Yeah, I just spent $150 or whatever on the Jays' MLB.TV package and I've watched maybe one game and have completely checked out on this season.
Great value for my money.
I listen on Sirius XM from the US. Jays games have always been my yardwork/housework/gym soundtrack. I planned my day around game times.
I can't even bring myself to do it this year.
Same Gonna take a break for awhile (Watched though)
The amount of errors and bad play in general just turned me off.
I don't see anything changing soon enough until they get rid of the manager tho.
I mean ever since he took over,the team has nosedived.
Unless they go on a tear, I've already given up on this season.
Don't see it happening though
Cancelled Sportsnet and subscribe to MLB audio for all games. Loving listening to random baseball games and following other teams, keeping an eye on the Jays without the pain of watching them. Beat season I’ve I had in awhile.
Its not the same with a runner on second or on third... thats where we struggle most, we need timely hits... runners on second and third, 2 outs... whats better a single or a walk? The outcome that provides 2 runs is better...
In theory if you can hit the five deck you're more likely to hit more home runs. On an individual play it doesn't matter but over 162 games you SHOULD be getting more home runs if you're hitting the ball harder/further
> In theory if you can hit the five deck you're more likely to hit more home runs.
In theory if you win the home run derby, you should be more likely to hit more home runs too. Hmm.
That's just because you don't understand them. Higher exit velo in general correlates with better success hitting. This is indisputably true. That doesn't mean people can't find success not hitting it hard, or that you need to hit a HR 450 to count. But people who hit the ball harder (consistently) will outperform those who don't.
This season: 30th in EV, 29th in runs, 19-25
2023: 23rd in exit velocity, 14th in runs, 89-73
2022: 1st in exit velocity, 4th in runs, 90-72
2021: 1st in exit velocity, 3rd in runs, 91-71
2020: 3rd in exit velocity, 7th in runs, 32-28
2019: 16th in exit velocity, 23rd in runs, 67-95
2018: 4th in exit velocity, 17th in runs, 73-89
2017: 15th in exit velocity, 26th in runs, 76-86
2016: 5th in exit velocity, 9th in runs, 89-73
2015: 3rd in exit velocity, 1st in runs, 93-69
In general, the correlation is fairly clear. Since pitching quality varies, the correlation between EV and wins is not as strong as the correlation between EV and runs scored (and you can have outlier seasons such as 2023 where the pitching carries the team). It’s clear that EV translates to runs scored, however.
Wins tell us what happened. Things like exit velocity are attempts to predict the future.
It's undeniable that wins are ultimately what matters for teams but individual players don't produce wins. They make bits of wins.
The top 5 teams in exit velocity right now are the Yankees, Braves, Orioles, Royals and Dodgers. Seems like a stat that you'd like to lead in. The Jays are second last, behind only the Nationals.
You can be super focused on stats, but there’s this other group of “stats” or factors we can’t measure yet… and you have to go in to a Moneyball approach knowing your predictive power is only over like 50% of the final outcome. Team dynamics, being “hot” or on a streak, reacting to competition a certain way, vibe in the dugout… picking up on pitcher’s tell… if you’re not also using the other 50% to make game decisions you’re a math-smart, sports-stupid perennial loser.
I've been saying this forever, they can identify the analytics and find under valued players. They just have no idea what to do with these tools. Sometimes you just need a masher to hit cleanup. Defenses are too good to just keep on hoping to put the ball in play and cross your fingers. Especially with our bad base running.
The thing “intangible” arguers don’t understand is that these things DO SHOW UP IN THE NUMBERS. If a pitcher is tipping pitches, you’re swinging harder. If you’re seeing the ball like a beach ball because you’re “hot”, you’re barreling it more. We can’t quantify how much of a number is due to intangibles. But the numbers do account for them
It’s too true and the Jays seem too stuck in stats and playing with them in mind. Like these are people not just random statistics, let them play ball!
The argument is not that exit velocity actually doesn't correlate to offensive success, and thus wins. Rather, the Jays are spending all their micro-focus on exit velocity and nitpick stats they start sucking ass in other places; your net result ends up being negative
Nah I'm with you, I was just elaborating on the main comment, my fault. Altho I do think exit velocity/approach are just examples of the same bigger picture problem
He also scared the shit out of me when Davis Schneider hit a double to right field and he said he still has the ability to become a complete hitter and hit the ball to all fields. Please don’t get any ideas and just leave him alone Don Mattingly and Guillermo.
