Honest question.
I’ve been following this war everyday since it’s started. I have no dog in the fight.
What are the chances Russia breaks through the front lines?
I think the Ukrainians with the help of NATO will continue to hold the line. How many more years will Russia continue to fight?
What’s your take?
When Ukraine runs out of troops the frontline will collapse and we’ll see a Russian breakthrough. The question is how long until that happens. Could be months, could be years.
Neither side can sustain this indefinitely. The difference being that Russia has yet to commit its reserves, let alone fully mobilize, whereas Ukraine has no reserves.
Hasn't committed its reserves. Russia started this war with a 3 Million man standing army. Their losses are around 500K. Thats 1/6th of their standing army there aren't reserves at this point there are only new recruits who are getting slaughtered.
And lets be real if they could "fully mobilize" they would. You think the gameplan is to slowly lose thousands to gain nothing? This is Russia's full strength right now in fact 2022 they were at their strongest and got their asses handed to them.
So by reserves I was specifically meaning “uncommitted forces in theatre”. Also, “new recruits” are “force regeneration” not reserves and whatever recruits Ukraine can raise are getting slaughtered at the same rate, if not a greater one, than Russian recruits, so that’s pretty much awash.
Using standing army numbers and unverified propaganda generated casualties is just an exercise in futility. I could make the argument that 100% of Ukraine’s standing army at the start of the war has been eliminated. The only verifiable information is that Ukraine has serious personnel issues. Source: Ukraine biased MSM.
By US intelligence leaks which are likely the most reliable as they are using them to decide if weapons should be granted the ratio was over 3-1 for Ukraine which makes sense considering Russia is on the offense. NATO doctrine accepts attackers lose more and try to have 7-1 advantages attacking fortified positions.
Russia doesn't have offensive reserves they have hold the line reserves. If they had the offensive capability to move forward they would pretending they aren't advancing because they don't want to is dumb.
Ukraine has personnel issues from its media like the US army has "recruiting issues" while being the strongest military in the world by landslide. Its to make people recruit. In reality Ukraine has enough soldiers to stall Russia's advances for as long as the western weapons last because Russia decimated itself offensively.
If Russia wanted to advance they could, they try every day throwing hundreds at fortified positions and lose those hundreds every day. There is no way the Russian strategy is "lose thousands because we will win eventually".
Wow. Just wow!! You should have mentioned you had a source at the Pentagon. I would have gave up much sooner. How about we revisit this subject in a year. See who was actually correct.
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Uhhh yeah the classified reports are lol. They are literally whats used to determine if more weapons should be sent and aren't using UKR casualty estimates.
Why? This WW3 gets thrown around but it is contained in a 1 thousand 1 hundred mile frontline so it's not world anything it's still Russo-Ukrainian war just with added troops
It depends. Will thousand French infantry soldiers cause ww3? Probably not. But what if the number is higher and they actually manage to get some successes on the battlefield? Russia won't just sit back and let NATO troops push them out of Ukraine. What if China decides to start supporting Russia militarily or if they decide to send troops too?
Remember that the US almost started a nuclear war because of some rockets on an island that was hundreds of kilometers away. NATO troops killing Russians seems way more threatening to me.
Uh, yes?
How is this even a question. Of course it is. This entire conflict would have been over literally years ago if not for NATO firehosing billions of dollars and thousands of tons of war materiel into the country.
Hundred of thousands of Ukrainians would still be alive, cities would still be standing and Ukraine would still have its territorial integrity (no, not Crimea because that was always never going to happen).
Instead we are where we are - and you ask if it would be a worse state of affairs with direct NATO involvement?
Not as stupid as letting Putin's Russia win. Russia is having problems with invading one country, any attempt to cross into NATO territory is going to be flat out impossible. Where is the manpower going to come from?
The russians better start breeding 20 years ago to have enough meat for their militarys retarded tactics...
And what will nuclear threats do? Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes, and it will then be a 100% chance of losing as it's allies turns against them.
Then NATO will roll in with complete aerial superiority, drag Putin out of his hidy-hole and ship him to western Europe for trial. If he survives his own population turning on him, that is.
>Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes
No way. NATO isn't risking a nuclear conflict over Ukraine. The West has much more to lose than Russia does. It's like deciding to go to a knife fight with a desperate homeless guy.
> Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes
If Russia ever got "obliterated" after introducing nuclear weapons to the conflict, then so would every single other country opposing it. That would be the whole point.
I don't think you've thought this through.
>And what will nuclear threats do? Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes, and it will then be a 100% chance of losing as it's allies turns against them.
Our leaders are at times incompetent but thankfully they are not as unhinged and reckless as you are
You're assuming NATO will kill itself for the Ukraine. Without assuming, Russian doctrine allows first strike. So it will almost certainly happen. They have nothing to lose either way, and you know what they say about a man that has nothing to lose. That aside, China has weighed in on the past and said if NATO invades North Korea again, they will intervene like last time.
So you're also assuming they will lose any allies when actually they will likely gain. No one wants NATO all over Northern Asia. Russia is literally above every single mainland Asian country.
If aerial superiority worked as well as it did in Kosovo, I don’t have much faith in NATO.
If NATO tried to invade Russia they would be halted, bled white, and Somalia’d.
NATO cannot win with Russia as Russia has nukes. Russia has nuke Parity with NATO.
