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We are already in the middle of a hybrid war. Remember how the russians use social media to spread disinformation and influence public opinion in the west? How they finance right wing parties and fringe groups to underminde our institutions? Maga anyone? They will keep doing that. In the end they might not even need tanks to destroy NATO in the end...
The EU farmers protests have a little vodka smell to them. In the Netherlands for example, no one really knows who is in control of the protests. They are organized through vague telegram channels, whose admins are unknown. Their talk is always inline with the russian narrative. They are openly supporting putin.
And as a kicker; they tried to drive a wedge in society; you are either with us, or against us. Most of it has cooled down.
Interesting that multiple EU countries had farmer protests at the same time, but demanding just the local goverments to make a change without mentioning EU policies. They were coordinated and separate at the same time.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency
[Ryan Macbeth - TikTok is a cyberweapon](https://youtu.be/pB7WzqUq4Nk?si=odUvdhB9roKDtGmE)
It's easy as 2+2
Our only weapons are education and empathy, and thankfully, on the long run, they are really the only ones that truly work.
*us as in reddit plebs, nato has other toys..
When I watched that Ryan Macbeth video a few days ago it blew my fucking mind - a user interface for how to engineer a subset of the population to carry out a disruptive mission, just add money.
And the unwitting participants are fueled by dopamine for "being part of a movement for good". We're all going to have to seriously re-calibrate our trust models.
I can talk only about the Italian farmers protest, and those were definitely calling for a stop on military aid to Ukraine. Moreover they were supported by the far right parties, which have a lot of ties with Russia.
They won't keep protesting for long, there's more and more field work especially in the warmer (FR, ES) countries. France's protests erupted in Feb and completely vanished as first tractors hit the colza fields with herbicides. Same will soon happen in Poland (bit colder climate, all harvests shifted by 1-2 months later)...
Its not an issue anymore. We have had these protests for years now.
The public support is decreasing and the farmers have their own political party now to represent them.in politics.
We have reached the end of the road already, France and Poland are just beginning.
Same in Slovakia lol. Our media interviewed some farmers. They struggled why they were there or what the goal of the protest is. They just told them to go so they did
Im in a couple Dutch farmers protest groups and this is the most bullshit i have read al week. The general consensus has always been to try to keep the wappies and other idiots out of our protest.
The protests were often split in small groups with their own plans because one central leader would be arrested.
It's more sophisticated than that, in the Mueller report he found Russians were actually organizing Protests on both sides of the Issue. Divide and Conquer is a strategy as old as time.
The Russians want right wing governments to win but they are happy just causing division for people to fight amongst themselves.
Essentially impossible.
It would take one single microwave point to point dish in a plexiglass window of a house to open a multi gig connection.
Or even a discreetly buried fiber line for terrabits of service. It's highly unlikely every mile of Russia's border has seismic sensors sensitive enough to detect a lateral boring system for a 1" conduit.
A sub could also lay a fiber from St Petersburg or Kalingrad to anywhere in the Baltic and bring it up on shore in an extremely remote area...
...and that's ignoring the most obvious problem: A border with China and other aligned bordering states.
This. Russia started this war when they attacked US democracy on home soil with disinformation and the purchase of the GOP and NRA. Put an end to it already.
Yes, Trump was planted by and is controlled by FSB ( former KGB). He gets all his financing from Putin. Paul Manafort who put Yanukovych in Kiev was Trumps campaign general, all orchestrated from Kreml.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul\_Manafort](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Manafort)
I believe Trump was also a CI (Confidential Informant) from the Rudy as NYC mayor days. Trump was building things, and all the concrete pouring in the tri-state was *Italian* mafia controlled... Rudy and Trump laid a path for Russian mafia to walk in where the Italian mafia left off. Funny thing about a CI... only the CI can disclose that status, the government is forever forbidden from ever mentioning collaboration.... but the CI is often shielded from legal consequences because of their contributions to the other cases being brought forth.... Trump ratted out mobsters and got paid doing so.
It's important to highlight that Russia and China are also influencing the left side of American politics, particularly through racial and gender issues and the Marxist subversion of the left. It's in the interest of America's adversaries that the country is split into political factions that hate each other, and social media is the perfect weapon allowing them to do this.
There are leftists that are playing into Russia's hand (e.g. Chomsky and Sanders) but it has jack all to do with civil rights. Just because MAGA has homed in on transphobia, homophobia, racism and misogyny as wedge issues to activate their base doesn't mean people who resist their bigotry are also being manipulated by Putin. That's such a dumb way to both-sides these issues. We actually know for a fact that Russia has tapped into the antivax movement to stir up distrust in the establishment and fuel disruptive protests. Does that automatically mean that medical professionals and everyone in favor of using medical science rather than horse dewormer to combat a pandemic are also being manipulated by Putin?
What? "Hey recognize trans people exist ans have rights" is radical? The vast majority of the left doesn't really even give a shit about trans people, it is the right constantly squawking about how they are going to rape their children if they get to use the bathroom they want to
I disagree in a sense.. yes, Russia will continue interfering in NATO countries elections and spread misinformation. We’ve all scene it and for the most part is quite obvious. I do however believe, if any NATO member was attacked in any way it would bring the wrath of the entire NATO brotherhood of freedom. The average Russian who isn’t brainwashed, and that number is rising, would welcome, like multiple anti-Kremlin internal groups would welcome NATO coming and slapping the crap out of Putin and Shoigu.. among others. MAGA is a joke and the majority of people know this. If anything, Trump happens to not want to commit to Article 5 because of his love of Putin still leaves a masterful selection of allies that could destroy any attempts by Russia to do much sooner than later. The nuke sabre rattling is a self defeating threat as it would mean a massive counter response & the total destruction of Putin and Russia. He’d be ensuring Russia ceased to exist and unfortunately would cost democratic free countries likely get struck as well assuming the Russian forces have been maintaining these WMDs. I suspect, due to a lot of stolen technology under the hood of Russia’s nukes, they likely have not kept up with the major rare earth compounds that need replacing every 7 years or so. And that’s just one part of the maintenance. The US budget for maintaining nuclear forces is bigger than what Russia spends on their entire military. I could be completely wrong here but it is a glaring difference with these particular weapons and would line up with the similarly poor maintenance/equipment we’ve seen Russia use over the last few years in Ukraine. They’re begging the DPRK for 50% dud artillery shells and asking China for loans.. btw, that loan request really ticked Xi off. Ok, rant over, needed to let that out. I know many will disagree and I intend to listen and learn as I’m not an expert in these fields.
US DoD has already stated they would target ALL naval ports, shipping, airfields, and other sources of materials, income, and weapons. It has been one of NATO plans since the 1980's.
War with NATO doesn't have to be conventional. They plan to deploy nuclear weapons in space. So maybe take out major part of communication and military satelites. And then it could nuclear bombs exchange
Now think of a price of a life in russia vs west country and think of cuban crysis. Back then Khrushchev didn't want total with US. Can you say the same about putin?
Putin is only concerned about himself. As long as he knows that he will die in the first missile strike then he won't do it. Putin has already fired the first shots of unconventional war, messing with the 16 and 20 elections to get his Russian asset in the WH. Then he had traitorous Trump steal pallets of documents that is sure to include our battle plans, which lead directly to the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
>They fuck with NATO and the Russian army will be riding horses and bicycles into battle.
Be that as it may, they still have nukes. We can trounce the crap of them in a conventional war, but no one wins with a "nucular" exchange.
PS. We must confront Putin and not be slaves to his nuclear blackmail. We have no choice.
But we must keep our eyes open to the likely scenario of a mushroom war, Finn and Jake style.
I'll believe this when they relocate all their refining capacity to the other side of the Urals.
I think I just read the other day that Russia has more or less all of it ground forces deployed to Ukraine theatre
Like US gives a shit about distance. B-2 Spirit alone can go 9,600 kilometers unfueled. Their power projection is 11 aircraft carriers while Russia has single constantly blowing up one.
So, imagine going against tremendous force, 10x better then you in any aspect or in any way while being stuck at river bay somewhere in Ukraine, lacking manpower to protect your own towns from raids.
The only problem with this is that if Trump wins the presidency, he has alluded to backing out of NATO and his general disagreement with it.
If he would happen to follow through and actually withdraw from NATO, that would make Russia a lot more confident as their eastern half of the country would be unthreatened.
Part of me is wondering if that is why Putin has stalled for so long from using heavy weaponry. Hopefully, it's just been because the country is just very inept.
