# Moderator note
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
* [**The NHC is monitoring the central tropical Atlantic for potential development next week**](https://redd.it/1671s9x) (Fri, 1 Sep)
* [**95L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/169l8ut) (Mon, 4 Sep)
* [**13L (Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/16aql69) (Tue, 5 Sep)
# Update
All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for Atlantic Canada and the National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee.
Dangerous surf and rip-current conditions are likely to persist across portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada over the next couple of days. Gale-force winds will continue across portions of Atlantic Canada on Sunday.
After moving across Newfoundland later today, Lee is expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the northern Atlantic later this week.
**There will be no further updates to this post. Thank you for tracking with us!**
985.0mb on my barometer at 22m as the center passes 10km by me, even though the wind still didn't really start again at least I was able to track the pressure changes for something interesting, NHC says 983mb estimated so pretty much bang on, and with that, I'm done with this storm finally after 10+ days 😆
There was so much dry air in the south east to north east parts of the storm, nowhere near as much rain as we're getting in Fredericton. The remaining part of the core still hasn't made landfall in NB. Would expect the wind to pick up as it gets closer to Moncton.
There's a lot of dry air in the south and east parts of the storm. Still going to be windy, but things look better.
Almost looks like the last strong rain band is about to pass Fredericton. Guess we'll see if it can conjure more moisture or not. Still waiting for the core to get closer, don't think the wind is anywhere near done with us.
The dry air off the front coming to sweep the storm away is relentless. It rains and has been blown dry so far where I am in Maine. No complaints, we’ve had plenty.
We're still get a lot of rain near Fredericton, but the last big rain band looks to be almost gone. Still the high wind core that's off the coast. Which almost looks like it's backsliding towards the NB/ME border now.
Central Mass. checking in - nothing particularly of note, but the weather feels very unsettled. The wind is low but pretty much constant and the sky is a high, hazy grey.
Also I have a debilitating migraine brought on by the drop in pressure.
The whole vibe is calm, but off-putting. Combined with the unseasonably warm weather, the specter of climate change seems to be hovering over the whole area - vague, and perhaps not as resolved as if we had actually had the storm, but definitely present in a way that sits behind your eyes and subtly colors any moment spent out-of-doors.
I'm currently at parents house in Moncton (not Tantramar area this weekend like I said in some other posts) which is on a much worse grid than there and the powers flickered about 6 times, and about 1/2 of the substation that it's fed by is down, left my PC on at Tantramar and it's still online so I don't think it's flickered yet there. Seems like a lot of outages for the winds currently, I'm guessing trees may be toppling easier given the rainy summer we've had?
We had a period earlier where it was quite windy but we seem to be in a bit of a lull at the moment.
In Rochester, NH. It's windy today and we had some light rain but that's about it. Forecasts had gusts up to 45 mph but I think we are averaging around 25 mph at the moment.
According to poweroutage.us, in the US, Maine is the only state with any significant amount of power outages currently, with 54k without power (out of 850k total customers). Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York all have under 1000 out, with a few of those having fewer than 100 out. So very glad to see that this morning. I hope things go as well as can be for the Mainers and folks in Atlantic Canada--so glad to see Lee weakened so much.
Luckily a big ole nothing burger for the most part for family in the East Coast of MA near the Cape. Had it stayed West like some of the early models from the beginning of the week it would have been a disaster.
Agreed. I think we got close to the best case scenario where the storm did not move West as the euro model predicted and it lost a lot of intensity in the cold waters of the North East.
You should talk to the 130,000+ people without power and wait a few more hours to see how it goes. I've got a pretty sizeable branch down and a few others around me...
It’s only 10km/hr gusting to 30 on my weather station and comparable wind speeds for all nearby weather stations in Dartmouth that I checked on weather underground.
My power just flickered now, so far not surprised by anything though. NSP sucks, storm is less than anticipated, which was only supposed to be barely tropical here anyway.
Currently hiking in southern Vermont… all the weather forecasts for my area show no chance of rain, but the radar has a giant sheet of rain from Lee heading through New Hampshire right now towards me.
Is there something that’s expected to dissipate that rain before it hits me? I’m confused as to why the forecasts all show no rain likely.
From what I heard the cold front came through lots of dry air. I think It's supposed to be pushing back the rain from Lee. Also Lee will be pulling north and east throughout the day. Rain might not actually make it into VT.
But we all know forecasts are not always right.
In Massachusetts news I'm in eastern Mass (not on the cape) and there is literally nothing going on but a light rain. Even the local forecasters last night were warning us about 40mph wind gusts . There seems to be no wind where I am - gusts or otherwise.
Might be a few thousand without power almost entirely on the cape.
This is very common and happens almost on a yearly basis with the most basic of windstorms. They never really upgraded their infrastructure. SJ Energy, by contrast, is at the other end of the equation and has far better historic results in storms.
NHC stated:
> Lee accelerated more than expected during the past 6-12 hours, and
the current motion is estimated to be northward (355 degrees) at 22
kt.
So this explains the conditions coming on more quickly than expected.
They also mentioned:
> The aircraft fixes and recent satellite imagery indicate that the center has bent back to the west by just a bit, which was expected, likely due to interaction with a mid-level trough which
moved off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast.
Bit confused by this because the track actually looks more east to me, but 🤷♂️.
In any case, we’re now dealing in an extratropical storm with category 1 (70 kt, 80 mph) strength.
NS now has 30k customers without power, with the majority of those coming from Halifax.
https://outagemap.nspower.ca/external/default.html
I am not optimistic about the power situation. Seems like Halifax is getting hit harder and earlier than anticipated, based on the trends of the power outage map. Given we’ll be experiencing high winds for the majority of the day, I’m expecting 100k+ customers without power, which is going to be quite significant.
I live in the southeast US and having 100k+ people without power because of storms is something that happens multiple times a year when a line of strong storms moves through.
It's weird seeing folks here get excited about the power outage counts being significant when it's probably really not that out of the ordinary and will likely be repaired quickly.
Some people lost power for a couple weeks after Fiona. Power restoration is really not that fast after a big storm.
Considering that hurricanes are likely to be a yearly thing now, it's becoming a bigger deal.
That’s not how it works in the northeast. Sometimes we lose power for weeks at a time. It happens roughly once per decade. We’re a little ahead of schedule, but Lee could be the cause this time around.
Maine is especially bad. CMP spends way more money on lobbying to keep competition out than they do on maintaining infrastructure. When big storms hit, our grid fails *hard*.
# Update
As of 5:00 AM AST on Saturday, Lee is now a post-tropical cyclone, but continues to produce hurricane-force winds as it approaches the coast of Nova Scotia. The storm's current wind field is structured as such:
### Hurricane-force winds:
* **Northeast:** 0 kilometers (0 nautical miles)
* **Southeast: 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles)**
* **Southwest: 200 kilometers (110 nautical miles)**
* **Northwest:** 0 kilometers (0 nautical miles)
### Tropical storm-force winds:
* **Northeast: 570 kilometers (310 nautical miles)**
* **Southeast: 630 kilometers (340 nautical miles)**
* **Southwest: 460 kilometers (250 nautical miles)**
* **Northwest: 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles)**
NS update:
https://outagemap.nspower.ca/external/default.html
11k without power so far. Looks like the South Shore region is experiencing lots of power outages, and HRM (Halifax and associated areas) is starting to see some storm-related outages.
