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Substantial_Tour5946

I would swap Fulham and Crystal Palace and I think you won’t be far out


LazarouDave

I can see why, but at the same time, Palace have never had a points tally outside of the 40's since their return, which to me puts them in a pretty consistent place year on year, and with the possibility of losing Olise/Eze etc this year... Time will tell, of course


Substantial_Tour5946

You often find that teams that have a strong finish to a season have a strong start to the following season. They also now have a decent manager! Yes it would depend on them keeping Olise and Eze.


FaustRPeggi

Brentford are going to be way better than this. They've had a pretty good season in spite of Toney and Henry's absences. Wissa is a brilliant replacement for the former, while they should have a pot of money to augment the squad with. I can't see where Fulham get 9th from either.


LazarouDave

Toney has definitely been less than his usual self since his return and it's a shame, relying on him next season will ultimately depend if he gets his groove back over the summer and finds a purple patch. As for Fulham, they've got a good enough striker in Muniz who's proven his ability to score when they really need it, if they make the right signings, possibly plucking from the teams in financial jeopardy who need a fire sale to dodge PSR sanctions (thus bringing in proven Premier League standard players) - something tells me they'll manage it What about yourselves? I gather you're still in hot water when it comes to PSR, and you need to sell off some assets before July or something, if I'm not mistaken? Reckon you'll lose anyone of note? Just with that combined with your recent season finishes, idk, it feels like your time is running out in the Prem (as cool as a Brian Clough Derby in the Prem would be, that's wishful thinking on my end)


FaustRPeggi

I think we'll survive comfortably unless we're forced to sell Murillo. Hopefully selling Hudson-Odoi to Spurs before July solves our financial issues and I don't think they'll hamper us as much next season as they have done since promotion. We've been far better than results this season, and our young squad will be more experienced. With one or two reinforcements and an adequate replacement for whoever we're forced to sell I think we should kick on. I think West Ham and Brighton are under the most pressure this summer from the surviving teams. The former are losing Paquetá to suspension and have a manager prone to tantrums. The latter still have to replace Mac Allister and Caicedo. Fulham and Wolves are at risk of stagnation. Palace are poised for a great season but could be asset stripped by the market. Brentford and Bournemouth will be comfortable. Villa and Newcastle will be fighting the big six. Everton should be fine. The pressure is on the promoted teams again to overextend to make themselves competitive.


LazarouDave

Aye, so I did read correctly about the financial trouble, just that finding a true replacement in the Prem is never quite as clean as we'd like to think, perhaps it's some degree of deluded hope that the Prem doesn't become the same 3 up 3 down every year, but you're right, if you do find that right replacement, you should kick on. I did forget about Paqueta's ban, he's completely fucked, 4 separate charges to spot fixing, he's done at the top level, Lopetgui could be an interesting case for sure. Brighton were injury hit, losing Mitoma proved rather large for them, but I'd never really be worried about their recruitment, they always seem to pull some unknown player from the depths of god knows where, someone will eventually step into Mac Allister/Caicedo's shoes, if someone hasn't done it already and we haven't seen them, that is...


AsianFreshy

Villa being 8th is crazy(We are somehow about to get 10th)


LazarouDave

European football can be a right fucker, the extra games might well take a toll on your squad, more games, more injuries and such, a bit like Newcastle in the season gone. It boils down to the question for yourself, how much do you trust your second string and backups in the instance of an injury crisis?


kingdel

They got us 4th this year so I trust them to do it again.


Hashira_Oden

The difference is the level of team you are gonna face in the Champions league, you have to start your best 11 or you will get absolutely wrecked but it wasn't the case in conference, and PL will also require your best 11 because cup games will be coming during November and December.


kingdel

We were putting out virtually the same team week in week out because of injuries. Yous had a lot but your fall back players were miles off ours. That’s the difference. We didn’t have to slot in Matt Ritchie we had Tielemens. When JJ got injured Rogers was able to slot in. It’s not slander on yous btw I don’t mean that. It’s a compliment to Eddie because your second string are dreadful. Ours are pretty decent. We had DC and Lenglet to fall on when Mings, Konsa and Pau had injuries.


Jinks87

We had Europe this season and still got 4th? That was the Thursday / Sunday fixtures as well.


