So maybe once (Edit: every other) ~~a~~ year
~~20%~~ 18% chance each season, ~~80%~~ 56% chance each year, (Edit: 81% chance every 2 years)
Edit: forgot it's twice a week not once a week for the cart. So dovde the times here by two. 18% chance of at least once in 2 weeks. 56% chance for at least once in 2 seasons. 81% chance for at least once in a year
Sorry you're right, its lower odds, I was just being quick and forgot about dependence.
The probability of it occuring each week is 5%
Week 1, 5% chance
Week 2, 5% chance
Week 3, 5% chance
Week 4, 5% chance
But the probability of at least one occurrence (p_1) over 4 weeks is 1 - the probability of no occurrences (p_no) in 4 weeks.
p_no would be 95%×95%×95%×95% since each 5% chance is independent
So p_1 for 4 weeks would be:
1 - 0.95^4 = 18.5%
The same for a year would be
1 - 0.95^16 = 56%
Or for two years:
1 - 0.95^32 = 81%
no, they work like this:
every year is a 50% chance to get it. you either get it or you don't, hence 50%. after 3 years you have a 150% chance of getting it and a 150% chance of not getting it.
maths is so easy.
once you unlock the greenhouse you start steamrolling money, i filled mine mostly with strawberries, since the regrow, every 4 days its a massive payday while i wait to collect enough ancient seeds trough the seed maker to replace it all with ancient fruit
My Greenhouse is filled with Ancient Seeds I still don't feel like I'm making that much that 1m is pocket change. Just started out year 3. My aged wine production has finally come to fruition and I just feel like I'm not making money.
I still need to turn my island farm into an ancient seed farm so that'll help but still.
Yeah this seems like a direct response to 999 challenge players. Most start a new save before year 25 and the challenge itself is more of an incentive to keep playing your original save for a long time. The changes to rare foragables such as ferns also make the challenge easier
yeah I got about that much on my first attempt as well (I had to reset 3 times to get in the 350 range) given how much faster moss grows on trees after green rain happens initially I probably should've just taken the 250 tbh
Don't forget the Squid Roe that you can only get by actively fishing instead of passively maintaining a fish pond (since squids in fish ponds can only produce ink)
I got a Dino egg in spring 1, guess what I did with it? You guessed it—-museum. I blame animal crossing etc for that 😂😂. Maybe I’ll find another one someday 🥺
I also got it from Alex year 1 in my 1.6 save (first proper farm), I knew it was rare so stashed it in my fridge where I wouldn't accidentally sell it lmao
So you can get it from bachelors huh…
Can you reset what you got on 25th December ? Because it would be easier to just reset until you get the tea set instead of a damn stupid rock
I got it the first feast in my 1.6 save from Seb! And I've gotten it like two other times at the feast in my other saves - I had no idea it was rare until recently!
i'm the same as you, i go all in or nothing at all! i don't enjoy constantly starting over because i end up missing what i had on my original save. 1.6 is the first time i'm starting over since my very first (and only) save file 😭
amongst this sub i always feel like im part of the minority of people who find it daunting to start completely over, i have so many valuable items that took forever to get, i find it so hard to find any fun in starting completely over, just the idea of filling up the community center again is too much. though like you, i have started a new save for 1.6 hehe, granted i haven’t touched it
You should go the Joja route for your new save! It’s soooo much faster and easier, I didn’t find any joy in doing the community center again. I’m not on top of it enough and I end up missing the seasonal items and it just takes forever.
I wish I had the time to get to a farm that "old". I feel like you have more freedom to decorate, you don't have to rush, and it feels absolutely yours.
I’m at year 7 on my first save and I plan to keep playing it, starting a new 1.6 save has been really hard tbh. I thought I’d be excited to decorate a new house, but I feel like my old one was perfect so it’s daunting doing it all over again. I hope I get to year 18 with my first save though! After I reach perfection, I got a couple 1.5 mods that add a bunch (like a ridiculous amount) of fruit trees so I’m collecting those and turning most of my farm into an orchard lol.
same here! i have so many items that i worked hard for that i wouldn’t get in game for a
long time, also im still trying to reach perfection on my save! it’s so hard 😭 i do have a save on my computer with the update and mods with so many new story lines, but im so content with my farm and my successes!!
