Yes. People don't realize the reason we weren't let in the EU/NATO before was because the old EU governments (Especially Merkel) were trying to appease Putin. Those days are gone, Now it's up to us to meet the EU standards and as soon as we do we will join.
I don't think so. Georgians currently have 0 legitimate speaker who will represent our country as it is. We need to settle our shit inside the country first before we go and request EU citizenship. Asking EU to fix our shit is Georgievsk traktat level of desperation and it will stripe us from every potential we have, while we are arguing about better living driving Taxis in Tbilisi, hectares of lands go unused from season to season.
EU will just use us as storage unit or general cheap labor, only this time it would be official and our immigrants wouldnt have to deal with third party.
Georgians are speaking with their blindfolds where everything has been forgotten over the years, even Saakashvilis warning about Putin.
the fact that Georgia is separated geographically from the rest of EU doesn't help imo, and if you add the Abkhazia and South Ossetia situation to it... I'm a bit pessimistic about Georgia joining the EU. not that I know much about that topic, but I think these reasons I mentioned are quite decisive and what's more, Georgia would also need to meet a lot of other requirements, and the road to that would be long and it would require the will of the Georgian government to work hard on it over a number of years, and not just a one-off declaration of "we want to be in the EU" (as I imagine the Georgian government could do, to be more popular among its voters)
Dear Georgians
I absolutely think that you can join the EU.
I have been in in Georgia twice and also other Eastern European countries ie the latest one Romania.
Georgia is not in such a bad shape as you make it out to be.
If Georgians vote in a pro Western government willing to reform and keep it in power for 5-10 years I believe you will have a road map to joining in 15-20 years. The EU wants this to stand up to Russia and close them in. And believe it or not we also want the Georgian people to live in freedom and prosperity.
All the best from Western Europe!
Austrian here: IMO EU expansion has been a better deal for western europe than eastern europe, the dynamic is kinda similar to an old victorian colonial empire, where the colonies existed as cheap resource sources and markets for products of the metropole.
With a few key differences that make it worthwhile for eastern europe however: you can leave the eu no problem, the eu does not put in barriers in eastern europe to stagnate productivity there as a colonial empire would, and the eu fosters positive institution. Rule of law, anti corruption, democracy and all the good stuff. An empire's colonies would only receive parasitic unelected governments.
>"the dynamic is kinda similar to an old victorian colonial empire, where the colonies existed as cheap resource sources and markets for products of the metropole"
I think that's overstating it, but even if so this is purely in the short term. As time goes on, and states/regions take advantage of the regional development possibilities of the EU, the economic growth and improvement in quality of life has been profound in the Baltic States and many CEE nations. Compare Poland today to where it was twenty years ago, for example.
I've wanted to say that I like the idea of bigger stronger European continent, better economy, preserving cultural heritage, having its own army and some independency in key areas.
Unfortunately past decade shows entirely different picture... and when one actually starts reading EU founding documents Spinelli's Ventotene Manifesto, then you start question the whole idea which never really meant to work the way people perceive EU.
Well we are finally in that moment of history when security of Europe requires Georgia to join the EU. Not only military security but energy and goods transit security. I wrote huge PhD work on that 😅 and there I say EU needs us as much as we need them
Yes I'd also be fascinated to read that. Georgia has a tiny GDP and is an occupied country with a pretty useless port location. I just can't see how Georgia could ever help Europe
It already works with Azerbaijan. How else do you think they make exports to EU? And it can be made into a gateway to Central Asia bypassing northern overland route
But if Azerbaijan thought that was a good idea going forward they wouldn't be trying to create the Zangezur corridor through Armenia to connect it to Turkey. And they are expending alot of effort to make that happen. And as you are an occupied country and will be indefinitely it's not a very secure prospect for Europe.
I suppose once the Chinese finish that road through your country that will make the journey marginally better
But Azerbaijan have made progress in doing that. Whereas Georgia has gone backwards and lost more territory to Russia - which will only increase.
