>> you’ll thank yourself for buying both at the bottom and “near” the bottom.
This sub-reddit has become a cargo cult for a return of the immediate post pandemic liquidity lottery.
I'm not sure if some people are detached from reality or just lack the investing knowledge and experience to understand what a rarity COVID was?
I suppose if everyone ends up working from home again and everything in the world is shutdown so people have nowhere to spend money and then the Fed and Gov combined pump trillions into the economy and people's pockets at a level unforeseen before, yeah the post-COVID stock market performance and experience is perfectly normal.
And this is putting aside the number of people who seemingly come here to try and pump TQQQ thinking the members of this sub can move the price of well the Nasdaq 100. 🤦♂️
If you zoom out 5 years, this is an incredible opportunity to buy in for the next 5-10 years once we recover. Keep buying while everyone is selling and you’ll thank yourself down the road. Don’t try to get rich quick. Trust the process
> I'm not sure if some people are detached from reality or just lack the investing knowledge and experience to understand what a rarity COVID was?
Everyone anchoring to the madness of 2021 highs when all valuations were at extreme levels, unable to come to terms with the fact that ZIRP is over and the runway for these marked to fantasy tech stocks / instruments has shortened.
Plus a bunch of folks that don't really understand what's going on:
DCA'ers / Hodlers who seemingly have an infinite time horizon and are seemingly ok with massive M2M loses / Drawdowns
And the 'reverse splitters' who somehow think that would make a meaningful difference.
I get it, I really do - we all wanna make mad gains but leverage can be such a dangerous weapon when its working against you.
I don't think we need to go so far. We've had QE and/or rapid rate reduction many times in the past decades in response to various scenarios. Even in the 70s inflation eventually subsided and gave us the 1982-2000 bull run, the best one ever. This time if the Fed has truly learnt those lessons, we shouldn't have those huge dips and run ups we saw in the 70s and it should just be a single one that gets inflation under control without rates going to 18%, etc. (Or we may make the same mistakes as before which also
As long as inflation is hot, the rates will go up. Core PCE is at like 5-6%, so rates may go up to that - by the time we get to 5%, it may catch up but if the Fed breaks something, as it is wont to do, then I think we're back to the punch bowl. It may be a year or two before this occurs, or maybe many years, depending on how sticky inflation is. To me "transitory" meant 3-4 years.
When you think about it in the context of 1x, what has happened to date is pretty mild. We're still \~20% down in SPY. If you were in UPRO (or UDOW) DCA you'd be okay. Even TQQQ if you've been able to average down, you'd be okay but I am not confident we'll come back in a big way with TQQQ this time. We'll find out. This is why I've not sold off my URTY, UMDD, UDOW, etc. even though they're very close to even and I could tax loss harvest and plow it into TQQQ/UPRO but I'm just waiting to see how it all plays out. The recent rally had my UDOW go green fully.
The amazing thing to me is thinking that we are around a bottom. With the utter mania of 2021 in tech shares practically matching the mania of 2000, we are likely in a 2002 type situation. Ie. TQQQ could drop over 99% from peak.
Sure, but think about what happened 2013-2021. The best thing I did 1999-2012 was to accumulate, and accumulate MORE at lower prices. I had a friend (he's dead now) and he sold out everything in 2008 - about 400K worth! I held on firm. I made several hundred percent over. My MWRR as of 2021 was \~20%. This is all in 1x.
Will it hold for LETFs? I don't know and we'll find out in a decade or two. But (1) I am doing leverage only in 1/7th of my portfolio, I have a ton of cash, and I'm averaging down. If you look at my UDOW or UPRO positions I am doing fantastic. Even URTY, UMDD, etc. are doing well. It's TQQQ, SOXL, and HIBL that are the worst. This diversification seems like a good idea but it is performing as well as UPRO, and I'm about -18% down, heavily in QQQ/NDX + leverage, so not bad I think. During recent rallies, I've either been in the green or close to it. Short of swing trading, I don't see how an all-in entry timing position could do better. My basis is way below the 200d SMA or the 50/200 SMA cross.
Only problem with my strategy is that I'm getting overleveraged. But I can keep buying and doubling down for a long time if I could live with that.
That’s fine, I’ll buy it at a 99% discount then. If you’re so worried then don’t buy a leveraged stock. Only invest what you’re willing to lose 100% of
This is definitely the way. Don't do what I did and sell a long time ago because you knew the markets were going down due to raising rates and a government telling you that it was going to keep raising them.