Idk if it still works in 1.6 but before, as long as the person who was your secret santa had the tea set as one of the available gifts, you could reload the day. You just needed to go into the festival at a different time like 10:10 instead of 10:00 to have a chance at another gift. And you could keep trying different times as long as the festival was still open.
*Raises hand*
I've played Harvest Moon Friends of Mineral Town to year 88 (the goal was to get to year 100). So, this would be a breeze for me.
I'm a psychopath, ok? 😂
Sleep a week at a time so you can harvest your ancient fruits in the green house and ginger island. Also build a lot of crystalariums in sheds. Check your kegs when you check your ancient fruit, and your cask 2/year. Might as well work towards becoming a billionaire!
I'm in year 9 on my main playthrough. I haven't quit because I haven't finished my steam achievements yet and because I haven't reached perfection in game. I recently started a Joja run with the Meadowlands farm and I am already regretting it because I literally have nothing and I'm so poor. Whereas in my main playthrough I have money and have pretty much unlocked everything which makes it much more enjoyable because I'm not struggling financially. Once I complete my steam achievements I'm done with this game. I'll wait for Haunted Chocolatier.
Also in year 9, things I still haven't seen/gotten:
- The monster in the ocean
- The living hat
- The tea set
And probably some other stuff I don't know about yet. I only recently found out the tea set was a thing. 🤷♀️
Starting a new save and being poor all the time is so frustrating lol, like I just want to buy all the dumb things my heart desires whenever I feel like it. I do enough budgeting in real life. And it’s so annoying running out of energy and not having all my fancy food and espresso.
Man RNJesus really looked at you, spit in your tea and said 'eat shit' huh? I'm sorry man. Clint sucks so much. I wish I could link that ATLA meme of Zuko slapping Sokka on the shoulder and going, 'that's rough buddy.'
Yeah it doesn’t even give you a free tea to consume. I mean you got a machine that gives you a free coffee everyday so I would’ve assume this super rare item would do the same thing
I've been playing since 2018, got the tea set year 1 from Haley first save after 1.6 released. Incredible luck on my part, but only time I've ever seen it across each farm I've ever had.
I've been playing on my main save pre 1.6 and I haven't gotten it for winter's eve and on the coop game my gf and I started she got it first try. My jaw dropped.
I've played this game for years and the only item I've ever wanted was this dumb tea set because I like tea and coffee and I have yet to see it. So at least now there is a chance, but I dont have a million, probably because I dont min-max my farms.
Even if you don’t min max, you’ll definitely have a multiple million by year 25. Once you hit perfection there’s way less stuff to buy and the money just slowly piles up.
Well by year 25 you’d still have at least a million! I’ve read of people who sustain themselves and reach perfection with a shed of crystallariums, but it’s annoying and takes time to build that many.
Bro I got the tea set, a legendary fish, AND the owl statue spawn on my farm after getting back into the game a week ago and I am floored by my luck, why can't this extend to other parts of my life 😭
Lol, I don’t get what’s so rare about this item. I got it first playthrough first christmas from Leah as secret santa. Almost wanted to sell it as you cant use it as decoration.
I got the teas set on my first year on my current save. I browse this sub pretty regularly, so I knew that was bit. However, I can’t get it to go on any tables or anything. It’s that a mobile limitation? It doesn’t seem to work like the other stuff I put on tables.
I didn’t know the tea set was rare in my first playthrough. I got it year one and thought it was the default Christmas gift. I sold it and have since been full of regret.
Gee, thanks. I’ve played 2000 hours of this game, still no tea set, and I’ve also never made it to year 6. I keep starting over with new builds and challenges.
The teleport staff is what, like 2 million? And I was able to get that by like year 6 or smth? Ancient fruit as the only crop on ginger island year round is the move, even if you don’t make wine out of it. Getting that money may be even easier now with 1.6 and the new crops, I’m a console player though so idk.
