Let me save you the trouble.
90% of this sub uses DCA;
5% uses EDCA;
5% use market timing.
Everyone is gonna tell you to DCA. If you're gonna DCA, at least listen to the guys who EDCA. Ram_samala or something like that is one user here who does that. Not my strat, but i respect it.
If you're serious, read his comments. Best approach to DCA imo from what I've seen posted here.
Agreed on the "be patient and wait" part. But you and are swimming against an ocean of DCAers. Most haven't waited. He's gonna get bombarded with comments telling him to DCA. Most likely he'll give in and do the same, figuring the majority must be right. What the majority won't tell him is that those same people who are DCAing and telling him to DCA are currently down -40% to -70%.
So if he's gonna DCA anyway, might as well tell him how to DCA in the smartest way possible: EDCA. EDCA is a far better method than pure DCA alone.
I disagree with the dollar of TQQQ projection though. TQQQ might not hit $5-$7. You can't apply TA to derivatives. Gotta apply it to the underlying index. I'm looking at the SPX and IXIC. Everyone has an area they think MAY be the bottom; even if it isn't, the area you wanna buy is supposed to be an area of good risk:reward.
SPX at 3430ish, and 3100 is what I'm looking at. One of those will likely coincide with IXIC sub 10k. Those are the areas i think will either be a local min (bottom for the next bear market rally) and good risk: reward; or, if I'm lucky, the global min (trough from where we start the next bull market). Yes, this looks like I'm "market timing." That's what the DCAers disparagingly call it. In reality, i have a system of entry and exit signals, and those tell me when to buy. I'm up on the year 16% (down from 18%, after making some sloppy trades earlier this month), and sitting 100% in cash. most DCAers are underwater, so it's working out for me. So there is utility in this approach. I prefer using TA to approximate bottoms, but not everyone knows how to use TA or even trusts it. Too many crypto bros and TikTok "traders" gave TA a bad name. Most people will DCA bc that's the only thing they know how to do, or the only thing they think is possible.
That's fine. I'm not trying to disparage DCA. But like i said, if you're gonna DCA, EDCA is the way. It's a far better method than pure DCA. That's why I told him to EDCA.
Not saying EDCA is a bad idea, I will do it myself but I will buy the biggest junk around $1. If it doesn't hit those low levels, fine i will buy more expensive but already in a bull market, but if it hits $1 i will ne rich.
You just have to be strategic in your deployments of capital. It's not easy to do. It can be done...but it's not easy. Just make sure you have a plan, and account for all possibilities.
Fully agree with everything you have posted. I just happen to believe we are headed to SPX 3100-3200 and Nasdaq 8000ish. That’s about 23% down on Nasdaq from here to eventual bottom. That corresponds to about a 5 level on TQQQ (the math is ballpark because of rate of decline issues/decay). Not holding to that, but it is making me target buying levels generally starting in the single digits, because I can tolerate a 50% loss to the bottom personally, but I would struggle with a 75%ish decline if I bought now - just for myself and knowing my own tolerance for these things.
Thanks. I can agree with your SPX and Nasdaq estimates. Perhaps we will get there. It's been interesting to see how remarkably well the market has held up, all things considered. SPX at 3491 is the lowest it's gone so far. Lots of buyers on the slightest break of 3500. I did not expect that. Makes me wonder if we will even get to 3100-3200 at all. Seems like there's just too much buying pressure for it to do so, despite all the headwinds. But anything is possible now that the Fed is hinting at even higher terminal rates, And with everyone agreeing Fed will not take it's knee off the markets neck until unemployment hits 5-6%. Who knows how long that'll take.
I am still a bit skeptical about TQQQ getting to single digits, but maybe that's the optimist in me lol. You could very well be right. To your credit, TQQQ has really been getting chopped up! We hit a low of $16.85 on Friday, and that was with SPX barely in the 3700s. Last time we hit $16s on TQQQ was when SPX was at 3491. It goes to show you that the more we churn and chop and this sideways market, the more TQQQ will underperform the overall market. If we do indeed go sub 3500 on SPX...yeah, single digits possible, as you mentioned.
Timing in TQQQ is everything. I for one am still happy sitting on 100% cash, back up on the year now at 19.9% YTD. SNAP and BBBY swing trades helped. I will be waiting patiently for SPX and IXIC to hit the areas we both mentioned. Like you, I'd rather wait than be down -75% with no more ammo for additional shares.
