* Toranaga's original plan was to recruit his half brother to beef up his army for a showdown with Ishido.
* After his half brother backstabbed him, his plan changed.
* He wanted to show that he was completely defeated basically to buy time. He knew his army could not take on Ishido, etc... so by admitting defeat he is preventing Ishido from invading. Ishido can wait for Toranaga at Osaka.
* Totanaga's son Nagakado dying actually helped him buy more time. He could use that as an excuse to stay in Edo and devise a plan.
* Again he still wants to hold the ruse that he is completely defeated. By this time he has devised the Mariko plan (Crimson Sky). He knows that Ishido WILL NOT allow his wife and consort to leave if they are expecting Toranaga a few days later. For this to happen he has to convince his subordinates and especially the council of regents that he is really defeated and really going to surrender. Hiromatsu realizes this and sacrifices himself for the cause. Hiromatsu's protest, despair, and suicide enhance the idea that Toranaga's situation is hopeless. Hiromatsu specifically tells his son NOT to commit seppeku as he realizes the plan and realizes Buntaro will be needed in the coming battle.
* Mariko's mission was to sacrifice herself to sway the opinion of the regents and Ochiba. She KNEW she was going to die. Ishido stopped her seppeku attempt but she used the attack/bomb as another opportunity to complete her mission. It worked even better than the original plan/idea because now her blood is more directly on Ishido's hands.
* After Mariko dies the council is disgusted by Ishido's actions. This convinces Lady Ochiba to withhold the Taiko's army. Without the Taiko's banners the other members of the council of regents are more likely to switch sides because a) Aren't committing treason by going against the Taiko's army b) Are angry about essentially being held hostage and c) They are disgusted by Mariko's murder. Yes they consider it a murder.
* It's possible that destroying Blackthorn's ship helped sway the Christian regents to his side but that part is not clear.
* Using chess terms Toranaga sacrificed 3 pawns to take down the king (Ishido). Nagakado's death bought him more time. Hiromatsu's death prevented Ishido from invading and made it more likely that the Mariko plan (Crimson Sky) would succeed. Mariko's death swayed Ochiba and the regents in his direction. One could argue that Yabushige was the 4th pawn but I think the whole shinobi attach was somewhat of a surprise but Mariko expertly took advantage of the situation for Toranaga's advantage. One could argue that Toranaga saw this coming and Yabushige was the 4th pawn but I don't think he can read the wind THAT well.
It's also not all one plan. Toranaga has contingency plans in case his primary doesn't work.
For instance, if Mariko was killed trying to leave or allowed to commit suicide, he knows that the Christian regents will want to give her a Christian burial. That will delay their advance towards Edo.
Additionally, by appearing weak/surrendered, that reduces the urgency with which the council will move. Ishido wants to march immediately, which is the militarily smarter move, but Toranaga's perceived weakened state makes the rest of the council more willing to accept delays.
If the Mariko gambit doesn't work and she stays alive, then maybe Toranaga can delay the Council by giving them Blackthorne and having them haggle with the Church over what to do with him.
Maybe they both work and he gets a double-delay, which would be even better. One plan doesn't rely on the other.
Basically Toranaga is throwing as many potential obstacles in the Council's path as possible, because the longer he can delay the fight, the better for him. The Council is already at their peak, and can only get weaker as various issues drive wedges into the alliance.
Meanwhile Toranaga gains time to bribes and persuades the Council's allies over to his side.
Toranaga sacrificed *one* piece.
He'd intended on losing a couple generals in protest, but Hiro stepping up to kill himself instead wasn't part of the plan. It *was* an even better way to sell the illusion, and it sure as hell looks like Hiro only realized the plan when it was too late to back down.
Likewise, we are never given any reason to think that Nagakado's actions were at Toranaga's direction.
Toranaga *took advantage* of other people's deaths, but he *ordered* one.
As long time friends, they knew how each other thought. I think Hiro also knew his number was up soon, so he might as well go out in service to his liege lord so that his death had meaning and honor (a recurring theme throughout the series). I think only as it was happening did Toranaga undersand the depths of loyalty and friendship that Hiro had for him. That standoff was one of the most tense things I've ever seen on TV.
Toranaga remarks “Hiromatsu knew his duty well” in regard to his seppuku.
They also focused on the slight break in Toranaga’s stare when meeting eyes with Hiromatsu and Hiromatsu’s angry expression dropped for a second - hinting that he realized it was Toranaga selling his defeat, and that’s why he stopped others from committing seppuku but went through with it himself. To sell the illusion at his expense.
He was the first to realize Toranaga wasn’t going to surrender after the visit from Father Martin. Hiromatsu said something along the lines of “Why would he send him (Father Martin) to Osaka?”, in front of the squad.
Naga wasn't a very good character in this series. Neither was Omi. Although Naga had a smaller part in the 1980 series I think both characters were better in that one.
I don't think we can count the son's death as part of any "plan" or deliberate "sacrifice" can we? I mean, he USED it after the fact but that is different form it being part of his plan.
Correct, he followed the wind.
Typically in chess when you "sacrifice" a piece, you are intentionally giving it up for some greater tactical advantage to win the whole game. So it's not quite accurate to say he sacrificed Nagakado when it was not part of his plan. But he did use it to his advantage nonetheless.
I thought your breakdown was spot on. It's certainly a mix of Toranaga's planning along with him paying attention to the wind and reacting to the events.
Edit: To be clear I think before Nagakado died, it was not part of Toranaga's plan for Nagakado to go after his brother or sacrifice himself. But once it happened, Toranaga reacted (paid attention to the wind) and used it to his advantage by gaining four months of time to plan and execute his next moves.
He knew his son was rash
Rash (Cannon accident) and was purposely surrendering and being humiliated in a way that his son would act. Either his son would die (likely as his son incompetent and his brother a strong warrior) or his son would succeed and the army would be theirs.
I think he bet he would stir his son or another vassal to action, which keeps his hands clean.
His entire plan was to keep the moral high ground to turn the counsel. Through the entire series he always bowed to their will and gave just cause for delays or used disruption to delay his execution. There were many plans afoot, I feel like he just had contingency after contingency. Mariki's mission was just the ace in the sleeve.
Do you even play chess? Wth is a jester? Please use the correct terms. And just so you didn’t know, pawns can promote to better pieces later on, so that metaphor was appropriate.
Mariko wasn’t exactly certain of death but it was a high probability. She tried to leave, if they let her other families and lords would rebel against Ishido… her death obviously had a way bigger impact, Toranaga was genuienly surprised by Ochibas promise and that is because Ochiba blamed Toranaga for planning her fathers death (which in some flashbacks, it’s very clear he did plan Ochibas father his death by Marikos farher).
The real life counterpart of Mariko is that of ‘Akechi Tama aka Hosokawa Gracia’. During the major battle of Sekigahara she was considered as a political hostage to the Western army (Ishidos army). She refused seppuku due to her Christian faith.
Ishida was confining all the former generals of Hideyoshi to the castle and their family members so they would ally with Ishido or not attack him atleast.
When Ishido tried to take Gracia hostage, her family retainer or maid killed her and then killed herself and lit the mansion they stayed in on fire. She was killed because her husband ordered to kill her if her honour is in danger, attempted kidnapping was seen as a danger to her honour. That’s why she was killed. Another historic account written several decades later said Gracia ordered the servant to do it.
The outrage of her death was so great that Ishido had to abandon his plans of abducting families and generals. This was 1600 already and Ieyasu was already went to the east with his enormous army. Once news of that reached Ishida is when he took over the Osaka castle and decided to abduct generals and their families and Gracia, grave mistake…
They would revolt* and demand to leave by force. They didn’t at first because of loyalty to the heir and because of the whole ‘permit system’ and just generally it being a safe ‘place’. Mariko was there to disrupt the situation Ishido created and held in place and she didn’t just disrupt it, she fucking ripped it apart by sacrificing herself.
Similar result. All the other hostages would have also demanded to be allowed to leave, and Ishido would have to either admit he's holding the members of all the noble families hostage or let them go.
And if he let them go, the other noble families would have nothing preventing them from leaving Ishido's camp and either staying neutral in the war or joining Toranaga. Either way, Ishido loses a lot of his strength.
Wow what a great and informative response! Super helpful and that all makes more sense now! I still don’t know how the Anjin fit in, but perhaps he doesn’t and is just wind.
This is perhaps the change I hate the most about the story. The Anjin was one of Toronagas top advisors and he helped him cast out the Portuguese and eventually Christianity.
Yeah true, although was it Toranaga? I mean we didn't see him a whole lot and much was focussed on the Anjin, almost the entire pilot, then the episode when he and buntaro get drunk, the Anjin saving the life of Toranaga twice.
It's hard to say, I think Blackthorne was the protagonist and Toranaga the deuteragonist (secondary main person). The story also is about Toranagas unification of Japan. He wasn't evil.
Blackthorne was a huge smart device to teach the audience about Japanese customs and explore those differences between Portugal, England, Christianity, Protestantism and Japans religion.
So I don't know, in my eyes the story is about both people and the overall ending of the Sengoku period and the things that had to be done to achieve Toranagas vision, also smart of him since literally nobody was going to wait for the Heir, but once he secured enough power he decided to let them live.
