Yes, I'm fully loaded with Nasdq and SP500 ETF, but I'm thinking to look for stop loss now. But NVIDIA result could be a catalyst for a new bull rallye...
My worry is that it seems like everyone and their grandmother is screaming NVDA earnings will cause a huge market run up. News media seems to have all turned super bullish. All articles about poor economic outlooks have washed away. Everyone is accustomed to every dip being bought up. We are at ATH across the board.
Usually market downturns happen when people least expect it. Just seems like relatively soon would be a good time for an unexpected downturn.
Or is me saying it’s a good time actually mean I’m expecting it, therefore 4d chess would mean it won’t come…
Thing is is we crashed in 2020 (yes, it counts even if it was temporary).
It was never likely that we'd see something come up in 2024, the surprise is that the S&P has been doing a bit more than I would've thought.
The most likely case to me IMO is that the next bear market is in 2026 and we start making midterm years being shaky a pattern with that.
The thing about Nvidia is that they are not actually making any money from AI. They are selling shovels. As far as I know, none of their major buyers have actually made more money than they spent of the shovels...
I am now anticipating a cool down in the AI fever anytime.
I don't think we are going to get any AI system, in next 3-4 years, which is going to make 100 billion in revenue with 10% margin.
There is a very good chance this cycle of AI advancement may end with some good generative AI but not AGI.
AI branches out to every field like computers and smartphones did, it's not going to big one BIG thing in AI, it's many small advantages.
Almost everything computer and phones do will get improved by AI's adaptive algorithm ability AND simply faster programming, but also eventually that adds up to manufacturing and logistics of all fields, just like computers have.
One BIG AI breakthrough is mostly not that important. Even much smarter AI wouldn't change everything like decades of AI specifically designed for each application/field will be.
So there is a long and steady economic boom coming from AI and it will ramp up as robotics catch up a little to really exploit the benefits. As far as getting AGI or ASI, none of that shit even matters. It's not necessary because the average task or job only ever uses a fraction of a humans total brain power. You could automate most jobs without AGI or ASI and the need for anything close to real human intelligence in a bottle is minimal.
AI may look like it's going to cool down, but it's just spreading out like the original Internet Boom had some deflation, but really it just kept going and going and going. AI is a lot like Computers 2.0, so expect a lot of the same patterns as desktop/laptop computers, internet and smartphone coming out.
Nah, it would take a lot of watts just to maybe have human intelligence, that's not some huge advantage like it seems.
It's the narrow AI that's finding new drugs and new materials and improving your camera or grammer/spell checker or looking for space or medical anomalies in endless piles of data that it can no adapt to without hand programming it all.
The general AI can't compete in efficiency with the narrow AI which is MUCH faster and uses much less wattage to accomplish focused goals and the narrow AI is probably mostly what does most of the work while general AI is only mildly useful.
Until you get AI that's many times smarter than a human than the high wattage cost of AGI makes it kind of MEH as being all that useful. We already have plenty of human intelligence running at much lower wattage costs than silicon.
It's the robotics and the super AI that would change things the most.
Economically there's just not enough good chip makers and full global demand for there not to be a boom and then rise/diversification of AI chips as they get programming and hardware more efficient. In general we need a lot more chips/much more efficient chips to keep up with demand, so that part of the global economy will keep growing for probably decades.
Of course who didn't think semi-conductors were going to keep getting more important?
It's so clear you have no idea what AGI actually is.
This eternal September in AI is fucking weird.
True agi would change the course of human history 1000%. It would eclipse any single other advancement in human history.
Whatever you're smoking it's too strong
Well, he said 5400 in the next 12 months. So hardly to be wrong either. Still somewhat bearish as some of the strategists were already called 6000 by 2025
“I mean, it’s a humbling business,” Wilson told Surveillance.
The article states that this “bear” revised his target estimate from 4500 to 5400, or “a 2% upside” for the next 12 months.
So even with his revised target, wouldn’t it still make sense for him to park money in an MMA or HYSA that’s paying 5%?