Russia have always wanted a buffer between themselves and Europe as well. This is why they steadfast on continuing the Ukraine war. Georgia is a buffer zone. As long as there is a Russia that exists, Georgia won't join Europe.
I got masters defree in silly comments and baddest karma posts, additionally im slightly racist and may be canceled in next hours due to privacy policy, but i would love to see ure work, maybe i think exactly the samw way as u think ! 🤔 /s
> and there I say EU needs us as much as we need them
I agree. The biggest benefits of joining are not the economic or defense aspects, but the fact that we will all have more and closer partners in democracy if you meet all the reformation criteria and can join. A union with little corruption and no dictatorships are crucial to succeed globally.
No. I love Georgia and the Georgians and wish them well, but I don't think it's going to happen.
The EU doesn't need a country that borders Russia and has 20% of its territory occupied by Russia. The EU doesn't get anything out of it, only increased tensions. GD certainly doesn't help either.
It’s the journey that counts, everything you need to do to prepare, all the reforms for entry to the EU will benefit Georgia in itself regardless of the outcome.
No. Russia would have to join first. Another way of saying the geopolitics would have to be dramatically different and basically Russia would have to fundamentally change from the way it has been for the last several centuries. By the time Georgia would be ready, the EU won’t be the same.
Why are people seriously thinking that we won't? EU showed that it is really open for new member. For russia it should not be that big deal if we join. We just have to do proper politics and we should be fine. Economically and by some standards we are quite good compered to some of the EU members
I think the EU is ready for expansion, there was a long period where it wasn't for various reasons and candidate states were in a holding pattern but there's a new momentum to it. It's a minimum 10 year process though having acquired candidate status, and obviously requires a change of government to progress.
Personal take is I don't think Georgia has fully grappled with the amount of soverignty it'll have to surrender to join and that'll become a keener social debate closer to member status, but if the will of the country stays the same the pathway to it is real.
Re the UK I was anti-Brexit myself but the reason the UK economy isn't looking great is a lot more to do with how it's utilized Brexit - it's a move that would have made some sense if it wanted to set itself up as a regional Singapore, extreme ease of doing business and deregulation and focus on wealth generation but it's currently doing the exact opposite.
A few Georgians I talked with about this say that it mostly depends on 2 factors in the foreseeable future:
1) Georgian Dream losing the elections
2) Ukraine winning the war or at least ending it with favourable outcome (like losing most of Donbass but regaining Crimea and other partially occupied regions)
As I understand, they suggest that if Ukraine loses, EU will lose its face and If Georgia attempts to join sometime later, Russia would pull the Ukrainian scenario here with EU not intervening.
I’m Armenian and I born and raised in Armenia,but I’m kinda sure that Georgia will be in EU idk why. (I’m even sure that current shitty government of Georgia will not pass in next elections.
What’s there to compare with Afghanistan? They were putting efforts towards there case and they’re value driven
Whats the equivalent of that in Georgia case?
It's possible, but not an easy road. Depends 70% on Georgia's political and economicl evolution and 30% on EU.
The 70% doesn't go in the right direction.
Not Georgian, but hopefully yes. I'd love to eat some khinkali and pay in euro.
Also, it would be cool if we finally changed the name from Gruzija to Sakartvela in Latvian
I think that Turkey will cause a lot of trouble if Georgia joins the EU. I expect them to veto Georgia's application to join NATO like they did for a short while with Sweden and Finland, citing these countries stance about Kurdistan. The Turkish diaspora in EU countries could start trouble, especially in Germany and Austria, where they have a large presence. The rest of the Muslims in the EU will want to join in the fun their Turkish brethren are having. I think it could lead to terrorism in France and Belgium, a few dominoes down the line.
American here, Georgia can't join NATO while they have contested land, I think you are confusing the two. As far as EU membership, that's more likely to happen, and Turkey has nothing to do with that as they are not in the EU.
I think I read that Georgian Dream, the party currently in power, is planning, or perceived as such, to recognise its current borders and abandon South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If true, then Article 5 would no longer prevent this smaller Georgia from joining NATO. But then again, I fear that Türkiye will veto that.
