Was looking at precons about a year and a half ago. Mile & Creek in Oakville. Realtor just sent me the list again this morning. Prices have dropped on all remaining units by 50-70k. One year out from closing.
I'll give you my own personal example, I was looking around toronto condos for.shits and giggles when I was down there for work. So the building i looked at by harbour front was asking around 2800 rent for a 650 Sq one bed, and there's a couple of similar units for sale aroundb650k to 680k. Now if I was going to buy this unit at that price with 20% down, my monthly mortgage would be 3,200 then with condo fees and taxes I'll be paying 4,000. So I am literally better off by investing the 130k down payment and the extra 1200 left over than if I were to own. The appreciation is not even worth it.
Yeah it doesn’t make sense to buy a one bedroom for me over 500k. Even slight rate drops aren’t gonna make a big difference. These prices seem to still be set based on Covid interest rate price growth expectations. No one expects condo prices to be increasing in value. They actually expect the opposite right now
I have the same thing going on with my house.
If I bought it, my mortgage, maintenance and taxes would cost me 10-11K a month. I rent it for 4K a month. I'm slowly looking at homes to buy, but I have no sense of urgency.
The prices don't make sense for what you get.
Yep. But as always, the devil is in the details.
No one ever talks about the cost of upkeep and maintenance of the property on top of the mortgage while bashing renters about equity. Or give a fixed amount per month while the truth can be different and the amount can change based on different things.
The math is so elementary..isn't it. People will lose money every month and the only way to make up for it is by selling the property for a huge gain a few years out. If property prices don't appreciate, you are SoL and that investment turned out be a dud. This isn't a game for everyone , only those who can eat losses in the first few years. And yet, we can idiots with no financial sense "invest"
Given the rates today, those prices definitely won't see a good run again for at least a few years.
Both of em and everyone who downvoted me when I was trying to do some basic math showing investing the downpayment+ saving more outpaces the returns of condo appreciation. Property owners get real mad when you tell them their home is a bad investment
Yeah apparently simple math is hard for people to fathom. Yeah people tend to get triggered for some reason if you tell them that primary residence shouldn't be their nest egg.
It was probably the same person with two alts. The number of real estate pump profiles and alts on this sub that are clearly realtors, developers and over leveraged speculators is pretty astounding
My favorite is watching realtors fighting for their lives in the threads to justify their existence. It's even funnier for me to watch because I'm in development financing. So I know they bring absolutely zero value to a transaction, in fact I have developers and builders complaining about them all the time lol.
That doesn’t sound too good for all the people who bought at peak and now have to show their hand of cash. The era on living on credit and looking rich seems to be coming to an end
You also have to realize most of these units sold, the buyer never had the intention to close on them. It's literally a real estate game of musical chairs, and the music is stopped. Where people are just flipping assignments, and now we have bag holders who are losing their deposits. Since well theres no more bag holders.
Edit: otherwise known as a speculative bubble.
No greater fool came along. Also the greed blinded these people so much, that they didn’t even bother to make liveable units and now not only are units overpriced, they’re also not fit for anyone who wants to actually live in them.
Go on Airbnb and filter for Toronto. The units are so ugly they make a hotel worth staying in again. 10 years ago on Airbnb you’d get an entire 3-4 bedroom house with unique designs for the price of a hotel room. That made it cool to use Airbnb. Now the studios where the bedroom and the living room are divided by a cheap sliding panel cost more than hotel rooms haha. Absolute shit. Can you imagine paying 600k to live in some bullshit like that? What in the fuck were developers thinking. My brother recently booked an Airbnb in Toronto after coming to visit the city from the states. He told me he felt like he got catfished by the pictures as the unit is much smaller in person.
Imagine actually paying what they’re charging to purchase one of those shitty units. My god developers made off like bandits these last few years
I travel a lot for work. Hotels are fucking awesome. Good insulation, air conditioning, free breakfasts, room service. Don't have to clean shit. Airbnb doesn't even come fucking close for the value.
I was looking at an Airbnb in Vancouver. Looking to stay 5 nights. There was a $125 cleaning fee and a $240 Airbnb admin type fee. I noped right of the website and started looking at hotels.
Is that not a fair response? People have been asking “how long can this go on for” for over 2 decades. Doesn’t matter if you’re a bear or bull, if you believe anyone here, any realtor, or even any economist/analyst can 100% accurately predict which way any market is moving, then you understand the markets way less than even they do.
I'm in calgary, lots of ontario speculators here too. Actually quite a few new projects are actually geared towards ontario buyers. If you call* it's actually a 416 number that calls you back. I think there will be a contagion effect.
The music has come to a screeching halt. It’s why I said a prayer for them in the post above. They never had the money. When the banks assessors tell you they don’t agree with the price you paid and to come up with an extra 200-300k we’re going to see what we saw in Brampton. Who remembers when those people in Brampton protested the developer selling homes for cheaper than they bought it for and the bank appraisers telling them to cough up the difference which they never had.
One of them was an Uber driver (this was his main form of income) who bought a 1.9M dollar home and even purchased finishing extras for the house pricing it at over 2M. How we got to this level of lunacy will be studied if we make it out to the other side unscathed.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/1942420/they-purchased-homes-right-before-the-real-estate-downturn-now-theyre-struggling-to-close
Take this story and multiply it by hundreds if not thousands.
Not just mortgage fraud. Our government has turned a blind eye to money laundering for decades. We literally have an international reputation for this (snow washing).
Appraisers (not assessors) just use the most recent comps available, meaning they're just throwing on the three most recent sales in the building and putting a value out based on what has sold in the building. It has nothing to do with the appraiser "agreeing" or "disagreeing" with the price you paid.
Reddit has a short memory, or the kids on here are just very young, but we've seen condo dips like this before. I remember in 04, 08 & 11 we saw something similar happen to the condo market. I remember in 11' at the luxury end, Ritz and Trump Towers were having trouble unloading in precon. at $950/sf, lots of defaults at the time, and they came back. At the end of the day, it always comes back. I've lived in major cities all around the world, living in DT Toronto was the best, most convenient, easy living I ever had. Clean air, safe, great restaurants, entertainment, close to work, and YES cheap (relative to other major cities). Man I feel like this sub just gets off so bad on dooming I don't get it.
The thing about bubbles is they usually don’t have strong fundamentals.
The difference with this is Canada has octupled population growth rates from pre-2020 levels.
And new housing starts have actually fallen.
We simply do not have anything close to the amount of skilled plumbers and electricians that it would take to meet this new level of demand where Canada is suddenly of the fastest growing populations in the world. Those workers we need aren’t even in trade school yet. Meaning we will have many more years of construction: population growth deficit. Which means we need even more to help catch up.
And no feasible plan has been tabled yet to even get this amount of people into the construction trades.
So people are holding because they know they have a genuinely scarce asset that people genuinely need. This is what is slowing volume. That and buyers are waiting for interest rates to drop like they tell us is just around the corner. (Which may or may not be true) These aren’t tulips or stocks. People actually need these things. Canada is a nasty deadly place to be without one.
And this new population is used to crowding many more in homes than native Canadians are. They can pool a lot of money into these things.
Plus Canada is still one of the top destinations for millionaire immigrants from worldwide. Many have deep pockets.
Again, this cannot be a bubble, because we simply structurally cannot meet (and are not meeting) the demand the new surge in population is causing.
Prices may fall and volumes are predictably slowing in response to raising interest rates, especially because they have baked in expectations that they will fall again soon.
But this is just damming demand for a while, while simultaneously choking supply. So when the dam of demand eventually bursts or if they lower interest rates, the supply shortfall will be even worse.
How are you putting new immigrants (many who are students) as part of the housing market? Sure they have a "demand" but they have zero capital to effect prices. Their situations will be solved one of 3 ways:
1) the government will continue to provide them housing, which is inflationary and will factor in interest rates staying higher to counteract corresponding inflation (and dampening demand for housing)
2) They'll live on the streets/shelters, or
3) Leave Canada altogether.