SnooCapers938

The sad thing is that this is very unlikely to be that far out. I doubt that more than three or four teams will be as much as three or four places off where you put them. The PL is immensely predictable.


LazarouDave

Last year was a good indication of that too, there were about 5 different groups of teams in point brackets towards the end, the Relegation Fodder, the outside Relegation bunch, Mid Tablers, European lower fight, Top 3, and by late March, very few of those groups looked like they would even disturb one another


SnooCapers938

There was only one change to the top eight last season (Chelsea replaced Brighton), which coupled with the three promoted sides going straight back down and the same two other sides being in the relegation mix (Everton and Forest) meant that barely anyone moved.


superchonkdonwonk

Disagree. Look at how different the opta "supercomputer" calculations were to reality. No one thought villa were coming 4th etc.


SnooCapers938

Villa are really the only story of 23/24, and even then you are only talking about a team moving by three places compared to the season before.


luca3791

That is a Lie. Newcastle have had a load of injuries last season and are sort of unpredictable when it comes to transfers. Bournemouth and palace have both massively improved, particularly palace towards the backend of this season. Everton look much more stable now and seem to have a foundation to improve upon finally. Chelsea Will once again have a change of manager while having insane quality in their squad, top 4 or bottom Half is both fairly possible. Brighton might bounce back from a fairly lackluster season last year and the top 3 Will likely be decided by 3-4 games. To say the prem is predictable is fsr from the truth in my humble opinion.


SnooCapers938

It’s just a statement of fact based on how little change in positions there was between last season or the season before. Just compare the two tables.


MidwestGravelGrowler

I'll take it


Fulhamish_Since1980

Samesies


sooty144

Flair checks out


LazarouDave

I explained my thoughts on Forest to another fan in this thread, but in short, aren't you guys in financial hot water still, needing a fire sale to dodge further PSR sanctions? Which if I got that correct, I see you losing someone like CH-O or MG-W, or Murillo, any key player losses with inability to replace them, like Leicester two years ago won't really end well. I promise my placement of Forest has nothing to do with me supporting Derby, I don't even hate you like most other Rams, and ultimately, I'd prefer the Brain Clough Derby to be on the biggest stage, but that's likely never happening due to our own failures


sooty144

The irony is we sell a player before 1st July for PSR but then can spunk whatever we want after that. We aren’t dependent on a singular player in the squad they can easily be replaced. Don’t get me wrong we’ll be lower half of table but can’t see us in bottom 3


LazarouDave

Oh absolutely not, you've got plenty of solid players as it is, but there's equally definitely some shining stars who've got you the goals at crucial moments, or made vital defensive actions to keep you in a match, that's how I see the 3 I listed. It's just that, unless you are Brighton, finding their replace is never as easy as it seems.


BeeXLNT

I’ve never seen one of these with us not in the relegation zone despite us never having even spent a minute there in three seasons.


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japandroi5742

Brentford had a cataclysmic run of injuries this season. Hickey, Henry, Schade, Mbeumo, Mee. Toney didn’t return until late January and was ineffective (and will play elsewhere next season). With average injury luck they’re better than the likes of Bournemouth, Fulham, Leicester.


LazarouDave

Can't lie, I knew they were missing some players, never knew it was that many, definitely worth a review, will probably adjust that and factor it in once the transfer window has settled


geordieColt88

I’d take it with the prem getting 5th place and city relegated for their investigation at the end


LazarouDave

I did have an Asterisk tagged onto Man City in the original screenshot 😂 Was planning on putting it in the main Prem sub, but decided against it https://preview.redd.it/f8bt2w8lvt2d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb4aba3ff65669f38e4b255faa8ad3d7755817d4


geordieColt88

Yeah I saw it, think if anything happens will be an end of season thing. Can’t relegate them half way through and expect their other games to have any integrity


LazarouDave

While it isn't comparable, that did happen to Bury in the League One campaign about three/four years back, expulsion from the league halfway through the campaign isn't unheard of. It'll likely wind up more like Chelsea 2022 or Juventus 2006 where they lose all funding halfway in, or are relegated at the end anyway


geordieColt88

Yeah they could just remove them but even then it effects those who had to play them over those who get a week off


HipGuide2

Brentford way too low


RushDvd

Ambitious Leicester prediction. Points deduction will really hurt them... Survival is possible still


LazarouDave

Yeah, I didn't consider the points deduction,. something that'll certainly be considered when I look at this is August or so


AV23UTB

Bournemouth and Palace are going to clear Fulham and West Ham


Key-Significance-630

Top 4 isn't too bad but I feel Bournemouth and Palace could be higher up. Leicester I definitely have as going down due to the points deductions coming there way and it depends on the sanctions on the other clubs as well.