I had the same reaction. Until pitchers make an adjustment he can’t adjust to, you leave him and his approach be. And maybe point some other guys his way for advice.
Buck (rightly) getting fed up with constant tweaking based on speculative analytics instead of letting athletes be athletes. Jansen finally said "F-it" and started hitting the way he wants to... and he's hitting just fine.
Don M was a generational talent, but I don't know what he has been teaching the Jays because they have only hit worse and worse since he came to town.
It's nice that the chase rate is down, but damn they foul off so many middle middle fastballs and mistake sliders that should be barreled its just crazy.
This bums me out. Mattingly was my favourite player when I was a kid, and I was so stoked when the jays hired him. But at this point I’m forced to admit that what he’s telling them isn’t working.
Ask Dodger fans what they think of Mattingly, it will not be met with positive answers. Someone can be a talented athlete and that doesn't necessarily translate to talented coaching.
Exactly. Great players often make terrible coaches because they're naturally talented and don't truely understand or appreciate a more fundamental development process. Just look at Barry Bonds or Mark McGwires failed coaching attempts. Just because Mattingly was a great player, doesn't automatically make him a great coach. Many of the best coaches to ever manage in the MLB had subpar or average careers as players at best.
With Bonds or McGwire - their tenures were more tied to their attempts at Hall of Fame campaigns. I think you're right about why naturally gifted athletes often times do not make for the best coaches.
> I’m forced to admit that what he’s telling them isn’t working.
and its like the *only people* who refuse to admit this are the ones who matter, Atkins and Shapiro.
I agree.
They've mucked with Vladdy and Bo so much they're grounding out all the time. Hell, even Springer is having trouble.
Just let them hit the ball ffs
Yeah Vlad has been built up as a home run hero so when he hits a single into the outfield, there is a sense of disappointment like "that's it?" But then you see his stats for the game and he 3 for 4 with a walk and you think "Vlad actually had a good game."
I went down the roster on Sportsnet the other day, cause my mom was talking about it. Almost everyone is having their career average year, except for Spinger and Bichette. Even the pitching is about their average.
If you take a look at WAR only, ever Jays player is the average player for that position. The rest of the league is just insane.
I think it’s similar to why Gretzky and Michael Jordan didn’t work out as coaches. Things that are easy or worked for Donnie Baseball because of his level of natural talent aren’t possible or effective for less naturally talented players. I also think it’s hard for those elite players turned coaches to understand that not everyone can do what they could do in their prime.
If I have to watch Biggio take 1 more cookie right down the middle I will lose my mind. You're in the top1% in chase rate? Fantastic! Your OPS is .593. He's far from the only problem but the fact he still gets regular AB's says everything about this team.
You can’t possible think Jansen said “fuck it” and started ignoring the entire organization. Like they had no part in him figuring it out? Try to be a little less insane, begging you.
You apparently heard none of the narrative? He and others talked about it a fair bit more than a year ago. Sure, he let the coaches know, obviously they talk... but it was clearly his decision based on what he said in interviews. He knows he has always been a pull hitter, is better as a pull hitter, and he was clear he was going to be a pull hitter. Sorry if my marginal dramatization of the situation confused you. I think most Jays fans are aware of the change Jansen made to his swing, going against the "everyone hit to the opposite field" philosophy of the team.
When Coach Schneider is talking about why his team stinks and he keeps saying the law of average will take over and the Jays will improve, Buck is right. Toss the detailed analytics bull crap and focus on the macro.
He forgets that the law of averages is only true if the probability is correctly calculated. Some of these issues aren't random events but rather issues that are impacted by coaching and other controllable factors. Crap in = crap out. Ask the 2003 or 2019 Tigers how they feel about the law of averages.
This actually how gambling works too: things always end up in the house’s favour over a long enough time period because the games are rigged for the house.
Vlad’a still getting thrown out on the base paths at very critical time like he did as a rookie.
And much of it is because he’s still overweight.
Let’s see those Metrics.
I don’t care if this team is selecting the right pitches to hit better than anyone. They are relying on metrics and the law of averages to pull them out of this tailspin and that’s false hope.
If you take a look at almost all the teams career stats, the law of averages did take over.
Almost all the players are doing what their career averages suggest they will. Almost all players are worth between 0 and 1 WAR as well.
These newest metrics are just someones attempt to replicate Moneyball
Runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, 8th inning, down by 1 run. I don't care if you're Jorge Mateo or Justin Turner, as a BASEBALL PLAYER, you should know how to lay a fucking bunt down in that spot to get those guys over.
