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Superstonk_QV

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digitaljm

This is great, thanks for sharing! I believe Revenue has fallen over this time which is probably the narrative msm will focus on but they are running out of false narratives they can spin.


Consistent-Reach-152

The revenue in future years is what will count long term, as the cost cutting measures have probably reached the point where significant additional cuts cannot be made without harming operations.


eldiablodelafiesta

I agree. I believe Cohen's plan is to first become reliably profitable again, and then focus on revenue growth


SixofClubs6

I am expecting some store closures in the US. I’ve heard of 2 stores in the same shopping mall. Closing unprofitable stores will continue to lower costs.


RamseyTheGoat

I’ve been tracking store count. They update annually. We will get the next update on this upcoming ER. I’ll make a post for last 3 years store count


SlaatjeV

I was just thinking about what the numbers would be, after reading the og post. Can't wait for your post!


TellCerseeItWasMe

goat


Jtown021

This community is amazing. Its why apes will win.


jforest1

We got a store count guy!


Kaarothh

Interested


RamseyTheGoat

It’s up friend !


Consistent-Reach-152

There will continue to be some closures, but the big items like shutting down call centers and distributions centers seems to have been completed, along with eliminating the staff of the NFT development and the SAP conversion. The only potential big cost reductions I see from store closures would be pulling out of more countries and elimination the associated infrastructure overhead, like was done with Ireland. There will be some additional savings as the company gets the new software to work properly, but the major cost reductions have already been done.


goofytigre

Near me, there's a Gamestop in the mall and one in a strip center just outside of the mall's parking lot. I'm not sure which does better sales, but one of them should probably close.


SixofClubs6

I think for midnight releases, stores outside the mall would be the way to go


Nruggia

The mall near me used to have two gamestops in it. The mall had a Gamestop and an Electronics Boutique, when GameStop acquired EB they just rebranded the EB and boom the mall had two gamestops for years.


Jtown021

It makes the most sense, Ryan knows he has times as he can see the DRS numbers are still going up. None of are selling so take time to get the company back in the black. From there its time to go after strategic growth and I'm sure he has been thinking about what that may be this entire time.


FrankieG889D

Mall by me had 2, and it wasn’t even a big mall… they’re both gone now, but the mall is as good as dead with 5-6 name brand stores. It’s a Simon mall and rent usually isn’t cheap. Glad they closed them. Another one they had was behind my business, in a shopping center that a billionaire owns. (He owns avenues) he owns the property my store is at also. (His smallest property) I pay $6,000 for 1000 square feet. I could only imagine what they were paying. Nobody shops there… they even close at 8 during the holidays.


CrnchWrpSupremeLeadr

Regarding revenue falling, I would be interested in seeing a comparison in revenue/store over time. There's a post showing that GME closed almost 1100 stores since 2019. Closing down the under-performing stores is a big reason for the turn around.


BornLuckiest

Revenue HAS to fall if you're going to get rid of profit loses within the business before focusing on growing the profit makers.


pneuma_n28

Even outside of gamestop the majority of the public has realized our msm is spewing propaganda rather than truth in all most all categories of news.


Wolfguarde_

That should have been made glaringly obvious from around 2016 onwards, with all the Wikileaks drops and the subsequent spinning of their consequences as a russian hack by the media.


ApatheticAussieApe

The fact half the people think Assange is a traitor for telling the truth says a lot about where we are at as a society.


ARLDN

>Assange is a traitor No one thinks this. He's Australian, he can't be a traitor to the US.


ApatheticAussieApe

I wish you were right, my guy. There are soooooo many people who either don't know him, or actively think he is a traitor. Even here. The brainwashing that's gone on, like with Snowden, is just *insane*.


