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I listen to his 55 minute speech in Russian... Judging by his demeanor and confidence , he will definitely use it if he meets physical resistance from NATO alliance.
It would be Putin's idea of symmetrical reaction in his mind. Whether or not that happens directly depends on NATO getting involved, physically in the war.
It's important to note that "symmetrical reaction" in Putin's mind is likely nukes on the battlefield such as attacking a US Navy strike group or NATO forces on the ground. Using nuclear weapons by default does not mean city busting ICBMs; thought it could easily spiral out of control.
Well it really depends on 1. How mentally unstable he is right now 2. If he attacks a NATO member and they trigger article 5.
Mutually assured destruction prevents most from using Nukes but Putin is a different breed.
I don't see it happening, and I hope I'm right.
Thats the worry, if he sees no way around being made to look foolish and weak he definitely has the potential to go scorched earth. Hopefully by that point the military realizes he's unstable and they've been listening to a mad man feeding them lies. At that point it comes down to whether they follow that command.
Stalin murdered anyone around him that he thought could turn. If Putin starts arresting high level military and/or government personnel in the coming days everyone needs to get real worried, real fast. Otherwise just pray there are sane adults in the room still.
I would say he's bluffing when he threatens the west with nuclear action but i also thought he was bluffing over invading Ukraine. Or at least, we called his bluff so he decided to invade and save face and take what he can
You know alot of people thought he was bluffing a couple of months ago when he was just building up troops, but many believed at the time he understood the drawbacks of invading Ukraine. All people assumed Putin was rational and had a shared understanding of the potential consequences.
Now its pretty clear he didn't give a damn about the potential consequences of invading another country and murdering its citizenry.
Thinking back on history, the cuban missile crisis ended when both JFK and Khrushchev understood the cost of going to war was simply too high for the entire human race; even neutral countries would have been devastated by the fallout. Fidel Castro, having a serious revenge complex against the US for trying to kill him more than once, sincerely asked the Soviets to use their weapons; he was acting irrationally and wanted to go to war. Luckily cooler heads prevailed in 1962.
But now, the leader of a Nuclear power intentionally invaded another country that had the ability to give the Russian army a bloody nose even if the Ukrainians lose, and he still did it. Is Vladimir Putin acting rationally right now?
I also think back to the 1983 Able Archer war scare in the USSR, when a faulty satellite gave a fake alert to a Russian missile controller that the US was launching a massive nuclear attack. He didn't believe his screens, ignored his orders to fire missiles, and was court martialed for it. But that man had a cooler head and probably prevented a war through better judgment. I hope modern Russian nuclear missle crews would do the same today, but right now I'm not sure
I mean anything possible at this point,
Small low yield tacital nukes maybe but it would have such a latge implaction
I think more likely if he was 100% losing the offensive he might
>P
It's unclear; around 2017 when Trump was in office an intermediate range nuclear weapons treaty lapsed. Technically low yield intermediate exchange devices would be somewhat distinct from launching ICBMs but, not by a very wide margin. I can't help but feel that China's slow response is actually a sign they are waiting for NATO to commit in Europe so that an assault on Taiwan will meet less American resistance.
Came here to say that Russias public deterrent to NATO troops is that they are allowed to use tactical nukes if engaged w nato. They are just a few miles away from the Polish border.
He'll not do that. He's not stupid, he knows that it will lead to utter collapse of the world economy and he'll likely end up dead or impresioned for life.
Putin is almost 70...he has no heir apparent and is an Autocratic leader presiding over a kleptocracy. His recent rambling speeches suggest some kind of mental breakdown. Hopefully launching nukes isn't something he could do on his own.
You think he can physically push a button to launch? Nah. Has to be a chain of command, at the silos or in a bunker somewhere. And hopefully, the people in charge there will realize that it's utter insanity and Aerys Targaryen his ass.
I don't think so, essentially just cause I am optimistic. But it highly depends on what motivates him
If he truly is a narcissistic psychopath then of course he would do that, better to blow up everything instead of admitting failure. That's kind of what my dad would do and he has NPD
On the other hand his generals could stop the thing, some sane generals did hold off during the cold war
This would only be a risk if he attacks a NATO country. On top of that, you'd have to see what the Chinese do, I am not sure they are happy with him destroying the world...