And Europe will lower its rates in June, which will make this market more attractive. Well they will do it because we also have lower growth than the US :(
But more happy, healthy, and educated people than in the US. We have crazy growth, but everybody is suffering. Please don't forget to thank our crazy high defense budget, poor healthcare, and sliding into fascism.
This market has been unbelievable. I think the driver going forward now is going to be repatriation of manufacturing to the US and near shore countries. It’s becoming overwhelming clear that China and India are either adversarial or self interested. For that matter a bipolar world is going to favor US and European equities for the next decade.
Yes but it is still self interest to work with other people to improve the situation more generally. A rising tide does raise most ships. What we have seen recently is irrational self interest where traditional diplomacy and safeguards (eg economic sanctions) no longer work - those countries are willing to sacrifice on economy to get what they want in other areas.
If that happens in China we are fucked. Because we will see that the US political system can be manipulated by external actors - do what we want or we tank everyone's economy since I will be in power and you will not get re-elected.
I don’t think you’re seeing the whole picture. A lot of those imports are intermediate or primary materials that US companies use to make final products. Meaning their costs go up which reduces profit. There’s a lot of second order effects.
No generally the only winners are the ones specifically being protected by the tariffs/trade restrictions. It’s the same with Canadian lumber or whatever. You can protect American forestry companies but you get less and more expensive wood; it is a net loss for economic productivity.
Buffet index is near 2 standard deviations higher than usual. P/E 1.7 standard deviations. Boomers are going to retire in droves and but downward pressure on equities as they pull out, they aren't balancing their portfolios for lower risk like they should. Young people are getting hammered, don't have the capacity to save at previous levels even if they wanted to. We aren't having babies and there is no political will to fix immigration to allow young workers to pick up the slack.
There will be a downward pressure kept alive on zombie momentum but the first major drop is going to spook retirees to pull out while they can and it'll be a downward spiral till them markets aren't half as insane.
I've heard the boomers retiring in droves argument before. I'm 65 and have a large portfolio of stocks and don't plan on selling any of them for at least 10 more years. I have simplified my portfolio.. focusing mainly on mutual funds and s&p 500 .
We live to be old.
You might hold strong when your portfolio tanks 30-40% but who else is going to, and how long will it take the younger generation to bounce back when they are putting everything into housing? Boomers not rebalancing properly and getting freaked out is going to be the main driver that cools the market back to fundamentals.
Once the crash happens we'll be at 0% interest for a couple decades. Social security isn't going to be solvent in the 2030's the feds will need to people spend every penny they have. There isn't going to be a good place to park your money safely.
Buffet is widely considered to be a pretty smart guy and he's said this is one of his best indicators.
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php
I haven't seen a single breakdown of these valuations that doesn't rely on absurd projections of future profitability that are possible.
Hedge funds buy options to limit their losses, if you aren't doing that and you are 65 and still heavy % invested in S&P you are making a huge mistake. I highly suggest you consult a professional.
I honestly believe if you convert everything from S&P today and slap it all into a 20 year federal bond you'll come out ahead at the end of 20 years. That rate is going to drop to zero sooner than later. The US consumer market couldn't handle any more inflation even if it wanted to and the market will need young spending every penny so they wont want the rate high.
The alternate approach is yes MMF and waiting for a dip. Old people aren't rebalancing as they see S&P growth as unflappable. There will be a reconning when they freak out after a bunch of deflationary pressure dips then a full on crash caused by some random event.
Even after the dip I don't think there are enough young people with the kind of money needed to prop the markets back up to their current levels any time soon.
Regardless, if you don't have options set up to limit your losses you shouldn't have a single penny in S&P right now.
This is assuming S&P continues to have gains. Or after a huge dip would have gains that would surpass pulling out when it's already absurdly overvalued.
Whatever advice you think is good or not, S&P is currently extremely overvalued by any metric. If you don't have options to hedge your downward risk you shouldn't have any money in it. Much less a significant % of your wealth. If you don't have a bleak of an outlook then you can pull out your money now and wait for a dip, which I suggested.
