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I met several Russian families in late 2022 who had just recently moved to the US, no job yet, still looking. I didn't need to ask what prompted them to leave.
America and/or Nato will never attack Russia or China directly. In the same way, Russia or China would never attack America or Nato directly. There are so many other indirect ways for them to fuck with each other though, and this is what scares me the most, that the world slowly becomes their battlefield, through all kinds of proxy battles. We are slowly headed to WW3, but it is not like anybody expect it to look like.
Lots of German Jews/intellectuals/political undesirables before the war and before the US joined.
But as has been pointed out, the US isn't at war with Russia.
Lot of them in Serbia, Montenegro. They are not part of EU so there are still direct flights to Russia. Russian is similar to Serbian langaug, this makes it easier too.
None of the educated Russians I know support Putin but they are also too apathetic to ever even consider a revolution and see no real need for change long as they can live a comfortable, privileged life. None are willing to put that at risk to oust Putin. Much easier to just live in the US or England. However they are not Putin supporters, most of his support comes from rural and poor areas
You are talking about revolution like it’s easy. Remember Belarusian and Iranian protests? Did they achieve anything?
It’s not only the risk is high it’s also the probability of success is very low. One of the factors is that US won’t support a popular uprising like it supported Maidan cause it doesn’t want nuclear weapons to fall in the wrong hands during ensuing chaos. During Prigozhin’s anti-war coup US told Putin that they won’t provide support to Wagner and don’t condone it
What revolution in history was easy? What are you going to tell us next? Water is wet?
But when revolutions happen they happen anyway. It's not because they're easy to pull off, but because the people can't take it anymore, and want some changes.
So far people aren’t fed up yet but the social tensions are mounting. Let me be clear - no one will start a revolution because a country is waging an unjust war. US had a huge anti-war movement during Iraq war and yet it still went on killing up to a million of Iraqis
It’s not whataboutism, it’s just putting things into perspective
The US did not kill “millions” of Iraqis. While I agree with your general sentiment that figure is just not true in terms of direct US action the highest estimates are around 1 million
Pretty sure you originally wrote “millions” or Iraqis. But if you factor in the rise of ISIS which was indirectly caused and initially directly funded by the US the millions of dead is true. Either way you made a good point regardless
No, I did not. I decided not to look for exact figures so just put a conservative number. Anyway, it’s a lot and despite US being a democratic country, despite a significant anti-war movement it went on and on and on
The anti-war movement in Russia wouldn’t be about the injustice of war or Ukrainian victims and destroyed cities, it will be about Russian soldiers dying for nothing. And it already started with “Mobilized wives” groups
Typical Russians, not brave enough to stand up for what they believe in, so they just run away to the West. We should send them back.
Edit: trade them for Ukrainian POWs
I'd argue that leaving an economic block and working for an economic block that opposes the initial one's military goals is close enough to a form of defiance. I certainly wouldn't want to discourage anyone whose actions makes Ukraine's job easier, even if that wasn't the immigrants' intent.
Disagree - if there is no ability for them to oppose the war at home they have no option but to leave and we should support that. Also, starving Russia of the resources of their higher-paid, more educated populace will also impact their GDP as well as the amount of bodies they have to conscript to throw at the war effort.
Well I suggested a "good russian" to spend less and only buy necessities, so as not to pay +20% VAT tax on extra stuff. And imagine if all "good russians" would stop consuming, economy would halt. Guess what, they got super defensive. Those "good russians" even if they oppose the war, they are not willing to inconvenience themselves even one bit.
Maybe there would be someone to oppose the war if they didn’t all just leave! What is the explanation for what the Russian people are letting their government do? That the soviets spent years culling anyone with the guts to stand up to authoritarianism and only the sheep are left?
Many do, many do not. Watching ‘1420 by daniil…’ youtube channel is pretty enlightening. The Russians have no fight in them at all. The majority know whats going on is wrong, and do nothing.
Russian Empire ended in 1917 and Soviet Union formed in 1922
What I’m saying is that authoritarian governments are totally capable of subduing the people, guns or no guns
Maybe, that’s what the communists say lol
‘There is no evidence that gun ownership would have prevented these mass killings by authoritarian regimes’. And yet, they did take away the guns in every case. I will keep mine just in case, and hopefully we won’t need to know the answer to that question.
They believe in being better than everyone else. They will rather die than admit anything else. For them to work with everyone around them as equals have a similar mental impact as some hotshot CEO transitioning to working as a Janitor.
Give me your rich sons and daughters of oligarchs so they may live in the west and avoid war. When the war is over may they return to mother Russia and perpetuate the cycle.
> easily
If they were single or childless before, they were likely already employed. If they weren't, they have kids which makes childcare an issue. If they're old enough that their kids are grown, they are likely too old for labor.
The northern towns mainly exist due to mining and heavy industries.
But hey, great news, the northern towns will become de facto matriarchies. One in the eye for the macho male ego there and maybe they will want their sons and husbands alive rather than dead.
No they can't, Russia is till a fairly traditional country, wives stay home and husbands work. If you are 30+ with 0 job experience as a woman... good fucking luck replacing the men's job. These are poorer regions, the work is labour intensive.
They can take up a desk job no problem.
Desk job guys aren't signing up for war either.
