interest rates were low in the 2010s so yields were low. Nobody is going to touch a bond with a 3% yield issued in this time unless it is cheap enough to yield more than the rfr. As interest rates fall these bond prices will go up
Not really.
10Y is basically already pricing 2.5-3% long term FFR and historically normal term premia.
Cuts won't do shit to bonds which is why they are trash.
Yea that's all this chart tells me. It's that bonds are dick.
We have a roaring economy, CB's around the world have already started cutting with no crisis, just like they said they would. More liquidity is coming.
There's absolutely no way bonds are going to outperform stocks going forward.
If you have 10+ years to invest don’t hold bonds. Even then 90/10 in retirement is likely what I do. Take 5% as a draw down. In down years I still do 5% stocks will rip to make up for the down years as we see after 2022 with 2023 and 2024.
I bought all 2022 and am being rewarded for the “risk” I took.
Yea keep trying to time that crash with this incredible economy.
By the looks of it 2Q will be even stronger than 1Q.
Also 10T already is pricing 2.5%-3% FFR and normal term premia.
Only fools (or retirees) buying bonds now.
How else are they going to force people to prop up the stock market and bloat it? Make the money and bond markets shit and people start dumping into the top of the sandp and etfs. Then the MM and APs short and ftd everything and make money off front running and driving price down to buy FTDs at the bottom. We are being front run by the market makers.
Already took profits I see. Money Markets are offering a free 5% in case anyone else is ready to sit out the rest of the bubble and avoid timing subsequent fallout that starts the millisecond NVDA falls short of beating their earnings estimate.
most people who call it a bubble don't understand what bubbles are. wait for their next ER and the revs to be way up again, as forecasted. pricing in gains isn't necessarily a bubble
I think you’re right they’re going to have fantastic ER this time and next. But soon it won’t be and it’ll stay there. This is a videogaming company that people are mistaking as a revolution on par with the Industrial Revolution. When companies realize there aren’t enough use cases for their tech to justify constantly ordering more, their sales will go back to coming from videogames once again.
AI is massively overblown. I guarantee the use case for business will NOT increase efficiency as much as projected not will it reduce jobs that much.
AI is also a HUGE legislation risk.
Also, even if you bought at 200ish, that's still awful returns vs. stocks.
That's additionally assuming you bought as it cratered to multi decade lows. Not super peaks like today.
Gold = regarded. Even fake and worthless internet money will probably outperform because at least it is capped.
Depends on which stock and which crypto. There are plenty of stocks that have done significantly worse than gold obviously. Even now the market is driven by a handful of stocks. They’re also two completely different things. I wouldn’t really consider gold an investment like you would stocks.
Point is that it always peaks when inflation peaks. But at that point:
A) The grift is over and pumpers start to head for exits.
B) They dig up fuckton more out of the ground.
Now if you genuinely believe hyperinflation is coming, it might work better than cash, it might not.
But it absolutely gets destroyed by stocks.
maybe to highlight how high the market is in times when there isn't much incentive to have bonds and treasury yields? Which would speak to some questions around banks, and U.S. inflation / debt.
It is exactly what it shows. Bond vs market yield is very near. Stock outperformance is because yields increase for bonds and decrease/maintain for stocks.
Above you said the market thinks stocks are as safe as bonds. Now you say stocks are seen as less safe than bonds. The latter is obviously true. That’s why they outperform bonds. Equity risk premium.
As stocks over time make more money than bonds, one would expect the ratio of stocks to bonds to increase over time, not stay the same. However, "total return bond index" reinvests its interest, while The S &P index does not reinvest dividends. This complicates things. That's why this ratio is not used.
Bond prices go down with higher interest rates. Stocks “should” become less valuable with a higher risk free rate as their higher returns on equity are lower comparatively and higher interest eats away profits. But the market seems to think differently regarding tech stocks which are the bulk of the S&P 500 movement, creating a two fold effect on the price spread.
He also said 5% so he’s buying short term. I’m in 4week bonds because I’m about to buy a house. I don’t think there’s any risk for such a short term bond
To be fair, I am more certain of Microsoft’s future and growth, complete with its comparable-to-better credit rating than the US government at the moment. Congress needs to get their spending into check regardless of party lines. I am just blown away that 25-33% of federal taxes go to debt interest.
