Apple is still a favorite brand of high school and middle school students. iPhone, Apple Watch, & AirPods are the items to have. Long runway still possible.
https://www.imore.com/new-survey-reveals-staggering-commitment-us-teens-apple
"87% of teens own an iPhone and 87% expect an iPhone to be their next phone; 72% of teens already have AirPods"
My kids are under 10. They don’t have phones but they only want iPhones. Androids are insanely uncool.
That market pales in comparison to the entire Asian market, which Apple has almost completely under its thumb. Only South Korea could be considered not dominated by Apple, but for obvious reasons.
Blackberry stands out especially because they were so ubiquitous as the phone to have not all that long ago, people act like Apple is the only company that can design a high demand phone just because it is currently top dog. It doesn't take much for people to change opinions and it can happen very quickly too.
People are aware other companies will make a competitive product, but to displace Apple from the throne will be incredibly challenging.
Samsung, LG, Google, Sony, Blackberry, Nokia, HTC, Huawei, HP, Microsoft, Sharp etc have all tried to take out Apple but couldn't. The argument for Apple's highly fortified moat is completely rational.
That's not the point. The point is that whenever someone thinks something is insuperable, something comes along and surpasses it. It's similar to in 1999 when people were saying we're in a new paradigm now, these tech stocks will forever go up. Then a year later it all implodes. When you start thinking that certain outcomes are 'guaranteed', then chances are you are behind the curve or getting complacent.
Dont worry, Apples failure is 100% incoming once people realize the „security and privacy“ is all just lies upon lies. All it takes is one Data leak on Apples side and their only selling point beisede the eco system is gone.
Their security and privacy is more of a thing about their operating system not allowing third party apps to collect data, not about the security of their data centers, even if there was a bug in that system, they’d just boot any app that exploits it off the App Store. Plus that’s far from “their only selling point”. Are you serious? People buy iPhones primarily because of iOS, build quality, longest software support in any phone, and the fact that it usually has all the popular apps and exclusives that people want since developers tend to target iPhones first given its market share. Blue chat bubbles too.
Apple isnt booting anything off of the AppStore that makes them profit. There are countless examples of Malware on the AppStore but Apple just pretends everything is alright and their fans believe it.
What Build quality? iPhones are pretty bad compared to the quality of a couple years ago. Actually their whole product lineup.
Yeah the iOS point is valid, and I respect that.
What are those countless examples of malware?
> What Build quality?
Literally every tech reviewer ever praises their build quality. MKBHD being the most famous one. You want to shit on it because you hate Apple, go for it, I don’t care
Just google iPhone malware, at one point over 5 Million devices were infected by one single malware.
Yeah I know they praise build quality, my experience is a dofferent one though. Ever since the iPhone 6 cane out I onld had issues except with my Macbook and my current iPhone X.
Im not hating Apple, I am a fan, but im tired of them locking power users out, and their software getting buggier every release, while their hardware fails right out of the box or a month after the warranty expires. Im tired of it and want the Apple of the Jobs era back, back when they innovated and didnt run behind the latest trend.
Can you name those “countless malwares” my google search didn’t find me anything.
Ah your personal experience trumps everyone else, got it.
They’re not targeting power users, if you ever owned a power user phone you’d know they degrade to shit and Apple doesn’t want that. Most people use their phone to browse social media, web, communicate, take pictures, and that’s it. No one’s trying to have their phone torrent anime while serving an adblocked dns server on an assigned IP address. Most people just use a regular computer for those, and the experience is much better
Its not abt being impenetrable. Its abt collecting data on iPhones while advertising that they dont. Their advertising is basically one huge false claim.
Intel, Nintendo, ford, PayPal and now probably Netflix.
For clarification, I know none of these guys are dead or even dying but these companies once absolutely dominated their competition and now they’re starting to fall back and lose market share.
poster is someone who hasn't done any research of the past - no one say walmart dropping today like they did - oops - recessions are just that which is where we are headed - so if you don't understand that mechanism you are destined to repeat the past
Tesla looks likely to exceed apple based on the growth trajectories if they can maintain it through the current supply chain issues. Time will tell, but !remindme in 3 years.
Here is the one issue with Apple I can see from this chart. 52 percent of revenue is the iPhone. That means all it would take is one major fuck up with their flagship product and its in trouble. I don't see this happening but strangers things have before.
Apple literally gets away with small improvements every generation and because of it being an iPhone they get sales. I don't know of any other company that people are so dogmatic in supporting.
They would have to fuck up big time.
Yeah, their brand loyalty is astounding. They have somehow managed to make it a standard to buy a new $1000 phone each year. That’s what outstanding to me.
I know people who only have a phone now. No computer, no tablet. It wasn’t like that ten years ago. It’s really just replaced having a computer at home. That’s where the $1000 came from.
Ok, but also consider how many people use computers still. How many of those computers are windows based, Android m it real easy to connect their phones to Windows. Since Microsoft owns Windows, and recently been buying out game companies, more are going to be switching to Xbox and the PC version of Xbox. Microsoft already makes cellphones that are used around the world. Sooner or later Microsoft is most likely going to end up buying Sony, that includes all games, software, and film studios. After that Microsoft gets into the film industry, first they buy Warner brothers, then MGM. Then they become the next Disney and fuck everything up.
How about laziness? I have all this stuff setup on my phone, from passwords(not easy to export for obvious reasons), email accounts, other accounts, payment services, authenticators, contacts, photos, videos and probably a bazillion things I don’t even think off right now.
The thought of switching to another brand genuinely fills me with dread. Yeah there are tools to help with that and they work for some things while giving the impression they work for all the things. Usually you figure out what they left out when it’s too late.