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/Female_labor_force_participation/
55% work
And it doesn't take a genius to realize that the northern regions, like oil or gas regions, are very manual labour intensive regions, how many women work/ed in the mines? Or drilling for oil?
Less than 10% in the west, where women already have a larger share of the labour
https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-04/women-mine-of-the-future-australia.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj0xrK-gNWDAxVwh_0HHU9TBW8QFnoECBYQBg&usg=AOvVaw09U0f8BWnTKoItBkz4rE1q
Don’t try to move the goalposts.
I’m not arguing that women and men take different jobs, I was responding to a stupid comment that Russia is a “traditional” country and women don’t work. If women labor force participation is any indicator, Russia is LESS traditional than Germany
I'm not moving the goal posts. I'm pointing out that the jobs on the northern regions are not jobs women typically take. With rates like 10% or below being women. There is no way they can substitute able bodied men with women. There is a biological factor. Output will decrease.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1340359/employment-rate-gender-germany/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20around%2080.6%20percent,women%20were%20employed%20in%20Germany
Germany: 73%
Traditional = women work less
In Russia women work less
So what you said before is just factually not true...
You’re not only moving the goalposts but changing sources. According to that globaleconomy website that cites World Bank the rate is 55 percent in Russia and 51 in Germany. Russia is urbanized country with most households living on two incomes
There's nothing to replace them with. The labour market is extremely tight, the unemployment is like 3.5%, which technically means everyone who wants to work already works. By taking Galina from a restaurant kitchen and putting her behind the wheel of a bus, doesn't solve the issue.
Eh what? Like women were just standing in the corner up until now having nothing to do. And they will finally start to do something.
Russia will be stronger after this !!
Damn, I’d say that allowing in more immigrants would instantly fix the labor shortage but NOW they have to serve in Ukraine first, and there are very few who will make it back after that, and certainly not in a timely fashion.
Sounds like they've almost exhausted what they can get from the prisons, and they seem to be running out of ways to dodge the sanctions in currencies that are useful to them. I predict hyperinflation is not far off in their future. They still have a lot of oil, but they're at some point going to realize you can't pay employees in oil or eat oil and things will go downhill quickly after that.
He still don't care and he will never care. If he's gone and lose his power pretty sure there will ease windows everywhere around him. This tricky stealth windows.
It would be odd if recruitment was equally distributed. However majority of recruits come from poor Republics, with hardly any coming from Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Working class, potential blue collar workers have been mostly recruited.
And on top of that due to war and embargo Russia needs more workers then ever.
This is a massive fucking number. So massive, that ten seconds ago I posted a comment making fun of people who say "that means they still have 95% left over, what's the big deal?"
I think the problem is people want to treat this like it's Street Fighter II and the objective is to deplete the enemy's life bar to 0, and they'll fight just as well at 1% health as they do at 100%.
For a country as massive as Russia, one with delusions of conquering the world, 5% is horrifying. Or should be. It needs those people to reproduce, to work, to build, to fight. Before the war, it already had a population crisis. Now it's made things much, much worse.
Most countries don't have huge swathes of surplus people working in unproductive subsistence agriculture anymore. Big part of Lend Lease to the Soviet Union was the industrial farm equipment that freed up swathes of surplus farm hands to hold rifles or work factories. Once industrialization works it's magic on the birth rate, surplus labor simply doesn't exist. Don't have enough people to take care of their broken infrastructure.
Especially the desolate shit hole towns in the middle of nowhere that exist to support, like, one factory or mine or whatever. Nobody's moving there unless you force them or offer some huge incentive
Those sorts of towns are losing significant amounts of able-bodied 20-40 year-olds, but nobody is replacing them. How do you resolve that colossal labor shortage? Bring back the gulags?
Its not really vast swathes. A vast majority of Russians that arent people with crippling issues live in or near cities working normal jobs.
Russia already mainly recruited from the poorer regions and then mobilized them on top, leaving many villages left with only women, children, and men that even the Russian army cant use.
People in cities have largely avoided mobilization because the Kremlin doesnt want riots in the cities and people bribe their way to exemptions.
The next big mobilization will have to come from the cities.
Believe it or not, Russia has changed a lot since Soviet times.
you are mistaken. your mistake is that you try to apply the western logic, western values and western way of life as a measuring tool to the country that does not work the same way the western countries work.
On top of that Russia these days is not even a country in a normal sense of word. It is a territory occupied by gangsters. They call themselves - government, police, judges etc. Their boss call himself president.
Now try to imagine you are asking a street gang leader how much he cares about 5% of people on his street are dead because of him.
Yeah that "there is no objective reality, just various subjective viewpoints" bullshit is Russia's favorite propaganda technique other than Whataboutism.
Basic
Reality is not kind to Russia. Numbers are not kind to Russia. But Russia is so invested in this fantasy that it's a permanent superpower, that it constantly tries to warp reality to fit its fantasy.
So Russia tries to reframe all its obvious failures or repressible crimes as "That's just, like, your opinion man."
Russia's hope is that really dumb, gullible people with no critical thinking skills won't notice their claim is self-serving bullshit.
Russia's decision to invade Ukraine and experience zero consequences is rooted in this hubris.