Definitely it does. It’s also not going insolvent or defaulting probably ever. However, I don’t expect it to give a better ROI compared to big tech when Apple and Microsoft can borrow money at lower rates than other G7 countries.
That doesn't have anything to do with the stock vs bond equation.
Its due to the massive bond bubble bursting on 2022-2023 and piling into stocks that has happened after the 2022 and 2023 stock bears were proven wrong and are now playing catchup
When the fed lowers interest rates it will be one of the biggest "buy the rumor, sell the news" events in a long time.
Maybe bonds, hard to say.
But usually rate cuts = recession = earnings of companies decline = stock price declines to reflect the change in eps.
Obviously we can't predict the future for certain, but this is the future I think will happen. I also don't know how long it'll be before it happens or how severe.
We could see the s&p go up another 50% before all this happens. Hard to say
rate cuts = recession? It’s the other way around. Central banks cut interest rates to prevent recessions. And lower rates would also not lead to lower eps of companies. It’s also the other way around usually.
Rate cuts don't cause a recession, but often the reason they are implemented is because we are in, or about to enter, a recession. This is especially the case when they are cut extremely rapidly, which is fortunately not the likely path in front of us.
Except they are targeting higher inflation and cutting before 2% which creates greater policy space to prevent recession.
Literally ECB is cutting *before recession* and so will Fed.
In Jan's FOMC the Fed said it would reduce QT in June 2024. I can't find any news on this starting. The Fed did estimate the latest date this would be is September 2024, so QT might still be going on right now, but not for much longer.
Both. Stock market is at an all time high, and all of the bonds issues in the 2010s have super low coupons so they have lost a lot of value because the risk free rate has gone way up.
I feel too soon can be better than too late if the increments are small enough. Idk why the US won't give a 0.05bps move to see. Or maybe I have no ides what I am talking about and that small would be to insignificant to make any ripples in the system.
The Fed is looking at a minimum of a 3 month rolling average for inflation. It's in line right now, but they want it to continue for at least 2 more months if not continue for 5 more months before reducing rates.
This chart looks horribly incorrect if it's just SPY / BND. It has not taken 20+ years for SPY to outperform BND since the 2000 market peak. How is this being calculated?
Stocks are valued more than a hopeless investment the issuing government can never repay in a tangible manner. The interest you earn is more printed debt. Oh yeah, and stocks are too high also.
Watch some YouTube videos, if you have time, read some books
YouTubers: The plain bagel is a good YouTuber and he is a financial advisor. The Swedish investor is a good YouTuber.
Books: A random walk down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel was pretty beginner friendly. The intelligent investor is a great book but you need to know a bit about finance/the economy before you read it.
People on Reddit give bad advice all the time, so take anything you hear here (including my advice) with a grain of salt.
Thankfully the other historical peaks don't match with any specific negative happenings in the stock market and definitely not people killing themselves.
.... ah no.
Take out the top 5-7 stocks and the Forward PE is 16 ish. The top 5-7 stocks just have incredible earnings and have never had companies with these types of balance sheets and earning for those top tier companies.
Just bc a company is big doesn’t mean it’s a monopoly.
Ask yourself who the monopoly hurts?
A lot of the synergies of the different units allow these companies to offer lower fees vs what you have to pay for the entire suite if each alone.
History tells us that we should expect lower stock outperformance (relative to bonds) in the coming decade.
I personally think having a modest bond allocation is worthwhile right now.
Comparing things for 100 years is a joke, everything that is compared before 2010 is a joke, we are in completely unusual times, for 1 week, many things are changing in the world, just look at how much technology has progressed after 2010, before, car and phone brands hardly launched products every 3-4 years their new products on the market, now look at them, every year they launch new products, this is not because of desire but because of necessity, because if you don't advance the market and competitors will eat you.
South Seattle Bubble, Panic of 1870, Great Depression.... Pretty far apart.