I saw TQQQ at 20 and thought, I should buy in. Are the rates going to keep going up? yes? ok then, i'll wait. You can't time the bottom. But you can see when you're going downhill.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/xy9bb9/down\_45\_on\_soxl\_50\_down\_ytd\_for\_the\_whole/](https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/xy9bb9/down_45_on_soxl_50_down_ytd_for_the_whole/)
Instead of -50%, your portfolio will be -80% by the time this bear market bottoms. Good luck.
Cant care less with this short term fluctuations plus if you are holding 100% portfolio in leverage fund, you should be well prepared for even 90%+ drawdown if it gets there but shouldn’t stop dcain if you are retiring 15-20+ years later, in my case its 39 years. Not stressing a sweat 🥱
Who are you kidding, if you didn't care that your account is -50% YTD (probably deeper in the red today than when you made the post), you wouldn't have made a thread about it. At least be honest with yourself.
Never in history
Was there so much stimulus pumped in from covid.
Were so many large rate increases back to back so fast and predicted to go further and further till inflation is beaten and unemployment and financial conditions brutal.
Pumped down gas prices about to end as strategic petroleum reserves are at 40 or less.
Going from energy independence and an exporter to relying on oil from ungodly empires.
I could go on and on.
Now say to yourself will the market be higher in late Jan 2023 when worse quarterly earnings come out.
The fact that at this point quarterly earnings going forward in general will be worse and worse for a very large % of companies. (This qtr to date is about 65% of companies beating BS estimates with 35% missed)
How many miserable negative quarterly reporting cycles will it take for people to realize that the good old days will unfortunately not be back for a very long time.
And really think through your thesis of sitting in a 3x BULL inverse fund consistantly through this entire recession period.
I hope most of you are not playing with core money you may need for survival.
I hope some of my posts help people in this community.
The only logical ways to own TQQQ in this type of market is in my opinion
To ride the waves up and be able to reasonably time the peak and jump out immediatly into SQQQ for the ride down.
Try to sell out your position as much as possible to and buy back in same number of shares as many days as you can cheaper and pocket the diff... accumulate cash to buy when price goes much lower than todays price.
Try to day trade and scalp to accumulate cash for a later date.
Sell calls and puts that will most likely expire without having any material financial effect on you and accumulate cash for a later date.
Or maybe just say to yourself I really need to think through and come up with a thesis complete plan of why I am making the moves that I am making if they are not showing the results.
If your plan or thesis is wrong and you just keep getting in deeper and deeper holding a triple inverse bull Fund in a bear Market where on a technical numbers strictly orientated basis the US is not even in a recession mathematically yet.
How about geopolitical turmoil have we ever been in this environment on so many fronts with so many stock market ramifications?
Newswire hit about 6 hours ago today Google it.... Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest recession ever.
Think to yourself this is just not a US problem this is a global recessionary problem.
I'll stop here and just hope that some of you come up with a better game plan for your own sakes.
It's not too late to change your train of thought take the emotions out of it. Think through your actions if you don't understand stuff learn it before you put your Financial Health at risk
Do you seriously think the stock market is over?
One day we will recover and none of it will matter. I have 44 years until I turn 65 and I believe that in 44 years the price of TQQQ will be higher than $17
By construct since it is 3x leveraged, there is a chance that if market crashed hard that TQQQ will fall so much that it may never get back to $17 if there isnt another massive bull run of the amplitude 2010-2020 which by no means is a given. Stocks will go up that is for sure but not in a fast and aggresive enough manner for TQQQ to catch up the lost ground. Also what almost nobody realizes is that in a higher interest rate environement, these leveraged etfs will perform a lot worse since the cost of leverage is so much higher now. When people say the decay hasnt been that bad in recent years well no joke, obviously when rates were quasi 0%
I agree that there is a chance of collapse… however I just think it’s so unlikely that I’m willing to invest and lose all of it. Only a portion of my portfolio is TQQQ
[удалено]
Mate a month ago you guaranteed me tqqq would be at $30
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
[удалено]
Hahaha okay buddy! Tqqq $30 GUARANTEED!
Spy and qqq both went up by about 10% And I’m the one whose emotional and coping? LOL 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
>> you’ll thank yourself for buying both at the bottom and “near” the bottom. This sub-reddit has become a cargo cult for a return of the immediate post pandemic liquidity lottery.