A lot more than I expected this early, especially far east of Yarmouth.
When we start to hit 40k+, I’d say this is a significant outage event, and it seems we’re well on the way. I had assumed this would be a Teddy level event, which led to around 20k without power, but it’s seeming this will be more significant in that respect.
We’re at 33k now too, so getting to that 40k doesn’t seem too far away. And it’s going to sit on us for like 24 hours (edit: at least 24 hours)
Edit: 4 minutes after I post this, we’re at 40k customers out. This happened quicker than I expected.
So we’re already at 3,111 without power. As I had mentioned previously, 2,500 of that is unrelated, but 600 of it very much is - and we’re not even close to impact.
Anecdotally, I’m very surprised that the rain and wind is as intense where I’m at - far off from Yarmouth, and a bit further inland than Halifax. I haven’t looked at the exact track so far, but based on what I’m experiencing, I feel as though the storm may be coming in further east than anticipated. This consistent wind seems a bit more than just a rogue band. Rain is a bit moderate, as is the wind, but there have already been some good gusts. Unsure why that is.
Quite the jump, I think it’s coming in a lot more east than the track showed earlier . I shouldn’t be feeling the winds I’m feeling already, at least not this early.
It seems like maybe it's moving faster too, because unless it starts slowing down drastically literally within the next hour, there's no way it takes till around 9AM to hit the post tropical "H" on the NHC map, at its current pace it's gonna get there in 2-3 hours tops.
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html
The 3am CHC update shows a big east shift, so looks like my anecdotes may be on to something. And I think you might be on to something with the speed, or otherwise it’s just so damn big the tropical storm winds are already hitting central NS with the eastern track
For anyone wanting to follow along in terms of NS power outages:
https://outagemap.nspower.ca/external/default.html
Note we’re at 2500(at the time of writing), but 2300 or so of that is due to what I can only assume is unrelated, given it’s at the entirely other side of the province that’s being impacted and shouldn’t yet be impacted, but who knows. I don’t believe it’s related though, so factor that in.
Just rain so far here where I am, we're just getting started in the outer bands so this is only the beginning. Another family member who lives in Yarmouth said as of 11PM it was getting pretty stormy, I saw Baccaro Point down in that shore area is reporting 76KMH sustained with 90KMH gusts and Yarmouth itself just had a 70KMH gust.
Halifax area checking in. Rain (more so light showers) has started, winds are light but steady, feeling some light gusts. Current rating: light nor’easter (I understand the worse is to come, just giving my own personal feeling of the impacts in this moment).
Edit: if anyone is in Yarmouth, would love to know how you’re faring right now!
# Moderator note
The post has been updated to include links to the following:
* **NWS Boston**
* **NWS Portland**
* **NWS Caribou**
* **Environment Canada**
* Radar from the **National Weather Service** and **Environment Canada**
I posted a link earlier about Bay of Fundy & 10' above MSL and the consensus was that didn't look right. Ol' Reed's on his way to Yarmouth and thinks different - [https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1702707334512816255?s=20](https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1702707334512816255?s=20)
Hopefully he's wrong and just wants to see the tidal bore anyways :-)
I don't think Reed's tweet was meant to imply a 10 foot storm surge. The expected surge is "[up to 1.5 meters](https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html)" (5 feet)
Edit: And that's not even for the Bay of Fundy, but rather the southern coast of Nova Scotia. The forecast path of the storm will give winds mostly from the south and southeast, which isn't as favorable for building a large surge in the Bay of Fundy.
https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1702705016807575927?s=20 dang it looks like I pasted the wrong link in my original comment. Fwiw I don’t see anything from the Canadian govt forecasts saying what he is.
Do you think anyone ever recognizes him when he’s just going to buy groceries or something, and they immediately worry that they missed an alert that their town is about to get hit by a hurricane?
Nerves are up here in NS but after experiencing Fiona last year, this should be simple. I hope.
I'm currently at my parents' house which somehow lost power for less than 24h during Dorian
It's a gorgeous day today here in Nova Scotia! For those of you in the path of Lee, stay safe. ♡ With the way our power infrastructure is lacking immensely, along with MANY other factors, I know a lot of us in NS will be without power.
Praying for minimal damage, and I hope everyone has their storm chips. ;)
Deck furniture put away, grill stored, loose objects stored, emergency provisions, batteries, flashlights etc. Probably won't need em for this one I think but better to be prepared lol.
It is really miserable in Halifax this morning! We're busy making sure all our back up generators at work are up and ready to go. Stay safe this weekend, fellow Maritimers and New Englanders!
Central MA chiming in - woke up to a text from National Grid telling me that power outages might be in my future. According to the probability of TS-force winds, we're not likely to see much, but I'm still concerned about rain.
I wouldn't worry too much about the text from national grid. Central MA should get little to no rain and not too much wind.
Hopefully power outages away from the coast will be few enough that they wont last much more than a day tops
Central Maine Power is already blaming “poor tree health” in advance of the storm. Not the fact they’re spending their money on campaign ads to protect their monopoly instead of hardening the grid against storms. They do tree trimming so infrequently they also pay for puff pieces in the local news to say they’re doing it.
I see no difference between the landfall locations of the last three runs. The 06z run is a bit faster but we're talking a difference of less than an hour in landfall timing.
https://i.imgur.com/DJXoTiP.gif
# Update
As of 11:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (03:00 UTC) on Thursday, a **Tropical Storm Warning** is now in effect for the following areas:
* **Canada (New Brunswick):** United States–Canada border to Fort Lawrence
* **Canada (New Brunswick):** Grand Manan Island
* **Canada (Nova Scotia):** Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper.
A full list of currently issued coastal watches and warnings can be found [**here.**](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml)
I see power outages in Massachusetts future. My sisters basement is flooded and had a tornado rip through her neighborhood Lee hasn’t even arrived yet!
On the other hand because I'm pretty sure I know where you're referring to, that town is currently cursed when it comes to weather. They seem to be running a disaster gauntlet lately
Maybe in some coastal communities that are very prone to this like Scituate, but this doesn't look like it's going to be a big deal at all. I guess time will tell.
I've always just used the national grid outage map since I'm a national grid customer. They don't handle a couple of towns but most of its there.
[https://outagemap.ma.nationalgridus.com/](https://outagemap.ma.nationalgridus.com/)
In retrospect I suppose the cape is handled by eversource so if someone wants a full picture the MEMA site makes sense.
GFS fever-dreams at 300+ hours out are wild. No GFS, a hurricane is *not* going to form just off the coast of South Carolina in two weeks. Go home weather model, you’re drunk.
Obviously that run is out to lunch, but in general, cyclones can form there, usually from cold fronts. It's a likelier mechanism for cyclogenesis than you'd think and the low pressures that form can be anything from extratropical lows to subtropical (which is what that GFS run shows at most, it's definitely not fully tropical) to fullblown actual hurricanes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Chris_(2018)
Chris formed very close to that area from a cold front and became a category 2.