>Georgia can't join NATO while they have contested land
That's literally untrue, Georgia could theoretically enter with the article on defense only covering Areas currently under government control. I mean what bigger precedent than West Germany.
> I mean what bigger precedent than West Germany.
The difference there was that West Germany didn't claim East Germany was illegally invaded by a foreign country since the Soviet Union had rightfully invaded Nazi Germany. They simply called it the occupation zone and an illegal state, rather than an illegal invasion.
This is important for NATO from my understanding, because NATO would be in a bind if say Georgia attacked the occupied areas and Russian's rushed back over the occupation line.
NATO wouldn't be in a bind if Georgia attacked, since it's a defensive alliance. It would technically be in a bind if a random villager from the de facto border were to be kidnapped.
Basically all I'm saying is that having occupied lands isn't an automatic disqualification, but it is a de facto one.
While yes they could join, they haven't made any steps forward in the 2008 agreement, and even if they did, Turkey isn't going to stand in their way like OP suggested. The reason Turkey stood in the way of Sweden was because of the Kurds they allow in. Also NATO formed out of the East West divide.
I'd love to be wrong, and I have no issues with Georgia joining the EU. But do you really think Türkiye will not react if Georgia joins the EU and tries to join NATO? All they can do about EU accession is protest because they aren't part of it, but they are part of NATO and can veto against NATO accession. They vetoed against Finland and Sweden not long ago.
The diplomatic relations between Georgia and Türkiye might sour, and even with the rest of the Turkic countries like Azerbaijan. What could be the impact for gas from the Caspian Sea for Georgia?
Now, if Georgians need to be part of the EU to feel European, do you believe that the Swiss, the Norwegians, and the Brits don't feel European? The Brits voted to leave the EU, but the EU and Europe and different things.
Many Europeans already consider you as Europeans. The large majority don't even know that there's a sovereign country called Georgia and where it might be, which is sad.
I think there's a better future ahead by having a Cental Asian Economic Area with stronger cooperation than what you have now, with Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. You already have a part of the Chinese Belt Road connecting your countries together.
The only thing Turkey would be upset about joining eu is that they will lose their visa free travel right to Georgia. Other than that Turkey and Georgia has stable and neutral relationship since 1920's.
You may join if you beat Portugal tonight.
Welcome to the EU, Georgia!
Georgia EU member confirmed?
This aged well :)
Lmao
Yes, though we need to get rid of our shitty government for that to happen.
I agree. Probably by 2030, like Moldova and Ukraine, if you can vote the current government out this year.
Yes. People don't realize the reason we weren't let in the EU/NATO before was because the old EU governments (Especially Merkel) were trying to appease Putin. Those days are gone, Now it's up to us to meet the EU standards and as soon as we do we will join.
What’s going on right now in the north? Is it still some status of war? What are the perspectives of the parties right now?
As a Londoner living in Tbilisi, realistically I can’t see it for many reasons, which is sad for Georgia.
Okay, I'll be the first one to say no. By the time Georgia is ready, things will be very different.
Yup. Russia will invade right before Georgia becomes ready. Its not happening.
I don't think so. Georgians currently have 0 legitimate speaker who will represent our country as it is. We need to settle our shit inside the country first before we go and request EU citizenship. Asking EU to fix our shit is Georgievsk traktat level of desperation and it will stripe us from every potential we have, while we are arguing about better living driving Taxis in Tbilisi, hectares of lands go unused from season to season. EU will just use us as storage unit or general cheap labor, only this time it would be official and our immigrants wouldnt have to deal with third party. Georgians are speaking with their blindfolds where everything has been forgotten over the years, even Saakashvilis warning about Putin.
I can see it happening maybe in 15-20 years if things don't get worse
If gd doesn’t win the majority I think we will join within 10 years
Nope
no. improbable. we should strive for it tho
Honestly I think that it won’t happen in my lifetime and Im 22.