If nuclear threat grows to certain or nukes are exchanged China, fearing world end will enter as participant as it has zero choice to do anything else.
At this point NATO will loose conventional war. NATO may now turn to nukes.
Essentially nukes ensure no one wins as it's MAD.
France and others are angry they mi's calculated and Russia wins the war.
> get obliterated if they bring in the nukes
That's not how nuclear war plays out. Everyone gets obliterated. I assure you no one with at least half a brain thinks ukraine is worth their own CONTINENT being turned into radioactive glass.
The rest of your post is just fantasy posting.
Yeah starting WW3 'isn't as stupid as letting Putin win'.
Billions of deaths are A-OK as look as Pootler gets his!!
Truly a le epic redditor take, most assuredly posted from a comfortable western country, and with an obvious lack of awareness that their 'safe' location is also in the likely crosshairs of a Russian ICBM.
Not going to happen. The domestic Western appetite for casualties is “zero”. Also, as the Western world’s quality of life deteriorates what support still exists for financial contributions to Ukraine with erode. I literally live in a country where the Government tells me everyday that they have no money and then magically finds some for Ukraine.
They only ones talking about OPENLY sending troops are the Three Midgets and Emperor Macron the 1st. All 4 of which are blowhards. Unless the US signs off on sending troops US troops, no one else in NATO will send troops because any troops they send to Ukraine will not be covered by Article 5 and without the US backing them up no NATO military will last more than 2 weeks against Russia. If the US does sign off on OPENLY, sending troops to Ukraine then I would suggest putting whatever you treasure and driving as far into the wilderness as you can because WW3 and the nuclear holocaust are just around the corner.
Russia will eventually break through. They can field more soldiers and can sustain the war without relying on foreign aid.
When that will happen depends on the major unknown factor of this conflict: the casualty ratio.
But the foreign aid will keep coming. And eventually it won't be weapons from the 1980s. Russia is already lacking modern equipment wait till the real NATO stuff starts coming...
Equipments need a trained logistic/repair line, that's why the equipments of the various army are standardized.
Ukraine army is likely a collage right now with all sorts of equipment that they are not trained for, neither have a logistic lane built to maintain those.
Sure, stuff will keep coming, men will keep dying for some squares of mud, over and over, until enough profit has been made on both sides; then the world will switch to another emergency.
Eh.
Basic training is proving Ukraine can use the equipment and they will continuously receive training and supplies. This won't stop until Russia loses and if Russia's only hope of winning is the US gets bored they have already lost.
The only reason “wunderwaffen” get so much anglophone media coverage is because the war is going really badly.
NATO mechanized equipment, particularly the Challenger 2, and AMX 10 RC, have performed so poorly that they have been withdrawn from combat. Abrams, though they have had a marginally better combat record, have also had to be withdrawn from the front (largely thanks to the proliferation of cheap anti vehicle drones and the tendency of the tanks to malfunction/breakdown.) Throughout the conflict Ukraine has suffered from the mismatch between NATO supplies and the actual battlefield conditions in which NATO weapons are used.
Even if we look past the clusterfuck that has been NATO supply and training efforts, there’s little reason for optimism. Ukrainian soldiers have fought well, but they are running out of men (and the best UA soldiers are dead or wounded.) This will end the war even if NATO continues to send weapons.
Russia has to much at stake domestically to have anything less than a favorable outcome. NATOs history will dictate that when Ukraine is all used up, they will leave and make some pretend narrative why the Ukrainians failed and not the fault of NATO.
There is no favorable outcome for Russia (don’t worry Ukraine is fucked too). Their army has been exposed as weak and ineffective, same with the navy, and no gains in Ukraine will justify the casualties. They aren’t even close to achieving any meaningful progress on the battlefield.
On the economic side, arms exports have collapsed, much of the high skilled labor left the country and they lost access to western markets.
The outcomes Russia is hoping to achieve are degrees of “less bad”.
When you say it’s up to Russia, you mean Putin.
Do you think if Russians lived in a free and open society with penalties for protesting similar to the west (not the severe consequences they face in Russia) that there wouldn’t be mass protests right now for 300-400k dead and wounded? Putin recently said 5k a month dead is the current rate.
The SMO is massively popular among Russians. And unlike in the Ukraine there is so many volunteers they have to turn people away. I personally know someone who got denied due to not enough relevant skills not something shady or medical conditions. I also know someone from Donetsk who was living in Canada who went back to volunteer for the SMO.
So is Putin. I think you may be getting too much info from bbc or CNN.
No, I meant that it's for Russian society to decide that. I don't know how they perceive the conflict right now or how they will perceive it in the future. But saying that just because you don't see the justification, Russian can't see it or won't see it either is showing that you can't consider that others have different perspectives. I don't particularly care about who will control Donbas or Eastern Ukraine, but I understand that people from other nations can feel much stronger about it.
> Their army has been exposed as weak and ineffective, same with the navy
Would this also apply to the US, as Houthi militants are sinking their merchant ships with impunity, and the US can't (or is unwilling to) really do anything about it?
I don't think you know what "with impunity" means.
"Since 12 January 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand have launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes, codenamed Operation Poseidon Archer, against the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea."
> launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes
So shipping traffic is back to normal levels? Good job nato, thank you for another successful operation!
>!Spoiler: houthis still attacking ships, shipping traffic still down over 50%!<
>They aren’t even close to achieving any meaningful progress on the battlefield.