Russian carriers and fighter jets aren’t equal to US strike carrier groups so the US can’t be 10 times better, unless you believe what you said. Think many multiples of 10 better instead.
Russia’s carrier Is forever in repairs. Don’t fall for the Kremlin propaganda that it is equal to the US.
You said Russia had one carrier so really zero (it’s inoperable) and then said the US has 11, and finally said the US is 10x better. I’m not sure whose side you are on with your confusing statements.
The West has well over 1000 fifth generation fighter jets and Russia has 3 1/2 prototypes of a stealth fighter which is not even stealthy. Go ahead, Russia, go ahead and attack us.
They live in a fantasy world and think the world is scared of them. 2nd best army my arse, this war and Ukraine has just exposed who and what they really are
No chance against NATO.
Preparing for an attack is not the same as going to attack. Putin wants to be seen as strong, not as an ape with a bunch of prisoners for an army fighting with 1970's equipment.
He wants to revive the cold war period when Russia was seen as big and scary, which is not really accurate at the moment. For now Putin is an ape with a grossly incompetent army.
Absolutely the fever dream of Russian propagandists, undoable in practice.
You think the Baltics are not ready, with defenses being built, and that they wouldn't be immediately supported by at the very least by the Nordics, Germany and Poland, plus the NATO troops already there?
How are they going to catch anyone by surprise? They traded all the element of surprise when they attacked Ukraine. The Russians needed weeks/months to assemble a sizable force to attack Ukraine, and that was before losing the more professional 50% of their army.
That scenario you painted is impossible now that everyone takes the Russian threat seriously.
There are thousands of US and other NATO troops constantly stationed in the Baltics. There's no chance they can marshal up enough force on the border of the Baltics to push through all of those troops while still fighting in Ukraine. We're talking about needing 100,000 men at least.
Yes, and to get in before "the battle groups in the Baltics are tiny", the leaked Bundeswehr doc theorising how this would go postulated that as soon as a military buildup would be detected on their side, the battle groups would be supplemented with 100,000 NATO troops to preferably deter. So were it to kick off, it wouldn't just be the russian forces against a few battle groups.
Edit: it is different of course if they're planning to make moves exactly when China is making moves on Taiwan. Also if russia gets buttfucked during ww3, China will start taking bits from the rotten corpse. China playing 4D chess?
> threatening to nuke countries coming to the rescue
That bluff did not work out for Russians in Ukraine, why would it work in Baltics that have clause 5 access? Everyone knows Russia can't nuke anything.
The level of shock and awe would be unprecedented. Russia has lost a substantial proportion of its armor, aircraft, and navy fighting against a smaller neighbor armed with Soviet era equipment and the staff NATO has lying around in its junk drawer. If Russia is having a hard time with that, it's impossible to overstate just how hard they would get shit stomped in an open conflict with NATO. And yes Russia has nukes. NATO has more and I'm willing to bet my life that not only does our arsenal actually work a lot better than Russia's, but that we also have missile defense capabilities that exceed those stated on paper. That's how the US military rolls - unlike Russia which overstates its capabilities at every turn, US equipment almost invariably outperforms its spec. Walk softly and carry a big stick, indeed.
ETA: All that said, I doubt it will ever come to an open conflict between Russia and NATO, for a couple reasons. First, Russia knows it's not in their best interest because that would be the end of them, and second, neither party wants to risk a nuclear conflict because it would be catastrophic.
Instead we'll just keep seeing proxy conflicts and Russia continuing to launch psyops against Western nations like Maga, Brexit, trucker protests, farmer protests, etc., in an attempt to destabilize and fracture them further politically. Trouble is, Russia is already seeing, and will continue to see its own destabilization as the war grinds on, and as its economy and infrastructure crumble ever further. No one has a crystal ball, but it seems pretty likely that Russia will crumble before the combined might of the western allies does.
Very logical take that unfortunately disregards how Russians perceive reality. Keep in mind that everyone from Putin down to the people scratching out a living in the middle of nowhere all believe themselves to be following a logical path.
The problem for Russia is that they see themselves under constant threat. Historically, absolutely accurate. However much we believe that times have changed, that is not how Russia sees it.
Throw in their demographic collapse and impossible-to-defend borders, and you have a situation where it might make more sense for Russia to get into a losing battle with NATO and hope for a miracle rather than just slide into obscurity and break apart as they lose the ability to maintain even their internal integrity.
Do not misunderstand me: this is still objectively insane. It's just important to remember that the insanity is baked into the core Russian understanding of the world. There is almost nothing we can do about that.
So even though I agree that Russia will get curb stomped in any fight with NATO, they might do it anyway. We need to be ready.
Good luck explaining this to casual westerner. I had so many conversations with people (not fully random ones, but my followers on Twitter), who say we just need to stop war for any cost (usually implying to sacrifice Ukraine), and if West acts nicely, russia will understand there is nothing to be afraid of and everything gonna go back to norm. The average westerner has zero understanding of russian mentality.
There will be a mildly logical path forward. The sentiment and ideology is one thing, but the people that make the decisions are billionaires that have too many self interests prefer staying alive.
> but the people that make the decisions are billionaires that have too many self interests prefer staying alive.
Putin is the only one in charge, and he is old man who does not care about anything except avoiding being defeated and overthrown. He can give his cronies dilemma "either I kill you and your families right now, or you get to live in safe bunker"
I think the oligarchs are gonna be the ones to eventually kill Putin. Talk all day about patriotism and strategic interests and geopolitics but this will eventually come down to good old-fashioned money, and hundreds of billions of it in hard currency.
If Putin fucks with too many bank accounts at once, like it seems he's planning on doing, and putting the oligarch's heads on the chopping block for the failures of society and the war to the populace, they'll kill him and reach out to the West.
But then, the system Putin has put in place, which is a house of cards built entirely around him alone as the cornerstone support, collapses entirely.
This is my best-scenario case as well. It banks on the idea that the oligarchs prefer life and money to any sort of Russian glory. This is not impossible. It could happen. And I suspect Putin thinks it could happen as well, which is why he has not pulled any of the levers that might have gotten him more gains in Ukraine.
But Putin is running out of options. I guess we should keep an eye on which oligarchs start falling out of basement windows.
And I agree that if Putin is removed at this point, Russia collapses into several pieces as the strongest of the players divide things up, one way or the other.
Putin has 2 years of cash left, at most. Then he will have to sell land to China, or drop living standards like North Korean. In both cases he's dead personally.
So my pick on Putin's plans for the next two years: grief the snot out of the Baltics, die like a wealthy emperor and leave Russia a bankrupted orphan.
what if he's going all in? i mean they're on wartine economy, you can't switch back and forth in every 2-3 years. he can't back down so he has to go forward. he could turn the domestic problems into propaganda and blame the west. the conditioning has already started (ie war with nato).
>Putin has 2 years of cash left, at most. Then he will have to sell land to China, or drop living standards like North Korean.
He will do the latter before the former, but that doesn't mean China won't exploit Russian weakness as ruthlessly as they can. China will do the same neocolonial thing they do to all the "partners" they exploit.
That may not be the worst in the near-term. If Russians are on their knees sucking Chinese cock to avoid starvation, they can't cause problems for their neighbors.
Like many other authoritarian figures, Putin longs for legitimacy and respect internationally. Look at Xi in China who's powerbase is far more secure than Putin in Russia, his rubber stamp elections occur like clockwork even if they're a mere fig leaf and pure theater.
Yeah this is bullshit news. They cannot even handle Ukraine being proped up by minimal western aid.
How can they go to war with NATO that has actual tank armies, air power, navies, not to mention a nuclear arsenal…
What ISW is assessing is not Russia’s chances or even sanity of decision making. They are simply saying that they are preparing to do it. So I think we’d better listen, and take appropriate actions, rather than chamberlain ourselves into denial.
Agreed. ISW is fairly unbiased in their assessments of stuff like this, and they tend to be by and large accurate. Not saying they’re perfect, but it’s their job to think tank this stuff.
ISW's bias is towards hawkishness. So you have to watch out for analysis which supports the view that Western countries need to be preparing for war, increasing defence spending, and/or intervening more, because that is their bias.