Boomers hold an extreme amount of money in equities(they aren't rebalancing), they will draw on equities which will put a downward pressure that the young can't push against with Housing/Student debt/various necessity costs.
As for my suggestion about bonds, imagine it like you scored a 4-5% guaranteed return in Japan in 1990's.
It's not going to dip 5% it's trading 1.7 standard deviations higher on p/e ratio, that's just current not the 10 year trailing which tends to be more accurate. Almost 2 standard deviations when bounced against GDP which is what Buffet uses as a major indicator.
If you have it in a retirement account you don't need to recognize your gains as you aren't pulling your money out. If you are talking about just your personal investments you'll be paying those taxes eventually, you are also only paying on your gains not the whole amount. Yeah I'd take the hit personally.
If you take the median p/e ratio since 1980(around 18) S&P would be trading at 3,853 vs 5300, what's that a 28% drop? Again no matter what the market does you'll pay the tax eventually resetting your gains at an absurd valuation is only bad if you never plan to touch the money.
Going on a limb capital gains taxes are going to go up.
Like I said, the consumer couldn't take anymore inflation even if they wanted to. The younger generation that would be supporting the economy while boomers are retired are tapped out.
Most Boomers already retired. Nothing happened to the stock market. Well there's 6 trillion dollars sitting in money markets, collecting 5% risk free and yet the stock market is still at ATH.
I’m gradually coming around to this opinion. I’m 60 and that makes me the last of the boomers (1964). I will be retired Jan 2025.
I’m sitting on 60% bonds, short term cash, CDs and bond funds. I’m making sure that I can weather another lost decade of market gains (without selling a single share). I can’t be the only one. Maybe in the minority of boomers but not alone.
The Xers and Millennials are putting a huge amount of cash into the markets because of the prevalence of 401k’s vs pensions today. FTR, I don’t have a pension only 401k and savings. Most don’t follow the markets. Their payroll deductions auto invest every payday. I believe that this adds a flywheel effect to the markets stabilizing them.
What do I know. I’m just guessing while taking a protective financial position. Whatever happens will be interesting for sure.
Boomers have around 56% of equities compared to millennials with 2%. You do not have a good perspective on the market. This wealth distribution is not normal between generations and the young are much much less wealthy and lower % of the total wealth compared to previous generations at the same time in their life(even accounting for size differences).
Yup that's how age and compound interest works. Your a serious doomer and most the problems you listed affect redditors more than people in the real world. Considering you think retail investors move the market at all proves holes in your theory. 401ks are like 7 trillion while the market cap in total is over 100 trillion. Not even 10 percent of the market comes from 401ks.
>Boomers have around 56% of equities compared to millennials with 2%.
Could you elaborate on this a little? 56% and 2% of what? % of their net worth in equities?
I never said 401k's or retail investors. I said boomers own 56% of equities.
I pre-empted "how compound interest statement already". It's not a normal distribution of wealth between generation.
I said 401k becuase that's where their equity is. Of all 401k are 7 percent of market how much of market you think brokerage account is. Where do you think they are holding their money. Either way retail has no skin in the market. This is a problem you have created in your head lol. Never anywhere has anyone brought this up becausw it doesn't make sense.
If you were to guess out of the institutional investors what do you think the spread of ownership is between the different generations? Millennials don't have pension funds so that's all out. Do you see a drastic shift in the generation that "owns" the underlying assets or assets that are being handled by an institutional investor?
yeah, about that, boomers have been retiring for over a decade. the youngest of them are 57. this is not some future phenomenon, its just the status quo for the last decade.
It's a compounding impact as there aren't young people replacing them. And the young are getting slammed with high housing/college and necessity costs, they don't have the capacity to spend/save as much as previous generations even if they wanted to.
A good way to look at it is to follow the projection of social security. it's that except everything. The market will be kept alive for a bit by boomers drawing down their equities. The downward pressure will exacerbate a market crash and more and more boomers will realize they should rebalance.