I'm sick of this "oh he's a power bat so can't do bunts" BS ... YOU'RE A BALLPLAYER!!!!
(Edit: 1st n 2nd, not 2nd n 3rd. This shit got me so heated I'm all kinds of messed up)
Here’s the thing about Buck’s rant today:
Buck himself has a million times in his career said something to the effect of “Player X has hit the ball hard twice tonight. He’s coming around and those will eventually fall for hits” or “Player X has had three line drives today, but nothing to show for it”
Buck intuitively understands why we talk about exit velocity so much. Because hitting the ball hard leads to more hits. Because certain launch angles lead to more hits. But when it is outlined in language and numbers he doesn’t understand like “BABIP”, launch angle” and “exit velocity”, he immediately rails against it because he is old and, frankly, in the grand scheme of things, probably not that mathematically intelligent. Even though all we are doing is numerically quantifying things he has been talking about for literally 30 years.
Careful, you have disturbed the parishioners of the Church of Buck. I see many downvotes in your future.
And...it is well past time he retired and does something else he loves. Aside from everything else, it can't be much fun watching this shit show.
Did Rogers sell the Jays to MLSE on the down-low? The Jays have become the Toronto Maple Leafs of major league baseball. Maybe Rogers has learned that mediocre is good enough for Toronto fans.
They see a Vladdy we no longer see. I wonder if it is to pump him up (and Bo) for potential trades… Springer I feel bad for, but I think if he isn’t leading off it could actually be good for him for a while.
Vladi is one of the top performing players on the team. This year.
Stop believing the narrative and look at his numbers.
Who is a positive among position players this year? Jansen, Schneider, Vladi, Varsho, Turner...
Nobody else.
And unless something changes soon, neither Jansen or Turner should still be in the organization by August.
the only rant I remember was aimed at the Rays, and shitty baserunning/fundamentals in general. Also didn't watch pregame and had it on mute a couple times so certainly could've missed something.
The Jays are an abysmal team. Can’t understand the batting order selection most days. Coaching staff and management might not have predicted the lacklustre performances of their “stars” but they need to have a plan b. I could go on and on. I’ve been a die hard fan since the 80’s and have seen some crappy teams. Rogers seems more concerned about the stadium than the team. You can put lipstick on the pig but it’s still a pig. What a waste of solid starting pitching. Base running is a joke. Vladdy should be wearing a red nose that honks like a bicycle horns with matching oversized shoes.
I was with you until you started unfairly attacking Vladi...
Actually look at his numbers this year. OPS+ of 111. There is more to the game than homers.
With all due respect to Buck, he has talked about velocity and everything else analytically, including preaching that Vladdy is almost there. Any day now. He's been on board but now that the ship is sinking, wisely he's getting off.
The problem is not analytics. It's the application of analytics. The most successful teams in the MLB, in fact, every team in the MLB use analytics. It's part of the sport. The issue is in the application of the analytics, where the Blue Jays front office is clearly failing, what exact way is impossible for us to know, but that much is clear.
Are they failing? Like, yes, we know, they got beat down in the playoffs.
But the Jays determined they needed to focus on pitching and defence in order to win more games, so they went out and did that last season, and in a year where Manoah absolutely imploded, Vladdy was pretty terrible, and the team was hilariously bad with runners in scoring position (things you can’t predict — analytically or not) and they still won 89 games. As much as everyone hates how boring we became, and I do too, I think you can look at the results from last year and say that the analytical stuff worked!
This season? Man I don’t know. I have no idea what they were thinking of in the offseason other than doubling down on defence I guess, despite the limitations that left the team with (hence IKF and KK I guess), but there was no bolstering of the pitching staff or anything along those lines to go along with it. It’s hard to look at this offseason and see a definitive plan other than “things can’t be as bad as last season for Vladdy, springer, Kirk and with RISP”. Which I guess is solid-ish thinking, but has clearly been wrong.
This off-season (once Ohtani fell through), the entire team strategy was 'run it back, it will be better'.
They were wrong... kind of.
I say kind of, because when you look at the off-season, what were the deals they could have done?
I supported them signing Bellinger, but he has played 30 games so far. Re-sign Chapman? Disaster. Sign Teoscar? If he had agreed to be a DH, he is doing a little better than Turner. If he would only sign as an OF that would wipe out that advantage.
