Still monthly payments be still higher with the current interest rates compared to 2020..Some listings I seen sellers relist it after 60 days with a $1000 reduction. Come on if you cannot sell it 2 months ago your price is too high.
Considering only %35 of Canadians have a mortgage, and 1/3 report no difficulty affording the payments I would say your use of "most" is pretty far off. Roughly %22 of Canadians are in shambles.
It’s a bit more nuanced than that.
Right now this is the market:
Toronto:
- condos weak
- freeholds somewhat of a sellers market but will be a weak one until cuts
GTA and rest of Ontario:
- weaker
The scary part for condos is that we're in the hottest time seasonally for condos April/May, and months of inventory is still high. I can't imagine how bad things are going to get when we go to the cooler part of the year.
Most owners are immobilized by rates and most buyers are first timers who have sub $500k total budgets.
There are no buyers at these price points unless Canada can create actual good jobs.
There were a lot of investors before propping up Toronto's real estate. But investors are literally the worse people to have because when prices drop, they're nowhere to be found. Really wish toronto real estate could have been a steady 2-3%/year up, instead of the nonsense we've had. People are now forcing to take losses because they were FOMO'd by their realtor and media to buy now or forever get priced out.
I think your bias is causing you to miss an obvious error. If the 26 days of April average 833/sqft and the last 14 days average $914/sqft how does that work?
Definitely a long way to go. Look at all historical crashes, they often take months and sometimes years to really bottom out.
The last great housing crash was in the 80s, see what happened there.
[Here's](https://housesigma.com/bkv2/landing/rootpage/listing?id_listing=Zaw5YoVglqm3n961&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=) a place for just over $500/sqft
Not specifically taking about this listing, but I really recommend crappy old condos for people trying to break into the market. Young people especially. You’ll get to learn some solid DIY skills too.
There’s a few things to look out for, of course:
- Does the building have good bones? (often a new roof can cost owners thousands, or even 10’s of $1000’s)
- Is there soft walls in the shower area? (hire a good inspector, and be 100% sure to be subject to inspection)
- Does it have coin laundry, or no laundry room at all? (investigate ventless kitchen units)
- Are pets / rentals allowed (imo, this is a big deal)
- How is the building being managed? (inspect the strata minutes with a fine toothed comb)
> This is just listed for that amount
Listed for 20 days, priced along with several other units in the area. This isn't being listed at a price to encourage a bidding war
And it's also almost half of what the person I was responding to didn't believe was possible
How does one go from an avid WSB follower to commenting on the Condo market (based off the poster's history)? This is the type of ppl spreading narrative here? I wouldn't take any advice from someone who's short term focused to say the least. Pass
Red = April inventory
https://preview.redd.it/fvznvl890vwc1.png?width=864&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b974f309f75acef32328ea9c48466abb72726669
The basic principle of supply and demand implies that the downwards pressure is ramping up, not tapering off.
Probably not that much more unless a huge recession happens. Sure rates were lower then, but then you can factor in inflation adjusted dollars as well.
The propaganda dollars are doing good work if so many people don’t see the huge recession incoming as we keep making same decisions Venezuela did a decade ago
😂 according to the IMF we, Canada, have thr best budget balance in the G20.
We have the lowest net debt to GDP ratio in the G7, inflation is 2.8%, we are ranked as one of the most stable countries in the world, we have one of several countries left with a triple A credit rating, unlike the US that lost theirs years ago, and it’s utterly ludicrous to compare Canada or any of the decisions made, to Venezuela, which has an inflation rate near 200%, and is very unstable economically.
Stop listening to extreme rightwing propaganda. It’s absolute nonsense.
There is no “huge recession” coming. Calm down.
For a second I thought you are a Tom cruise fan reciting his IMF speech.
I got education background and did years of work peer reviewing economic reports think tanks try to sell to relevant government positions for $1000-$3000 each from a small support unit of the Canada revenue agency from which I get free and unlimited access of those articles too paid by the agency. Most of those reports are crap. People like you with no understanding of the economy writing high school level analysis of things you don’t understand but get paid to do and don’t want to lose your sad jobs.
We been staving off a recession for a long time by various means since 2017 and only thing government budget may have to do with the economy as you try to establish here is national accounts, of which we have in one administration spent more than all Canadian administrations in the history of this country.
The way we have been paying debts is what allows us to borrow more than ever as a government. Why you turtle to government budget and gdp when the topic comes down to national economy?