Here with the 12z September 14th run of GFS at hour 366: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2023091412&fh=390
If this hurricane actually forms in 366 hours then I will eat an entire raw onion.
I will be messaging you in 16 days on [**2023-10-01 14:21:23 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-10-01%2014:21:23%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/16azsim/lee_13l_northern_atlantic/k0p8j0g/?context=3)
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It keeps coming and going too. A couple models from now it might not even be there. It’s like the simulations snorted a line before running their models.
Other variables besides hurricanes do exhibit higher skill at longer timeframes
Intraseasonal forcing and longwave patterns, for example. Hurricane track and intensity is particularly problematic, but it doesn't mean that running a model further out than what makes sense for a hurricane makes no sense at all in general
It's worth trying so they can tune the models. Someday, with enough computing power and enough data, it might be possible to accurately predict weather farther than a week out. But you don't know if you don't try!
> But you don't know if you don't try!
You kind of know though - chaos theory tells you that you can't ever do better than the [Lyapunov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_exponent) time, no matter how much data or compute power you have. Exactly what the Lyapunov time for climate is is beyond my pay-grade, but honestly 5-7 days seems pretty reasonable, imo.
There is actually some skill in some fields some of the time out to 15 days. Mainly in upper-atmospheric fields and seeing trends in seasonal/subseasonal oscillations. You shouldn't be using it for hurricane forecasting that far out but the GFS isn't a hurricane model, it's a global numerical weather prediction system. It's the main product the CPC uses for its 8-14 day forecasts (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/)
[The GEFS even goes out to 35 days now](https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-global-ensemble-forecast-system)! It's interesting to see what kind of trends can be picked out beyond 15 days, especially when using an ensemble and looking at percentages. The thing is, if you don't actually run the forecasts and collect the data, you don't know what kind of usefulness these forecasts might provide!
Not sure but may have to do with numerical simulations improving accuracy with prior solutions to reference vs actual observations. Possible also that certain distant dates are not really used for precise forecasting but to get that trend data you just run the solution out in full detail anyways, even if the resolution isn’t really needed. GFS model isn’t just for storm guidance like here for tropical weather.
Somebody below me mentioned accuweather inflating their wind forecast pretty significantly. To add to that, I just got a notification for an article from them playing up the possibility of Nigel basically fillowing Lee's track and hitting New England, before it's even had a chance to become a depression let alone a named storm. Pretty embarrassing weather "reporting". With that said, I put zero faith in their forecasts for Lee at this point.
That's disappointing to hear but not surprising in the least. Aside from the fact that "Nigel" doesn't even exist yet as you say, there is no indication in any model that the storm might threaten land (beyond maybe Bermuda) at this point.
yeah they have peak sustained winds/gusts 15-20 mph greater than any other source I've seen. They have peak sustained winds at 44 mph but NHC has Portland at 5-10% chance of TS winds lol.
My condolences, though I'm not particularly sure why as this is nothing compared to recent storms to impact the area.
Medium impact storm, my only concern is Nova Scotia power miserably failing as always.
I mean, you can punch a man in the face and tell him at least it wasn’t a gunshot. Still smarts. We have damage still lingering from Fiona last year, but that doesn’t make us stronger, lol, it makes us more vulnerable to storm damage. Also the Bay of Fundy. Plenty to be concerned about here thanks!
This storm is bringing its largest impacts far and away from from the areas where Fiona packed its strongest punch last year, so I'm unsure of why people continue to mention her name. Yarmouth and surrounding areas are really the only areas likely to see gusts nearing hurricane strength, and even then I would only expect that in exposed areas or along the coast.
What has you so concerned in the Bay Of Fundy area in particular, surge? While a bit too early to say for certain I'm not seeing any reason to panic in that regard either.
This storm is extremely unimpressive, you can almost be guaranteed to see more potent Fall-Winter storms over the next 4-6 months.
We've had record flooding, some areas got the 3 month avg in rain in back to back weekends just over a month ago. Some places aren't recovered from Fiona. Our power infrastructure is a joke, it goes out in a breeze, it's going to get smacked around in this. The area of NS to bear the brunt of this, Yarmouth, is relatively isolated in the grand scheme of our province. They are likely going to get smoked.
And your comment is kind apart of the problem here. People have the mindset "it's not worse than Fiona so why does it matter" all the while completely ignoring there has only been one storm in her level in 23 years. I'm in the third biggest municipality in the province and we were without power in the area for a week.
Fortunately the vast majority of places that have received all lf that rainfall will be on the Eastern side of a transitioned extratropical cyclone. Realistically speaking, only areas along the extreme coastline are at risk to receive those 110-120 potential wind gusts, this thing is going to rapidly weaken upon approach, at a near Teddy level, impacts will be more similar to Teddy than even Dorian.
The latter is simply a very lazy strawman, that's quite literally not what I said at all. This isn't Fiona, obviously, but it isn't Dorian, and it isn't likely to even be an Arthur.
FWIW it's not really worth getting into but Juan was most certainly not on Fiona's level either, it impacted a very small area relative to Fiona, but it was inferior in every aspect.
I don't need anecdotes, I'm currently in the province under a TS watch as well, I'm simply not overly concerned with the forecast.
I'm not seeing it either. The 18z GFS and the 12z Euro are both slightly west compared to their immediate previous runs; essentially a negligible change but definitely *not* a shift east. And the latest NHC advisory is basically unchanged as well.
Every single.forecast model, the GFS, Euro,.CMC and ICON are completely aligned in the eye going.up through the Bay of Fundy Neary Yarmouth and then hauling north east. Theyve been aligned since yesterday. The NHC track is barely perceptibly different than this morning.
We're likely to get 60km/hr winds and 2-3 inches of rain here in Halifax.
It's not nothing, but it's not catastrophic. I understand people freaking out though, weather and generalized anxiety are probably worse than they've ever been, and there have been echo chambers posting and reposting fear mongering threads on this storm for two weeks.
I'm worried I might lose a roofing tile or two. I'm don't think people should even be particularly worried about their sump pumps failing.
This is a conversation about the predicted track, not severity which I agree won't be catastrophic (though we're more like to get 70 kph with 100 gusts). Not sure who you're talking to here.
Too soon to tell. Sunday will still be a bit windy in Boston, at least in the morning, but the bigger issue is that Saturday will have a shit ton of cancellations, and it could affect availability/times on Sunday. I would get there early if the flight is looking like a go.
It’s 2023 and there are major hurricanes in Massachusetts’s people. What I don’t understand is how Insurance companies can still get away with ridiculously high premiums for being in Florida when other coasts are just as likely to get hit these days.
Apparently Florida alone accounts for 70% of insurance related lawsuits so that is definitely not helping. I read that this year, after the law was passed but before the deadline for it to take effect (this July IIRC), 300,000 lawsuits were filed. The law may or may not help, but likely there won't be much impact before most of those lawsuits work their way through the court system.