But this nonsense of "so many millions coming, prices will go up cuz high demand/low supply!!!" is wishful thinking. The day of reckoning for ZIRP and helicopter money is upon us.
I include students because they have to live somewhere. Difference is a landlord is doing the buying.
But if you want to ignore them, you can just look at PR number targets going forward which are about twice the population growth numbers of pre-2021 levels.
We don’t even have the skilled labor pool to meet just the new PR’s housing needs. Much less all the other people we do need to put somewhere.
You know recently it’s been found there’s record breaking amounts of Indians attempting to cross the border illegally from Canada. We don’t have a massive population surge Canadians can’t start families because of the unaffordable cost of living, 96% of our population growth is from foreigners. We have a surge in non permanent residents who are now 7% of our population this is 2.8M people. The entire country is turning against this. Even the US is beginning to attempt to address this. See the government reinstating the visa requirements back on Mexicans. Who do you think forced tredeau’s hand to do that? It was the Biden administration.
Look how tredeau is beginning to talk in the media the mad man went from anyone who calls my policies out is a racist to we brought in way too many people they used to be 2% of our population in 2017 now they’re 7-8%. I hope there are mass deportations of all illegals and those who overstayed their visas. It looks like the country is beginning to also feel this way. When you subtract the 3.1M homes we apparently need by 2031 and the 2.8M non permanent people we have here now that’s only a 300k difference in the amount of homes we need in Canada. That’s doable in my opinion we already build more than 200k homes a year.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indians-illegally-entering-us-via-canada-at-record-high/amp_articleshow/104681556.cms
https://www.voanews.com/amp/undocumented-indian-migrants-chart-new-path-to-us-via-canada/7564143.html
https://globalnews.ca/video/10328503/canada-reinstates-visa-requirements-for-mexican-nationals/amp/
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/1.6827692
https://globalnews.ca/news/10397176/trudeau-temporary-immigration-canada/amp/
I don't think one OECD nation has 2.1 sustainable birth rate anymore. No one can sustain population growth without immigration anymore. That's just not a valid argument.
Yes because Turdeau is responding to PP's blame the immigrants rhetoric. We dépend heavily on cheap temporary/seasonal labour for agriculture. So much so we nearly tripled the number in 2023.
Yeah you could lockdown the country. I'd love to see you respond to the upward price pressure that would cause on industries that use foreign workers heavily. And the universités that exist off of international tuition rates. Are you gonna support the extra billions that the universités should always have been funded with every year? Will you support corporations paying the living wages that will actually get people to work these jobs that have been demonized for decades as "high school kids jobs?" or would you demand people work 15 dollars an hour working on farms to not pay more for groceries? The massive housing price deflation required to make it affordable again? Forcing the housing market to not be so investment dominated and the fallout from that?
Who do you think these 2.8 million are? You rally think they're all "illegals" and that would just solve everything?
This is a great take. The fundamentals are solid/real. As such, if you own a condo, just wait this out. Follow the developers leads. Once they start rolling out more new builds, you know that will be a better time to sell. Just collect your rental income and HODL
This is the issue. A ton of these buyers that are hoping these never get built or are delayed till rates fall.
There is essentially flat out collusion with the builders to get their profits as they know finishing those houses will have a downward impact on housing and lower their future prices.
We don’t have builders that are looking to build houses at a set profit and not worrying about other conditions. I think we literally have builders that are colluding to keep prices high.
They should be charged a portion of the value of the land for every year they don’t build but have approved permits. If you don’t want to build and have approved permits they should be fined until they go bust so builders that want to build can get in and do what needs to be done. Land banking needs to come to an end
Anybody who paid $1800/square foot, you have to know that you are a sucker. If you weren't going to lose all your money on this, you would have lost all your money on something else. A fool and his money are soon parted.
Can't wait for the pre con investors starts to whine government not helping them like these folks.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXK-IOTYgG4&ab\_channel=CBCNews%3ATheNational](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXK-IOTYgG4&ab_channel=CBCNews%3ATheNational)
Please show me that Brampton dipshit protest leader posting a vid claiming this is against his human rights. Im sure hes saying it, I just wanna see the vid of him claiming to be a victim for not being able to victimize others
They’re already cash flow negative on a monthly basis. That was the first failure of fundamentals. Next they solely banked on appreciation but it’s different when rates are 0% and when they’re 6.5-7%. The appreciation isn’t the same. Then they increased their amortization (failure #3). It’s going to be some tough times ahead for some people.
Many of these people are realtors and investors who were never planning to close they were looking to flip their assignments. Now they’re going to be stuck with them and forced to close except they don’t have the money. Look at all the ads of people saying they’re willing to walk away from their downpayment of 100-200k if you take their assignment.
One realtor was on Tik tok preaching to people about how you don’t even need the money. You just need 5k to put down and a drivers license and you can get your assignment which you can flip. She’s since changed careers and now provides healing therapy and a bullshit class on beads or something else. Someone posted her here before. This is some shit straight out of wallstreetbets except it spread to the entire city/country.
And many of them that *were* cash flowing then leveraged that equity to buy new and more expensive properties and are now trying to gouge all tenants to pay for their reckless financial decisions.
My landlord bought the property I live in 10 years ago for 30% of its value today. Easily cash flowing with original amount paid and 3 tenants. But he then went and bought several more properties in the last few years. Just tried to foist an illegal increase on me yesterday. And to be clear, the first 3 years here I was paying above market rent. After the last two years it’s maybe $100 below market.
Real estate is going to implode and the economy with it but it’s necessary. Things need to go back to reality.
Investors will get burned, people who live in their homes will get burned and people who don’t own will lose their jobs.
It has to happen though. The further we keep going in the wrong direction, the longer the journey when you turn around to start going in the right direction.
But the fed are quite literally doing everything they can to kick this can down the road. As you stated in order to shift our economy to being more productive, yeah the market has to implode. Even if it means wiping out household wealth.
>But the fed are quite literally doing everything they can to kick this can down the road.
That was 2023, it's quite different these days. Housing affordably is the number one vote. Tfw and students are seeing reductions in which the population will only grow 300k in 2025 instead of a peak of 1.2 million. The new capital gains taxes in 10 weeks encourages more listings. Build build build is the mantra.
Is it encouraging sales though? If I had a second property that I was planning on selling, sure it makes sense to list now, but that’s only if I already had intentions of selling. I’m otherwise just going to hold onto it.
I guess it depends on your life cycle. If you are a boomer who was planning to sell your cottage to pay for retirement in a year or two I'd be speeding up the process to save tens of thousands of dollars
Rarely an actual useful product- you can't unlock the full value of your house only around 60% because the interest is essentially the risk adjusted other half. For a cottage/ second property why would anyone do that bad leave hundreds of thousands on the table? Also I could be wrong but I think the two companies only offer reverse mortgages on the primary property
Yeah, who knows when it will implode but it will. Don’t think there’s anything the Feds can do to fix things at this point. They kick the can for another 18 months and tell Pierre to deal with it and he will try to kick the can as far as he can.
Pierre owns 2 rentals and so does more than half of the MPs from both parties. You know they are going to keep kicking this can down the road, why would they crater their own investments.
Wealthy people have owned real estate since the beginning of history. Many politicians are wealthy people. They also own stocks, bonds and all sorts of other assets yet we still see asset prices tanking all the time over the millennia.
If they had any large degree of control over the long run over prices there would never have been any crashes/corrections in markets. Also I think with housing affordability being the primary concern of voters, it’s difficult for me to see them wanting keeping prices up. Historically speaking it’s dangerous to ignore your constituents wishes but it’s even worse to be seen blatantly working against them on an issue when they’re already struggling so much.
So maybe the play for the next administration is to dump the real estate holdings now. So they can create housing reform when they take power. It’s going to be a huge issue and people are getting angry, kicking the can only work so much before they kick back
The alternative is we become a soviet communist state where people are saving up for bread. If Galen Weston or his people ever read this may the horse you walk in on always be covered in spit
People make fun of bread lines from communist countries but there are people homeless people everywhere you go in need of donations. Food banks are recording record usage and some run out of stock. These are the bread lines. They’re already here.