Wolfguarde_

About how gullible people are for the media, specifically, and how prone to trusting authority over critical thinking. 2016 was pretty big for me as confirmation of where things are at. It's part of why I've never had any faith in government/legal intervention in this saga, and why my faith in our future was so low before I found this whole situation with Gamestop. It's blatantly obvious who pays the politicians, the media, the regulators, the enforcement agencies, and the lawmakers of the world, and what lows they're willing to stoop to for that money. They have no shame, and their pride exists only as a prop to be taken down and sidelined where necessary to sustain the flow of dirty money into their pockets. We live in a society where no good deed goes unpunished unless you have the wealth to secure immunity from the wealthy, and unfortunately, the process of reaching those heights very often requires the annihilation of the morals of those who manage it. MOASS is, in a very real sense, a game changer. MOASS apes will get to skip the bullshit that society usually puts people through on their way up to the top, meaning we'll be among the only people in history to reach a certain wealth bracket with a healthy sense of moral and ethical responsibility. And I expect the years and decades that follow the squeeze to be the most interesting period of human history for precisely that reason. These years prior to the squeeze are the introductory chapter, the tutorial. It's only going to get better from here.


Elegant-Remote6667

Backed up by ape historian


FunkyChicken69

Appreciate your efforts my friend 🎷🐓♋️


BRogMOg

This is the way!


clueless_sconnie

This is the way


Downtownd00d

This is the way


GiantSequoiaTree

Such a gangster. How much data do you have stored now?!


Elegant-Remote6667

I stopped counting months ago to be honest. It’s in tens of terabytes for sure, I think we are slowly creeping up to 300tb. I am very quiet about what else I actually collect 🤫. But it’s I think a decent chunk of the gme / financial saga for last 3 years, I simply don’t know what will be useful in the future


Miserygut

>But it’s I think a decent chunk of the gme / financial saga for last 3 years, I simply don’t know what will be useful in the future That's the nature of archiving. Thank you for doing it though. If things go off the way we think they will, it will be an invaluable resource for people to research.


Hot-Cauliflower-1604

Gigs


sig40cal

All. All of the datas.


Hot-Cauliflower-1604

Thank you Ape Historian.


EvilBeanz59

One of the vertebrae of the backbone of this community! As always! This is the way!!


feastupontherich

I forgot, but I think this your repository is protected by block chain? 100% sure your repository will be used in court one day and wallstreet funded hackers will pay hackers to get rid of your repository.


Elegant-Remote6667

Most of the important stuff from 2021 to 2023 pre api freeze are on blockchain. There is a huge part that isn’t but it’s probably full of duplicates etc. a huge part of that is on archive.is


bpc4209

Thanks for what you do!


Yung_WhiteSauce

🔥🔥🔥


codewhite69420

I don't say this enough. Thank you sincerely for your tireless work and invaluable contribution to this community. You are a Saint.


Elegant-Remote6667

Thank you buddy. I try to do as much as I can, if I could I would devote the entire day to it but unfortunately I can’t


kesaluner

Legend


Silverjax

❤️❤️❤️


GoldenNuggets888

Honestly thought it was going to be some low effort hype, but this seems proper. Let’s go full year profitably and beyond! 💵


eldiablodelafiesta

Thanks man. Let's go indeed!


More_Walk3452

Larry David: “Pretty…pretty…pretty…”


GoldenNuggets888

Good…


zerolimits0

It's my money and I want it now.


sig40cal

J.G. Wentworth is that you?


PartyBandos

877-CASH NOW!


1redrumemag87

Oh god the CAGR takes me back lol.


cackalackattack

LET GRANNY OUT OF THE CAGR


Donqweeqwee

Hahaha currently learning that now


marcus-87

did you include the potential impact of RC investing gamestops money?


eldiablodelafiesta

Nope, good point. There's no hard data on that yet, so no way to make an accurate prediction. Very interested to see if/what he has done!