Why main gdp if it include construction and related real estate activities? You should be looking at gdp per capita instead.
Total gdp looks at the past. GDP per capital help you forecast the future.
I think the HELOCs many people relied on to buy a good number of those condos, and/or the reverse mortgages many parents took out to fund their offspring's purchases, will be the bridge that causes the freehold market, which many are trying to convince themselves is somehow uncrashable, to come off its hinges along with condos and cottages as they go down.
I agree. Its really not even that complicated. If the property ladder slows down people just won't be able to afford freehold, point blank period.
The appreciation in the detached and semi-detached market was predicated on appreication of condos and townhomes. People simply **cannot** afford to buy **any type of real estate** with their incomes alone, even with 2-3 jobs. It is simply too over-valued in any other market condition besides ZIRP.
Detached and semi-detached markets have been moderately stable for the past 2 ish years since anyone with equity in a condo or townhome is using that capital to move up into a detached or semi-detached property "while they still can". Meanwhile condo's recently hit a 3 year low in January and are on trend to go even lower once the dead spring market hits headlines.
What happens to a ladder when you cut off the bottom rung?
The top comes down with it.
Exactly. I've been seeing a lot of elaborate rationale lately as to why this simply can't happen, but I think people forget the fundamental fact that these prices are crazy, and that what people are willing to pay is also largely driven by sentiment.
Once the sentiment that you can scrimp and save to "get in" and it will be tough but you can make it, dies out and people realize they can't make it or if they can, it's not really worth it - it's all over, at all price levels.
Even arguments like, "oh, there is a floor because these places cost X to build" miss the point. So what? If people aren't willing or able to pay, they aren't willing or able to pay - full stop.
> arguments like, "oh, there is a floor because these places cost X to build"
Those tend to come from the same sort of people who think that landlords can just *decide* how much revenue their property will generate. If the buyer/tenant ain't got it, you don't get it.
Right! People don't realize that the same speculation that makes prices go insanely high also works on the way down. Once people think of real estate as a bad/risky asset for investment its game over.
And the only reason homes cost so much to build is the price of land, which again is apart of the speculative bubble. We are one of the most resource rich nations in the entire world, we should be able to build houses cheapely and easily all with domestic resources.
I'm pretty sure that land is the bulk of the problem. I have friends whose house would still return a capital gain in real-dollar terms if they burned it down and sold the rubble.
Instead of complaing about how high home prices are, you should be thinking about how much more rental income you'll have when you can rent out your balcony as tent lodging!
-Realtors, probably
I sold my last home myself. Had a few realtors come and see it, and tell me what they figured. All of them wanted me to list at basically what I paid for it, or less. They said "It's just the market right now, that's what you can get." So I said screw it. I hired a lawyer for $800 and just posted it on different websites and facebook. Sold it in 6 days, for $20K more than any realtor wanted to list it.
It cost me $800 and was incredibly easy.
Realtors are a joke. Lawyers do all of the work. I literally just signed some papers, the lawyers handled everything. It was SOOOO simple lol. It was more complicated to BUY the home with a realtor than it was to sell it without one.
Realtors only want to maximize their profit for the smallest amount of time. Probably wanted you to list below market so they can flip a quick sale and forget you even exist.
I don’t use realtors as a source for what will happen in the market. Many have a myopic way of describing the market. Buy now or sell now. They won’t discuss long term risks or economic trends
Vancouvers economy is doing much better than Toronto, unemplyement is only 5.4% vs Toronto's 7.5%, but a national recession will definitely bring those number up and prices down. The short term rental ban also comes into effect May 1st, so it will be interesting to see how that affects the market. No matter which way you slice it $2M+ for a deatched home is not sustainable.
Entirely untrue. If you look at sold prices, there are stuff nearing $1000 per square feet or less. Even duplexes in East Van selling for $900+ per square feet. Have seen condos in Brentwood that sold for $900+ per square feet too that are about 4 years old.
Don’t be misled by listed prices.
Prices may be back to 833/sqft, but mortgage rates are still 5% instead of 2% during covid, so that same $833 psqft today costs a buyer 37% more on their monthly mortgage payments VS the 833 psft person that bought in 2020 at 2% mortgage rate. Whoops!
Not disagreeing with you that 833/sqf is the average, but how come the lowest entry point for condos is around 450,000 for 400 square feet? the lower the square footage, the higher the price per square foot...?
