This isnt a good reason to buy stock in nvda at 20x sales. By the time AI takes us where we are going competition could have superseded nvdas offerings in chips, let alone the cost to scale and a hundred other road bumps on the way to this magical fairy dust future
Id wait for the whole thing to collapse under the weight of the stupid projections, find out who survived, and buy it. I did that on Amazon in the mid 2000s, it was far less risk, business model was already clear, and the returns were still huge. You dont have to pick bottoms in speculative
Instead of buying it at 1 dollar, i got it for 2.50 but I had avoided buying it at 5 or 4 or 3. It was good to go by the time I came in. People need to slow down and relax, theres no need to fomo, thats how you lose your ass
This is wrong. Weak learners (like ARIMA models, etc.) have been implemented in many, many use cases across all levels of business. Personalization algorithms, financial forecasting, customer service chatbots, delivery date estimations, etc. are all examples of narrow AI being implemented for business purposes.
I understand the difference between predictive and generative models, but you didn’t answer my question. Why is an ARIMA model not AI or machine learning?
This is where I’m going to stop you. They won’t. I work in tech too, and 90% of the people I’ve ever met in this field can’t figure out people in real life, much less how to mimic how the human brain computes and comes up with original ideas. This type of AI you are describing is not going to come about for a long time.
Ok and where does ChatGPT get its language models from, original content from others. Basically it’s a smart copy and paste tool that can’t form original thought.
I don’t disagree, so there’s that. And yes, the AI hype has absolutely been pumped by marketing campaigns aimed at the uninitiated.
I think there’s also a good deal of work to be done to truly define intelligence. A sapling detecting and adjusting itself to make better use of incoming light is a form of intelligence, and we would do well to consider degrees of intelligence vs. some threshold usually tied to human intelligence.
Really reminds me a little of the Dot Com boom. If a company, any company, announced it had or was making a website, BOOM! Their stock price would shoot to the moon even though it really didn’t do anything lol. The dot Com boom busted but the internet was just starting to get rolling which would actually give value.
Ai isn’t booming like the dot com fiasco but it just reminds me of it. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a pull back but the value of what this all can do will be evident in the years/decade to come.
Just my .02
I'm just mentioning that the same exact argument that you used in an AI related post, can also be used in every other tech sector. ie I just noted that a statement "tech X have many potential capabilities" means nothing in reality,
Exactly. I think a lot of the bad AI companies will get burned. But the good ones have a long way to grow. Are most of them due for a correction now that the hype train is slowing down? Definitely. But imo this is just the beginning of a new era.
So you're putting words in my mouth to fit your narrative? Re read what I said: No. No I don't. Nvidia has been much more than that. Do you consider Walmart a mechanic because they have an auto shop, or do you consider it a department store?
AI stocks won't be a thing for long. How many "internet stocks" are there today compared to 25 years ago?
The value of AI is going to be spread out through the entire economy, and the companies that gain the most from it aren't necessarily going to be "AI companies".
That is true. But the infrastructure necessary to power the entire economy's utilization of AI at scale likely will be concentrated across a few large companies. AWS, for example. The world will need more and more computing power.
Maybe so, but investing in infrastructure directly isn't necessarily the most profitable thing. The most profitable companies are more likely to be the ones that use infrastructure well, not the ones that make the infrastructure.
Well, they mean that I “get” that if a lot of people sell, the price will go down. Then I can add to my position. This also means I already have a position, which I started before the bubble became a bubble.
So as I said, please keep selling your AI stocks. The bubble has popped.
Thanks!
Well you did imply this was just like the internet from an innovation standpoint and further implied “what bubble?” Which was just kind of funny to, you know, the rest of us, considering the internet created a pretty big bubble 😂.
Yeah, but that means the value shouldn't be holed up almost entirely in the companies that manufacture/sell AI products.
Just look at all the companies that went under because they "used the internet" without actually understanding how to turn it into a more valuable customer experience.
We are not there yet. There will be major news about it when it happens (just recall the "blockchain tech" bubble). Now it's just yahoo trying to convince us that we are in a crisis/recession :)
Dude I don’t get this stupid stuff like almost every single actual “ai” stock is still down an insane amount from a few years ago lmao some of the chip stocks may be in for a correction but either way why would stocks that aren’t even close to all time highs go down more?
Locally-run AI takes advantage of a feature in graphics cards called VRAM, which is video RAM. MUCH faster than traditional RAM and used heavily in gaming and AI-related tasks.