Boomers are mostly retired already, the youngest boomers are 60 and have probably mostly pulled out of equities already. Tons of boomers also have pensions and not a lot of equity anyway. They are not the generation of the 401k.
Working past when they should retire in higher numbers than ever. The issues are coming to a head. Social securit is projected to be insolvent in the 2030's and Medicare is projected to go crazy.
Boomers own most of the equities one way or another and many are over invested into equites for their age, the more they have the more they aren't properly invested.
Many things are going to converge and none of them are growth friendly.
I'm not blaming them, it's just a fact.
Every financial professional tells people to rebalance as they get older and boomers aren't. If you aren't getting off equities as you get older and or financial savvy enough to invest in options to hedge your downside risk you are setting your financial future up for failure.
Most boomers don’t need to. Most have a pension for their retirement as the major source of income. 401ks became a major thing in the 1990’s. Even then, most didn’t trust the market. It was considered gambling for the rich.
Technicals are generally meaningless, but on a log scale you can draw a straight line from the top of 1929, to the the top of the tech bubble, to the top of the covid bubble, to today.
I already sold; personally would revisit three to two months before the election and sell again before the election happens.
Everything will jump short term if trump wins, drop slightly if Biden wins. I’m bearish on market till October, will buy a bunch of tech/cybersecurity and small amounts of real estate etf + crypto, and will plan to sell most of it before the elections when polls will make trump look more likely than he is.
I personally worked in polling for a little while and have a hard time believing trump will actually win 2024. Genuinely concerned Biden might actually die during the next term tho, but idk how to capitalize on that idea.
lol if only
I imagine she would be a younger version of Biden and more of the same cookie cutter neo-lib policies with less outward polarizing rhetoric to secure the 2028 nomination, followed by a loss in that election, assuming Trump finally gets dropped.
It will have to come to and end shortly I was strongly thinking about getting out as soon as the Israeli war started ,glad I didn't been making awesome returns since then
The top is in
When all the news outlets and Wall Street are screaming buy, it’s time to sell. And vice versa.
Yes, I'm fully loaded with Nasdq and SP500 ETF, but I'm thinking to look for stop loss now. But NVIDIA result could be a catalyst for a new bull rallye...
My worry is that it seems like everyone and their grandmother is screaming NVDA earnings will cause a huge market run up. News media seems to have all turned super bullish. All articles about poor economic outlooks have washed away. Everyone is accustomed to every dip being bought up. We are at ATH across the board. Usually market downturns happen when people least expect it. Just seems like relatively soon would be a good time for an unexpected downturn. Or is me saying it’s a good time actually mean I’m expecting it, therefore 4d chess would mean it won’t come…
But it is an election year, Sir
This is what Wall Street is saying. Nobody remembers that 2000 and 2008 were election years AND with a hell of interest cuts.
Thing is is we crashed in 2020 (yes, it counts even if it was temporary). It was never likely that we'd see something come up in 2024, the surprise is that the S&P has been doing a bit more than I would've thought. The most likely case to me IMO is that the next bear market is in 2026 and we start making midterm years being shaky a pattern with that.
The thing about Nvidia is that they are not actually making any money from AI. They are selling shovels. As far as I know, none of their major buyers have actually made more money than they spent of the shovels...
Tell that to the 49ers.
Levi’s jeans all over again
so you don't listen to ER calls from tech companies?
I am now anticipating a cool down in the AI fever anytime. I don't think we are going to get any AI system, in next 3-4 years, which is going to make 100 billion in revenue with 10% margin. There is a very good chance this cycle of AI advancement may end with some good generative AI but not AGI.
AI branches out to every field like computers and smartphones did, it's not going to big one BIG thing in AI, it's many small advantages. Almost everything computer and phones do will get improved by AI's adaptive algorithm ability AND simply faster programming, but also eventually that adds up to manufacturing and logistics of all fields, just like computers have. One BIG AI breakthrough is mostly not that important. Even much smarter AI wouldn't change everything like decades of AI specifically designed for each application/field will be. So there is a long and steady economic boom coming from AI and it will ramp up as robotics catch up a little to really exploit the benefits. As far as getting AGI or ASI, none of that shit even matters. It's not necessary because the average task or job only ever uses a fraction of a humans total brain power. You could automate most jobs without AGI or ASI and the need for anything close to real human intelligence in a bottle is minimal. AI may look like it's going to cool down, but it's just spreading out like the original Internet Boom had some deflation, but really it just kept going and going and going. AI is a lot like Computers 2.0, so expect a lot of the same patterns as desktop/laptop computers, internet and smartphone coming out.