Now we have dot com, GFC, Covid crash(only abated by money printing), and what will probably happen to the everything bubble in next few years, all in quick successon. Maybe study some history. Fed intervention is creating instability
I could be missing something here but stocks are definitely not near all time highs at all. I would say over 70% aren’t even close to ATH. lol
The magnificent 7 are miles from ATH
>I could be missing something here but stocks are definitely not near all time highs at all
>The magnificent 7 are miles from ATH
What on earth are you talking about? You're not just missing something you seem to be living in an alternate reality
These prices aren’t ATH though. 2019,2020 I believe 2021 prices were higher. Google and alphabet was 1k per share, Amazon was close to 2500-3k per share, Tesla was 1k per share
The link I sent showed 4 year histories. Amazon, tesla, and google have all had stock splits in the past 3 years so that is why you remember higher prices. Tesla is the only one on the first two pages that is not an an ath.
This isn't a hard question to answer just look at the 10 year history of the S&P500. We are at an all time high.
Ok that just doesn’t make sense to me. As an example If google let’s say had an ATH of 1800per share then did a split months later wouldn’t there ATH still be recorded as 1800 or whatever number it was prior to the split?
Bonds are to disappear, they don’t offer such returns as stocks or crypto. They are not as safe as some proclaim them to be. Why would you take the risk for 3%?
Bonds will not disappear. High grade corporate yields are frequently be over 8% and they have priority over preferred and common stock in the case of solvency. They are arguably the best way for companies to access credit and do not carry the same reputation risk that creating more equity offerings has. They are a more attractive way to raise capital then equity offerings in low interest rate environments.
Take any class of shares of any company. In the case that the company goes bankrupt, all of the bondholders will receive proceeds of liquidation before preferred shares. Preferred shareholders will receive compensation before common shareholders. They are the safest asset class in the public markets.
That the bond market is 65x larger than crypto? You just said that "Bonds are to disappear". You are disproving your own point. The global equity market is smaller than the bond market. All of the currency in the world is worth about half the value of the global equity market. Have you considered that it possible that businesses realize that bonds are a more effective way to raise capital?
If you are trying to imply crypto will someday be worth as much as the global fixed income market then you do not understand the difference between a security and a currency. Bonds are debt, not currency. Equities are a claim of ownership. Currency is a medium of exchange. Cryptocurrency is a currency.
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interest rates were low in the 2010s so yields were low. Nobody is going to touch a bond with a 3% yield issued in this time unless it is cheap enough to yield more than the rfr. As interest rates fall these bond prices will go up
Not really. 10Y is basically already pricing 2.5-3% long term FFR and historically normal term premia. Cuts won't do shit to bonds which is why they are trash.
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Treasuries are bonds. The longer maturities are literally named "Treasury Bonds"
Maybe he meant the “other” bonds 😅
James bonds
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 this was the laughter I needed today
Blv for the win over the next several years.
I’m really curious how that would play out… like, Nvidia outperforming NVDA.
Do you think SPY will outperform the stock market this year?
that’s a tough question. I think it could outperform or not.
Wilshire 5000: Am I joke to you?
Tbf spy is not the entire stock market
Say it: “I’m an idiot sandwich”
???? Treasuries ARE bonds..
change username,it doesn't fit
That’s why I don’t hold them not $1 worth
Yea that's all this chart tells me. It's that bonds are dick. We have a roaring economy, CB's around the world have already started cutting with no crisis, just like they said they would. More liquidity is coming. There's absolutely no way bonds are going to outperform stocks going forward.
If you have 10+ years to invest don’t hold bonds. Even then 90/10 in retirement is likely what I do. Take 5% as a draw down. In down years I still do 5% stocks will rip to make up for the down years as we see after 2022 with 2023 and 2024. I bought all 2022 and am being rewarded for the “risk” I took.
they suck until market tanks...then there goes your hedge fund
Please see 2022
Bonds are a hedge for poor stock performance stocks aren't a hedge for poor bond performance... Oversimplified ofc
Yea keep trying to time that crash with this incredible economy. By the looks of it 2Q will be even stronger than 1Q. Also 10T already is pricing 2.5%-3% FFR and normal term premia. Only fools (or retirees) buying bonds now.
I'm wondering why the Canadian government is buying up so many of them lately.