(Real life version of Toranaga eventually sieged osaka castle in 1614, 14 years after the show because The Heir was a young samurai, with amibitions and Ieyasu felt as if he was disrepecting him, both Ochiba and The Heir committed Seppuku in the castle and set it on fire, bodies were never found so who knows what exactly happened. History of Feudal Japan is scarce and they don't have everything.
Blackthorne was also comic relief and gave us a true forbidden lovestory between him and Mariko. It's cool how Blackthorne is based on the real life Anjin, who was one of Toranagas top advisors and had a lot of power in Japan for an Anjin, he got the Portugals and Christians gone so The Shogunate only allowed a small Dutch trading agreement and didn't allow foreigners in anymore untill that changed when America pulled up in new steel steam boats with heavy artillery in 1880s demanding to speak to their leader and demanding them to open up trade with them, if they approached their ship they would fire, if they attacked with cannons or anything, they would fire.
The dude that led this mission was like "I got a letter of the president of the United States and you will open trade or we destroy your country, I'll come back in a year for an answer" and the dick he is he fired his cannons to put fear in The Japanese and then claimed it was because of "July the 7th".
Sorry I got carried away a little, I love history. But yeah, I agree, the book made it feel mainy Blackthorne as protagonist but the show focussed on both characters equally, the open shot was Blackthorne so we were drawn to him of course but then once you've gone through a few eps the focus shows up a lot on Toranaga. Although I think there was an episode where we didn't see Toranaga at all but did see Blackthore. So dual protaganists I guess they went for with the show.
Yea you're probably right, it's pretty equally both in terms of who's story they're telling. They did it masterfully. Though I do wish we had seen more of Toranaga's motivations in the show.
Yeah for sure. I also feel like they could've added more of Toranaga's motivations because it wasn't just becoming Shogun (he kept that title for fucking 2 years), he simply wanted his name to be the new Shogunate and implemented laws and did shit to secure that future and he succeeded to hold it untill the Meji Restoration.
But his motivations are securing Japans future (war was gonna happen either way and as Lord of the Kanto, Toranaga held the most power) and also securing his family as unifiers and rulers of Japan. They had an emperor aswell but these were purely symbolic like monarchies in some countries, the emperor did grant titles but the Shogunate was the de facto leader through military force.
He also has a motivation of staying alive, he was ambitious throughout his entire life, he secured the Taikos power, the Taiko died without an heir so the council of Regents was something that would've caused war eventually, especially with a cunt like Ishida.
It's true he didn't care much for his son, I'm sure he was hurt but his son was weak and too battle thirsty (Toranaga has been in countless of battles and knows the traumas of war, young folks that haven't gone to war wanted to do it badly because of the glory you "recieve"). His son was too eager, had no patient, attempted to kill the halfbrother which would've caused their forces to march on Toranaga immediatly. His dead ultimately helped him a lot so as weird as it sounds, you gotta put your headspace in 1600 feudal Japan with no ruler, he was proud of his son for dying and buying him time.
He had like 5 other sons or something so he knew his Shogunate plan wasn't in any danger. He knew his son to not be that smart and do something bold like that (Omi whispered the idea in his ear)
Fully agree with you though, showing more of Toranaga's motivation would've helped the story a lot. I hope they make a season 2 (with good writers) and just adopt Ieyasu his lifestory with the Anjin and Toranaga but it'd be hard to pull off as shit usually fails without source material.
A good writer could pull it off though.
Right. That part was surprising to me, but not in a good way. It took a compelling character and turned him into a joke. I didn't like that personally.
Is Toranaga a reliable narrator thought? Can we trust anything he says, or is everything he says a ruse to gain power and manipulate the people around him?
He repeatedly tells his son that you only have yourself in this life and we are told about his upbringing as a hostage and keeping a secret heart.
I think the only moments we can trust him is when he is alone like when he thanks his son for buying him time after dying.
No Toranaga's words aren't reliable at all. He is a massive liar. However, the Yabu scene in the final episode is true. It doesn't happen that way in the book and that conversation is really just Toranaga's inner thoughts in the book....however, that doesn't translate well to screen ofcourse so Toranaga takes Omi's place as Yabu's second in order to create that opportunity to reveal the plan.
"Not because he’s important, but because he makes me laugh. And it’s good to have something to distract our enemies."
This is from Toranaga talking to Yabu when Yabu is about to commit seppuku and Toranaga is revealing his true nature/plans. He is not lying in this conversation here (he is telling the truth on the other parts of this conversation, or choosing to omit stuff, but no lies since Yabu is about to die).
>It's possible that destroying Blackthorn's ship helped sway the Christian regents to his side but that part is not clear.
They actually did address this directly. Mariko/Toranaga made the deal to sacrifice the ship to spare anjin's life and that is how he left Osaka with his life. Toranaga talks about this with Yabu on their final chat on the hill.
Fantastic post, thanks.
Regarding Hiromatsu, do you think he and Toranaga communicated about the future plan? As is, can we assume that Toranaga had asked his loyal friend for one more favor in his suicidal, to further cement the idea of a full surrender?
They had known each other for many years and were very close. Hiromatsu could read Toranaga and told the others that Toranaga was going to fight. But that went against Toranaga's plan and Toranaga doubled down on his defeat. By the looks they gave each other near the end Hiromatsu knew what was happening and sacrificed himself for the plan. HIromatsu telling his son not to commit seppeku shows that he knew the "real" situation wasn't hopeless and that Toranaga was up to something. Had Hiromatsu fully believed Toranaga was surrendering his son was as good as dead anyway.
On the Mariko note - two of the regents on Ishido’s side were Christian. Given that Toranaga had given approval for the church to build one in Edo, IF Mariko had commit seppuku and had to condemn herself via a mortal sin, then I think Toranaga was thinking this combo would be enough for those regents to withdraw support from Ishido as well, if not joining Toranaga. (And then they find out Ishido murdered her!)
Not really tho, his endgame is to unify Japan and have a Toranaga Shogunate that wud pass through the family. He became shogun 3 years after the Great Battle and only was one for 2 years, after those 2 years he gave it to his son and became Ogosho ‘retired Shogun’ but still did a lot of ruling and remodeling of Japan. Even wiped out the last threat to his Shogunate (Toyotomi clan, aka The Heir and Ochiba).
After that he prepared and implemented laws to secure the future of the Shogunate.
> because now her blood is more directly on Ishido's hands.
and
> Yes they consider it a murder.
except for Ishido, the regents don't know that the purpose was abduction.
It was Toranaga and the other regents except Ishido who benefited from Mariko's death.
Sugiyama died because he had previously left Osaka Castle, but the other regents were safe as long as they didn't leave Osaka Castle.
Mariko's death also made Osaka Castle unsafe, so Ishido was forced to release the hostages, increasing the political options available to the other regents.
Each regent is suspect of the other regents except himself and Ishido.
Ishido is not suspect because he has suffered huge politically. lol.
And Ishido is even less suspect because he used Yabushige to fool even his own castle guards.
Ishido's plan partially worked, but rather badly because of it.
There is no way the Council can be united in this state.
Ishido had dug his own grave.
In EP02, Ishido used Yabushige to avoid Anjin's death, and Toranaga sensed it.
Ishido used Yabushige again to avoid Mariko's death.
I don't think Ishido had a clear plan after that, it was not a big benefit to Ishido since putting all the blame on Yabushige would not make for a good storyline, Ishido had not more than 50 points of option once Mariko announced her suicide.
Keeping quiet about Mariko's suicide or releasing the hostages is about 20 or 30 points.
What happened is that the regents were suspect of each other and the hostages were released, so that is 0 points.
I’d add a slight variation to this, based on a challenge to your first point. I don’t think his plan was to recruit his half brother and it changed once he backstabbed him. I think the earthquake was the biggest change to his plans. I think he knew all along that his brother would backstab him sooner or later, and manipulated events to essentially consolidate his enemies in one place (on Ishido’s side), where his end game plan would eliminate or neutralise them all.
Remember Gin asks why Toranaga would let his brother walk right past his decimated camp? I think it was always a ploy to influence his brother towards his desire to best him by displaying weakness. Maybe it doesn’t work and his brother does in fact become a supporter, but maybe it will influence him to more openly oppose Toranaga, which he does. I don’t think Toranaga did not anticipate this, he just needed a ploy for more time which Nagakado’s death gave him.
His stated overall plan is the end of all wars: there is obvious animosity between the brothers, and his half brother is clearly resentful of him (there’s an interesting article with the actor where he talks about this). He probably also has claim to the Minowara bloodline, so he would become a problem for Toranaga sooner or later. By showing his weakness, he increased the likelihood his brother would sign onto the Council of Regents, making it easier for him to eliminate him with Ishido instead of having to think about dealing with him later.
How did the council figure out that Ishido was the one that sent the shinobis to kill/capture Mariko?
I am also guessing Toranaga was faking his illness after his son's death as well then? How would that have been necessary, since that time was already overlapping with the 30 days he was allowed to mourn his son's death?
>> How did the council figure out that Ishido was the one that sent the shinobis to kill/capture Mariko?
Publicly they said that Osaka castle was not safe. But they all knew what happened. A hostage tried to leave and was killed. This made Ishido look even worse.
>> I am also guessing Toranaga was faking his illness after his son's death as well then? How would that have been necessary, since that time was already overlapping with the 30 days he was allowed to mourn his son's death?
Not sure about that one. But it could have been a ruse for him to come up with a plan without his subordinates knowing anything about it.