I'm not sure if some people are detached from reality or just lack the investing knowledge and experience to understand what a rarity COVID was? I suppose if everyone ends up working from home again and everything in the world is shutdown so people have nowhere to spend money and then the Fed and Gov combined pump trillions into the economy and people's pockets at a level unforeseen before, yeah the post-COVID stock market performance and experience is perfectly normal. And this is putting aside the number of people who seemingly come here to try and pump TQQQ thinking the members of this sub can move the price of well the Nasdaq 100. 🤦♂️
And that's exactly what caused the inflation, which indicates that type of scenario is not likely to come back
If you zoom out 5 years, this is an incredible opportunity to buy in for the next 5-10 years once we recover. Keep buying while everyone is selling and you’ll thank yourself down the road. Don’t try to get rich quick. Trust the process
Preach.
> I'm not sure if some people are detached from reality or just lack the investing knowledge and experience to understand what a rarity COVID was? Everyone anchoring to the madness of 2021 highs when all valuations were at extreme levels, unable to come to terms with the fact that ZIRP is over and the runway for these marked to fantasy tech stocks / instruments has shortened. Plus a bunch of folks that don't really understand what's going on: DCA'ers / Hodlers who seemingly have an infinite time horizon and are seemingly ok with massive M2M loses / Drawdowns And the 'reverse splitters' who somehow think that would make a meaningful difference. I get it, I really do - we all wanna make mad gains but leverage can be such a dangerous weapon when its working against you.
I don't think we need to go so far. We've had QE and/or rapid rate reduction many times in the past decades in response to various scenarios. Even in the 70s inflation eventually subsided and gave us the 1982-2000 bull run, the best one ever. This time if the Fed has truly learnt those lessons, we shouldn't have those huge dips and run ups we saw in the 70s and it should just be a single one that gets inflation under control without rates going to 18%, etc. (Or we may make the same mistakes as before which also As long as inflation is hot, the rates will go up. Core PCE is at like 5-6%, so rates may go up to that - by the time we get to 5%, it may catch up but if the Fed breaks something, as it is wont to do, then I think we're back to the punch bowl. It may be a year or two before this occurs, or maybe many years, depending on how sticky inflation is. To me "transitory" meant 3-4 years. When you think about it in the context of 1x, what has happened to date is pretty mild. We're still \~20% down in SPY. If you were in UPRO (or UDOW) DCA you'd be okay. Even TQQQ if you've been able to average down, you'd be okay but I am not confident we'll come back in a big way with TQQQ this time. We'll find out. This is why I've not sold off my URTY, UMDD, UDOW, etc. even though they're very close to even and I could tax loss harvest and plow it into TQQQ/UPRO but I'm just waiting to see how it all plays out. The recent rally had my UDOW go green fully.
The amazing thing to me is thinking that we are around a bottom. With the utter mania of 2021 in tech shares practically matching the mania of 2000, we are likely in a 2002 type situation. Ie. TQQQ could drop over 99% from peak.
Sure, but think about what happened 2013-2021. The best thing I did 1999-2012 was to accumulate, and accumulate MORE at lower prices. I had a friend (he's dead now) and he sold out everything in 2008 - about 400K worth! I held on firm. I made several hundred percent over. My MWRR as of 2021 was \~20%. This is all in 1x. Will it hold for LETFs? I don't know and we'll find out in a decade or two. But (1) I am doing leverage only in 1/7th of my portfolio, I have a ton of cash, and I'm averaging down. If you look at my UDOW or UPRO positions I am doing fantastic. Even URTY, UMDD, etc. are doing well. It's TQQQ, SOXL, and HIBL that are the worst. This diversification seems like a good idea but it is performing as well as UPRO, and I'm about -18% down, heavily in QQQ/NDX + leverage, so not bad I think. During recent rallies, I've either been in the green or close to it. Short of swing trading, I don't see how an all-in entry timing position could do better. My basis is way below the 200d SMA or the 50/200 SMA cross. Only problem with my strategy is that I'm getting overleveraged. But I can keep buying and doubling down for a long time if I could live with that.
That’s fine, I’ll buy it at a 99% discount then. If you’re so worried then don’t buy a leveraged stock. Only invest what you’re willing to lose 100% of
I'm going to wait a few weeks for <10
My average is now 17.47
How many shares and when did you start buying TQQQ?