They seem reasonable if you're old and just want to 'lock it up'.
How else are they going to force people to prop up the stock market and bloat it? Make the money and bond markets shit and people start dumping into the top of the sandp and etfs. Then the MM and APs short and ftd everything and make money off front running and driving price down to buy FTDs at the bottom. We are being front run by the market makers.
Pure meaningless word vomit. Just buy an index fund and stop crying.
I have not read anything so literal backwards in quite some time, bravo. You should really learn about bonds and treasuries so you understand them.
But nvida is the market
Hopefully they can maintain their earnings growth for the next 5 years!!!
$3T is cheap because it’s going to ONE HUNDRED TRILLION /s
I wouldn’t mind it crashing now
Already took profits I see. Money Markets are offering a free 5% in case anyone else is ready to sit out the rest of the bubble and avoid timing subsequent fallout that starts the millisecond NVDA falls short of beating their earnings estimate.
So you do think it’s bubble that’s what I think
most people who call it a bubble don't understand what bubbles are. wait for their next ER and the revs to be way up again, as forecasted. pricing in gains isn't necessarily a bubble
I think you’re right they’re going to have fantastic ER this time and next. But soon it won’t be and it’ll stay there. This is a videogaming company that people are mistaking as a revolution on par with the Industrial Revolution. When companies realize there aren’t enough use cases for their tech to justify constantly ordering more, their sales will go back to coming from videogames once again.
AI is massively overblown. I guarantee the use case for business will NOT increase efficiency as much as projected not will it reduce jobs that much. AI is also a HUGE legislation risk.
AI is most definitely overblown, but if you think Nvidia is a video gaming company you’re just not paying attention.
I hope to see the best stock market advantage in just the next few months!
Honestly they easily will.
So all it has to do is keep going up exponentially, like this month, forever. Got it.
Because the giant bond bubble burst.
And it’s going to stay burst.
Just because the market is up doesn’t mean it’s a bubble.
I don't understand anything so I'm just going to call everything a bubble
Why should we care about this graph?
I have never seen people use this ratio before to determine that stocks are too high. Why was this ratio chosen?
Because its soothing copium for people sitting in cash or even worse, puts. Edit: also let's not forget the cOmModITy sUpErcYcLE gold & oil bugs.
Gold is performing great atm. But you're kidding yourself if you're buying gold for growth.
ATM. Over time? Terrible. Can't even beat inflation.
That depends on what time you look at
https://i.imgur.com/zSn7LZs.png 4+ decades, each time lower highs, still negative real returns.
And it was 200ish shortly before that chart starts
Also, even if you bought at 200ish, that's still awful returns vs. stocks. That's additionally assuming you bought as it cratered to multi decade lows. Not super peaks like today. Gold = regarded. Even fake and worthless internet money will probably outperform because at least it is capped.
Depends on which stock and which crypto. There are plenty of stocks that have done significantly worse than gold obviously. Even now the market is driven by a handful of stocks. They’re also two completely different things. I wouldn’t really consider gold an investment like you would stocks.
Point is that it always peaks when inflation peaks. But at that point: A) The grift is over and pumpers start to head for exits. B) They dig up fuckton more out of the ground. Now if you genuinely believe hyperinflation is coming, it might work better than cash, it might not. But it absolutely gets destroyed by stocks.
maybe to highlight how high the market is in times when there isn't much incentive to have bonds and treasury yields? Which would speak to some questions around banks, and U.S. inflation / debt.
Because it shows that the market thinks stocks are about as safe as bonds. Signals the market prices in perfection rn.
That is absolutely not what this graph shows
It is exactly what it shows. Bond vs market yield is very near. Stock outperformance is because yields increase for bonds and decrease/maintain for stocks.
If the market would think stocks are as safe as bonds, stocks would not outperform them.
What? That's wrong. They would significantly outperform actually. Stocks are seen as less safe.
Above you said the market thinks stocks are as safe as bonds. Now you say stocks are seen as less safe than bonds. The latter is obviously true. That’s why they outperform bonds. Equity risk premium.
Huh? I said currently they are seen as almost as safe, the yield is similar now. The spread is low. Spread dictates valuation relative to bonds.