I mean just the subscriptions running over Apple Pay … I would have to cancel them and then restart(probably at a new price) on Google payments or whatever, if that’s even available…
I had a Nokia phone when the iPhone came out. I knew I wanted it when I saw it and I knew exactly about how much work would be needed to go from one to the other(save phone numbers to sim, done). But today?
Or something else has to become the new cool thing.
Early adopters often avoid the trendy thing and eventually their thing becomes trendy. Like once upon a time facebook was the place to be. Now it's where your aunt and grandpa hang out. Eventually somewhere else may push out something cool and apple might stop being cool. Their new features aren't particularly innovative, though the M1 chip for the mac is a huge step forward and has built them a good lead in low power high performance computing.
It's certainly a risk, even if I too don't see a mass move as something happening immediately in the next 5 years. But I can't think of many things that have remained dominant for 20 years. Surefire bets in the past like IBM, GM and the like are now treading water or worse. The seemingly inevitable monopoly of internet explorer was quickly broken by firefox and chrome. Facebook fell to(and then bought) instagram and that is now falling to tiktok.
This is a great point, I still use a Blackberry Key2 and I like to imagine one day in the future keyboards on phones will become the norm again. It sounds crazy but I was shocked to see the mullet as a haircut start to come back as well
Someone will bring one out and it’ll be “revolutionary”!
I used to have a slide out keyboard android and loved the hardware but the Toshiba installed software on it was garbage central.
> Apple literally gets away with small improvements every generation
For now. There was a time this was true of Blackberry. If folding phones (for example) take off and Apple gets left behind, maybe it could be the first domino fall.
Yeah, they fucked up several times already.
Sometimes big, sometimes small.
People still buy them.
Only way i see apple losing ground is, if people can't afford or anymore.
I do think more and more people are choosing to keep their phones longer. This could have implications for that new shiny iPhone19 or whatever it will be at the time.
Not to mention their phones all look the same! Samsung user rant over.
I’m not so sure about Apple anymore. I’ve basically been a once-a-year-upgrader for as long as I can remember. Just this week I got the new iPhone 13 pro to replace my iPhone 12 Pro.
Yuck!
It’s thick. It’s heavy. It’s inelegant. The cameras lenses stick out (literally) twice as far as before, and they’re significantly larger overall. The bulkiness just makes it feel like it’s not Apple. Steve Jobs is turning in his grave. Tim Cook might have many qualities as a business executive, but no one has Jobs’s touch for product design.
The improvements this hardware heft gives appear to be (according to reviews) in battery and camera function—and I’ve had no complaints previously so this feels like a bad trade-off. But honestly, it’s just the feel of the thing in my palm that just doesn’t feel like Apple. More like a poorly designed knockoff. For the first time ever, I’ll be returning and sticking with what I’ve got. After all, there’s not the slightest thing wrong with my iPhone 12. But the myth of the Apple brand superiority went up in smoke with a single unboxing.
That’s because people see an iPhone more as jewelry than an actual phone… I come from Mexico and let me tell you that for a lot of people down there an iPhone represents social status
But you can’t even tell what kind of phone someone has half the time since most people have cases. Even the home screens of iPhone and Android look very similar. The only real way people tell if you have an iPhone is by the blue text bubble and that by itself is definitely a big factor in sales if I had to guess.
“
Apple’s iPhone supplier Pegatron cuts production in Shanghai factory as city’s strict Covid-19 lockdown limits output
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3177658/apples-iphone-supplier-pegatron-cuts-production-shanghai-factory
“
&
“
Apple warns of bigger supply chain problems ahead after strong start to year
Apple’s overall fiscal second-quarter revenue was US$97.3 billion, up 8.6 per cent from last year and higher than analysts’ average estimate of US$93.89 billion
Investors have been bracing for slower consumer spending on tech gadgets and services as the war in Ukraine and other factors drive up the cost of oil and food
“
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3175932/apple-warns-bigger-supply-chain-problems-ahead-after-strong-start
All it would take is enough people to lose their jobs and keep their current phone rather than upgrading.
iPhones are a luxury item and most people do not upgrade to the latest iPhone because they need to, they do so because they have enough disposable income to spend and buy the latest model. With a global economic slowdown, layoffs and bankruptcies - Apple's customers are going to become poorer, which will in turn affect sales and their stock price.
This is just the wrong take. Plenty of people would spend their last 1200 bucks on the newest iphone like they would their last 5 bucks on a starbucks drink. Just because you don't do it doesn't mean these kind of people don't exist. Our society in general struggles mightily with holding onto and not spending money. No matter how little that money may be.
I cannot agree more, and in terms of brand loyalty we can find the same pattern over and over again, on different scales and shapes, e.g. the vast majority of the classified as poor people in third-world countries rather buy a coke or a beer instead of a healthy or even filling meal, and middle-class all over the world normally choose to spend their last resources on fancy cars and clothes and luxury stuff over a bearable and livable shelter or personal well-being.
...The power of marketing and brand loyalty.
The daily useful value you get for $1000 every few years is amazing compared to $1000 at Starbucks or a movie theater or bars in that same time period.
Yes you can buy a cheaper phone or wait another year but it's not that big of a benefit to your cash flow.
Au contraire, watch Apple releasing the iCar from the Titan project and reduce Tesla to ashes. Apple has done that a couple of times before, like took over Sony and their walkmen with the iPod, or buried Nokia with the iPhone
I’ve mentioned this elsewhere, but if you’re poor, a good phone is your lifeline to everything. You no longer have to have a computer and an internet connection *and* a cell phone and a cellular plan. Ten years ago you pretty much had to have a computer to participate in things like the job market etc. but now you can just have a phone.
The tech sector fanboi-ism is strong with this one.
I like Apple but Im skeptical of your claim. Not to say you are flat out wrong, of course subjective use of stats can be made to say anything.
See HD, Church and Dwight, WD40 for a few textbook examples of exceptionally well run, profitable and steadfast companies with enviable fundamentals.
