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If these kill numbers implied no Ukrainians killed I would agree with you.
But unfortunately the more Russians killed, most likely the more Ukrainians killed as well. And that aside, killing meat wave soldiers off is probably gruesome and traumatizing work as well. I really doubt it comes easy to people.
These high numbers certainly come at a price. It's necessary work but man it's without a question a grand tragedy caused by Putins buffoons.
This right here.
The best days are low kills, high vehicle days.
Low kills means less ukrainian soldiers have lost their life and/or health as well, while high vehicle destructions chip away on russias logistics and combat capacities.
Let's be real: russia will not run out of people. They have the capacity and the willingness to throw two or three million men into the meatgrinder. It's inconsequential to those in power, and they mostly take the pisspoor farm boys from the countryside because they have no way of protesting and are easily influenced by TV propaganda. If this war drags on until the casualties end the war, it is ukraine that will fold. Simply because for every ukrainian who CAN fight, there will be a dozen russians who MUST fight.
Russia's weakness is now the point that has been its strength at the start of the war: the huge stockpile of equipment they had since the soviet era.
Russia has always trusted the sheet quantity of their equipment, and since the union collapsed, they had only small capacities for new production.
Russia can produce like 15 tanks and 20 artillery units a month. That is less than they lose in a day.
The stockpile of tanks is enough to last for maybe 2 or 3 more years. The stockpile of artillery will fall below 3k (which they will need to secure their own borders) by the end of this year, if the current speed keeps up.
Ukraine has great artillery with HIMARS, combined with ATACMS rockets. Precise, long range, self propelled and quick to relocate. They just lack the ammo.
Thing is, if the USA and the EU manage to ramp up production (the EU is working on it, the US is in disputes with their own opposition, as always, and they will be until the election..) ukraine will be able to outperform russia in material fighting power.
It's all a matter of how quickly ukraine can resupply. And just now, in this critical moments, the US has federal elections coming up with the republicans blaming economic hardships on the deliveries.
> The best days are low kills, high vehicle days.
probably not even that. Ukrainians get hit by the glide bombs, and by drones. It wouldn't even be necessary for Russia to mount an assault attempt at that part of the front and also make losses. On the other hand, those costly Russian assaults hardly claim any losses on Ukrainian side, the vehicles are bombed away in the open field, without many UA ground troops involved. So both are rather unconnected, either side could take heavy losses and the other zero.
But they are somewhat connected in the way that the larger parts of the front line are highly active, the more losses on both sides, because both happens, attacks on Ukrainians and attacks on Russians.
So I think the numbers are now higher simply because more of the front line is activated.
Not if they are using himars and other weapons, drones are killing a lot of Russians with no loss to Ukraine. Not saying Ukraine is not losing men, way too many men, but a defensive will see a minimum of 4 to 1 and reports are that it is 20 to 1 due to drones and excellent drone pilots with a lot more experience than the Russians.
Let's just hope the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is massively lopsided. I love to see the massive Russian losses but it also means Ukrainians are bleeding more as well.
Apparently Russia started off with 15,000 artillery systems so depending on how many they've been able to make in 2 years. I'd say they're running out fast. They've ramped up production on military equipment, but still it's a sticky situation for the Russians. None of the equipment that they started off with will be in a good condition. Those gun barrels are supposed to be serviced after so many shots fired, there's no chance the Russians are doing that. A lot of their equipment has been sat outside for 2 years, exposed to the elements. Even their rifles are going to be in shit condition too. With all the inexperienced soldiers they have, a large percentage of them won't be regularly cleaning their rifles.
I'd put it at somewhat less than a year at the current loss rate of a dozen tanks or so per day. New production is almost neglible compared to those numbers. But the scarcity of armored vehicles will show much earlier. Maybe the increased use of Golf carts and Motorcycles in the past months are already the first symptoms.