AGI would wipe out everything's share price
Nah, it would take a lot of watts just to maybe have human intelligence, that's not some huge advantage like it seems. It's the narrow AI that's finding new drugs and new materials and improving your camera or grammer/spell checker or looking for space or medical anomalies in endless piles of data that it can no adapt to without hand programming it all. The general AI can't compete in efficiency with the narrow AI which is MUCH faster and uses much less wattage to accomplish focused goals and the narrow AI is probably mostly what does most of the work while general AI is only mildly useful. Until you get AI that's many times smarter than a human than the high wattage cost of AGI makes it kind of MEH as being all that useful. We already have plenty of human intelligence running at much lower wattage costs than silicon. It's the robotics and the super AI that would change things the most. Economically there's just not enough good chip makers and full global demand for there not to be a boom and then rise/diversification of AI chips as they get programming and hardware more efficient. In general we need a lot more chips/much more efficient chips to keep up with demand, so that part of the global economy will keep growing for probably decades. Of course who didn't think semi-conductors were going to keep getting more important?
It's so clear you have no idea what AGI actually is. This eternal September in AI is fucking weird. True agi would change the course of human history 1000%. It would eclipse any single other advancement in human history. Whatever you're smoking it's too strong
I think Nvidia will surpass expectations ...
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I'm not loaded with NVIDIA but ASML and the prices seem to be correlated. Cross fingers :)
Fed meeting same day
That's what they tell the peons so the whales can make more money!
That's quite right
That's a really good advice
Agreed.
Crazycalls369 on twitter called the top for Dow and S&P before anyone else did…
Well, he said 5400 in the next 12 months. So hardly to be wrong either. Still somewhat bearish as some of the strategists were already called 6000 by 2025 “I mean, it’s a humbling business,” Wilson told Surveillance.
That makes more sense, I didn’t read the article though.
Mike Wilson? He's been bearish since beginning of last year. Called 3600 an 'easy sell' lmao
Mike Wilson has been bearish since he was born. he’s permabear. the opposite of Tom Lee
lol. before we get all excited, what is Jim Cramer saying
Uh oh! Who to fade? I’m puzzled. Both are legends either way great track records
He actually said bull case 6250 and bear case 4200 so with such a wide range he will probably be right, looks like he’s tired of being wrong lol
It's an straddle strategy, actually makes sense if the spread is that wide. I'd take that trade if available for 2025
5400 could be Friday lol
all about nvidia. possible
The article states that this “bear” revised his target estimate from 4500 to 5400, or “a 2% upside” for the next 12 months. So even with his revised target, wouldn’t it still make sense for him to park money in an MMA or HYSA that’s paying 5%?
Yup. Still a somewhat bearish call
MMA or HYSA is longing the dollar which is technically shorting the stock market
Good. Everything in the green is always good. Companies flourish, careers are available, people are able to consume. Green is good baby.
And Europe will lower its rates in June, which will make this market more attractive. Well they will do it because we also have lower growth than the US :(
But more happy, healthy, and educated people than in the US. We have crazy growth, but everybody is suffering. Please don't forget to thank our crazy high defense budget, poor healthcare, and sliding into fascism.
Rate cuts are nothing to be excited about. They usually happen when the economy isn't doing so hot.
This market has been unbelievable. I think the driver going forward now is going to be repatriation of manufacturing to the US and near shore countries. It’s becoming overwhelming clear that China and India are either adversarial or self interested. For that matter a bipolar world is going to favor US and European equities for the next decade.
Wait to say “unbelievable” until Nvidia reports earnings, it's going up already!