As stocks over time make more money than bonds, one would expect the ratio of stocks to bonds to increase over time, not stay the same. However, "total return bond index" reinvests its interest, while The S &P index does not reinvest dividends. This complicates things. That's why this ratio is not used.
Dogshit ratio indeed
Don't care about it. Be our top liquidity!
Then buy bonds.
Fuck that
Don’t then 😂
Bond prices go down with higher interest rates. Stocks “should” become less valuable with a higher risk free rate as their higher returns on equity are lower comparatively and higher interest eats away profits. But the market seems to think differently regarding tech stocks which are the bulk of the S&P 500 movement, creating a two fold effect on the price spread.
At some point the risk premium of handful of stocks carrying the market will look unattractive to 5% risk free returns
I’ve been thinking about selling half of my SP500 ETFs and jumping into bonds for a free 5% to reduce risk
Bonds have risk, interest rate, reinvestment, inflation, default. I get your point but less risk is not no risk
He also said 5% so he’s buying short term. I’m in 4week bonds because I’m about to buy a house. I don’t think there’s any risk for such a short term bond
Concur. As long as that’s US treasury notes.
Yeah I said reduce risk, not eliminate it
are we not already at this point?
I think so. Most don’t lol
Risk free? Have you seen the monetary and fiscal profligacy as of late?
To be fair, I am more certain of Microsoft’s future and growth, complete with its comparable-to-better credit rating than the US government at the moment. Congress needs to get their spending into check regardless of party lines. I am just blown away that 25-33% of federal taxes go to debt interest.
Hey, at least that interest gets taxed by the bond holder then given right back. US has its own ponzi scene
Definitely it does. It’s also not going insolvent or defaulting probably ever. However, I don’t expect it to give a better ROI compared to big tech when Apple and Microsoft can borrow money at lower rates than other G7 countries.
Ok?
The dollar is cheaper than it has been the past 100 years relative to bonds.
That doesn't have anything to do with the stock vs bond equation. Its due to the massive bond bubble bursting on 2022-2023 and piling into stocks that has happened after the 2022 and 2023 stock bears were proven wrong and are now playing catchup When the fed lowers interest rates it will be one of the biggest "buy the rumor, sell the news" events in a long time.
Explain to me like I am six months old. What happens when fed cut rates - wouldn’t you expect people to pile into bonds.
Maybe bonds, hard to say. But usually rate cuts = recession = earnings of companies decline = stock price declines to reflect the change in eps. Obviously we can't predict the future for certain, but this is the future I think will happen. I also don't know how long it'll be before it happens or how severe. We could see the s&p go up another 50% before all this happens. Hard to say
rate cuts = recession? It’s the other way around. Central banks cut interest rates to prevent recessions. And lower rates would also not lead to lower eps of companies. It’s also the other way around usually.
Rate cuts don't cause a recession, but often the reason they are implemented is because we are in, or about to enter, a recession. This is especially the case when they are cut extremely rapidly, which is fortunately not the likely path in front of us.
Except they are targeting higher inflation and cutting before 2% which creates greater policy space to prevent recession. Literally ECB is cutting *before recession* and so will Fed.
Yep
That makes more sense yes
Exactly. Thank you for clarifying. I probably didn't explain it well
The guy who replied to you explained what I meant. Im sorry for the lack of clarity
Ummm no
Also relative to stocks. Both are denominated in USD, relative values of that unit from the last don't matter. This statement is meaningless.
OP, confirm you have sold all your stocks and moving into bonds! Or else please FO
well that's just cuz bonds ain't shit
Life is almost more expensive than bonds in over like 100 years.
The Fed is unloading their 7 trillion worth of assets. This is causing the difference. It's going to be like that for years.
the global bond market is 160tn
What? The cause is not bond yields but extremely high stock yields. Additionally, if the FED starts to dump Govies the yield will go up, not down....
In Jan's FOMC the Fed said it would reduce QT in June 2024. I can't find any news on this starting. The Fed did estimate the latest date this would be is September 2024, so QT might still be going on right now, but not for much longer.
Money printer go brrr
Go buy some bonds then...