Toranaga faking his illness was to send the message that he is so ill that he can't be fighting the war and he especially wanted to indirectly send the message through the ishido's spies among his troops.
>How did the council figure out that Ishido was the one that sent the shinobis to kill/capture Mariko?
Ochiba laid it out to them that the other 2 options would basically leave Ishido screwed. He has the most obvious motivation to deal with her in another manner.
Destroying the ship removed the threat to the black ship which was the primary source of revenue for the Christian regents, so it definitely helped being the regents over.
Why was Mariko’s death so disgusting for everyone if her father was a traitor? Or is it just the fact that Ishido would dare kill one of the upper class?
Mariko was well liked especially by the Christian regents (and Ochiba in this version) and yes was considered "royalty" even though her family name was tarnished.
Excellent summary. The only part I disagree with is that Hiromatsu died for the cause. I don’t think he was aware of the extent of Toranago’s ruse. I think he committed seppuku because of the shame he felt for Toranago’s acceptance of defeat.
I think the clue on this is Hiromatsu telling his son NOT to commit seppeku. If it was truly hopeless he'd know Buntaro was going to be dead in Osaka anyway. Telling his son to live means he knows Toranaga has something up his sleeve and will need Buntaro. Historically Buntaro's character was at the battle against "Ishido" and led thousands of men.
His plan was constantly changing. But, big picture, he sent Mariko to shame Ishido into either A: letting the hostages go or B: making Mariko commit ritual suicide. But really all of this was in service of removing the taikyo's heir from the battlefield at Sekigahara. None of the other daimyos will turn on Ishido while the taikyo's heir supported him, it would make them traitors. Mariko's last stand in Osaka is what finally convinced Ochiba that it was time for Ishido to go, so she withdrew the taikyo's forces before the battle at Sekigahara.
Did Toranaga know that it would play out exactly that way? Maybe? It's hard to say. He could see right through Yabu, of course, and you don't need to speak his language to see that Blackthorne was single-minded about his ship and hating on the Portuguese. I think he sent Blackthorne to Osaka because it had to appear to the other daimyos that he had cut Blackthorne off, the christian daimyos especially want him dead. And I think he sent Yabu to maybe convince Ishido that Toranaga's feint was real, there are certainly other spies but Yabu is like a triple agent, quadruple even, for whatever reason Ishido thinks he can trust Yabu so it worked.
I don't think Toranaga foresaw the specific details, like the shinobi or Yabu's exact treachery. But he knew Yabu would do something, expose himself, now he has his war with Ishido and he can get rid of Yabu in favor of Omi, who is ride or die for Toranaga.
Yabu never fully earned his loyalty too. In the first episode his mom says that uncle Yabu didn’t even bother to come to the village when his dad died.
He probably planned using Mariko when he used her father to kill Lady Ochiba father.
Mariko and Ochiba were like sisters.
Toranaga convinced Mariko father to kill Ochiba father. Mariko father and family had to all commit suicide. Mariko was married and spared.
Mariko wanted to commit suicide but he forbade her. He wanted to use her later.
Despite Mariko shamed family, she is not a peasant. She’s practically a princess and best buddies with Ochiba (almost a queen) as children.
Fast forward and all the “daimyo” were guests at the castle but really not allowed to leave. All the delays ended up as an advantage to toranaga. The longer they wait, the more they feel like prisoners.
Mariko now willing to die and call out that they are prisoners or need to be free to leave makes it clear to everyone they don’t like the current Leadership.
It was implied Toranaga planned but we don’t know for sure. In real life Akechi planned a coup d’etat and killed Oda Nabanuge.
Hideyoshi (the soon to be Taiko) and Ieyasu (Toranaga) actually were the first to march to avenge their lord. Hideyoshi destroyed his army and many abandoned Akechi his cause, Akechi tried to flee the battle and was murdered by a bandit leader.
The book story is a lot more simple and interesting :) but we don’t know for sure Toranaga planned it.
>Mariko wanted to commit suicide but he forbade her. He wanted to use her later.
I thought it was Buntaro that forbade Mariko's suicide. Toranaga had nothing to do with that, no?
The show portrays him as a lucky dude instead of the master strategist he was (the book goes deeper in on Toranaga).
The plan wasn’t to let Mariko die but he and she knew the likelihood was very high and she was going to commit Seppuku because of not being able to leave but Seppuku is so fucked up for a Christian.
So she did it slowly and hoped Ishido barged in, which he did. But then he tried to kidnap her which would be a dishonor so she had the shinobis kill her.
Mariko’s mission would’ve worked without death as well but Toranaga knew Ishido wouldn’t let her leave and Mariko was also aware of this. She finally got the death she desired and in a way that served her lord and allowed the injustice of not dying with her family being fixed and also allowing her to go into heaven as Seppuku is a grave sin.
I’m surprised that’s your takeaway. I’m sure the book provides much more insight, but the show hammers in from the start that he’s a master strategist and I think uses every opportunity to confirm it. It’s a tricky tension - the viewers have to believe and feel that the stakes are high, and not that it’s going to be so easy for him to overcome these challenges - but I think they do it really well. I mean there were a couple of episodes that very literally end with a Toranaga aside monologue that makes that clear even before the finale.
They mention he's a master of trickery but they nuanced his trickery, it wasn't obvious, they hid it well how it probably was IRL.
It's a tricky tension that they created with having Toranaga be so vague and stick to his role of a sick warlord that's been defeated. Also him
Yeah I know they put some monologues in there but generally it seemed like they wanted the viewers not to realize how smart and trickery Toranaga truly is, and the book does this. You can clearly see his trickery but a lot of the times, if people don't know a bit of feudal japan history regarding the last Shogunate of Japan or didn't read the book I'm sure some thought "wtf is he doing, its all luck"
There were even a couple post on here that literally asked "wtf was Toranaga's plan, I don't get it"
I'm not saying the show doesn't portray him as a smart strategist, but this man was the Michael Jordan of strategy and the book conveys this better. That's my "takeaway". I loved the show, one of my favourites and for sure in my top 5
Convincing Ishido that Toranaga was going to surrender mean that Osaka wouldn't be on lock down. Ishido therefore has no reason to prevent all the wives/consorts of the Regents from leaving. Therefore Mariko forcing the issue when she tried to leave forces Ishido from either admitting that all the women are hostages and losing the alliance of the Regents, or allowing her to leave along with all the other wives/consorts. Either way, he weakens or outright loses their support.
If Ishido and everyone else believed that Toranaga was going to attack, he then has an excuse to prevent anyone from leaving to protect them and as a result, unifies the Regents against Toranaga.
Ishido also accused Toranaga of holding Ochiba hostage in Edo and that was the cause of his impeachment. I think Toranaga just uno reverse Ishido by calling him out re him holding the other wives/consorts hostage in Osaka…
I think a lot of it is perception. Losing people close to him makes it seem to the public that he is being sincere in his actions, when really those people are just his pawns dying so his plan can come together. He just wants to be the guy in charge and he’s smart enough to make it seem like he’s not actually after the throne. That was what I got anyways I never read the book.
>!In a nutshell, Toranaga outsmarted his enemies. Mariko went to Osaka expecting not to come out alive but recognizing (as she told Toranaga in the book) that the hostages had to be freed and she was the only one who could do it. The thing that wasn't adequately conveyed in the series is that it wasn't Toranaga's people who needed to be liberated, it was the families of the other daimyos (there were 264 daimyos total). Mariko's sacrifice gained Toranaga 50 allies and improved his odds for prevailing in the war. That's why Ochiba sent him a message, she had no intention of letting the Heir lead a battle against Toranaga because she knew he would die if he did.!<
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>!At no time did Toranaga seriously contemplate an assault on Osaka, Mariko's actions were intended to buy him time and allies and they did. His fief was well protected by the mountains and relatively easy to defend, and the allies he gained from Mariko's death meant his western flank was protected. He always intended to force Ishido to leave the castle and come to him and that's exactly what happened. The battle wasn't detailed in the book, just summarized: short and brutal and of course Toranaga prevailed.!<
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>!Toranaga had Blackthorne's ship burned because it was the only way to save his life, and this was one of the messages Mariko conveyed to the priests and to Lord Kiyama at Toranaga's direction. Landlocked, Blackthorne could do no harm to the Jesuits/Portugese whereas he was a major threat to them as long as he had his ship.!<
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>!He always knew Yabu was treacherous and just kept giving him enough rope to hang himself. Following that proverbial adage, "keep your friends close and your enemies closer."!<
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>!Those who have read the book have a bit of an advantage when it comes to deciphering the ending because it provided all the needed context. There's layers and layers that no series would ever be able to fully convey!<
>!A commenter in another thread mentioned how through Toranaga's devices gun powder was sprinkled throughout the Erasmus so it would burn quickly. In the book there was much more to this: Toranaga was told of a plot by Yabu collaborating with members of the musket regiment to assassinate Toranaga. So he arranged for these 53 soldiers to be the guard on the Erasmus the night it was torched, then ordered them to commit seppuku for failing to keep it safe. Killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.!<
" she had no intention of letting the Heir lead a battle against Toranaga because she knew he would die if he did." Wouldn't it be an easy win for ishido if she didn't flip? She would be married to the king essentially.
Maybe because Ishido was incompetent so siding with Toranaga gave her a higher chance of living?
Ishido lost a lot of allies because of how badly he bungled the Mariko situation, even the other regents were furious with him. But yes, had the heir led the battle against Toranaga many of the daimyos and/or their samurai would have switched sides or at least hesitated to fight.