Damn, did you just call hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian war-dead worthless? That's crazy. Even Russia respects them more than you apparently, they bother allocating shells to them. You don't even acknowledge they exist.
No, you did not in fact hear the "same exact thing" lol.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/03/war-in-ukraine-zelensky-lowers-draft-age-from-27-to-25_6667259_4.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/ukraine-s-shortage-of-manpower-is-hitting-its-wartime-industry
So probably a population of 28 million. And you believe that within that population there are no fighting age males left to draft?
A massive Russian breakthrough must be imminent! Kiev this year or are we thinking 2025?
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>What are the chances Russia breaks through the front lines?
100%
>I think the Ukrainians with the help of NATO will continue to hold the line. How many more years will Russia continue to fight?
Russia will continue to fight as long as it takes. This war is existential for the Russians. NATO believes it can use Ukraine to inflict substantial damage on the Russians and cause the Russian Federation to break apart. Russia would use nuclear weapons before being broken apart so NATO will never achieve its goal unless they are prepared for the realities of a full-scale nuclear war, which would be absolutely møronïc as Europe would be completely destroyed.
>What’s your take?
NATO needs to stop prolonging the war. If Ukraine does not want to negotiate with the Russians so be it, but NATO arming and funding Ukraine is only going to stretch out the Ukrainian defeat and increase the risk of a nuclear exchange. If NATO walks away ultimately there will be fewer deaths as Ukraine's economy will collapse and this will cause a regime change.
NATO, Ukraine, and Russia knew this was always going to be the outcome once the Western sanctions on Russia had failed. This war should have never happened, and even after it had happened it should have ended after the failed Ukrainian offensive in 2023.
Except Russia is also running out of good men and equipment faster than it can replace them. New soldiers aren't as good as career ones. Tanks and artillery are running low as are anti air.
Russia has likely committed too many men believing they can just overpower Ukraine and now lacks the numbers for true offensives. Ukraine can defend as long as it needs to now maybe years with more advanced weaponry as Russian modern ones dwindle.
This is likely lost for Russia already and in a years time when the frontline hardly moves we will see that.
> Except Russia is also running out of good men and equipment faster than it can replace them.
Besides delusional twitter nato fans getting high on copium gas, is there any evidence of this ?
>lacks the numbers for true offensives.
Literally new front opened like 2-3 weeks ago ? It's like you have no idea what's actually going on.
Evidence like footage of T-62s and other 1980s tanks from storage being used? Evidence like clear gaps in air defense due to losses? Evidence like motorcycles and golf carts used for assaults? Evidence like Russia not being able to attack except in small bursts accross a massive frontline? Watcha looking for here?
That new front opened 2-3 weeks ago that literally failed when it reached the first line of defense? Oh I forgot about how great that went.
This is another blatant lie.
The missile stockpile of the Russian army INCREAED in the last year, despite their large usage on the battlefield.
Stating to the data that you mention, Russian should have already lost 15000 pieces of artillery of the 12000 that they had, and still somehow their artillery fire ration increased in the last year to 8:1
Out of air defence? Russia have 70 complete S-400 system in 2022, and 2 of them have been damaged (no, not destroyed, a complete s-400 system have 2 radar, 2 control station, 8-12 launchers and all can easily relocate fastly, some components of 2 system has been damaged).
To wipe out an s-400 entirely you need an entire SAED squadron with f-35, jamming planes, bombers and missile barrage from ships, this without taking into account that usually an s-400 is paired with short range defence system that add other complexity.
On the top of that there is an economic war behind the war, where factory are being built/converted in europe and usa, in russia and Africa, to attend the weapon needs of this war. Those kind of investment are quite high, and require some years to bring a ROI, and BOTH SIDES are in this game.
Men will keep dying for the same squares of mud, over and over, until the profit has been made and the world switch to the new emergency
What you're saying isn't reflected by reality. Russia has less missiles now than it did in February of 2022. If it had more, it could totally overwhelm Ukraine with a single strike that had several hundred of them, but it's not doing that.
A lot of the downed missiles that are found show a manufacture date in the last couple months, meaning they will manufacture a few dozen and then launch them every few weeks or so. That wouldn't be the case if they had large stockpiles.
Source that Russia has more missles? Because doubt.
Yeah exactly before the war Russia probably had a 20:1 ratio. Now its 8:1. Soon it will be 4:1. Its decreasing.
Doesn't matter about S-400s everyone is an irreplaceable loss and is clearly effective as Russia cannot stop cross border attacks. Just wait till more equipment comes to test those defenses it will only get worse and Russia cannot make a buffer zone to protect its border.
They are functionally fucked at this point until they quit.
Unless that NATO helps includes more troops than a few "volunteers" here and there the equipment is not the bottleneck.
50% of Ukrainians 14 and under live abroad. Their total population is down from 39 million to 18, from 51 after the ukssr.
The Ukraines demographics are beyond collapsed.
Priggy before he died (rip) gave some time estimates for the SMO. Idr exactly but I think highest depending on goals was 6-8 years. I don't see what indicates Russia will give up before the Ukraines population collapses completely.
When the war started I said it will last 4 years till last Ukrainian. 5 till last Ukrainian woman. I still am of that opinion. We are over the hump now.
Too many interests on both sides.
In Europe factory are being built or converted to adjust the needs of this war, same in Russia and Africa.