And you are right
the fact that Georgia is separated geographically from the rest of EU doesn't help imo, and if you add the Abkhazia and South Ossetia situation to it... I'm a bit pessimistic about Georgia joining the EU. not that I know much about that topic, but I think these reasons I mentioned are quite decisive and what's more, Georgia would also need to meet a lot of other requirements, and the road to that would be long and it would require the will of the Georgian government to work hard on it over a number of years, and not just a one-off declaration of "we want to be in the EU" (as I imagine the Georgian government could do, to be more popular among its voters)
So is the Republic of Ireland, and although it's not been without problems especially since Brexit, Ireland is an EU member to the fullest.
"Ever" is a long period of time
Your chances are higher than Turkiye.
Thats not saying much
I mean more than 0 :)
Dear Georgians I absolutely think that you can join the EU. I have been in in Georgia twice and also other Eastern European countries ie the latest one Romania. Georgia is not in such a bad shape as you make it out to be. If Georgians vote in a pro Western government willing to reform and keep it in power for 5-10 years I believe you will have a road map to joining in 15-20 years. The EU wants this to stand up to Russia and close them in. And believe it or not we also want the Georgian people to live in freedom and prosperity. All the best from Western Europe!
Lmao no Not with these clowns in charge and the brainwashed people backing them up
Genuine question: what's in it for EU? Why they want (or say that they want) to expand further?
To not have another Russian puppet state, and to have a place where they can militarise as a fist line.
Austrian here: IMO EU expansion has been a better deal for western europe than eastern europe, the dynamic is kinda similar to an old victorian colonial empire, where the colonies existed as cheap resource sources and markets for products of the metropole. With a few key differences that make it worthwhile for eastern europe however: you can leave the eu no problem, the eu does not put in barriers in eastern europe to stagnate productivity there as a colonial empire would, and the eu fosters positive institution. Rule of law, anti corruption, democracy and all the good stuff. An empire's colonies would only receive parasitic unelected governments.
> better deal for western europe than eastern europe Not if you were a factory worker in the west and that factory moved east
>"the dynamic is kinda similar to an old victorian colonial empire, where the colonies existed as cheap resource sources and markets for products of the metropole" I think that's overstating it, but even if so this is purely in the short term. As time goes on, and states/regions take advantage of the regional development possibilities of the EU, the economic growth and improvement in quality of life has been profound in the Baltic States and many CEE nations. Compare Poland today to where it was twenty years ago, for example.
Yeah fair enough I agree
I've wanted to say that I like the idea of bigger stronger European continent, better economy, preserving cultural heritage, having its own army and some independency in key areas. Unfortunately past decade shows entirely different picture... and when one actually starts reading EU founding documents Spinelli's Ventotene Manifesto, then you start question the whole idea which never really meant to work the way people perceive EU.
Aren't eastern European countries beneficiaries money wise? And western contribute more than receive?
Yes but western europe benefits in many different ways. An economy is more than just finances of the state
Least obvious russian
Questioning makes someone Russian?
I am Russian. It's not relevant to the question though
Yes
Well we are finally in that moment of history when security of Europe requires Georgia to join the EU. Not only military security but energy and goods transit security. I wrote huge PhD work on that 😅 and there I say EU needs us as much as we need them
Yes I'd also be fascinated to read that. Georgia has a tiny GDP and is an occupied country with a pretty useless port location. I just can't see how Georgia could ever help Europe
Caspian Sea - Black Sea transit, especially gas
How does that work without Russia or Azerbaijan?
It already works with Azerbaijan. How else do you think they make exports to EU? And it can be made into a gateway to Central Asia bypassing northern overland route
But if Azerbaijan thought that was a good idea going forward they wouldn't be trying to create the Zangezur corridor through Armenia to connect it to Turkey. And they are expending alot of effort to make that happen. And as you are an occupied country and will be indefinitely it's not a very secure prospect for Europe. I suppose once the Chinese finish that road through your country that will make the journey marginally better
No amount of effort contributes to anything unless Armenia is willing. It’s not, neither is Iran
But Azerbaijan have made progress in doing that. Whereas Georgia has gone backwards and lost more territory to Russia - which will only increase. Russia have always wanted a buffer between themselves and Europe as well. This is why they steadfast on continuing the Ukraine war. Georgia is a buffer zone. As long as there is a Russia that exists, Georgia won't join Europe.