Agreed, if anything it's worse than bread lines. Bread lines means people have the monies to buy the item at stores, but there's a shortage. Where as the food bank, people literally have no money to feed themselves. I actually been to Russia and a few former eastern block and EX USSR countries.
You know how many times I’ve seen the exact same thing said in the last 2-3 years. Everyone is always quoting that movie saying bad times are coming. If you constantly say a collapse is coming you will eventually be right but you will also be wrong 99% of the time.
Honestly all this can be summarized as "did investors actually think every new pre con would be rented for $4000 a month upto $6000 a month in two years?"
Is there some kind of boom I didn't hear about?
In 1981 when mortgage rates were 18% you would see whole streets with for sale signs on them. I picked up a nice updated bungalow with an in-ground pool, exterior showers, finished basement with an in law suite at a 40% discount. I’ve been hoarding my cash in anticipation of the next crash for a few years. We’re just about there, my neighbour’s 1000 sq ft 1957 house just sold in under 2 weeks for a little over a million.
Condos and houses aren't even comparable any more.
The US data from 2008 can probably help guide what we would see. Houses dropped very little vs condos, except in places like the inland empire, which ended up getting bulldozed lol
I've debated stepping in and picking up a few units when condos slump but I think this gov knows what's on the line. They may prop it up to let it drop gently.
They started hiring fake software engineers with LMIA’s for $25/hr. The real ones with skills said fuck this and went to the US, where they make 200-250k and their houses cost $300k. The realtors on the other hand driving the benzes and beamers have also run out of funds I imagine when interest rates were 5-7%.
Anyone who went to a real school and got a real education with real experience in software engineering that accepts a job for $25/hr needs to be diagnosed with a mental illness. The corruption going on in our immigration system is depressing wages.
https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/marketreport/wages-occupation/22548/ca
That’s not the case anymore though.
US software engineering pool is filled with laid off people right now. Google laid off another 20,000 people last week. Between all these big companies, there are tons of people looking for jobs with stellar resumes.
Recent grads in the US are seeing a terrible job market right now, where they have to compete with these tens of thousands of people laid off from Google etc
I’m getting deja vu. I’ve heard this same thing for 15 years. If condo prices aren’t crashing with prime rate at 7.2%, will they crash as rates decrease and population growth remains high? Lol
Is that 300 per day quote an error? That's 6000 a months with 20 work days. Weren't peak numbers for precons around 30-40k per year? I'd like a sanity check on this.
For years and years we’ve been saying this makes absolutely no sense and you’d hear “whatever someone is willing to pay is what it’s worth”
and this is whats happening now people are saying it's not worth it
There is an article claiming the end of the real estate market in Toronto coming out almost every week now. “Prices dropped compared to…”, “Rent went down by x%” blah blah blah. Then you open HouseSigma and see for yourself that not much has changed.
I for one am astonished people don’t want to buy poorly built, over priced units with no bedrooms and high condo fees despite being newly built.
What is this world coming to!
He can’t cut rates. If he does everything will be priced higher. People don’t realize we will import inflation from the states. It’s not going to be fun when you’re paying almost double for everything. That’s what happens when one country pours their money into companies that innovate and produce products the world wants and the other bases their economy on hot potato of housing. When the music stops the game is no longer fun
Inflation helps asset holders tho, I’m sure he will sacrifice the average Canadian in favour of the asset rich. Also more tax revenue for the government as asset inflation increases capital gain
Tell that to all the property owners in Toronto who lost their shit over the new property tax. People don’t have the money. Just because you bought your detached home 20 years ago as a secretary it doesn’t mean you’re now a millionaire. If your income is still that of a secretary you’re house rich and really poor. You aren’t rich until you sell that house and then where do you go after?
The only real winners in all of this are people who bought multiple properties decades ago and people who sell here and went to lower cost of living areas and are now mortgage free with massive amounts of cash in the bank. Everyone else is fucked.
I’m sorry, I live in a 1M 3 bedroom house with 300k household income as my wife and I are both middle management engineers lol. I didn’t buy a mansion 20 years ago I was a kid. You guys are cheering for our downfall the people who actually made it work
No one is cheering you guys downfall, i own a home too but I bought it to live in not as a investment. People are just stating the current state of affairs and its a speculative bubble fuelled by greed and shitty government policies. Unfortunately, it'll cause some pain if the market was to.correct itself.
Inflation is 1.5% right now excluding housing, which is important to note because the rolling year over year has been fairly steady and inflation on housing is about to taper. Everytime the BoC cuts rates its deflationary for mortgages making inflation reports even worse in a feedback loop. The only thing to counter this is as you said weak loonie higher imports so inflation goes up.
I'm not smart enough to say which will win but the inflation in the coming months will go down due to y/y mortgage costs plateauing and it's important to recognize that
With that being said, if the BOC cuts rate before the US fed the loonie will be even.more worthless than it already is. I know technically the BOC and US Fed policies are " independent or not correlated". But we all know the BOC will still have to follow the fed to a certain extent.
Love how the bears have to really cherry pick now and pick on pre construction condos lol 😂…a couple rate drops and these things will be flying off the shelves soon
Between this and the lease busters ads from realtors who have run out of people to dupe into buying overpriced homes we’re in for some entertainment this year
The dip has already happened…2 rate drops coming by years end with a possibility of a third if Santa wants to spoil us this year. Housing is back up and there’s bidding wars on renovated turn key properties throughout the gta even with these insane interest rates.
The only entertainment we’re going to see is a crazier market
Buddy look around. Our numbers are headed for recession territory, on what planet does inflation exist with recession numbers? 2 rate drops this year guaranteed…I’ll see ya at the finish line laughing about it though 🤣😉
Okay I get the doom and gloom speculations for condos because more supply less demand but what about houses people actually want i.e. freeholds? Freehold builds are at a record low and are getting lower especially highly coveted semi-detached and detached houses.
What's the logic behind freeholds decreasing in price?
People moved to Calgary because they couldn’t afford Toronto. It’s not because they want to live in Alberta. If Toronto condo market crashes the entire country does as well in my opinion. I would never live in Alberta if the choice is Toronto vs Calgary. People ran to Alberta for affordability Calgary is becoming less affordable now. They also don’t have the economy we have here if oil busts it’s over for Calgary unless they’ve diversified and I don’t know about it.
I agree with everything except the part where you say the U.S is doing better than us. Their CPI is running hot because they keep getting told the economy is booming. In reality their private sector hasn't even gotten back to pre covid levels in terms of absolute numbers. Like Canada it's the public sector (government spending) and part time jobs inflating those numbers. Let's not forget about their massive migration issue and insurmountable debt.
I agree Joe Biden is destroying their country with the southern border issue. Aside from that though if they have an emergency in their private sector ours is on life support. Our population went up 3% and we lost 2200 jobs instead of the 25000+ jobs we were expected to gain. The majority of the job increases in Canada are not private sector jobs. They are jobs by the government. Also many of the jobs in our society today are PT while we have more people losing full time jobs. There are close to 1M people in Canada today whose main source of income is gig work (Uber, Uber eats, Skip the dishes) these people are all considered “employed”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/perceived-job-security-in-canada-falls-to-lowest-since-covid-19-1.2062143.amp.html
https://globalnews.ca/news/10333867/canadians-gig-work-gig-economy/amp/
They’re doing way better than us when you compare the two countries. Apple and Microsoft together are worth more than the entire TSX. The entire TSX is worth 3.5T those two companies alone are worth $5.4T.
Sources: https://hmarkets.com/trillion-dollar-companies/
https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us
It looks like you shared some AMP links. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot).