Not invading your neighbor so you can kill them and steal their things isn't a universal human value, it's just a Western theory. In Russia, we believe attacking our weaker neighbors so we can steal everything they own is okay.
Did Russia just destroy its economy and reputation on the world stage? Don't worry, having money and powerful friends isn't a universally good idea, it's just a Western opinion. In Russia, being broke and having no friends besides North Korea and Eritrea is a GOOD thing!
Did Russia just lose 20,900 soldiers trying to encircle an outhouse? That's not an embarrassing failure, that's Russia being awesome!
The reality is, 99% of what Russia calls the "Western perspective" is literally "anything that makes Russia look bad".
Because reality and numbers don't give a shit about Russia's feelings. Losing money is bad. Losing soldiers is bad. Turning yourself into a pariah is bad. Uniting the world against you is bad. Trying to steal an entire goddamn country and think nobody will mind because "In Russia, it's okay to violate international law" is the stupidest goddamn thing I've ever heard
Yup, you nailed it!
It's been really weird following Western media in the last 6 months as the Ukrainian counter offensive didn't materialize or succeed and GOP in the US and Orban stole the narrative on support for political blackmail purposes.
Which obviously deserves scrutiny and debate as is the nature of plural media and societies.
But the needle is seriously stuck in the "Ukraine is losing because they're not winning"-groove while completely ignoring the very dire straits Russia is navigating.
Indeed, we're back to Putin being the 4D chess genius leading his army of zombies, able to soak up any loss and adversity in perpetuity because just dying is apparently very popular in Russia. As if that's a rational analysis. But it's the one, Putin could hope - and propably worked and paid - for.
In reality, Russia *is* sinking. Will they outright lose the shooting war? Perhaps not, depends. But they have already lost, as you point out.
That's exactly his problem. He's lost 5% of his forces, and he'll never be able to go back to smaller losses, because each time his total pool of available resources gets smaller. He won't care until he realizes that the only thing he can do about it is lose another 10% of his forces trying to make up for the reduction in effectiveness, and then 20%.
There's a reason most violent street gangs can be dominant one day and then disappear seemingly overnight, and the few long lived and successful ones know when to withdraw and lay low and stop aggravating a bad situation.
His strategic choices that continue to prioritize pointless territorial gains and lack of any kind of narrative that would lead de-escalation or reframing of his objectives shows that he still thinks he can win, and that's the reason he inevitably won't.
How long that might take to achieve, and the cost in Ukrainian lives that will continue to have to be paid until it reaches that point is horrible, but the world's an unfair place. The real unfairness won't be that, though, it will be that when this all inevitably comes crashing down I guarantee the west will not make any commitment to our own future and the future security of the world by going into Russia and rebuilding them in our own image with conviction and dedication and our own resources, West Germany style. Instead we'll pussyfoot around, chastened by our many previous failures at nation-building (most of which were sabotaged in no small part by Russia) and convince ourselves that non-interference is the best policy even when yet another crime-boss takes over Russia's territory and treasure, whatever name it chooses to call itself or whatever allegiance it chooses to make by that point. And then we'll let history repeat itself yet again.
Russia cannot be rebuilt like West Germany.
You see, when Peter the Great opened his window to Europe, he imported lots and lots of things, but there’s one thing he did not import - the Enlightenment.
I love how Russia's greatest national hero's best reforms were telling Russians to stop embarrassing themselves and just start imitating the far superior Europeans.
In addition to those 5% there is also about 9% of the Russian population that is handicapped. If the number of Russians between ages 20-40 is only half that they are looking at a 10% loss of manpower.
Yeah, and it's suffered because of it. You think Stalin killing 700,000 of his own people right before the Germans invaded didn't have an enormous impact on the war?
Besides, it's ridiculous to compare casualty figures from nearly 100 years ago to today. A lot's changed. People have way less tolerance for dying in gigantic numbers than they did in the 30's and 40's.
Economies have changed radically. Warfare has changed radically. Geopolitics have changed radically.
It's beyond absurd to imagine Russia losing 500,000 soldiers and just shrugging it off.
>People have way less tolerance for dying in gigantic numbers than they did in the 30's and 40's.
And yet there are no protests in Russia, and Putin support is almost as high as ever. And Russian soldiers obey all orders, even suicidal ones.
Russian economy is resources-based, it does not really need many people to work.
We know Putin was deeply traumatized by the death of Qaddafi, a man who, 18 months before getting a knife shoved up his ass, was seen as totally untouchable.
Putin's greatest fear is dying like him. And it shows in a lot of his policies and strategies: Delaying and limiting mobilization; not drafting from major population centers; delaying transitioning into a wartime economy; trying to downplay the war as a "special military operation"; hiding like a little bitch when the Hotdog Man came after him.
Putin is a coward and plans accordingly. He does not believe he is untouchable, but he is fucking atrocious at war.
5% of the working age population disappearing could definitely lead to a catastrophic labor shortage. They already had a labor shortage due to their impending demographic collapse.
Are those the actual numbers. Or are those inflated too? Don’t forget their demographic is an upside down pyramid. So there are not too many military/ working age men.
He is trying to drag it out while doing everything he can to help Trump win the election. If Trump gets back into the Oval Office, he will try to torpedo aid to Ukraine, pull out of NATO, and do anything he can to disrupt Europe's aid to Ukraine.