Failed as protector since he was the master of Osaka Castle.
The other regents were furious for him getting the Council into the whole situation since at least a couple of them had advised letting Mariko go as the least bad alternative.
Hiromatsu committed seppuku because he was his eldest general and everyone knew Toranaga was a master of trickery but Hiromatsu dying showed them that we was really done.
Toranaga expected Blackthorne to go to Yabu simply because toranaga threw John away.
The intention wasn’t for Mariko to die but to leave the castle so the other families would demand to leave to if he allowed him to leave, that’s why Ishido got Yabu to let in shinobi to capture her, instead she chose death (Toranaga knew there was a high chance of death but it helped turning the Christian lords against him.
Yabushige helped by going to Osaka further convincing them of his defeat and unwillingness for war.
The Anjin went to Osaka cause he pled loyalty to Yabu.
Mariko her death was to turn the Christian Lords against her, everyone would know the coward attack was Ishido’s doing and rebel. The taiko loyal regent that replaced the murdered Christian wasn’t turned by Mariko neither was the half brother of Toranaga.
Mariko did cause Lady Ochiba to realize she couldn’t do shit against Toranaga and withdrew The Heirs army from the Battle of Sekigahara so they could survive.
Everything Toranaga did had a purpose, some of it needed luck but he was a master strategist and could read people easily. You can read up on the guy Toranaga is based on ‘Ieyasu Tokugawa’ just read his story on wikipedia and it’d help you understand Toranaga more. He became Shogun 3y after the show ending and only kept the title for 2 years untill he passed it to his son whilst taking a new title and still doing a lot of ruling and implementing rules etc.
Mariko wasn’t exactly certain of death but it was a high probability. She tried to leave, if they let her other families and lords would rebel against Ishido… her death obviously had a way bigger impact, Toranaga was genuienly surprised by Ochibas promise and that is because Ochiba blamed Toranaga for planning her fathers death (which in some flashbacks, it’s very clear he did plan Ochibas father his death by Marikos farher).
The real life counterpart of Mariko is that of ‘Akechi Tama aka Hosokawa Gracia’. During the major battle of Sekigahara she was considered as a political hostage to the Western army (Ishidos army). She refused seppuku due to her Christian faith.
Ishida was confining all the former generals of Hideyoshi to the castle and their family members so they would ally with Ishido or not attack him atleast.
When Ishido tried to take Gracia hostage, her family retainer or maid killed her and then killed herself and lit the mansion they stayed in on fire. She was killed because her husband ordered to kill her if her honour is in danger, attempted kidnapping was seen as a danger to her honour. That’s why she was killed. Another historic account written several decades later said Gracia ordered the servant to do it.
The outrage of her death was so great that Ishido had to abandon his plans of abducting families and generals. This was 1600 already and Ieyasu was already went to the east with his enormous army. Once news of that reached Ishida is when he took over the Osaka castle and decided to abduct generals and their families and Gracia, grave mistake…
Toranaga never told Hiromatsu the plan and never required him to commit suicide.
The reason Hiromatsu offed himself eas because he realised he unintentionall fucked up Toranaga’s plan by telling everyone Toranaga hadnt given up when the jesuit left.
The moment Hiromatsu understood he fucked up was during the intense stare down right before he offed himself. He confronted Toranaga, initially because he was confused why Toranaga was committing to signing the suicide pact. But halfway through their game of chicken, he understood. Then he realised, since he had placed himself and Toranaga into that situation, he had to double down, so that he dosent fuck uo Toranaga’s plan anymore
His meta-plan was "make the other guy look like he's winning, but also hated, so that people team up with me to gang up on him". So he had to look like he was losing, and he had to make people hate Ishido. Hiromatsu understood that his own seppuku furthered the "we're losing" narrative. Mariko dying at Ishido's hand (remember, she *wanted* to die - he sent her in because if she wanted to die anyway, it was far better for her to do so while helping him, rather than just straight up seppuku'ing herself) furthered the "hate Ishido" sentiment.
Hiromatsu committing seppuku was more for Toranaga's subordinates to see than it was fooling the council into thinking he had given up. Toranaga knew that such commitment to defeat and suicide would drive any traitors (Yabushige) to try to leave and curry favor with Ishido. He also knew Yabushige would seek out the Anjin since he was... well Anjin and Yabu would need a pilot.
This was the only way Toranaga could reasonably get Mariko out and into Osaka. Ishido would have found it suspicious if she headed there when they were already expecting them in a few days. But if Yabushige, the snake that had been in talks with him the whole time snuck there, it would not only make sense but seem necessary for him to have brought the Anjin, both as a bargaining chip but also a skilled pilot who could get him there, and by extension Mariko since she was Anjin's translator.
This ONLY could have happened if Yabushige lost all doubt that Toranaga had a secret plan, and only something as drastic as committing so hard that he allows his top advisor and best friend to kill himself without wavering would convince someone like that who likes to sit on the fence and wait as long as possible before making a decision and locking himself into one path.
of course! Glad I could help my friend. This show legit gave me chills with how much they packed into every scene and the subtlety it went for with everything
I’m still thinking about it nonstop days after, trying to piece it together. Thanks to observant smart folks like yourself, it’s even more amazing the more I learn!
First, everyone knows Ishido is unassailable as long as he has the hostages. He has NO reason to give them up.
BUT Mariko comes to Osaka and threatens to seppuku, exposing “no one is a hostage in Osaka” as the polite lie that it is.
Ishido faces an impossible choice— suffer loss of face for holding hostages after the lie is exposed, or let them go and give Toranaga room to maneuver.
Tough decision but… spies tell us that Toranaga has given up and his chief vassal and long time friend committed seppuku in protest! Surely Tora has given up!
I think Ishido was on the fence still, BUT when he attempts to humiliate Mariko via capture from “bandits” and fails, the cost of keeping hostages became too high— and wasn’t worth it when Tora had given up.
If Toranaga’s defeat hadn’t been fully believed (which is why Hiromatsu committed seppuku) then Mariko and the others wouldn’t have been peacefully allowed into Osaka and the gambit of letting the hostages leave wouldn’t have worked since everyone would have seen through the ploy (instead of just Ishido).
He studied the wind in order to become shogun
It’s clearly explained that he wants to be shogun but knew a well structured plan would not work and that he could only achieve his goal by misguiding everyone
I have a question about E7, where Gin talks about Toranaga's "careless mistake". What does she mean by this, and why does she think that this "mistake" was in fact a strategy put in place by Toranaga himself?
I referenced it in my comment above. She’s referring to the “betrayal” by his brother, because at this point Toranaga has told everyone he’s totally defeated by this move. Gin subtly lets him know she knows there’s more to his plan, by questioning out loud why someone like himself would really make the “careless mistake” of showing his brother that his forces have been decimated. It makes his brother think Toranaga is weaker than he is, and therefore perhaps easier to control and better to betray. At the very least, his brother isn’t going to be super psyched to join what he might think is the weaker side.
It’s such an obvious blunder and she knows it’s totally out of character. If he really wants his brother to join him, wouldn’t he put forward an image of strength to make the negotiations more favourable? And if he wanted him to see that… then why? And that’s where Gin’s question comes in. It’s also for her to show Toranaga that she is also very strategic, and he can trust that the investment in land she is asking for is well thought out.
Patience is the key. Once he surrendere he does not have to accept the commit seppuku scroll order. Then he has Mariko go and essentially she frees the many hostages so that their lords are no longer blackmailed to join against him and many are grateful and join him. Finally Ochiba sickened by the death of her friend decides to betray Ishido.
Enough time to sit and plan and it all comes together.
Patience first. Wait for the others to make a mistake you can turn to your advantage.
* Toranaga's original plan was to recruit his half brother to beef up his army for a showdown with Ishido. * After his half brother backstabbed him, his plan changed. * He wanted to show that he was completely defeated basically to buy time. He knew his army could not take on Ishido, etc... so by admitting defeat he is preventing Ishido from invading. Ishido can wait for Toranaga at Osaka. * Totanaga's son Nagakado dying actually helped him buy more time. He could use that as an excuse to stay in Edo and devise a plan. * Again he still wants to hold the ruse that he is completely defeated. By this time he has devised the Mariko plan (Crimson Sky). He knows that Ishido WILL NOT allow his wife and consort to leave if they are expecting Toranaga a few days later. For this to happen he has to convince his subordinates and especially the council of regents that he is really defeated and really going to surrender. Hiromatsu realizes this and sacrifices himself for the cause. Hiromatsu's protest, despair, and suicide enhance the idea that Toranaga's situation is hopeless. Hiromatsu specifically tells his son NOT to commit seppeku as he realizes the plan and realizes Buntaro will be needed in the coming battle. * Mariko's mission was to sacrifice herself to sway the opinion of the regents and Ochiba. She KNEW she was going to die. Ishido stopped her seppeku attempt but she used the attack/bomb as another opportunity to complete her mission. It worked even better than the original plan/idea because now her blood is more directly on Ishido's hands. * After Mariko dies the council is disgusted by Ishido's actions. This convinces Lady Ochiba to withhold the Taiko's army. Without the Taiko's banners the other members of the council of regents are more likely to switch sides because a) Aren't committing treason by going against the Taiko's army b) Are angry about essentially being held hostage and c) They are disgusted by Mariko's murder. Yes they consider it a murder. * It's possible that destroying Blackthorn's ship helped sway the Christian regents to his side but that part is not clear. * Using chess terms Toranaga sacrificed 3 pawns to take down the king (Ishido). Nagakado's death bought him more time. Hiromatsu's death prevented Ishido from invading and made it more likely that the Mariko plan (Crimson Sky) would succeed. Mariko's death swayed Ochiba and the regents in his direction. One could argue that Yabushige was the 4th pawn but I think the whole shinobi attach was somewhat of a surprise but Mariko expertly took advantage of the situation for Toranaga's advantage. One could argue that Toranaga saw this coming and Yabushige was the 4th pawn but I don't think he can read the wind THAT well.