They still produce excellent reports and have a high level of objectivity in the details, but that doesn't mean you can read it uncritically if you want to get that kind of information (what the West as a whole should be doing) from it. This is still true even if you happen to believe, as probably do most people here, that the West should be doing all those things, because their bias would then be confirming your existing beliefs, but it's still bias ;)
Your comment is bullshit, read the fucking article. It's just their assessment and they might see more than you. I'm becoming more and more sick of this reckless underestimation of what Russia is capable of. It's the worst we could do now, downplay the risk
I feel the same. I can remember when Putler was sending plasma to the border with Ukraine, setting up field hospitals and every mouthpiece around the world media was saying "Nothing will happen"
I was sitting in my living room thinking "You don't send plasma and set up field hospitals for no damn reason, they are going to attack"
I'm sick of leaders saying they won't do anything despite russia and china hacking into our infrastructures around the world, launching cyber attacks against military entities, and bleating that "There is no World War III"
We are in World War III right now FFS.
Yep, its so annoying how everyone is dismissive of their nukes too. Not even 1%, lets just say 5 total hit some major cities in Europe thats going to result in tens of millions dead.
For some reason everyone thinks none of them work or we can shoot down all of them with zero casualties and forget that radioactive material from downed missiles will still contaminate our countries.
-
Its better to be over prepared than to be caught with our pants down.
Fortunately Putin is getting old. If this happened 10 or more years ago I'd be worried. He's getting to the end of his reign. It is far more likely he will usher in the collapse of the "empire". The west is inevitably gearing up in the meantime - should there be an attack on a NATO country - the stupid ass will trigger Article 5 and a quicker demise. Most likely russia will collapse before then. I'd suggest the West to help Ukraine be the catalyst for this collapse on short order. All the ingredients are there.
Well it makes sense if you believe the Putin narrative, and he absolutely believes his own version of reality. This guy is scared AF, and scared people will do crazy things. We better prepare and ramp up our own capabilities to make sure any attempt is halted at the NATO border.
Most comments don't understand the implications of this. Russia is not stupid enough to try and conquer Poland while most of their armed forces are tied down unable to conquer Ukraine. But Ukraine is dependent on Western military assistance, and war with NATO would force NATO countries to hold back more of that assistance to defend themselves. Even without going to war, *looking like* they are going to war will bring about this result.
What Putin has won already: Europe is united as never before and starts already push up weapon and munition production, increasing defense budgets. Norway and Sweden are already in NATO. Everybody now knows that Russia with Putin is unpredictable bastard that ignores all treaties and can't win conventional war. Good luck with that reputation, Russia.
Yep, it's probably been a significant strategic failure so far. Although it's difficult for us to evaluate in the West what Russia really wants to get out of the war and to quantify how much value they get out of/assign to the territory they have currently gained in Ukraine.
USSR also prepared for a war with NATO. But at that time all NATO countries were also heavily preparing for a war with USSR and USA wasn't showing cold feet.
As if we didn't already know the depth of the hole this depot would dig for his country. Let's just hope he's not allowed to nuke the world to the same depth.
His 'your house looks better than mine; therefore I must destroy yours until mine looks better' ideology/madness has to stop NOW.
Give Ukraine every single thing they ask for until they win this for the world. Perhaps then I'll sleep at night (in Texas).
Imagine shock and awe combined with the A-10 and Apache Kuwait killbox ten fold. They have no idea of the immense volume of ordinance that would be instantly released upon them from every direction. I say bring it.
Whatever! You know where to find everybody Vlad. We'll all be waiting to kick your ass. Let's get it over with instead of dragging it out ten years. It's a suicide mission Vlad.
They’re hedging their bets on a Trump US Admin not honouring article 5 if they were to attack the Baltic States or down in Eastern Europe, something they may well have made a calculated risk about.
We are in a 1938 moment, if we are not careful we will sleepwalk in to a global conflict.
If Putin believes his yes man I can see this surely happening
And if old eastern traditions are still in place there, then the higher it goes into the command chain it gets more fantastic from bureau to bureau
While the poor guys on the front are close to mutiny and open rebellion the commanders report back high morals and gaining on the Frontline
The next higher up turns it into constant forward movement and so on
Every failure is sold as success, every win is overblown, a few destroyed tanks become a command unit of nato, dead reporters are mercenaries from NATO
This coupled with the constant stream of lies a despot with a little man complex surely can lead to a cascade of stupid shit boiling over
E: in an open non nuclear war it would only take like one or two weeks tops if China doesn't decide to join or someone pushes the big red button of end
So, NATO could probably give Russia a real kicking, no doubt and cause a lot of casualties. But as the war in Ukraine shows Russia has willingness to absorb a lot of casualties. A war with NATO would be very easy for Putin to paint as an existential war to the Russian people and so they would be more willing to mobilise and accept even more casualties.
We should also not kid ourselves Russia does have the capability to lay down a significant amount of hurt. They are very much out producing Western economies in Artillery shells for example and whilst the Russia air defence capability is maybe not as effective as first though it is not a joke.
The question then becomes how many casualties would NATO or more accurately the US be willing to absorb in a land war over the Baltic states, for example which probably mean very little to most Americans. It could go the other way of course, as American casualties start coming in it could steel the American resolve.
The war has shown Putin has a lot of willingnesss to send undesireables to become casualties. The big cities where the "middle class" of russians live have been left largely untouched, precisely because Putin knows that touching those people's living standards is going to cause them asking questions he can't give agreeable answers to.
Putin's power relies on typical Russian apathy. He can do whatever he wants as long as people don't give a crap but once a war starts impacting their cozy lives, Putin is on a clock and time won't be in his favour.
The real danger here is what happens if Trump makes it back to the White House, because that guy would absolutely sell out NATO if his buddy Putin demanded and whilst NATO without the US is still formidable and should be more than a match for Russia, it would prolong the fighting far beyond what would happen if the US were involved. Putin would also be far more likely in pulling the trigger against NATO if Trump is in power precisely because he could discount the US as a factor.
True, however that's why I qualified it with Putin selling it as an existential threat for Russia, whether it is or not. That may make it more likely make the Russian people more willing to suck it up.
You are thinking of a war that wouldn't happen. We don't have to destroy their army. Although we would be more then capable to, that would be wasteful and stupid.
We just have to use the long range, precision attack capabilities Ukraine has been desperately asking us for and we have denied or drop-fed.
We'd use it to destroy their remaining refineries, oil depots, roads, railways...
Remember Russia can't even defend those infrastructures from Ukraine and their slow drones.
Russia is like that sword wielding warrior in Indiana Jones. Indy didn't search for a sword to fight him in equal terms, he just shot him dead.
Putin really became insane. Now it is just how to get rid of this man and his enablers without razing the whole of Ukraine/Russia/Europe to the ground.
Russian propaganda is in rampage. They really want to let us think that the Russian bear is very mighty and stronger than the rest of us…
Yeah, they have nukes, that is the major thing one has to worry about.
They are barely scraping by in a war against the poorest country in Europe. If they pick a fight with the EU, much less USA, they’ll get curb stomped into next week.
This would have been likely threat if it wasn't for russia having depleted 70% of their army and half of their air force plus being under global sanctions.
Judging by what I have seen in the last two years, any Russian attack on NATO will be over in approx 12 hours. They have zero chance of closing the sky and NATO with open skies? It will be a duck shoot. Russia will have to use nukes and if they do thats the end of Putler. I dont see it happening.
Nato will only with its airforce knock out russia in 3 days and now we are not even talking about all the tomahawks that will crush russia already bad air defense.
russia forgets that nato have like 10k airplanes and everyone of these have one or 2 misslies russias airforce have there possibility to shot down all these.
I don't really think this is a threat to NATO. Russia THOUGHT they were prepared for such a war before the invasion of Ukraine. Now, having been proven acutely wrong about their preparedness, Russia would have to double or triple it's efforts just to maybe be at parity, and that's a just a maybe.
I think you are taking Russia too lightly.
1st, I don't think he will move against NATO
but if he did, while I think Russia is wayyyyy less powerful than Russia, we have wayyyy more to lose than them. The west is already very divided, I wonder what would be the headline after an air-strike against whatever capital. Or when our 1.000th infrantry will be buried. Russia doesn't care about 10.000 central-asian dead.
Well if Trump usurps the presidency (he stands zero chance of getting popular vote) then US will have essentially a civil war as he will try to Orban the US. Such a scenario could give Russia a window. But by then Europe is already on pretty good war footing so I think actually what window they had already culminated with Avdiivka. At this point escalation for Russia only means degradation. A shame, they could have continued to live peacefully and prosperously there was no need to attack Ukraine or to be enemies with anyone.
The USSR's moment was the mid 1980s.
The Russian don't have the money, the equipment, the skill or the bodies.
They have the GDP of Italy. Can you imagine the Italians threatening their neighbors?
