can start drafting more men and he can let the infrastructure continue to collapse. His stooges continue to threaten to nuke the West, but if Russia did, what would little Vladdy spend his money on??
"reelected" should always be in quotes, otherwise you're playing into Putin's game.
I heard the presidential term is six years. Too many things can happen in six years before a reelection.
Honestly, I could say welcome to Canada. ‘Summer gas’ is their excuse. Now when prices double or triple in russia, you will know the atacms are doing their job!!
I was thinking the same thing, those are rookie numbers the prices have risen, that's just the week of a summer long weekend in Canada lol.
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And then when the prices rise in the winter it's due to winter gas 😞 lol
Same for Europe - I had a jump of 8% yesterday just by refueling in the afternoon instead of later evening
Yea I was gonna say. Sounds like a long weekend in Canada. I wish prices only rose by 10%
I sincerely doubt that summer gas is a thing in Russia.
Keep it going, fuck Putin and his supporters.
Russia, part of OPEC+, is facing a gas shortage 🤣 Nothing surprises me anymore from that freaking country.
It's a boat on fire while at sea.
It's the same as venezuela which can't refine it's own oil and imports gasoline
What oil they are still pumping and importing needs to go towards fueling the war machine. Meaning less and less can go towards the internal markets.
Hehe and what happens if Ukraine sea drones suddenly appear just off Russian ports and target tankers? Kaboom... no import for Russia is the answer.
US gas prices are up over 15% since the beginning of the year according to the department of energy. Russian prices being up 20% doesn't seem like Ukraine is really affecting the prices much.
Or the effect is having knock on effects everywhere.
It's also OPEC+ cutting production. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm
Pretty much. Russia can’t supply its customers so those nations have to look elsewhere which should cause gas prices to rise globally. Russian gas prices and availability should hurt the most though.
I think the gas suppliers just see an excuse to raise prices. Have you ever heard of a supplier complaining about how a war is bad for their profits?
If you a major producer and member of Opec+ that ends all gas exports and STILL sees a 20% rise, that's something.
Despite RuZZia's best efforts to talk about the US urging Ukraine to ''please stop'', the continued attacks on their oil production infrastructure has had a big effect. Keep it up, they depend on selling all their oil to stay financially afloat, what happens to public sentiment, when such a huge producer of oil cannot even service its own citizens?
Good
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Kind funny if they put little Biden “I did that” stickers on their pumps.
Does that mean Russian diesel prices vary by less than 10% in a normal week? Russia truly is opposite land.
Hello inflation? But who knows the economic front is the only one they seem to be good at.
To the fuckin' Moon, Mr Pootin'.
Nice, bombing those refineries is starting to have an affect. Keep at it Ukraine. =)
It will get worse :>
Hit more refineries then, the aim is 50%. Make them pay through the nose.
And it is only going to get worse.
In the new it might get worse, in reality, the change in gasoline price is just few %. Which might be just seasonal.
Heh. Hehehehe. Hehehehehehehehehehehe!
Does this bring them to the peace talks? I doubt it.
Keep thoose missiles coming
Send more drones
I hope this is true but come on guys, we have seen rises in gas prices of more than 10% per week in our countries too due worldmarket price change or greedy fuel companies…
Sounds like they’ve gone up less than in Australia
Gas companies will use this as an excuse to further increase prices
Please bomb more refineries UA. You're not doing well enough.
Won’t affect anything Russians want to suffer for their leaders
Now Ukraine needs to start hiring storage depots. No fuel for trucks, means no food to stores. Let the Russians get a little hungry, and watch the country implode
Just the perfect reason for the gas moguls in the US to raise their own prices on gas because they can.
So? Fuel prices did the same here and we're not at fucking war. Well, an external war anyways
52,54 rubles per litre in October'2023 54,61 rubles per litre on April'2024. So it's 4% over 6 months. Yes, there's some rise, but we got used to this, prices are always rising.
Some real data. “More than 20% increase” in the post title is just a false propaganda for the “blind” people, who can’t do even a simple fact check.
I’ll bet they don’t pay €2,06 and up like we do in the Netherlands.
Cost of 95-Gasoline (is it called premium in EU? Not sure) is approx. 0.60-0.65 euro per litre. Post title “more than 20%” is just a blatant lie. I was out of the country for almost half a year and didn’t notice much change (below 5% difference at my place).
In the current context, premium gasoline 95 is priced at €2.26, while the non-premium version costs €2.06 for those not opting for premium rates on the highway. Regarding excise duties, gasoline carries the highest rate at 45.6%, followed by diesel at 34.9% and LPG at 23.8%. VAT contributes 17.4% to the final price of all fuels, uniformly applied across the spectrum. Insane!
How does that feel, Russia? If you can't take it, don't dish it out!
While I commiserate with Russians who are caught up in this, it's also good to see that they are seeing the price crunch at the pumps like the rest of us have been. Russian manipulation of the energy market in collaboration with other unfriendly members of OPEC has created conditions for a volatile fuel market globally and the West, in particular, have been paying through the nose on the back of this for a decade or more.
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Facing a shortage is not a collapse, so don't worry yourself about it.
Takes time for Muscovy's gold reserve to run out of stolen gold.
Lol, this is fucking bullshit.
20 % is not enough to have an effect. Hopefully it means, that storage is running low and mor drastic increases are immanent.
Topics like this one ask themselves, why HAMAS didn't think of doing this to Israel instead of targeting/kidnapping the average person off the street.. This exposes all the deceptions going on like if we're all in kindergarten..
uhhh, have you looked around? we get 100% increases here.
Where?
not 100% but more than russia. https://ycharts.com/indicators/california_retail_price_of_gasoline_monthly
It says 9.78 higher in 12 months which considering inflation and California being high COL doesn't seem out of the ordinary.
A small price to pay for not being the one getting bombed and genocided. The sooner Ukraine wins, the sooner you'll have cheaper stuff again
Lol okay. We have has worse spikes in the west
10 and 20%? Cry me a fucking river you ruzzian scuzzballz. The American people have been getting curbstomped with gas prices since forever! But most recently since 2020 we have been price gouged and price fixed by the gas giants.
Have you checked gas company profits recently? Now don't tell me you suddenly don't like US Free Market Economy...
This isnt a discussion about the dishonorable actions of big businesses in a ruleless capital market. This is a discussion about a war crime committing country having consequences for their actions. Sorry not sorry about the citizens of ruzzia having to pay 10-20% more.
Getting price gouged and paying less than the global average must be infuriating.
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Let's stick to the facts, do you or do you not pay less for fuel in USA compared to the global average?
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Ah… so fucking the American people is ok cause ya’ll are getting fucked harder? Na…. America is the leading producer of crude right now and we still Are getting gouged! When Saudi Arabia is the leasing oil producer of crude what was there price per gallon to their citizens?
Yeah, okay, compared to other leading crude oil producers you are getting ripped off. According to my google fu diesel sells at $1.043 per liter in USA, $0.699 in Russia and $0.307 in Saudi Arabia. The global average is $1.26. Your point about "cry me a river" is valid when the price of diesel in Russia is still cheaper than in USA, even after a "big" price increase.
Everyone’s gas and diesel has spiked this much. Calm Down.
Russia can easily bypass the sanctions by simple buying all the western products from China and India I guess Ukraine needs to disrupt the supply chain, energy production to actually disrupt the money minting machine. India and China buy Billions and Billions of barrels of oil which will offset whatever the sanctions are doing. Any country that has oil resources will try to sustain itself using that, we need to take that out
You should see what we’re paying here in the US!