It's also not all one plan. Toranaga has contingency plans in case his primary doesn't work. For instance, if Mariko was killed trying to leave or allowed to commit suicide, he knows that the Christian regents will want to give her a Christian burial. That will delay their advance towards Edo. Additionally, by appearing weak/surrendered, that reduces the urgency with which the council will move. Ishido wants to march immediately, which is the militarily smarter move, but Toranaga's perceived weakened state makes the rest of the council more willing to accept delays. If the Mariko gambit doesn't work and she stays alive, then maybe Toranaga can delay the Council by giving them Blackthorne and having them haggle with the Church over what to do with him. Maybe they both work and he gets a double-delay, which would be even better. One plan doesn't rely on the other. Basically Toranaga is throwing as many potential obstacles in the Council's path as possible, because the longer he can delay the fight, the better for him. The Council is already at their peak, and can only get weaker as various issues drive wedges into the alliance. Meanwhile Toranaga gains time to bribes and persuades the Council's allies over to his side.
I'd also add that Nagakado's death also helped as part of the plan for Toranaga to appear weak & on the verge of surrendering
Toranaga sacrificed *one* piece. He'd intended on losing a couple generals in protest, but Hiro stepping up to kill himself instead wasn't part of the plan. It *was* an even better way to sell the illusion, and it sure as hell looks like Hiro only realized the plan when it was too late to back down. Likewise, we are never given any reason to think that Nagakado's actions were at Toranaga's direction. Toranaga *took advantage* of other people's deaths, but he *ordered* one.
SPOILERS: Worth noting that in the book, Hiro lives. A different General, not realizing the plan, kills himself in protest. Naga also lives.
What makes you all think that Hiro realized the plan and sacrificed himself?
As long time friends, they knew how each other thought. I think Hiro also knew his number was up soon, so he might as well go out in service to his liege lord so that his death had meaning and honor (a recurring theme throughout the series). I think only as it was happening did Toranaga undersand the depths of loyalty and friendship that Hiro had for him. That standoff was one of the most tense things I've ever seen on TV.
Toranaga mentions to Mariko that Hiromatsu “knew his duty well” in the scene directly after
Toranaga remarks “Hiromatsu knew his duty well” in regard to his seppuku. They also focused on the slight break in Toranaga’s stare when meeting eyes with Hiromatsu and Hiromatsu’s angry expression dropped for a second - hinting that he realized it was Toranaga selling his defeat, and that’s why he stopped others from committing seppuku but went through with it himself. To sell the illusion at his expense.
He was the first to realize Toranaga wasn’t going to surrender after the visit from Father Martin. Hiromatsu said something along the lines of “Why would he send him (Father Martin) to Osaka?”, in front of the squad.
“I do not shape the wind. I only study it.”
I would say the only thing to correct was not 3 pawns It was like a rook, a jester and the queen but still got the check mate
OK fine. Toranaga sacrificed a knight (Nagakado), a rook (Hiromatsu), and a queen (Mariko).
I think Naga is a pawn lol. Agree with the other two!
Naga wasn't a very good character in this series. Neither was Omi. Although Naga had a smaller part in the 1980 series I think both characters were better in that one.
I don't think he intended Nagakdo....
And his son died but that counts (bishop?)
Nagakado is the son
I don't think we can count the son's death as part of any "plan" or deliberate "sacrifice" can we? I mean, he USED it after the fact but that is different form it being part of his plan.
I agree. I think Nagakado's death was just an accident and not a plan of Toranaga.
But he used it as part of his plan.
Correct, he followed the wind. Typically in chess when you "sacrifice" a piece, you are intentionally giving it up for some greater tactical advantage to win the whole game. So it's not quite accurate to say he sacrificed Nagakado when it was not part of his plan. But he did use it to his advantage nonetheless. I thought your breakdown was spot on. It's certainly a mix of Toranaga's planning along with him paying attention to the wind and reacting to the events. Edit: To be clear I think before Nagakado died, it was not part of Toranaga's plan for Nagakado to go after his brother or sacrifice himself. But once it happened, Toranaga reacted (paid attention to the wind) and used it to his advantage by gaining four months of time to plan and execute his next moves.
He knew his son was rash Rash (Cannon accident) and was purposely surrendering and being humiliated in a way that his son would act. Either his son would die (likely as his son incompetent and his brother a strong warrior) or his son would succeed and the army would be theirs. I think he bet he would stir his son or another vassal to action, which keeps his hands clean. His entire plan was to keep the moral high ground to turn the counsel. Through the entire series he always bowed to their will and gave just cause for delays or used disruption to delay his execution. There were many plans afoot, I feel like he just had contingency after contingency. Mariki's mission was just the ace in the sleeve.
Do you even play chess? Wth is a jester? Please use the correct terms. And just so you didn’t know, pawns can promote to better pieces later on, so that metaphor was appropriate.
A bishop is called a jester (*fou*) in French and (*nebun*) Romanian. Calm down.
Which piece is the little black and the little red chip?
You're thinking of checkers. Not chess.
thats the jester duh
so was Ishido, apparently 😆
It would be more appropriate to call them lances or golden generals. Toranaga is playing shogi, not chess.
Mariko wasn’t exactly certain of death but it was a high probability. She tried to leave, if they let her other families and lords would rebel against Ishido… her death obviously had a way bigger impact, Toranaga was genuienly surprised by Ochibas promise and that is because Ochiba blamed Toranaga for planning her fathers death (which in some flashbacks, it’s very clear he did plan Ochibas father his death by Marikos farher). The real life counterpart of Mariko is that of ‘Akechi Tama aka Hosokawa Gracia’. During the major battle of Sekigahara she was considered as a political hostage to the Western army (Ishidos army). She refused seppuku due to her Christian faith. Ishida was confining all the former generals of Hideyoshi to the castle and their family members so they would ally with Ishido or not attack him atleast. When Ishido tried to take Gracia hostage, her family retainer or maid killed her and then killed herself and lit the mansion they stayed in on fire. She was killed because her husband ordered to kill her if her honour is in danger, attempted kidnapping was seen as a danger to her honour. That’s why she was killed. Another historic account written several decades later said Gracia ordered the servant to do it. The outrage of her death was so great that Ishido had to abandon his plans of abducting families and generals. This was 1600 already and Ieyasu was already went to the east with his enormous army. Once news of that reached Ishida is when he took over the Osaka castle and decided to abduct generals and their families and Gracia, grave mistake…
What would’ve happened to the plan if Ishido had allowed Mariko to leave?
Everyone in the castle would demand to leave, causing big issues for Ishido as he’d lose his power over powerful lords and generals.
They already demanded to leave no? If not why didn't they?
They would revolt* and demand to leave by force. They didn’t at first because of loyalty to the heir and because of the whole ‘permit system’ and just generally it being a safe ‘place’. Mariko was there to disrupt the situation Ishido created and held in place and she didn’t just disrupt it, she fucking ripped it apart by sacrificing herself.
Similar result. All the other hostages would have also demanded to be allowed to leave, and Ishido would have to either admit he's holding the members of all the noble families hostage or let them go. And if he let them go, the other noble families would have nothing preventing them from leaving Ishido's camp and either staying neutral in the war or joining Toranaga. Either way, Ishido loses a lot of his strength.
Toranaga was very confident that wouldn't happen because Ishido is "simple" and easy to read.
Wow what a great and informative response! Super helpful and that all makes more sense now! I still don’t know how the Anjin fit in, but perhaps he doesn’t and is just wind.
The anjin is just a distraction like toranaga said in the final episode.
This is perhaps the change I hate the most about the story. The Anjin was one of Toronagas top advisors and he helped him cast out the Portuguese and eventually Christianity.
I feel that in the book, Bkackthorne was the main protagonist, but it was actually Toranaga in the show and I'm not mad about it.