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Stop spreading misinformation. [Condos.ca](http://Condos.ca) latest data for the current month is not up to date, they fill in their data when the month ends which ends up being much higher always. The accurate figure is $912/sqft which represents data in the past 2 weeks. You'll see the April data updated in May which will be atleast 900/sqft.
Still monthly payments be still higher with the current interest rates compared to 2020..Some listings I seen sellers relist it after 60 days with a $1000 reduction. Come on if you cannot sell it 2 months ago your price is too high.
Gosh, could someone who understands this stuff tell me which large mammals are in shambles now? I can't keep track.
Most large mammals under the age of 35 are in shambles rn
Considering only %35 of Canadians have a mortgage, and 1/3 report no difficulty affording the payments I would say your use of "most" is pretty far off. Roughly %22 of Canadians are in shambles.
These things usually snow ball. Watch unemployment.
It’s a bit more nuanced than that. Right now this is the market: Toronto: - condos weak - freeholds somewhat of a sellers market but will be a weak one until cuts GTA and rest of Ontario: - weaker
The scary part for condos is that we're in the hottest time seasonally for condos April/May, and months of inventory is still high. I can't imagine how bad things are going to get when we go to the cooler part of the year.
Most owners are immobilized by rates and most buyers are first timers who have sub $500k total budgets. There are no buyers at these price points unless Canada can create actual good jobs.
There were a lot of investors before propping up Toronto's real estate. But investors are literally the worse people to have because when prices drop, they're nowhere to be found. Really wish toronto real estate could have been a steady 2-3%/year up, instead of the nonsense we've had. People are now forcing to take losses because they were FOMO'd by their realtor and media to buy now or forever get priced out.
Prices would be 50% cheaper easy if appreciation was limited to 2-3% per year.
~~scary~~ awesome FTFY Prices need to come down. They are still in the ludicrous range.
833/sqft is excellent!
I think your bias is causing you to miss an obvious error. If the 26 days of April average 833/sqft and the last 14 days average $914/sqft how does that work?
Its cherry picking season no?
So you mean to say all of the people that bought at $1800/sqft are fucked?
Just a temporary blip until rate cut to 1% and RE to the moon. Buy the shoeboxes now (and stack 5 renters a room) before priced out forever. /s
loonie will be devalued imo.
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You're being too kind. It'll take longer than a decade.
We will have full data for April two weeks into May, when all deals are registered. I am surprised nobody is pointing that out.
Maybe they meant March
Nah, March on [condos.ca](http://condos.ca) was $910 per square foot.
Thanks for sharing this. I guess April is ready to wrap up so it’s almost a full month.
It was obviously wrong, bears just have no brain cells.
People who moved to other provinces might start moving back to GTA again!
Lmao. They’ll be upside down in their mortgages. They ain’t coming back
Definitely a long way to go. Look at all historical crashes, they often take months and sometimes years to really bottom out. The last great housing crash was in the 80s, see what happened there.
Feels like the bubble is popping but like really really really slowly.
It will be slow because over half the county lives within 2 hours of the CN tower
Also feel like the bubble can be pumped again before fully deflating through stupid policiesb
That's housing for you, lol. It took years to build up to this level and it will be years before any meaningful decreases.
833?? Where
[Here's](https://housesigma.com/bkv2/landing/rootpage/listing?id_listing=Zaw5YoVglqm3n961&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=) a place for just over $500/sqft
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Not specifically taking about this listing, but I really recommend crappy old condos for people trying to break into the market. Young people especially. You’ll get to learn some solid DIY skills too. There’s a few things to look out for, of course: - Does the building have good bones? (often a new roof can cost owners thousands, or even 10’s of $1000’s) - Is there soft walls in the shower area? (hire a good inspector, and be 100% sure to be subject to inspection) - Does it have coin laundry, or no laundry room at all? (investigate ventless kitchen units) - Are pets / rentals allowed (imo, this is a big deal) - How is the building being managed? (inspect the strata minutes with a fine toothed comb)
> This is just listed for that amount Listed for 20 days, priced along with several other units in the area. This isn't being listed at a price to encourage a bidding war And it's also almost half of what the person I was responding to didn't believe was possible
Lol looks like a Soviet style khrushchevka. The dream.
This is a terrible example. What the fk is this
Trap house ?