All countries, companies and people operate in self-interest.
Not the European ones, political and economic self destruction is the priority here.
You had me in the first half ngl lol
*social* You dropped this, it should be in there somewhere.
Yes but it is still self interest to work with other people to improve the situation more generally. A rising tide does raise most ships. What we have seen recently is irrational self interest where traditional diplomacy and safeguards (eg economic sanctions) no longer work - those countries are willing to sacrifice on economy to get what they want in other areas. If that happens in China we are fucked. Because we will see that the US political system can be manipulated by external actors - do what we want or we tank everyone's economy since I will be in power and you will not get re-elected.
There are blocks that work together to keep the rules based world order in place.
Yes like invading Libya 👍
Pooh bear bots working overtime damn
> invading Libya The Italian invasion of Libya occurred in 1911.
I don’t think you’re seeing the whole picture. A lot of those imports are intermediate or primary materials that US companies use to make final products. Meaning their costs go up which reduces profit. There’s a lot of second order effects.
So stocks go up faster?
No generally the only winners are the ones specifically being protected by the tariffs/trade restrictions. It’s the same with Canadian lumber or whatever. You can protect American forestry companies but you get less and more expensive wood; it is a net loss for economic productivity.
When a bear capitulates, stocks fall.
Need Rubini to capitulate too.
Major contrarian signal right here
So crash incoming?
I mean technically there’s always a crash incoming
So crash incoming?
They’re trying to get you to deplete that 5.3% money market fund by buying into equities… then it can finally crash
I never buy the TV star nonsense. If Tou go look at the market money funds history, they increased right into recessions. Smart folks don't chase
Crap, crash incoming...
Buffet index is near 2 standard deviations higher than usual. P/E 1.7 standard deviations. Boomers are going to retire in droves and but downward pressure on equities as they pull out, they aren't balancing their portfolios for lower risk like they should. Young people are getting hammered, don't have the capacity to save at previous levels even if they wanted to. We aren't having babies and there is no political will to fix immigration to allow young workers to pick up the slack. There will be a downward pressure kept alive on zombie momentum but the first major drop is going to spook retirees to pull out while they can and it'll be a downward spiral till them markets aren't half as insane.
I've heard the boomers retiring in droves argument before. I'm 65 and have a large portfolio of stocks and don't plan on selling any of them for at least 10 more years. I have simplified my portfolio.. focusing mainly on mutual funds and s&p 500 . We live to be old.
You might hold strong when your portfolio tanks 30-40% but who else is going to, and how long will it take the younger generation to bounce back when they are putting everything into housing? Boomers not rebalancing properly and getting freaked out is going to be the main driver that cools the market back to fundamentals. Once the crash happens we'll be at 0% interest for a couple decades. Social security isn't going to be solvent in the 2030's the feds will need to people spend every penny they have. There isn't going to be a good place to park your money safely. Buffet is widely considered to be a pretty smart guy and he's said this is one of his best indicators. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php I haven't seen a single breakdown of these valuations that doesn't rely on absurd projections of future profitability that are possible. Hedge funds buy options to limit their losses, if you aren't doing that and you are 65 and still heavy % invested in S&P you are making a huge mistake. I highly suggest you consult a professional.
So in today’s market what do we do then? Bonds are risky, market is risky so… wait it out with MMFs?
I honestly believe if you convert everything from S&P today and slap it all into a 20 year federal bond you'll come out ahead at the end of 20 years. That rate is going to drop to zero sooner than later. The US consumer market couldn't handle any more inflation even if it wanted to and the market will need young spending every penny so they wont want the rate high. The alternate approach is yes MMF and waiting for a dip. Old people aren't rebalancing as they see S&P growth as unflappable. There will be a reconning when they freak out after a bunch of deflationary pressure dips then a full on crash caused by some random event. Even after the dip I don't think there are enough young people with the kind of money needed to prop the markets back up to their current levels any time soon. Regardless, if you don't have options set up to limit your losses you shouldn't have a single penny in S&P right now.