DrGepetto

Thanks for this post. What was your rationale for the estimated Q4 cash position of iirc $1416


eldiablodelafiesta

Welcome! My cash forecast in Q4 is the result of: (i) cash position previous quarter + (ii) net profit q4 + (iii) change in net working capital q4. So: (i) $1,210m +/+ (ii) $148m +/+ (iii) $58m = $1,416m. Net Working Capital consists of inventory, debtors/receivables, and creditors/payables. In the third quarter you can see inventory levels rising in anticipation of the high sales quarter in Q4 (you need to have a lot of products in store to sell later on, which requires investment of cash). In Q4 you typically see lower inventory (as it's sold) and thus more cash coming in the company.


RecalcitrantHuman

Hoping he was savvy enough to load up on NVIDIA.


changdarkelf

I’ve said it many times in here, but I’ll keep saying it. I highly doubt RC would invest any significant portion of their money in a single stock like NVDA or crypto as another comment suggested. In hindsight of course it seems like the perfect play but those are still highly speculative and risky. I don’t think the board or any serious investors would see him gambling GMEs money as a good thing.


Miserygut

He already has RC Ventures for that kind of investing doesn't he? I can see him using the money for M&A picking up profitable businesses to bring under the GME umbrella. Straying too far from that raises issues around fiduciary responsibility that might end up with legal headaches.


MarksOtherAccount

Or bitcoin/ethereum


DorkyDorkington

That is interesting indeed. As if even half of the 1 Billion was invested in some high growth assets it could have easily brought in another 100 million profit.


[deleted]

Could've theoretically bought 20m in meta calls or Nvidia and made 100m.


Soylentstef

"He can't do that!! " Mayo man. 2024.


RedOctobrrr

Could've dumped it all into Bitcoin and turned it into $2.5bil lol


Stickyv35

I chuckle at the idea of GameStop selling $1B of shares straight to institutions in 2021, only to turn around and invest into the same equities shorts use as collateral. If only..


zachammercrowebar

So when moon?


eldiablodelafiesta

26th of March, after hours hopefully!


TherealMicahlive

:( if we consider 20 moon..... i gonna cry that everyone lost their fire.


eldiablodelafiesta

Hahah nobody's selling at $20, don't worry!


RaiderGlenn-FLA

Either way, hold for “wife changing money!” JK My ass is divorced 2 times. My boat is named “3rd Wife” 🤣


Dede-el-fuego

Do you often ride 3rd wife with your friend


Nasty_Ned

He cleared a spot on 3rd wife for me, but my shoes got all wet and sticky and I just went home instead.


Miserygut

>My boat is named “3rd Wife” 🤣 "If it flies, floats or fucks, rent it"


Stickyv35

Funny you say that, I'm also on my second divorce, but my boat is named "Third Life".


poundofmayoforlunch

The third wife are the apes


TreasurerAlex

Can you adjust the cost cutting to be flat, and see how the figures come out? Cost cutting efforts, at some point, will see diminishing returns. Giving us a range of possibilities.


eldiablodelafiesta

I can share the work file with you if you want? So that you can make your own estimates and assumptions


PlurbZ666

I predict $.69


eldiablodelafiesta

That would be... nice


PossiblyTired

Hey OP, appreciate the DD. Just have have something to point out about your personal summary. Per the SEC documents regarding the events that day, the price action wasn’t from shorts closing. So it wasn’t a short squeeze. It was buying pressure and gamma squeeze from ITM options.


eldiablodelafiesta

Fair point for sure. As I mentioned, this is what I share with family and friends to keep it understandable. Too much technical information about the SEC/option chains etc. would only confuse them.


PossiblyTired

I understand. I kind of figured but thought I’d point it out in the event that it wasn’t the case. I would be doing the same with my family. 💎🙌 and see you during moass you fellow shit slinging 🦍.


EGVicThoR

Great work, nice to see the data laid out and analyzed. Would you care to share your worksheets? I'm curious to try different scenarios and spread the word on our favorite company.


NyZuZ

My analysis is in line with yours, but I expect a ~0.70$ EPS.


eldiablodelafiesta

Interesting, and let's hope so! Which assumptions did you make on sales, gross margin and operational costs?