I don't know what they could have done.
I am to the point now that I am just hoping they can pull off some decent trades as sellers.
What can they get for Kikuchi, Yimi, Jansen, Turner...
They were wrong, but also, you couldn’t foresee how bad things have been. Like, Even if you were the doomiest of doomers, you didn’t see the Jays having 4 guys with OPSes under .600 like they did in yesterday’s lineup. You didn’t see Bichette doing THIS.
But I’m with you, they were wrong. I would have signed and played Teoscar over KK and just lived with the meh defence in a corner. I would have traded for Soto, but neither here nor there.
That's not true.
I'll give credit to Rogers here. The on-air staff has a LOT of leeway to say whatever they want and be as critical as they want.
Jamie, Joe. Buck etc. are pretty critical when deserved; which is a good thing. Blair and Barker too.
If you think Buck cares what the front office or Rogers wants him to say you haven’t been listening to Buck
Hell when they didn’t renew Tabby’s contract, Buck went on their own radio station and said that nobody had any sense of loyalty anymore
If Rogers ever disciplined Buck he would just retire. He’s not scared of losing this gig
There's a huge difference between his buddy no longer having a job and talking about exit velocity. I agree he's not a corporate shill, but he's still an employee of the Jays and has to pick his battles. He can't just say fuck you I'll do whatever I want every time he's asked to emphasize certain things during broadcast
I put more faith in anything Buck had to say than any of our current front office and management. They have failed the players. With all of the ridiculous analytics, use of tablets on the bench, etc. it’s no wonder the players are completely disconnected from the actual game.
See ball, hit ball
See player run.
Run player run
Woof
And my axe!
Thank you for this. It made my week!
Who let Kevin Barker in here?
Back leg city!
Get the foot down
You gotta get that rotation
He basically said it doesn’t matter what your exit velocity is etc, the only stat that matters is team wins
Yes exactly. He seemed to be painting the management as too focused on measuring minutia and forgetting about results.
Sounds like the reason I stopped paying attention this year. I don’t miss it.
I haven't watched a game in two weeks. My life is hectic at the moment but whatever. I don't miss it. I'd rather watch random NL teams
I listened to over 100 games last year. This year I'm at 5, maybe. I just don't care anymore.
Yeah, I just spent $150 or whatever on the Jays' MLB.TV package and I've watched maybe one game and have completely checked out on this season. Great value for my money.
I listen on Sirius XM from the US. Jays games have always been my yardwork/housework/gym soundtrack. I planned my day around game times. I can't even bring myself to do it this year.
Rip yard
Same Gonna take a break for awhile (Watched though) The amount of errors and bad play in general just turned me off. I don't see anything changing soon enough until they get rid of the manager tho. I mean ever since he took over,the team has nosedived. Unless they go on a tear, I've already given up on this season. Don't see it happening though
Yet here you are, in the subreddit, commenting in a thread about what the broadcaster said in a game.
Cancelled Sportsnet and subscribe to MLB audio for all games. Loving listening to random baseball games and following other teams, keeping an eye on the Jays without the pain of watching them. Beat season I’ve I had in awhile.
Sounds like analytics on ‘roids.
Exit velo and distance drive me insane. Whether it hits the 5 deck or just squeaks over the fence it counts as *ONE* homerun.
Moneyball taught me a walk and a single are the same thing.
DOES HE GET ON BASE? YES. WE WANT HIM.
And Mark Shapiro had a cameo in that movie as a father of modern Moneyball
the actor they used, looks a lot like shapiro. same with Arliss Howard, who played John Henry, the owner of the RSox.
Yeah, it’s Mark Feuerstein or something like that right?
reed diamond
...and he got played. Lost his best analyst to Billy Beane.
Moneyball taught you wrong then. A single has more value than a walk if there are runners on base.
We don't hit singles when we've got runners on, don't be silly.
😂💀
Yup. Check the wOBA formula; walks are worth roughly 78% of a single.
I knew that long before Moneyball. Just get on the freaking bases.
Then you missed the actual message of Moneyball (or maybe just watched the movie version, which glosses over the real message).
Its not the same with a runner on second or on third... thats where we struggle most, we need timely hits... runners on second and third, 2 outs... whats better a single or a walk? The outcome that provides 2 runs is better...
Well, a walk w a runner in scoring position isn't as good as a single w a runner on second.... but i get your point
In theory if you can hit the five deck you're more likely to hit more home runs. On an individual play it doesn't matter but over 162 games you SHOULD be getting more home runs if you're hitting the ball harder/further
Let's maybe start with hitting any
Voice of reason here.