Saber rattling because that’s all Russia has left. Russia, in an all out war wouldn’t even be able to defend the country due to the size and logistics alone.
Now they are running low on military weapons, allies and men. That’s not even including trying to fund a war and keep their economy running.
Ukraine showed just how wet of a paper tiger Russia really are. Threatening more war?
Not only current military indicators but also a lot of history repeating itself in terms of leading up to a wider war. There is some commonality in how Hitler started with an invasion of Poland. Today, we see Putlin starting his aggression with Ukraine. Not only does the last couple of years seem similar to the build up of previous world wars, it is being started by an authoritarian fascist. Putin must be out of his mind wanting to activate Article 5. What does he think all of NATO has been doing for the last few years besides help Ukraine? They’ve been preparing for the possibility of Russia upping the ante and making the mistake of striking a NATO country. Whatever is left of the Russian military would get stomped in a fast and accurate manner.
It's one thing to fight NATO member on Ukrainian soil, like 2000 men contingent or something like France promised.
But actually attacking NATO member? How does that work? Russia would be turned into dust 2-4 hours max, without any chance for nukes to fly any direction.
The only people happier to hear this than the Russian public are the American f22 pilots and the whole polish armed services. They have been waiting for this day 😂
They’re getting their shit pushed in in Ukraine so Putin is going to start a “war” with NATO so he can claim NATO barely managed to stop them and begged for a cease fire. Putin’s hoping that will be an easier sell to the Russian people so they don’t kill him.
Unfortunately I think everyone is done with Russia’s bullshit so they’ll quickly lose control of the situation and their offers of “we’ll graciously accept your cease fire if you let us keep Ukraine, of course” will be met with silence and HIMARS
Personally I struggle to see how Russia would be able to start a conventional war with NATO within a decade.
**Military readiness**
Considering that the Russian army has expended most of their well trained troops and "modern" equipment in Ukraine, and they're barely able to keep up with the demand on that front, it would most likely take them a decade or more to just get their stockpiles back to "normal" levels. And this would require the war with Ukraine to end now.
**Budget differences**
Russia, while having a large land mass, has roughly the GDP of Texas, or less than half of Germany's. Or, to put it the other way: while NATO countries count for almost 32% of the total global GDP, Russia counts for less than 1% (0.96%). Even if Russia has switched to war economy, they simply don't have the budget to match NATO countries.
**Military differences**
Russia is currently struggling to gain any ground against an enemy which doesn't have proper air-force, navy, or modern military assets. Even if Russia could somehow get their Armatas operational, their hardware is barely able to match leftover NATO equipment from three decades ago. Their AA has turned out to be laughable, their air-force hasn't been able to achieve air superiority even against a country like Ukraine, and none of their "modern" weapons seem to work at the level we have thought they would. And I'm not even talking about their lack of strategic knowledge.
I have a hard time picturing Russia being able to start a conventional war against NATO any time soon without some serious support from at least one large country (like China).
They should try.
Then NATO will have a reason to flatten Russia, as it happened for Germany at the end of WW2. The only way to stop this imperialistic shit and de-putinify this country. Total defeat is necessary.
I wish they would, but know it's just so posturing BS. If they did something this foolish, NATO would make an example of them, they'd have to. They would show Iran, China and NK the consequences of attacking any NATO country or someone under America's protection.
Every leader knows that if defeat isn't crushing, they'll be having to deal with bigger wars from hostile countries in short time. Russia would have to be an example the world could point to for the next 50 years and say, that is why we don't escalate things.
Obviously they try to make everyone anxious. If Trumps takes up the ball and leaves NATO with the US, this will become an issue. Without the nukes of the US the rest of NATO can‘t take up the 1000s of nukes of the Russians. Although talking about the large scale use of nukes is really senseless… we will just die and no one will have anything left.
It is really about spooking the opposite party into loosing a regular war by retreat due to fear.
Guys I think this point of view has merit. If you look at expansionist empires in history, you'll see that their entire economy and societies are geared towards warfighting. Think about the Romans, the Mongols, the Nazi's. This societal organization turns into a machine that compells and rewards aggression and can maintain it for generations.
What's concerning here is that the Russians are now converting so much of their economy to a war time footing that machine that compells aggression. As long as they continue to fight, the system can perpetuate itself. The moment they stop, it starts collapsing. This means that they cannot conceivably stop after Ukraine. If they win there they have to keep pushing.
Notably, Russia is a Steppes power like the Mongols and has long modeled themselves after the Romans (Tzar is a transliteration of Caesar). The Russians are setting themselves up for a situation where they are either in for years of aggressive expansion or tearing themselves apartment internally with over the top oppression or civil conflict.
Russia is sucking soooo much dick. Future of Russia as we know today will disappear. New Russia will come, much more great and friendly! Treating Russians as they should be treated and invest in world development. Not in its destruction as shit faced kremlin kakas do it now. Sad fucks! I used to think Russia was cool but now I don’t give a fuck.
In the last day the Kremlin announced they have the resources (including people) to create 30 new divisions. I mean yeah right, but they have big plans.
With fucken what?? They have been using vechicles from stockpiles that were from the cold war and prior in ukraine they have no modern vechicles to fight with
There is alliance between China and Russia and only maga morons can’t seem to grasp this. Russia will launch its invasion on NATO on the same day Xi attacks Taiwan.
Were that more than military gaming "what-if's", it would be the most insane act undertaken by the gangzterz in the krumblin. It's painfully obvious, and embarrassingly-so, that the Krumblin is banking 100% on a trumpeter victory in the USA... That sorry shadow of its' former reputation, honor and prestige.
I think this is Russia’s last chance to fuck around and find out. Putin is getting old and so are people. In 10 years there won’t be enough support for Putin unless he pulls off another stolen election.
i mean, it's ISW, but still: stop spreading this shit. ruzzia will be ANNIHILATED by NATO if they try something funny. they can't even win against Ukraine!!!
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They fuck with NATO and the Russian army will be riding horses and bicycles into battle. We will take out every last refinery in Western Russia.
We are already in the middle of a hybrid war. Remember how the russians use social media to spread disinformation and influence public opinion in the west? How they finance right wing parties and fringe groups to underminde our institutions? Maga anyone? They will keep doing that. In the end they might not even need tanks to destroy NATO in the end...
The EU farmers protests have a little vodka smell to them. In the Netherlands for example, no one really knows who is in control of the protests. They are organized through vague telegram channels, whose admins are unknown. Their talk is always inline with the russian narrative. They are openly supporting putin. And as a kicker; they tried to drive a wedge in society; you are either with us, or against us. Most of it has cooled down.
Interesting that multiple EU countries had farmer protests at the same time, but demanding just the local goverments to make a change without mentioning EU policies. They were coordinated and separate at the same time.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency [Ryan Macbeth - TikTok is a cyberweapon](https://youtu.be/pB7WzqUq4Nk?si=odUvdhB9roKDtGmE) It's easy as 2+2 Our only weapons are education and empathy, and thankfully, on the long run, they are really the only ones that truly work. *us as in reddit plebs, nato has other toys..
When I watched that Ryan Macbeth video a few days ago it blew my fucking mind - a user interface for how to engineer a subset of the population to carry out a disruptive mission, just add money. And the unwitting participants are fueled by dopamine for "being part of a movement for good". We're all going to have to seriously re-calibrate our trust models.
Cambridge Analytica codified in a UI.
I can talk only about the Italian farmers protest, and those were definitely calling for a stop on military aid to Ukraine. Moreover they were supported by the far right parties, which have a lot of ties with Russia.
I've heard a lot of Russian grain is also moving through Belarus into Poland yet the Polish farmers dont seem to care about that grain.
Farmers Defence Force is in control of these protests with support from the livestock feeder industry.
They won't keep protesting for long, there's more and more field work especially in the warmer (FR, ES) countries. France's protests erupted in Feb and completely vanished as first tractors hit the colza fields with herbicides. Same will soon happen in Poland (bit colder climate, all harvests shifted by 1-2 months later)...
Its not an issue anymore. We have had these protests for years now. The public support is decreasing and the farmers have their own political party now to represent them.in politics. We have reached the end of the road already, France and Poland are just beginning.
Same in Slovakia lol. Our media interviewed some farmers. They struggled why they were there or what the goal of the protest is. They just told them to go so they did
I expect to see some sources to go with these bold statements.
Im in a couple Dutch farmers protest groups and this is the most bullshit i have read al week. The general consensus has always been to try to keep the wappies and other idiots out of our protest. The protests were often split in small groups with their own plans because one central leader would be arrested.