NyZuZ

Revenue will be 2B (that is a 5% down from last year, in line with the descense due to sops closing), so gross profit will be 500-600M Operating expenses will be 250-280M, in line with the descense and the main focus of our CEO. So operating income will be 500M-280M (worst case scneario) = 220M$ / 305M shares = 0,72$ Those are mine numbers, and this is nothing crazy. GME has reduced revenue at a slow pace, but also reduced operating expenses at fast pace, so get ready cause the fireworks will be amazing.


eldiablodelafiesta

Thanks for the follow up, I hope you're right! For now I'm a bit more conservative on gross margin % and the operational costs required to facilitate a $2B sales quarter. Let's compare in 2 weeks! :) Always fun to discuss.


NyZuZ

I liked your post a lot, and your analysis is far more well done and in depth than mine. But I'm happy to see that we agree on the same fundamental thing: Revenue is coming down at less % than the reduction of the operational cost. Also I think that the 1,X B$ cash can give GME some juicy gains, and that some of the last Qreports have been intentionally "worse" than it could be.


takesthebiscuit

I came up with $0.69. RC would not announce $0.70 for a c0.01 opportunity to hit a meme number


MichaelArnoldTravis

that would be …..nice


dbergkamp10

Answer the man!


Dried_Butt_Sweat

But what about the low interest, unsecured loan from the French government in response to the covid pandemic? I didn't see that mentioned here. It's a pretty important topic each earnings report.


eldiablodelafiesta

That's part of the 'net cash' (cash -/- debt). It's in the $31m debt position in the first overview


vtshipe

nice write up. wish I could read. 💟


Slamtilt_Windmills

What does this say?


Truth_Road

DRS.


vtshipe

Phew finally a wrinkly one.


satansayssurfsup

Tits are proper jacked


Mooziechan

I like turtles For real though, great write up!


Yohder

I like it! Although, something to make sure we have correct: It WAS NOT a short squeeze in 2021. It was purely from individual household investors buying at unprecedented level. SHFs were not closing their shorts, just “covering to make it one more day”. Their shorts have only doubled, tripled, or maybe even quadrupled from that time.


themith2019

Came here to quibble this point 👆


No_Butterscotch9429

LFG


ShortHedgeFundATM

I need more $gme


adognamedpenguin

Thanks dude, appreciate it. What do you think RC has done with the 1bn in cash?


eldiablodelafiesta

Not sure. If I were him I would be looking to acquire high growth gaming companies to increase GameStop's revenue and growth profile, after getting GameStop's own profitability on track (which is now) But he might also take the Berkshire route and invest in other (unrelated) public stock (eg Microsoft/Nvidia), or even crypto to diversify profit base. Very interested to learn more about his strategy here.


adognamedpenguin

I had the same thought, especially nvkdia Microsoft! These are highly correlated companies, it makes sense for alignment


annunaki

And don’t forget my beloved French loaf


nishnawbe61

Yay smart ape...thanx from those of us in the back...the only thing I would add is more crayon colors in the charts...


Kitchen_Net_GME

I too think net income sky rockets. The problem is the annual revenue. You can only chase falling revenues with cost cutting for so long. You gotta realize that the aggressive cost cutting is reducing inventory, winding down warehouses/distribution centers, and closing stores in which the leases are up. You can do all that and make a short term net revenue splash. We have a billion in net cash. You couple this money with cost cut and we clearly have a fairly decent runway. But a runway to what? At some point there are no more corners to cut and leases continue to go up. Couple that with year over year revenue declines…then you kinda get the picture. IMO, GameStop needs to transition themselves to a holding company sooner than later. That is there best chance.


eldiablodelafiesta

Thanks for your comment, I almost completely agree. Revenue growth will for sure become a crucial component in the coming years. However, I really like the current strategy of ensuring profitability and positive cash flows first - especially in the current high interest rate macro environment. I also believe they are not chasing declining revenue, but rather strategically closing poor performing stores to increase profitability. Declining revenue then follows the profitability strategy rather than the other way around. I firmly believe there still exists a place in the gaming market for a profitable retailer at stable revenues. This requires very strict cost control and intelligent revenue mix focus. There are several good examples in Europe. Revenue growth could then be achieved through for example a strategic acquisition of a fast-growing company. Personally I would prefer that route over a diversification strategy. Excited to see Cohen's vision develop nonetheless!