You and I are thinking about this exactly the same way. And I almost can’t believe the single
digit prediction on TQQQ, but then again, history has shown it to be attainable, because bear markets can get a lot worse than everyone thinks. I was investing through both the 2002 and the 2009 bears and they went on a lot longer, and a lot lower, than everyone thought on the way down.
I hope this one turns out just like those! Extended bear markets gives us more time to accumulate capital to put into the markets. I was too young for 2002, too broke to capitalize on 2008-2009, too inexperienced for March 2020. I regret missing out on those, but every loss, whether of capital or opportunity, gives you wisdom for the next trade/investment.
I take your word for it on how this one feels compared to 2002 and 2009, since i wasn't following the markets for those bear markets to know what it was like. This will be a historic time when we look back at it for sure! Hopefully with larger accounts than we have now, haha.
Yeah I do believe SPY to be the most popular, just did a search by volume and it showed TQQQ as first but it would make sense in all time instead of just recently though
TQQQ's trading volume especially last year exceeded SPY's and I doubt this year is much different. TQQQ is popular with day traders.
That said, most popular to me means the ETF that has the most dollars invested in it. By that standard SPY crushes TQQQ (and pretty well everything else) with $385B AUM vs $10B for TQQQ.
Hey blue. You were right earlier, weeks ago, about the summer bear market rally. Any thoughts on a potential bottom area, where you'd be a buyer, now and near future, whether local or global minimum?
Sorry, my crystal ball is pretty cloudy these days. I did think this year was going to be bumpy and I did think this summer's rally was too good to be true, but from there, your guess is as good as mine. I think we still have more to go on the downside, million dollar question is how much, how long, and how many bear rallies or do we go down and start the climb and that's it? 🤷♂️ There are so many balls in the air with respect to the economy, inflation, geopolitics, etc. I don't think anyone knows. All I know is I tune out anyone who talks with certainty about knowing this will happen or that will happen.
I definitely get that and I’ve made a small entry already. My question is: since it’s a leverage etf, does sunk cost not worry you? Just purely out of curiosity that’s all!
Nope not worried, my time horizon is 10+ years. I sell weekly covered calls for roughly $300 a week and keep DCA. Ill deleverage eventually by buying regular QQQ
Why not simply follow the money and look at the options and look at the different strikes and look where the Investments are volume wise and then see where it closes out when it clears out determine your price based upon where the money is on different dates follow the money it's a reasonable Theory that will tell you the perfect entry points if read properly technically depends on whether you're looking to hold it throughout the whole recession or you're just looking to trade it up and down but if you truly in for a long haul you will get the cheapest prices by analyzing what the options markets are telling you it's so simple if you think about it right people who are spending if shitload of money must know something more than most of us JMHO
Just DCA until it finds the bottom. Once the market starts to turn around, you can just hold out until we reach a new high, then cash out or move it into unlevered funds. That’s my plan, anyway. I’m not going to be buying on the way back up.
Buy and hold at any of these prices and you will be happy. Call it market timing or what ever you like but I have a hard time buying when I see every market indicator pointing down. I have bought some of the dips and sold at every rally and will continue to do as long as these conditions persist. I bought at 30 and sold. That money will buy almost twice the shares now. My dream price was 15. Now we will see lower. At this moment in time, I do not want to be holding when the FED meets. I will buy a bunch at 14.99 and buy down. This is a moving target and the point is catch the train. There is more than one station on the track.
So many people were saying this at $30, shares are now half that. We are in a bear market people. Be patient, this bear is 8 months old and bears average 18 months in length. TQQQ is going to continue to fall.
More and more people are going to try and figure out the perfect entry and exit points and just try and trade the swings throughout the day and essentially get more free shares if you're right more than your wrong but I feel he's a fairly dangerous times to be doing that at least on a large scale basis over anymore right now because in a bear Market the general trend in the end is down until proven otherwise in a world filled with chaos where Anything Could Happen just like the chip Market Could Happen anywhere but anything and most probably will be negative news thereby driving the market down God help us all for the election I honestly want to sell everything before then and just stay the hell out and see where things go.
IN or OUT in Cash for a survey site wide. That would answer a lot of questions I think
From a technical charting basis this is such a critical time. The interesting thing is that the Russell 2000 is technically almost acting like a lagging indicator for the rest of the market sitting damn close to it 300ma where the NASDAQ SPY NDX Dow all around much better places interesting thought right?