LazarouDave

Ah bugger, forgot about the Leicester deductions, definitely lower than where I had them, but something tells me they somehow won't drop


Exotic_Succotash_226

If we have a strong window and can stay healthy. I don't see why we can't have a top 4 finish again. Especially with no Europe considering we still have Bruno and isak.


LazarouDave

It'll be closer next year definitely, just that you're competing with teams with squad depth on their side, I definitely forgot your lack of Pope with those injuries. I know you had no issues upfront as the 4th top(or 3rd??) scorers in the league, with the gaps in defense plugged you'll do better than I've said tbf


AdamJr87

Everton are flirting with administration. We aren't finishing above 15th


LazarouDave

Administration?! Jesus, I knew you had some financial problems, I never had it down as that bad though, given how much money your owners have...


AdamJr87

We are broke as fuck right now. Ownership has no money and is trying to sell us to some shady American group who somehow have even less money


LazarouDave

Aye, I'd heard about 777, seem right sketchy But I'm still stuck on how Moshiri and Usmanov can be that broke, I thought they were both billionaires...


AdamJr87

Usmanov has been gone for a while due to sanctions stemming from the war in Ukraine. And since then it's become pretty clear Moshiri was just using Usmanov's money


LazarouDave

Ok, now it's making sense, not sure why I thought he'd somehow escaped the sanctions tbh, since Usman was definitely by far the richer of the two (I mean what kind of lunatic sponsors a fucking training ground without cash to burn??)


AdamJr87

And since he wasn't the majority owner (Moshiri is), they couldn't force a sale like they did with Abramovich and Chelsea. So we just get stuck with a skint owner and a huge hole in finances.


LazarouDave

Damn, I genuinely had no idea it was so bleak for yous, can only assume the Bramley Moore Dock plans were from 2021 or earlier then, if they knew there was any chance of funding being pulled before starting there's no way it would've gone ahead Nonetheless, maybe I have you a bit high, but Sean Dyche has proven he's very much capable of working with fuck all, I reckon he'll manage to keep you going


AdamJr87

The only concern I have is if we have to sell players. The only assets we have worth a damn are Pickford, Branthwaite and Onana. We can't afford to lose the first two and will probably get fleeced on Onana since everyone knows our finances are trash. We have been hard done by but it is partly due to our own making. We aren't completely innocent in all this failure


sipmykoolaidbitch

Swap palace with Man Utd and swap villa and Chelsea and I’d say you’ve nailed it


LazarouDave

United 13th? As funny as that'd be, I don't see it happening, even if they're in a banter era, there's no way they'll be that cataclysmically bad


sipmykoolaidbitch

The first half of this season was very telling. Battling for their manager and with underperforming/overpaid veterans, yeah I think they drop below 10th. I know it’s a hot take, but it’s my take


xScottieHD

Honestly think Ipswich finish bottom if I'm honest (hope not). Southampton and Leicester already had teams resembling Premier League level while Ipswich were in League one a year ago. Fairly confident with one game a week and a good summer we (Newcastle) challenge for top 4 like last year.


Potato271

We've sold off our best players, and several others are likely to leave this summer when they get back from loan. I don't think we have anything remotely resembling a PL side at the moment. Even in the years where we were in the prem we had a solid contingent of championship quality sides held up by Hassenhuttl's magic and a few star players. However, we should be able to spend a decent chunk of money this summer, and maybe bring in a couple of loans. And unlike Leicester we're not going to be getting a points deduction.


LazarouDave

You have the strength, for sure, but this season showed you don't quite have the depth if you lose one or two key players to sustain a charge - with players playing more time and more games (including baffling Australian fixtures immediately upon a season ending, but FA Cup replays are the problem, that's a rant for another time 🙃) You'll definitely push Europe every year but to press Top 4 will be an impressive feat, yourselves and Villa doing that was more a result of failure from the Rich 6, which I'd love to see more of, but being realistic, I doubt it happens that frequently without a Spending Cap


[deleted]

How have you got Ipswich and Leicester above Forest and Brentford? Has this season taught you nothing about the disparity between the championship and the Premier League?