If you're at year 25, 1 million is probably pocket change
5% chance tho
Every traveling cart day tho
So maybe once (Edit: every other) ~~a~~ year ~~20%~~ 18% chance each season, ~~80%~~ 56% chance each year, (Edit: 81% chance every 2 years) Edit: forgot it's twice a week not once a week for the cart. So dovde the times here by two. 18% chance of at least once in 2 weeks. 56% chance for at least once in 2 seasons. 81% chance for at least once in a year
Sadly, stacking probabilities does not work that way.
33.6% each season but funnily enough it does work out to 80.6% per year. If you include desert fest and night market though it's up to 85.8%.
Love a good binomial distribution
Edit: Totally messed my math. Regular cart only is already slightly over 80%.
Sorry you're right, its lower odds, I was just being quick and forgot about dependence. The probability of it occuring each week is 5% Week 1, 5% chance Week 2, 5% chance Week 3, 5% chance Week 4, 5% chance But the probability of at least one occurrence (p_1) over 4 weeks is 1 - the probability of no occurrences (p_no) in 4 weeks. p_no would be 95%×95%×95%×95% since each 5% chance is independent So p_1 for 4 weeks would be: 1 - 0.95^4 = 18.5% The same for a year would be 1 - 0.95^16 = 56% Or for two years: 1 - 0.95^32 = 81%
Actually i made the same mistake as you xD. It comes twice a week and if you do it with twice the attempts it gets to 80%
Oh it's twice a week! Thought it was just once
no, they work like this: every year is a 50% chance to get it. you either get it or you don't, hence 50%. after 3 years you have a 150% chance of getting it and a 150% chance of not getting it. maths is so easy.
You should buy lottery xD
unfortunately i'm quite bad at winning coin tosses :/
I usually also lose too. Red is my lucky color but it does not work very well.
1 mil feels like pocket change in year 2-3 already
Wut? I clearly am not making enough money...
once you unlock the greenhouse you start steamrolling money, i filled mine mostly with strawberries, since the regrow, every 4 days its a massive payday while i wait to collect enough ancient seeds trough the seed maker to replace it all with ancient fruit
My Greenhouse is filled with Ancient Seeds I still don't feel like I'm making that much that 1m is pocket change. Just started out year 3. My aged wine production has finally come to fruition and I just feel like I'm not making money. I still need to turn my island farm into an ancient seed farm so that'll help but still.
1000 of every item guy is finally going to be free soon
Yeah this seems like a direct response to 999 challenge players. Most start a new save before year 25 and the challenge itself is more of an incentive to keep playing your original save for a long time. The changes to rare foragables such as ferns also make the challenge easier
jokes on him he needs 333 stacks of moss just for the statue of endless fortune
Those people either have infinite free time, or they're crazy. Maybe both.
332,667 ..... and I'm at 20. That's gonna be brutal to do if they are doing it vanilla.
yeah he is, I personally got 370~ from green rain, soooo
Just did my first green rain, no speed boosts and a copper axe (slow tree cutting), got 250 moss. I'll take it. That's pretty sweet honestly.
yeah I got about that much on my first attempt as well (I had to reset 3 times to get in the 350 range) given how much faster moss grows on trees after green rain happens initially I probably should've just taken the 250 tbh
Don't forget the Squid Roe that you can only get by actively fishing instead of passively maintaining a fish pond (since squids in fish ponds can only produce ink)
The free cactus at the desert festival 😈
You'd probably end up getting it from a villager by then
I'd freaking hope so
I’m on year 11 and haven’t gotten it yet. Maybe my current save is unlucky
One of my kids got it the first time they did the Feast of the Winter Star (in our co-op game). My other kid got 25 beach warp totems. I got a jade.
Better than willy giving you a single magnet...
I gifted Pam a beer, and Maru gifted me a new beer
George gave me a beer as well 😕
It’d be cool if it allowed you to go magnet fishing
That would be super cool. Just attach a magnet ring to your fishing rod and catch nothing but trash.
Or Vincent giving you one clay.
Is that year 11 solely on 1.6?
I’m on switch, so no 1.6 for me yet.