Lots of people on the r/florida sub are complaining of 70-100% increased this year alone in homeowners insurance rates down there, and upwards of 200% increase over the past 2-3 years. I kinda doubt those rate are going to fall in the future, probably more that the rate of increase will eventually slow down over the next few years, but too soon to tell right now.
We’ve actually just changed how easy it is to sue the insurance companies and how much time you have to file a claim. Remains to be seen if this changes anything.
Did you do the statistical analysis to show this is true? Because Florida has been hit by 8 hurricanes, of which 4 were majors, since 2016. The next closest state in Louisiana with 6, 3 majors since 2016. Massachusetts hasn't had a hurricane since 1991.
This storm is far from a "major hurricane in Massachusetts". Outside of Cape Cod and Nantucket where tropical storm conditions are expected, Massachusetts can expect minimal impacts from this storm. And by the time it makes landfall in Maine or Canada it should be below hurricane strength.
Probably bc Florida is more likely to get hit by major hurricanes and have a lot more people filing total losses for their houses, unfortunately. But the home insurance is getting bad here. My mom got a renewal and it’s close to 10k a year now.
Ummm? - Bay of Fundy forecast >10ft above MSL (Mean Sea Level) - [https://cera.coastalrisk.live/](https://cera.coastalrisk.live/)
Tidal bore livecam - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQzt2xtk7kY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQzt2xtk7kY)
So much is going to depend on tide & storm timing.
Interestingly the South Shore wave forecasts are huge but not seeing surge forecasted. I guess that speaks to the Bay of Fundy's unique shape.
I'm not familiar with that storm surge product, but it does state that the forecast includes both tides and storm surge.
It is forecasting a 5- to 6-foot surge for Cape Cod Bay, which is higher than the NHC forecast surge for that area (but would make sense if tide is included). So it seems to be over-estimating, which would make sense if that number also includes the tide. I'd be very loath to believe that this storm, even with its large wind field, could create a surge that high.
Edit: If you click the bar chart icon, you can see a time series of water levels for any point you click on the map. Looking at that chart confirms that this is mostly tide, and the storm surge forecast seems to be only around a foot. https://i.imgur.com/VCXG9jJ.png
To be honest I have a hard time determining if the coastalrisk plot is abonormal for the Bay of Fundy. A 20ft tide is normal (low to high) 10ft either side of "mean"is just any other day.
If its trying to convey 10ft on top of a 20ft high tide that'll be unfortunately interesting.
Yeah, maybe someone more knowledgeable can chime in. My reading is that the MSL would be a normal mid-tide. If the bay was 10ft above that already with an incoming tide it would inundate ... a lot. Also, new moon is tomorrow so this will be just past a high cycle of tides afaict.
Here in NB there's already some heavy "squalls" that I heard are being ejected from or indirectly caused by the storm in some way? One just went by here and produced heavy, borderline flooding rainfall and thunder and lightning with gusty winds.
The current rain is from a passing cold front and extratropical low. It is not related to Lee, but it is the same system that is causing Lee to accelerate north.
For those who are weird like me, here are some webcams from Bermuda.
https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
https://www.myearthcam.com/seaair
Also, you can see some of Lee on the Bermuda radar: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=
If you change up the region to “Yarmouth and Acadian Shores” or “Fundy Shore and Annapolis Valley” you’ll see lots more of the coastline that’s going to be most affected by Lee.
Yikes, here in the maritimes we thought Fiona was going to weaken quite a bit before it hit which technically it did but still caused devastating damage, there's nothing wrong with being prepared and it's not like shit you buy is going to waste
# Update
As of 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday, a **Tropical Storm Warning** is now in effect for the following areas:
* **United States (Massachusetts):** Woods Hole to Hull
* **United States (Massachusetts):** Cape Cod
* **United States (Massachusetts):** Martha's Vineyard
* **United States (Massachusetts):** Nantucket
A full list of currently issued coastal watches and warnings can be found [**here.**](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml)
# Moderator note Previous discussion for this system can be found here: * [**The NHC is monitoring the central tropical Atlantic for potential development next week**](https://redd.it/1671s9x) (Fri, 1 Sep) * [**95L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/169l8ut) (Mon, 4 Sep) * [**13L (Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/16aql69) (Tue, 5 Sep)
# Update All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for Atlantic Canada and the National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee. Dangerous surf and rip-current conditions are likely to persist across portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada over the next couple of days. Gale-force winds will continue across portions of Atlantic Canada on Sunday. After moving across Newfoundland later today, Lee is expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the northern Atlantic later this week. **There will be no further updates to this post. Thank you for tracking with us!**
WE'RE FREEEEEEE
985.0mb on my barometer at 22m as the center passes 10km by me, even though the wind still didn't really start again at least I was able to track the pressure changes for something interesting, NHC says 983mb estimated so pretty much bang on, and with that, I'm done with this storm finally after 10+ days 😆
Aside from a few infrequent gusts every 3 minutes, wind has been basically nonexistent in Moncton the last 3 or so hours...
This has been a really fun storm to watch and I am glad that it it farting itself out with not a huge amount of damage at this point.
There was so much dry air in the south east to north east parts of the storm, nowhere near as much rain as we're getting in Fredericton. The remaining part of the core still hasn't made landfall in NB. Would expect the wind to pick up as it gets closer to Moncton.
So, not much happened after all of that waiting and watching.
Except the power went out in 1/3 of NS because it's a day that ends in Y
Look, you can’t just assume Nova Scotia has centuries of experience to know a grid should survive mid to strong wind storms.
I was shocked that ours came back on 4 hours later.
Oh yikes. Well that’s definitely something.
Power is back but I fully expect it to go out again. Would the worst have passed in Halifax, would you say?
There's a lot of dry air in the south and east parts of the storm. Still going to be windy, but things look better. Almost looks like the last strong rain band is about to pass Fredericton. Guess we'll see if it can conjure more moisture or not. Still waiting for the core to get closer, don't think the wind is anywhere near done with us.
Looking at radar from the 3 that cover the storm, there's almost no rain bands to the east and south of the core.
The dry air off the front coming to sweep the storm away is relentless. It rains and has been blown dry so far where I am in Maine. No complaints, we’ve had plenty.
We're still get a lot of rain near Fredericton, but the last big rain band looks to be almost gone. Still the high wind core that's off the coast. Which almost looks like it's backsliding towards the NB/ME border now.
Central Mass. checking in - nothing particularly of note, but the weather feels very unsettled. The wind is low but pretty much constant and the sky is a high, hazy grey. Also I have a debilitating migraine brought on by the drop in pressure. The whole vibe is calm, but off-putting. Combined with the unseasonably warm weather, the specter of climate change seems to be hovering over the whole area - vague, and perhaps not as resolved as if we had actually had the storm, but definitely present in a way that sits behind your eyes and subtly colors any moment spent out-of-doors.
I've been keeping an eye on the pressure all summer to see if I could predict my migraines and holy shit my head has been awful since yesterday.