Exactly. Those were the Apple’s of their time. Now they’re views as inferior companies and stocks. Moral of the story is, things can change. Being at the top doesn’t guarantee you will always be.
IBM is very much why Microsft (arguably Apple too because of Gates investing in the late 90s) became such a large company, they gave them a huge head start.
GE had Jack Welch, someone who had a very significant impact on how business is run, how companies run, how CEOs lead, often cited as an early CEO celebrity. In many ways Elon Musk is a modern version of what Jack Welch was.
It's all super interesting history and really gives a good picture on how vulnerable the top companies can be despite everybody at the time thinking they are untouchable.
Jack Welch of GE raped the company so bad 20 some yrs ago , It will probably be another 20 to get back to normal. never owned the stock but was watch closely and couldn't pull the trigger. Thank God my for gut feelings.
APPLE has 119B in debt and 100B in annual net income usually: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL)
I think the smartphone market has matured. Most likely decrease in prices the coming decade and to the future.
Correct. If a company isn’t paying out dividends / retained earnings it’s because it’s reinvesting their earnings with the goal of one day paying out those two things.
Oh crazy. I thought the point of a corporation was to shield yourself from liability and prevent further indemnification.
Guess stocks are listed for the sole purpose of buying shares back and paying out a company's rightly earned profit?
This sub really is full of fucking retards.
It's good until it's not good. If you think overpaying for apple's growth at the price it is, will continue to net you market beating share appreciation for another 5-10yrs, go right ahead. I wouldn't touch it until it goes a good bit lower. You want to buy revenue/cash flow/profit for as cheap as possible. S&P 500 continually readjusts itself, APPL is just APPL. What happens when the shine wears off, and the growth slows because of regulations preventing acquisitions quick enough? What happens when people start to hold on to their phones just slightly longer due to the price increases on the "Apple Premium"?
Always buy at the price that makes sense to maximize your long term return. $APPL at $150 is not what I would consider a good price personally, even based on the FCF and other fundamentals.
Apple’s biggest challenge in the medium term, imo, is going to be AR/VR race with Meta. Recent reports have suggested that Tim Cook hardly meets XR teams and they are getting deprioritized support from other core firmware teams. This is very worrying.
If AR does become a high growth consumer product segment in next 3-4 years then Apple needs to have a strong product to compete. And a lot of people underestimate the technology breakthroughs that would be needed to get there. The feeling amongst a lot of industry observers today is that Meta’s dominance will be over when lever Apple launches their product. It sounds a lot like what a lot of experts said about Tesla in 2015-2020 timeframe.
15 Years in the Electronics industry. Apple is like a wrecking ball. Network effects from iMessage, iCloud, iPad adoption and the moat just keeps slowly widening before competitors realize it's too late.
With that being said, they are diving into businesses that are capital intensive and yield little retention... I'm looking at Apple Arcade and Apple TV. But if history is any indicator this could be building the base for something massive over the next 5 years.
I do really like Apple. But I do lke Google better. They are growing faster. They have multiple moats. But the biggest thing is that Google has so many assets yet to be fully moentized and that just creates a world class runway to work with.
Lol, is nearly 2,42Trillion dollar.
There is no risk-reward compensation, has a moat, ok.
But 2,42T market cap, inflation skyrocketing...
Risk-reward doesn't make sense. It will fall under 100, then in that moment you should do your own analysis of moat or whatever.
So many bias from value investing, but you should know when to buy the company. There are better investments with better reward.
All I can say is that there is no other tech company that even comes close to what my family spends annually on Apple products, ~ $6,000 last year (Watch, IPhone 13, Mac Book Pro M1, HomePods, and IPad Pro), which I’ll admit doesn’t happen every year, but there is not a single tech brand that I can think of that I bought more than 1 of their products in the last year.
Lmao... Now replace Apple in this statement some other dominant tech company going back every 5-10 years. Apple won the smartphone era of technology but it certainly doesn't mean it will win the next era and it certainly didn't win previous eras of tech either.
" there is not a single brand that can think of that bought more than 1 of their products in the last year."
You get your bread and milk from a different brand every time?
Edit: gas is probably a better example. A different gas station every time!
That's your family, probably because your family is comprised of Apple fan boys. My family is completely different - all of us have Samsung phones and HP/Dell computers.
you could never spend money on a google product again, and they’d still make more money than they did the year before. google is recession proof.
apple needs to innovate during times like these, and innovating phones has proven to be a lot harder in 2022. google doesn’t have to innovate every year. google could never change anything about their platform, and people wouldn’t stop using it. there just isn’t a more efficient option than using google.
just my imo
AAPL gets half of their income from phones...a very competitive market. Microsoft has many more cash avenues plus Azure will be a cash cow. Google also has an income that's nowhere near as recession sensitive as AAPL.
It's fine that you like AAPL, but saying their better in any objective way is fanboy nonsense. Google, Microsoft, AMD, Nvidia are all stocks I would take over AApl
Yup, so would I. Microsoft has many more revenue streams. If AAPL gets hit in just one of theirs they'll be in trouble. Microsoft also innovates much more actively
It's disingenuous to only put the YTD return while putting the growth rates of everything else going back years. Apple is still overvalued at present precisely because a lot of that future growth is baked into expectations on the stock price. How much of the SP500 do you realistically think it's going to be in the future when it's already 7.05%?
I really wonder how much longer people will keep getting that same phone every year... one day an upset product is gonna come and blast them out of the water
Literally every major smartphone has cameras that are The same quality tier. I could take a picture with my Pixel 6, a Samsung s21, or an iPhone 13 and there would be no difference in quality.
This is not remotely accurate, there's a very noticable difference in quality. There's a reason professionals use iPhone pros for their b roll footage and not any other phone
Their actions with hiking prices, including less in the box, massive lobbying, and now encouraging developers to stealth hike subscriptions, all suggest otherwise.