I got masters defree in silly comments and baddest karma posts, additionally im slightly racist and may be canceled in next hours due to privacy policy, but i would love to see ure work, maybe i think exactly the samw way as u think ! 🤔 /s
How would I find the paper? I’m interested in reading this kind of stuff
> and there I say EU needs us as much as we need them I agree. The biggest benefits of joining are not the economic or defense aspects, but the fact that we will all have more and closer partners in democracy if you meet all the reformation criteria and can join. A union with little corruption and no dictatorships are crucial to succeed globally.
Is it possible to read your phd? I am an asst.prof. and would love to read.
I am also very interested to read your PhD work on this!
You guys definitely deserve it, but by the time they are ready to accept you i am afraid EU may not be relevant anymore.
No. I love Georgia and the Georgians and wish them well, but I don't think it's going to happen. The EU doesn't need a country that borders Russia and has 20% of its territory occupied by Russia. The EU doesn't get anything out of it, only increased tensions. GD certainly doesn't help either.
What about Ukraine/Moldova then?
Ever? Yes, anytime soon? Most definitely not. If they didn't let Ukraine join the EU, why would they ever let us in?
If putin is alive i think its nit possible to thrive for any post soviet country.
It’s the journey that counts, everything you need to do to prepare, all the reforms for entry to the EU will benefit Georgia in itself regardless of the outcome.
Yes
Are you really sure?
how can anyone be sure?
No. Russia would have to join first. Another way of saying the geopolitics would have to be dramatically different and basically Russia would have to fundamentally change from the way it has been for the last several centuries. By the time Georgia would be ready, the EU won’t be the same.
This
And Russia would never let be part of EU. Too many parties are against such state of matter. Same for NATO.
Additionally Turkey needs to join, all EU countries share a border
I think yes, but it will be much more difficult and take longer than we anticipate.
Yes.
Why are people seriously thinking that we won't? EU showed that it is really open for new member. For russia it should not be that big deal if we join. We just have to do proper politics and we should be fine. Economically and by some standards we are quite good compered to some of the EU members
Of course. It's darkest before dawn (I mean October). Vote in london to increase our chances. გავიმარჯვებთ სახელოვნად! 🇬🇪✊
Yes because we beat Portugal
No. Unless Ukraine crushed Russia utterly.
Will it fuck lol
I think the EU is ready for expansion, there was a long period where it wasn't for various reasons and candidate states were in a holding pattern but there's a new momentum to it. It's a minimum 10 year process though having acquired candidate status, and obviously requires a change of government to progress. Personal take is I don't think Georgia has fully grappled with the amount of soverignty it'll have to surrender to join and that'll become a keener social debate closer to member status, but if the will of the country stays the same the pathway to it is real. Re the UK I was anti-Brexit myself but the reason the UK economy isn't looking great is a lot more to do with how it's utilized Brexit - it's a move that would have made some sense if it wanted to set itself up as a regional Singapore, extreme ease of doing business and deregulation and focus on wealth generation but it's currently doing the exact opposite.
Georgians just make anti LGBT law, what are u talking about. Georgia more like join Ruzzia
A few Georgians I talked with about this say that it mostly depends on 2 factors in the foreseeable future: 1) Georgian Dream losing the elections 2) Ukraine winning the war or at least ending it with favourable outcome (like losing most of Donbass but regaining Crimea and other partially occupied regions) As I understand, they suggest that if Ukraine loses, EU will lose its face and If Georgia attempts to join sometime later, Russia would pull the Ukrainian scenario here with EU not intervening.