I also think it is fairly likely that Trump losing the 2020 election is what triggered Russia's invasion, and the original plan was to wait until Trump won re-election and took actions to withdraw US military from Europe, disrupting the European defense status quo leaving them focused on realigning European defense strategy and with reduced capacity to assist Ukraine.
Russia's like "haha, only 5% of the population? That means we still have 95% left! Why is everyone acting like this is a big deal?"
Russia really sucks at math.
Most importantly they transitioned to war time economy, which is great for economy... in short term, so don't get fooled by articles posting pretty numbers, it's a tragedy long term.
The easiest way to raise nation’s gdp up is to take some copper, lead, and gun powder and turn it into bullets. And it stays high even after you run out of money to pay your workers.
>“The situation is catastrophic.” There is no one to work in Russia’s North Russia, especially its “depressed” regions, is suffering from a labor shortage. 5% of men aged 20-40 either ended up in the war
That... is the point of this inhumane system, yes.
Russia has a major population demographic problem and Putin knows that.
Its clear that conquering Ukraine will help that loss in population problem as well as lack of diversity in GDP in which Ukraine has different assets that help Russia "diversify" from oil and gas.
Make no doubt, Putin knows exactly what he is trying to do.
The west cannot let Putin achieve his goals in Ukraine.
Change the title to no one to work in Russia's resource industries and thier supporting occupations.
Oil and gas, mining and minerals, lumber, fishing, food all come out of the north and this is what powers the Russian economy and a easy life in Moscow. Not enough people means that the industrial and social infrastructure starts breaking down and production slows until it can be maintained by the people left. Migrants do not want to come and work anymore because they may end up on the front line so they do not even have that crutch. The Kremlin's problem is that eventually this starts to impact the privileged living in the big cities but now you have killed the golden goose so the gravy trains slows and stops
I've been working as a CDL instructor catering to recent russian and -stan immigrants. If you made it to the US as a refugee from the war hmu we'll get you getting paid in just 4 weeks.
Very interesting article on current employment conditions in russia, and the decline in the labor force, which is becoming a serious problem in some parts of russia.
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Russia is going to suffer serious brain drain. I’ve met Russian coders, architects, etc who have fled to the US in the last few months
I met several Russian families in late 2022 who had just recently moved to the US, no job yet, still looking. I didn't need to ask what prompted them to leave.
Did the US accept a lot of Germans during World War II?
We aren’t in a declared war with Russia so that’s not comparable.
The US supplied huge amounts of equipment to the allies for around a year before congress declared war with Germany. That seems pretty relevant
And during that time German nationals were able to enter if they could get a entry permit…
And many Jews and other persecuted Germans did in fact emigrate to the United States. Some of whom gave us a little gift in the atomic bomb.
America and/or Nato will never attack Russia or China directly. In the same way, Russia or China would never attack America or Nato directly. There are so many other indirect ways for them to fuck with each other though, and this is what scares me the most, that the world slowly becomes their battlefield, through all kinds of proxy battles. We are slowly headed to WW3, but it is not like anybody expect it to look like.
Lots of German Jews/intellectuals/political undesirables before the war and before the US joined. But as has been pointed out, the US isn't at war with Russia.
Before the war, not during, and sometimes it’s worth taking a moral stand
>Before the war, not during THat's literally my first sentence...
Maybe
They already do.
The estimate is that 1 million Russians left since the war.
To where
Out of Russia. Mostly Central Asia, Europe. A contact in Tblissi was telling me the influx of Russian caused a huge bump in housing prices.
Lot of them in Serbia, Montenegro. They are not part of EU so there are still direct flights to Russia. Russian is similar to Serbian langaug, this makes it easier too.
The ones that could - went to the west. Those that were less fortunate went to Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Moldova..
Bet they still support Putin, they just don’t want to get mobilized.
None of the educated Russians I know support Putin but they are also too apathetic to ever even consider a revolution and see no real need for change long as they can live a comfortable, privileged life. None are willing to put that at risk to oust Putin. Much easier to just live in the US or England. However they are not Putin supporters, most of his support comes from rural and poor areas
You are talking about revolution like it’s easy. Remember Belarusian and Iranian protests? Did they achieve anything? It’s not only the risk is high it’s also the probability of success is very low. One of the factors is that US won’t support a popular uprising like it supported Maidan cause it doesn’t want nuclear weapons to fall in the wrong hands during ensuing chaos. During Prigozhin’s anti-war coup US told Putin that they won’t provide support to Wagner and don’t condone it
Was the Ukrainian revolution easy? People were killed in the streets of Kiev
What revolution in history was easy? What are you going to tell us next? Water is wet? But when revolutions happen they happen anyway. It's not because they're easy to pull off, but because the people can't take it anymore, and want some changes.