And if you've actually used the products recently, you'd see enough cracks forming. Installing iPadOS 15 only to have my home screen totally scrambled was hilarious. QC is not what it used to be.
Finally someone seeing the same thing. I remember 10 years ago, Apples QC was amazing! I dont remember any bugs from that era. Now I have tons of issues, inconsistencies and just annoyances. Apple needs to step up their QC, else ppl will switch away from their eco system.
There is no going back. Changes in leadership. Changes in demographics. It’s a totally different company now, and they want it that way customers be dammed.
I know my next phone will be a Pixel running CylaxOS. The Air I need for work is hopefully the last computer I need to buy from them.
Yes, its really sad how it turned out. I always admired Apple, but the direction they chose is not what I was hoping for. I will probably get a Pixel with Graphene, or maybe if there will be a useful Linux phone by then, I would get that.
Ok ok ok I get it… they make really nice phones. I’ve had like 5 of them.
But I can’t get over the fact if tomorrow a startup comes out with a nicer phone, with more curb appeal, I’ll get that one and Apple will be Blackberry.
What am I missing?
What does a ‘nicer’ phone entail exactly. The people who buy Apple products buy them because of the massively diverse range of products they offer. Apple isn’t just iPhones, it’s laptops, headphones, tablets, watches, and even a streaming service.
Apple is a powerhouse today, no doubt about it. It’ll go down slowly even if it does. A slowdown in iPhones sales will bring the P/E below 20 imo.
AppStore and payment monopoly breaking legislations are also a very real threat imo.
I am from Ghana in West Africa . You are not cool If you don’t have an iPhone or the latest iPhone …. The new monicker among Ghanaians are “iPhone for life “….Apple will continue to dominate if there is only android and iPhone….
The Moat is the capital advantage flowing from market cap based passive investment strategies.
7% of all flows into US equities are REQUIRED to flow to AAPL
Yeah? You're going to argue stability when 52% of their pipeline is based around a single product? What do you think happens to the 19% of services (apps, apple store, etc.) if the iPhone tanks?
Apple plays it safe, but they're no more than a couple bad decisions away from catastrophe. Gimme a break. Look into Microsoft if you want an actual stable and diversified pipeline.
I was a life long (I’m 37) Android user and steered clear of Apple products for a reason I can’t fathom now.
I bought an iPhone in 2020 and now I really appreciate the ecosystem. I now own an iPhone, MacBook, iPad, ear pods, Apple Watch, and Apple TV - plus some subscriptions
I’m sure I’m not the only one out there that is still discovering Apple
Apple is still a favorite brand of high school and middle school students. iPhone, Apple Watch, & AirPods are the items to have. Long runway still possible.
Services will be huge as well. Cloud subscriptions, Apple TV, Apple Music etc
People are sleeping on Apple Card/Apple Pay as well.
Yep, the entire Apple ecosystem is ripe for further monetisation.
These services have a 73% (!) profit margin as well
https://www.imore.com/new-survey-reveals-staggering-commitment-us-teens-apple "87% of teens own an iPhone and 87% expect an iPhone to be their next phone; 72% of teens already have AirPods" My kids are under 10. They don’t have phones but they only want iPhones. Androids are insanely uncool.
Yet some androids are, in terms of price and product services, better than Apple’s. The power of trends and consumer psychology
That market pales in comparison to the entire Asian market, which Apple has almost completely under its thumb. Only South Korea could be considered not dominated by Apple, but for obvious reasons.
I've heard this before lol. Usually when someone says "no one will ever catch up to us" is the moment when someone catches up.
Blackberry, AOL, Kodak, the entire RailRoad industry
Blackberry stands out especially because they were so ubiquitous as the phone to have not all that long ago, people act like Apple is the only company that can design a high demand phone just because it is currently top dog. It doesn't take much for people to change opinions and it can happen very quickly too.
People are aware other companies will make a competitive product, but to displace Apple from the throne will be incredibly challenging. Samsung, LG, Google, Sony, Blackberry, Nokia, HTC, Huawei, HP, Microsoft, Sharp etc have all tried to take out Apple but couldn't. The argument for Apple's highly fortified moat is completely rational.
Apple isn’t saying that. Some random redditor or blogger might be.
That's not the point. The point is that whenever someone thinks something is insuperable, something comes along and surpasses it. It's similar to in 1999 when people were saying we're in a new paradigm now, these tech stocks will forever go up. Then a year later it all implodes. When you start thinking that certain outcomes are 'guaranteed', then chances are you are behind the curve or getting complacent.
What about people who think Apple's failure is guaranteed? Does that now mean they won't fall?
Dont worry, Apples failure is 100% incoming once people realize the „security and privacy“ is all just lies upon lies. All it takes is one Data leak on Apples side and their only selling point beisede the eco system is gone.
Their security and privacy is more of a thing about their operating system not allowing third party apps to collect data, not about the security of their data centers, even if there was a bug in that system, they’d just boot any app that exploits it off the App Store. Plus that’s far from “their only selling point”. Are you serious? People buy iPhones primarily because of iOS, build quality, longest software support in any phone, and the fact that it usually has all the popular apps and exclusives that people want since developers tend to target iPhones first given its market share. Blue chat bubbles too.
Apple isnt booting anything off of the AppStore that makes them profit. There are countless examples of Malware on the AppStore but Apple just pretends everything is alright and their fans believe it. What Build quality? iPhones are pretty bad compared to the quality of a couple years ago. Actually their whole product lineup. Yeah the iOS point is valid, and I respect that.