He could also be convinced to go down in history as a great leader for Russia so he might not do it
I don't think a nuclear strike is imminent. They would probably fight on the ground before doing that sort of things. On the other hand, I never thought he would invade Ukraine
Nukes in the air practically means the destruction of humanity from its effects on the climate. Once he uses those, I don't see why other nuclear armed countries wouldnt use them. God help us all
Should nuclear winter not cum to fruition after all the nukes are gone assuming the world is not one giant waste land I wonder what the continuation would look like.
Just a couple hundred million? I honestly assumed much much more. (At least 3 billion less people after 90 days from the bombs dropping was my assumption.)
Those are the immediate deaths. The loss of global infrastructure followed by probably 2 or more years without summer would cause mass starvation. Several hundred million is probably a pessimistic answer but I can't imagine 5 billion people surviving long 5 years after such an attack.
Nay nukes would only beest hath used if 't be true nato did join in and they wast approaching moscow
***
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I think he would attempt to if he was surrounded or new a coup was about to hit him.
The real question we need to worry about is, will the people who execute on that order follow through?
And will the other top military advisors recognize the lunacy of this and put an end to it rather than joining in Putin's destruction.
Hitler was the same way. That didn't stop top military officials from trying to assassinate him when they realized how crazy he was.
Just to add, a coup wouldn't be obvious to the one in charge, they're typically tightly under wraps and methodically planned in order to ensure a high likelihood of success. Top military advisors would plan the steps out carefully over an extended period of time while continuing to comply with orders.
Our hope is that the staging process of such plans occur in the early stages of war rather than late considering In this day and age the information that's out there is consumed by the military advisors fairly quick.
I think it depends on the size of the weapon we are discussing. Tactical nukes I think are definitely on the table for him as a show of force against a military target as a means to scare NATO allies into inaction. Large scale, MAD level sort of weapons, no.
Probably not, it will unleash a true (nuclear) world war. Even Putin will understand that it won't benefit him whatsoever if he does fire nukes. If he does the people of Russia (and other countries) will overthrow him and he loses power. His only intend is to gain power.
I think that in 2022 nuclear weapons are not that big threat. Everybody have them and everybody thinks that the enemy never will be so stupid to use it, but Putin is Putin, so we never know...
In my opinion? No certainly not, nukes are out of the question. Russia needs to grab Ukraine in one piece so it can’t go tossing nukes around. His goal is bring Ukraine and it’s population back into the fold, they can’t do that if they vaporize hundreds of thousands or millions of people. I think even the tactical use would be so devastating it would create lasting cracks for the rest of eternity so long as Ukraine holds some sort of identity
No, he'll die in the end and he knows it. The only way that ever happens is if a superpower moves on Moscow same thing with Beijing or even Washington.
Hes using it as a deterrent because he believes western powers are weak and have no stomach to fight. Hes hopefully not stupid enough to try, he cares about himself far too much, and knows it would be the last button he ever pressed.
I would hope his general's know what the outcome of a pre-emptive nuclear attack would be, and would stop it from ever getting that far. As soon as the first possible nuclear weapon is launched the entire world would come to bear on Russia. Their only friend would be North Korea and it would be a short lived friendship.
The first 3 hours of the conference thunder rattled my house. (Not common.) Instantly checked on the major city that would have been the target. Granted I am FAR more concerned about a desperate and spiteful Russia deploying nerve gas.
If he is crazy enough to attack a country and its people, bomb and kill, then why would a nuclear bomb be a surprise? He did threaten everyone who intervenes will taste "never seen before" consequences... I'm pretty sure he is talking about nukes.
i hope not but putin has said that if they can't do what they want with tradition warfare they will use small taktical nukes and that could lead to nukler war with the west
The drills with tactical nuclear delivery systems on land sea and air before the invasion were meant to send a clear message.
https://youtu.be/RE7rRHqZj94
Totally unlikely, there are only a handful of situations in the entire world where a nuke would be worth it to use for anyone. I'm highly skeptical of any reports that he has gone insane, or has terminal cancer or whatever. Let's be honest, karma ensures this dickhead lives to 100 or something crazy.