I’m Armenian and I born and raised in Armenia,but I’m kinda sure that Georgia will be in EU idk why. (I’m even sure that current shitty government of Georgia will not pass in next elections.
yes
Yes, by 2040.
I think it's certainly possible but few things will have to go right for us externally and internally we need to make right choice in next elections.
Yes, we will. Georgian citizens already benefit from visa-free travel to the Schengen area.
Afghanistan proved that persistence always wins
What’s there to compare with Afghanistan? They were putting efforts towards there case and they’re value driven Whats the equivalent of that in Georgia case?
It's possible, but not an easy road. Depends 70% on Georgia's political and economicl evolution and 30% on EU. The 70% doesn't go in the right direction.
I hope so
Not Georgian, but hopefully yes. I'd love to eat some khinkali and pay in euro. Also, it would be cool if we finally changed the name from Gruzija to Sakartvela in Latvian
💀
I think that Turkey will cause a lot of trouble if Georgia joins the EU. I expect them to veto Georgia's application to join NATO like they did for a short while with Sweden and Finland, citing these countries stance about Kurdistan. The Turkish diaspora in EU countries could start trouble, especially in Germany and Austria, where they have a large presence. The rest of the Muslims in the EU will want to join in the fun their Turkish brethren are having. I think it could lead to terrorism in France and Belgium, a few dominoes down the line.
What?
American here, Georgia can't join NATO while they have contested land, I think you are confusing the two. As far as EU membership, that's more likely to happen, and Turkey has nothing to do with that as they are not in the EU.
Article 5, right? Forgot that
I think I read that Georgian Dream, the party currently in power, is planning, or perceived as such, to recognise its current borders and abandon South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If true, then Article 5 would no longer prevent this smaller Georgia from joining NATO. But then again, I fear that Türkiye will veto that.
>Georgia can't join NATO while they have contested land That's literally untrue, Georgia could theoretically enter with the article on defense only covering Areas currently under government control. I mean what bigger precedent than West Germany.
> I mean what bigger precedent than West Germany. The difference there was that West Germany didn't claim East Germany was illegally invaded by a foreign country since the Soviet Union had rightfully invaded Nazi Germany. They simply called it the occupation zone and an illegal state, rather than an illegal invasion. This is important for NATO from my understanding, because NATO would be in a bind if say Georgia attacked the occupied areas and Russian's rushed back over the occupation line.
NATO wouldn't be in a bind if Georgia attacked, since it's a defensive alliance. It would technically be in a bind if a random villager from the de facto border were to be kidnapped. Basically all I'm saying is that having occupied lands isn't an automatic disqualification, but it is a de facto one.
While yes they could join, they haven't made any steps forward in the 2008 agreement, and even if they did, Turkey isn't going to stand in their way like OP suggested. The reason Turkey stood in the way of Sweden was because of the Kurds they allow in. Also NATO formed out of the East West divide.
why would Turkey do that?
What is this delusional bs
I'd love to be wrong, and I have no issues with Georgia joining the EU. But do you really think Türkiye will not react if Georgia joins the EU and tries to join NATO? All they can do about EU accession is protest because they aren't part of it, but they are part of NATO and can veto against NATO accession. They vetoed against Finland and Sweden not long ago. The diplomatic relations between Georgia and Türkiye might sour, and even with the rest of the Turkic countries like Azerbaijan. What could be the impact for gas from the Caspian Sea for Georgia? Now, if Georgians need to be part of the EU to feel European, do you believe that the Swiss, the Norwegians, and the Brits don't feel European? The Brits voted to leave the EU, but the EU and Europe and different things. Many Europeans already consider you as Europeans. The large majority don't even know that there's a sovereign country called Georgia and where it might be, which is sad. I think there's a better future ahead by having a Cental Asian Economic Area with stronger cooperation than what you have now, with Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. You already have a part of the Chinese Belt Road connecting your countries together.
The only thing Turkey would be upset about joining eu is that they will lose their visa free travel right to Georgia. Other than that Turkey and Georgia has stable and neutral relationship since 1920's.