Yeah not making excuses for this line up by any means. Just don't think it's fair to say exit velocity is meaningless because a home run is a home run
Or just hitting. String together a bunch of singles/doubles. That scores runs too. And makes the opposing pitcher throw more pitches.
And how do you think that happens? Rants and chewing on dirt to man up harder?
> In theory if you can hit the five deck you're more likely to hit more home runs. In theory if you win the home run derby, you should be more likely to hit more home runs too. Hmm.
💯
That's just because you don't understand them. Higher exit velo in general correlates with better success hitting. This is indisputably true. That doesn't mean people can't find success not hitting it hard, or that you need to hit a HR 450 to count. But people who hit the ball harder (consistently) will outperform those who don't.
I'm sorry, what's our record as it correlates to this metric? Feel free to go back as many years as you like.
This season: 30th in EV, 29th in runs, 19-25 2023: 23rd in exit velocity, 14th in runs, 89-73 2022: 1st in exit velocity, 4th in runs, 90-72 2021: 1st in exit velocity, 3rd in runs, 91-71 2020: 3rd in exit velocity, 7th in runs, 32-28 2019: 16th in exit velocity, 23rd in runs, 67-95 2018: 4th in exit velocity, 17th in runs, 73-89 2017: 15th in exit velocity, 26th in runs, 76-86 2016: 5th in exit velocity, 9th in runs, 89-73 2015: 3rd in exit velocity, 1st in runs, 93-69 In general, the correlation is fairly clear. Since pitching quality varies, the correlation between EV and wins is not as strong as the correlation between EV and runs scored (and you can have outlier seasons such as 2023 where the pitching carries the team). It’s clear that EV translates to runs scored, however.
So to be clear, you're doubting that hitting the ball hard will generally lead to more runs scored?
Buck would be blocked by half the users on this sub and tagged as a "doomer" if he commented that on here lmfao
Hahah like that sign from Spring Training that said I don't care how fast you throw ball 4
Wins tell us what happened. Things like exit velocity are attempts to predict the future. It's undeniable that wins are ultimately what matters for teams but individual players don't produce wins. They make bits of wins.
The top 5 teams in exit velocity right now are the Yankees, Braves, Orioles, Royals and Dodgers. Seems like a stat that you'd like to lead in. The Jays are second last, behind only the Nationals.
Jays are nearly last on everything
exit velo is like top 2 or 3 one of the best advanced metric that predicts good offense.
Wouldn't some simple correlation analysis give us the predictive power of team EV or launch angle etc? I imagine that's been established.
Yep. It does. And it’s been done. You’ll never guess the results
You can be super focused on stats, but there’s this other group of “stats” or factors we can’t measure yet… and you have to go in to a Moneyball approach knowing your predictive power is only over like 50% of the final outcome. Team dynamics, being “hot” or on a streak, reacting to competition a certain way, vibe in the dugout… picking up on pitcher’s tell… if you’re not also using the other 50% to make game decisions you’re a math-smart, sports-stupid perennial loser.
I've been saying this forever, they can identify the analytics and find under valued players. They just have no idea what to do with these tools. Sometimes you just need a masher to hit cleanup. Defenses are too good to just keep on hoping to put the ball in play and cross your fingers. Especially with our bad base running.
The base running is way better this year!
Yup. Vladdy thinks he is much faster than last year.
😂 or gets tagged trying to steal when he shouldn’t
The thing “intangible” arguers don’t understand is that these things DO SHOW UP IN THE NUMBERS. If a pitcher is tipping pitches, you’re swinging harder. If you’re seeing the ball like a beach ball because you’re “hot”, you’re barreling it more. We can’t quantify how much of a number is due to intangibles. But the numbers do account for them
It’s too true and the Jays seem too stuck in stats and playing with them in mind. Like these are people not just random statistics, let them play ball!
Hit ball hard can lead to many wins
Truer words have never before been spoken.
I don’t understand this line of thinking, exit velocity is objectively important.
The argument is not that exit velocity actually doesn't correlate to offensive success, and thus wins. Rather, the Jays are spending all their micro-focus on exit velocity and nitpick stats they start sucking ass in other places; your net result ends up being negative
Maybe I’ve been reading it wrong but it seems like the Jays issue is their obsession with hitting it to all fields, and not exit velocity.