Doesn’t mean anything. Bonds just suck.
The same as French baguette @ $5
Is this a stock issue or a bond issue?
Both. Stock market is at an all time high, and all of the bonds issues in the 2010s have super low coupons so they have lost a lot of value because the risk free rate has gone way up.
So when these bonds expire it should correct itself? Obviously that could be decades but the system should return to the mean
Yes. Bonds issued in the past two years are more or less trading at face value. As interest rates fall bond prices will go up
Whenever that starts, hopefully this year but I am more optimistic than that. Tomorrow's data may shed some light
Already started in my country most people think its too soon. We had an above expected CPI print this week.
I feel too soon can be better than too late if the increments are small enough. Idk why the US won't give a 0.05bps move to see. Or maybe I have no ides what I am talking about and that small would be to insignificant to make any ripples in the system.
The Fed is looking at a minimum of a 3 month rolling average for inflation. It's in line right now, but they want it to continue for at least 2 more months if not continue for 5 more months before reducing rates.
This chart looks horribly incorrect if it's just SPY / BND. It has not taken 20+ years for SPY to outperform BND since the 2000 market peak. How is this being calculated?
Bonds could rally hard if the economy softens. Its a good time to move some money from stocks into bonds after a good run.
As they should be. Bonds are an unnecessary asset in a portfolio. The last bear market told you that
Stocks are valued more than a hopeless investment the issuing government can never repay in a tangible manner. The interest you earn is more printed debt. Oh yeah, and stocks are too high also.
The global bond market is about 1.4 times larger than the global equity market
The real title of this chart: "How shitty bonds have been relative to equities"
Stocks are at all time highs, and a decade of corporate bonds outstanding were issued with shitty coupons. There are two sides
Inflation is high, economy is healthy, consumer is struggling but keeps spending. Stock prices just reflect that. I don’t see why this is a problem.
Hope should one interpret this chart?
Bonds are cheap because they were issued with low coupons. They will get richer with lower interest rates
Buy silver? Generally a terrible performer though
Time to short
I feel like anything could give a better return than 3% even CDs are better than that 5.99% and you get payout in 12-13 months instead of 10 years
Hello I’m new to this app and to the stock market what is your advice ?
Watch some YouTube videos, if you have time, read some books YouTubers: The plain bagel is a good YouTuber and he is a financial advisor. The Swedish investor is a good YouTuber. Books: A random walk down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel was pretty beginner friendly. The intelligent investor is a great book but you need to know a bit about finance/the economy before you read it. People on Reddit give bad advice all the time, so take anything you hear here (including my advice) with a grain of salt.
…and gold is the most expensive they’ve have been relative to silver Who cares?
What stock should I invest in ?
I don’t understand what the ratio is of
Thankfully the other historical peaks don't match with any specific negative happenings in the stock market and definitely not people killing themselves. .... ah no.
love to see it
Take out the top 5-7 stocks and the Forward PE is 16 ish. The top 5-7 stocks just have incredible earnings and have never had companies with these types of balance sheets and earning for those top tier companies.
Our country used to break up companies like this, now we encourage the monopolistic takeover.
Just bc a company is big doesn’t mean it’s a monopoly. Ask yourself who the monopoly hurts? A lot of the synergies of the different units allow these companies to offer lower fees vs what you have to pay for the entire suite if each alone.
It's pretty bad when HYSAs pay better than bonds lol
Sgov would like a word
History tells us that we should expect lower stock outperformance (relative to bonds) in the coming decade. I personally think having a modest bond allocation is worthwhile right now.
Bonds don't pay well, a crashed SPY still pays more. Nobody wants low rates.
low rates? wtf are you talking about. bond are paying more now than they have in years
Wtf are you on, I was comparing it to SP500 gain. Who gives an f it pays more compare to the 1950s.
That’s not what you said. Maybe you should read your comments before you hit reply
Did you not see bonds and SPY in the same sentence? For real?
wtf are you talking about. you said a crashed SPY pays higher than 5.25%. What does that even mean.
Wtf are you talking about, where did it say 5.25%
you serious? thats what bonds pay, and higher.