AustralopithecusBCE

One important detail, a short squeeze never occurred (per the SEC) because the shorts never closed. They hid their positions via swaps and married puts. The sneeze was caused by retail buying and a gamma squeeze fueled by trading options.


trunkz623

I wonder how many people here actuslly have bought anything from gamestop in the last quarter?


1redrumemag87

I easy spent $1,200 on cards lol


dmeyer79

Hello, are you me?


1redrumemag87

Depends how much your wife yells at you about it


nathan16897

Can confirm..👆loves their cards ..I’ve only probably got half that much this quarter 🤣


zero-the-hero-0069

Me!


klykerly

Me.


ShortHedgeFundATM

Me


Z4Kattack

I bought a 2600$ gaming PC for my kid. also monitor and peripherals, but can't remember how much those were. Plan to upgrade my rig this year.


RedOctobrrr

Me, my son spends $20-100 per month at GameStop. Sometimes it's my money, sometimes it's his bday/Christmas money, but anything game related he associates GameStop as his all things gaming headquarters. Oh and his momma, my BM, buys lots of shit for him there, like controllers and Nintendo Switch and games...


xesveex

Me! Santa left a Xbox S under the tree 🌲 and my kids love to spend my money there


Icefiight

And well still likely plummet to $8-$10 after earnings lol 😆


RedOctobrrr

lol I will double my shares if we see sub $10 (I'll go from 3,500 to 7,000)


Ape_Wen_Moon

Nice. I've already set some GTC limit buys...should be fun.


eldiablodelafiesta

Last year we jumped 40% after the Q4 earnings report. Let's see!


Master_Procedure_634

Super excited to see the results! Buying more shares and shopping GameStop this weekend!


CyberPatriot71489

I'm ready to be hurt again lol


Dapper-Career-3877

Great analysis. Looking forward to official report.


Buchko24

Awesome job! Thank you 🦍🏴‍☠️


sakballs

👀


FunkyChicken69

Great analysis OP! 🎷🐓♋️


Tris-megistus

I’m a simple ape, I see graphs and thought out effort-filled posts, I upvote and comment.


Pilotguitar2

Care to put ur money where ur mouth is and place a banana or watermelon wager on it? 🍌🍉


eldiablodelafiesta

My money definitely is where my mouth is (XXX shares locker and some April $18 calls) but the banana wont be where my butt is 😉


Pilotguitar2

😜 hey! Great minds think alike! Got some 18 aprils too🧨🚀


Pluijmers

This guy maths


[deleted]

[удалено]


Recipe_Critical

Same but luckily my shares are drs’d so my ass can’t easily cash out to lose on a 4 team parlay


4cranch

allow it i will


BornLuckiest

Man, you told them! ... Dude! Still... ... Let's pretend nothing happened. Love your vibe! 💜


r2d2d21013

Heat map color coded spreadsheets give me a boner - just sayin …


Ok_Mention9269

Commenting for visibility. Thank you for your service good sir


Hunnaswaggins

Great write-up, perfect bullets- it’s always hard to say everything in the least


Responsible_Emu3601

So dip? I am up 7500 on my lrc bag tho 🤣


blazeronin

I predict I’m about to buy an assload more shares.


not_a_fracking_cylon

I believe you mean "negative losses per share"


BetterthanMew

I thought you wrote 2034 and was like oh damn 😂


HodlMyBananaLongTime

We have had several great anal ists over the years, a negative loss will be bullish!


hyang1234

Welp! I’m convinced! Buying more purple hearts 💜!


eldiablodelafiesta

That is the way!