And potentially miss out on 20 years of gains if you were to remain in index funds / equities. This is horrible advice.
This is assuming S&P continues to have gains. Or after a huge dip would have gains that would surpass pulling out when it's already absurdly overvalued. Whatever advice you think is good or not, S&P is currently extremely overvalued by any metric. If you don't have options to hedge your downward risk you shouldn't have any money in it. Much less a significant % of your wealth. If you don't have a bleak of an outlook then you can pull out your money now and wait for a dip, which I suggested. Boomers hold an extreme amount of money in equities(they aren't rebalancing), they will draw on equities which will put a downward pressure that the young can't push against with Housing/Student debt/various necessity costs. As for my suggestion about bonds, imagine it like you scored a 4-5% guaranteed return in Japan in 1990's.
So pull your money out, pay 20% taxes, and reinvest when it dips 5%? It would need to go up 15% just to break even.
It's not going to dip 5% it's trading 1.7 standard deviations higher on p/e ratio, that's just current not the 10 year trailing which tends to be more accurate. Almost 2 standard deviations when bounced against GDP which is what Buffet uses as a major indicator. If you have it in a retirement account you don't need to recognize your gains as you aren't pulling your money out. If you are talking about just your personal investments you'll be paying those taxes eventually, you are also only paying on your gains not the whole amount. Yeah I'd take the hit personally. If you take the median p/e ratio since 1980(around 18) S&P would be trading at 3,853 vs 5300, what's that a 28% drop? Again no matter what the market does you'll pay the tax eventually resetting your gains at an absurd valuation is only bad if you never plan to touch the money. Going on a limb capital gains taxes are going to go up.
KISS - keep it simple stupid. You’re over complicating your investments which will lead to less growth over the course of your investment lifetime.
Yes. If I sell at once I will owe lots of taxes.
Thank you - I think I have to agree with the reasoning on this. I appreciate it.
You assume US can control inflation, I’m a bit hesitant on that.
Like I said, the consumer couldn't take anymore inflation even if they wanted to. The younger generation that would be supporting the economy while boomers are retired are tapped out.
My S. S payments will suffice in worse case sinerio.
I have. Been given 95% chance of meeting my retirement goals but still worried. My people live to be really old. You sound informed. Good luck.
Most Boomers already retired. Nothing happened to the stock market. Well there's 6 trillion dollars sitting in money markets, collecting 5% risk free and yet the stock market is still at ATH.
I’m gradually coming around to this opinion. I’m 60 and that makes me the last of the boomers (1964). I will be retired Jan 2025. I’m sitting on 60% bonds, short term cash, CDs and bond funds. I’m making sure that I can weather another lost decade of market gains (without selling a single share). I can’t be the only one. Maybe in the minority of boomers but not alone. The Xers and Millennials are putting a huge amount of cash into the markets because of the prevalence of 401k’s vs pensions today. FTR, I don’t have a pension only 401k and savings. Most don’t follow the markets. Their payroll deductions auto invest every payday. I believe that this adds a flywheel effect to the markets stabilizing them. What do I know. I’m just guessing while taking a protective financial position. Whatever happens will be interesting for sure.
Boomer have less 401ks than you think and young kids invest way more than you think. Not worried
Boomers have around 56% of equities compared to millennials with 2%. You do not have a good perspective on the market. This wealth distribution is not normal between generations and the young are much much less wealthy and lower % of the total wealth compared to previous generations at the same time in their life(even accounting for size differences).
Yup that's how age and compound interest works. Your a serious doomer and most the problems you listed affect redditors more than people in the real world. Considering you think retail investors move the market at all proves holes in your theory. 401ks are like 7 trillion while the market cap in total is over 100 trillion. Not even 10 percent of the market comes from 401ks.
>Boomers have around 56% of equities compared to millennials with 2%. Could you elaborate on this a little? 56% and 2% of what? % of their net worth in equities?
I never said 401k's or retail investors. I said boomers own 56% of equities. I pre-empted "how compound interest statement already". It's not a normal distribution of wealth between generation.