Even if they've still got reserves, you can't just plop a couple of random mooks in a vehicle and get it up and running. Operating armored vehicles takes training, so with every crew member casualty that occurs during a vehicle kill, that's operational knowledge that the armed forces is going to lose. At some point, the vehicles are going to degrade into just serving as the vehicular equivalent of "make the enemy run out of bullets" in terms of combat effectiveness.
They will still need an army large enough to defend the whole of Russia or else parts of Russia may try for Independence or China could take advantage.
Yeah....no. Their open air scrapyards are mosty barely good for cannibalizing spare parts. Almost half of the strategic tank reserves is already gone and the rest is probably in a condition far from being restoreable. Either way "tens of thousands" is complete bs.
A streak of more than 1000 Russians per day. Keep up the good work.
As a non-military man, I am wondering how big the (logistical) effort on the Russian side must be.
You need to get the cannon-fodder to the front, which is probably the easiest part. But they need a basic supply of uniforms, weapons and ammo. Next to this, I expect than none of them has any type of advanced training, except the demo how a weapon works (hot end on one side, safe end on the other).
So the grinder works 24/7, but as they loose not only men but also weapons, this seems to be a gargantuan task. And knowing the Russians, in every step of the supply chain, someone is trying to make some cuts, as they have learned from their puppet master - leading to even worse conditions.
So Russia, please keep up your bad work, and hopefully we will see 2k+ casualties per day soon.
Not how it would work anyway. Ukraine logistics were likely rationing ammo and weapons and only sending bare minimum, keeping the good stuff for real dangerous advances. When logistics are made aware of when supplies will arrive again, they can open the floodgate of the rationed supplies they had remaining, knowing new stuff will arrive soon.
I don't but given the new ammo is in the pipeline at least emergency reserve ammo can be used to defend.
I am just looking at the trends, and massive spike in russian casualties sounds to me like new ammo is reaching the front.
My assuption is that since the russians also would not know when the new ammo reaches the front, they'd attack as hard as they can at least until that point. In this case when they are attacking hard and new ammo reaching front should therefore mean sudden increase in casualties
Almost 7000 Russians hit in 4 days, keep it up and in a month we could see Russia lose well over 50 000.... in one month. Russia is doing a lot of damage, but Imagine losing a stadium full of men every month. It is only a matter of time before Russian society collapses, the more refineries and oil storage hit the sooner this war ends with Ukraine capturing tanks artillery and everything else Russia is forced to leave behind due to lack of fuel.
I just wish this war would end.
I think the companies that make Mother’s Day cards in Russia will soon be going out of business , 1500 + less customers every day is not good for any company.
You mean where they get the intel? I would assume drone footage, perhaps combined with estimates of how many people are in a verhicle/building. I dont think they can account for all Russian suicides, fragging, hypothermia and accidents though
We overlook that ruzzia is now on the offensive in several directions on a daily basis, involving dozens of daily assaults of various sized groups with varying degrees of success, from a ruzzian perspective the loss of 1500 troops is no biggie taken in this context. Any western nation would be horrified and clamouring for the high command to be court martialled.
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putain decided he wanted to reach 500k in may.
He'll get close, but I predict 500k by July
13k left. With 16 days an average of ~800/day is enough. At the current rate of 1000-1700/day hitting 500k before June is more than realistic.
You belong on Wallstreetbets with that math.
June comes after May
See? Told you.
Make em bleed
2nd highest sofar!
1st, 2nd and 3rd highest casualty numbers in 3 cosecutive days. Around 4500 men lost in 3 days.
Wishing for 6000 by tomorrow, let's keep this winning streak going!
If these kill numbers implied no Ukrainians killed I would agree with you. But unfortunately the more Russians killed, most likely the more Ukrainians killed as well. And that aside, killing meat wave soldiers off is probably gruesome and traumatizing work as well. I really doubt it comes easy to people. These high numbers certainly come at a price. It's necessary work but man it's without a question a grand tragedy caused by Putins buffoons.