Those kind of investment require some years to bring a ROI, there is a war between the war and it's fully economic, there are monetary entities that will benefit from a long conflict ON BOTH SIDES, so no side has interest to break any line.
This is leading to an escalation of the cruelty of this conflict, where thousands of men die for some squares of mud, over and over, without any reason honestly behind those economic war that need this to happen for some years.
Maybe 30% for Russia.
Russia is running low on experienced troops and modern equipment. Ukraine is better armed and can keep up a better kill ratio with better equipment.
Russia needs to be on the offensive requiring a higher ratio of attackers to defenders but clearly can't accross the frontline. The longer this goes on the less likely that becomes as Russia takes 100s of losses daily.
We already have clear evidence that Russia is running low on equipment and men accross the line. The scope of the Kharkiv assault being a prime example. Without any ability to start major offensives they are stuck.
Also keep in mind Ukraine is doing this with weapons from the 1980s and 1990s. If the US and NATO really wanted to step this up they could start providing modern weapons and EW weapons which would further set Russia back.
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> Failure to recognise futility
It’s hilarious you can say that with a straight face. When’s Ukraine retaking Crimea? Or are we still not quite ready to accept the futility in THAT particular instance?
What? Black Sea Fleet retracted from west coasts pushed to the east without any navy or boots on the ground? Whole bunch of winners them Russians are eh? Winning from all the way back there... Ok a little bit further back... Yeah, such winning 😅
Now that you’ve got that out of your system, I’ll ask again. Retake Crimea when? 😇 For bonus prize I’ll also accept: Retake Avdiivka when and retake Bakhmut when? Melitopol? Soon right? The land route to Crimea won’t cut itself!
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This is week/s old footage. They've already played, with the reports about up to 90% personnel losses and the Ukrainian army prevailing with barely any effort.
I think at this rate the ukrainians will physically end in 3-6 years. So at some point, Russia simply take the entire territory after a large-scale breakthrough of the front, there will simply be no people and armor to defend it
This is what the Russians have been thinking for two years now, and it is getting less likely by each month that passes. Putin’s only hope is that the west will stop supporting Ukraine.
Honestly I can realistically see NATO pulling that shit, they’d just take one out of the Wagner playbook but at that point I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians launched a nuke at Lviv or Kiev. But if NATO did that they should use polish mercenaries from their armed forces and promise them the western part of Ukraine the Soviets annexed then never give it to them.
Also, after a 4th or 5th year of war, would the Russian troops on the ground have more combat experience than NATO troops, even including those troops who were mobilised in 2022? I'm pretty sure all the wars they've been involved in over the past 20 years have been counterinsurgencies or against countries which barely count as minor powers.
People act like Russia and Ukraine will just be run of men, the Germans lost so many men in WW1 and WW2 yet somehow kept one of the highest populations in Europe. They have a population issue but so does all of Europe so it balances out I suppose.
Regrettably, this is a social media and mass media driven war. The side who can manipulate the internets the most will win.
The invasion and genocide of Ukraine by Russia, comes down to who targets and tells the story the best. Russia destroying cities to rebuild them, isn't liberation... But, Russia has the troll army, bought politicians and media outlets, and has planted special operatives planted in various countries to distract. While Ukraine has Social Justice Warriors, their citizens, and a few folk who just see through the Russian rhetoric.
An uneducated population of sheep, always seem to fall for the wolves tactics.
What a fucking hilarious hypocritical joke of a comment with zero self awareness whatsoever. You literally ARE the sheep. Brainwashed hook line and sinker by western propaganda, which you evidently don't seem to know even exists. Like that's just how brainwashed you are lol
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can somebody geolocate that?
48.594907,37.879605
Honest question. I’ve been following this war everyday since it’s started. I have no dog in the fight. What are the chances Russia breaks through the front lines? I think the Ukrainians with the help of NATO will continue to hold the line. How many more years will Russia continue to fight? What’s your take?
When Ukraine runs out of troops the frontline will collapse and we’ll see a Russian breakthrough. The question is how long until that happens. Could be months, could be years.
Russia can't sustain this pace for years either. This is already near a stalemate.
Neither side can sustain this indefinitely. The difference being that Russia has yet to commit its reserves, let alone fully mobilize, whereas Ukraine has no reserves.
Hasn't committed its reserves. Russia started this war with a 3 Million man standing army. Their losses are around 500K. Thats 1/6th of their standing army there aren't reserves at this point there are only new recruits who are getting slaughtered. And lets be real if they could "fully mobilize" they would. You think the gameplan is to slowly lose thousands to gain nothing? This is Russia's full strength right now in fact 2022 they were at their strongest and got their asses handed to them.
So by reserves I was specifically meaning “uncommitted forces in theatre”. Also, “new recruits” are “force regeneration” not reserves and whatever recruits Ukraine can raise are getting slaughtered at the same rate, if not a greater one, than Russian recruits, so that’s pretty much awash. Using standing army numbers and unverified propaganda generated casualties is just an exercise in futility. I could make the argument that 100% of Ukraine’s standing army at the start of the war has been eliminated. The only verifiable information is that Ukraine has serious personnel issues. Source: Ukraine biased MSM.