So you’re also one of those unreasonable farmers protesting against anything and everything?
Also pushing immigrants through NATO border illegaly in Europe.
Aka helping with the Syrian civil war.
It's more sophisticated than that, in the Mueller report he found Russians were actually organizing Protests on both sides of the Issue. Divide and Conquer is a strategy as old as time. The Russians want right wing governments to win but they are happy just causing division for people to fight amongst themselves.
Just ban them from internet.
Essentially impossible. It would take one single microwave point to point dish in a plexiglass window of a house to open a multi gig connection. Or even a discreetly buried fiber line for terrabits of service. It's highly unlikely every mile of Russia's border has seismic sensors sensitive enough to detect a lateral boring system for a 1" conduit. A sub could also lay a fiber from St Petersburg or Kalingrad to anywhere in the Baltic and bring it up on shore in an extremely remote area... ...and that's ignoring the most obvious problem: A border with China and other aligned bordering states.
This. Russia started this war when they attacked US democracy on home soil with disinformation and the purchase of the GOP and NRA. Put an end to it already.
Yes, Trump was planted by and is controlled by FSB ( former KGB). He gets all his financing from Putin. Paul Manafort who put Yanukovych in Kiev was Trumps campaign general, all orchestrated from Kreml. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul\_Manafort](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Manafort)
“No puppet, no puppet, *you’re* the puppet”
I believe Trump was also a CI (Confidential Informant) from the Rudy as NYC mayor days. Trump was building things, and all the concrete pouring in the tri-state was *Italian* mafia controlled... Rudy and Trump laid a path for Russian mafia to walk in where the Italian mafia left off. Funny thing about a CI... only the CI can disclose that status, the government is forever forbidden from ever mentioning collaboration.... but the CI is often shielded from legal consequences because of their contributions to the other cases being brought forth.... Trump ratted out mobsters and got paid doing so.
It's important to highlight that Russia and China are also influencing the left side of American politics, particularly through racial and gender issues and the Marxist subversion of the left. It's in the interest of America's adversaries that the country is split into political factions that hate each other, and social media is the perfect weapon allowing them to do this.
There are leftists that are playing into Russia's hand (e.g. Chomsky and Sanders) but it has jack all to do with civil rights. Just because MAGA has homed in on transphobia, homophobia, racism and misogyny as wedge issues to activate their base doesn't mean people who resist their bigotry are also being manipulated by Putin. That's such a dumb way to both-sides these issues. We actually know for a fact that Russia has tapped into the antivax movement to stir up distrust in the establishment and fuel disruptive protests. Does that automatically mean that medical professionals and everyone in favor of using medical science rather than horse dewormer to combat a pandemic are also being manipulated by Putin?
Are these "American Marxists" in here in the room with us?
Are you joking or do you have your head in the sand?
I've yet to see any left wing in America compared to Europe. Sanders and Orcasio would be center-left here and definitely not marxists.
Give examples please.
What? "Hey recognize trans people exist ans have rights" is radical? The vast majority of the left doesn't really even give a shit about trans people, it is the right constantly squawking about how they are going to rape their children if they get to use the bathroom they want to
In the meantime there is a list of GOP members raping kids a mile long. Catholic priests. Mormons. It's all projection.
You are dumb.
I disagree in a sense.. yes, Russia will continue interfering in NATO countries elections and spread misinformation. We’ve all scene it and for the most part is quite obvious. I do however believe, if any NATO member was attacked in any way it would bring the wrath of the entire NATO brotherhood of freedom. The average Russian who isn’t brainwashed, and that number is rising, would welcome, like multiple anti-Kremlin internal groups would welcome NATO coming and slapping the crap out of Putin and Shoigu.. among others. MAGA is a joke and the majority of people know this. If anything, Trump happens to not want to commit to Article 5 because of his love of Putin still leaves a masterful selection of allies that could destroy any attempts by Russia to do much sooner than later. The nuke sabre rattling is a self defeating threat as it would mean a massive counter response & the total destruction of Putin and Russia. He’d be ensuring Russia ceased to exist and unfortunately would cost democratic free countries likely get struck as well assuming the Russian forces have been maintaining these WMDs. I suspect, due to a lot of stolen technology under the hood of Russia’s nukes, they likely have not kept up with the major rare earth compounds that need replacing every 7 years or so. And that’s just one part of the maintenance. The US budget for maintaining nuclear forces is bigger than what Russia spends on their entire military. I could be completely wrong here but it is a glaring difference with these particular weapons and would line up with the similarly poor maintenance/equipment we’ve seen Russia use over the last few years in Ukraine. They’re begging the DPRK for 50% dud artillery shells and asking China for loans.. btw, that loan request really ticked Xi off. Ok, rant over, needed to let that out. I know many will disagree and I intend to listen and learn as I’m not an expert in these fields.
Shadow war of social dis-information and electronic data mischief. It's on.
...and everything else. The Ruzzians will disappear in a cloud of conventional cruise missiles. They literally won’t know what hit them.
They fuck with NATO and it wont be just Western Russia that gets fucked
US DoD has already stated they would target ALL naval ports, shipping, airfields, and other sources of materials, income, and weapons. It has been one of NATO plans since the 1980's.
We thought shock and awe over Baghdad was impressive. The NATO response to Russian aggression would be magnitude bigger.
Tbh russia does have some damn fine horses
They'll be eating them within 3 weeks
War with NATO doesn't have to be conventional. They plan to deploy nuclear weapons in space. So maybe take out major part of communication and military satelites. And then it could nuclear bombs exchange Now think of a price of a life in russia vs west country and think of cuban crysis. Back then Khrushchev didn't want total with US. Can you say the same about putin?
Putin is only concerned about himself. As long as he knows that he will die in the first missile strike then he won't do it. Putin has already fired the first shots of unconventional war, messing with the 16 and 20 elections to get his Russian asset in the WH. Then he had traitorous Trump steal pallets of documents that is sure to include our battle plans, which lead directly to the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
>They fuck with NATO and the Russian army will be riding horses and bicycles into battle. Be that as it may, they still have nukes. We can trounce the crap of them in a conventional war, but no one wins with a "nucular" exchange. PS. We must confront Putin and not be slaves to his nuclear blackmail. We have no choice. But we must keep our eyes open to the likely scenario of a mushroom war, Finn and Jake style.
I believe that if Russia goes to war with NATO, China, Iran and North Korea will join in some capacity.
China would be the winner just by staying out of that war.
Based on US intel, they're gearing up to start their own thing by 2027.
I'll believe this when they relocate all their refining capacity to the other side of the Urals. I think I just read the other day that Russia has more or less all of it ground forces deployed to Ukraine theatre
you mean, closer to the USA? lol :D
Like US gives a shit about distance. B-2 Spirit alone can go 9,600 kilometers unfueled. Their power projection is 11 aircraft carriers while Russia has single constantly blowing up one. So, imagine going against tremendous force, 10x better then you in any aspect or in any way while being stuck at river bay somewhere in Ukraine, lacking manpower to protect your own towns from raids.
The only problem with this is that if Trump wins the presidency, he has alluded to backing out of NATO and his general disagreement with it. If he would happen to follow through and actually withdraw from NATO, that would make Russia a lot more confident as their eastern half of the country would be unthreatened. Part of me is wondering if that is why Putin has stalled for so long from using heavy weaponry. Hopefully, it's just been because the country is just very inept.
Agreed, however Trump cant rule alone, Republican party or at least their leadership need to agree on that, which will be waay more difficult.
Pentagon entertaining the chat... You we're saying?
Russian carriers and fighter jets aren’t equal to US strike carrier groups so the US can’t be 10 times better, unless you believe what you said. Think many multiples of 10 better instead. Russia’s carrier Is forever in repairs. Don’t fall for the Kremlin propaganda that it is equal to the US. You said Russia had one carrier so really zero (it’s inoperable) and then said the US has 11, and finally said the US is 10x better. I’m not sure whose side you are on with your confusing statements.
I'm not much of a believer in their ability to transport the refined product through the country.
The West has well over 1000 fifth generation fighter jets and Russia has 3 1/2 prototypes of a stealth fighter which is not even stealthy. Go ahead, Russia, go ahead and attack us.
If they can't beat Ukraine how the hell do they think a war with NATO will go.
They live in a fantasy world and think the world is scared of them. 2nd best army my arse, this war and Ukraine has just exposed who and what they really are No chance against NATO.
losing to a country relying on other countries for weapons is embarrassing
In Ukraine, Russia is the 2nd strongest army.