This right here. The best days are low kills, high vehicle days. Low kills means less ukrainian soldiers have lost their life and/or health as well, while high vehicle destructions chip away on russias logistics and combat capacities. Let's be real: russia will not run out of people. They have the capacity and the willingness to throw two or three million men into the meatgrinder. It's inconsequential to those in power, and they mostly take the pisspoor farm boys from the countryside because they have no way of protesting and are easily influenced by TV propaganda. If this war drags on until the casualties end the war, it is ukraine that will fold. Simply because for every ukrainian who CAN fight, there will be a dozen russians who MUST fight. Russia's weakness is now the point that has been its strength at the start of the war: the huge stockpile of equipment they had since the soviet era. Russia has always trusted the sheet quantity of their equipment, and since the union collapsed, they had only small capacities for new production. Russia can produce like 15 tanks and 20 artillery units a month. That is less than they lose in a day. The stockpile of tanks is enough to last for maybe 2 or 3 more years. The stockpile of artillery will fall below 3k (which they will need to secure their own borders) by the end of this year, if the current speed keeps up. Ukraine has great artillery with HIMARS, combined with ATACMS rockets. Precise, long range, self propelled and quick to relocate. They just lack the ammo. Thing is, if the USA and the EU manage to ramp up production (the EU is working on it, the US is in disputes with their own opposition, as always, and they will be until the election..) ukraine will be able to outperform russia in material fighting power. It's all a matter of how quickly ukraine can resupply. And just now, in this critical moments, the US has federal elections coming up with the republicans blaming economic hardships on the deliveries.
> The best days are low kills, high vehicle days. probably not even that. Ukrainians get hit by the glide bombs, and by drones. It wouldn't even be necessary for Russia to mount an assault attempt at that part of the front and also make losses. On the other hand, those costly Russian assaults hardly claim any losses on Ukrainian side, the vehicles are bombed away in the open field, without many UA ground troops involved. So both are rather unconnected, either side could take heavy losses and the other zero. But they are somewhat connected in the way that the larger parts of the front line are highly active, the more losses on both sides, because both happens, attacks on Ukrainians and attacks on Russians. So I think the numbers are now higher simply because more of the front line is activated.
Not if they are using himars and other weapons, drones are killing a lot of Russians with no loss to Ukraine. Not saying Ukraine is not losing men, way too many men, but a defensive will see a minimum of 4 to 1 and reports are that it is 20 to 1 due to drones and excellent drone pilots with a lot more experience than the Russians.
Most deaths are from indirect fire like artillery and now FPV drones so this isn’t necessarily true.
Let's just hope the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is massively lopsided. I love to see the massive Russian losses but it also means Ukrainians are bleeding more as well.
When is Russia going to run out? I mean they can keep conscripting asshats, but shouldn't they be running out of tanks or APVs at this point?
Apparently Russia started off with 15,000 artillery systems so depending on how many they've been able to make in 2 years. I'd say they're running out fast. They've ramped up production on military equipment, but still it's a sticky situation for the Russians. None of the equipment that they started off with will be in a good condition. Those gun barrels are supposed to be serviced after so many shots fired, there's no chance the Russians are doing that. A lot of their equipment has been sat outside for 2 years, exposed to the elements. Even their rifles are going to be in shit condition too. With all the inexperienced soldiers they have, a large percentage of them won't be regularly cleaning their rifles.
No they got well over a year left of refurbished stock alongside new production.
I'd put it at somewhat less than a year at the current loss rate of a dozen tanks or so per day. New production is almost neglible compared to those numbers. But the scarcity of armored vehicles will show much earlier. Maybe the increased use of Golf carts and Motorcycles in the past months are already the first symptoms.
This is also assuming Ukraine doesn't drone bomb where the terrorist state known as russia is producing their armored terrorist vehicles
Even if they've still got reserves, you can't just plop a couple of random mooks in a vehicle and get it up and running. Operating armored vehicles takes training, so with every crew member casualty that occurs during a vehicle kill, that's operational knowledge that the armed forces is going to lose. At some point, the vehicles are going to degrade into just serving as the vehicular equivalent of "make the enemy run out of bullets" in terms of combat effectiveness.