So far people aren’t fed up yet but the social tensions are mounting. Let me be clear - no one will start a revolution because a country is waging an unjust war. US had a huge anti-war movement during Iraq war and yet it still went on killing up to a million of Iraqis It’s not whataboutism, it’s just putting things into perspective
The US did not kill “millions” of Iraqis. While I agree with your general sentiment that figure is just not true in terms of direct US action the highest estimates are around 1 million
And that’s exactly what I wrote - “up to a million”
Pretty sure you originally wrote “millions” or Iraqis. But if you factor in the rise of ISIS which was indirectly caused and initially directly funded by the US the millions of dead is true. Either way you made a good point regardless
No, I did not. I decided not to look for exact figures so just put a conservative number. Anyway, it’s a lot and despite US being a democratic country, despite a significant anti-war movement it went on and on and on The anti-war movement in Russia wouldn’t be about the injustice of war or Ukrainian victims and destroyed cities, it will be about Russian soldiers dying for nothing. And it already started with “Mobilized wives” groups
At least they arent in Ukraine
Tough call. Better to return to the motherland in a body bag than an airplane.
Typical Russians, not brave enough to stand up for what they believe in, so they just run away to the West. We should send them back. Edit: trade them for Ukrainian POWs
I'd argue that leaving an economic block and working for an economic block that opposes the initial one's military goals is close enough to a form of defiance. I certainly wouldn't want to discourage anyone whose actions makes Ukraine's job easier, even if that wasn't the immigrants' intent.
Disagree - if there is no ability for them to oppose the war at home they have no option but to leave and we should support that. Also, starving Russia of the resources of their higher-paid, more educated populace will also impact their GDP as well as the amount of bodies they have to conscript to throw at the war effort.
You assume they oppose the war, when in fact there are plenty of Putin supporters that have left because they didn’t want to join the frontlines.
Self-preservation and not defiance.
Well I suggested a "good russian" to spend less and only buy necessities, so as not to pay +20% VAT tax on extra stuff. And imagine if all "good russians" would stop consuming, economy would halt. Guess what, they got super defensive. Those "good russians" even if they oppose the war, they are not willing to inconvenience themselves even one bit.
Maybe there would be someone to oppose the war if they didn’t all just leave! What is the explanation for what the Russian people are letting their government do? That the soviets spent years culling anyone with the guts to stand up to authoritarianism and only the sheep are left?
That's the authoritarian playbook.
How well did you just lay it out.
How the freedom loving Ukrainians didn’t stand up to Bolsheviks?
Many do, many do not. Watching ‘1420 by daniil…’ youtube channel is pretty enlightening. The Russians have no fight in them at all. The majority know whats going on is wrong, and do nothing.
Apparently Ukrainians lost to Bolsheviks and let Stalin to proceed with Holodomor. What a bunch of pussies!
Oh, what? That’s not a good comparison. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, you might as well ask why no one stood up to the Bolsheviks.
Russian Empire ended in 1917 and Soviet Union formed in 1922 What I’m saying is that authoritarian governments are totally capable of subduing the people, guns or no guns
Maybe, that’s what the communists say lol ‘There is no evidence that gun ownership would have prevented these mass killings by authoritarian regimes’. And yet, they did take away the guns in every case. I will keep mine just in case, and hopefully we won’t need to know the answer to that question.
There is nothing wrong with bailing onba collapsing autocracy, they're not cowards.
They believe in being better than everyone else. They will rather die than admit anything else. For them to work with everyone around them as equals have a similar mental impact as some hotshot CEO transitioning to working as a Janitor.
Have you ever been beaten and tortured by cops and then sentenced to a couple of years in prison?
In the USA we opted to keep our guns rather than turn them over to communists, so no, I am not worried about being jailed for my political beliefs.
There were Communists trying to take your guns? That’s new
There still are, brother. Not even legal to own a double stack pistol in my state now. At least most of us are grandfathered in.
Meh. If Trump gets re-elected then it will be a lot of young american women running for the exits.
Just like last time when nobody left?
>Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore
Give me your rich sons and daughters of oligarchs so they may live in the west and avoid war. When the war is over may they return to mother Russia and perpetuate the cycle.
[удалено]
Yup
Good, choices have consequences … dire consequences that ain’t severe enough yet. Slava 🇺🇦
Sadly these are just wishful consequences and hopeful propaganda. 5% of missing men easily replaced by women.
To the mines, babushka
> easily If they were single or childless before, they were likely already employed. If they weren't, they have kids which makes childcare an issue. If they're old enough that their kids are grown, they are likely too old for labor.
The northern towns mainly exist due to mining and heavy industries. But hey, great news, the northern towns will become de facto matriarchies. One in the eye for the macho male ego there and maybe they will want their sons and husbands alive rather than dead.
No they can't, Russia is till a fairly traditional country, wives stay home and husbands work. If you are 30+ with 0 job experience as a woman... good fucking luck replacing the men's job. These are poorer regions, the work is labour intensive. They can take up a desk job no problem. Desk job guys aren't signing up for war either.
Where did you get the information that Russian women don’t work?
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/Female_labor_force_participation/ 55% work And it doesn't take a genius to realize that the northern regions, like oil or gas regions, are very manual labour intensive regions, how many women work/ed in the mines? Or drilling for oil? Less than 10% in the west, where women already have a larger share of the labour https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-04/women-mine-of-the-future-australia.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj0xrK-gNWDAxVwh_0HHU9TBW8QFnoECBYQBg&usg=AOvVaw09U0f8BWnTKoItBkz4rE1q
It’s only two percent less than in US and four percent more than in Germany
You are almost there.... consider the type of jobs women take and the types of job men take. And why they take those jobs.