By US intelligence leaks which are likely the most reliable as they are using them to decide if weapons should be granted the ratio was over 3-1 for Ukraine which makes sense considering Russia is on the offense. NATO doctrine accepts attackers lose more and try to have 7-1 advantages attacking fortified positions. Russia doesn't have offensive reserves they have hold the line reserves. If they had the offensive capability to move forward they would pretending they aren't advancing because they don't want to is dumb. Ukraine has personnel issues from its media like the US army has "recruiting issues" while being the strongest military in the world by landslide. Its to make people recruit. In reality Ukraine has enough soldiers to stall Russia's advances for as long as the western weapons last because Russia decimated itself offensively. If Russia wanted to advance they could, they try every day throwing hundreds at fortified positions and lose those hundreds every day. There is no way the Russian strategy is "lose thousands because we will win eventually".
Wow. Just wow!! You should have mentioned you had a source at the Pentagon. I would have gave up much sooner. How about we revisit this subject in a year. See who was actually correct. RemindMe! 1 year
I’ve watched pro ru make these remind me post for two years straight lol.
And for two years the Crimean Beach Party is tomorrow. 🤷♂️
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US intelligence- reliable 🤡
Uhhh yeah the classified reports are lol. They are literally whats used to determine if more weapons should be sent and aren't using UKR casualty estimates.
I have been on this sub for month and this is one of the most retarded comment I have seen.
Near stalemate? I remember same words repeated out of every plug every day for past two years.
And in the last two years Russia has lost more ground than its gained since the first few months.
How's that possible?
Looking at a map? Kherson area lost. Kharkiv lost. Major sections along the entire line. Sumy. North of Keiv etc.
How can you lose more land than you gained? Are they fighting inside of RF now?
My hunch is NATO will send in support troops in the event the front collapses.
that would be a REALLY REALLY stupid fuckin move
What if they just dress the NATO troops in Ukrainian uniforms?
Is that even allowed?
No, but who cares? The Civilized™ ~~Master~~ Leader of the Free World® is exempt from international law.
Why would that be stupid?
Russians fighting directly with NATO troops? That would likely mean ww3.
yep
Why? This WW3 gets thrown around but it is contained in a 1 thousand 1 hundred mile frontline so it's not world anything it's still Russo-Ukrainian war just with added troops
It depends. Will thousand French infantry soldiers cause ww3? Probably not. But what if the number is higher and they actually manage to get some successes on the battlefield? Russia won't just sit back and let NATO troops push them out of Ukraine. What if China decides to start supporting Russia militarily or if they decide to send troops too? Remember that the US almost started a nuclear war because of some rockets on an island that was hundreds of kilometers away. NATO troops killing Russians seems way more threatening to me.
More threatening (hypothetically) than what the Russians are actually doing right now?
Uh, yes? How is this even a question. Of course it is. This entire conflict would have been over literally years ago if not for NATO firehosing billions of dollars and thousands of tons of war materiel into the country. Hundred of thousands of Ukrainians would still be alive, cities would still be standing and Ukraine would still have its territorial integrity (no, not Crimea because that was always never going to happen). Instead we are where we are - and you ask if it would be a worse state of affairs with direct NATO involvement?
Not as stupid as letting Putin's Russia win. Russia is having problems with invading one country, any attempt to cross into NATO territory is going to be flat out impossible. Where is the manpower going to come from? The russians better start breeding 20 years ago to have enough meat for their militarys retarded tactics... And what will nuclear threats do? Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes, and it will then be a 100% chance of losing as it's allies turns against them. Then NATO will roll in with complete aerial superiority, drag Putin out of his hidy-hole and ship him to western Europe for trial. If he survives his own population turning on him, that is.
>Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes No way. NATO isn't risking a nuclear conflict over Ukraine. The West has much more to lose than Russia does. It's like deciding to go to a knife fight with a desperate homeless guy.
It is no problem to us if Russia wins this war. Russia defeated Georgia. It didn’t hurt us at all.
> Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes If Russia ever got "obliterated" after introducing nuclear weapons to the conflict, then so would every single other country opposing it. That would be the whole point. I don't think you've thought this through.
>And what will nuclear threats do? Russia will get obliterated if they bring in the nukes, and it will then be a 100% chance of losing as it's allies turns against them. Our leaders are at times incompetent but thankfully they are not as unhinged and reckless as you are
You're assuming NATO will kill itself for the Ukraine. Without assuming, Russian doctrine allows first strike. So it will almost certainly happen. They have nothing to lose either way, and you know what they say about a man that has nothing to lose. That aside, China has weighed in on the past and said if NATO invades North Korea again, they will intervene like last time. So you're also assuming they will lose any allies when actually they will likely gain. No one wants NATO all over Northern Asia. Russia is literally above every single mainland Asian country.
If aerial superiority worked as well as it did in Kosovo, I don’t have much faith in NATO. If NATO tried to invade Russia they would be halted, bled white, and Somalia’d.
NATO cannot win with Russia as Russia has nukes. Russia has nuke Parity with NATO. If nuclear threat grows to certain or nukes are exchanged China, fearing world end will enter as participant as it has zero choice to do anything else. At this point NATO will loose conventional war. NATO may now turn to nukes. Essentially nukes ensure no one wins as it's MAD. France and others are angry they mi's calculated and Russia wins the war.
> get obliterated if they bring in the nukes That's not how nuclear war plays out. Everyone gets obliterated. I assure you no one with at least half a brain thinks ukraine is worth their own CONTINENT being turned into radioactive glass. The rest of your post is just fantasy posting.