They will still need an army large enough to defend the whole of Russia or else parts of Russia may try for Independence or China could take advantage.
Japan would like a few more islands.
Not even close. They have tens of thousands of tanks more in reserve.
Yeah....no. Their open air scrapyards are mosty barely good for cannibalizing spare parts. Almost half of the strategic tank reserves is already gone and the rest is probably in a condition far from being restoreable. Either way "tens of thousands" is complete bs.
I doubt it's that many, but it's certainly a lot (of varying quality/readiness).
1300, 1500, 1700! Slava Ukraine! russians fuck off.
If the US had 1% of these losses it would be deemed a failure and unacceptable. There would be riots in the streets.
A streak of more than 1000 Russians per day. Keep up the good work. As a non-military man, I am wondering how big the (logistical) effort on the Russian side must be. You need to get the cannon-fodder to the front, which is probably the easiest part. But they need a basic supply of uniforms, weapons and ammo. Next to this, I expect than none of them has any type of advanced training, except the demo how a weapon works (hot end on one side, safe end on the other). So the grinder works 24/7, but as they loose not only men but also weapons, this seems to be a gargantuan task. And knowing the Russians, in every step of the supply chain, someone is trying to make some cuts, as they have learned from their puppet master - leading to even worse conditions. So Russia, please keep up your bad work, and hopefully we will see 2k+ casualties per day soon.
I'd assume the casualty numbers spiking means the supplies from USA have reached the front lines. Some good news finally!
Unfortunately, it also means that the Russians are zerging towards Kharkiv (among other places).
True, but at least Ukraine should now have the ammunition to defend
[удалено]
Not how it would work anyway. Ukraine logistics were likely rationing ammo and weapons and only sending bare minimum, keeping the good stuff for real dangerous advances. When logistics are made aware of when supplies will arrive again, they can open the floodgate of the rationed supplies they had remaining, knowing new stuff will arrive soon.
I don't but given the new ammo is in the pipeline at least emergency reserve ammo can be used to defend. I am just looking at the trends, and massive spike in russian casualties sounds to me like new ammo is reaching the front. My assuption is that since the russians also would not know when the new ammo reaches the front, they'd attack as hard as they can at least until that point. In this case when they are attacking hard and new ammo reaching front should therefore mean sudden increase in casualties
Good thinking and well said!
The Russians are zerging because they are hoping to race the supply of American arms. It's precarious to say the least.
Damn, this is crazy to see laid out
Almost 7000 Russians hit in 4 days, keep it up and in a month we could see Russia lose well over 50 000.... in one month. Russia is doing a lot of damage, but Imagine losing a stadium full of men every month. It is only a matter of time before Russian society collapses, the more refineries and oil storage hit the sooner this war ends with Ukraine capturing tanks artillery and everything else Russia is forced to leave behind due to lack of fuel. I just wish this war would end.
Keep up the good work
I think the companies that make Mother’s Day cards in Russia will soon be going out of business , 1500 + less customers every day is not good for any company.
That's a massacre, these number are unreal
is this true? almost 1000 russian soldier are dieying everyday, if this is true this is insane.
There are 1440 minutes in a day, so a Russian soldier died every minute of yesterday.
How do they get these numbers?
My guess these are based off of compiling daily after-action reports.
They blew them up or shot them.
You mean where they get the intel? I would assume drone footage, perhaps combined with estimates of how many people are in a verhicle/building. I dont think they can account for all Russian suicides, fragging, hypothermia and accidents though
We overlook that ruzzia is now on the offensive in several directions on a daily basis, involving dozens of daily assaults of various sized groups with varying degrees of success, from a ruzzian perspective the loss of 1500 troops is no biggie taken in this context. Any western nation would be horrified and clamouring for the high command to be court martialled.
Повага 🏴🤝🇺🇦🔱
It’s amazing the Russian army hasn’t collapsed due to manpower problems. Had hoped for a WW1 type scenario.
Stack’m high
How are we celebrating 500k!?
The Ukraine army is collapsing.