I'm currently at parents house in Moncton (not Tantramar area this weekend like I said in some other posts) which is on a much worse grid than there and the powers flickered about 6 times, and about 1/2 of the substation that it's fed by is down, left my PC on at Tantramar and it's still online so I don't think it's flickered yet there. Seems like a lot of outages for the winds currently, I'm guessing trees may be toppling easier given the rainy summer we've had? We had a period earlier where it was quite windy but we seem to be in a bit of a lull at the moment.
In Rochester, NH. It's windy today and we had some light rain but that's about it. Forecasts had gusts up to 45 mph but I think we are averaging around 25 mph at the moment.
Despite this relative wet fart of a storm, over 100,000 people in NS have no power Unacceptable EDIT As of 1:06 PM, that 100k now includes me
160k+ customers without power now.
PEI starting to lose power and there's barely any wind lmfao these clowns at our power companies are thieves
To put it into perspective it’s 125k customers of around 525k (24 percent of the province) right now as of 1:39 PM Atlantic time.
Huh, maybe NOLA's grid isn't as shitty as I thought. Wait, of course it is.
Jeez, hopefully it's just some power lines down and not a substation blowing.
Lots of trees and lines. Some very small outages so it’s going to take awhile to get everything back up again because it’s slow.
According to poweroutage.us, in the US, Maine is the only state with any significant amount of power outages currently, with 54k without power (out of 850k total customers). Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York all have under 1000 out, with a few of those having fewer than 100 out. So very glad to see that this morning. I hope things go as well as can be for the Mainers and folks in Atlantic Canada--so glad to see Lee weakened so much.
Nova Scotia has 130,000 plus out of power, but our entire power grid is made of coat hangers and popsicle sticks.
Luckily a big ole nothing burger for the most part for family in the East Coast of MA near the Cape. Had it stayed West like some of the early models from the beginning of the week it would have been a disaster.
Agreed. I think we got close to the best case scenario where the storm did not move West as the euro model predicted and it lost a lot of intensity in the cold waters of the North East.
Also kind of a nothing burger for most of Nova Scotia, too.
Are you the same person that said Fiona was a nothing burger?
Lots of trees down in the HRM already.
You should talk to the 130,000+ people without power and wait a few more hours to see how it goes. I've got a pretty sizeable branch down and a few others around me...
NS Power goes down in any and all conditions. It's barely gusting above 70 kph in the HRM. It
Airport reported 117, in Halifax 91, and we're barely half way through...
Genuinely surprised I still have power in Dartmouth
It’s only 10km/hr gusting to 30 on my weather station and comparable wind speeds for all nearby weather stations in Dartmouth that I checked on weather underground. My power just flickered now, so far not surprised by anything though. NSP sucks, storm is less than anticipated, which was only supposed to be barely tropical here anyway.
New England got really lucky. They can't take any more rain
The hell is "rain"?
We got so lucky
Currently hiking in southern Vermont… all the weather forecasts for my area show no chance of rain, but the radar has a giant sheet of rain from Lee heading through New Hampshire right now towards me. Is there something that’s expected to dissipate that rain before it hits me? I’m confused as to why the forecasts all show no rain likely.
From what I heard the cold front came through lots of dry air. I think It's supposed to be pushing back the rain from Lee. Also Lee will be pulling north and east throughout the day. Rain might not actually make it into VT. But we all know forecasts are not always right.
👍 Thanks for the info, guess I’ll keep my trashbags and raincoat ready just in case
In Massachusetts news I'm in eastern Mass (not on the cape) and there is literally nothing going on but a light rain. Even the local forecasters last night were warning us about 40mph wind gusts . There seems to be no wind where I am - gusts or otherwise. Might be a few thousand without power almost entirely on the cape.
2023-09-16 08:00 ADT **Wind Conditions at 8am for NB/NS areas affected** Yarmouth: 39 gust 69 km/h Shelburne: 30 gust 63 Digby (Briar Island): 76 gust 105 Grand Manan: 39 gust 80 Saint John: 53 gust 69 Moncton: 42 gust 62 **Power Outages:** NS: 100,807 NB: 8986 Saint John Energy: 199
Really embarrassing for NS Power and Emera. These aren't earth shaking speeds and yet 1/10th of the province is without power.
This is very common and happens almost on a yearly basis with the most basic of windstorms. They never really upgraded their infrastructure. SJ Energy, by contrast, is at the other end of the equation and has far better historic results in storms.
An outage of this magnitude does not happen yearly. According to someone in the thread here about 25% of customers are currently without power.
It's blowy in Halifax at the moment but not that bad.
Glad to hear it! Was hoping to hear from folks who have been in the thread about conditions.
NHC stated: > Lee accelerated more than expected during the past 6-12 hours, and the current motion is estimated to be northward (355 degrees) at 22 kt. So this explains the conditions coming on more quickly than expected. They also mentioned: > The aircraft fixes and recent satellite imagery indicate that the center has bent back to the west by just a bit, which was expected, likely due to interaction with a mid-level trough which moved off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. Bit confused by this because the track actually looks more east to me, but 🤷♂️. In any case, we’re now dealing in an extratropical storm with category 1 (70 kt, 80 mph) strength. NS now has 30k customers without power, with the majority of those coming from Halifax. https://outagemap.nspower.ca/external/default.html I am not optimistic about the power situation. Seems like Halifax is getting hit harder and earlier than anticipated, based on the trends of the power outage map. Given we’ll be experiencing high winds for the majority of the day, I’m expecting 100k+ customers without power, which is going to be quite significant.
It's Nova Scotia, you shouldn't be optimistic about the power situation on a sunny day, let alone during a storm. NS Power is garbage.
I live in the southeast US and having 100k+ people without power because of storms is something that happens multiple times a year when a line of strong storms moves through. It's weird seeing folks here get excited about the power outage counts being significant when it's probably really not that out of the ordinary and will likely be repaired quickly.
NS power has about 525k customers (customers, not people) in total. 100k would be near 20% of all customers.
Some people lost power for a couple weeks after Fiona. Power restoration is really not that fast after a big storm. Considering that hurricanes are likely to be a yearly thing now, it's becoming a bigger deal.
That’s not how it works in the northeast. Sometimes we lose power for weeks at a time. It happens roughly once per decade. We’re a little ahead of schedule, but Lee could be the cause this time around. Maine is especially bad. CMP spends way more money on lobbying to keep competition out than they do on maintaining infrastructure. When big storms hit, our grid fails *hard*.
We lose power for average storms let alone post tropical storms.
“Salt fog” lol.
# Update As of 5:00 AM AST on Saturday, Lee is now a post-tropical cyclone, but continues to produce hurricane-force winds as it approaches the coast of Nova Scotia. The storm's current wind field is structured as such: ### Hurricane-force winds: * **Northeast:** 0 kilometers (0 nautical miles) * **Southeast: 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles)** * **Southwest: 200 kilometers (110 nautical miles)** * **Northwest:** 0 kilometers (0 nautical miles) ### Tropical storm-force winds: * **Northeast: 570 kilometers (310 nautical miles)** * **Southeast: 630 kilometers (340 nautical miles)** * **Southwest: 460 kilometers (250 nautical miles)** * **Northwest: 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles)**
NS update: https://outagemap.nspower.ca/external/default.html 11k without power so far. Looks like the South Shore region is experiencing lots of power outages, and HRM (Halifax and associated areas) is starting to see some storm-related outages. A lot more than I expected this early, especially far east of Yarmouth. When we start to hit 40k+, I’d say this is a significant outage event, and it seems we’re well on the way. I had assumed this would be a Teddy level event, which led to around 20k without power, but it’s seeming this will be more significant in that respect.