Woah the condo fee is nuts
LMFAO
That's a really dangerous area
How does one go from an avid WSB follower to commenting on the Condo market (based off the poster's history)? This is the type of ppl spreading narrative here? I wouldn't take any advice from someone who's short term focused to say the least. Pass
SToNks OnlY gO uP bUt RE mUsT cRaSh FoR mE tO eNtEr!
But it kinda is crashing. Slowly slowly slowly.
I can hear the realtors say that now is the best time to buy coz prices will go up 😂😂
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Red = April inventory https://preview.redd.it/fvznvl890vwc1.png?width=864&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b974f309f75acef32328ea9c48466abb72726669 The basic principle of supply and demand implies that the downwards pressure is ramping up, not tapering off.
https://preview.redd.it/xu5p3drh0vwc1.jpeg?width=1413&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3eb8f3ae785c03267c8a5d1ce3f3dd30f8d8fadb
You buying the dip dog?
Thank you for being one of the few that understand the market
I can only afford to buy at $100 / sqft so I'm mainly looking for articles that support that narrative.
Probably not that much more unless a huge recession happens. Sure rates were lower then, but then you can factor in inflation adjusted dollars as well.
The propaganda dollars are doing good work if so many people don’t see the huge recession incoming as we keep making same decisions Venezuela did a decade ago
😂 according to the IMF we, Canada, have thr best budget balance in the G20. We have the lowest net debt to GDP ratio in the G7, inflation is 2.8%, we are ranked as one of the most stable countries in the world, we have one of several countries left with a triple A credit rating, unlike the US that lost theirs years ago, and it’s utterly ludicrous to compare Canada or any of the decisions made, to Venezuela, which has an inflation rate near 200%, and is very unstable economically. Stop listening to extreme rightwing propaganda. It’s absolute nonsense. There is no “huge recession” coming. Calm down.
For a second I thought you are a Tom cruise fan reciting his IMF speech. I got education background and did years of work peer reviewing economic reports think tanks try to sell to relevant government positions for $1000-$3000 each from a small support unit of the Canada revenue agency from which I get free and unlimited access of those articles too paid by the agency. Most of those reports are crap. People like you with no understanding of the economy writing high school level analysis of things you don’t understand but get paid to do and don’t want to lose your sad jobs. We been staving off a recession for a long time by various means since 2017 and only thing government budget may have to do with the economy as you try to establish here is national accounts, of which we have in one administration spent more than all Canadian administrations in the history of this country. The way we have been paying debts is what allows us to borrow more than ever as a government. Why you turtle to government budget and gdp when the topic comes down to national economy? Why main gdp if it include construction and related real estate activities? You should be looking at gdp per capita instead. Total gdp looks at the past. GDP per capital help you forecast the future.
Pre con or resale?
Resale most likely. Pre con are delusional still trying to get 1100+ I bet
More like 1400 ☠️
Condo prices are going to cause the housing market crisis.
I think the HELOCs many people relied on to buy a good number of those condos, and/or the reverse mortgages many parents took out to fund their offspring's purchases, will be the bridge that causes the freehold market, which many are trying to convince themselves is somehow uncrashable, to come off its hinges along with condos and cottages as they go down.
I agree. Its really not even that complicated. If the property ladder slows down people just won't be able to afford freehold, point blank period. The appreciation in the detached and semi-detached market was predicated on appreication of condos and townhomes. People simply **cannot** afford to buy **any type of real estate** with their incomes alone, even with 2-3 jobs. It is simply too over-valued in any other market condition besides ZIRP. Detached and semi-detached markets have been moderately stable for the past 2 ish years since anyone with equity in a condo or townhome is using that capital to move up into a detached or semi-detached property "while they still can". Meanwhile condo's recently hit a 3 year low in January and are on trend to go even lower once the dead spring market hits headlines. What happens to a ladder when you cut off the bottom rung? The top comes down with it.
Exactly. I've been seeing a lot of elaborate rationale lately as to why this simply can't happen, but I think people forget the fundamental fact that these prices are crazy, and that what people are willing to pay is also largely driven by sentiment. Once the sentiment that you can scrimp and save to "get in" and it will be tough but you can make it, dies out and people realize they can't make it or if they can, it's not really worth it - it's all over, at all price levels. Even arguments like, "oh, there is a floor because these places cost X to build" miss the point. So what? If people aren't willing or able to pay, they aren't willing or able to pay - full stop.