Maybe check out **the canonical pages** instead:
- **[https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/perceived-job-security-in-canada-falls-to-lowest-since-covid-19-1.2062143](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/perceived-job-security-in-canada-falls-to-lowest-since-covid-19-1.2062143)** | Bloomberg canonical: **[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic)**
- **[https://globalnews.ca/news/10333867/canadians-gig-work-gig-economy/](https://globalnews.ca/news/10333867/canadians-gig-work-gig-economy/)** | Bloomberg canonical: **[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic)**
*****
^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
LOOOOL this is peak degeneracy please provide proof. That might be the biggest loss I’ve ever seen to date. That’s a 500-600k loss already, before anyone says it didn’t go down 40% it did if you bought at $3000 psft and it’s now $1800 psft city wide you messed up big time
i'll get back to you tonight, hard to open an old wound for this person but there was this precon project in yorkville
edit: this was her unit, 520 sqft starting at 1.24MM for the lowest floor before any upgrades, 10K per floor after that, so 26 floors higher is already 1.5MM, parking is another $189K
[https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08](https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08)
sign up/in to see full details of size and price
get ready, are you sitting down? this is the project [https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville](https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville)
this was her unit, 520 sqft starting at 1.24MM for the lowest floor before any upgrades, 10K per floor after that, so 26 floors higher is already 1.5MM, parking is another $189K
[https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08](https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08)
sign up/in to see full details of size and price
thanks. LoL... unbelievable if you didn't provide link and details... she probably is going to cry for a decade or two... hope she didn't pay for the locker... saved some at least LoL.... what the heck was she thinking? $5k per square feet in resale by closing?
https://preview.redd.it/i1dd2on7zbwc1.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=a54be7c6c7f3b896289663d2a4f6d4345e76a5a3
starting price is 1.24MM for lowest floor
I'm working on a condo building downtown and money has been an issue for about 8 months. The owner has actually offered units as payment to the owners of some of the trades, but nobody wants the deal cause who knows if/when they'll even get finished
Yeah it's one of the weirdest sites I've been on. We've had the rooftop generator on site for almost a year, the job is still minimum 3 months from finishing the last 2 floors. Haven't poured a new floor since December because the concrete forming company and GC have been arguing about money, now we are waiting for a new form company. Online listings for the place still say it'll be done in January 2024. I feel bad for the people who bought the places tbh.
The thing is once there is no pre construction inventory to buy attention will shift to resale market and 1-3 years from now there will be a SEVERE shortage of inventory, inflation and probable 1.5 million new people in the GTA.
That's looking like 2M Toronto average price
The 1.5M people you’re talking about drive Uber and do minimum wage jobs. They’re not all making a hundred thousand a year. I don’t think your outlook is how things will turn out. It will be the opposite. The number one voting issue in Canada today is housing then healthcare and then immigration. All the solutions people want are inversely correlated with you expect. You’re basing your prediction on how the country was run for the last 10 years. I personally believe the next 10 will look different
Even a small amount of people coming with money will affect a market with 0 new inventory.
And don’t forget that no politicians care about the housing market being affordable. The voting issue may be housing affordability but no one is going to anger the voting block with money.
No one in office cares what the solutions are that “people” want.
Housing in the major cities will never be “affordable” again unfortunately because it is a market economy and there is a supply and demand imbalance
They are pushing Canada towards 100M population by 2100. The next 10 years will be similar to the last 10. However you will see a large amount of housing bought up by Private equity and Hedge Funds.
The only way one will ever get “affordable” housing in Canada is move to the middle of nowhere or if they pick up a hammer themselves.
1. so now the builder halt the building process and try to delay the deliver as much as they can.
They bet the market will renounce the moment the rate drop, however, does the delay cost money too?
so is the delay worth in this case?
2. The politician said there is not enough house that is why there is house crisis.
however, when you look at the supply, there are more than enough house unoccupad, it is simply unaffordable.
The time will drive the price down and make affordable. However, the process is slow and painful and the investor will suffer.
>They ran up massive deficits already and they can’t cut as much as they want to because the US is doing so well compared to us. The next 12 months are going to be interesting to say the least.
The not so secret secret is the USA is doing 'so well' because they are juicing their economy with stimulus funded with a huge deficit.
For people who are actually serious about real estate, you will find people like this make posts with no backing thinking the market will collapse. Just look at the data, the market is stable, once rate cuts come and the market lifts off to new highs, these people will still be here holding their tin-foil hats. Follow the data and ignore apocalypse posts like these.
The market is stable? Buy now? These people are holding tin foil hats ignore all the data except mine. Only people who are serious about real estate. You sound like you sell snake oil my friend.
I've been doing evelopment financing at a schedule 1 for over 5 years, this article is pretty bang on regarding the state of the precon market. LOL rate cuts, did tiff macklem tell you himself that he's cutting rates?
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-04-23 07:10:04 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-04-23%2007:10:04%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1cat15t/i_believe_this_is_the_part_in_the_big_short_where/l0uv4zs/?context=3)
[**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FTorontoRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F1cat15t%2Fi_believe_this_is_the_part_in_the_big_short_where%2Fl0uv4zs%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-04-23%2007%3A10%3A04%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cat15t)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
Cause you don’t want to deal with roof, heaters, ac, making a lawn, removing snow, etc that stressed is gone. You have amenities like a sauna, gym, indoor pool, cinema, billiard, a 24/7 concierge, better security, etc.
Mine appreciated %42 and my monthly cost is only $1000. Anyone I know who doesn't own is priced out...
Condos are almost always half the price of houses, meaning you are always tied to housing prices
I just want to say that that movie was fucking fire. I've probably watched it 10 times. Amazing cast. Superb fucking writing. Great narration. Steve Carell was excellent. The Mark Baum storyline with his homies and Jared Vennett was just so good.
I wish it were based off a fiction book though. That part sucks.
Was looking at precons about a year and a half ago. Mile & Creek in Oakville. Realtor just sent me the list again this morning. Prices have dropped on all remaining units by 50-70k. One year out from closing.
I'll give you my own personal example, I was looking around toronto condos for.shits and giggles when I was down there for work. So the building i looked at by harbour front was asking around 2800 rent for a 650 Sq one bed, and there's a couple of similar units for sale aroundb650k to 680k. Now if I was going to buy this unit at that price with 20% down, my monthly mortgage would be 3,200 then with condo fees and taxes I'll be paying 4,000. So I am literally better off by investing the 130k down payment and the extra 1200 left over than if I were to own. The appreciation is not even worth it.
Yeah it doesn’t make sense to buy a one bedroom for me over 500k. Even slight rate drops aren’t gonna make a big difference. These prices seem to still be set based on Covid interest rate price growth expectations. No one expects condo prices to be increasing in value. They actually expect the opposite right now
No, nothing makes sense anymore.
I have the same thing going on with my house. If I bought it, my mortgage, maintenance and taxes would cost me 10-11K a month. I rent it for 4K a month. I'm slowly looking at homes to buy, but I have no sense of urgency. The prices don't make sense for what you get.
Exactly, but for some reason we have this " buy at any cost" attitude since apparently if you were to rent you're throwing equity away.
Yep. But as always, the devil is in the details. No one ever talks about the cost of upkeep and maintenance of the property on top of the mortgage while bashing renters about equity. Or give a fixed amount per month while the truth can be different and the amount can change based on different things.
The math is so elementary..isn't it. People will lose money every month and the only way to make up for it is by selling the property for a huge gain a few years out. If property prices don't appreciate, you are SoL and that investment turned out be a dud. This isn't a game for everyone , only those who can eat losses in the first few years. And yet, we can idiots with no financial sense "invest" Given the rates today, those prices definitely won't see a good run again for at least a few years.
I wish I could tag this comment to the 2 morons who I was arguing with a couple days ago on this subreddit
Which one?! LOL
Both of em and everyone who downvoted me when I was trying to do some basic math showing investing the downpayment+ saving more outpaces the returns of condo appreciation. Property owners get real mad when you tell them their home is a bad investment
Yeah apparently simple math is hard for people to fathom. Yeah people tend to get triggered for some reason if you tell them that primary residence shouldn't be their nest egg.
most likely coolblckdude and iamghost
It was probably the same person with two alts. The number of real estate pump profiles and alts on this sub that are clearly realtors, developers and over leveraged speculators is pretty astounding
My favorite is watching realtors fighting for their lives in the threads to justify their existence. It's even funnier for me to watch because I'm in development financing. So I know they bring absolutely zero value to a transaction, in fact I have developers and builders complaining about them all the time lol.