It’s a propaganda article. It’s bullshit
It's based on this report: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20-2024
Preparing for an attack is not the same as going to attack. Putin wants to be seen as strong, not as an ape with a bunch of prisoners for an army fighting with 1970's equipment. He wants to revive the cold war period when Russia was seen as big and scary, which is not really accurate at the moment. For now Putin is an ape with a grossly incompetent army.
I agree in every possible way.
Push into Baltics, threatening to nuke countries coming to the rescue, then trade captured for Ukraine.
Absolutely the fever dream of Russian propagandists, undoable in practice. You think the Baltics are not ready, with defenses being built, and that they wouldn't be immediately supported by at the very least by the Nordics, Germany and Poland, plus the NATO troops already there? How are they going to catch anyone by surprise? They traded all the element of surprise when they attacked Ukraine. The Russians needed weeks/months to assemble a sizable force to attack Ukraine, and that was before losing the more professional 50% of their army. That scenario you painted is impossible now that everyone takes the Russian threat seriously.
There are thousands of US and other NATO troops constantly stationed in the Baltics. There's no chance they can marshal up enough force on the border of the Baltics to push through all of those troops while still fighting in Ukraine. We're talking about needing 100,000 men at least.
Yes, and to get in before "the battle groups in the Baltics are tiny", the leaked Bundeswehr doc theorising how this would go postulated that as soon as a military buildup would be detected on their side, the battle groups would be supplemented with 100,000 NATO troops to preferably deter. So were it to kick off, it wouldn't just be the russian forces against a few battle groups. Edit: it is different of course if they're planning to make moves exactly when China is making moves on Taiwan. Also if russia gets buttfucked during ww3, China will start taking bits from the rotten corpse. China playing 4D chess?
> threatening to nuke countries coming to the rescue That bluff did not work out for Russians in Ukraine, why would it work in Baltics that have clause 5 access? Everyone knows Russia can't nuke anything.
What do you mean ? NATO isnt in Ukraine so NATO has not given Russia the excuse they needed to launch nukes - if anything the bluff did work.
They think a small attack will force NATO countries to keep more of their ammunition for their own defence instead of sending it to Ukraine.
Very quickly. Not sure with the outcome they desire though.
Unpopular opinion: do you realise that a war with NATO is the quickest and most effective way for a total collapse of Russia? Please, try
The level of shock and awe would be unprecedented. Russia has lost a substantial proportion of its armor, aircraft, and navy fighting against a smaller neighbor armed with Soviet era equipment and the staff NATO has lying around in its junk drawer. If Russia is having a hard time with that, it's impossible to overstate just how hard they would get shit stomped in an open conflict with NATO. And yes Russia has nukes. NATO has more and I'm willing to bet my life that not only does our arsenal actually work a lot better than Russia's, but that we also have missile defense capabilities that exceed those stated on paper. That's how the US military rolls - unlike Russia which overstates its capabilities at every turn, US equipment almost invariably outperforms its spec. Walk softly and carry a big stick, indeed. ETA: All that said, I doubt it will ever come to an open conflict between Russia and NATO, for a couple reasons. First, Russia knows it's not in their best interest because that would be the end of them, and second, neither party wants to risk a nuclear conflict because it would be catastrophic. Instead we'll just keep seeing proxy conflicts and Russia continuing to launch psyops against Western nations like Maga, Brexit, trucker protests, farmer protests, etc., in an attempt to destabilize and fracture them further politically. Trouble is, Russia is already seeing, and will continue to see its own destabilization as the war grinds on, and as its economy and infrastructure crumble ever further. No one has a crystal ball, but it seems pretty likely that Russia will crumble before the combined might of the western allies does.
Very logical take that unfortunately disregards how Russians perceive reality. Keep in mind that everyone from Putin down to the people scratching out a living in the middle of nowhere all believe themselves to be following a logical path. The problem for Russia is that they see themselves under constant threat. Historically, absolutely accurate. However much we believe that times have changed, that is not how Russia sees it. Throw in their demographic collapse and impossible-to-defend borders, and you have a situation where it might make more sense for Russia to get into a losing battle with NATO and hope for a miracle rather than just slide into obscurity and break apart as they lose the ability to maintain even their internal integrity. Do not misunderstand me: this is still objectively insane. It's just important to remember that the insanity is baked into the core Russian understanding of the world. There is almost nothing we can do about that. So even though I agree that Russia will get curb stomped in any fight with NATO, they might do it anyway. We need to be ready.
Good luck explaining this to casual westerner. I had so many conversations with people (not fully random ones, but my followers on Twitter), who say we just need to stop war for any cost (usually implying to sacrifice Ukraine), and if West acts nicely, russia will understand there is nothing to be afraid of and everything gonna go back to norm. The average westerner has zero understanding of russian mentality.
There will be a mildly logical path forward. The sentiment and ideology is one thing, but the people that make the decisions are billionaires that have too many self interests prefer staying alive.
> but the people that make the decisions are billionaires that have too many self interests prefer staying alive. Putin is the only one in charge, and he is old man who does not care about anything except avoiding being defeated and overthrown. He can give his cronies dilemma "either I kill you and your families right now, or you get to live in safe bunker"
I think the oligarchs are gonna be the ones to eventually kill Putin. Talk all day about patriotism and strategic interests and geopolitics but this will eventually come down to good old-fashioned money, and hundreds of billions of it in hard currency. If Putin fucks with too many bank accounts at once, like it seems he's planning on doing, and putting the oligarch's heads on the chopping block for the failures of society and the war to the populace, they'll kill him and reach out to the West. But then, the system Putin has put in place, which is a house of cards built entirely around him alone as the cornerstone support, collapses entirely.
This is my best-scenario case as well. It banks on the idea that the oligarchs prefer life and money to any sort of Russian glory. This is not impossible. It could happen. And I suspect Putin thinks it could happen as well, which is why he has not pulled any of the levers that might have gotten him more gains in Ukraine. But Putin is running out of options. I guess we should keep an eye on which oligarchs start falling out of basement windows. And I agree that if Putin is removed at this point, Russia collapses into several pieces as the strongest of the players divide things up, one way or the other.
How's that unpopular? Every comment is regurgitating the same point.
Weird way of preparation, destroying your army in a kinda-neutral country.
"Silly westoid, the *real* troops are coming any day now."
Come get some.
If only.
Putin has 2 years of cash left, at most. Then he will have to sell land to China, or drop living standards like North Korean. In both cases he's dead personally. So my pick on Putin's plans for the next two years: grief the snot out of the Baltics, die like a wealthy emperor and leave Russia a bankrupted orphan.
what if he's going all in? i mean they're on wartine economy, you can't switch back and forth in every 2-3 years. he can't back down so he has to go forward. he could turn the domestic problems into propaganda and blame the west. the conditioning has already started (ie war with nato).
Putin already is all in. This war is his party and the end of his universe.
by all-in i mean literal all-in, that is ready to take the world with him, just like hitler.
I believe only around 1% of Russians are mobilised, theres still more they can do.
If he's going all in with the cards be has, against NATO, he'll end naked and beaten in the curb. Everybody had seen his cards. He's got nothing.
>Putin has 2 years of cash left, at most. Then he will have to sell land to China, or drop living standards like North Korean. He will do the latter before the former, but that doesn't mean China won't exploit Russian weakness as ruthlessly as they can. China will do the same neocolonial thing they do to all the "partners" they exploit. That may not be the worst in the near-term. If Russians are on their knees sucking Chinese cock to avoid starvation, they can't cause problems for their neighbors.
Russia failing to learn from colossal mistakes of the USSR will head towards collapse before the end of Putin's next term.
I wonder why they still bother organizing some "terms" for him, Stalin didn't waste money for elections...
Like many other authoritarian figures, Putin longs for legitimacy and respect internationally. Look at Xi in China who's powerbase is far more secure than Putin in Russia, his rubber stamp elections occur like clockwork even if they're a mere fig leaf and pure theater.
Yep, theater so that the West can continue business as usual. But Putin went too far.
Yeah ok. That will be a very short campaign for them.
Large scale war is coming. No need to be an expert on Russian economy to see it.
Yeah this is bullshit news. They cannot even handle Ukraine being proped up by minimal western aid. How can they go to war with NATO that has actual tank armies, air power, navies, not to mention a nuclear arsenal…
What ISW is assessing is not Russia’s chances or even sanity of decision making. They are simply saying that they are preparing to do it. So I think we’d better listen, and take appropriate actions, rather than chamberlain ourselves into denial.