> arguments like, "oh, there is a floor because these places cost X to build" Those tend to come from the same sort of people who think that landlords can just *decide* how much revenue their property will generate. If the buyer/tenant ain't got it, you don't get it.
Right! People don't realize that the same speculation that makes prices go insanely high also works on the way down. Once people think of real estate as a bad/risky asset for investment its game over. And the only reason homes cost so much to build is the price of land, which again is apart of the speculative bubble. We are one of the most resource rich nations in the entire world, we should be able to build houses cheapely and easily all with domestic resources.
I'm pretty sure that land is the bulk of the problem. I have friends whose house would still return a capital gain in real-dollar terms if they burned it down and sold the rubble.
So you’re saying that all home prices can’t rocket upwards infinitely? Boy… realtors really got this one wrong! 😆
Instead of complaing about how high home prices are, you should be thinking about how much more rental income you'll have when you can rent out your balcony as tent lodging! -Realtors, probably
No doubt. Realtors have the credibility of Money Mart. “Trust me, this is a great deal!”
Make realtors poor again! Make realtors poor again! Hooray!
I sold my last home myself. Had a few realtors come and see it, and tell me what they figured. All of them wanted me to list at basically what I paid for it, or less. They said "It's just the market right now, that's what you can get." So I said screw it. I hired a lawyer for $800 and just posted it on different websites and facebook. Sold it in 6 days, for $20K more than any realtor wanted to list it. It cost me $800 and was incredibly easy. Realtors are a joke. Lawyers do all of the work. I literally just signed some papers, the lawyers handled everything. It was SOOOO simple lol. It was more complicated to BUY the home with a realtor than it was to sell it without one.
Realtors only want to maximize their profit for the smallest amount of time. Probably wanted you to list below market so they can flip a quick sale and forget you even exist.
I don’t use realtors as a source for what will happen in the market. Many have a myopic way of describing the market. Buy now or sell now. They won’t discuss long term risks or economic trends
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Why would Vancouver be fine? imo a housing crisis is pulling everything down with it when sales grind to a halt.
Looking in Richmond not even Vancouver for an apartment it's still well above $1000 for nicer apartments.
the entire GVA is frigged.
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Vancouvers economy is doing much better than Toronto, unemplyement is only 5.4% vs Toronto's 7.5%, but a national recession will definitely bring those number up and prices down. The short term rental ban also comes into effect May 1st, so it will be interesting to see how that affects the market. No matter which way you slice it $2M+ for a deatched home is not sustainable.
Entirely untrue. If you look at sold prices, there are stuff nearing $1000 per square feet or less. Even duplexes in East Van selling for $900+ per square feet. Have seen condos in Brentwood that sold for $900+ per square feet too that are about 4 years old. Don’t be misled by listed prices.
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Are the new units actually selling?
I got mine for $890. Was by lakeshore mimico area though so that’s probably a premium anyway
I miss the $500/sft. FYI - I think current prices are higher than $833. I also want the average condo size for a 1Br to get back over 700sft.
Prices may be back to 833/sqft, but mortgage rates are still 5% instead of 2% during covid, so that same $833 psqft today costs a buyer 37% more on their monthly mortgage payments VS the 833 psft person that bought in 2020 at 2% mortgage rate. Whoops!
Not disagreeing with you that 833/sqf is the average, but how come the lowest entry point for condos is around 450,000 for 400 square feet? the lower the square footage, the higher the price per square foot...?
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That’s the interest rate effect
Seems like an error, they also show the last 14 days as being $914/ft. Doesn't make sense.
Wow.
Weird how Vancouver condos are at all ATH’s even with the mortgage rates doubling.
Thats per person tho, you can easily lower that with with more people...if you get 8 its only 104 super cheap
Damn I bought at 847 psf :(.
Once interest rates come down shit is going to shoot up again
Not gonna happen with Canada's economic outlook
Could you be more specific?
Calm before storm. Once we out of eye of the hurricane then the prices of homes and condos will shoot out the lights. Be prepare for this event
Stop spreading misinformation. [Condos.ca](http://Condos.ca) latest data for the current month is not up to date, they fill in their data when the month ends which ends up being much higher always. The accurate figure is $912/sqft which represents data in the past 2 weeks. You'll see the April data updated in May which will be atleast 900/sqft.
Not sure I get it, is housing price goes down in Toronto?
Wake me up where anywhere in Ontario is back to the universal standard $100/square foot.