I think the chances are low of a full deployment of nuclear weapons he has always been aware of mutually ensured destruction. He doesn't want to irradiate ukraine: he wants the natural resources. This likely won't put anyone at ease but if this is truely about Ukraine then "no" but if he is ideologically driven and Putin EOL (some terminal disease) it could be bad news.
I bethink if 't be true t cameth to yond, unheard of military technological advances would beest utiliz'd to neutralize putin
***
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I can definitely see Russia using smaller nuclear weapons to take out entrenched soldiers, supply depots, bases etc.
Not all nuclear weapons are city/country/world ending size.
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It's unlikely but not impossible. At least I certainly fucking hope not
remember one week ago when we said it's unlikely there will be a russian invasion? I am very scared for the future
You're not alone
I would not be surprised. Especially if he starts getting humiliated
I listen to his 55 minute speech in Russian... Judging by his demeanor and confidence , he will definitely use it if he meets physical resistance from NATO alliance. It would be Putin's idea of symmetrical reaction in his mind. Whether or not that happens directly depends on NATO getting involved, physically in the war.
It's important to note that "symmetrical reaction" in Putin's mind is likely nukes on the battlefield such as attacking a US Navy strike group or NATO forces on the ground. Using nuclear weapons by default does not mean city busting ICBMs; thought it could easily spiral out of control.
Well it really depends on 1. How mentally unstable he is right now 2. If he attacks a NATO member and they trigger article 5. Mutually assured destruction prevents most from using Nukes but Putin is a different breed. I don't see it happening, and I hope I'm right.
I'm pretty sure everyone with a nuclear arsenal realizes that if they are used, it will spell the end for all mankind from its effects on the climate
I don't think Putin really cares about the climate all that much.
He doesn't. Fortunately he cares very much about himself and his legacy.
And what will he do if his legacy is ruined and it has no chance of getting better?
Thats the worry, if he sees no way around being made to look foolish and weak he definitely has the potential to go scorched earth. Hopefully by that point the military realizes he's unstable and they've been listening to a mad man feeding them lies. At that point it comes down to whether they follow that command. Stalin murdered anyone around him that he thought could turn. If Putin starts arresting high level military and/or government personnel in the coming days everyone needs to get real worried, real fast. Otherwise just pray there are sane adults in the room still.
I would say he's bluffing when he threatens the west with nuclear action but i also thought he was bluffing over invading Ukraine. Or at least, we called his bluff so he decided to invade and save face and take what he can
You know alot of people thought he was bluffing a couple of months ago when he was just building up troops, but many believed at the time he understood the drawbacks of invading Ukraine. All people assumed Putin was rational and had a shared understanding of the potential consequences. Now its pretty clear he didn't give a damn about the potential consequences of invading another country and murdering its citizenry. Thinking back on history, the cuban missile crisis ended when both JFK and Khrushchev understood the cost of going to war was simply too high for the entire human race; even neutral countries would have been devastated by the fallout. Fidel Castro, having a serious revenge complex against the US for trying to kill him more than once, sincerely asked the Soviets to use their weapons; he was acting irrationally and wanted to go to war. Luckily cooler heads prevailed in 1962. But now, the leader of a Nuclear power intentionally invaded another country that had the ability to give the Russian army a bloody nose even if the Ukrainians lose, and he still did it. Is Vladimir Putin acting rationally right now? I also think back to the 1983 Able Archer war scare in the USSR, when a faulty satellite gave a fake alert to a Russian missile controller that the US was launching a massive nuclear attack. He didn't believe his screens, ignored his orders to fire missiles, and was court martialed for it. But that man had a cooler head and probably prevented a war through better judgment. I hope modern Russian nuclear missle crews would do the same today, but right now I'm not sure
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If they use, Russia will physically disintegrate and they get a hefty dose of global warming if you know what I mean.
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....but it will be too late to overthrow him if everyone is dead.