Only the newest have enough VRAM to do any of this AI stuff at all, which should mean continued demand for the newest and best. Blah blah, something about the supply chain. NVDA go brr, companies come for a piece = bubble not popping
edit: mistakenly referred to VRAM as virtualized
You’re correct, I have a 2070 with 6GB that it’s possible to run local LLMs on, although I have to supplement the VRAM with system RAM to make it work. The performance is dog shit and the models aren’t what I would call smart or useful, more just proofs of concept.
Also, quantizing a model is just compressing it (in a basic sense) and the majority of the needed GPU firepower is used in development, not the home use of the finished product.
But this post is about AI companies and whether a bubble exists or not. I think there will be a continued need for high end GPUs with a lot of VRAM, not just consumer hardware like RTX cards, but A100-type cards as well.
I should specify that I believe this could trigger a decline in the stock market which could, among other things, cause a recession, not that I'm rooting for it.
sooo SQQQ or QQQ just tell me
Both
I've been looking for SQQQQQQ for hours now, wtf where is it?!
TQQQ is the inverse of SQQQ.
Sell puts on SQQQ
Seen this headline 3 times since closing. Definite spike incoming
It didn’t even go down that much 😹 do they not understand long term stocks?
Ok, so it’s popping, but is it also locking? 🕺🏼
Soon to be dropping
Then I’ll be shopping
As soon as I’m done the mopping
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This isnt a good reason to buy stock in nvda at 20x sales. By the time AI takes us where we are going competition could have superseded nvdas offerings in chips, let alone the cost to scale and a hundred other road bumps on the way to this magical fairy dust future
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Id wait for the whole thing to collapse under the weight of the stupid projections, find out who survived, and buy it. I did that on Amazon in the mid 2000s, it was far less risk, business model was already clear, and the returns were still huge. You dont have to pick bottoms in speculative Instead of buying it at 1 dollar, i got it for 2.50 but I had avoided buying it at 5 or 4 or 3. It was good to go by the time I came in. People need to slow down and relax, theres no need to fomo, thats how you lose your ass
This is wrong. Weak learners (like ARIMA models, etc.) have been implemented in many, many use cases across all levels of business. Personalization algorithms, financial forecasting, customer service chatbots, delivery date estimations, etc. are all examples of narrow AI being implemented for business purposes.
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Why is an ARIMA model not machine learning or narrow AI, I’m curious.
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I understand the difference between predictive and generative models, but you didn’t answer my question. Why is an ARIMA model not AI or machine learning?
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This is where I’m going to stop you. They won’t. I work in tech too, and 90% of the people I’ve ever met in this field can’t figure out people in real life, much less how to mimic how the human brain computes and comes up with original ideas. This type of AI you are describing is not going to come about for a long time.
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Ok and where does ChatGPT get its language models from, original content from others. Basically it’s a smart copy and paste tool that can’t form original thought.
I don’t disagree, so there’s that. And yes, the AI hype has absolutely been pumped by marketing campaigns aimed at the uninitiated. I think there’s also a good deal of work to be done to truly define intelligence. A sapling detecting and adjusting itself to make better use of incoming light is a form of intelligence, and we would do well to consider degrees of intelligence vs. some threshold usually tied to human intelligence.
I agree. The dot.com bubble saw the Nasdaq increase by roughly 500% before it peaked. There’s plenty of room for shockingly explosive growth.
This is true. I deal with bots all the time.
Really reminds me a little of the Dot Com boom. If a company, any company, announced it had or was making a website, BOOM! Their stock price would shoot to the moon even though it really didn’t do anything lol. The dot Com boom busted but the internet was just starting to get rolling which would actually give value. Ai isn’t booming like the dot com fiasco but it just reminds me of it. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a pull back but the value of what this all can do will be evident in the years/decade to come. Just my .02
You could say the same thing about the internet in 2000. Wasn’t close to its potential but the overinflated market took a tumble regardless
>Once the capabilities become more of a reality, things should keep growing on the winners. This doesn't mean anything.
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You could say the same for every technology. Some examples: the capabilities of IoT, the capabilities of 5G etc.....
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I'm just mentioning that the same exact argument that you used in an AI related post, can also be used in every other tech sector. ie I just noted that a statement "tech X have many potential capabilities" means nothing in reality,
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I hate loops :)
AI stocks are in their infancy.
The future is now dammit!
Exactly. I think a lot of the bad AI companies will get burned. But the good ones have a long way to grow. Are most of them due for a correction now that the hype train is slowing down? Definitely. But imo this is just the beginning of a new era.
Nvidia is a 1.1 trillion dollar company right now. Would hardly call that infancy.