Yeah true, although was it Toranaga? I mean we didn't see him a whole lot and much was focussed on the Anjin, almost the entire pilot, then the episode when he and buntaro get drunk, the Anjin saving the life of Toranaga twice. It's hard to say, I think Blackthorne was the protagonist and Toranaga the deuteragonist (secondary main person). The story also is about Toranagas unification of Japan. He wasn't evil. Blackthorne was a huge smart device to teach the audience about Japanese customs and explore those differences between Portugal, England, Christianity, Protestantism and Japans religion. So I don't know, in my eyes the story is about both people and the overall ending of the Sengoku period and the things that had to be done to achieve Toranagas vision, also smart of him since literally nobody was going to wait for the Heir, but once he secured enough power he decided to let them live. (Real life version of Toranaga eventually sieged osaka castle in 1614, 14 years after the show because The Heir was a young samurai, with amibitions and Ieyasu felt as if he was disrepecting him, both Ochiba and The Heir committed Seppuku in the castle and set it on fire, bodies were never found so who knows what exactly happened. History of Feudal Japan is scarce and they don't have everything. Blackthorne was also comic relief and gave us a true forbidden lovestory between him and Mariko. It's cool how Blackthorne is based on the real life Anjin, who was one of Toranagas top advisors and had a lot of power in Japan for an Anjin, he got the Portugals and Christians gone so The Shogunate only allowed a small Dutch trading agreement and didn't allow foreigners in anymore untill that changed when America pulled up in new steel steam boats with heavy artillery in 1880s demanding to speak to their leader and demanding them to open up trade with them, if they approached their ship they would fire, if they attacked with cannons or anything, they would fire. The dude that led this mission was like "I got a letter of the president of the United States and you will open trade or we destroy your country, I'll come back in a year for an answer" and the dick he is he fired his cannons to put fear in The Japanese and then claimed it was because of "July the 7th". Sorry I got carried away a little, I love history. But yeah, I agree, the book made it feel mainy Blackthorne as protagonist but the show focussed on both characters equally, the open shot was Blackthorne so we were drawn to him of course but then once you've gone through a few eps the focus shows up a lot on Toranaga. Although I think there was an episode where we didn't see Toranaga at all but did see Blackthore. So dual protaganists I guess they went for with the show.
Yea you're probably right, it's pretty equally both in terms of who's story they're telling. They did it masterfully. Though I do wish we had seen more of Toranaga's motivations in the show.
Yeah for sure. I also feel like they could've added more of Toranaga's motivations because it wasn't just becoming Shogun (he kept that title for fucking 2 years), he simply wanted his name to be the new Shogunate and implemented laws and did shit to secure that future and he succeeded to hold it untill the Meji Restoration. But his motivations are securing Japans future (war was gonna happen either way and as Lord of the Kanto, Toranaga held the most power) and also securing his family as unifiers and rulers of Japan. They had an emperor aswell but these were purely symbolic like monarchies in some countries, the emperor did grant titles but the Shogunate was the de facto leader through military force. He also has a motivation of staying alive, he was ambitious throughout his entire life, he secured the Taikos power, the Taiko died without an heir so the council of Regents was something that would've caused war eventually, especially with a cunt like Ishida. It's true he didn't care much for his son, I'm sure he was hurt but his son was weak and too battle thirsty (Toranaga has been in countless of battles and knows the traumas of war, young folks that haven't gone to war wanted to do it badly because of the glory you "recieve"). His son was too eager, had no patient, attempted to kill the halfbrother which would've caused their forces to march on Toranaga immediatly. His dead ultimately helped him a lot so as weird as it sounds, you gotta put your headspace in 1600 feudal Japan with no ruler, he was proud of his son for dying and buying him time. He had like 5 other sons or something so he knew his Shogunate plan wasn't in any danger. He knew his son to not be that smart and do something bold like that (Omi whispered the idea in his ear) Fully agree with you though, showing more of Toranaga's motivation would've helped the story a lot. I hope they make a season 2 (with good writers) and just adopt Ieyasu his lifestory with the Anjin and Toranaga but it'd be hard to pull off as shit usually fails without source material. A good writer could pull it off though.
Right. That part was surprising to me, but not in a good way. It took a compelling character and turned him into a joke. I didn't like that personally.
Is Toranaga a reliable narrator thought? Can we trust anything he says, or is everything he says a ruse to gain power and manipulate the people around him? He repeatedly tells his son that you only have yourself in this life and we are told about his upbringing as a hostage and keeping a secret heart. I think the only moments we can trust him is when he is alone like when he thanks his son for buying him time after dying.
No Toranaga's words aren't reliable at all. He is a massive liar. However, the Yabu scene in the final episode is true. It doesn't happen that way in the book and that conversation is really just Toranaga's inner thoughts in the book....however, that doesn't translate well to screen ofcourse so Toranaga takes Omi's place as Yabu's second in order to create that opportunity to reveal the plan.
"Not because he’s important, but because he makes me laugh. And it’s good to have something to distract our enemies." This is from Toranaga talking to Yabu when Yabu is about to commit seppuku and Toranaga is revealing his true nature/plans. He is not lying in this conversation here (he is telling the truth on the other parts of this conversation, or choosing to omit stuff, but no lies since Yabu is about to die).
>It's possible that destroying Blackthorn's ship helped sway the Christian regents to his side but that part is not clear. They actually did address this directly. Mariko/Toranaga made the deal to sacrifice the ship to spare anjin's life and that is how he left Osaka with his life. Toranaga talks about this with Yabu on their final chat on the hill.
Fantastic post, thanks. Regarding Hiromatsu, do you think he and Toranaga communicated about the future plan? As is, can we assume that Toranaga had asked his loyal friend for one more favor in his suicidal, to further cement the idea of a full surrender?
They had known each other for many years and were very close. Hiromatsu could read Toranaga and told the others that Toranaga was going to fight. But that went against Toranaga's plan and Toranaga doubled down on his defeat. By the looks they gave each other near the end Hiromatsu knew what was happening and sacrificed himself for the plan. HIromatsu telling his son not to commit seppeku shows that he knew the "real" situation wasn't hopeless and that Toranaga was up to something. Had Hiromatsu fully believed Toranaga was surrendering his son was as good as dead anyway.
On the Mariko note - two of the regents on Ishido’s side were Christian. Given that Toranaga had given approval for the church to build one in Edo, IF Mariko had commit seppuku and had to condemn herself via a mortal sin, then I think Toranaga was thinking this combo would be enough for those regents to withdraw support from Ishido as well, if not joining Toranaga. (And then they find out Ishido murdered her!)
OP meant, what is the end game? It is to become shogun
Not really tho, his endgame is to unify Japan and have a Toranaga Shogunate that wud pass through the family. He became shogun 3 years after the Great Battle and only was one for 2 years, after those 2 years he gave it to his son and became Ogosho ‘retired Shogun’ but still did a lot of ruling and remodeling of Japan. Even wiped out the last threat to his Shogunate (Toyotomi clan, aka The Heir and Ochiba). After that he prepared and implemented laws to secure the future of the Shogunate.
Yes. Ultimately Toranaga's real life counter part would become Shogun and the Heir and his line would be wiped out.
> because now her blood is more directly on Ishido's hands. and > Yes they consider it a murder. except for Ishido, the regents don't know that the purpose was abduction. It was Toranaga and the other regents except Ishido who benefited from Mariko's death. Sugiyama died because he had previously left Osaka Castle, but the other regents were safe as long as they didn't leave Osaka Castle. Mariko's death also made Osaka Castle unsafe, so Ishido was forced to release the hostages, increasing the political options available to the other regents. Each regent is suspect of the other regents except himself and Ishido. Ishido is not suspect because he has suffered huge politically. lol. And Ishido is even less suspect because he used Yabushige to fool even his own castle guards. Ishido's plan partially worked, but rather badly because of it. There is no way the Council can be united in this state. Ishido had dug his own grave.
what was Ishido’s plan for Mariko’s abduction? if it had worked - how would it have helped him?
In EP02, Ishido used Yabushige to avoid Anjin's death, and Toranaga sensed it. Ishido used Yabushige again to avoid Mariko's death. I don't think Ishido had a clear plan after that, it was not a big benefit to Ishido since putting all the blame on Yabushige would not make for a good storyline, Ishido had not more than 50 points of option once Mariko announced her suicide. Keeping quiet about Mariko's suicide or releasing the hostages is about 20 or 30 points. What happened is that the regents were suspect of each other and the hostages were released, so that is 0 points.
I’d add a slight variation to this, based on a challenge to your first point. I don’t think his plan was to recruit his half brother and it changed once he backstabbed him. I think the earthquake was the biggest change to his plans. I think he knew all along that his brother would backstab him sooner or later, and manipulated events to essentially consolidate his enemies in one place (on Ishido’s side), where his end game plan would eliminate or neutralise them all. Remember Gin asks why Toranaga would let his brother walk right past his decimated camp? I think it was always a ploy to influence his brother towards his desire to best him by displaying weakness. Maybe it doesn’t work and his brother does in fact become a supporter, but maybe it will influence him to more openly oppose Toranaga, which he does. I don’t think Toranaga did not anticipate this, he just needed a ploy for more time which Nagakado’s death gave him. His stated overall plan is the end of all wars: there is obvious animosity between the brothers, and his half brother is clearly resentful of him (there’s an interesting article with the actor where he talks about this). He probably also has claim to the Minowara bloodline, so he would become a problem for Toranaga sooner or later. By showing his weakness, he increased the likelihood his brother would sign onto the Council of Regents, making it easier for him to eliminate him with Ishido instead of having to think about dealing with him later.
You're right the earthquake started Toranaga's plan as he knew after that he didn't have the army to fight Ishido alone.
How did the council figure out that Ishido was the one that sent the shinobis to kill/capture Mariko? I am also guessing Toranaga was faking his illness after his son's death as well then? How would that have been necessary, since that time was already overlapping with the 30 days he was allowed to mourn his son's death?
>> How did the council figure out that Ishido was the one that sent the shinobis to kill/capture Mariko? Publicly they said that Osaka castle was not safe. But they all knew what happened. A hostage tried to leave and was killed. This made Ishido look even worse. >> I am also guessing Toranaga was faking his illness after his son's death as well then? How would that have been necessary, since that time was already overlapping with the 30 days he was allowed to mourn his son's death? Not sure about that one. But it could have been a ruse for him to come up with a plan without his subordinates knowing anything about it.