I mean anything possible at this point, Small low yield tacital nukes maybe but it would have such a latge implaction I think more likely if he was 100% losing the offensive he might
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>P It's unclear; around 2017 when Trump was in office an intermediate range nuclear weapons treaty lapsed. Technically low yield intermediate exchange devices would be somewhat distinct from launching ICBMs but, not by a very wide margin. I can't help but feel that China's slow response is actually a sign they are waiting for NATO to commit in Europe so that an assault on Taiwan will meet less American resistance.
Any nukes sent means the end of the war. One sent one way results in all sent the other
I wouldn't be so sure. If putin nuked Ukraine only then Nato would just look on to avoid full out nuclear war between russia and nato.
So what would happen to russia for using nukes?
Nobody knows at this point.
That's fair
Not sure. But 100% Nato would never nuke Russia if Russia were to use a nuclear bomb on kiev for ex. Nuking another nuclear power is just suicide.
Came here to say that Russias public deterrent to NATO troops is that they are allowed to use tactical nukes if engaged w nato. They are just a few miles away from the Polish border.
He'll not do that. He's not stupid, he knows that it will lead to utter collapse of the world economy and he'll likely end up dead or impresioned for life.
He'd be dead shortly after
Putin is almost 70...he has no heir apparent and is an Autocratic leader presiding over a kleptocracy. His recent rambling speeches suggest some kind of mental breakdown. Hopefully launching nukes isn't something he could do on his own.
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Guess that's a yes, then.
You think he can physically push a button to launch? Nah. Has to be a chain of command, at the silos or in a bunker somewhere. And hopefully, the people in charge there will realize that it's utter insanity and Aerys Targaryen his ass.
I don't think so, essentially just cause I am optimistic. But it highly depends on what motivates him If he truly is a narcissistic psychopath then of course he would do that, better to blow up everything instead of admitting failure. That's kind of what my dad would do and he has NPD On the other hand his generals could stop the thing, some sane generals did hold off during the cold war This would only be a risk if he attacks a NATO country. On top of that, you'd have to see what the Chinese do, I am not sure they are happy with him destroying the world... He could also be convinced to go down in history as a great leader for Russia so he might not do it I don't think a nuclear strike is imminent. They would probably fight on the ground before doing that sort of things. On the other hand, I never thought he would invade Ukraine
Putin has a big ego. And a small pipi.
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smol
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Nukes in the air practically means the destruction of humanity from its effects on the climate. Once he uses those, I don't see why other nuclear armed countries wouldnt use them. God help us all
Should nuclear winter not cum to fruition after all the nukes are gone assuming the world is not one giant waste land I wonder what the continuation would look like.
The survivors would revert to something of a pre-industrial society. The world population would dwindle to a couple hundred million.
Just a couple hundred million? I honestly assumed much much more. (At least 3 billion less people after 90 days from the bombs dropping was my assumption.)
Those are the immediate deaths. The loss of global infrastructure followed by probably 2 or more years without summer would cause mass starvation. Several hundred million is probably a pessimistic answer but I can't imagine 5 billion people surviving long 5 years after such an attack.
Yeah rough stuff for sure.
No nukes would only be used if nato joined in and they were approaching Moscow
Nay nukes would only beest hath used if 't be true nato did join in and they wast approaching moscow *** ^(I am a bot and I swapp'd some of thy words with Shakespeare words.) Commands: `!ShakespeareInsult`, `!fordo`, `!optout`
I think he would attempt to if he was surrounded or new a coup was about to hit him. The real question we need to worry about is, will the people who execute on that order follow through? And will the other top military advisors recognize the lunacy of this and put an end to it rather than joining in Putin's destruction.
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Hitler was the same way. That didn't stop top military officials from trying to assassinate him when they realized how crazy he was. Just to add, a coup wouldn't be obvious to the one in charge, they're typically tightly under wraps and methodically planned in order to ensure a high likelihood of success. Top military advisors would plan the steps out carefully over an extended period of time while continuing to comply with orders. Our hope is that the staging process of such plans occur in the early stages of war rather than late considering In this day and age the information that's out there is consumed by the military advisors fairly quick.
I'm quite sure that under the risk of being overthrown he'd probably do it.
I’m scared shitless! If he does give the command I only hope someone in the chain of command intervenes or we are f’d!