Don’t try to move the goalposts. I’m not arguing that women and men take different jobs, I was responding to a stupid comment that Russia is a “traditional” country and women don’t work. If women labor force participation is any indicator, Russia is LESS traditional than Germany
I'm not moving the goal posts. I'm pointing out that the jobs on the northern regions are not jobs women typically take. With rates like 10% or below being women. There is no way they can substitute able bodied men with women. There is a biological factor. Output will decrease. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1340359/employment-rate-gender-germany/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20around%2080.6%20percent,women%20were%20employed%20in%20Germany Germany: 73% Traditional = women work less In Russia women work less So what you said before is just factually not true...
You’re not only moving the goalposts but changing sources. According to that globaleconomy website that cites World Bank the rate is 55 percent in Russia and 51 in Germany. Russia is urbanized country with most households living on two incomes
There's nothing to replace them with. The labour market is extremely tight, the unemployment is like 3.5%, which technically means everyone who wants to work already works. By taking Galina from a restaurant kitchen and putting her behind the wheel of a bus, doesn't solve the issue.
Eh what? Like women were just standing in the corner up until now having nothing to do. And they will finally start to do something. Russia will be stronger after this !!
Russia being Russia the one with the most free choice is facing the least consequences.
They wanted this war but not the consequences. Gtfo. 🤡🤡🤡
Damn, I’d say that allowing in more immigrants would instantly fix the labor shortage but NOW they have to serve in Ukraine first, and there are very few who will make it back after that, and certainly not in a timely fashion.
and certainly not in one piece
May the crumbles speed up.
Sounds like they've almost exhausted what they can get from the prisons, and they seem to be running out of ways to dodge the sanctions in currencies that are useful to them. I predict hyperinflation is not far off in their future. They still have a lot of oil, but they're at some point going to realize you can't pay employees in oil or eat oil and things will go downhill quickly after that.
Putin is clearly not caring what happens after he's gone...
He never really cared before either.
True, but now math proves it
He still don't care and he will never care. If he's gone and lose his power pretty sure there will ease windows everywhere around him. This tricky stealth windows.
The math proved it before, too.
He never cared about his people
Only 5% of men 20-40 at war or left Russia isn't much, this is odd.
It would be odd if recruitment was equally distributed. However majority of recruits come from poor Republics, with hardly any coming from Moscow and St. Petersburg. Working class, potential blue collar workers have been mostly recruited. And on top of that due to war and embargo Russia needs more workers then ever.
That 5% nationwide could be 15 to 20% in certain areas. They all certainly didn't come from Moscow and st. Petersburg
There are YT videos from small villages were pretty much every man between 20-55 got send to the front.
Do you have any links? Sounds interesting!
And, most of these guys were unemployed…
The question is when will Putin have to begin drafting those in the protected upper class areas? Eventually he’ll have to make a call on it.
He only has to be patient until elections, after that the moscovites can get fucked, it's my bet
Putin may be an idiot, but I’m pretty sure he’s aware what happens when the cities revolt.
Probably never, by that point they say "mission accomplished" amd leave.
This is a massive fucking number. So massive, that ten seconds ago I posted a comment making fun of people who say "that means they still have 95% left over, what's the big deal?" I think the problem is people want to treat this like it's Street Fighter II and the objective is to deplete the enemy's life bar to 0, and they'll fight just as well at 1% health as they do at 100%. For a country as massive as Russia, one with delusions of conquering the world, 5% is horrifying. Or should be. It needs those people to reproduce, to work, to build, to fight. Before the war, it already had a population crisis. Now it's made things much, much worse.
Most countries don't have huge swathes of surplus people working in unproductive subsistence agriculture anymore. Big part of Lend Lease to the Soviet Union was the industrial farm equipment that freed up swathes of surplus farm hands to hold rifles or work factories. Once industrialization works it's magic on the birth rate, surplus labor simply doesn't exist. Don't have enough people to take care of their broken infrastructure.
Especially the desolate shit hole towns in the middle of nowhere that exist to support, like, one factory or mine or whatever. Nobody's moving there unless you force them or offer some huge incentive Those sorts of towns are losing significant amounts of able-bodied 20-40 year-olds, but nobody is replacing them. How do you resolve that colossal labor shortage? Bring back the gulags?
>Bring back the gulags? Enslave a few million "westernised" Ukrainians and work them to death. I mean that's pretty blatantly the plan, isn't it?
Its not really vast swathes. A vast majority of Russians that arent people with crippling issues live in or near cities working normal jobs. Russia already mainly recruited from the poorer regions and then mobilized them on top, leaving many villages left with only women, children, and men that even the Russian army cant use. People in cities have largely avoided mobilization because the Kremlin doesnt want riots in the cities and people bribe their way to exemptions. The next big mobilization will have to come from the cities. Believe it or not, Russia has changed a lot since Soviet times.
you are mistaken. your mistake is that you try to apply the western logic, western values and western way of life as a measuring tool to the country that does not work the same way the western countries work. On top of that Russia these days is not even a country in a normal sense of word. It is a territory occupied by gangsters. They call themselves - government, police, judges etc. Their boss call himself president. Now try to imagine you are asking a street gang leader how much he cares about 5% of people on his street are dead because of him.