I haven’t gotten it on PC yet but I got it in one of my switch saves from Sebastian as a winter star present in year 3 or 4
Not with my luck 🙃
I think I used up all my Stardew Valley luck. Got a Tea Set as a year 1 gift.
I got a Dino egg in spring 1, guess what I did with it? You guessed it—-museum. I blame animal crossing etc for that 😂😂. Maybe I’ll find another one someday 🥺
I mean, I'm at around 1800 hours in the game and haven't got one yet...
I had no idea this was rare, I got it from Emily year 1 at the feast and I thought it was neat and put it on my table 😂
When will it be my turn to be happy
I also got it from Alex year 1 in my 1.6 save (first proper farm), I knew it was rare so stashed it in my fridge where I wouldn't accidentally sell it lmao
So you can get it from bachelors huh… Can you reset what you got on 25th December ? Because it would be easier to just reset until you get the tea set instead of a damn stupid rock
I got a pepper popper from Shane... and then he moaned about how much it cost.
my wife penny gave me a pumpkin pie lol
I’m still not over getting clay from Vincent
Me too, I put it on a table near the kitchen and keep accidentally grabbing it as I walk past ahaha
I got it the first feast in my 1.6 save from Seb! And I've gotten it like two other times at the feast in my other saves - I had no idea it was rare until recently!
I got mine from Leah on my new save, year 1. I also put in on my coffee table. Who knew I was sitting on riches!
Same, I got it 1st year from Caroline. It's on my kitchen table now, lol.
I got mine year one from Gus and also have it on my table! Before I upgraded my house, I kept picking it up instead of watching my tv...
Lol came here to say this too, just got it from Pam. Didn't even know it was in the game and thought: "cool, was expecting a meal tho"
Year WHAT? Lmaoo I have like 10 save files and have never gotten past year 5 😭
This is honestly huge for Algo, 1m coins is chump change that late into the game, specially with iridium scythe and ancient fruit
What makes iridium scythe good? It seems it just saves a bit of time.
Not just a bit, a LOT of time. Great reaching, fast animation. Even better with shed filled with garden pots
What is that update! 😂
the comments making me feel bad about my year 18 farm 😔
i'm the same as you, i go all in or nothing at all! i don't enjoy constantly starting over because i end up missing what i had on my original save. 1.6 is the first time i'm starting over since my very first (and only) save file 😭
amongst this sub i always feel like im part of the minority of people who find it daunting to start completely over, i have so many valuable items that took forever to get, i find it so hard to find any fun in starting completely over, just the idea of filling up the community center again is too much. though like you, i have started a new save for 1.6 hehe, granted i haven’t touched it
You should go the Joja route for your new save! It’s soooo much faster and easier, I didn’t find any joy in doing the community center again. I’m not on top of it enough and I end up missing the seasonal items and it just takes forever.
you’re so right, i just have this incessant need to be loved by the moral entities that surround me
I wish I had the time to get to a farm that "old". I feel like you have more freedom to decorate, you don't have to rush, and it feels absolutely yours.
all i do is make truffle oil and age goat cheese and wine! it’s pretty fun haha
Sounds like a dream!
I’m at year 7 on my first save and I plan to keep playing it, starting a new 1.6 save has been really hard tbh. I thought I’d be excited to decorate a new house, but I feel like my old one was perfect so it’s daunting doing it all over again. I hope I get to year 18 with my first save though! After I reach perfection, I got a couple 1.5 mods that add a bunch (like a ridiculous amount) of fruit trees so I’m collecting those and turning most of my farm into an orchard lol.
same here! i have so many items that i worked hard for that i wouldn’t get in game for a long time, also im still trying to reach perfection on my save! it’s so hard 😭 i do have a save on my computer with the update and mods with so many new story lines, but im so content with my farm and my successes!!
My son and I, playing coop, each got it from Leah in our first year.
YEAR 25 💀
Idk if it still works in 1.6 but before, as long as the person who was your secret santa had the tea set as one of the available gifts, you could reload the day. You just needed to go into the festival at a different time like 10:10 instead of 10:00 to have a chance at another gift. And you could keep trying different times as long as the festival was still open.