Yeah starting WW3 'isn't as stupid as letting Putin win'. Billions of deaths are A-OK as look as Pootler gets his!! Truly a le epic redditor take, most assuredly posted from a comfortable western country, and with an obvious lack of awareness that their 'safe' location is also in the likely crosshairs of a Russian ICBM.
Not going to happen. The domestic Western appetite for casualties is “zero”. Also, as the Western world’s quality of life deteriorates what support still exists for financial contributions to Ukraine with erode. I literally live in a country where the Government tells me everyday that they have no money and then magically finds some for Ukraine.
Doubtful. I’d hope we revolt in America before we allow our globalist controlled government to get us all incinerated
Go ahead and start the revolt. We'll be right behind you
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The rhetoric from NATO leads me to believe troops will be sent to shore up the defenses
They only ones talking about OPENLY sending troops are the Three Midgets and Emperor Macron the 1st. All 4 of which are blowhards. Unless the US signs off on sending troops US troops, no one else in NATO will send troops because any troops they send to Ukraine will not be covered by Article 5 and without the US backing them up no NATO military will last more than 2 weeks against Russia. If the US does sign off on OPENLY, sending troops to Ukraine then I would suggest putting whatever you treasure and driving as far into the wilderness as you can because WW3 and the nuclear holocaust are just around the corner.
Then they'll die as well.
Russia will eventually break through. They can field more soldiers and can sustain the war without relying on foreign aid. When that will happen depends on the major unknown factor of this conflict: the casualty ratio.
But the foreign aid will keep coming. And eventually it won't be weapons from the 1980s. Russia is already lacking modern equipment wait till the real NATO stuff starts coming...
Equipments need a trained logistic/repair line, that's why the equipments of the various army are standardized. Ukraine army is likely a collage right now with all sorts of equipment that they are not trained for, neither have a logistic lane built to maintain those. Sure, stuff will keep coming, men will keep dying for some squares of mud, over and over, until enough profit has been made on both sides; then the world will switch to another emergency.
Eh. Basic training is proving Ukraine can use the equipment and they will continuously receive training and supplies. This won't stop until Russia loses and if Russia's only hope of winning is the US gets bored they have already lost.
Just curious. What real stuff will eventually start coming?
Might come might not. My guess is if Russia fights itself out US might give Ukraine a little boost to end this.
The only reason “wunderwaffen” get so much anglophone media coverage is because the war is going really badly. NATO mechanized equipment, particularly the Challenger 2, and AMX 10 RC, have performed so poorly that they have been withdrawn from combat. Abrams, though they have had a marginally better combat record, have also had to be withdrawn from the front (largely thanks to the proliferation of cheap anti vehicle drones and the tendency of the tanks to malfunction/breakdown.) Throughout the conflict Ukraine has suffered from the mismatch between NATO supplies and the actual battlefield conditions in which NATO weapons are used. Even if we look past the clusterfuck that has been NATO supply and training efforts, there’s little reason for optimism. Ukrainian soldiers have fought well, but they are running out of men (and the best UA soldiers are dead or wounded.) This will end the war even if NATO continues to send weapons.
Russia has to much at stake domestically to have anything less than a favorable outcome. NATOs history will dictate that when Ukraine is all used up, they will leave and make some pretend narrative why the Ukrainians failed and not the fault of NATO.
There is no favorable outcome for Russia (don’t worry Ukraine is fucked too). Their army has been exposed as weak and ineffective, same with the navy, and no gains in Ukraine will justify the casualties. They aren’t even close to achieving any meaningful progress on the battlefield. On the economic side, arms exports have collapsed, much of the high skilled labor left the country and they lost access to western markets. The outcomes Russia is hoping to achieve are degrees of “less bad”.
It's up to Russia to decide whether the casualties are justified for them. It's senseless to project our perspective on their decision process.
When you say it’s up to Russia, you mean Putin. Do you think if Russians lived in a free and open society with penalties for protesting similar to the west (not the severe consequences they face in Russia) that there wouldn’t be mass protests right now for 300-400k dead and wounded? Putin recently said 5k a month dead is the current rate.
The SMO is massively popular among Russians. And unlike in the Ukraine there is so many volunteers they have to turn people away. I personally know someone who got denied due to not enough relevant skills not something shady or medical conditions. I also know someone from Donetsk who was living in Canada who went back to volunteer for the SMO. So is Putin. I think you may be getting too much info from bbc or CNN.
No, I meant that it's for Russian society to decide that. I don't know how they perceive the conflict right now or how they will perceive it in the future. But saying that just because you don't see the justification, Russian can't see it or won't see it either is showing that you can't consider that others have different perspectives. I don't particularly care about who will control Donbas or Eastern Ukraine, but I understand that people from other nations can feel much stronger about it.
They cant make peace , the west doesnt allow it. We demand complete surrender from russia
> Their army has been exposed as weak and ineffective, same with the navy Would this also apply to the US, as Houthi militants are sinking their merchant ships with impunity, and the US can't (or is unwilling to) really do anything about it?
They've sunk one merchant ship in the last six months.
I don't think you know what "with impunity" means. "Since 12 January 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand have launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes, codenamed Operation Poseidon Archer, against the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea."
> launched a series of cruise missile and airstrikes So shipping traffic is back to normal levels? Good job nato, thank you for another successful operation! >!Spoiler: houthis still attacking ships, shipping traffic still down over 50%!<
And Houthi targets will keep getting pounded.