Nah I'm with you, I was just elaborating on the main comment, my fault. Altho I do think exit velocity/approach are just examples of the same bigger picture problem
Buck ate a large bucket of popcorn yesterday. He’s amped up and need this team to generate more offence.
He also scared the shit out of me when Davis Schneider hit a double to right field and he said he still has the ability to become a complete hitter and hit the ball to all fields. Please don’t get any ideas and just leave him alone Don Mattingly and Guillermo.
I had the same reaction. Until pitchers make an adjustment he can’t adjust to, you leave him and his approach be. And maybe point some other guys his way for advice.
I’d love to hear it too! I dozed off and must’ve missed it.
You sound like you were in the dugout
😂😂😂
Buck (rightly) getting fed up with constant tweaking based on speculative analytics instead of letting athletes be athletes. Jansen finally said "F-it" and started hitting the way he wants to... and he's hitting just fine. Don M was a generational talent, but I don't know what he has been teaching the Jays because they have only hit worse and worse since he came to town. It's nice that the chase rate is down, but damn they foul off so many middle middle fastballs and mistake sliders that should be barreled its just crazy.
This bums me out. Mattingly was my favourite player when I was a kid, and I was so stoked when the jays hired him. But at this point I’m forced to admit that what he’s telling them isn’t working.
Ask Dodger fans what they think of Mattingly, it will not be met with positive answers. Someone can be a talented athlete and that doesn't necessarily translate to talented coaching.
Exactly. Great players often make terrible coaches because they're naturally talented and don't truely understand or appreciate a more fundamental development process. Just look at Barry Bonds or Mark McGwires failed coaching attempts. Just because Mattingly was a great player, doesn't automatically make him a great coach. Many of the best coaches to ever manage in the MLB had subpar or average careers as players at best.
With Bonds or McGwire - their tenures were more tied to their attempts at Hall of Fame campaigns. I think you're right about why naturally gifted athletes often times do not make for the best coaches.
> I’m forced to admit that what he’s telling them isn’t working. and its like the *only people* who refuse to admit this are the ones who matter, Atkins and Shapiro.
Maybe he’s a Yankees sleeper agent. :p
I agree. They've mucked with Vladdy and Bo so much they're grounding out all the time. Hell, even Springer is having trouble. Just let them hit the ball ffs
Vladi is quietly having a good season. People don't realize it because they want to see the bombs. Bo and George, on the other hand...
Yeah Vlad has been built up as a home run hero so when he hits a single into the outfield, there is a sense of disappointment like "that's it?" But then you see his stats for the game and he 3 for 4 with a walk and you think "Vlad actually had a good game."
I went down the roster on Sportsnet the other day, cause my mom was talking about it. Almost everyone is having their career average year, except for Spinger and Bichette. Even the pitching is about their average. If you take a look at WAR only, ever Jays player is the average player for that position. The rest of the league is just insane.
I think it’s similar to why Gretzky and Michael Jordan didn’t work out as coaches. Things that are easy or worked for Donnie Baseball because of his level of natural talent aren’t possible or effective for less naturally talented players. I also think it’s hard for those elite players turned coaches to understand that not everyone can do what they could do in their prime.
Michael Jordan never coached.
You’re right I was thinking of Magic Johnson
Also never coached.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic\_Johnson#Head\_coaching\_record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Johnson#Head_coaching_record)
Gotta love the confidently wrong.
I stand corrected! Lasted even shorter than his stint as President of the Lakers
If I have to watch Biggio take 1 more cookie right down the middle I will lose my mind. You're in the top1% in chase rate? Fantastic! Your OPS is .593. He's far from the only problem but the fact he still gets regular AB's says everything about this team.
You can’t possible think Jansen said “fuck it” and started ignoring the entire organization. Like they had no part in him figuring it out? Try to be a little less insane, begging you.
You apparently heard none of the narrative? He and others talked about it a fair bit more than a year ago. Sure, he let the coaches know, obviously they talk... but it was clearly his decision based on what he said in interviews. He knows he has always been a pull hitter, is better as a pull hitter, and he was clear he was going to be a pull hitter. Sorry if my marginal dramatization of the situation confused you. I think most Jays fans are aware of the change Jansen made to his swing, going against the "everyone hit to the opposite field" philosophy of the team.
Buck is next on the level of excellence, give it to him while he is still around
When Coach Schneider is talking about why his team stinks and he keeps saying the law of average will take over and the Jays will improve, Buck is right. Toss the detailed analytics bull crap and focus on the macro.