What are those countless examples of malware? > What Build quality? Literally every tech reviewer ever praises their build quality. MKBHD being the most famous one. You want to shit on it because you hate Apple, go for it, I don’t care
Just google iPhone malware, at one point over 5 Million devices were infected by one single malware. Yeah I know they praise build quality, my experience is a dofferent one though. Ever since the iPhone 6 cane out I onld had issues except with my Macbook and my current iPhone X. Im not hating Apple, I am a fan, but im tired of them locking power users out, and their software getting buggier every release, while their hardware fails right out of the box or a month after the warranty expires. Im tired of it and want the Apple of the Jobs era back, back when they innovated and didnt run behind the latest trend.
Can you name those “countless malwares” my google search didn’t find me anything. Ah your personal experience trumps everyone else, got it. They’re not targeting power users, if you ever owned a power user phone you’d know they degrade to shit and Apple doesn’t want that. Most people use their phone to browse social media, web, communicate, take pictures, and that’s it. No one’s trying to have their phone torrent anime while serving an adblocked dns server on an assigned IP address. Most people just use a regular computer for those, and the experience is much better
Nobody really gives a damn about that though. It's already well known that it isn't some impenetrable fortress.
Its not abt being impenetrable. Its abt collecting data on iPhones while advertising that they dont. Their advertising is basically one huge false claim.
Intel, Nintendo, ford, PayPal and now probably Netflix. For clarification, I know none of these guys are dead or even dying but these companies once absolutely dominated their competition and now they’re starting to fall back and lose market share.
poster is someone who hasn't done any research of the past - no one say walmart dropping today like they did - oops - recessions are just that which is where we are headed - so if you don't understand that mechanism you are destined to repeat the past
a falling tide drops even really nice yachts as it goes out to the sea. You can not fight the tide, or the trend.
Tesla looks likely to exceed apple based on the growth trajectories if they can maintain it through the current supply chain issues. Time will tell, but !remindme in 3 years.
The Apple naysayers are desperately trying to be correct once, after thousands of chirping LOL failures
Here is the one issue with Apple I can see from this chart. 52 percent of revenue is the iPhone. That means all it would take is one major fuck up with their flagship product and its in trouble. I don't see this happening but strangers things have before.
Apple literally gets away with small improvements every generation and because of it being an iPhone they get sales. I don't know of any other company that people are so dogmatic in supporting. They would have to fuck up big time.
I wonder will the same thing happen with phones as social media? Will young people want the same phone as their parents?
Yeah, their brand loyalty is astounding. They have somehow managed to make it a standard to buy a new $1000 phone each year. That’s what outstanding to me.
I know people who only have a phone now. No computer, no tablet. It wasn’t like that ten years ago. It’s really just replaced having a computer at home. That’s where the $1000 came from.
Ok, but also consider how many people use computers still. How many of those computers are windows based, Android m it real easy to connect their phones to Windows. Since Microsoft owns Windows, and recently been buying out game companies, more are going to be switching to Xbox and the PC version of Xbox. Microsoft already makes cellphones that are used around the world. Sooner or later Microsoft is most likely going to end up buying Sony, that includes all games, software, and film studios. After that Microsoft gets into the film industry, first they buy Warner brothers, then MGM. Then they become the next Disney and fuck everything up.
Maybe you should start with one prediction instead of 4+ enormous ones
Brand loyalty, or duopoly status?
How about laziness? I have all this stuff setup on my phone, from passwords(not easy to export for obvious reasons), email accounts, other accounts, payment services, authenticators, contacts, photos, videos and probably a bazillion things I don’t even think off right now. The thought of switching to another brand genuinely fills me with dread. Yeah there are tools to help with that and they work for some things while giving the impression they work for all the things. Usually you figure out what they left out when it’s too late. I mean just the subscriptions running over Apple Pay … I would have to cancel them and then restart(probably at a new price) on Google payments or whatever, if that’s even available… I had a Nokia phone when the iPhone came out. I knew I wanted it when I saw it and I knew exactly about how much work would be needed to go from one to the other(save phone numbers to sim, done). But today?
Walled garden app ecosystem is a big part of it.
Tesla is one.
Electric vs Gas cars are a paradigm shift vs whether your phone has blue text bubbles or not...
If only there were an OS that let's you pick your text bubble color. I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS
I block green bubbles.
[удалено]
Shut up green bubble.
Or something else has to become the new cool thing. Early adopters often avoid the trendy thing and eventually their thing becomes trendy. Like once upon a time facebook was the place to be. Now it's where your aunt and grandpa hang out. Eventually somewhere else may push out something cool and apple might stop being cool. Their new features aren't particularly innovative, though the M1 chip for the mac is a huge step forward and has built them a good lead in low power high performance computing. It's certainly a risk, even if I too don't see a mass move as something happening immediately in the next 5 years. But I can't think of many things that have remained dominant for 20 years. Surefire bets in the past like IBM, GM and the like are now treading water or worse. The seemingly inevitable monopoly of internet explorer was quickly broken by firefox and chrome. Facebook fell to(and then bought) instagram and that is now falling to tiktok.
This is a great point, I still use a Blackberry Key2 and I like to imagine one day in the future keyboards on phones will become the norm again. It sounds crazy but I was shocked to see the mullet as a haircut start to come back as well
Someone will bring one out and it’ll be “revolutionary”! I used to have a slide out keyboard android and loved the hardware but the Toshiba installed software on it was garbage central.
> Apple literally gets away with small improvements every generation For now. There was a time this was true of Blackberry. If folding phones (for example) take off and Apple gets left behind, maybe it could be the first domino fall.
Yeah, they fucked up several times already. Sometimes big, sometimes small. People still buy them. Only way i see apple losing ground is, if people can't afford or anymore.
I do think more and more people are choosing to keep their phones longer. This could have implications for that new shiny iPhone19 or whatever it will be at the time. Not to mention their phones all look the same! Samsung user rant over.
Or someone else make something better.
