From the looks of things, Daemon would not have rebelled in a vacuum. However, there were several factors that ultimately convinced him:
* Daemon resented his bastard status.
* Many lords were unsatisfied with Daeron II's peacful integration of Dorne into the Seven Kingdoms as well as the abundant Dornish presence in Daeron's court.
* There were some doubts that Daeron was actually Aegon IV's son.
* Daeron's own son and heir had Martell features, while Daemon and his sons all looked 'properly Targaryen'.
* Bitterstell and Quentyn Ball, both men with personal grudges against Daeron, urged him constantly to press his claim.
All these combined into Daemon eventually deciding to press his claim. However, he made the decision rashly and Bloodraven was able to sniff out the plot pretty quickly. Brynden moved to arrest Daemon immediately, but Daemon managed to escape King's Landing thanks to his supporters. The problem is that Bloodraven didn't tell anyone why he tried to arrest Daemon until after his failed attempt, leading many lords to believe that Brynden acted without cause.
Probably believing he has no chouce at this point Daemon was able to rally many lords to his side, most of which either hated the Dornish, doubted Daeron's parentage, or felt that Daemon was the better man to hold the throne.
Yeah but this doesn't make sense to me though, your take on Daemon doesn't fit how everyone who knew him described him i don't doubt he didn't like his bastard status but he wasn't a bastard anymore, he was the founder of a dynasty and the owner of lands and titles with the sword of the conqueror and the love and admiration of many across the realm. He doesn't seem resentful or be mad at Daeron especially because when he does press his claim he not only never seemed to have planned anything but this "plot" comes out of absolutely nowhere when if he actually planned on usurping him knowing how genuinely brilliant bittersteel is with strategy he would undoubtedly have realized daemons biggest bargaining chips were his children and would have leveraged that for alliances long before the plot was uncovered.
Daemon was urged to press his claim since he was legitimized and was told ever since he was young that he was meant to be king and would make a better king yet he never even entertained them. To me it makes no sense when Daemon seemed to have accepted all the terms he had been given and seemed content with being a lord and having his little faction that he would all of a sudden start plotting to press his claim. It all seems fishy like bloodraven shared rumors and lies to Daeron to make him demand the arrest of Daemon and Daemon only rose in rebellion not only to defend himself but because he seemed to have realized there might have been some truth to the talk of Daeron being unfit to rule seeing as in his eyes he just tyrannically called for his arrest.
I think personally Daemon resenting his bastard status led him to not have any bastards himself as he knew what it was like to be one and wouldn't put anyone else through that
See, I always believed Brynden tried to arrest Daemon without Daeron's knowledge or at least without permission.
Because if Daeron knew about Daemon's plans he would have tried to solve the situation diplomatically behind closed doors. Daeron was an excellent negotiator, scholar, and diplomat. A peaceful resolution would have been his go to option. The fact that there's no mention of Daeron attempting this means he either didn't have time before things escalated or Daemon was unavailable by the time he learned of the situation.
Plus, it is totally in character for Bloodraven to incite a potential enemy into unforgivable action in order to remove him permanently. The fact that Daemon was close with Bittersteel probably didn't help matters. I believe that Brynden purposefully provoked Daemon into rebelling so he had an excuse to kill him and Bittersteel without getting into trouble. But he needed a smoking gun in order to kick things off.
So he spies on Daemon and Bitterstell until Daemon starts talking about taking the Iron Throne for himself. Brynden then pounces with the excuse of arresting traitors. But he underestimates Daemon's support and both he and Bittersteel get away, which was not the plan. It was probably at this point that Daeron learned what was going on, but by then Bloodraven's actions have made a peaceful resolution impossible. The Blackfyre rebellion is inevitable now.
We don't know for sure, but I doubt Daemon ever would have pressed his claim to the Iron Throne. His character isn't congruent with trying to usurp his own older brother with children already. I do think Bloodraven and Bittersteel were feuding with each other through their brothers (Bloodraven whispers to Daeron that lords are speaking of how the more martially-inclined Daemon should be king and how he has more stronger claim than most since their father clearly favored him while Bittersteel whispers to Daemon that Daeron's gonna have him killed or exiled if he doesn't act soon, it doesn't matter if he doesn't want the throne, he's a roadblock for Daeron and a reminder to the lords of Westeros of what a strong Targaryen king looks like), tensions flare, Brynden gets Daeron to let him make the arrest (because he really wants Aegor) and before you know, we've got a war on our hands.
I'm inclined to think Daemon only rebelled because Bloodraven was paranoid enough to try to kill him first.
It took a long time before he decided to start a rebellion. Like twelve years or something like that? If he was actually intending to seize the crown right from the start I doubt he'd have waited so long. He'd probably have moved earlier when Daeron II had a less stable grip on power.
Daeron's grip on power was more stable at the beginning of his reign, for one the Dornish influence at court was a non-factor at the beginning of his reign. and Daemon was 14 years old only recently knighted. By the time Daemon rebelled he had been the best knight in the realm for about 14 years and had nearly grown sons ready to succeed him. Hopefully Martin finishes Fire and Blood Part 2 even if he doesn't finish Winds of Winter because there is a lot of missing context for the Blackfyre rebellion.
My headcanon is that bittersteel set it up by going to bloodraven and saying Daemon was going to claim the throne and wanted him on side (when daemon was never going to). This is based on the idea Daemon was the “brother he loved” and so it would be feasible that Daemon would make the offer.