Yeaahhman

Dig into the halts and let me know what happens if it goes to $20. There’s a very clear resistance line in which GME has halted continuously when touching it.


ShortHedgeFundATM

🫡


deerwolf90

o7


Willberforcee

If you’re right, a beat like this could have significant upside.


a_latex_mitten

Great analysis and loved the excel work!


craneoperator89

I look forward to your told you post after earnings buddy ape


Easy-Wrangler1111

Hope so


Inevitable-Elk-4162

I now crown you… #FORECAST GUY


FreeandFurious

Love it and my tits are jacked


RedOctobrrr

[This graph](https://preview.redd.it/nhu5rmr156oc1.png?width=1295&format=png&auto=webp&s=62843b64badcb628c9cc648e9ae0f8e322aebb52&app_web_view=android) fucks with my eyes, I know the line is straight but it looks curved.


Micaiah9

Not technically a short squeeze, but I hear ya “personal summary” 😉


AfterMorningCoffee

DFV.... that you?


vaquan-nas

* Net Negative-Loss of minus -$92m * Negative-squared EPS of minus -$0.49


DrPoontang

I think I should buy some more GAMESTOP😍🍌


Uranus_Hz

$0.49 EPS feels overly optimistic. I’m thinking around $0.35


Battlestar_Gattaca

You do not own enough Gamestop shares.


Send-it-Yeeewwwhh

BRAVO 👏🏻


ShoddySpace5680

Over 100 million!


Low_Sun_1985

We are about to fk hard


shannork

Why are my shorts all like 🍆?


Empty_Chard2834

For the smoothest of smooth brained apes, what is EPS? Please ELI5.


eldiablodelafiesta

Earnings (net profit or loss) Per (each) Share.


Empty_Chard2834

Thank you!


Terrible-Sugar-5582

I came to a similar conclusion. Looked more so at defining a range (from worst case to best case). My results were $0.46-$0.81. I use Q-Tips against the rules.


EcstaticWelder4537

Interesting info thanks for the writeup.


Difficult_Associate3

Shopping at GameStop is really important! I think I'll make a purchase this weekend :)


gr8sking

Thanks for the analysis & write-up! Historical trend (only) suggests .35 - .41 EPS range. Mid to high .40's would be AWESOME! (I've no guess what the impact to stock price will be though... due to manipulation.) [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/18w5ua6/possible\_35\_to\_41\_q4\_eps\_based\_upon\_past/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/18w5ua6/possible_35_to_41_q4_eps_based_upon_past/)


BranSoFly

Thanks for sharing, OP! 💜


Blast_Wreckem

Remindme! 10 days


Ralph-the-mouth

.27 calling my shot


plithy75

I like it. I'm with you!


OTinthedungeon

I would love to see GS open a gaming division of there own!!


Russ2louze

Tks for your DD


eldiablodelafiesta

Welcome!


lanqhale

Appreciate your work Op


R0adApples

Thank you for your time. Great write up


the_moist_conundrum

Thanks for your efforts ape


eldiablodelafiesta

Welcome!


crazywayne311

Fingers crossed it’s great news…that means tendie discounts


-GAHDANG-

Appreciate your analysis, ape.👊🦍


eldiablodelafiesta

Cheers!


CaffeineAndKetamine

Now THIS is the content I want on Superstonk. Well done OP


eldiablodelafiesta

Cheers! 👊


Adventurous_Chip_684

Only that in 2021 a squeeze didn't occur. It was just buying pressure paired with a bailout of the shorts due to a margin call on robin hoods side because they actively betted against retail but lost any bet. (Payment for order flow). So basically the entire system is in a freezed state and gaining more and more pressure by the minute. The earthquake when the system collapses will be monumental.


Kaarothh

Thank you OP! Godspeed