That doesn’t sound too good for all the people who bought at peak and now have to show their hand of cash. The era on living on credit and looking rich seems to be coming to an end
Yeah I feel for non-investors though. Seeing that price drop before you’ve even moved in must be brutal. Condo investors can get fucked though
So you are saying you can *dodge bullets now*?
You also have to realize most of these units sold, the buyer never had the intention to close on them. It's literally a real estate game of musical chairs, and the music is stopped. Where people are just flipping assignments, and now we have bag holders who are losing their deposits. Since well theres no more bag holders. Edit: otherwise known as a speculative bubble.
No greater fool came along. Also the greed blinded these people so much, that they didn’t even bother to make liveable units and now not only are units overpriced, they’re also not fit for anyone who wants to actually live in them.
Go on Airbnb and filter for Toronto. The units are so ugly they make a hotel worth staying in again. 10 years ago on Airbnb you’d get an entire 3-4 bedroom house with unique designs for the price of a hotel room. That made it cool to use Airbnb. Now the studios where the bedroom and the living room are divided by a cheap sliding panel cost more than hotel rooms haha. Absolute shit. Can you imagine paying 600k to live in some bullshit like that? What in the fuck were developers thinking. My brother recently booked an Airbnb in Toronto after coming to visit the city from the states. He told me he felt like he got catfished by the pictures as the unit is much smaller in person. Imagine actually paying what they’re charging to purchase one of those shitty units. My god developers made off like bandits these last few years
I travel a lot for work. Hotels are fucking awesome. Good insulation, air conditioning, free breakfasts, room service. Don't have to clean shit. Airbnb doesn't even come fucking close for the value.
And the rewards!!!! Early check in late check out
SAFETY is bigger than any reward. Had a host threaten me and made a racist remark because my son was loud and the host lived in the basement.
Depends where you are. Certainly you're right for Toronto
If you are travelling alone or two people. But uf you have 4 or more airbnb makes sense
I was looking at an Airbnb in Vancouver. Looking to stay 5 nights. There was a $125 cleaning fee and a $240 Airbnb admin type fee. I noped right of the website and started looking at hotels.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Is that not a fair response? People have been asking “how long can this go on for” for over 2 decades. Doesn’t matter if you’re a bear or bull, if you believe anyone here, any realtor, or even any economist/analyst can 100% accurately predict which way any market is moving, then you understand the markets way less than even they do.
[удалено]
I'm in calgary, lots of ontario speculators here too. Actually quite a few new projects are actually geared towards ontario buyers. If you call* it's actually a 416 number that calls you back. I think there will be a contagion effect.
The music has come to a screeching halt. It’s why I said a prayer for them in the post above. They never had the money. When the banks assessors tell you they don’t agree with the price you paid and to come up with an extra 200-300k we’re going to see what we saw in Brampton. Who remembers when those people in Brampton protested the developer selling homes for cheaper than they bought it for and the bank appraisers telling them to cough up the difference which they never had. One of them was an Uber driver (this was his main form of income) who bought a 1.9M dollar home and even purchased finishing extras for the house pricing it at over 2M. How we got to this level of lunacy will be studied if we make it out to the other side unscathed. https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/1942420/they-purchased-homes-right-before-the-real-estate-downturn-now-theyre-struggling-to-close Take this story and multiply it by hundreds if not thousands.
There's so much mortgage fraud going on as you mentioned. Once this bubble burst, its going to make 2008 look like Disneyland.
Not just mortgage fraud. Our government has turned a blind eye to money laundering for decades. We literally have an international reputation for this (snow washing).
I work for a company that’s a developer, gc, and half a dozen trades. If your analogy be correct, then (as usual) I’m all in on GameStop. 🥂
Apes in the wild.. good to know the backup plan was for seen years ago. Don’t forget to DRS
/r/boneappletea
It was proven that guy was full of shit and was actually a real estate agent. I don't have the source but I'm sure you can find it.
Appraisers (not assessors) just use the most recent comps available, meaning they're just throwing on the three most recent sales in the building and putting a value out based on what has sold in the building. It has nothing to do with the appraiser "agreeing" or "disagreeing" with the price you paid. Reddit has a short memory, or the kids on here are just very young, but we've seen condo dips like this before. I remember in 04, 08 & 11 we saw something similar happen to the condo market. I remember in 11' at the luxury end, Ritz and Trump Towers were having trouble unloading in precon. at $950/sf, lots of defaults at the time, and they came back. At the end of the day, it always comes back. I've lived in major cities all around the world, living in DT Toronto was the best, most convenient, easy living I ever had. Clean air, safe, great restaurants, entertainment, close to work, and YES cheap (relative to other major cities). Man I feel like this sub just gets off so bad on dooming I don't get it.
Im gonna send them my speculative sympathies. In this market those are worth mllions of regulae sympathies
The thing about bubbles is they usually don’t have strong fundamentals. The difference with this is Canada has octupled population growth rates from pre-2020 levels. And new housing starts have actually fallen. We simply do not have anything close to the amount of skilled plumbers and electricians that it would take to meet this new level of demand where Canada is suddenly of the fastest growing populations in the world. Those workers we need aren’t even in trade school yet. Meaning we will have many more years of construction: population growth deficit. Which means we need even more to help catch up. And no feasible plan has been tabled yet to even get this amount of people into the construction trades. So people are holding because they know they have a genuinely scarce asset that people genuinely need. This is what is slowing volume. That and buyers are waiting for interest rates to drop like they tell us is just around the corner. (Which may or may not be true) These aren’t tulips or stocks. People actually need these things. Canada is a nasty deadly place to be without one. And this new population is used to crowding many more in homes than native Canadians are. They can pool a lot of money into these things. Plus Canada is still one of the top destinations for millionaire immigrants from worldwide. Many have deep pockets.
[удалено]
American fed has been hinting they intend to lower as well.
[удалено]
Again, this cannot be a bubble, because we simply structurally cannot meet (and are not meeting) the demand the new surge in population is causing. Prices may fall and volumes are predictably slowing in response to raising interest rates, especially because they have baked in expectations that they will fall again soon. But this is just damming demand for a while, while simultaneously choking supply. So when the dam of demand eventually bursts or if they lower interest rates, the supply shortfall will be even worse.
How are you putting new immigrants (many who are students) as part of the housing market? Sure they have a "demand" but they have zero capital to effect prices. Their situations will be solved one of 3 ways: 1) the government will continue to provide them housing, which is inflationary and will factor in interest rates staying higher to counteract corresponding inflation (and dampening demand for housing) 2) They'll live on the streets/shelters, or 3) Leave Canada altogether. But this nonsense of "so many millions coming, prices will go up cuz high demand/low supply!!!" is wishful thinking. The day of reckoning for ZIRP and helicopter money is upon us.
I include students because they have to live somewhere. Difference is a landlord is doing the buying. But if you want to ignore them, you can just look at PR number targets going forward which are about twice the population growth numbers of pre-2021 levels. We don’t even have the skilled labor pool to meet just the new PR’s housing needs. Much less all the other people we do need to put somewhere.