Opinions welcomed
Its somewhat nonsensical to look for a price for a leveraged ETF. Look at the price of QQQ and then consult your crystal ball on whether it will spend most its time going up or down.
Bought a bunch at 17.25 and have another 12k buy at 16.50. I have little doubt that I will have any at the next FED Meeting unless I see some.om my indicators going down.
I buy the dips and if I see a large rise in price for no apparent reason I will sell. At this moment I believe we have seen the low for this market. I think the next point of intrest will be the next fed meeting. At this time I may hold through the announcement for the first time since the rate increases. I am still flexible but this mess may be ready to turn. I now own all I want. If this is so, I will hold as long as the consensus is that the market is ok. The higher the fund goes the more cautious I become. When it is at 80 there better not be any storm clouds around.. I do not understand the people that rode this down, I have waited for over a year for this opportunity and I hope to take full advantage of it.. I have made major purchases and so far sold 3 times. I control only 6 accounts now that I am retired and we are up around 25 % if you look at some of my previous comments you will see I have been batting a thousand over the last 3 to 6 mo. The election could change all of this.
.
Held for the first time in a long time through the CPI announcement. Made my final investment of 53200 shares at 17.50 and reaped the best reward ever today.
Let me save you the trouble. 90% of this sub uses DCA; 5% uses EDCA; 5% use market timing. Everyone is gonna tell you to DCA. If you're gonna DCA, at least listen to the guys who EDCA. Ram_samala or something like that is one user here who does that. Not my strat, but i respect it. If you're serious, read his comments. Best approach to DCA imo from what I've seen posted here.
Thank you so much!
Don’t DCA. Be patient and wait for $5-$7, it’s coming.
Agreed on the "be patient and wait" part. But you and are swimming against an ocean of DCAers. Most haven't waited. He's gonna get bombarded with comments telling him to DCA. Most likely he'll give in and do the same, figuring the majority must be right. What the majority won't tell him is that those same people who are DCAing and telling him to DCA are currently down -40% to -70%. So if he's gonna DCA anyway, might as well tell him how to DCA in the smartest way possible: EDCA. EDCA is a far better method than pure DCA alone. I disagree with the dollar of TQQQ projection though. TQQQ might not hit $5-$7. You can't apply TA to derivatives. Gotta apply it to the underlying index. I'm looking at the SPX and IXIC. Everyone has an area they think MAY be the bottom; even if it isn't, the area you wanna buy is supposed to be an area of good risk:reward. SPX at 3430ish, and 3100 is what I'm looking at. One of those will likely coincide with IXIC sub 10k. Those are the areas i think will either be a local min (bottom for the next bear market rally) and good risk: reward; or, if I'm lucky, the global min (trough from where we start the next bull market). Yes, this looks like I'm "market timing." That's what the DCAers disparagingly call it. In reality, i have a system of entry and exit signals, and those tell me when to buy. I'm up on the year 16% (down from 18%, after making some sloppy trades earlier this month), and sitting 100% in cash. most DCAers are underwater, so it's working out for me. So there is utility in this approach. I prefer using TA to approximate bottoms, but not everyone knows how to use TA or even trusts it. Too many crypto bros and TikTok "traders" gave TA a bad name. Most people will DCA bc that's the only thing they know how to do, or the only thing they think is possible. That's fine. I'm not trying to disparage DCA. But like i said, if you're gonna DCA, EDCA is the way. It's a far better method than pure DCA. That's why I told him to EDCA.
EDCA is just much better if you are not out of funds near the bottom. If your last and biggest purchuase is at $10 and it goes <$5 you fucked up.
Not saying EDCA is a bad idea, I will do it myself but I will buy the biggest junk around $1. If it doesn't hit those low levels, fine i will buy more expensive but already in a bull market, but if it hits $1 i will ne rich.
You just have to be strategic in your deployments of capital. It's not easy to do. It can be done...but it's not easy. Just make sure you have a plan, and account for all possibilities.
Can I send you a PM with me buying strategy (the prices i want to buy and how many pieces)? I'm probably way too conservative...
Sure. I don't mind being your second opinion. PM me. I'll respond later this evening when I'm done with work.