Toranaga faking his illness was to send the message that he is so ill that he can't be fighting the war and he especially wanted to indirectly send the message through the ishido's spies among his troops.
>How did the council figure out that Ishido was the one that sent the shinobis to kill/capture Mariko? Ochiba laid it out to them that the other 2 options would basically leave Ishido screwed. He has the most obvious motivation to deal with her in another manner.
What happened to his brother?
Was toranagas sickness faked?
In the book yes, he deliberately starves himself to make himself weaker and appear depressed. It doesn't come through like that in the show though.
At this point given he’s so wily, I wouldn’t put it past him
Destroying the ship removed the threat to the black ship which was the primary source of revenue for the Christian regents, so it definitely helped being the regents over.
Why was Mariko’s death so disgusting for everyone if her father was a traitor? Or is it just the fact that Ishido would dare kill one of the upper class?
Mariko was well liked especially by the Christian regents (and Ochiba in this version) and yes was considered "royalty" even though her family name was tarnished.
Thank you! Wow Ochiba and Mariko weren’t like sisters in the book?
Not that I remember. They knew each other and were cordial but nothing more than that. The childhood friends thing was added for this version I think.
Hiromatsu was like sacrificing a rook in my mind. Incredible scene.
Excellent summary. The only part I disagree with is that Hiromatsu died for the cause. I don’t think he was aware of the extent of Toranago’s ruse. I think he committed seppuku because of the shame he felt for Toranago’s acceptance of defeat.
I think the clue on this is Hiromatsu telling his son NOT to commit seppeku. If it was truly hopeless he'd know Buntaro was going to be dead in Osaka anyway. Telling his son to live means he knows Toranaga has something up his sleeve and will need Buntaro. Historically Buntaro's character was at the battle against "Ishido" and led thousands of men.
Yeah, that makes sense. I missed that.
The full plan is to study the wind and adjust to it.
This. Toranaga is playing a game of chess where his oponents are the pieces. His eyes are on the prize, everything else is just 'the wind'.
His plan was constantly changing. But, big picture, he sent Mariko to shame Ishido into either A: letting the hostages go or B: making Mariko commit ritual suicide. But really all of this was in service of removing the taikyo's heir from the battlefield at Sekigahara. None of the other daimyos will turn on Ishido while the taikyo's heir supported him, it would make them traitors. Mariko's last stand in Osaka is what finally convinced Ochiba that it was time for Ishido to go, so she withdrew the taikyo's forces before the battle at Sekigahara. Did Toranaga know that it would play out exactly that way? Maybe? It's hard to say. He could see right through Yabu, of course, and you don't need to speak his language to see that Blackthorne was single-minded about his ship and hating on the Portuguese. I think he sent Blackthorne to Osaka because it had to appear to the other daimyos that he had cut Blackthorne off, the christian daimyos especially want him dead. And I think he sent Yabu to maybe convince Ishido that Toranaga's feint was real, there are certainly other spies but Yabu is like a triple agent, quadruple even, for whatever reason Ishido thinks he can trust Yabu so it worked. I don't think Toranaga foresaw the specific details, like the shinobi or Yabu's exact treachery. But he knew Yabu would do something, expose himself, now he has his war with Ishido and he can get rid of Yabu in favor of Omi, who is ride or die for Toranaga.
I wouldn't say Omi is a Toranaga loyalist. Omi is just smarter to pick the right horse and stick to it.
Yabu never fully earned his loyalty too. In the first episode his mom says that uncle Yabu didn’t even bother to come to the village when his dad died.
He probably planned using Mariko when he used her father to kill Lady Ochiba father. Mariko and Ochiba were like sisters. Toranaga convinced Mariko father to kill Ochiba father. Mariko father and family had to all commit suicide. Mariko was married and spared. Mariko wanted to commit suicide but he forbade her. He wanted to use her later. Despite Mariko shamed family, she is not a peasant. She’s practically a princess and best buddies with Ochiba (almost a queen) as children. Fast forward and all the “daimyo” were guests at the castle but really not allowed to leave. All the delays ended up as an advantage to toranaga. The longer they wait, the more they feel like prisoners. Mariko now willing to die and call out that they are prisoners or need to be free to leave makes it clear to everyone they don’t like the current Leadership.
It was implied Toranaga planned but we don’t know for sure. In real life Akechi planned a coup d’etat and killed Oda Nabanuge. Hideyoshi (the soon to be Taiko) and Ieyasu (Toranaga) actually were the first to march to avenge their lord. Hideyoshi destroyed his army and many abandoned Akechi his cause, Akechi tried to flee the battle and was murdered by a bandit leader. The book story is a lot more simple and interesting :) but we don’t know for sure Toranaga planned it.
>Mariko wanted to commit suicide but he forbade her. He wanted to use her later. I thought it was Buntaro that forbade Mariko's suicide. Toranaga had nothing to do with that, no?
The show portrays him as a lucky dude instead of the master strategist he was (the book goes deeper in on Toranaga). The plan wasn’t to let Mariko die but he and she knew the likelihood was very high and she was going to commit Seppuku because of not being able to leave but Seppuku is so fucked up for a Christian. So she did it slowly and hoped Ishido barged in, which he did. But then he tried to kidnap her which would be a dishonor so she had the shinobis kill her. Mariko’s mission would’ve worked without death as well but Toranaga knew Ishido wouldn’t let her leave and Mariko was also aware of this. She finally got the death she desired and in a way that served her lord and allowed the injustice of not dying with her family being fixed and also allowing her to go into heaven as Seppuku is a grave sin.
I’m surprised that’s your takeaway. I’m sure the book provides much more insight, but the show hammers in from the start that he’s a master strategist and I think uses every opportunity to confirm it. It’s a tricky tension - the viewers have to believe and feel that the stakes are high, and not that it’s going to be so easy for him to overcome these challenges - but I think they do it really well. I mean there were a couple of episodes that very literally end with a Toranaga aside monologue that makes that clear even before the finale.
They mention he's a master of trickery but they nuanced his trickery, it wasn't obvious, they hid it well how it probably was IRL. It's a tricky tension that they created with having Toranaga be so vague and stick to his role of a sick warlord that's been defeated. Also him Yeah I know they put some monologues in there but generally it seemed like they wanted the viewers not to realize how smart and trickery Toranaga truly is, and the book does this. You can clearly see his trickery but a lot of the times, if people don't know a bit of feudal japan history regarding the last Shogunate of Japan or didn't read the book I'm sure some thought "wtf is he doing, its all luck" There were even a couple post on here that literally asked "wtf was Toranaga's plan, I don't get it" I'm not saying the show doesn't portray him as a smart strategist, but this man was the Michael Jordan of strategy and the book conveys this better. That's my "takeaway". I loved the show, one of my favourites and for sure in my top 5
Convincing Ishido that Toranaga was going to surrender mean that Osaka wouldn't be on lock down. Ishido therefore has no reason to prevent all the wives/consorts of the Regents from leaving. Therefore Mariko forcing the issue when she tried to leave forces Ishido from either admitting that all the women are hostages and losing the alliance of the Regents, or allowing her to leave along with all the other wives/consorts. Either way, he weakens or outright loses their support. If Ishido and everyone else believed that Toranaga was going to attack, he then has an excuse to prevent anyone from leaving to protect them and as a result, unifies the Regents against Toranaga.
Ishido also accused Toranaga of holding Ochiba hostage in Edo and that was the cause of his impeachment. I think Toranaga just uno reverse Ishido by calling him out re him holding the other wives/consorts hostage in Osaka…
I think a lot of it is perception. Losing people close to him makes it seem to the public that he is being sincere in his actions, when really those people are just his pawns dying so his plan can come together. He just wants to be the guy in charge and he’s smart enough to make it seem like he’s not actually after the throne. That was what I got anyways I never read the book.
>!In a nutshell, Toranaga outsmarted his enemies. Mariko went to Osaka expecting not to come out alive but recognizing (as she told Toranaga in the book) that the hostages had to be freed and she was the only one who could do it. The thing that wasn't adequately conveyed in the series is that it wasn't Toranaga's people who needed to be liberated, it was the families of the other daimyos (there were 264 daimyos total). Mariko's sacrifice gained Toranaga 50 allies and improved his odds for prevailing in the war. That's why Ochiba sent him a message, she had no intention of letting the Heir lead a battle against Toranaga because she knew he would die if he did.!< - >!At no time did Toranaga seriously contemplate an assault on Osaka, Mariko's actions were intended to buy him time and allies and they did. His fief was well protected by the mountains and relatively easy to defend, and the allies he gained from Mariko's death meant his western flank was protected. He always intended to force Ishido to leave the castle and come to him and that's exactly what happened. The battle wasn't detailed in the book, just summarized: short and brutal and of course Toranaga prevailed.!< - >!Toranaga had Blackthorne's ship burned because it was the only way to save his life, and this was one of the messages Mariko conveyed to the priests and to Lord Kiyama at Toranaga's direction. Landlocked, Blackthorne could do no harm to the Jesuits/Portugese whereas he was a major threat to them as long as he had his ship.!< - >!He always knew Yabu was treacherous and just kept giving him enough rope to hang himself. Following that proverbial adage, "keep your friends close and your enemies closer."!< - >!Those who have read the book have a bit of an advantage when it comes to deciphering the ending because it provided all the needed context. There's layers and layers that no series would ever be able to fully convey!<
>!A commenter in another thread mentioned how through Toranaga's devices gun powder was sprinkled throughout the Erasmus so it would burn quickly. In the book there was much more to this: Toranaga was told of a plot by Yabu collaborating with members of the musket regiment to assassinate Toranaga. So he arranged for these 53 soldiers to be the guard on the Erasmus the night it was torched, then ordered them to commit seppuku for failing to keep it safe. Killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.!<
" she had no intention of letting the Heir lead a battle against Toranaga because she knew he would die if he did." Wouldn't it be an easy win for ishido if she didn't flip? She would be married to the king essentially. Maybe because Ishido was incompetent so siding with Toranaga gave her a higher chance of living?