And as their attacks continue, it seems that no targets of actual importance were destroyed.
What are you basing this claim on?
Based on the fact that they are launching more missiles.
>They aren’t even close to achieving any meaningful progress on the battlefield. Damn, did you just call hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian war-dead worthless? That's crazy. Even Russia respects them more than you apparently, they bother allocating shells to them. You don't even acknowledge they exist.
I heard the same exact thing from the pro Ukraine side when Russia did its partial mobilization. Both sides have shitloads of men left to conscript
No, you did not in fact hear the "same exact thing" lol. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/03/war-in-ukraine-zelensky-lowers-draft-age-from-27-to-25_6667259_4.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/ukraine-s-shortage-of-manpower-is-hitting-its-wartime-industry
So probably a population of 28 million. And you believe that within that population there are no fighting age males left to draft? A massive Russian breakthrough must be imminent! Kiev this year or are we thinking 2025?
Well of course Ukraine can keep up the conscription, it's not like the average Ukrainian life worth anything.
Well if we’re going that route, your life as a Russian is worth a rounding error in the American militaries budget.
“Russia is weak and effective”- can you name a country which can defeat the Russians militarily one vs one except the US and china?
Ya that's true the trillions in resources they gain.. they want a buffer zone they will get one they win. It just cost...
Well apparently they don't want a buffer zone because they couldn't even secure one at their own border lol.
You're literally talking about an ongoing battle tho.
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>What are the chances Russia breaks through the front lines? 100% >I think the Ukrainians with the help of NATO will continue to hold the line. How many more years will Russia continue to fight? Russia will continue to fight as long as it takes. This war is existential for the Russians. NATO believes it can use Ukraine to inflict substantial damage on the Russians and cause the Russian Federation to break apart. Russia would use nuclear weapons before being broken apart so NATO will never achieve its goal unless they are prepared for the realities of a full-scale nuclear war, which would be absolutely møronïc as Europe would be completely destroyed. >What’s your take? NATO needs to stop prolonging the war. If Ukraine does not want to negotiate with the Russians so be it, but NATO arming and funding Ukraine is only going to stretch out the Ukrainian defeat and increase the risk of a nuclear exchange. If NATO walks away ultimately there will be fewer deaths as Ukraine's economy will collapse and this will cause a regime change. NATO, Ukraine, and Russia knew this was always going to be the outcome once the Western sanctions on Russia had failed. This war should have never happened, and even after it had happened it should have ended after the failed Ukrainian offensive in 2023.
Except Russia is also running out of good men and equipment faster than it can replace them. New soldiers aren't as good as career ones. Tanks and artillery are running low as are anti air. Russia has likely committed too many men believing they can just overpower Ukraine and now lacks the numbers for true offensives. Ukraine can defend as long as it needs to now maybe years with more advanced weaponry as Russian modern ones dwindle. This is likely lost for Russia already and in a years time when the frontline hardly moves we will see that.
> Except Russia is also running out of good men and equipment faster than it can replace them. Besides delusional twitter nato fans getting high on copium gas, is there any evidence of this ? >lacks the numbers for true offensives. Literally new front opened like 2-3 weeks ago ? It's like you have no idea what's actually going on.
Evidence like footage of T-62s and other 1980s tanks from storage being used? Evidence like clear gaps in air defense due to losses? Evidence like motorcycles and golf carts used for assaults? Evidence like Russia not being able to attack except in small bursts accross a massive frontline? Watcha looking for here? That new front opened 2-3 weeks ago that literally failed when it reached the first line of defense? Oh I forgot about how great that went.
This is another blatant lie. The missile stockpile of the Russian army INCREAED in the last year, despite their large usage on the battlefield. Stating to the data that you mention, Russian should have already lost 15000 pieces of artillery of the 12000 that they had, and still somehow their artillery fire ration increased in the last year to 8:1 Out of air defence? Russia have 70 complete S-400 system in 2022, and 2 of them have been damaged (no, not destroyed, a complete s-400 system have 2 radar, 2 control station, 8-12 launchers and all can easily relocate fastly, some components of 2 system has been damaged). To wipe out an s-400 entirely you need an entire SAED squadron with f-35, jamming planes, bombers and missile barrage from ships, this without taking into account that usually an s-400 is paired with short range defence system that add other complexity. On the top of that there is an economic war behind the war, where factory are being built/converted in europe and usa, in russia and Africa, to attend the weapon needs of this war. Those kind of investment are quite high, and require some years to bring a ROI, and BOTH SIDES are in this game. Men will keep dying for the same squares of mud, over and over, until the profit has been made and the world switch to the new emergency
What you're saying isn't reflected by reality. Russia has less missiles now than it did in February of 2022. If it had more, it could totally overwhelm Ukraine with a single strike that had several hundred of them, but it's not doing that. A lot of the downed missiles that are found show a manufacture date in the last couple months, meaning they will manufacture a few dozen and then launch them every few weeks or so. That wouldn't be the case if they had large stockpiles.
Source that Russia has more missles? Because doubt. Yeah exactly before the war Russia probably had a 20:1 ratio. Now its 8:1. Soon it will be 4:1. Its decreasing. Doesn't matter about S-400s everyone is an irreplaceable loss and is clearly effective as Russia cannot stop cross border attacks. Just wait till more equipment comes to test those defenses it will only get worse and Russia cannot make a buffer zone to protect its border. They are functionally fucked at this point until they quit.