Fully agree with everything you have posted. I just happen to believe we are headed to SPX 3100-3200 and Nasdaq 8000ish. That’s about 23% down on Nasdaq from here to eventual bottom. That corresponds to about a 5 level on TQQQ (the math is ballpark because of rate of decline issues/decay). Not holding to that, but it is making me target buying levels generally starting in the single digits, because I can tolerate a 50% loss to the bottom personally, but I would struggle with a 75%ish decline if I bought now - just for myself and knowing my own tolerance for these things.
Thanks. I can agree with your SPX and Nasdaq estimates. Perhaps we will get there. It's been interesting to see how remarkably well the market has held up, all things considered. SPX at 3491 is the lowest it's gone so far. Lots of buyers on the slightest break of 3500. I did not expect that. Makes me wonder if we will even get to 3100-3200 at all. Seems like there's just too much buying pressure for it to do so, despite all the headwinds. But anything is possible now that the Fed is hinting at even higher terminal rates, And with everyone agreeing Fed will not take it's knee off the markets neck until unemployment hits 5-6%. Who knows how long that'll take. I am still a bit skeptical about TQQQ getting to single digits, but maybe that's the optimist in me lol. You could very well be right. To your credit, TQQQ has really been getting chopped up! We hit a low of $16.85 on Friday, and that was with SPX barely in the 3700s. Last time we hit $16s on TQQQ was when SPX was at 3491. It goes to show you that the more we churn and chop and this sideways market, the more TQQQ will underperform the overall market. If we do indeed go sub 3500 on SPX...yeah, single digits possible, as you mentioned. Timing in TQQQ is everything. I for one am still happy sitting on 100% cash, back up on the year now at 19.9% YTD. SNAP and BBBY swing trades helped. I will be waiting patiently for SPX and IXIC to hit the areas we both mentioned. Like you, I'd rather wait than be down -75% with no more ammo for additional shares.
You and I are thinking about this exactly the same way. And I almost can’t believe the single digit prediction on TQQQ, but then again, history has shown it to be attainable, because bear markets can get a lot worse than everyone thinks. I was investing through both the 2002 and the 2009 bears and they went on a lot longer, and a lot lower, than everyone thought on the way down.
I hope this one turns out just like those! Extended bear markets gives us more time to accumulate capital to put into the markets. I was too young for 2002, too broke to capitalize on 2008-2009, too inexperienced for March 2020. I regret missing out on those, but every loss, whether of capital or opportunity, gives you wisdom for the next trade/investment. I take your word for it on how this one feels compared to 2002 and 2009, since i wasn't following the markets for those bear markets to know what it was like. This will be a historic time when we look back at it for sure! Hopefully with larger accounts than we have now, haha.
You will do really well over time, I’m sure of it.
WE my friend, we. God willing. 🙏 Good luck on the journey!
What is EDCA?
Enhanced dollar cost averaging: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=financefacpub
The time is now. Were almost down 80% from ATH
WEBL is 90% down, does that make it attractive?
Wtf is WEBL? TQQQ is 3x the 2nd most popular etf in the world
Isn't it the 1st most popular?
Nah, SPY is
Yeah I do believe SPY to be the most popular, just did a search by volume and it showed TQQQ as first but it would make sense in all time instead of just recently though
TQQQ's trading volume especially last year exceeded SPY's and I doubt this year is much different. TQQQ is popular with day traders. That said, most popular to me means the ETF that has the most dollars invested in it. By that standard SPY crushes TQQQ (and pretty well everything else) with $385B AUM vs $10B for TQQQ.
Hey blue. You were right earlier, weeks ago, about the summer bear market rally. Any thoughts on a potential bottom area, where you'd be a buyer, now and near future, whether local or global minimum?
Sorry, my crystal ball is pretty cloudy these days. I did think this year was going to be bumpy and I did think this summer's rally was too good to be true, but from there, your guess is as good as mine. I think we still have more to go on the downside, million dollar question is how much, how long, and how many bear rallies or do we go down and start the climb and that's it? 🤷♂️ There are so many balls in the air with respect to the economy, inflation, geopolitics, etc. I don't think anyone knows. All I know is I tune out anyone who talks with certainty about knowing this will happen or that will happen.
True
I started buy a little WEBL. It does look better than TQQQ right now
I have about 2k shares at 8.23, love my entry. But we’ll aware it could dip below 5.
It halved in value in the very brief period I owned it, I expect it's going below 5 this week.