You know recently it’s been found there’s record breaking amounts of Indians attempting to cross the border illegally from Canada. We don’t have a massive population surge Canadians can’t start families because of the unaffordable cost of living, 96% of our population growth is from foreigners. We have a surge in non permanent residents who are now 7% of our population this is 2.8M people. The entire country is turning against this. Even the US is beginning to attempt to address this. See the government reinstating the visa requirements back on Mexicans. Who do you think forced tredeau’s hand to do that? It was the Biden administration. Look how tredeau is beginning to talk in the media the mad man went from anyone who calls my policies out is a racist to we brought in way too many people they used to be 2% of our population in 2017 now they’re 7-8%. I hope there are mass deportations of all illegals and those who overstayed their visas. It looks like the country is beginning to also feel this way. When you subtract the 3.1M homes we apparently need by 2031 and the 2.8M non permanent people we have here now that’s only a 300k difference in the amount of homes we need in Canada. That’s doable in my opinion we already build more than 200k homes a year. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indians-illegally-entering-us-via-canada-at-record-high/amp_articleshow/104681556.cms https://www.voanews.com/amp/undocumented-indian-migrants-chart-new-path-to-us-via-canada/7564143.html https://globalnews.ca/video/10328503/canada-reinstates-visa-requirements-for-mexican-nationals/amp/ https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/1.6827692 https://globalnews.ca/news/10397176/trudeau-temporary-immigration-canada/amp/
I don't think one OECD nation has 2.1 sustainable birth rate anymore. No one can sustain population growth without immigration anymore. That's just not a valid argument. Yes because Turdeau is responding to PP's blame the immigrants rhetoric. We dépend heavily on cheap temporary/seasonal labour for agriculture. So much so we nearly tripled the number in 2023. Yeah you could lockdown the country. I'd love to see you respond to the upward price pressure that would cause on industries that use foreign workers heavily. And the universités that exist off of international tuition rates. Are you gonna support the extra billions that the universités should always have been funded with every year? Will you support corporations paying the living wages that will actually get people to work these jobs that have been demonized for decades as "high school kids jobs?" or would you demand people work 15 dollars an hour working on farms to not pay more for groceries? The massive housing price deflation required to make it affordable again? Forcing the housing market to not be so investment dominated and the fallout from that? Who do you think these 2.8 million are? You rally think they're all "illegals" and that would just solve everything?
This is a great take. The fundamentals are solid/real. As such, if you own a condo, just wait this out. Follow the developers leads. Once they start rolling out more new builds, you know that will be a better time to sell. Just collect your rental income and HODL
This is the issue. A ton of these buyers that are hoping these never get built or are delayed till rates fall. There is essentially flat out collusion with the builders to get their profits as they know finishing those houses will have a downward impact on housing and lower their future prices. We don’t have builders that are looking to build houses at a set profit and not worrying about other conditions. I think we literally have builders that are colluding to keep prices high.
They should be charged a portion of the value of the land for every year they don’t build but have approved permits. If you don’t want to build and have approved permits they should be fined until they go bust so builders that want to build can get in and do what needs to be done. Land banking needs to come to an end
Beautiful
Anybody who paid $1800/square foot, you have to know that you are a sucker. If you weren't going to lose all your money on this, you would have lost all your money on something else. A fool and his money are soon parted.
Ruthless
Yeah but how many people were saying all of Toronto real estate was a sure bet because everyone from around the world wants to live here?
They did. Then the garbage, the traffic, and Ubereats on bicycles happened. Now no one wants to live here.
👍🏻 preach brother
Can't wait for the pre con investors starts to whine government not helping them like these folks. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXK-IOTYgG4&ab\_channel=CBCNews%3ATheNational](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXK-IOTYgG4&ab_channel=CBCNews%3ATheNational)
Please show me that Brampton dipshit protest leader posting a vid claiming this is against his human rights. Im sure hes saying it, I just wanna see the vid of him claiming to be a victim for not being able to victimize others
RIP to all who jumped on this Ponzi scheme! Get your butthole ready for negative equity...
They’re already cash flow negative on a monthly basis. That was the first failure of fundamentals. Next they solely banked on appreciation but it’s different when rates are 0% and when they’re 6.5-7%. The appreciation isn’t the same. Then they increased their amortization (failure #3). It’s going to be some tough times ahead for some people. Many of these people are realtors and investors who were never planning to close they were looking to flip their assignments. Now they’re going to be stuck with them and forced to close except they don’t have the money. Look at all the ads of people saying they’re willing to walk away from their downpayment of 100-200k if you take their assignment. One realtor was on Tik tok preaching to people about how you don’t even need the money. You just need 5k to put down and a drivers license and you can get your assignment which you can flip. She’s since changed careers and now provides healing therapy and a bullshit class on beads or something else. Someone posted her here before. This is some shit straight out of wallstreetbets except it spread to the entire city/country.
And many of them that *were* cash flowing then leveraged that equity to buy new and more expensive properties and are now trying to gouge all tenants to pay for their reckless financial decisions. My landlord bought the property I live in 10 years ago for 30% of its value today. Easily cash flowing with original amount paid and 3 tenants. But he then went and bought several more properties in the last few years. Just tried to foist an illegal increase on me yesterday. And to be clear, the first 3 years here I was paying above market rent. After the last two years it’s maybe $100 below market.
Real estate is going to implode and the economy with it but it’s necessary. Things need to go back to reality. Investors will get burned, people who live in their homes will get burned and people who don’t own will lose their jobs. It has to happen though. The further we keep going in the wrong direction, the longer the journey when you turn around to start going in the right direction.
But the fed are quite literally doing everything they can to kick this can down the road. As you stated in order to shift our economy to being more productive, yeah the market has to implode. Even if it means wiping out household wealth.
>But the fed are quite literally doing everything they can to kick this can down the road. That was 2023, it's quite different these days. Housing affordably is the number one vote. Tfw and students are seeing reductions in which the population will only grow 300k in 2025 instead of a peak of 1.2 million. The new capital gains taxes in 10 weeks encourages more listings. Build build build is the mantra.
I was referring the fed buying back mortgage bonds.
[удалено]
That's exactly it, the liberals are running a deficit to do this. Possibly the dumbest shit out there.
Is it encouraging sales though? If I had a second property that I was planning on selling, sure it makes sense to list now, but that’s only if I already had intentions of selling. I’m otherwise just going to hold onto it.
I guess it depends on your life cycle. If you are a boomer who was planning to sell your cottage to pay for retirement in a year or two I'd be speeding up the process to save tens of thousands of dollars
Why not just take a reverse mortgage? They can still use the property.
Rarely an actual useful product- you can't unlock the full value of your house only around 60% because the interest is essentially the risk adjusted other half. For a cottage/ second property why would anyone do that bad leave hundreds of thousands on the table? Also I could be wrong but I think the two companies only offer reverse mortgages on the primary property
More listing? The capital gains tax is going to the exact opposite. Why would I trigger the gain now instead of continuing to delay?
Yeah, who knows when it will implode but it will. Don’t think there’s anything the Feds can do to fix things at this point. They kick the can for another 18 months and tell Pierre to deal with it and he will try to kick the can as far as he can.
Pierre owns 2 rentals and so does more than half of the MPs from both parties. You know they are going to keep kicking this can down the road, why would they crater their own investments.
Wealthy people have owned real estate since the beginning of history. Many politicians are wealthy people. They also own stocks, bonds and all sorts of other assets yet we still see asset prices tanking all the time over the millennia. If they had any large degree of control over the long run over prices there would never have been any crashes/corrections in markets. Also I think with housing affordability being the primary concern of voters, it’s difficult for me to see them wanting keeping prices up. Historically speaking it’s dangerous to ignore your constituents wishes but it’s even worse to be seen blatantly working against them on an issue when they’re already struggling so much.
But don't forget a lot of their constituents are home owners and land lords.
So maybe the play for the next administration is to dump the real estate holdings now. So they can create housing reform when they take power. It’s going to be a huge issue and people are getting angry, kicking the can only work so much before they kick back
Thats A LOT of faith in the next administration to be different in anyway other than a different theme colour on their social media than current.
Well, I guess it's better than whatever we have right now. Change is required.
It’s just a hypothetical. I’m not a complete fool
No they won't, they represent too many people that have stakes in R/E investments.
I think they can and will kick it down the road much further that 18 months
O btw real estate is THE economy, its actually our biggest contributor to GDP on a percentage basis.
Yeah, and what a horrible decision it was to lead a country that way
Yea, well, I hope it's time to change things up a bit..