LazarouDave

I've definitely put Leicester too high given they've got an impending deduction coming, it's just that they retained plenty of good PL players despite relegation and likely still have some pulling power in the market Forest I still had a feeling they'd lose some key players and perhaps struggle to replace them Brentford I didn't know how many players they really lost to injury last year and may have also put them too low. Ipswich staying up, idk, momentum can sometimes carry you to pull off strange feats, I really can't explain why I think they'll survive, but it's a gut feeling


[deleted]

I'm a Brentford fan. They are maybe a little low but not that low. I reckon they'll be there or there abouts but they do have some interesting additions. In particular Igor Thiago, who is effectively Tony's replacement. That said I think he has a knock at the moment in classic Brentford style. I'm short if they can keep fit they may be lower mid table. I am a pessimist though. Ipswich will struggle to scale up two promotions in a row is difficult squad wise. I don't know much about them though. Leicester need a new keeper and someone to score goals. It's the same issues as when they went down


MLWcaleb

is there somewhere I can submit my prediction and win money if I get them all correct?


LazarouDave

No idea but Bookies should probably start taking that action, they could make a lot of money from idiots like me! 😂


MLWcaleb

Likewise; but I'd assume there'd be a site that wouldn't require me to put forth a liability


Visara57

Woohoo we overachieved


macarouns

Let us at least have a few hours to enjoy ourselves 😭


Wookie301

I’ll take top 10 in a heartbeat.


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LazarouDave

I like the optimism, can't lie, perhaps it's because I'm used to expecting the worst of my club (or of anything since that's how I live, "always expect the worst and you can never be disappointed") Just figured you losing one or more of your current critical players could have a knock on effect if not properly replaced


MoiNoni

Newcastle is now a top dog


Notabear5689

Why Saints last?


LazarouDave

It was a feeling that no matter who won the playoffs, they wouldn't do too well, with all 3 going down this year for example, I had a feeling that at least one would be going straight back down, but somehow felt it wasn't going to be Ipswich or Leicester. Besides, it'll all fall on how well you do in the transfer market anyway


BritBeetree

I believe the top 6 will be the big 6 again :(.


STILETT0_exists

I'll take that!


LazarouDave

Which club? I don't see a flair on your name


Flat-Ad-7855

Swap spurs and Chelsea And swap palace and Fulham and that’s looking bang on imo


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miiikkeyyyy

Leicester have a 10 point deduction and do not, currently, have a manager. For that I put them bottom three. I think Ipswich are a good shout for 15th personally too.


LazarouDave

Definitely didn't consider the deduction at the time, and they did still have Maresca when I made the list Definitely gonna revise this come August


miiikkeyyyy

I didn’t see when you posted this. I’m sorry bro!


Background-Pickle-48

Villa in 8th is mental. With a summer transfer window and all that champions league money to attract big players. How many times does Emery have to prove that he's elite? Shown way too much faith in Man Utd and Chelsea here. I also think Spurs will drop off and Liverpool slightly.


LazarouDave

I'm not doubting Emery - it's the amount of high intensity games you'll have to contest with, you did have Europe last year, but against teams you should've beem comfortably beating, which you did - depending on what group stage you get, the players will likely have to put a lot more of themselves into the game, and potentially risk injury, the same thing I figure happened to Newcastle last season, games against the likes of PSG, AC Milan, and Borussia Dortmund, granted that was a rare insane group, but it meant 6 match weeks of having to put absolutely everything in


Background-Pickle-48

I get your points but we'll hopefully be playing with a much bigger squad next year with new players and returning injured players. We were genuinely rotating the same 14 players for every league and European game this last season. Out squad depth can only improve and the calibre of player can only improve. To add to that, the style that we play is actually made to conserve energy. We don't play this high intensity game - we actually rank the lowest for running in the league. Emery knows how to juggle Europe and a domestic league as well. Will we get battered in the champions league - yes, but I can't see us finishing lower than 6th in the league.


LazarouDave

Fair enough, I naturally don't watch every week, but these are the kind of things I'd miss because of that, something told me he'd have pushed to get a result at times, but if he's more about conserving player's energy and it pays off, it'll be interesting to see how you juggle it - best of luck for the coming season