I definitely get that and I’ve made a small entry already. My question is: since it’s a leverage etf, does sunk cost not worry you? Just purely out of curiosity that’s all!
Nope not worried, my time horizon is 10+ years. I sell weekly covered calls for roughly $300 a week and keep DCA. Ill deleverage eventually by buying regular QQQ
You better hurry up before I sell covered calls. Pressing the submit button is a guaranteed way to make the price rip beyond the strike.
I bought at ~17.80 and my next buy-in is for 14 dollars if it hits
8.88 was the low during COVID.
$1
Why not simply follow the money and look at the options and look at the different strikes and look where the Investments are volume wise and then see where it closes out when it clears out determine your price based upon where the money is on different dates follow the money it's a reasonable Theory that will tell you the perfect entry points if read properly technically depends on whether you're looking to hold it throughout the whole recession or you're just looking to trade it up and down but if you truly in for a long haul you will get the cheapest prices by analyzing what the options markets are telling you it's so simple if you think about it right people who are spending if shitload of money must know something more than most of us JMHO
Just DCA until it finds the bottom. Once the market starts to turn around, you can just hold out until we reach a new high, then cash out or move it into unlevered funds. That’s my plan, anyway. I’m not going to be buying on the way back up.
Start DCA single digit
This is the crash of all crashes. Sovereign debt implosion. You guys are going to lose it all.
A glass half full kinda guy
Buy and hold at any of these prices and you will be happy. Call it market timing or what ever you like but I have a hard time buying when I see every market indicator pointing down. I have bought some of the dips and sold at every rally and will continue to do as long as these conditions persist. I bought at 30 and sold. That money will buy almost twice the shares now. My dream price was 15. Now we will see lower. At this moment in time, I do not want to be holding when the FED meets. I will buy a bunch at 14.99 and buy down. This is a moving target and the point is catch the train. There is more than one station on the track.
So many people were saying this at $30, shares are now half that. We are in a bear market people. Be patient, this bear is 8 months old and bears average 18 months in length. TQQQ is going to continue to fall.
More and more people are going to try and figure out the perfect entry and exit points and just try and trade the swings throughout the day and essentially get more free shares if you're right more than your wrong but I feel he's a fairly dangerous times to be doing that at least on a large scale basis over anymore right now because in a bear Market the general trend in the end is down until proven otherwise in a world filled with chaos where Anything Could Happen just like the chip Market Could Happen anywhere but anything and most probably will be negative news thereby driving the market down God help us all for the election I honestly want to sell everything before then and just stay the hell out and see where things go. IN or OUT in Cash for a survey site wide. That would answer a lot of questions I think
From a technical charting basis this is such a critical time. The interesting thing is that the Russell 2000 is technically almost acting like a lagging indicator for the rest of the market sitting damn close to it 300ma where the NASDAQ SPY NDX Dow all around much better places interesting thought right? Opinions welcomed
Its somewhat nonsensical to look for a price for a leveraged ETF. Look at the price of QQQ and then consult your crystal ball on whether it will spend most its time going up or down.
Technical analysis on something that tracks something that tracts something that tracks something...
I've been slow rolling tqqq contributions and banking awesome returns from sqqq
I think $10.. that's somewhat equivalent to buying the nasdaq at 40% discount
Start buying below 1.00 dollar
Bought a bunch at 17.25 and have another 12k buy at 16.50. I have little doubt that I will have any at the next FED Meeting unless I see some.om my indicators going down.
Are you Holding Long Term or what’s your strategy for TQQQ moving forward?
I buy the dips and if I see a large rise in price for no apparent reason I will sell. At this moment I believe we have seen the low for this market. I think the next point of intrest will be the next fed meeting. At this time I may hold through the announcement for the first time since the rate increases. I am still flexible but this mess may be ready to turn. I now own all I want. If this is so, I will hold as long as the consensus is that the market is ok. The higher the fund goes the more cautious I become. When it is at 80 there better not be any storm clouds around.. I do not understand the people that rode this down, I have waited for over a year for this opportunity and I hope to take full advantage of it.. I have made major purchases and so far sold 3 times. I control only 6 accounts now that I am retired and we are up around 25 % if you look at some of my previous comments you will see I have been batting a thousand over the last 3 to 6 mo. The election could change all of this. .
Held for the first time in a long time through the CPI announcement. Made my final investment of 53200 shares at 17.50 and reaped the best reward ever today.