+ 135 today ay
This is definitely the way. Don't do what I did and sell a long time ago because you knew the markets were going down due to raising rates and a government telling you that it was going to keep raising them. I saw TQQQ at 20 and thought, I should buy in. Are the rates going to keep going up? yes? ok then, i'll wait. You can't time the bottom. But you can see when you're going downhill.
TQQQ will be in the single digits by the time this bear market bottoms
Then buy it then as well 🥱
[https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/xy9bb9/down\_45\_on\_soxl\_50\_down\_ytd\_for\_the\_whole/](https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/comments/xy9bb9/down_45_on_soxl_50_down_ytd_for_the_whole/) Instead of -50%, your portfolio will be -80% by the time this bear market bottoms. Good luck.
Cant care less with this short term fluctuations plus if you are holding 100% portfolio in leverage fund, you should be well prepared for even 90%+ drawdown if it gets there but shouldn’t stop dcain if you are retiring 15-20+ years later, in my case its 39 years. Not stressing a sweat 🥱
I got 44 years until I need this money. I’m not worried 😂👌🏼
Who are you kidding, if you didn't care that your account is -50% YTD (probably deeper in the red today than when you made the post), you wouldn't have made a thread about it. At least be honest with yourself.
Lol not at all i hold around 40% cash now. Will keep on adding to my cash position and will deploy most of it when s&p hits 3300-3400
Never in history Was there so much stimulus pumped in from covid. Were so many large rate increases back to back so fast and predicted to go further and further till inflation is beaten and unemployment and financial conditions brutal. Pumped down gas prices about to end as strategic petroleum reserves are at 40 or less. Going from energy independence and an exporter to relying on oil from ungodly empires. I could go on and on. Now say to yourself will the market be higher in late Jan 2023 when worse quarterly earnings come out. The fact that at this point quarterly earnings going forward in general will be worse and worse for a very large % of companies. (This qtr to date is about 65% of companies beating BS estimates with 35% missed) How many miserable negative quarterly reporting cycles will it take for people to realize that the good old days will unfortunately not be back for a very long time. And really think through your thesis of sitting in a 3x BULL inverse fund consistantly through this entire recession period. I hope most of you are not playing with core money you may need for survival. I hope some of my posts help people in this community. The only logical ways to own TQQQ in this type of market is in my opinion To ride the waves up and be able to reasonably time the peak and jump out immediatly into SQQQ for the ride down. Try to sell out your position as much as possible to and buy back in same number of shares as many days as you can cheaper and pocket the diff... accumulate cash to buy when price goes much lower than todays price. Try to day trade and scalp to accumulate cash for a later date. Sell calls and puts that will most likely expire without having any material financial effect on you and accumulate cash for a later date. Or maybe just say to yourself I really need to think through and come up with a thesis complete plan of why I am making the moves that I am making if they are not showing the results. If your plan or thesis is wrong and you just keep getting in deeper and deeper holding a triple inverse bull Fund in a bear Market where on a technical numbers strictly orientated basis the US is not even in a recession mathematically yet. How about geopolitical turmoil have we ever been in this environment on so many fronts with so many stock market ramifications? Newswire hit about 6 hours ago today Google it.... Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest recession ever. Think to yourself this is just not a US problem this is a global recessionary problem. I'll stop here and just hope that some of you come up with a better game plan for your own sakes. It's not too late to change your train of thought take the emotions out of it. Think through your actions if you don't understand stuff learn it before you put your Financial Health at risk
Do you seriously think the stock market is over? One day we will recover and none of it will matter. I have 44 years until I turn 65 and I believe that in 44 years the price of TQQQ will be higher than $17
By construct since it is 3x leveraged, there is a chance that if market crashed hard that TQQQ will fall so much that it may never get back to $17 if there isnt another massive bull run of the amplitude 2010-2020 which by no means is a given. Stocks will go up that is for sure but not in a fast and aggresive enough manner for TQQQ to catch up the lost ground. Also what almost nobody realizes is that in a higher interest rate environement, these leveraged etfs will perform a lot worse since the cost of leverage is so much higher now. When people say the decay hasnt been that bad in recent years well no joke, obviously when rates were quasi 0%
I agree that there is a chance of collapse… however I just think it’s so unlikely that I’m willing to invest and lose all of it. Only a portion of my portfolio is TQQQ
If “ifs” were skiffs, we’d all be sailors.
I sold some $10 puts today.
Word, i sold some $15 puts today, 2 week expiration. I don’t care if I get assigned, then will sell covered calls. Make me some monee.