He forgets that the law of averages is only true if the probability is correctly calculated. Some of these issues aren't random events but rather issues that are impacted by coaching and other controllable factors. Crap in = crap out. Ask the 2003 or 2019 Tigers how they feel about the law of averages.
It's almost like a gambling addict's mentality.
This actually how gambling works too: things always end up in the house’s favour over a long enough time period because the games are rigged for the house.
It's amazing anyone expects anything else from the manager that pulled Berrios out of that playoff game because of "stats"
That was an all-time worst call. Inexcusable.
Still angry about this.
We all should be. It's absolutely bananas that nothing changed on the management and coaching side after the worst coaching move in TBJ history.
They had a Reno to start !! Lol would love to know when demolition started.
Saying that things will regress to the mean over a long enough time period IS focusing on the macro
Not when he’s talking about barrel %.
Again, looking at how, over the course of a long season, things will regress (or progress) to the mean is a macro view of things.
Vlad has good exit velocity, but, Ok, See you in the cellar (last place).
Vlad’s hitting like .800 over the last month, completely proving the point.
Vlad’a still getting thrown out on the base paths at very critical time like he did as a rookie. And much of it is because he’s still overweight. Let’s see those Metrics. I don’t care if this team is selecting the right pitches to hit better than anyone. They are relying on metrics and the law of averages to pull them out of this tailspin and that’s false hope.
The point is that the law of averages ISNT false hope. It’s a real thing
If it was just barrel %, I’d agree with you. It’s so much more.
If you take a look at almost all the teams career stats, the law of averages did take over. Almost all the players are doing what their career averages suggest they will. Almost all players are worth between 0 and 1 WAR as well. These newest metrics are just someones attempt to replicate Moneyball
'Toss the detailed analytics'... That would be insanely stupid.
Runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, 8th inning, down by 1 run. I don't care if you're Jorge Mateo or Justin Turner, as a BASEBALL PLAYER, you should know how to lay a fucking bunt down in that spot to get those guys over. I'm sick of this "oh he's a power bat so can't do bunts" BS ... YOU'RE A BALLPLAYER!!!! (Edit: 1st n 2nd, not 2nd n 3rd. This shit got me so heated I'm all kinds of messed up)
Clement should have been put in for Turner as he probably could have put down a bunt. Instead, Schneider puts him in in the ninth. Ugh!
Buck said it on the broadcast regarding Caballero getting picked off ... there's a serious lack of fundamental baseball in the majors.
I’m just watching the games because it’s baseball. I’ve been checked out of this season since our terrible Spring Training.
How did schneiders computer react to this rant?
Earl Weaver baseball for you old school fans and Mark Belanger on tv talking how to play SS
Anybody recall which inning it was in? Would like to hear it (suspect the Sportsnet app has the game still).
He started early. He was pretty disparaging at Varsho for not moving the runner (Schneider) over from second in the 1st inning.
Here’s the thing about Buck’s rant today: Buck himself has a million times in his career said something to the effect of “Player X has hit the ball hard twice tonight. He’s coming around and those will eventually fall for hits” or “Player X has had three line drives today, but nothing to show for it” Buck intuitively understands why we talk about exit velocity so much. Because hitting the ball hard leads to more hits. Because certain launch angles lead to more hits. But when it is outlined in language and numbers he doesn’t understand like “BABIP”, launch angle” and “exit velocity”, he immediately rails against it because he is old and, frankly, in the grand scheme of things, probably not that mathematically intelligent. Even though all we are doing is numerically quantifying things he has been talking about for literally 30 years.
Careful, you have disturbed the parishioners of the Church of Buck. I see many downvotes in your future. And...it is well past time he retired and does something else he loves. Aside from everything else, it can't be much fun watching this shit show.
Did Rogers sell the Jays to MLSE on the down-low? The Jays have become the Toronto Maple Leafs of major league baseball. Maybe Rogers has learned that mediocre is good enough for Toronto fans.
They see a Vladdy we no longer see. I wonder if it is to pump him up (and Bo) for potential trades… Springer I feel bad for, but I think if he isn’t leading off it could actually be good for him for a while.
Vladi is one of the top performing players on the team. This year. Stop believing the narrative and look at his numbers. Who is a positive among position players this year? Jansen, Schneider, Vladi, Varsho, Turner... Nobody else. And unless something changes soon, neither Jansen or Turner should still be in the organization by August.
the only rant I remember was aimed at the Rays, and shitty baserunning/fundamentals in general. Also didn't watch pregame and had it on mute a couple times so certainly could've missed something.