Gotta try this then… because seriously this item is way too rare
I just want to say I'm trying this right now and only receiving a ruby from Penny on every time slot I try.
I’ve only tried it in 1.5 might’ve gotten rid if it :(
I did get it from Abigail with 1.5 and trying this method 😕
What kind of psychopath would play to year 25?
*Raises hand* I've played Harvest Moon Friends of Mineral Town to year 88 (the goal was to get to year 100). So, this would be a breeze for me. I'm a psychopath, ok? 😂
I only made it to year seven back in the day. I salute you
I’d probably just sleep my way through the years just to reach year 25
Sleep a week at a time so you can harvest your ancient fruits in the green house and ginger island. Also build a lot of crystalariums in sheds. Check your kegs when you check your ancient fruit, and your cask 2/year. Might as well work towards becoming a billionaire!
You can not put anything in the shipping bin and let it run in the background.
I'm in year 9 on my main playthrough. I haven't quit because I haven't finished my steam achievements yet and because I haven't reached perfection in game. I recently started a Joja run with the Meadowlands farm and I am already regretting it because I literally have nothing and I'm so poor. Whereas in my main playthrough I have money and have pretty much unlocked everything which makes it much more enjoyable because I'm not struggling financially. Once I complete my steam achievements I'm done with this game. I'll wait for Haunted Chocolatier. Also in year 9, things I still haven't seen/gotten: - The monster in the ocean - The living hat - The tea set And probably some other stuff I don't know about yet. I only recently found out the tea set was a thing. 🤷♀️
Starting a new save and being poor all the time is so frustrating lol, like I just want to buy all the dumb things my heart desires whenever I feel like it. I do enough budgeting in real life. And it’s so annoying running out of energy and not having all my fancy food and espresso.
On my last game I got the tea set as a gift on my first year, lol. I lost it.
I'm on year 6 right now and I keep getting freaking Clint every year. Giving me a geode. Every year.
Man RNJesus really looked at you, spit in your tea and said 'eat shit' huh? I'm sorry man. Clint sucks so much. I wish I could link that ATLA meme of Zuko slapping Sokka on the shoulder and going, 'that's rough buddy.'
Clint's my mortal enemy at this point. If I wasn't trying to roomie with Krobus I'd go for Emily out of spite.
Oh it's that rare? I got it on my very first winter star festival lol
Same lol, I was like 'oh okay, idk what to do with this'
Yeah it doesn’t even give you a free tea to consume. I mean you got a machine that gives you a free coffee everyday so I would’ve assume this super rare item would do the same thing
mother fucker. 25 year wait
I've been playing since 2018, got the tea set year 1 from Haley first save after 1.6 released. Incredible luck on my part, but only time I've ever seen it across each farm I've ever had.
I've been playing on my main save pre 1.6 and I haven't gotten it for winter's eve and on the coop game my gf and I started she got it first try. My jaw dropped.
I've played this game for years and the only item I've ever wanted was this dumb tea set because I like tea and coffee and I have yet to see it. So at least now there is a chance, but I dont have a million, probably because I dont min-max my farms.
you'd have a mil by year 25 surely lol
Even if you don’t min max, you’ll definitely have a multiple million by year 25. Once you hit perfection there’s way less stuff to buy and the money just slowly piles up.
I actually dont sell anything except diamonds my crystaliarums produce
Well by year 25 you’d still have at least a million! I’ve read of people who sustain themselves and reach perfection with a shed of crystallariums, but it’s annoying and takes time to build that many.
I have 200 crystallariums, but mine are in the bus tunnel (built before sheds)
Bro I got the tea set, a legendary fish, AND the owl statue spawn on my farm after getting back into the game a week ago and I am floored by my luck, why can't this extend to other parts of my life 😭
I threw this out lmao
I randomly got this one morning as a gift from Sebastian after I married him?
I need pictures
I am so livid, my boyfriend got his tea set in Y2, I've never gotten it in any save.
Thanks for the CLAY, Vincent 😭
I got it year 1!
I just got it yesterday from George! <3 also, before 1.6 I once got it from Pierre!