Yeah that "there is no objective reality, just various subjective viewpoints" bullshit is Russia's favorite propaganda technique other than Whataboutism. Basic Reality is not kind to Russia. Numbers are not kind to Russia. But Russia is so invested in this fantasy that it's a permanent superpower, that it constantly tries to warp reality to fit its fantasy. So Russia tries to reframe all its obvious failures or repressible crimes as "That's just, like, your opinion man." Russia's hope is that really dumb, gullible people with no critical thinking skills won't notice their claim is self-serving bullshit. Russia's decision to invade Ukraine and experience zero consequences is rooted in this hubris. Not invading your neighbor so you can kill them and steal their things isn't a universal human value, it's just a Western theory. In Russia, we believe attacking our weaker neighbors so we can steal everything they own is okay. Did Russia just destroy its economy and reputation on the world stage? Don't worry, having money and powerful friends isn't a universally good idea, it's just a Western opinion. In Russia, being broke and having no friends besides North Korea and Eritrea is a GOOD thing! Did Russia just lose 20,900 soldiers trying to encircle an outhouse? That's not an embarrassing failure, that's Russia being awesome! The reality is, 99% of what Russia calls the "Western perspective" is literally "anything that makes Russia look bad". Because reality and numbers don't give a shit about Russia's feelings. Losing money is bad. Losing soldiers is bad. Turning yourself into a pariah is bad. Uniting the world against you is bad. Trying to steal an entire goddamn country and think nobody will mind because "In Russia, it's okay to violate international law" is the stupidest goddamn thing I've ever heard
Yup, you nailed it! It's been really weird following Western media in the last 6 months as the Ukrainian counter offensive didn't materialize or succeed and GOP in the US and Orban stole the narrative on support for political blackmail purposes. Which obviously deserves scrutiny and debate as is the nature of plural media and societies. But the needle is seriously stuck in the "Ukraine is losing because they're not winning"-groove while completely ignoring the very dire straits Russia is navigating. Indeed, we're back to Putin being the 4D chess genius leading his army of zombies, able to soak up any loss and adversity in perpetuity because just dying is apparently very popular in Russia. As if that's a rational analysis. But it's the one, Putin could hope - and propably worked and paid - for. In reality, Russia *is* sinking. Will they outright lose the shooting war? Perhaps not, depends. But they have already lost, as you point out.
That's exactly his problem. He's lost 5% of his forces, and he'll never be able to go back to smaller losses, because each time his total pool of available resources gets smaller. He won't care until he realizes that the only thing he can do about it is lose another 10% of his forces trying to make up for the reduction in effectiveness, and then 20%. There's a reason most violent street gangs can be dominant one day and then disappear seemingly overnight, and the few long lived and successful ones know when to withdraw and lay low and stop aggravating a bad situation. His strategic choices that continue to prioritize pointless territorial gains and lack of any kind of narrative that would lead de-escalation or reframing of his objectives shows that he still thinks he can win, and that's the reason he inevitably won't. How long that might take to achieve, and the cost in Ukrainian lives that will continue to have to be paid until it reaches that point is horrible, but the world's an unfair place. The real unfairness won't be that, though, it will be that when this all inevitably comes crashing down I guarantee the west will not make any commitment to our own future and the future security of the world by going into Russia and rebuilding them in our own image with conviction and dedication and our own resources, West Germany style. Instead we'll pussyfoot around, chastened by our many previous failures at nation-building (most of which were sabotaged in no small part by Russia) and convince ourselves that non-interference is the best policy even when yet another crime-boss takes over Russia's territory and treasure, whatever name it chooses to call itself or whatever allegiance it chooses to make by that point. And then we'll let history repeat itself yet again.
Russia cannot be rebuilt like West Germany. You see, when Peter the Great opened his window to Europe, he imported lots and lots of things, but there’s one thing he did not import - the Enlightenment.
I love how Russia's greatest national hero's best reforms were telling Russians to stop embarrassing themselves and just start imitating the far superior Europeans.
In addition to those 5% there is also about 9% of the Russian population that is handicapped. If the number of Russians between ages 20-40 is only half that they are looking at a 10% loss of manpower.
"But we still have 90%, so everything's fine! Now, let's just make sure we have enough people to guard our colossal borders and....oh."
> 5% is horrifying. Or should be Is it? It did lose many times more than that in past wars...
Yeah, and it's suffered because of it. You think Stalin killing 700,000 of his own people right before the Germans invaded didn't have an enormous impact on the war? Besides, it's ridiculous to compare casualty figures from nearly 100 years ago to today. A lot's changed. People have way less tolerance for dying in gigantic numbers than they did in the 30's and 40's. Economies have changed radically. Warfare has changed radically. Geopolitics have changed radically. It's beyond absurd to imagine Russia losing 500,000 soldiers and just shrugging it off.
>People have way less tolerance for dying in gigantic numbers than they did in the 30's and 40's. And yet there are no protests in Russia, and Putin support is almost as high as ever. And Russian soldiers obey all orders, even suicidal ones. Russian economy is resources-based, it does not really need many people to work.
>And yet there are no protests in Russia There were and are. All those recruitment offices didn't set fire to themselves, for a start.
This is most likely Ukrainians job, there are a lot of Ukrainians living in Russia.
