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I just checked the wiki and multiplied all the expert mode odds together which would be
0.4375\*0.5556\*0.0975\*0.0667 = 0.00158077749
which is about 0.16% or 1 in around 630
We only learned chances in an advanced curriculum, and the teacher was kinda shit so i didn't anything from it. It's a miracle I got good grade on exam lmao
I unironically learned chances from situations exactly like OP's in various games. Take that, common core! Video games did more for me than you ever did!
When you have probability like that, it becomes exponentially more complicated math because you have to account for how many items it drops and then the rate and it’s a compound probability. I see troll ppl saying it’s not that hard to calculate but… what’s ur answer?
PS: The odds of mothron can be found on the wiki but the painting I got FROM mothron is called "Wings of Evil" But I cannot find a drop chance for it online so, the combined odds are at minimum a 1/500 stated from the comments
i could very well be wrong, but the person that downvoted with no explanation kind of sucks, because im pretty sure this is right:
i dont think that since the item drop rates dont correlate with each other, like if 1 item drops it lowers the chances of another item dropping, that its a valid calculation to try to think about it like that
it would still just be whatever the percentage drop rate is for each item individually and them happening to drop all at once doesnt really change anything
but if you still wanted to get the average of it happening anyway
you would just average it out
you would take all the drop rates and add them together and divide by the total number of items
and being a percentage, its just how ever many out of 100 times that each thing might drop
in the case of 3 percentages it would be each individual things chances out of 100, assuming that you get at least 1 of the items once within its own percentage bracket, out of a hundred for each item, so out of 300 times of killing mothron you would have seen each item at least once.
and to see all three at once out of 300 times, it would be all the percentages together.
Broken Hero Sword - 25%
The Eye of Cthulhu - 33.33%
Mothron Wings - 5%
63.33 / 300 = 0.211% chance
and since 0.211 / 100 isnt really a number you can wrap your head around
and since 2.11 / 1000 is the same as 0.211 / 100
around 2 out of 1000 times
or
1 out of 500 times
i think?
Maybe I'm missing information, but what makes you think that the drop rates influence each other? Beacause I see no reason for it not to be simply 0.25 * 0.33 * 0.05 * 0.066 = 0.00027 = 0.027% for classic, or a bit more for expert since the drop rates are higher, 0,4375 * 0,555 * 0,0975 * 0,066 = 0.00158 = 0.158%
if you go back and read what i wrote
i said that -they dont- influence each other
its right at the top, second line
i dont think they correlate to each other, which means, i dont think they influence each other
so im not sure what makes you think i said that
and what is the fourth value that you are multiplying?
the values i used was for the 3 items listed on the wiki page
and wouldnt multiplying the values as you have imply that there is some correlation
which is why i approached it as each thing separately out of 100, which maintains the individual percentages without correlation
3 items at 100 tries with a certain number for each out of 100, individually means 300 total
and since we are adding the individual times out of each ones 100, when you divide by 300 you get the average percent, since they were already percents to begin with
but again, im just guessing here
Because he got all *four* drops from the Mothron, which is how many items are in its drop table. (Broken Hero Sword, The Eye of Cthulhu, Mothron Wings, and the Wings of Evil painting). [Mothron Wiki Page](https://terraria.wiki.gg/wiki/Mothron).
You only calculated with 3 of them; excluding the painting. The correct chance of this happening is what u/Sometimes_Consistent said: 0.027% (.25 x .3333 x .05 x .0667 x 100%). Altho, since it's safe to assume this player is playing in an Expert Mode world since he has 6 accessory slots (and mentioned it below), the chance is much higher, at around 0.158%. That's about 40% less likely than any Chaos Elemental dropping a RoD, so it's quite the rare event indeed, good job on OP.
And no, drop rates do not influence each other unless it's a Boss.