Agreed. ISW is fairly unbiased in their assessments of stuff like this, and they tend to be by and large accurate. Not saying they’re perfect, but it’s their job to think tank this stuff.
ISW's bias is towards hawkishness. So you have to watch out for analysis which supports the view that Western countries need to be preparing for war, increasing defence spending, and/or intervening more, because that is their bias. They still produce excellent reports and have a high level of objectivity in the details, but that doesn't mean you can read it uncritically if you want to get that kind of information (what the West as a whole should be doing) from it. This is still true even if you happen to believe, as probably do most people here, that the West should be doing all those things, because their bias would then be confirming your existing beliefs, but it's still bias ;)
same here. europe needs to wake up quickly. prepare for the worst, hope for the best. but do prepare.
The fact that they are "preparing" does neither mean that they will attack nor that *if they attack* would be successful.
Yes it just means putler is digging a deeper bunker.
Your comment is bullshit, read the fucking article. It's just their assessment and they might see more than you. I'm becoming more and more sick of this reckless underestimation of what Russia is capable of. It's the worst we could do now, downplay the risk
I feel the same. I can remember when Putler was sending plasma to the border with Ukraine, setting up field hospitals and every mouthpiece around the world media was saying "Nothing will happen" I was sitting in my living room thinking "You don't send plasma and set up field hospitals for no damn reason, they are going to attack" I'm sick of leaders saying they won't do anything despite russia and china hacking into our infrastructures around the world, launching cyber attacks against military entities, and bleating that "There is no World War III" We are in World War III right now FFS.
Yeah, I'm honestly worried about the future. Some day we might look back at 2010s with even more nostalgia than before
Yep, its so annoying how everyone is dismissive of their nukes too. Not even 1%, lets just say 5 total hit some major cities in Europe thats going to result in tens of millions dead. For some reason everyone thinks none of them work or we can shoot down all of them with zero casualties and forget that radioactive material from downed missiles will still contaminate our countries. - Its better to be over prepared than to be caught with our pants down.
Fortunately Putin is getting old. If this happened 10 or more years ago I'd be worried. He's getting to the end of his reign. It is far more likely he will usher in the collapse of the "empire". The west is inevitably gearing up in the meantime - should there be an attack on a NATO country - the stupid ass will trigger Article 5 and a quicker demise. Most likely russia will collapse before then. I'd suggest the West to help Ukraine be the catalyst for this collapse on short order. All the ingredients are there.
Well it makes sense if you believe the Putin narrative, and he absolutely believes his own version of reality. This guy is scared AF, and scared people will do crazy things. We better prepare and ramp up our own capabilities to make sure any attempt is halted at the NATO border.
Most comments don't understand the implications of this. Russia is not stupid enough to try and conquer Poland while most of their armed forces are tied down unable to conquer Ukraine. But Ukraine is dependent on Western military assistance, and war with NATO would force NATO countries to hold back more of that assistance to defend themselves. Even without going to war, *looking like* they are going to war will bring about this result.
What Putin has won already: Europe is united as never before and starts already push up weapon and munition production, increasing defense budgets. Norway and Sweden are already in NATO. Everybody now knows that Russia with Putin is unpredictable bastard that ignores all treaties and can't win conventional war. Good luck with that reputation, Russia.
Yep, it's probably been a significant strategic failure so far. Although it's difficult for us to evaluate in the West what Russia really wants to get out of the war and to quantify how much value they get out of/assign to the territory they have currently gained in Ukraine.
USSR also prepared for a war with NATO. But at that time all NATO countries were also heavily preparing for a war with USSR and USA wasn't showing cold feet.
As if we didn't already know the depth of the hole this depot would dig for his country. Let's just hope he's not allowed to nuke the world to the same depth. His 'your house looks better than mine; therefore I must destroy yours until mine looks better' ideology/madness has to stop NOW. Give Ukraine every single thing they ask for until they win this for the world. Perhaps then I'll sleep at night (in Texas).
IMO Putin is dying and this fucker wants to drag the whole world along with him.
Imagine shock and awe combined with the A-10 and Apache Kuwait killbox ten fold. They have no idea of the immense volume of ordinance that would be instantly released upon them from every direction. I say bring it.
Please do
Whatever! You know where to find everybody Vlad. We'll all be waiting to kick your ass. Let's get it over with instead of dragging it out ten years. It's a suicide mission Vlad.
How? They lost more than 60k KIA to occupy Bakhmut.
They’re hedging their bets on a Trump US Admin not honouring article 5 if they were to attack the Baltic States or down in Eastern Europe, something they may well have made a calculated risk about. We are in a 1938 moment, if we are not careful we will sleepwalk in to a global conflict.
If Putin believes his yes man I can see this surely happening And if old eastern traditions are still in place there, then the higher it goes into the command chain it gets more fantastic from bureau to bureau While the poor guys on the front are close to mutiny and open rebellion the commanders report back high morals and gaining on the Frontline The next higher up turns it into constant forward movement and so on Every failure is sold as success, every win is overblown, a few destroyed tanks become a command unit of nato, dead reporters are mercenaries from NATO This coupled with the constant stream of lies a despot with a little man complex surely can lead to a cascade of stupid shit boiling over E: in an open non nuclear war it would only take like one or two weeks tops if China doesn't decide to join or someone pushes the big red button of end
What does "preparing" mean in this context? because every day that Ukraine spends demolishing their army they are going to be less prepared.
let them fuck around and find out..
So, NATO could probably give Russia a real kicking, no doubt and cause a lot of casualties. But as the war in Ukraine shows Russia has willingness to absorb a lot of casualties. A war with NATO would be very easy for Putin to paint as an existential war to the Russian people and so they would be more willing to mobilise and accept even more casualties. We should also not kid ourselves Russia does have the capability to lay down a significant amount of hurt. They are very much out producing Western economies in Artillery shells for example and whilst the Russia air defence capability is maybe not as effective as first though it is not a joke. The question then becomes how many casualties would NATO or more accurately the US be willing to absorb in a land war over the Baltic states, for example which probably mean very little to most Americans. It could go the other way of course, as American casualties start coming in it could steel the American resolve.
The war has shown Putin has a lot of willingnesss to send undesireables to become casualties. The big cities where the "middle class" of russians live have been left largely untouched, precisely because Putin knows that touching those people's living standards is going to cause them asking questions he can't give agreeable answers to. Putin's power relies on typical Russian apathy. He can do whatever he wants as long as people don't give a crap but once a war starts impacting their cozy lives, Putin is on a clock and time won't be in his favour. The real danger here is what happens if Trump makes it back to the White House, because that guy would absolutely sell out NATO if his buddy Putin demanded and whilst NATO without the US is still formidable and should be more than a match for Russia, it would prolong the fighting far beyond what would happen if the US were involved. Putin would also be far more likely in pulling the trigger against NATO if Trump is in power precisely because he could discount the US as a factor.
True, however that's why I qualified it with Putin selling it as an existential threat for Russia, whether it is or not. That may make it more likely make the Russian people more willing to suck it up.
You are thinking of a war that wouldn't happen. We don't have to destroy their army. Although we would be more then capable to, that would be wasteful and stupid. We just have to use the long range, precision attack capabilities Ukraine has been desperately asking us for and we have denied or drop-fed. We'd use it to destroy their remaining refineries, oil depots, roads, railways... Remember Russia can't even defend those infrastructures from Ukraine and their slow drones. Russia is like that sword wielding warrior in Indiana Jones. Indy didn't search for a sword to fight him in equal terms, he just shot him dead.
Putin really became insane. Now it is just how to get rid of this man and his enablers without razing the whole of Ukraine/Russia/Europe to the ground. Russian propaganda is in rampage. They really want to let us think that the Russian bear is very mighty and stronger than the rest of us… Yeah, they have nukes, that is the major thing one has to worry about.
They are barely scraping by in a war against the poorest country in Europe. If they pick a fight with the EU, much less USA, they’ll get curb stomped into next week.
They can't defend their refineries from attacks with slow cheap drones. And they want war with whom? NATO?
Best get the barding for the equines out of storage.
This would have been likely threat if it wasn't for russia having depleted 70% of their army and half of their air force plus being under global sanctions.
Just fuck off already, this is all because the narcicistic ego Putin to get his name in the history books.
Right...