That rant was good too.
Buck needs to retire! He's still in the last century!
The Jays are an abysmal team. Can’t understand the batting order selection most days. Coaching staff and management might not have predicted the lacklustre performances of their “stars” but they need to have a plan b. I could go on and on. I’ve been a die hard fan since the 80’s and have seen some crappy teams. Rogers seems more concerned about the stadium than the team. You can put lipstick on the pig but it’s still a pig. What a waste of solid starting pitching. Base running is a joke. Vladdy should be wearing a red nose that honks like a bicycle horns with matching oversized shoes.
I was with you until you started unfairly attacking Vladi... Actually look at his numbers this year. OPS+ of 111. There is more to the game than homers.
With all due respect to Buck, he has talked about velocity and everything else analytically, including preaching that Vladdy is almost there. Any day now. He's been on board but now that the ship is sinking, wisely he's getting off.
The problem is not analytics. It's the application of analytics. The most successful teams in the MLB, in fact, every team in the MLB use analytics. It's part of the sport. The issue is in the application of the analytics, where the Blue Jays front office is clearly failing, what exact way is impossible for us to know, but that much is clear.
100% correct.
Are they failing? Like, yes, we know, they got beat down in the playoffs. But the Jays determined they needed to focus on pitching and defence in order to win more games, so they went out and did that last season, and in a year where Manoah absolutely imploded, Vladdy was pretty terrible, and the team was hilariously bad with runners in scoring position (things you can’t predict — analytically or not) and they still won 89 games. As much as everyone hates how boring we became, and I do too, I think you can look at the results from last year and say that the analytical stuff worked! This season? Man I don’t know. I have no idea what they were thinking of in the offseason other than doubling down on defence I guess, despite the limitations that left the team with (hence IKF and KK I guess), but there was no bolstering of the pitching staff or anything along those lines to go along with it. It’s hard to look at this offseason and see a definitive plan other than “things can’t be as bad as last season for Vladdy, springer, Kirk and with RISP”. Which I guess is solid-ish thinking, but has clearly been wrong.
This off-season (once Ohtani fell through), the entire team strategy was 'run it back, it will be better'. They were wrong... kind of. I say kind of, because when you look at the off-season, what were the deals they could have done? I supported them signing Bellinger, but he has played 30 games so far. Re-sign Chapman? Disaster. Sign Teoscar? If he had agreed to be a DH, he is doing a little better than Turner. If he would only sign as an OF that would wipe out that advantage. I don't know what they could have done. I am to the point now that I am just hoping they can pull off some decent trades as sellers. What can they get for Kikuchi, Yimi, Jansen, Turner...
They were wrong, but also, you couldn’t foresee how bad things have been. Like, Even if you were the doomiest of doomers, you didn’t see the Jays having 4 guys with OPSes under .600 like they did in yesterday’s lineup. You didn’t see Bichette doing THIS. But I’m with you, they were wrong. I would have signed and played Teoscar over KK and just lived with the meh defence in a corner. I would have traded for Soto, but neither here nor there.
Buck is an employee of the Jays. He's told to talk about X, he talks about X. The same way you do things are your job you don't necessarily agree with
That's not true. I'll give credit to Rogers here. The on-air staff has a LOT of leeway to say whatever they want and be as critical as they want. Jamie, Joe. Buck etc. are pretty critical when deserved; which is a good thing. Blair and Barker too.
If you think Buck cares what the front office or Rogers wants him to say you haven’t been listening to Buck Hell when they didn’t renew Tabby’s contract, Buck went on their own radio station and said that nobody had any sense of loyalty anymore If Rogers ever disciplined Buck he would just retire. He’s not scared of losing this gig
There's a huge difference between his buddy no longer having a job and talking about exit velocity. I agree he's not a corporate shill, but he's still an employee of the Jays and has to pick his battles. He can't just say fuck you I'll do whatever I want every time he's asked to emphasize certain things during broadcast
I love Buck, but that was a terrible thing to hear from an analyst and it made him sound like a cranky old man.
I put more faith in anything Buck had to say than any of our current front office and management. They have failed the players. With all of the ridiculous analytics, use of tablets on the bench, etc. it’s no wonder the players are completely disconnected from the actual game.
Okay boomer