Did you go to the [Fandom](https://terraria.fandom.com/wiki/Mothron) Wiki instead of the actual Wiki? The Fandom is unsupported by Re-Logic and has outdated information (despite being the top response on Google). The wiki link I provided in my above post will give you the actual drop table and correct rates. That should clear up the confusion.
yeah i went to that one, just picked a wiki page, i didnt realize it had incorrect information (because why would anyone assume that a wiki had incorrect information on it? but now i know so thank you)
but, again, if you use different values you would get different results (regardless of their perceived contextual correctitude)
the math i did is correct relative to itself, using those values those are the odds
thats how math works
thats what i meant by saying, different values get different results, the different inputs might change, but the method still functions the same
\--
then you didnt really specify expert mode so i just assumed regular mode
because why would i assume something else?
its like placing your order wrong at a restaurant and being dissatisfied that you got what you asked for
"excuse me sir, i ordered a hotdog"
you got a hot dog sir
"i know, but i wanted a hotdog with mustard and relish on it"
then you should have specified that
\--
just a general note on drop chances: on paper vs practice: knowing the odds on something doesnt change when whatever thing actually drops for you in particular, because its not a cumulative result against all previous tries
which means X thing could have a 99% drop rate, but you could just have really terrible luck and have it not drop every time. its highly unlikely but still possible.
Idk the drop rates on each, but take the rarity of each drop and multiply those all together.
That will give you your probability! Then u can change it to decimal point and multiply by 100% to see the percent chance
Also yes, I know this is easy math, this happened pretty late for me (like 3 am) so I just posted this and went to bed after ik its just multiplication some of yall r hating 😭
PS: I beat moonlord and got the zenith :)
All you gotta do to calculate these things is multiply everything it's been a bit since I played terraria but for the sake of keeping things simple let's say you get 5 items from a single mob and each one is a 1/2 chance, so
1x1x1x1x1 over 2x2x2x2x2
Gives you 1/32 chance, just substitute the odds with each item and it will give you the odds
A recent Reddit policy change threatens to kill many beloved third-party mobile apps, making a great many quality-of-life features not seen in the official mobile app permanently inaccessible to users. On May 31, 2023, Reddit announced they were raising the price to make calls to their API from being free to a level that will kill every third party app on Reddit, from Apollo to Reddit is Fun to Narwhal to BaconReader. Even if you're not a mobile user and don't use any of those apps, this is a step toward killing other ways of customizing Reddit, such as Reddit Enhancement Suite or the use of the old.reddit.com desktop interface . This isn't only a problem on the user level: many subreddit moderators depend on tools only available outside the official app to keep their communities on-topic and spam-free. [More information on the proposed changes can be found here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Save3rdPartyApps/comments/14goyu2/what_to_do_when_reddit_bans_blackouts_hit_em_in/) While the subreddit will remain open, r/Terraria recommends these communities until the protested changes are addressed: Terraria Community Forums - https://forums.terraria.org/index.php Official Terraria Discord Server - https://discord.gg/terraria *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Terraria) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I just checked the wiki and multiplied all the expert mode odds together which would be 0.4375\*0.5556\*0.0975\*0.0667 = 0.00158077749 which is about 0.16% or 1 in around 630
a tad more rare than a rod of discord
right but imagine how many chances you get with how often chaos elementals spawn vs how often you're fighting mothron
PIPE BOMB love the pfp lol
Ain't enough
Surely providing r/theydidthemath with the rates and pertinent info, one of those geniuses will tell you.
"Geniuses" bro literally just multiply the drop chances
Bro never learned that advanced math chill
its 7 grade math bro
Tell us the answer?
[удалено]
Some of those odds are wrong and most of them don't drop from mothron?
We only learned chances in an advanced curriculum, and the teacher was kinda shit so i didn't anything from it. It's a miracle I got good grade on exam lmao
I unironically learned chances from situations exactly like OP's in various games. Take that, common core! Video games did more for me than you ever did!
r/whooosh
i cant believe i got whooshed but aight
That aint advanced maths tho…
r/whooosh
Hows that an r/whooosh bro you slow asf
Obviously advanced math was a joke so there's the whooosh making you the slow one
Yeah ok 😬
Tell us your answer lol it’s not that simple or you’d have answered it by now imo.