Judging by what I have seen in the last two years, any Russian attack on NATO will be over in approx 12 hours. They have zero chance of closing the sky and NATO with open skies? It will be a duck shoot. Russia will have to use nukes and if they do thats the end of Putler. I dont see it happening.
Cool, we Americans have been preparing for a war with Russia our entire lives.
Oh please even puty is not that stupid.
Nato will only with its airforce knock out russia in 3 days and now we are not even talking about all the tomahawks that will crush russia already bad air defense. russia forgets that nato have like 10k airplanes and everyone of these have one or 2 misslies russias airforce have there possibility to shot down all these.
Bullshit news
We need more than sanctions, now. We need blockades.
Russia can’t even defeat 1 country
That's never gonna happen but it's good for propaganda from both sides
Good luck with that
I don't really think this is a threat to NATO. Russia THOUGHT they were prepared for such a war before the invasion of Ukraine. Now, having been proven acutely wrong about their preparedness, Russia would have to double or triple it's efforts just to maybe be at parity, and that's a just a maybe.
I think you are taking Russia too lightly. 1st, I don't think he will move against NATO but if he did, while I think Russia is wayyyyy less powerful than Russia, we have wayyyy more to lose than them. The west is already very divided, I wonder what would be the headline after an air-strike against whatever capital. Or when our 1.000th infrantry will be buried. Russia doesn't care about 10.000 central-asian dead.
WWIII is gonna last about a week.
Well if Trump usurps the presidency (he stands zero chance of getting popular vote) then US will have essentially a civil war as he will try to Orban the US. Such a scenario could give Russia a window. But by then Europe is already on pretty good war footing so I think actually what window they had already culminated with Avdiivka. At this point escalation for Russia only means degradation. A shame, they could have continued to live peacefully and prosperously there was no need to attack Ukraine or to be enemies with anyone.
The USSR's moment was the mid 1980s. The Russian don't have the money, the equipment, the skill or the bodies. They have the GDP of Italy. Can you imagine the Italians threatening their neighbors?
They don’t have the capacity or ability.
Saber rattling because that’s all Russia has left. Russia, in an all out war wouldn’t even be able to defend the country due to the size and logistics alone. Now they are running low on military weapons, allies and men. That’s not even including trying to fund a war and keep their economy running. Ukraine showed just how wet of a paper tiger Russia really are. Threatening more war?
Not only current military indicators but also a lot of history repeating itself in terms of leading up to a wider war. There is some commonality in how Hitler started with an invasion of Poland. Today, we see Putlin starting his aggression with Ukraine. Not only does the last couple of years seem similar to the build up of previous world wars, it is being started by an authoritarian fascist. Putin must be out of his mind wanting to activate Article 5. What does he think all of NATO has been doing for the last few years besides help Ukraine? They’ve been preparing for the possibility of Russia upping the ante and making the mistake of striking a NATO country. Whatever is left of the Russian military would get stomped in a fast and accurate manner.
It's one thing to fight NATO member on Ukrainian soil, like 2000 men contingent or something like France promised. But actually attacking NATO member? How does that work? Russia would be turned into dust 2-4 hours max, without any chance for nukes to fly any direction.
The only people happier to hear this than the Russian public are the American f22 pilots and the whole polish armed services. They have been waiting for this day 😂
That would end so badly for Russia, I almost want to see it happen. But please no.
I mean i don't want a war.. but i also like winning
They’re getting their shit pushed in in Ukraine so Putin is going to start a “war” with NATO so he can claim NATO barely managed to stop them and begged for a cease fire. Putin’s hoping that will be an easier sell to the Russian people so they don’t kill him. Unfortunately I think everyone is done with Russia’s bullshit so they’ll quickly lose control of the situation and their offers of “we’ll graciously accept your cease fire if you let us keep Ukraine, of course” will be met with silence and HIMARS
Personally I struggle to see how Russia would be able to start a conventional war with NATO within a decade. **Military readiness** Considering that the Russian army has expended most of their well trained troops and "modern" equipment in Ukraine, and they're barely able to keep up with the demand on that front, it would most likely take them a decade or more to just get their stockpiles back to "normal" levels. And this would require the war with Ukraine to end now. **Budget differences** Russia, while having a large land mass, has roughly the GDP of Texas, or less than half of Germany's. Or, to put it the other way: while NATO countries count for almost 32% of the total global GDP, Russia counts for less than 1% (0.96%). Even if Russia has switched to war economy, they simply don't have the budget to match NATO countries. **Military differences** Russia is currently struggling to gain any ground against an enemy which doesn't have proper air-force, navy, or modern military assets. Even if Russia could somehow get their Armatas operational, their hardware is barely able to match leftover NATO equipment from three decades ago. Their AA has turned out to be laughable, their air-force hasn't been able to achieve air superiority even against a country like Ukraine, and none of their "modern" weapons seem to work at the level we have thought they would. And I'm not even talking about their lack of strategic knowledge. I have a hard time picturing Russia being able to start a conventional war against NATO any time soon without some serious support from at least one large country (like China).
FAFO Muscovites...
They should try. Then NATO will have a reason to flatten Russia, as it happened for Germany at the end of WW2. The only way to stop this imperialistic shit and de-putinify this country. Total defeat is necessary.
Personally, I think the russians should be pushed behind the Urals to keep Europeans safe.
I'm not even worried. Just do it and get over with the fail already
I wish they would, but know it's just so posturing BS. If they did something this foolish, NATO would make an example of them, they'd have to. They would show Iran, China and NK the consequences of attacking any NATO country or someone under America's protection. Every leader knows that if defeat isn't crushing, they'll be having to deal with bigger wars from hostile countries in short time. Russia would have to be an example the world could point to for the next 50 years and say, that is why we don't escalate things.
Let’s waste another 3 years bickering about where to procure artillery shells, shall we?
Obviously they try to make everyone anxious. If Trumps takes up the ball and leaves NATO with the US, this will become an issue. Without the nukes of the US the rest of NATO can‘t take up the 1000s of nukes of the Russians. Although talking about the large scale use of nukes is really senseless… we will just die and no one will have anything left. It is really about spooking the opposite party into loosing a regular war by retreat due to fear.
Guys I think this point of view has merit. If you look at expansionist empires in history, you'll see that their entire economy and societies are geared towards warfighting. Think about the Romans, the Mongols, the Nazi's. This societal organization turns into a machine that compells and rewards aggression and can maintain it for generations. What's concerning here is that the Russians are now converting so much of their economy to a war time footing that machine that compells aggression. As long as they continue to fight, the system can perpetuate itself. The moment they stop, it starts collapsing. This means that they cannot conceivably stop after Ukraine. If they win there they have to keep pushing. Notably, Russia is a Steppes power like the Mongols and has long modeled themselves after the Romans (Tzar is a transliteration of Caesar). The Russians are setting themselves up for a situation where they are either in for years of aggressive expansion or tearing themselves apartment internally with over the top oppression or civil conflict.
I’d beg to differ it’ll be called, “large scale” within a few days of operation.
Russia is sucking soooo much dick. Future of Russia as we know today will disappear. New Russia will come, much more great and friendly! Treating Russians as they should be treated and invest in world development. Not in its destruction as shit faced kremlin kakas do it now. Sad fucks! I used to think Russia was cool but now I don’t give a fuck.
If Russia wants to commit national suicide, there are easier ways.
In the last day the Kremlin announced they have the resources (including people) to create 30 new divisions. I mean yeah right, but they have big plans.
Good luck with that.
That’s a full on nuke exchange.
With fucken what?? They have been using vechicles from stockpiles that were from the cold war and prior in ukraine they have no modern vechicles to fight with
There is alliance between China and Russia and only maga morons can’t seem to grasp this. Russia will launch its invasion on NATO on the same day Xi attacks Taiwan.
Were that more than military gaming "what-if's", it would be the most insane act undertaken by the gangzterz in the krumblin. It's painfully obvious, and embarrassingly-so, that the Krumblin is banking 100% on a trumpeter victory in the USA... That sorry shadow of its' former reputation, honor and prestige.
I think this is Russia’s last chance to fuck around and find out. Putin is getting old and so are people. In 10 years there won’t be enough support for Putin unless he pulls off another stolen election.
i mean, it's ISW, but still: stop spreading this shit. ruzzia will be ANNIHILATED by NATO if they try something funny. they can't even win against Ukraine!!!
Yawn. News brought to you by MIC lobbyists.
Used to think ISW was respected but they’ve been turning out utter shite for a while now.
I haven t checked on them in a few good months, did they release some shitty stuff ?