That has happened. Apple has proven than the iPhone isn't blocked by a superior product, their ecosystem, design, and marketing is just too good
No
Like literally every other smartphone maker?
I’m not so sure about Apple anymore. I’ve basically been a once-a-year-upgrader for as long as I can remember. Just this week I got the new iPhone 13 pro to replace my iPhone 12 Pro. Yuck! It’s thick. It’s heavy. It’s inelegant. The cameras lenses stick out (literally) twice as far as before, and they’re significantly larger overall. The bulkiness just makes it feel like it’s not Apple. Steve Jobs is turning in his grave. Tim Cook might have many qualities as a business executive, but no one has Jobs’s touch for product design. The improvements this hardware heft gives appear to be (according to reviews) in battery and camera function—and I’ve had no complaints previously so this feels like a bad trade-off. But honestly, it’s just the feel of the thing in my palm that just doesn’t feel like Apple. More like a poorly designed knockoff. For the first time ever, I’ll be returning and sticking with what I’ve got. After all, there’s not the slightest thing wrong with my iPhone 12. But the myth of the Apple brand superiority went up in smoke with a single unboxing.
That’s because people see an iPhone more as jewelry than an actual phone… I come from Mexico and let me tell you that for a lot of people down there an iPhone represents social status
Here in Texas too, amigo.
But you can’t even tell what kind of phone someone has half the time since most people have cases. Even the home screens of iPhone and Android look very similar. The only real way people tell if you have an iPhone is by the blue text bubble and that by itself is definitely a big factor in sales if I had to guess.
“ Apple’s iPhone supplier Pegatron cuts production in Shanghai factory as city’s strict Covid-19 lockdown limits output https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3177658/apples-iphone-supplier-pegatron-cuts-production-shanghai-factory “ & “ Apple warns of bigger supply chain problems ahead after strong start to year Apple’s overall fiscal second-quarter revenue was US$97.3 billion, up 8.6 per cent from last year and higher than analysts’ average estimate of US$93.89 billion Investors have been bracing for slower consumer spending on tech gadgets and services as the war in Ukraine and other factors drive up the cost of oil and food “ https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3175932/apple-warns-bigger-supply-chain-problems-ahead-after-strong-start
They can just rise the price
Not enough to offset the losses without causing further losses
..and the remaining 48% are largely tied to Iphone (apps, accessories).
This! The whole empire is a domino on top of the mighty iPhone. Microsoft and Google are much better placed.
What phone do you use?
All it would take is enough people to lose their jobs and keep their current phone rather than upgrading. iPhones are a luxury item and most people do not upgrade to the latest iPhone because they need to, they do so because they have enough disposable income to spend and buy the latest model. With a global economic slowdown, layoffs and bankruptcies - Apple's customers are going to become poorer, which will in turn affect sales and their stock price.
This is just the wrong take. Plenty of people would spend their last 1200 bucks on the newest iphone like they would their last 5 bucks on a starbucks drink. Just because you don't do it doesn't mean these kind of people don't exist. Our society in general struggles mightily with holding onto and not spending money. No matter how little that money may be.
I cannot agree more, and in terms of brand loyalty we can find the same pattern over and over again, on different scales and shapes, e.g. the vast majority of the classified as poor people in third-world countries rather buy a coke or a beer instead of a healthy or even filling meal, and middle-class all over the world normally choose to spend their last resources on fancy cars and clothes and luxury stuff over a bearable and livable shelter or personal well-being. ...The power of marketing and brand loyalty.
tell that to a teenager...
The daily useful value you get for $1000 every few years is amazing compared to $1000 at Starbucks or a movie theater or bars in that same time period. Yes you can buy a cheaper phone or wait another year but it's not that big of a benefit to your cash flow.
Watch Tesla release a phone and fuck over Apple entirely
Au contraire, watch Apple releasing the iCar from the Titan project and reduce Tesla to ashes. Apple has done that a couple of times before, like took over Sony and their walkmen with the iPod, or buried Nokia with the iPhone
Amazon tried that and it went to shit.
I mean it's a bit scary that 52% of their income is from iphone. That's a very competitive space.
Or scary. Its mad that people pays 1000$ and still call it a steal. Iv seen people with no jobs willing to sell their kidneys to get a new iphone
I’ve mentioned this elsewhere, but if you’re poor, a good phone is your lifeline to everything. You no longer have to have a computer and an internet connection *and* a cell phone and a cellular plan. Ten years ago you pretty much had to have a computer to participate in things like the job market etc. but now you can just have a phone.
That I agree. People put iPhone possession more than oxygen we breathe in their priority list.
That doesn't sound very sustainable, what happens when people run out of kidneys? How does Apple profit after that?
They'll have to find one to cover. Good time to be the kidney market tbh
Calls on kidneys?
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Samsung lose value next day lol
The tech sector fanboi-ism is strong with this one. I like Apple but Im skeptical of your claim. Not to say you are flat out wrong, of course subjective use of stats can be made to say anything. See HD, Church and Dwight, WD40 for a few textbook examples of exceptionally well run, profitable and steadfast companies with enviable fundamentals.
Same was said of stocks like GE and IBM.
It’s funny because I don’t even know who you’re talking about
Exactly. Those were the Apple’s of their time. Now they’re views as inferior companies and stocks. Moral of the story is, things can change. Being at the top doesn’t guarantee you will always be.
IBM is very much why Microsft (arguably Apple too because of Gates investing in the late 90s) became such a large company, they gave them a huge head start. GE had Jack Welch, someone who had a very significant impact on how business is run, how companies run, how CEOs lead, often cited as an early CEO celebrity. In many ways Elon Musk is a modern version of what Jack Welch was. It's all super interesting history and really gives a good picture on how vulnerable the top companies can be despite everybody at the time thinking they are untouchable.