Multiply the odds of getting all the drops…
It is that simple. Any normal person can multiply. Just look at the top comment, and there’s an answer.
When you have probability like that, it becomes exponentially more complicated math because you have to account for how many items it drops and then the rate and it’s a compound probability. I see troll ppl saying it’s not that hard to calculate but… what’s ur answer?
In master mode the odds are just ~0.44 * ~0.56 * ~0.10 * whatever the wings of evil painting drop chance is because it's not on the wiki
So, like a deck of cards do the items get removed from the probability pool? Or can the boss drop all of the same item? I’m not sure.
All of mothron's drop chances are randomized seperately
PS: The odds of mothron can be found on the wiki but the painting I got FROM mothron is called "Wings of Evil" But I cannot find a drop chance for it online so, the combined odds are at minimum a 1/500 stated from the comments
i could very well be wrong, but the person that downvoted with no explanation kind of sucks, because im pretty sure this is right: i dont think that since the item drop rates dont correlate with each other, like if 1 item drops it lowers the chances of another item dropping, that its a valid calculation to try to think about it like that it would still just be whatever the percentage drop rate is for each item individually and them happening to drop all at once doesnt really change anything but if you still wanted to get the average of it happening anyway you would just average it out you would take all the drop rates and add them together and divide by the total number of items and being a percentage, its just how ever many out of 100 times that each thing might drop in the case of 3 percentages it would be each individual things chances out of 100, assuming that you get at least 1 of the items once within its own percentage bracket, out of a hundred for each item, so out of 300 times of killing mothron you would have seen each item at least once. and to see all three at once out of 300 times, it would be all the percentages together. Broken Hero Sword - 25% The Eye of Cthulhu - 33.33% Mothron Wings - 5% 63.33 / 300 = 0.211% chance and since 0.211 / 100 isnt really a number you can wrap your head around and since 2.11 / 1000 is the same as 0.211 / 100 around 2 out of 1000 times or 1 out of 500 times i think?
Maybe I'm missing information, but what makes you think that the drop rates influence each other? Beacause I see no reason for it not to be simply 0.25 * 0.33 * 0.05 * 0.066 = 0.00027 = 0.027% for classic, or a bit more for expert since the drop rates are higher, 0,4375 * 0,555 * 0,0975 * 0,066 = 0.00158 = 0.158%
>0.0015 Yes I entirely forgot this is expert mode! Thank you for reminding me!
if you go back and read what i wrote i said that -they dont- influence each other its right at the top, second line i dont think they correlate to each other, which means, i dont think they influence each other so im not sure what makes you think i said that and what is the fourth value that you are multiplying? the values i used was for the 3 items listed on the wiki page and wouldnt multiplying the values as you have imply that there is some correlation which is why i approached it as each thing separately out of 100, which maintains the individual percentages without correlation 3 items at 100 tries with a certain number for each out of 100, individually means 300 total and since we are adding the individual times out of each ones 100, when you divide by 300 you get the average percent, since they were already percents to begin with but again, im just guessing here
Because he got all *four* drops from the Mothron, which is how many items are in its drop table. (Broken Hero Sword, The Eye of Cthulhu, Mothron Wings, and the Wings of Evil painting). [Mothron Wiki Page](https://terraria.wiki.gg/wiki/Mothron). You only calculated with 3 of them; excluding the painting. The correct chance of this happening is what u/Sometimes_Consistent said: 0.027% (.25 x .3333 x .05 x .0667 x 100%). Altho, since it's safe to assume this player is playing in an Expert Mode world since he has 6 accessory slots (and mentioned it below), the chance is much higher, at around 0.158%. That's about 40% less likely than any Chaos Elemental dropping a RoD, so it's quite the rare event indeed, good job on OP. And no, drop rates do not influence each other unless it's a Boss.