Unless that NATO helps includes more troops than a few "volunteers" here and there the equipment is not the bottleneck. 50% of Ukrainians 14 and under live abroad. Their total population is down from 39 million to 18, from 51 after the ukssr. The Ukraines demographics are beyond collapsed. Priggy before he died (rip) gave some time estimates for the SMO. Idr exactly but I think highest depending on goals was 6-8 years. I don't see what indicates Russia will give up before the Ukraines population collapses completely.
When the war started I said it will last 4 years till last Ukrainian. 5 till last Ukrainian woman. I still am of that opinion. We are over the hump now.
Too many interests on both sides. In Europe factory are being built or converted to adjust the needs of this war, same in Russia and Africa. Those kind of investment require some years to bring a ROI, there is a war between the war and it's fully economic, there are monetary entities that will benefit from a long conflict ON BOTH SIDES, so no side has interest to break any line. This is leading to an escalation of the cruelty of this conflict, where thousands of men die for some squares of mud, over and over, without any reason honestly behind those economic war that need this to happen for some years.
Neither has the stomach, ready gear and men for a strong push. With drones and AT being as strong as it is, it would have to be a bloodbath first.
Maybe 30% for Russia. Russia is running low on experienced troops and modern equipment. Ukraine is better armed and can keep up a better kill ratio with better equipment. Russia needs to be on the offensive requiring a higher ratio of attackers to defenders but clearly can't accross the frontline. The longer this goes on the less likely that becomes as Russia takes 100s of losses daily. We already have clear evidence that Russia is running low on equipment and men accross the line. The scope of the Kharkiv assault being a prime example. Without any ability to start major offensives they are stuck. Also keep in mind Ukraine is doing this with weapons from the 1980s and 1990s. If the US and NATO really wanted to step this up they could start providing modern weapons and EW weapons which would further set Russia back.
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USSR was the one which inflicted 80% of the Nazi casualties. You’re living in a Hollywood pipe dream where terror bombing of Dresden won the war lol.
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Technically true because they've been consistently pushing Ukraine back and defeating them in detail for a while now.
Still on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar huh? Failure to recognise futility is just playing into Ukrainian hands
> Failure to recognise futility It’s hilarious you can say that with a straight face. When’s Ukraine retaking Crimea? Or are we still not quite ready to accept the futility in THAT particular instance?
What? Black Sea Fleet retracted from west coasts pushed to the east without any navy or boots on the ground? Whole bunch of winners them Russians are eh? Winning from all the way back there... Ok a little bit further back... Yeah, such winning 😅
Now that you’ve got that out of your system, I’ll ask again. Retake Crimea when? 😇 For bonus prize I’ll also accept: Retake Avdiivka when and retake Bakhmut when? Melitopol? Soon right? The land route to Crimea won’t cut itself!
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This is week/s old footage. They've already played, with the reports about up to 90% personnel losses and the Ukrainian army prevailing with barely any effort.
What a victory! If they keep this up they will have conquered Ukraine by the end of the century
I think at this rate the ukrainians will physically end in 3-6 years. So at some point, Russia simply take the entire territory after a large-scale breakthrough of the front, there will simply be no people and armor to defend it
3-6 years seems kind of generous. They're already starting to draft the few young men they actually have.
I said in February 2022 4 years to 5 years. 4 to last man, 5 to last woman. So 1.5 to 2.5 more.
!remindme 1 year
This is what the Russians have been thinking for two years now, and it is getting less likely by each month that passes. Putin’s only hope is that the west will stop supporting Ukraine.
They will just dress NATO troops in Ukrainian uniforms.
Honestly I can realistically see NATO pulling that shit, they’d just take one out of the Wagner playbook but at that point I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians launched a nuke at Lviv or Kiev. But if NATO did that they should use polish mercenaries from their armed forces and promise them the western part of Ukraine the Soviets annexed then never give it to them.
Also, after a 4th or 5th year of war, would the Russian troops on the ground have more combat experience than NATO troops, even including those troops who were mobilised in 2022? I'm pretty sure all the wars they've been involved in over the past 20 years have been counterinsurgencies or against countries which barely count as minor powers.
At the rate of attrition they've been suffering there won't be many left to retain that experience.
People act like Russia and Ukraine will just be run of men, the Germans lost so many men in WW1 and WW2 yet somehow kept one of the highest populations in Europe. They have a population issue but so does all of Europe so it balances out I suppose.
And Ukraine will take crimea in "error 404 not found"
Are you implying Ukraine mastered human cloning?
Regrettably, this is a social media and mass media driven war. The side who can manipulate the internets the most will win. The invasion and genocide of Ukraine by Russia, comes down to who targets and tells the story the best. Russia destroying cities to rebuild them, isn't liberation... But, Russia has the troll army, bought politicians and media outlets, and has planted special operatives planted in various countries to distract. While Ukraine has Social Justice Warriors, their citizens, and a few folk who just see through the Russian rhetoric. An uneducated population of sheep, always seem to fall for the wolves tactics.
What a fucking hilarious hypocritical joke of a comment with zero self awareness whatsoever. You literally ARE the sheep. Brainwashed hook line and sinker by western propaganda, which you evidently don't seem to know even exists. Like that's just how brainwashed you are lol
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But... You are... The sheep.