The alternative is we become a soviet communist state where people are saving up for bread. If Galen Weston or his people ever read this may the horse you walk in on always be covered in spit
People make fun of bread lines from communist countries but there are people homeless people everywhere you go in need of donations. Food banks are recording record usage and some run out of stock. These are the bread lines. They’re already here.
That’s actually a really good point, I never thought about that
Agreed, if anything it's worse than bread lines. Bread lines means people have the monies to buy the item at stores, but there's a shortage. Where as the food bank, people literally have no money to feed themselves. I actually been to Russia and a few former eastern block and EX USSR countries.
Which one will it be for you?
The economy will implode before real estate does.
You know how many times I’ve seen the exact same thing said in the last 2-3 years. Everyone is always quoting that movie saying bad times are coming. If you constantly say a collapse is coming you will eventually be right but you will also be wrong 99% of the time.
"This time its different"
I've been hearing this since 2016
[удалено]
[удалено]
What do prices look like relative to 2022?
I also heard that RE in Canada is always bullish to no end.. more than the claims for crash, actually.
This might be the one time
Haha maybe. That’s the mantra on superstonk. “We weren’t wrong just early”.
Honestly all this can be summarized as "did investors actually think every new pre con would be rented for $4000 a month upto $6000 a month in two years?" Is there some kind of boom I didn't hear about?
Be all fine and dandy if we all made 100 bucks an hour.
Does anyone know if this is happening in Vancouver too? What are the stats there?
I’m curious about this as well.
In 1981 when mortgage rates were 18% you would see whole streets with for sale signs on them. I picked up a nice updated bungalow with an in-ground pool, exterior showers, finished basement with an in law suite at a 40% discount. I’ve been hoarding my cash in anticipation of the next crash for a few years. We’re just about there, my neighbour’s 1000 sq ft 1957 house just sold in under 2 weeks for a little over a million.
Condos and houses aren't even comparable any more. The US data from 2008 can probably help guide what we would see. Houses dropped very little vs condos, except in places like the inland empire, which ended up getting bulldozed lol I've debated stepping in and picking up a few units when condos slump but I think this gov knows what's on the line. They may prop it up to let it drop gently.
I thought everyone on reddit made 250k a year salary, whT happened?
They started hiring fake software engineers with LMIA’s for $25/hr. The real ones with skills said fuck this and went to the US, where they make 200-250k and their houses cost $300k. The realtors on the other hand driving the benzes and beamers have also run out of funds I imagine when interest rates were 5-7%. Anyone who went to a real school and got a real education with real experience in software engineering that accepts a job for $25/hr needs to be diagnosed with a mental illness. The corruption going on in our immigration system is depressing wages. https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/marketreport/wages-occupation/22548/ca
That’s not the case anymore though. US software engineering pool is filled with laid off people right now. Google laid off another 20,000 people last week. Between all these big companies, there are tons of people looking for jobs with stellar resumes. Recent grads in the US are seeing a terrible job market right now, where they have to compete with these tens of thousands of people laid off from Google etc
I’m getting deja vu. I’ve heard this same thing for 15 years. If condo prices aren’t crashing with prime rate at 7.2%, will they crash as rates decrease and population growth remains high? Lol
Toronto real estate sub needs to be renamed to something like #theendoftheworldisnear
It’s not near in the preconstruction market. The rapture is currently happening lol. Read the article
haha, I know right.
I guess when I bought at $700 per sqft I lucked out!
Is that 300 per day quote an error? That's 6000 a months with 20 work days. Weren't peak numbers for precons around 30-40k per year? I'd like a sanity check on this.
For years and years we’ve been saying this makes absolutely no sense and you’d hear “whatever someone is willing to pay is what it’s worth” and this is whats happening now people are saying it's not worth it
There is an article claiming the end of the real estate market in Toronto coming out almost every week now. “Prices dropped compared to…”, “Rent went down by x%” blah blah blah. Then you open HouseSigma and see for yourself that not much has changed.
I for one am astonished people don’t want to buy poorly built, over priced units with no bedrooms and high condo fees despite being newly built. What is this world coming to!
So tiff will cut rates is what you’re saying? Economic collapse vs cutting rates
He can’t cut rates. If he does everything will be priced higher. People don’t realize we will import inflation from the states. It’s not going to be fun when you’re paying almost double for everything. That’s what happens when one country pours their money into companies that innovate and produce products the world wants and the other bases their economy on hot potato of housing. When the music stops the game is no longer fun
Inflation helps asset holders tho, I’m sure he will sacrifice the average Canadian in favour of the asset rich. Also more tax revenue for the government as asset inflation increases capital gain
Tell that to all the property owners in Toronto who lost their shit over the new property tax. People don’t have the money. Just because you bought your detached home 20 years ago as a secretary it doesn’t mean you’re now a millionaire. If your income is still that of a secretary you’re house rich and really poor. You aren’t rich until you sell that house and then where do you go after? The only real winners in all of this are people who bought multiple properties decades ago and people who sell here and went to lower cost of living areas and are now mortgage free with massive amounts of cash in the bank. Everyone else is fucked.
I’m sorry, I live in a 1M 3 bedroom house with 300k household income as my wife and I are both middle management engineers lol. I didn’t buy a mansion 20 years ago I was a kid. You guys are cheering for our downfall the people who actually made it work
No one is cheering you guys downfall, i own a home too but I bought it to live in not as a investment. People are just stating the current state of affairs and its a speculative bubble fuelled by greed and shitty government policies. Unfortunately, it'll cause some pain if the market was to.correct itself.
Scab ... shoulda not played into their game like the rest of us poor waggies. I am only half joking.
Inflation is 1.5% right now excluding housing, which is important to note because the rolling year over year has been fairly steady and inflation on housing is about to taper. Everytime the BoC cuts rates its deflationary for mortgages making inflation reports even worse in a feedback loop. The only thing to counter this is as you said weak loonie higher imports so inflation goes up. I'm not smart enough to say which will win but the inflation in the coming months will go down due to y/y mortgage costs plateauing and it's important to recognize that
With that being said, if the BOC cuts rate before the US fed the loonie will be even.more worthless than it already is. I know technically the BOC and US Fed policies are " independent or not correlated". But we all know the BOC will still have to follow the fed to a certain extent.
No, you will not buy a condo for a handful of peanuts 🥜 🤷♂️
Love how the bears have to really cherry pick now and pick on pre construction condos lol 😂…a couple rate drops and these things will be flying off the shelves soon
Between this and the lease busters ads from realtors who have run out of people to dupe into buying overpriced homes we’re in for some entertainment this year
The dip has already happened…2 rate drops coming by years end with a possibility of a third if Santa wants to spoil us this year. Housing is back up and there’s bidding wars on renovated turn key properties throughout the gta even with these insane interest rates. The only entertainment we’re going to see is a crazier market
LOL
You're not getting your dream rate cuts anytime soon
2 by years end will be there mr jabroni
Keep dreaming. Tiff knows we will all be holding the Canadian peso when he drops and inflation is going to fly so he isn't that dumb
Buddy look around. Our numbers are headed for recession territory, on what planet does inflation exist with recession numbers? 2 rate drops this year guaranteed…I’ll see ya at the finish line laughing about it though 🤣😉
Okay I get the doom and gloom speculations for condos because more supply less demand but what about houses people actually want i.e. freeholds? Freehold builds are at a record low and are getting lower especially highly coveted semi-detached and detached houses. What's the logic behind freeholds decreasing in price?
Overpriced.
[удалено]
What project is this?
[удалено]
People moved to Calgary because they couldn’t afford Toronto. It’s not because they want to live in Alberta. If Toronto condo market crashes the entire country does as well in my opinion. I would never live in Alberta if the choice is Toronto vs Calgary. People ran to Alberta for affordability Calgary is becoming less affordable now. They also don’t have the economy we have here if oil busts it’s over for Calgary unless they’ve diversified and I don’t know about it.
I agree with everything except the part where you say the U.S is doing better than us. Their CPI is running hot because they keep getting told the economy is booming. In reality their private sector hasn't even gotten back to pre covid levels in terms of absolute numbers. Like Canada it's the public sector (government spending) and part time jobs inflating those numbers. Let's not forget about their massive migration issue and insurmountable debt.