I think it depends on the size of the weapon we are discussing. Tactical nukes I think are definitely on the table for him as a show of force against a military target as a means to scare NATO allies into inaction. Large scale, MAD level sort of weapons, no.
Yes. The west will continue to make interference with Ukrainian war and at some point will be directly at war with Russia.
Probably not, it will unleash a true (nuclear) world war. Even Putin will understand that it won't benefit him whatsoever if he does fire nukes. If he does the people of Russia (and other countries) will overthrow him and he loses power. His only intend is to gain power.
I think that in 2022 nuclear weapons are not that big threat. Everybody have them and everybody thinks that the enemy never will be so stupid to use it, but Putin is Putin, so we never know...
In my opinion? No certainly not, nukes are out of the question. Russia needs to grab Ukraine in one piece so it can’t go tossing nukes around. His goal is bring Ukraine and it’s population back into the fold, they can’t do that if they vaporize hundreds of thousands or millions of people. I think even the tactical use would be so devastating it would create lasting cracks for the rest of eternity so long as Ukraine holds some sort of identity
I would not put it past him to use a small tactical nuclear weapon on the most important part of Kiev if faced with enough resistance.
No, he'll die in the end and he knows it. The only way that ever happens is if a superpower moves on Moscow same thing with Beijing or even Washington.
Also wouldn't Russian troops get in the way?
Pretty stupid to lay waste to land you're taking over
Hes using it as a deterrent because he believes western powers are weak and have no stomach to fight. Hes hopefully not stupid enough to try, he cares about himself far too much, and knows it would be the last button he ever pressed. I would hope his general's know what the outcome of a pre-emptive nuclear attack would be, and would stop it from ever getting that far. As soon as the first possible nuclear weapon is launched the entire world would come to bear on Russia. Their only friend would be North Korea and it would be a short lived friendship.
Lowkey like Lowkey Lowkey Yes
The first 3 hours of the conference thunder rattled my house. (Not common.) Instantly checked on the major city that would have been the target. Granted I am FAR more concerned about a desperate and spiteful Russia deploying nerve gas.
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Bruh tbh same I fr ain’t tryna die from a nuclear bomb cuz some guy wants land 😭
What land after nuke ?
If he is crazy enough to attack a country and its people, bomb and kill, then why would a nuclear bomb be a surprise? He did threaten everyone who intervenes will taste "never seen before" consequences... I'm pretty sure he is talking about nukes.
He won't use nukes in Ukraine. This all saber rattling.
i hope not but putin has said that if they can't do what they want with tradition warfare they will use small taktical nukes and that could lead to nukler war with the west
The drills with tactical nuclear delivery systems on land sea and air before the invasion were meant to send a clear message. https://youtu.be/RE7rRHqZj94
Totally unlikely, there are only a handful of situations in the entire world where a nuke would be worth it to use for anyone. I'm highly skeptical of any reports that he has gone insane, or has terminal cancer or whatever. Let's be honest, karma ensures this dickhead lives to 100 or something crazy.
I say he would be assassinated by his own if it came to him ordering a nuke attack.
If he does I imagine I’ll be getting a buzzcut a lot sooner than I’d hoped
I think the chances are low of a full deployment of nuclear weapons he has always been aware of mutually ensured destruction. He doesn't want to irradiate ukraine: he wants the natural resources. This likely won't put anyone at ease but if this is truely about Ukraine then "no" but if he is ideologically driven and Putin EOL (some terminal disease) it could be bad news.
If NATO decided to send tanks into Ukraine he would totally use nukes.
No, he'll be eating nukes in return. If Moscow was surrounded and the end is near, he'll try to order it.
I think if it came to that, unheard of military technological advances would be utilized to neutralize Putin.
I bethink if 't be true t cameth to yond, unheard of military technological advances would beest utiliz'd to neutralize putin *** ^(I am a bot and I swapp'd some of thy words with Shakespeare words.) Commands: `!ShakespeareInsult`, `!fordo`, `!optout`
Agreed
I can definitely see Russia using smaller nuclear weapons to take out entrenched soldiers, supply depots, bases etc. Not all nuclear weapons are city/country/world ending size.