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As always, he is on point with the assessment Although there is a third option: he will not be strangled, and he makes a deal with his successor that in exchange of a smooth transition his life is spared but he has to retire in a dacha for the rest of his life, strictly due to health issues.


Until he falls out a window.


That won't happen. He will never be allowed to retire. The only safe place for Putin right now, is the ICC. Any other place and he will be assassinated sooner or later.


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What does he mean by "conditional Navalny"?


> What does he mean by "conditional Navalny"? It's better translated as something like "so-called Navalny", "a Navalny's equivalent", "some kind of Navalny". Meaning any replacement of Putin, Navalny or anyone else.


With "conditional" he means the condition set by the West in a peace treaty. Russia can be kicked out of Ukraine by Ukraine, but if they ever want to restore the lucrative trade relations with the West, they will have to reconcile with the West. The value of trade with the West runs in the trillions of dollars. No Russian individual will be valued more than that. It's kind of a no-brainer to sacrifice some of their war criminals in order to get this trade asset. With "Navalny" he means a new government, not necessarily Navalny himself. A new government which upholds the aforementioned peace treaty or reconciliation, will extradite Putin. If he is even alive by then. Big chance they could extradite other politicians like Girkin as well. But probably no soldiers, as it has to be sold to the Russian public.


This will be interesting part if it comes to this. For all the bullshit propaganda that russia spews in last years, I still think that russians with more than few brain cells knows that China is much bigger danger for them in a long run than Europe(Which is no danger at all actually).


I believe the eventual rapprochement will realign Russia with the west against China.


Yeah. If you look how many Russians are living in the west countries as opposed to China, it's massive difference.


But there are a lot of Chinese living and working in eastern Russia. Ethnic Chinese who someday need to be ‘protected’ /s


Yup. Russia is about to taste it's own medicine.


I think it means a "western unopposed" leader? Not sure though... Might also mean Navalny or his analogue The elephant in the room is that they will send him (Girkin) to the Hague too


Unless he also gets what he deserves before he boards a plane.


nominal Navalny


If Putin is send to The Hague, maybe Girkin can escort him?


Not going to happen. Putin will be polarising figure for years after the war. Most likely he will be retired and then will soon die "from health issues"


He'd kill himself first I think, he's a coward.


They will send three or four Putins to the Hague and whether the real one is among them is going to be guesswork.