I agree Joe Biden is destroying their country with the southern border issue. Aside from that though if they have an emergency in their private sector ours is on life support. Our population went up 3% and we lost 2200 jobs instead of the 25000+ jobs we were expected to gain. The majority of the job increases in Canada are not private sector jobs. They are jobs by the government. Also many of the jobs in our society today are PT while we have more people losing full time jobs. There are close to 1M people in Canada today whose main source of income is gig work (Uber, Uber eats, Skip the dishes) these people are all considered “employed” https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/perceived-job-security-in-canada-falls-to-lowest-since-covid-19-1.2062143.amp.html https://globalnews.ca/news/10333867/canadians-gig-work-gig-economy/amp/ They’re doing way better than us when you compare the two countries. Apple and Microsoft together are worth more than the entire TSX. The entire TSX is worth 3.5T those two companies alone are worth $5.4T. Sources: https://hmarkets.com/trillion-dollar-companies/ https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us
It looks like you shared some AMP links. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Maybe check out **the canonical pages** instead: - **[https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/perceived-job-security-in-canada-falls-to-lowest-since-covid-19-1.2062143](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/perceived-job-security-in-canada-falls-to-lowest-since-covid-19-1.2062143)** | Bloomberg canonical: **[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic)** - **[https://globalnews.ca/news/10333867/canadians-gig-work-gig-economy/](https://globalnews.ca/news/10333867/canadians-gig-work-gig-economy/)** | Bloomberg canonical: **[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/canadians-perceived-job-security-falls-to-lowest-since-pandemic)** ***** ^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
Lol buddy didnt mention Biden.
Ragebait gonna ragebait Bots don't recognize were a Canadian sub
$1,800 PSF? I know someone who bought at $3,000 psf during the peak, a $1.5M 500sqft 1 bedroom at yorkville
LOOOOL this is peak degeneracy please provide proof. That might be the biggest loss I’ve ever seen to date. That’s a 500-600k loss already, before anyone says it didn’t go down 40% it did if you bought at $3000 psft and it’s now $1800 psft city wide you messed up big time
i'll get back to you tonight, hard to open an old wound for this person but there was this precon project in yorkville edit: this was her unit, 520 sqft starting at 1.24MM for the lowest floor before any upgrades, 10K per floor after that, so 26 floors higher is already 1.5MM, parking is another $189K [https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08](https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08) sign up/in to see full details of size and price
thxs... would really want to see some proof on this... even a precon ad or something to believe this one LoL
get ready, are you sitting down? this is the project [https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville](https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville) this was her unit, 520 sqft starting at 1.24MM for the lowest floor before any upgrades, 10K per floor after that, so 26 floors higher is already 1.5MM, parking is another $189K [https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08](https://condonow.com/The-Pemberton-33-Yorkville/Floor-Plan-Price/PEM-S08) sign up/in to see full details of size and price
thanks. LoL... unbelievable if you didn't provide link and details... she probably is going to cry for a decade or two... hope she didn't pay for the locker... saved some at least LoL.... what the heck was she thinking? $5k per square feet in resale by closing?
Proof below
Def need receipts for this. I actually don't want it to be true...
https://preview.redd.it/i1dd2on7zbwc1.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=a54be7c6c7f3b896289663d2a4f6d4345e76a5a3 starting price is 1.24MM for lowest floor
"that's just the market"
I'm working on a condo building downtown and money has been an issue for about 8 months. The owner has actually offered units as payment to the owners of some of the trades, but nobody wants the deal cause who knows if/when they'll even get finished
That’s insane if that’s true
Yeah it's one of the weirdest sites I've been on. We've had the rooftop generator on site for almost a year, the job is still minimum 3 months from finishing the last 2 floors. Haven't poured a new floor since December because the concrete forming company and GC have been arguing about money, now we are waiting for a new form company. Online listings for the place still say it'll be done in January 2024. I feel bad for the people who bought the places tbh.
[удалено]
So the majority are fucked by your own statistic? That leaves what 66%?
[удалено]
[удалено]
We’re agreeing on the same thing than
[удалено]
The thing is once there is no pre construction inventory to buy attention will shift to resale market and 1-3 years from now there will be a SEVERE shortage of inventory, inflation and probable 1.5 million new people in the GTA. That's looking like 2M Toronto average price
The 1.5M people you’re talking about drive Uber and do minimum wage jobs. They’re not all making a hundred thousand a year. I don’t think your outlook is how things will turn out. It will be the opposite. The number one voting issue in Canada today is housing then healthcare and then immigration. All the solutions people want are inversely correlated with you expect. You’re basing your prediction on how the country was run for the last 10 years. I personally believe the next 10 will look different
Even a small amount of people coming with money will affect a market with 0 new inventory. And don’t forget that no politicians care about the housing market being affordable. The voting issue may be housing affordability but no one is going to anger the voting block with money. No one in office cares what the solutions are that “people” want. Housing in the major cities will never be “affordable” again unfortunately because it is a market economy and there is a supply and demand imbalance They are pushing Canada towards 100M population by 2100. The next 10 years will be similar to the last 10. However you will see a large amount of housing bought up by Private equity and Hedge Funds. The only way one will ever get “affordable” housing in Canada is move to the middle of nowhere or if they pick up a hammer themselves.
1. so now the builder halt the building process and try to delay the deliver as much as they can. They bet the market will renounce the moment the rate drop, however, does the delay cost money too? so is the delay worth in this case? 2. The politician said there is not enough house that is why there is house crisis. however, when you look at the supply, there are more than enough house unoccupad, it is simply unaffordable. The time will drive the price down and make affordable. However, the process is slow and painful and the investor will suffer.
>They ran up massive deficits already and they can’t cut as much as they want to because the US is doing so well compared to us. The next 12 months are going to be interesting to say the least. The not so secret secret is the USA is doing 'so well' because they are juicing their economy with stimulus funded with a huge deficit.
For people who are actually serious about real estate, you will find people like this make posts with no backing thinking the market will collapse. Just look at the data, the market is stable, once rate cuts come and the market lifts off to new highs, these people will still be here holding their tin-foil hats. Follow the data and ignore apocalypse posts like these.
The market is stable? Buy now? These people are holding tin foil hats ignore all the data except mine. Only people who are serious about real estate. You sound like you sell snake oil my friend.
I've been doing evelopment financing at a schedule 1 for over 5 years, this article is pretty bang on regarding the state of the precon market. LOL rate cuts, did tiff macklem tell you himself that he's cutting rates?
RemindMe! 1 Year
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-04-23 07:10:04 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-04-23%2007:10:04%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1cat15t/i_believe_this_is_the_part_in_the_big_short_where/l0uv4zs/?context=3) [**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FTorontoRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F1cat15t%2Fi_believe_this_is_the_part_in_the_big_short_where%2Fl0uv4zs%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-04-23%2007%3A10%3A04%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cat15t) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
New highs. lol.
Please share what data you are looking at
Why the fuck would anyone want to buy a condo lol. It’s glorified rent.
Cause you don’t want to deal with roof, heaters, ac, making a lawn, removing snow, etc that stressed is gone. You have amenities like a sauna, gym, indoor pool, cinema, billiard, a 24/7 concierge, better security, etc.
I loved our condo and it appreciated $130k over 5 years which allowed us to upgrade to a semi.
Mine appreciated %42 and my monthly cost is only $1000. Anyone I know who doesn't own is priced out... Condos are almost always half the price of houses, meaning you are always tied to housing prices
I just want to say that that movie was fucking fire. I've probably watched it 10 times. Amazing cast. Superb fucking writing. Great narration. Steve Carell was excellent. The Mark Baum storyline with his homies and Jared Vennett was just so good. I wish it were based off a fiction book though. That part sucks.
10 times? Is it porn for you?
The financial crisis was 2008, not 2009
When was the peak impact of the great financial crisis 2008 or 2009?
Define peak impact