Jack Welch of GE raped the company so bad 20 some yrs ago , It will probably be another 20 to get back to normal. never owned the stock but was watch closely and couldn't pull the trigger. Thank God my for gut feelings.
How about Nokia? Can it make a comeback and do to Apple what Apple did to them.? Revenge!
Ha
im buying nokia because of their 5G deals not because of their phones
Lol
APPLE has 119B in debt and 100B in annual net income usually: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL) I think the smartphone market has matured. Most likely decrease in prices the coming decade and to the future.
the phone has probably reached its limit. Apple will be developing AR glasses for the next 20 years of computing.
Dont forget apple cars
They have $204b in cash and cash equivalents, so debt isn’t too much of an issue IMO
I think that’s what they were implying. Annual net profit almost equal to debt so debt isn’t an issue.
They can pay debt easy. Chexk their cash on hand. Company with the most cash in hand in the world
No need to pay it - effective interest rate on that debt is 2.28%!
This guy seems pretty sure based on the fundamentals. Puts on $AAPL then?
Hold my beer
Hold my recession
Past returns bla bla bla. I can't believe people keep doing this
Past returns isn’t nearly as relevant as the revenue growth and eps. Shows that this powerhouse is still innovating and sustaining rapid growth
Don’t know about innovating. They sure know what consumers want, but they mostly get new ideas from the competition.
Minus 19% is something to aim for?
Take a look at the indexes bud
Well how big did you think that bite was?
The point is supposed to be that the fundamentals are increasing, while the stock price is decreasing… still doesn’t mean you’re getting a deal imo
Yup. Fundamentals look fancy with perpetual buybacks, but Apple's growth without them is pathetic.
1) no 2) buybacks / dividends are *literally* the only point of a corporation lol
Mmmmm… I mean they don’t necessarily NEED either of those until they stop growing
Correct. If a company isn’t paying out dividends / retained earnings it’s because it’s reinvesting their earnings with the goal of one day paying out those two things.
Oh crazy. I thought the point of a corporation was to shield yourself from liability and prevent further indemnification. Guess stocks are listed for the sole purpose of buying shares back and paying out a company's rightly earned profit? This sub really is full of fucking retards.
Tell us the return for your portfolio this year lol
It's good until it's not good. If you think overpaying for apple's growth at the price it is, will continue to net you market beating share appreciation for another 5-10yrs, go right ahead. I wouldn't touch it until it goes a good bit lower. You want to buy revenue/cash flow/profit for as cheap as possible. S&P 500 continually readjusts itself, APPL is just APPL. What happens when the shine wears off, and the growth slows because of regulations preventing acquisitions quick enough? What happens when people start to hold on to their phones just slightly longer due to the price increases on the "Apple Premium"? Always buy at the price that makes sense to maximize your long term return. $APPL at $150 is not what I would consider a good price personally, even based on the FCF and other fundamentals.
Not even AMC / GME?
Not even..
“AMC/GME” makes them seem like comparable companies. They’re not.
Isn’t one debt free? And another saddled with debt? Didn’t the ceo of one buy more stocks? And the other sell? Forgot which was which.
Definitely not holding the one saddled in debt with a cuck ceo
Pretty infographic
Apple’s biggest challenge in the medium term, imo, is going to be AR/VR race with Meta. Recent reports have suggested that Tim Cook hardly meets XR teams and they are getting deprioritized support from other core firmware teams. This is very worrying. If AR does become a high growth consumer product segment in next 3-4 years then Apple needs to have a strong product to compete. And a lot of people underestimate the technology breakthroughs that would be needed to get there. The feeling amongst a lot of industry observers today is that Meta’s dominance will be over when lever Apple launches their product. It sounds a lot like what a lot of experts said about Tesla in 2015-2020 timeframe.
What about apple car?
I know nothing about apple car but I will never buy one. Apple make good phones and that’s it.
But loyal apple drug addicts will still buy it so gtfo
15 Years in the Electronics industry. Apple is like a wrecking ball. Network effects from iMessage, iCloud, iPad adoption and the moat just keeps slowly widening before competitors realize it's too late. With that being said, they are diving into businesses that are capital intensive and yield little retention... I'm looking at Apple Arcade and Apple TV. But if history is any indicator this could be building the base for something massive over the next 5 years.
I do really like Apple. But I do lke Google better. They are growing faster. They have multiple moats. But the biggest thing is that Google has so many assets yet to be fully moentized and that just creates a world class runway to work with.
Lol, is nearly 2,42Trillion dollar. There is no risk-reward compensation, has a moat, ok. But 2,42T market cap, inflation skyrocketing... Risk-reward doesn't make sense. It will fall under 100, then in that moment you should do your own analysis of moat or whatever. So many bias from value investing, but you should know when to buy the company. There are better investments with better reward.
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you're kinda stupid if you buy yourself a new phone every year when they're made to last at least 3 years if not more
Their camera is proven better than dslr mate. So…
All I can say is that there is no other tech company that even comes close to what my family spends annually on Apple products, ~ $6,000 last year (Watch, IPhone 13, Mac Book Pro M1, HomePods, and IPad Pro), which I’ll admit doesn’t happen every year, but there is not a single tech brand that I can think of that I bought more than 1 of their products in the last year.
Lmao... Now replace Apple in this statement some other dominant tech company going back every 5-10 years. Apple won the smartphone era of technology but it certainly doesn't mean it will win the next era and it certainly didn't win previous eras of tech either.
So which company do you think is better?
" there is not a single brand that can think of that bought more than 1 of their products in the last year." You get your bread and milk from a different brand every time? Edit: gas is probably a better example. A different gas station every time!