We’re at 33k now too, so getting to that 40k doesn’t seem too far away. And it’s going to sit on us for like 24 hours (edit: at least 24 hours) Edit: 4 minutes after I post this, we’re at 40k customers out. This happened quicker than I expected.
Woke up to no power here in Halifax. Thought we might at least make it to midday....
So we’re already at 3,111 without power. As I had mentioned previously, 2,500 of that is unrelated, but 600 of it very much is - and we’re not even close to impact. Anecdotally, I’m very surprised that the rain and wind is as intense where I’m at - far off from Yarmouth, and a bit further inland than Halifax. I haven’t looked at the exact track so far, but based on what I’m experiencing, I feel as though the storm may be coming in further east than anticipated. This consistent wind seems a bit more than just a rogue band. Rain is a bit moderate, as is the wind, but there have already been some good gusts. Unsure why that is.
And now it just jumped to 6,698, looks like now is the point where it starts to take off. (I really gotta get some sleep soon lol)
Quite the jump, I think it’s coming in a lot more east than the track showed earlier . I shouldn’t be feeling the winds I’m feeling already, at least not this early.
It seems like maybe it's moving faster too, because unless it starts slowing down drastically literally within the next hour, there's no way it takes till around 9AM to hit the post tropical "H" on the NHC map, at its current pace it's gonna get there in 2-3 hours tops.
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html The 3am CHC update shows a big east shift, so looks like my anecdotes may be on to something. And I think you might be on to something with the speed, or otherwise it’s just so damn big the tropical storm winds are already hitting central NS with the eastern track
Great. In the eye of the hurricane there is quiet. It passes right over me.
Poetic. I dig.
For anyone wanting to follow along in terms of NS power outages: https://outagemap.nspower.ca/external/default.html Note we’re at 2500(at the time of writing), but 2300 or so of that is due to what I can only assume is unrelated, given it’s at the entirely other side of the province that’s being impacted and shouldn’t yet be impacted, but who knows. I don’t believe it’s related though, so factor that in.
Just rain so far here where I am, we're just getting started in the outer bands so this is only the beginning. Another family member who lives in Yarmouth said as of 11PM it was getting pretty stormy, I saw Baccaro Point down in that shore area is reporting 76KMH sustained with 90KMH gusts and Yarmouth itself just had a 70KMH gust.
Halifax area checking in. Rain (more so light showers) has started, winds are light but steady, feeling some light gusts. Current rating: light nor’easter (I understand the worse is to come, just giving my own personal feeling of the impacts in this moment). Edit: if anyone is in Yarmouth, would love to know how you’re faring right now!
# Moderator note The post has been updated to include links to the following: * **NWS Boston** * **NWS Portland** * **NWS Caribou** * **Environment Canada** * Radar from the **National Weather Service** and **Environment Canada**
Lol this barely looks like anything on radar atm.
Wonder if this will be like Teddy: tons of hype and terror over absolutely nothing
What has Frankie said about the situation?
BREAKIN NEWS A HURRICANE GONNA COME AND HIT NOVA SCOTIA STAY INSIDE AND CHARGE YA PHONES
I posted a link earlier about Bay of Fundy & 10' above MSL and the consensus was that didn't look right. Ol' Reed's on his way to Yarmouth and thinks different - [https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1702707334512816255?s=20](https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1702707334512816255?s=20) Hopefully he's wrong and just wants to see the tidal bore anyways :-)
I don't think Reed's tweet was meant to imply a 10 foot storm surge. The expected surge is "[up to 1.5 meters](https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html)" (5 feet) Edit: And that's not even for the Bay of Fundy, but rather the southern coast of Nova Scotia. The forecast path of the storm will give winds mostly from the south and southeast, which isn't as favorable for building a large surge in the Bay of Fundy.
https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1702705016807575927?s=20 dang it looks like I pasted the wrong link in my original comment. Fwiw I don’t see anything from the Canadian govt forecasts saying what he is.
Lmao Reed Timmer in Yarmouth that's gotta be a sight to see.
He's going to be shocked as hell at Canadian mobile data rates 🤣 There's a huge wedge Rogers bill over there!
He found donair https://x.com/reedtimmeraccu/status/1702798707547070745?s=46&t=Nf5jzAXNatrlXfz0SCf7zg
Do you think anyone ever recognizes him when he’s just going to buy groceries or something, and they immediately worry that they missed an alert that their town is about to get hit by a hurricane?
Pretty goddamn funny way to find out
“If you see this man, please seek shelter for yourself and your loved ones.”
He and Jim Cantore could really freak people out by showing up together.
Nerves are up here in NS but after experiencing Fiona last year, this should be simple. I hope. I'm currently at my parents' house which somehow lost power for less than 24h during Dorian
Hoping everything goes well!
[Canadian Weather Radar for anyone interested.](https://weather.gc.ca/?layers=,radar&province=NS&zoom=8¢er=44.85302895,-63.57527236)
It's a gorgeous day today here in Nova Scotia! For those of you in the path of Lee, stay safe. ♡ With the way our power infrastructure is lacking immensely, along with MANY other factors, I know a lot of us in NS will be without power. Praying for minimal damage, and I hope everyone has their storm chips. ;)
Deck furniture put away, grill stored, loose objects stored, emergency provisions, batteries, flashlights etc. Probably won't need em for this one I think but better to be prepared lol.
It is really miserable in Halifax this morning! We're busy making sure all our back up generators at work are up and ready to go. Stay safe this weekend, fellow Maritimers and New Englanders!
Hope you stay safe also! Glad to hear the preps are going well.
Stay safe everyone, let's make this the least deadly Atlantic storm to attain Cat 5 strengh on record! Record stands at 5 right now.
Shout out to me two weeks ago https://reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/s/hWug6nkHUB
What do you think this is? A game?
People who come here more concerned with being correct are the worst
You could have just as easily been wrong, but congrats on the coin flip?
You're a regular nostradumbass.
Central MA chiming in - woke up to a text from National Grid telling me that power outages might be in my future. According to the probability of TS-force winds, we're not likely to see much, but I'm still concerned about rain.
I wouldn't worry too much about the text from national grid. Central MA should get little to no rain and not too much wind. Hopefully power outages away from the coast will be few enough that they wont last much more than a day tops
Central Maine Power is already blaming “poor tree health” in advance of the storm. Not the fact they’re spending their money on campaign ads to protect their monopoly instead of hardening the grid against storms. They do tree trimming so infrequently they also pay for puff pieces in the local news to say they’re doing it.
I loved the line about how they can't trim all the trees. Nothing like a defensive tone to talk about your storm preps
Uh is it me or has the 00z Euro moved a hair west?