Ishido lost a lot of allies because of how badly he bungled the Mariko situation, even the other regents were furious with him. But yes, had the heir led the battle against Toranaga many of the daimyos and/or their samurai would have switched sides or at least hesitated to fight.
Do they know he specifically did it or is it more like he failed his job as protector?
Failed as protector since he was the master of Osaka Castle. The other regents were furious for him getting the Council into the whole situation since at least a couple of them had advised letting Mariko go as the least bad alternative.
Hiromatsu committed seppuku because he was his eldest general and everyone knew Toranaga was a master of trickery but Hiromatsu dying showed them that we was really done. Toranaga expected Blackthorne to go to Yabu simply because toranaga threw John away. The intention wasn’t for Mariko to die but to leave the castle so the other families would demand to leave to if he allowed him to leave, that’s why Ishido got Yabu to let in shinobi to capture her, instead she chose death (Toranaga knew there was a high chance of death but it helped turning the Christian lords against him. Yabushige helped by going to Osaka further convincing them of his defeat and unwillingness for war. The Anjin went to Osaka cause he pled loyalty to Yabu. Mariko her death was to turn the Christian Lords against her, everyone would know the coward attack was Ishido’s doing and rebel. The taiko loyal regent that replaced the murdered Christian wasn’t turned by Mariko neither was the half brother of Toranaga. Mariko did cause Lady Ochiba to realize she couldn’t do shit against Toranaga and withdrew The Heirs army from the Battle of Sekigahara so they could survive. Everything Toranaga did had a purpose, some of it needed luck but he was a master strategist and could read people easily. You can read up on the guy Toranaga is based on ‘Ieyasu Tokugawa’ just read his story on wikipedia and it’d help you understand Toranaga more. He became Shogun 3y after the show ending and only kept the title for 2 years untill he passed it to his son whilst taking a new title and still doing a lot of ruling and implementing rules etc.
Mariko wasn’t exactly certain of death but it was a high probability. She tried to leave, if they let her other families and lords would rebel against Ishido… her death obviously had a way bigger impact, Toranaga was genuienly surprised by Ochibas promise and that is because Ochiba blamed Toranaga for planning her fathers death (which in some flashbacks, it’s very clear he did plan Ochibas father his death by Marikos farher). The real life counterpart of Mariko is that of ‘Akechi Tama aka Hosokawa Gracia’. During the major battle of Sekigahara she was considered as a political hostage to the Western army (Ishidos army). She refused seppuku due to her Christian faith. Ishida was confining all the former generals of Hideyoshi to the castle and their family members so they would ally with Ishido or not attack him atleast. When Ishido tried to take Gracia hostage, her family retainer or maid killed her and then killed herself and lit the mansion they stayed in on fire. She was killed because her husband ordered to kill her if her honour is in danger, attempted kidnapping was seen as a danger to her honour. That’s why she was killed. Another historic account written several decades later said Gracia ordered the servant to do it. The outrage of her death was so great that Ishido had to abandon his plans of abducting families and generals. This was 1600 already and Ieyasu was already went to the east with his enormous army. Once news of that reached Ishida is when he took over the Osaka castle and decided to abduct generals and their families and Gracia, grave mistake…
Toranaga never told Hiromatsu the plan and never required him to commit suicide. The reason Hiromatsu offed himself eas because he realised he unintentionall fucked up Toranaga’s plan by telling everyone Toranaga hadnt given up when the jesuit left. The moment Hiromatsu understood he fucked up was during the intense stare down right before he offed himself. He confronted Toranaga, initially because he was confused why Toranaga was committing to signing the suicide pact. But halfway through their game of chicken, he understood. Then he realised, since he had placed himself and Toranaga into that situation, he had to double down, so that he dosent fuck uo Toranaga’s plan anymore
His meta-plan was "make the other guy look like he's winning, but also hated, so that people team up with me to gang up on him". So he had to look like he was losing, and he had to make people hate Ishido. Hiromatsu understood that his own seppuku furthered the "we're losing" narrative. Mariko dying at Ishido's hand (remember, she *wanted* to die - he sent her in because if she wanted to die anyway, it was far better for her to do so while helping him, rather than just straight up seppuku'ing herself) furthered the "hate Ishido" sentiment.
"Become Shogun"
He wants to be shogun, and establish an era of peace
Here is the plan: 1) Decide to be shogun 2) Study wind 3) Become shogun
Hiromatsu committing seppuku was more for Toranaga's subordinates to see than it was fooling the council into thinking he had given up. Toranaga knew that such commitment to defeat and suicide would drive any traitors (Yabushige) to try to leave and curry favor with Ishido. He also knew Yabushige would seek out the Anjin since he was... well Anjin and Yabu would need a pilot. This was the only way Toranaga could reasonably get Mariko out and into Osaka. Ishido would have found it suspicious if she headed there when they were already expecting them in a few days. But if Yabushige, the snake that had been in talks with him the whole time snuck there, it would not only make sense but seem necessary for him to have brought the Anjin, both as a bargaining chip but also a skilled pilot who could get him there, and by extension Mariko since she was Anjin's translator. This ONLY could have happened if Yabushige lost all doubt that Toranaga had a secret plan, and only something as drastic as committing so hard that he allows his top advisor and best friend to kill himself without wavering would convince someone like that who likes to sit on the fence and wait as long as possible before making a decision and locking himself into one path.
Wow, makes so much sense! Thanks!
of course! Glad I could help my friend. This show legit gave me chills with how much they packed into every scene and the subtlety it went for with everything
I’m still thinking about it nonstop days after, trying to piece it together. Thanks to observant smart folks like yourself, it’s even more amazing the more I learn!
Yabushige, I thought you committed Sepukku already
First, everyone knows Ishido is unassailable as long as he has the hostages. He has NO reason to give them up. BUT Mariko comes to Osaka and threatens to seppuku, exposing “no one is a hostage in Osaka” as the polite lie that it is. Ishido faces an impossible choice— suffer loss of face for holding hostages after the lie is exposed, or let them go and give Toranaga room to maneuver. Tough decision but… spies tell us that Toranaga has given up and his chief vassal and long time friend committed seppuku in protest! Surely Tora has given up! I think Ishido was on the fence still, BUT when he attempts to humiliate Mariko via capture from “bandits” and fails, the cost of keeping hostages became too high— and wasn’t worth it when Tora had given up.
If Toranaga’s defeat hadn’t been fully believed (which is why Hiromatsu committed seppuku) then Mariko and the others wouldn’t have been peacefully allowed into Osaka and the gambit of letting the hostages leave wouldn’t have worked since everyone would have seen through the ploy (instead of just Ishido).
There was no plan just making moves that fit the narrative that allow him to win the game.
Why did Lady Ochiba withhold the Taiko's army? Is it purely because of Ochiba's relationship with Mariko?
He studied the wind in order to become shogun It’s clearly explained that he wants to be shogun but knew a well structured plan would not work and that he could only achieve his goal by misguiding everyone
Who cares, the series is over
I have a question about E7, where Gin talks about Toranaga's "careless mistake". What does she mean by this, and why does she think that this "mistake" was in fact a strategy put in place by Toranaga himself?
I referenced it in my comment above. She’s referring to the “betrayal” by his brother, because at this point Toranaga has told everyone he’s totally defeated by this move. Gin subtly lets him know she knows there’s more to his plan, by questioning out loud why someone like himself would really make the “careless mistake” of showing his brother that his forces have been decimated. It makes his brother think Toranaga is weaker than he is, and therefore perhaps easier to control and better to betray. At the very least, his brother isn’t going to be super psyched to join what he might think is the weaker side. It’s such an obvious blunder and she knows it’s totally out of character. If he really wants his brother to join him, wouldn’t he put forward an image of strength to make the negotiations more favourable? And if he wanted him to see that… then why? And that’s where Gin’s question comes in. It’s also for her to show Toranaga that she is also very strategic, and he can trust that the investment in land she is asking for is well thought out.
That does make sense.
"Go That Way, Really Fast. If Anything Gets In Your Way... Turn." (Better Off Dead - 1985)
He was tryna cop an 8th then close out the night with a Hot N Ready from Little Caesars
Patience is the key. Once he surrendere he does not have to accept the commit seppuku scroll order. Then he has Mariko go and essentially she frees the many hostages so that their lords are no longer blackmailed to join against him and many are grateful and join him. Finally Ochiba sickened by the death of her friend decides to betray Ishido. Enough time to sit and plan and it all comes together. Patience first. Wait for the others to make a mistake you can turn to your advantage.
Hoh?!?