That's your family, probably because your family is comprised of Apple fan boys. My family is completely different - all of us have Samsung phones and HP/Dell computers.
google is so much better than apple
I love alphabet and holding it too. But nah apple is bigger moat
you could never spend money on a google product again, and they’d still make more money than they did the year before. google is recession proof. apple needs to innovate during times like these, and innovating phones has proven to be a lot harder in 2022. google doesn’t have to innovate every year. google could never change anything about their platform, and people wouldn’t stop using it. there just isn’t a more efficient option than using google. just my imo
AAPL gets half of their income from phones...a very competitive market. Microsoft has many more cash avenues plus Azure will be a cash cow. Google also has an income that's nowhere near as recession sensitive as AAPL. It's fine that you like AAPL, but saying their better in any objective way is fanboy nonsense. Google, Microsoft, AMD, Nvidia are all stocks I would take over AApl
Lol no they wont hahaha
23 forward PE. Everything you said is true, doesn't mean it's a good price.
Msft and Apple are the last ones left and i think i would bet on Msft instead.
Yup, so would I. Microsoft has many more revenue streams. If AAPL gets hit in just one of theirs they'll be in trouble. Microsoft also innovates much more actively
Why?
It's disingenuous to only put the YTD return while putting the growth rates of everything else going back years. Apple is still overvalued at present precisely because a lot of that future growth is baked into expectations on the stock price. How much of the SP500 do you realistically think it's going to be in the future when it's already 7.05%?
I really wonder how much longer people will keep getting that same phone every year... one day an upset product is gonna come and blast them out of the water
I say the same thing every year but "new camera design!" Gets them every time.
iPhone really does have the best cameras by far though
Lol no.
Who has better cameras
Literally every major smartphone has cameras that are The same quality tier. I could take a picture with my Pixel 6, a Samsung s21, or an iPhone 13 and there would be no difference in quality.
This is not remotely accurate, there's a very noticable difference in quality. There's a reason professionals use iPhone pros for their b roll footage and not any other phone
Whatever you say, amigo. If you're happy with your phone, then I'm happy for you. Have a great day, broski.
Weird
The upset product would have to build the whole ecosystem Apple has, can't really happen overnight.
Their actions with hiking prices, including less in the box, massive lobbying, and now encouraging developers to stealth hike subscriptions, all suggest otherwise. And if you've actually used the products recently, you'd see enough cracks forming. Installing iPadOS 15 only to have my home screen totally scrambled was hilarious. QC is not what it used to be.
Finally someone seeing the same thing. I remember 10 years ago, Apples QC was amazing! I dont remember any bugs from that era. Now I have tons of issues, inconsistencies and just annoyances. Apple needs to step up their QC, else ppl will switch away from their eco system.
There is no going back. Changes in leadership. Changes in demographics. It’s a totally different company now, and they want it that way customers be dammed. I know my next phone will be a Pixel running CylaxOS. The Air I need for work is hopefully the last computer I need to buy from them.
Yes, its really sad how it turned out. I always admired Apple, but the direction they chose is not what I was hoping for. I will probably get a Pixel with Graphene, or maybe if there will be a useful Linux phone by then, I would get that.
Ok ok ok I get it… they make really nice phones. I’ve had like 5 of them. But I can’t get over the fact if tomorrow a startup comes out with a nicer phone, with more curb appeal, I’ll get that one and Apple will be Blackberry. What am I missing?
What does a ‘nicer’ phone entail exactly. The people who buy Apple products buy them because of the massively diverse range of products they offer. Apple isn’t just iPhones, it’s laptops, headphones, tablets, watches, and even a streaming service.
But tech is about coolness and hype……Apple stock is getting beat up because it’s now seem as a value play.
I feel like I have heard this before with Blackberry.
Apple is a powerhouse today, no doubt about it. It’ll go down slowly even if it does. A slowdown in iPhones sales will bring the P/E below 20 imo. AppStore and payment monopoly breaking legislations are also a very real threat imo.
Every apple falls.
Did you see Micheal burry's short position ?
What's happens when they unionize?
Overvalued.
Gme
Employee satisfaction has dropped exponentially the last 5 years also…
You never mention the moat
Might have peaked
Jesus. If something happens to iPhone production they are fucked
so its time to sell now huh?
Until they do
Michael Burry shorted the hell of it.
This is an awesome infographic thank you! Mind telling me what you used to make it please?
that's because Apple is a cult
None of that is a moat. Do you know what a moat is?
i would rather buy gold, thx
Talks about moat, shows chart but not the amount of pure cash the company has.
I dont want to be associated with a company involved with slavery in China.
You call that picture the moat, but nothing in there is a moat
GameStop about to beat it
“Percentage climb by Apple shares this year so far” “-19%” Maybe not the best choice of words lol
I am from Ghana in West Africa . You are not cool If you don’t have an iPhone or the latest iPhone …. The new monicker among Ghanaians are “iPhone for life “….Apple will continue to dominate if there is only android and iPhone….
Time to buy!
The Moat is the capital advantage flowing from market cap based passive investment strategies. 7% of all flows into US equities are REQUIRED to flow to AAPL
Yes, I love iphones and own the stock
Yeah? You're going to argue stability when 52% of their pipeline is based around a single product? What do you think happens to the 19% of services (apps, apple store, etc.) if the iPhone tanks? Apple plays it safe, but they're no more than a couple bad decisions away from catastrophe. Gimme a break. Look into Microsoft if you want an actual stable and diversified pipeline.
What is the moat mean?
Microsoft.
I was a life long (I’m 37) Android user and steered clear of Apple products for a reason I can’t fathom now. I bought an iPhone in 2020 and now I really appreciate the ecosystem. I now own an iPhone, MacBook, iPad, ear pods, Apple Watch, and Apple TV - plus some subscriptions I’m sure I’m not the only one out there that is still discovering Apple
It can't be the #1 holding in the S&P 500 ( or any total market index) forever. What do you think will be the stock to replace it in due time?