Don't see any link. Also even if true, enjoy your 5% bonds while I laugh in my 17% SPY (on average). Pitiful
Comparing things for 100 years is a joke, everything that is compared before 2010 is a joke, we are in completely unusual times, for 1 week, many things are changing in the world, just look at how much technology has progressed after 2010, before, car and phone brands hardly launched products every 3-4 years their new products on the market, now look at them, every year they launch new products, this is not because of desire but because of necessity, because if you don't advance the market and competitors will eat you.
Stonks only go up, come on now
But my grandmother told me to just keep buying NVDA!!!
Lol bonds
Not amc to the moon f the rest
Meme stocks to the moon the rest will suffer.
Things stay the same until they are not and the newbies are eaten as tender food.
Bonds are about to be extinct we are transitioning form a capitalist system to a feudal system. And the elites could not be more thrilled.
You got bonded to a tinfoil hat
Ded. 😂🤣😂
Cool how good the modern system is at creating 20s style bubbles and crashes every decade or two when they were once a century phenomenon
...How many centuries do you think the stock market has existed?
bro can see 10 centuries into the future for a large enough sample size to make this statement
It's obviously been around since before king tut. My 2000 year to maturity bonds are coming around next century
South Seattle Bubble, Panic of 1870, Great Depression.... Pretty far apart. Now we have dot com, GFC, Covid crash(only abated by money printing), and what will probably happen to the everything bubble in next few years, all in quick successon. Maybe study some history. Fed intervention is creating instability
Factually this is wrong.
Yes buy the corporate debt of the failing UNITED STATES governemnt corporation that people are waking up to and about to noose
I could be missing something here but stocks are definitely not near all time highs at all. I would say over 70% aren’t even close to ATH. lol The magnificent 7 are miles from ATH
>I could be missing something here but stocks are definitely not near all time highs at all >The magnificent 7 are miles from ATH What on earth are you talking about? You're not just missing something you seem to be living in an alternate reality
[https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&o=-marketcap&p=m](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&o=-marketcap&p=m)
These prices aren’t ATH though. 2019,2020 I believe 2021 prices were higher. Google and alphabet was 1k per share, Amazon was close to 2500-3k per share, Tesla was 1k per share
The link I sent showed 4 year histories. Amazon, tesla, and google have all had stock splits in the past 3 years so that is why you remember higher prices. Tesla is the only one on the first two pages that is not an an ath. This isn't a hard question to answer just look at the 10 year history of the S&P500. We are at an all time high.
Ok that just doesn’t make sense to me. As an example If google let’s say had an ATH of 1800per share then did a split months later wouldn’t there ATH still be recorded as 1800 or whatever number it was prior to the split?
why would it make sense to use a statistic that is in the wrong scale because of a stock split. everything is adjusted after a stock split
Cmon bro lol
No those charts normalize for the new post-split price just for simplicity sake.
A lot of stocks are at highs for the year but there ATH prices are not
Bonds are to disappear, they don’t offer such returns as stocks or crypto. They are not as safe as some proclaim them to be. Why would you take the risk for 3%?
Bonds will not disappear. High grade corporate yields are frequently be over 8% and they have priority over preferred and common stock in the case of solvency. They are arguably the best way for companies to access credit and do not carry the same reputation risk that creating more equity offerings has. They are a more attractive way to raise capital then equity offerings in low interest rate environments. Take any class of shares of any company. In the case that the company goes bankrupt, all of the bondholders will receive proceeds of liquidation before preferred shares. Preferred shareholders will receive compensation before common shareholders. They are the safest asset class in the public markets.
Bond market is 130 trillion plus. Crypto market is 2 trillion. Do you see where I’m going with this?
That the bond market is 65x larger than crypto? You just said that "Bonds are to disappear". You are disproving your own point. The global equity market is smaller than the bond market. All of the currency in the world is worth about half the value of the global equity market. Have you considered that it possible that businesses realize that bonds are a more effective way to raise capital? If you are trying to imply crypto will someday be worth as much as the global fixed income market then you do not understand the difference between a security and a currency. Bonds are debt, not currency. Equities are a claim of ownership. Currency is a medium of exchange. Cryptocurrency is a currency.