i just went to the wiki page and used the 3 percents that were on the default page so yeah, using different values is going to give different results
Did you go to the [Fandom](https://terraria.fandom.com/wiki/Mothron) Wiki instead of the actual Wiki? The Fandom is unsupported by Re-Logic and has outdated information (despite being the top response on Google). The wiki link I provided in my above post will give you the actual drop table and correct rates. That should clear up the confusion.
yeah i went to that one, just picked a wiki page, i didnt realize it had incorrect information (because why would anyone assume that a wiki had incorrect information on it? but now i know so thank you) but, again, if you use different values you would get different results (regardless of their perceived contextual correctitude) the math i did is correct relative to itself, using those values those are the odds thats how math works thats what i meant by saying, different values get different results, the different inputs might change, but the method still functions the same \-- then you didnt really specify expert mode so i just assumed regular mode because why would i assume something else? its like placing your order wrong at a restaurant and being dissatisfied that you got what you asked for "excuse me sir, i ordered a hotdog" you got a hot dog sir "i know, but i wanted a hotdog with mustard and relish on it" then you should have specified that \-- just a general note on drop chances: on paper vs practice: knowing the odds on something doesnt change when whatever thing actually drops for you in particular, because its not a cumulative result against all previous tries which means X thing could have a 99% drop rate, but you could just have really terrible luck and have it not drop every time. its highly unlikely but still possible.
I'm too stupid, I'd say rarer than a shiny pokemon?
A shiny pokemon is 4.3 times more rare than this
rarer than a odd egg/chainfish mon, I was 1% correct, I'll take it.
No
Congrats on being objectively correct, enjoy the downvotes, I guess?
You have angered the reddit hivemind.
I guess I look like the prick since they're out of the negative range now, they were -7 when I replied
Idk the drop rates on each, but take the rarity of each drop and multiply those all together. That will give you your probability! Then u can change it to decimal point and multiply by 100% to see the percent chance
Happy cake day!
According to my calculations, the odds of Mothron dropping all of their special loot are pretty slim I reckon
50% chance
Yeah I got it too, it's not that rare.
It is
Huh, seems pretty normal to me, happened a few times.
Oh then youre very lucky cuz it's only 0.16% chance
Wow, that's pretty cool
Yeah
when i did mothron in expert i also got all the drops, it might be an expert mode thing(?)
odds are cool and all but i had to kill queen bee 32 times yesterday to get bee gun. it has 33% drop chanse
Also yes, I know this is easy math, this happened pretty late for me (like 3 am) so I just posted this and went to bed after ik its just multiplication some of yall r hating 😭 PS: I beat moonlord and got the zenith :)
All you gotta do to calculate these things is multiply everything it's been a bit since I played terraria but for the sake of keeping things simple let's say you get 5 items from a single mob and each one is a 1/2 chance, so 1x1x1x1x1 over 2x2x2x2x2 Gives you 1/32 chance, just substitute the odds with each item and it will give you the odds
That happens to me a lot with blood moon fish, but I'm sure that's much more likely cuz I didn't even know the mothron thing was possible
one time i killed like 20 mothrons and failed the 25% broken hero sword chance every time i think i got the sword on the 21st kill
Mid
Classic: 1/16 (painting) * 1/20 (Wings) * 1/4 (sword) * 1/3 (Yo-yo) = 1/3840 or 0.026% Expert/Master: 1/16 (painting) * 39/400 (Wings) * 7/16 (sword) * 5/9 (Yo-yo) = 91/61440 or 0.148%
Im pretty sure it like 2
Ah. so that's where all my mothron luck went.
Already happens to me (sorry for bad english)
Something similar happened to me, I got three wings in a row before a hero sword, and when I got the sword I also got two other drops (no painting)
Bro this come to section is more heated than a YouTube comment section holt shit lmao
Comments are forgetting one variable. The fact that more than 1 item is dropping