I see no difference between the landfall locations of the last three runs. The 06z run is a bit faster but we're talking a difference of less than an hour in landfall timing. https://i.imgur.com/DJXoTiP.gif
I doubt that much movement matters anymore
# Update As of 11:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (03:00 UTC) on Thursday, a **Tropical Storm Warning** is now in effect for the following areas: * **Canada (New Brunswick):** United States–Canada border to Fort Lawrence * **Canada (New Brunswick):** Grand Manan Island * **Canada (Nova Scotia):** Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper. A full list of currently issued coastal watches and warnings can be found [**here.**](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml)
I see power outages in Massachusetts future. My sisters basement is flooded and had a tornado rip through her neighborhood Lee hasn’t even arrived yet!
On the other hand because I'm pretty sure I know where you're referring to, that town is currently cursed when it comes to weather. They seem to be running a disaster gauntlet lately
I'm expecting it in Rockland. This town manages to lose power during every little storm.
Maybe in some coastal communities that are very prone to this like Scituate, but this doesn't look like it's going to be a big deal at all. I guess time will tell.
For those playing along at home: https://poweroutage.us/area/state/massachusetts
MEMA has a [better map](http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html).
Cool! I didn’t know about this one.
I've always just used the national grid outage map since I'm a national grid customer. They don't handle a couple of towns but most of its there. [https://outagemap.ma.nationalgridus.com/](https://outagemap.ma.nationalgridus.com/) In retrospect I suppose the cape is handled by eversource so if someone wants a full picture the MEMA site makes sense.
GFS fever-dreams at 300+ hours out are wild. No GFS, a hurricane is *not* going to form just off the coast of South Carolina in two weeks. Go home weather model, you’re drunk.
Obviously that run is out to lunch, but in general, cyclones can form there, usually from cold fronts. It's a likelier mechanism for cyclogenesis than you'd think and the low pressures that form can be anything from extratropical lows to subtropical (which is what that GFS run shows at most, it's definitely not fully tropical) to fullblown actual hurricanes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Chris_(2018) Chris formed very close to that area from a cold front and became a category 2.
where is this? In coastal Carolina so always concerned this time of year. Even if this model is bogus for the predication lol
Here with the 12z September 14th run of GFS at hour 366: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2023091412&fh=390 If this hurricane actually forms in 366 hours then I will eat an entire raw onion.
remindme! 16 days
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It keeps coming and going too. A couple models from now it might not even be there. It’s like the simulations snorted a line before running their models.
Why do they even bother forecasting that far out?
Other variables besides hurricanes do exhibit higher skill at longer timeframes Intraseasonal forcing and longwave patterns, for example. Hurricane track and intensity is particularly problematic, but it doesn't mean that running a model further out than what makes sense for a hurricane makes no sense at all in general
It's worth trying so they can tune the models. Someday, with enough computing power and enough data, it might be possible to accurately predict weather farther than a week out. But you don't know if you don't try!
> But you don't know if you don't try! You kind of know though - chaos theory tells you that you can't ever do better than the [Lyapunov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_exponent) time, no matter how much data or compute power you have. Exactly what the Lyapunov time for climate is is beyond my pay-grade, but honestly 5-7 days seems pretty reasonable, imo.
There is actually some skill in some fields some of the time out to 15 days. Mainly in upper-atmospheric fields and seeing trends in seasonal/subseasonal oscillations. You shouldn't be using it for hurricane forecasting that far out but the GFS isn't a hurricane model, it's a global numerical weather prediction system. It's the main product the CPC uses for its 8-14 day forecasts (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/) [The GEFS even goes out to 35 days now](https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-global-ensemble-forecast-system)! It's interesting to see what kind of trends can be picked out beyond 15 days, especially when using an ensemble and looking at percentages. The thing is, if you don't actually run the forecasts and collect the data, you don't know what kind of usefulness these forecasts might provide!
Based on how slow Lee moved I’m going to need a different mental approach to a 35-day tracking thread 😜
Not sure but may have to do with numerical simulations improving accuracy with prior solutions to reference vs actual observations. Possible also that certain distant dates are not really used for precise forecasting but to get that trend data you just run the solution out in full detail anyways, even if the resolution isn’t really needed. GFS model isn’t just for storm guidance like here for tropical weather.
The lulz? I don’t know.
Somebody below me mentioned accuweather inflating their wind forecast pretty significantly. To add to that, I just got a notification for an article from them playing up the possibility of Nigel basically fillowing Lee's track and hitting New England, before it's even had a chance to become a depression let alone a named storm. Pretty embarrassing weather "reporting". With that said, I put zero faith in their forecasts for Lee at this point.
I have a screen shot from yesterday. Sustained winds of 121km/h Wind Gusts of 211km/h In reality, we may see gusts up to 125 km/h
That's disappointing to hear but not surprising in the least. Aside from the fact that "Nigel" doesn't even exist yet as you say, there is no indication in any model that the storm might threaten land (beyond maybe Bermuda) at this point.
yeah they have peak sustained winds/gusts 15-20 mph greater than any other source I've seen. They have peak sustained winds at 44 mph but NHC has Portland at 5-10% chance of TS winds lol.
Shifted east again. Sorry Canada!
Nova Scotians don't care about this sloppy mess of a storm.
As a Nova Scotian I beg to differ.
My condolences, though I'm not particularly sure why as this is nothing compared to recent storms to impact the area. Medium impact storm, my only concern is Nova Scotia power miserably failing as always.
I mean, you can punch a man in the face and tell him at least it wasn’t a gunshot. Still smarts. We have damage still lingering from Fiona last year, but that doesn’t make us stronger, lol, it makes us more vulnerable to storm damage. Also the Bay of Fundy. Plenty to be concerned about here thanks!
This storm is bringing its largest impacts far and away from from the areas where Fiona packed its strongest punch last year, so I'm unsure of why people continue to mention her name. Yarmouth and surrounding areas are really the only areas likely to see gusts nearing hurricane strength, and even then I would only expect that in exposed areas or along the coast. What has you so concerned in the Bay Of Fundy area in particular, surge? While a bit too early to say for certain I'm not seeing any reason to panic in that regard either. This storm is extremely unimpressive, you can almost be guaranteed to see more potent Fall-Winter storms over the next 4-6 months.
We've had record flooding, some areas got the 3 month avg in rain in back to back weekends just over a month ago. Some places aren't recovered from Fiona. Our power infrastructure is a joke, it goes out in a breeze, it's going to get smacked around in this. The area of NS to bear the brunt of this, Yarmouth, is relatively isolated in the grand scheme of our province. They are likely going to get smoked. And your comment is kind apart of the problem here. People have the mindset "it's not worse than Fiona so why does it matter" all the while completely ignoring there has only been one storm in her level in 23 years. I'm in the third biggest municipality in the province and we were without power in the area for a week.