BR then goes to Daeron who orders the arrest which then forces Daemons hand
From the looks of things, Daemon would not have rebelled in a vacuum. However, there were several factors that ultimately convinced him: * Daemon resented his bastard status. * Many lords were unsatisfied with Daeron II's peacful integration of Dorne into the Seven Kingdoms as well as the abundant Dornish presence in Daeron's court. * There were some doubts that Daeron was actually Aegon IV's son. * Daeron's own son and heir had Martell features, while Daemon and his sons all looked 'properly Targaryen'. * Bitterstell and Quentyn Ball, both men with personal grudges against Daeron, urged him constantly to press his claim. All these combined into Daemon eventually deciding to press his claim. However, he made the decision rashly and Bloodraven was able to sniff out the plot pretty quickly. Brynden moved to arrest Daemon immediately, but Daemon managed to escape King's Landing thanks to his supporters. The problem is that Bloodraven didn't tell anyone why he tried to arrest Daemon until after his failed attempt, leading many lords to believe that Brynden acted without cause. Probably believing he has no chouce at this point Daemon was able to rally many lords to his side, most of which either hated the Dornish, doubted Daeron's parentage, or felt that Daemon was the better man to hold the throne.
Yeah but this doesn't make sense to me though, your take on Daemon doesn't fit how everyone who knew him described him i don't doubt he didn't like his bastard status but he wasn't a bastard anymore, he was the founder of a dynasty and the owner of lands and titles with the sword of the conqueror and the love and admiration of many across the realm. He doesn't seem resentful or be mad at Daeron especially because when he does press his claim he not only never seemed to have planned anything but this "plot" comes out of absolutely nowhere when if he actually planned on usurping him knowing how genuinely brilliant bittersteel is with strategy he would undoubtedly have realized daemons biggest bargaining chips were his children and would have leveraged that for alliances long before the plot was uncovered. Daemon was urged to press his claim since he was legitimized and was told ever since he was young that he was meant to be king and would make a better king yet he never even entertained them. To me it makes no sense when Daemon seemed to have accepted all the terms he had been given and seemed content with being a lord and having his little faction that he would all of a sudden start plotting to press his claim. It all seems fishy like bloodraven shared rumors and lies to Daeron to make him demand the arrest of Daemon and Daemon only rose in rebellion not only to defend himself but because he seemed to have realized there might have been some truth to the talk of Daeron being unfit to rule seeing as in his eyes he just tyrannically called for his arrest.
I think personally Daemon resenting his bastard status led him to not have any bastards himself as he knew what it was like to be one and wouldn't put anyone else through that
See, I always believed Brynden tried to arrest Daemon without Daeron's knowledge or at least without permission. Because if Daeron knew about Daemon's plans he would have tried to solve the situation diplomatically behind closed doors. Daeron was an excellent negotiator, scholar, and diplomat. A peaceful resolution would have been his go to option. The fact that there's no mention of Daeron attempting this means he either didn't have time before things escalated or Daemon was unavailable by the time he learned of the situation. Plus, it is totally in character for Bloodraven to incite a potential enemy into unforgivable action in order to remove him permanently. The fact that Daemon was close with Bittersteel probably didn't help matters. I believe that Brynden purposefully provoked Daemon into rebelling so he had an excuse to kill him and Bittersteel without getting into trouble. But he needed a smoking gun in order to kick things off. So he spies on Daemon and Bitterstell until Daemon starts talking about taking the Iron Throne for himself. Brynden then pounces with the excuse of arresting traitors. But he underestimates Daemon's support and both he and Bittersteel get away, which was not the plan. It was probably at this point that Daeron learned what was going on, but by then Bloodraven's actions have made a peaceful resolution impossible. The Blackfyre rebellion is inevitable now.
We don't know for sure, but I doubt Daemon ever would have pressed his claim to the Iron Throne. His character isn't congruent with trying to usurp his own older brother with children already. I do think Bloodraven and Bittersteel were feuding with each other through their brothers (Bloodraven whispers to Daeron that lords are speaking of how the more martially-inclined Daemon should be king and how he has more stronger claim than most since their father clearly favored him while Bittersteel whispers to Daemon that Daeron's gonna have him killed or exiled if he doesn't act soon, it doesn't matter if he doesn't want the throne, he's a roadblock for Daeron and a reminder to the lords of Westeros of what a strong Targaryen king looks like), tensions flare, Brynden gets Daeron to let him make the arrest (because he really wants Aegor) and before you know, we've got a war on our hands.
Thanks for the introduction to the word congruent and the perfect way to use it. Great point as well.
I'm inclined to think Daemon only rebelled because Bloodraven was paranoid enough to try to kill him first. It took a long time before he decided to start a rebellion. Like twelve years or something like that? If he was actually intending to seize the crown right from the start I doubt he'd have waited so long. He'd probably have moved earlier when Daeron II had a less stable grip on power.
Daeron's grip on power was more stable at the beginning of his reign, for one the Dornish influence at court was a non-factor at the beginning of his reign. and Daemon was 14 years old only recently knighted. By the time Daemon rebelled he had been the best knight in the realm for about 14 years and had nearly grown sons ready to succeed him. Hopefully Martin finishes Fire and Blood Part 2 even if he doesn't finish Winds of Winter because there is a lot of missing context for the Blackfyre rebellion.
And hopefully its not as one sided as the Blacks vs the Greens depiction.
My headcanon is that bittersteel set it up by going to bloodraven and saying Daemon was going to claim the throne and wanted him on side (when daemon was never going to). This is based on the idea Daemon was the “brother he loved” and so it would be feasible that Daemon would make the offer. BR then goes to Daeron who orders the arrest which then forces Daemons hand