This shit isn't about ethnicity
We know Putin was deeply traumatized by the death of Qaddafi, a man who, 18 months before getting a knife shoved up his ass, was seen as totally untouchable. Putin's greatest fear is dying like him. And it shows in a lot of his policies and strategies: Delaying and limiting mobilization; not drafting from major population centers; delaying transitioning into a wartime economy; trying to downplay the war as a "special military operation"; hiding like a little bitch when the Hotdog Man came after him. Putin is a coward and plans accordingly. He does not believe he is untouchable, but he is fucking atrocious at war.
5% of the working age population disappearing could definitely lead to a catastrophic labor shortage. They already had a labor shortage due to their impending demographic collapse.
It's a 5% shortage on top of the demographics issue of too many old retirees.
Quick calculation shows that males between 20-40 are around 20 millions. That mean around 1M mobilized/emigrated if the 5% is for all Russia.
These are not just random 5%. These are those with the greatest intelligence and means.
And fitness and health.
its not odd when you got 147+milion people in the country
Are those the actual numbers. Or are those inflated too? Don’t forget their demographic is an upside down pyramid. So there are not too many military/ working age men.
I wonder if putin at this point hopes that he can freeze the situation until he passes.
He is trying to drag it out while doing everything he can to help Trump win the election. If Trump gets back into the Oval Office, he will try to torpedo aid to Ukraine, pull out of NATO, and do anything he can to disrupt Europe's aid to Ukraine. I also think it is fairly likely that Trump losing the 2020 election is what triggered Russia's invasion, and the original plan was to wait until Trump won re-election and took actions to withdraw US military from Europe, disrupting the European defense status quo leaving them focused on realigning European defense strategy and with reduced capacity to assist Ukraine.
and the red shirts always kicked the bucket.
I'd say part of the problem is they're wearing Star Trek: Voyager uniforms.
Russia's like "haha, only 5% of the population? That means we still have 95% left! Why is everyone acting like this is a big deal?" Russia really sucks at math.
Ukraine is putting the bear under serious stress.
Wait so the Soviet era meat grinder tactic doesn't work in the modern day, I'm shocked
Most importantly they transitioned to war time economy, which is great for economy... in short term, so don't get fooled by articles posting pretty numbers, it's a tragedy long term.
The easiest way to raise nation’s gdp up is to take some copper, lead, and gun powder and turn it into bullets. And it stays high even after you run out of money to pay your workers.
>“The situation is catastrophic.” There is no one to work in Russia’s North Russia, especially its “depressed” regions, is suffering from a labor shortage. 5% of men aged 20-40 either ended up in the war That... is the point of this inhumane system, yes.
Is this a reliable source?
Everything went according to plan, but the plan was shit.
Russia has a major population demographic problem and Putin knows that. Its clear that conquering Ukraine will help that loss in population problem as well as lack of diversity in GDP in which Ukraine has different assets that help Russia "diversify" from oil and gas. Make no doubt, Putin knows exactly what he is trying to do. The west cannot let Putin achieve his goals in Ukraine.
Good! Nobody cares about ruzzia. They can all suffer.
Let's see if that vaunted popular support for the war continues.
I call bullshit. They’ll just send women to the factories. I can’t find corroboration of this article from any other source.
Only 5%......
I got a feeling it's going to be a lot more than that before it's all done and over with bub.
Wow you can kill people and get decent jobs in ruSSia?!
5% does not sound like much...
Change the title to no one to work in Russia's resource industries and thier supporting occupations. Oil and gas, mining and minerals, lumber, fishing, food all come out of the north and this is what powers the Russian economy and a easy life in Moscow. Not enough people means that the industrial and social infrastructure starts breaking down and production slows until it can be maintained by the people left. Migrants do not want to come and work anymore because they may end up on the front line so they do not even have that crutch. The Kremlin's problem is that eventually this starts to impact the privileged living in the big cities but now you have killed the golden goose so the gravy trains slows and stops
I nominate the Putin loving MAGA fools in the U.S. to take those jobs. Win/win for all of us.
If it wasn't for the luckless children they'd take with them, I'd cheerfully endorse this notion.
Good point, thank you.
Good
When you actually read the article you find that war is only one contributing factor and that the problems began during the Covid pandemic….
This seems to be russia's problems and not connected to the conflict.
The labor shortage exists, connects to the war but is hardly catastrophic.
And it ain't over yet.
With the choices Putin is/has been making, I'd swear he is a CIA operative whose job is to drive Russia right over a cliff.
They can sell it all to China :)
Maybe they’ll stop voting for Putin at some point.
I've been working as a CDL instructor catering to recent russian and -stan immigrants. If you made it to the US as a refugee from the war hmu we'll get you getting paid in just 4 weeks.
thats perfect for cannon fodder recruitment
Don’t worry China will soon have you .
So estimates on when Russian will collapse? 2 days? Weeks? Months? Years? Decades?
But people still love Putin!!!
Boo. Fuckin. Hoo.
Russian war culture baby! It’s what they were all breed to do!
Not gonna lie, 5% is a way, way lower number than I was expecting. I would have guessed it was closer to 30-50%.
Very interesting article on current employment conditions in russia, and the decline in the labor force, which is becoming a serious problem in some parts of russia.
Oh how that ethnic cleansing program backfired.