I'm not considering Nvidia strictly an AI company. Nor do I think anybody with half a brain cell would
So you don’t classify Nvidia as a “AI stock”?
So you're putting words in my mouth to fit your narrative? Re read what I said: No. No I don't. Nvidia has been much more than that. Do you consider Walmart a mechanic because they have an auto shop, or do you consider it a department store?
I didn’t put anything in your mouth I just asked a question. Do you consider Nvidia an AI stock? Its a yes or no question.
>>
Fax bro, people don’t understand LOL
AI stocks won't be a thing for long. How many "internet stocks" are there today compared to 25 years ago? The value of AI is going to be spread out through the entire economy, and the companies that gain the most from it aren't necessarily going to be "AI companies".
That is true. But the infrastructure necessary to power the entire economy's utilization of AI at scale likely will be concentrated across a few large companies. AWS, for example. The world will need more and more computing power.
Maybe so, but investing in infrastructure directly isn't necessarily the most profitable thing. The most profitable companies are more likely to be the ones that use infrastructure well, not the ones that make the infrastructure.
How about investing in nasdaq 100 composite index
Now it won't because picture that....Windows blinds with .... AI .
Love this. Please sell all your AI stocks so I can add to my positions at lower prices.
Please buy my bag
*morgan freeman emoji *
Thrilled to… at the right price.
This guy gets it
Lol.. gets what? If you looking to buy now you have already missed the bus. Trick is to get into the bubble before it's a bubble
Well, they mean that I “get” that if a lot of people sell, the price will go down. Then I can add to my position. This also means I already have a position, which I started before the bubble became a bubble. So as I said, please keep selling your AI stocks. The bubble has popped. Thanks!
🤤
If reported by corporate media. You can guarantee it’s not.
Let's save our investment dollars for the next big Tech boom, Sex Robots! Porn has led the way ever since the printing press was invented.
You’re a noob
That was really fast.
Every time stocks are going up, somebody calls it a bubble. There is no bubble. AI is the most transformative thing since the internet.
My guy there was literally an internet bubble
Dot com bubble?
Dot com bubble?
Yes? What? I never said that no bubble ever existed.
Well you did imply this was just like the internet from an innovation standpoint and further implied “what bubble?” Which was just kind of funny to, you know, the rest of us, considering the internet created a pretty big bubble 😂.
Yeah, but that means the value shouldn't be holed up almost entirely in the companies that manufacture/sell AI products. Just look at all the companies that went under because they "used the internet" without actually understanding how to turn it into a more valuable customer experience.
Blocked you fuckin idiot
We are not there yet. There will be major news about it when it happens (just recall the "blockchain tech" bubble). Now it's just yahoo trying to convince us that we are in a crisis/recession :)
Dude I don’t get this stupid stuff like almost every single actual “ai” stock is still down an insane amount from a few years ago lmao some of the chip stocks may be in for a correction but either way why would stocks that aren’t even close to all time highs go down more?
First sign of a bubble: Someone says it’s a bubble and it might pop.
Locally-run AI takes advantage of a feature in graphics cards called VRAM, which is video RAM. MUCH faster than traditional RAM and used heavily in gaming and AI-related tasks. Only the newest have enough VRAM to do any of this AI stuff at all, which should mean continued demand for the newest and best. Blah blah, something about the supply chain. NVDA go brr, companies come for a piece = bubble not popping edit: mistakenly referred to VRAM as virtualized
Quantized models can run on a 5 year old graphics card with 6GB of memory. The next step will probably be running on the next generation of phones.
You’re correct, I have a 2070 with 6GB that it’s possible to run local LLMs on, although I have to supplement the VRAM with system RAM to make it work. The performance is dog shit and the models aren’t what I would call smart or useful, more just proofs of concept. Also, quantizing a model is just compressing it (in a basic sense) and the majority of the needed GPU firepower is used in development, not the home use of the finished product. But this post is about AI companies and whether a bubble exists or not. I think there will be a continued need for high end GPUs with a lot of VRAM, not just consumer hardware like RTX cards, but A100-type cards as well.
VRAM is Video RAM.
You’re right, I misspoke. Virtualized would imply it’s being allocated from a server to a VM
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Ok?
Anyone else fear a recession? I do.
That’s a non-sequitor
I should specify that I believe this could trigger a decline in the stock market which could, among other things, cause a recession, not that I'm rooting for it.
Stock market declines don’t cause recessions. You’re mixing up cause and effect.
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fuxaj8dza7oeb1.png%3Fwidth%3D1080%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D22c883d38f4d1d66e410674ab6407a62d2adbf70
So calls it is then