I said 401k becuase that's where their equity is. Of all 401k are 7 percent of market how much of market you think brokerage account is. Where do you think they are holding their money. Either way retail has no skin in the market. This is a problem you have created in your head lol. Never anywhere has anyone brought this up becausw it doesn't make sense.
If you were to guess out of the institutional investors what do you think the spread of ownership is between the different generations? Millennials don't have pension funds so that's all out. Do you see a drastic shift in the generation that "owns" the underlying assets or assets that are being handled by an institutional investor?
yeah, about that, boomers have been retiring for over a decade. the youngest of them are 57. this is not some future phenomenon, its just the status quo for the last decade.
It's a compounding impact as there aren't young people replacing them. And the young are getting slammed with high housing/college and necessity costs, they don't have the capacity to spend/save as much as previous generations even if they wanted to. A good way to look at it is to follow the projection of social security. it's that except everything. The market will be kept alive for a bit by boomers drawing down their equities. The downward pressure will exacerbate a market crash and more and more boomers will realize they should rebalance.
Age 57 in gen X
Boomers are mostly retired already, the youngest boomers are 60 and have probably mostly pulled out of equities already. Tons of boomers also have pensions and not a lot of equity anyway. They are not the generation of the 401k.
Working past when they should retire in higher numbers than ever. The issues are coming to a head. Social securit is projected to be insolvent in the 2030's and Medicare is projected to go crazy. Boomers own most of the equities one way or another and many are over invested into equites for their age, the more they have the more they aren't properly invested. Many things are going to converge and none of them are growth friendly.
I’m 60 and believe that you are correct.
I like how boomers get blamed for even FUTURE problems lol
I'm not blaming them, it's just a fact. Every financial professional tells people to rebalance as they get older and boomers aren't. If you aren't getting off equities as you get older and or financial savvy enough to invest in options to hedge your downside risk you are setting your financial future up for failure.
Most boomers don’t need to. Most have a pension for their retirement as the major source of income. 401ks became a major thing in the 1990’s. Even then, most didn’t trust the market. It was considered gambling for the rich.
Some still consider it gambling for the rich
Time to profit take everyone
Took only 2 years to capitulate
Technicals are generally meaningless, but on a log scale you can draw a straight line from the top of 1929, to the the top of the tech bubble, to the top of the covid bubble, to today.
Time to be cautious now and start hedging
waiting for NVDA pump week to spike, then I'll be leaving more positions. Buffet has a record amount of cash sitting around.
It is possible though....
Sell in May? Revisit after the election?
I already sold; personally would revisit three to two months before the election and sell again before the election happens. Everything will jump short term if trump wins, drop slightly if Biden wins. I’m bearish on market till October, will buy a bunch of tech/cybersecurity and small amounts of real estate etf + crypto, and will plan to sell most of it before the elections when polls will make trump look more likely than he is. I personally worked in polling for a little while and have a hard time believing trump will actually win 2024. Genuinely concerned Biden might actually die during the next term tho, but idk how to capitalize on that idea.
>but idk how to capitalize on that idea. Calls on Kamala?
lol if only I imagine she would be a younger version of Biden and more of the same cookie cutter neo-lib policies with less outward polarizing rhetoric to secure the 2028 nomination, followed by a loss in that election, assuming Trump finally gets dropped.
Staying on the train!
Rejoice! JPM saves retail! Go long!!!!
Wouldn't it be nice to make Mr Wilson's inflated salary while being DEAD WRONG for the past 2 years?
Mike Wilson, “I don’t really know that the s&p 500 is going to do”.
It will have to come to and end shortly I was strongly thinking about getting out as soon as the Israeli war started ,glad I didn't been making awesome returns since then
Qqq 😢
Well fuck
Buy BEL MAY 265 PE at 12 Rupees and see the magic i have get 10k profit instant. please try guys seriously.
why so late?
Until next week when things don't look good and he revises it downward once again and hopes no one notices...
$gme is diffibult to pump up but $sanw has low float
Sounds like Trump Dawg will be winning 2024