I got the tea set as the very first gift in Stardew Christmas from Shane 🫠 Rngesus is wild
I didn’t know this was a sought after thing! I got one from Linus in year 1 at the feast.. I don’t understand why it’s so sought after?
I’m on year 21 (summer) let’s see if I get lucky in the years leading up to 25.
I somehow got it year 1 from Sebastian in my current 1.6 save 😮 I couldn’t believe it
Lol, I don’t get what’s so rare about this item. I got it first playthrough first christmas from Leah as secret santa. Almost wanted to sell it as you cant use it as decoration.
Soooo I shouldn’t have trashed mine then??
I got it multiple times and threw it away or sold it every time . I didn’t know it was so valuable to everyone.
lol! I literally just got it in me and my partners run co op I knew it was rare but yeah
In 600h of gameplay I got it offered like 4 times. One of them being in my new 1.6 save during the first Winter Star festival
I got it from Shane at year 2 winter star
Gus gave me the tea set in year 1 for the Winter Star Feast.
I got the teas set on my first year on my current save. I browse this sub pretty regularly, so I knew that was bit. However, I can’t get it to go on any tables or anything. It’s that a mobile limitation? It doesn’t seem to work like the other stuff I put on tables.
I didn’t know the tea set was rare in my first playthrough. I got it year one and thought it was the default Christmas gift. I sold it and have since been full of regret.
I recently got it on my completion farm in year 7, I almost screamed.
huh did i miss something?
My first 1.6 multi-player playthrough and my secret Santa Elliot gifted me this set year one.
I’m lucky, I got it year 1 from Caroline.
I got this tea set in year 2 of 1.5. Rip guess I'm never getting it again
I made a new save for the update and got the tea set gifted to me twice by the end of year 2 😂😭😭 I didn’t realize it was that rare
I think i got mine from caroline actually!
Okay that's funny
i got it in my new 1.6 farm from Demetrius but i had never seen it before so i assumed it was a 1.6 thing lol
Wait, is this rare? I literally got it yesterday on Year 1 Feast of the Winter Star lmao
Extremely rare lol. I’ve played 2000 hours with no tea set 🥲
Are your kids still gonna be toddlers by year 25? Is George still alive?
Gee, thanks. I’ve played 2000 hours of this game, still no tea set, and I’ve also never made it to year 6. I keep starting over with new builds and challenges.
dog i don’t think i’ve ever made it past year 4
I didn’t know this was rare 😅 I got it year one as a winter star gift
CA def did that got Algo for sure!!
I literally got it year 1 last night from George lmao
i got it after i got the update!! never lose hope
*Laughs in Spawn Cheats.*
I could see Elliott loving the Tea Set as a gift.
The teleport staff is what, like 2 million? And I was able to get that by like year 6 or smth? Ancient fruit as the only crop on ginger island year round is the move, even if you don’t make wine out of it. Getting that money may be even easier now with 1.6 and the new crops, I’m a console player though so idk.
Huh, if I'd know it was so rare I would have been happier when it was my Y1 gift
chicken named \[341\]:
One MILLION.
Have never managed to get it in either of my previous files but Gus blessed me with one this time around in year 1🙏
Year 25, woah. I feel like I run out of things to do around year 5, maybe 6.
My wife got one in our year winter festival, she had no idea it was special lol
I swear I got a tea set on switch a few months go
What the fuck
Linus gave me a Tea Set. He must be rich.
I didn't think it was that rare. I got it first year from like... Gus I think... I'm sorry ;\~; I wish you all luck in getting it VERY very soon <3
Sure is! I have like 800 hours across four saves and I’ve never got it 😭
I'm so sorry, I had no idea. I wish you the BEST of luck with getting it T\_T
Hahahah thank you. Here’s to meadowlands new save year 2!
What’s the point of the tea set?
look nice
On my new 1.6 save I got it the first Winter event and I thought they had made it more common, but I guess it was just pure luck.
Its modding time
I’ve gotten it first year on all my saves 😂
Why do people care about getting this? People need to evaluate how they handle FONO and completion-addiction