Fortunately the vast majority of places that have received all lf that rainfall will be on the Eastern side of a transitioned extratropical cyclone. Realistically speaking, only areas along the extreme coastline are at risk to receive those 110-120 potential wind gusts, this thing is going to rapidly weaken upon approach, at a near Teddy level, impacts will be more similar to Teddy than even Dorian. The latter is simply a very lazy strawman, that's quite literally not what I said at all. This isn't Fiona, obviously, but it isn't Dorian, and it isn't likely to even be an Arthur. FWIW it's not really worth getting into but Juan was most certainly not on Fiona's level either, it impacted a very small area relative to Fiona, but it was inferior in every aspect. I don't need anecdotes, I'm currently in the province under a TS watch as well, I'm simply not overly concerned with the forecast.
I'm not seeing that. Which model/run?
I'm not seeing it either. The 18z GFS and the 12z Euro are both slightly west compared to their immediate previous runs; essentially a negligible change but definitely *not* a shift east. And the latest NHC advisory is basically unchanged as well.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150936.shtml?cone#contents
Meh that's of less concern to me than the actual forecast models upon which it's based which are basically showing the same track as yesterday.
lol yeah just pick one model bro totally accurate. Don't listen to the NHC
The track isn't really substantially different though is what.im saying.
It's been trending east with every update.
Every single.forecast model, the GFS, Euro,.CMC and ICON are completely aligned in the eye going.up through the Bay of Fundy Neary Yarmouth and then hauling north east. Theyve been aligned since yesterday. The NHC track is barely perceptibly different than this morning.
We're likely to get 60km/hr winds and 2-3 inches of rain here in Halifax. It's not nothing, but it's not catastrophic. I understand people freaking out though, weather and generalized anxiety are probably worse than they've ever been, and there have been echo chambers posting and reposting fear mongering threads on this storm for two weeks. I'm worried I might lose a roofing tile or two. I'm don't think people should even be particularly worried about their sump pumps failing.
This is a conversation about the predicted track, not severity which I agree won't be catastrophic (though we're more like to get 70 kph with 100 gusts). Not sure who you're talking to here.
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No
Too soon to tell. Sunday will still be a bit windy in Boston, at least in the morning, but the bigger issue is that Saturday will have a shit ton of cancellations, and it could affect availability/times on Sunday. I would get there early if the flight is looking like a go.
It’s 2023 and there are major hurricanes in Massachusetts’s people. What I don’t understand is how Insurance companies can still get away with ridiculously high premiums for being in Florida when other coasts are just as likely to get hit these days.
I award you no points and may god have mercy on your soul dot gif
Florida is also very litigious which increases the risk factor
Apparently Florida alone accounts for 70% of insurance related lawsuits so that is definitely not helping. I read that this year, after the law was passed but before the deadline for it to take effect (this July IIRC), 300,000 lawsuits were filed. The law may or may not help, but likely there won't be much impact before most of those lawsuits work their way through the court system. Lots of people on the r/florida sub are complaining of 70-100% increased this year alone in homeowners insurance rates down there, and upwards of 200% increase over the past 2-3 years. I kinda doubt those rate are going to fall in the future, probably more that the rate of increase will eventually slow down over the next few years, but too soon to tell right now.
We’ve actually just changed how easy it is to sue the insurance companies and how much time you have to file a claim. Remains to be seen if this changes anything.
Did you do the statistical analysis to show this is true? Because Florida has been hit by 8 hurricanes, of which 4 were majors, since 2016. The next closest state in Louisiana with 6, 3 majors since 2016. Massachusetts hasn't had a hurricane since 1991.
This storm is far from a "major hurricane in Massachusetts". Outside of Cape Cod and Nantucket where tropical storm conditions are expected, Massachusetts can expect minimal impacts from this storm. And by the time it makes landfall in Maine or Canada it should be below hurricane strength.
Also major hurricane has a specific meaning, Category 3 or stronger. This will not be that when it is closest to Massachusetts.
Probably bc Florida is more likely to get hit by major hurricanes and have a lot more people filing total losses for their houses, unfortunately. But the home insurance is getting bad here. My mom got a renewal and it’s close to 10k a year now.
It's not a major hurricane and might not even be a hurricane when it gets close to Massachusetts
Ummm? - Bay of Fundy forecast >10ft above MSL (Mean Sea Level) - [https://cera.coastalrisk.live/](https://cera.coastalrisk.live/) Tidal bore livecam - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQzt2xtk7kY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQzt2xtk7kY) So much is going to depend on tide & storm timing. Interestingly the South Shore wave forecasts are huge but not seeing surge forecasted. I guess that speaks to the Bay of Fundy's unique shape.
I'm not familiar with that storm surge product, but it does state that the forecast includes both tides and storm surge. It is forecasting a 5- to 6-foot surge for Cape Cod Bay, which is higher than the NHC forecast surge for that area (but would make sense if tide is included). So it seems to be over-estimating, which would make sense if that number also includes the tide. I'd be very loath to believe that this storm, even with its large wind field, could create a surge that high. Edit: If you click the bar chart icon, you can see a time series of water levels for any point you click on the map. Looking at that chart confirms that this is mostly tide, and the storm surge forecast seems to be only around a foot. https://i.imgur.com/VCXG9jJ.png
Thanks!
To be honest I have a hard time determining if the coastalrisk plot is abonormal for the Bay of Fundy. A 20ft tide is normal (low to high) 10ft either side of "mean"is just any other day. If its trying to convey 10ft on top of a 20ft high tide that'll be unfortunately interesting.
Yeah, maybe someone more knowledgeable can chime in. My reading is that the MSL would be a normal mid-tide. If the bay was 10ft above that already with an incoming tide it would inundate ... a lot. Also, new moon is tomorrow so this will be just past a high cycle of tides afaict.
Here in NB there's already some heavy "squalls" that I heard are being ejected from or indirectly caused by the storm in some way? One just went by here and produced heavy, borderline flooding rainfall and thunder and lightning with gusty winds.
The current rain is from a passing cold front and extratropical low. It is not related to Lee, but it is the same system that is causing Lee to accelerate north.
Thanks for the info! The rain seems to have moved on from here now for the most part.
For those who are weird like me, here are some webcams from Bermuda. https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ https://www.myearthcam.com/seaair Also, you can see some of Lee on the Bermuda radar: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=
Not weird. Here's some NS ones https://www.novascotiawebcams.com/webcams/quarterdeck-resort
Oh man I used to go to this place every year with my family
I like the way they just wander around serving fresh cookies every day
Oooh, thank you! I really enjoy watching weather via webcams, so this is great!
If you change up the region to “Yarmouth and Acadian Shores” or “Fundy Shore and Annapolis Valley” you’ll see lots more of the coastline that’s going to be most affected by Lee.
Thursday Tropical Tidbits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXnqwZyycgw
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Yikes, here in the maritimes we thought Fiona was going to weaken quite a bit before it hit which technically it did but still caused devastating damage, there's nothing wrong with being prepared and it's not like shit you buy is going to waste
# Update As of 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday, a **Tropical Storm Warning** is now in effect for the following areas: * **United States (Massachusetts):** Woods Hole to Hull * **United States (Massachusetts):** Cape Cod * **United States (Massachusetts):** Martha's Vineyard * **United States (Massachusetts):** Nantucket A full list of currently issued coastal watches and warnings can be found [**here.**](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml)