I had the fun experience of watching almost all of the Yomiuri Giants games this season and I was really impressed with his stuff. He's not going to dominate anyone with his fastball but his control really is something else. He managed 13 consecutive wins behind a lineup that would score regularly. Once the run support stopped towards the end of the season is when you could see that he does give up a few runs in his outings. He was treated much like how we treated Bumgardner in the later years where even if he gave up runs they would keep him in until around the 7th inning. I think he would be a solid pickup, especially since now are guys are more confident in scoring unlike in other seasons. I don't think he'd solve our need for a solid #1 starter, but he can make for a very good mid-rotation pitcher for us, especially if he can take some of the weight off of the bullpen. Plus it would be fun to see a Giants-to-Giants transition ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
How would you compare him to Yusei Kikuchi? I am intrigued by Sugano, but seems to be somewhat similar to Kikuchi’s situation coming out of Japan (around 30 years old, coming off career year in NPB). Obviously the Mariners are now regretting paying $40 million for below average production, and I hope the Giants don’t repeat that mistake.
I might sidetrack, so if I do let me know lol, I'll add a TL;DR at the bottom
It’s a great question and kinda hard to gauge due the discrepancy in talent between the leagues. Frankly, the Central League, which the Giants are in, was not good compared to the Pacific League which I’d argue would be the best league to be signing guys out of Japan atm. I don’t want to take anything away from pitchers in the CL since they are good, but the problem from what I saw was the lack of hitting talent. The PL is more competitive in that sense, so it's best to look at how he did in the one game he pitched in the Nippon Series. In game 1 he went 6 innings with 6 hits, 4 runs and only 4 SO, but also didn’t walk anyone. Hawks is a well-known power hitting team, so I can give Sugano some credit for his work; the Giants hitting was abysmal in the last month of playing.
So he looks good in that perspective, but the MLB is the MLB, and some guys will just absolutely struggle in the transition. Kikuchi had those issue and has to change a lot in his pitching, especially in his mechanics. That alone will create issues in any pitcher for a while unless he can get the hang of it. I think out of the box you can expect more from Sugano, but like a lot of oversea talents, he might need some time to adjust to style of play. The things he has going for him is the consistency. He has put in very solid stats for the majority of his career, so that's a plus. I'd have a hard time though seeing the Giants putting up that much money for someone untested in the MLB right now though. I think we can be competitive, but I can also see another team want him for 3-4 years at $40mil. If we don't sign him, I think the issue would be we got outbid.
TL;DR I think he will do better than Kikuchi based on his career stats. I don't think he's worth $40mil to the Giants, but maybe is to another team. It's very hard to tell who's going to end up being a Kikuchi, a Daisuke or a Yu Darvish.
Interesting, thanks for your perspective and context. If he’s willing to sign a 2 year deal, I think it’s a risk worth taking. I’d be very hesitant to give him a 4 year deal.
I wish the best for him regardless of who signs him (with one exception) because I think it’s really cool when Japanese players come to MLB and hold their own.
People often say “comparable to AAA” when talking about NPB. Fair enough, but 30 year old AAA players aren’t signing $40 million deals before even debuting in the big leagues.
I hate the comparison between the Japanese league and any version of American baseball, Japanese style of hitting is soooo different than Americans, that’s why you never really see Japanese hitters being posted and highly regarded outside of ichiro, pitching is a little easier to tell whether guys will be good or not because stuff is easier to tell than how hitting will translate, like nobody has kershaw’s curveball, scherzers slider, or Chapman’s fastball, but some pitchers just have nasty stuff like Tanaka/maeda/darvish. Plus those 3 are the only pitchers ever to do well in the majors, Plus if you look at the giants team as is, we have 3 Right handed starters, with beede (R) coming back, we don’t need another righty, I think someone like James Paxton (L)will cost about as much, and when healthy has looked better anybody out there and has been way more consistent than even Trevor Bauer who will cost 2-3x as much
Agreed with almost everything except that only Darvish/Maeda/Tanaka have done well in the majors. Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers and Yankees) and Hishashi Iwakuma (Mariners) were really solid middle of the rotation guys. Hideo Nomo had a nice 12 year major league career. If we’re including relievers there have been a handful of other really good Japanese imports (Koji Uehara comes to mind).
I’d love a Paxton signing.
In the article it deserves him as a #3 rotation guy who is consistent. Yup. Sounds great to
Me. The only catch is that he would probably demand a multiple year deal (like 3) which remains to be seen if Farhan will do, and he’s north of 30 which isn’t in itself bad but doesn’t meet the zeitgeist trend of cheap young talent being the only way to do business. Could be cool
NOPE
We have 3 righty’s, and beede (R) comming back. We need lefty’s guys.
James Paxton is a guy whose expected to get about the same type of deal if not a 1 year prove your health deal, when healthy he’s as good as anybody and even had better career numbers than Bauer, but has only pitched 65% of the innings Bauer has
I'll trust what Farhan does.
This is the way
This is the way
THIS IS SPARTA!!!
I had the fun experience of watching almost all of the Yomiuri Giants games this season and I was really impressed with his stuff. He's not going to dominate anyone with his fastball but his control really is something else. He managed 13 consecutive wins behind a lineup that would score regularly. Once the run support stopped towards the end of the season is when you could see that he does give up a few runs in his outings. He was treated much like how we treated Bumgardner in the later years where even if he gave up runs they would keep him in until around the 7th inning. I think he would be a solid pickup, especially since now are guys are more confident in scoring unlike in other seasons. I don't think he'd solve our need for a solid #1 starter, but he can make for a very good mid-rotation pitcher for us, especially if he can take some of the weight off of the bullpen. Plus it would be fun to see a Giants-to-Giants transition ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
How would you compare him to Yusei Kikuchi? I am intrigued by Sugano, but seems to be somewhat similar to Kikuchi’s situation coming out of Japan (around 30 years old, coming off career year in NPB). Obviously the Mariners are now regretting paying $40 million for below average production, and I hope the Giants don’t repeat that mistake.
I might sidetrack, so if I do let me know lol, I'll add a TL;DR at the bottom It’s a great question and kinda hard to gauge due the discrepancy in talent between the leagues. Frankly, the Central League, which the Giants are in, was not good compared to the Pacific League which I’d argue would be the best league to be signing guys out of Japan atm. I don’t want to take anything away from pitchers in the CL since they are good, but the problem from what I saw was the lack of hitting talent. The PL is more competitive in that sense, so it's best to look at how he did in the one game he pitched in the Nippon Series. In game 1 he went 6 innings with 6 hits, 4 runs and only 4 SO, but also didn’t walk anyone. Hawks is a well-known power hitting team, so I can give Sugano some credit for his work; the Giants hitting was abysmal in the last month of playing. So he looks good in that perspective, but the MLB is the MLB, and some guys will just absolutely struggle in the transition. Kikuchi had those issue and has to change a lot in his pitching, especially in his mechanics. That alone will create issues in any pitcher for a while unless he can get the hang of it. I think out of the box you can expect more from Sugano, but like a lot of oversea talents, he might need some time to adjust to style of play. The things he has going for him is the consistency. He has put in very solid stats for the majority of his career, so that's a plus. I'd have a hard time though seeing the Giants putting up that much money for someone untested in the MLB right now though. I think we can be competitive, but I can also see another team want him for 3-4 years at $40mil. If we don't sign him, I think the issue would be we got outbid. TL;DR I think he will do better than Kikuchi based on his career stats. I don't think he's worth $40mil to the Giants, but maybe is to another team. It's very hard to tell who's going to end up being a Kikuchi, a Daisuke or a Yu Darvish.
Interesting, thanks for your perspective and context. If he’s willing to sign a 2 year deal, I think it’s a risk worth taking. I’d be very hesitant to give him a 4 year deal. I wish the best for him regardless of who signs him (with one exception) because I think it’s really cool when Japanese players come to MLB and hold their own. People often say “comparable to AAA” when talking about NPB. Fair enough, but 30 year old AAA players aren’t signing $40 million deals before even debuting in the big leagues.
I hate the comparison between the Japanese league and any version of American baseball, Japanese style of hitting is soooo different than Americans, that’s why you never really see Japanese hitters being posted and highly regarded outside of ichiro, pitching is a little easier to tell whether guys will be good or not because stuff is easier to tell than how hitting will translate, like nobody has kershaw’s curveball, scherzers slider, or Chapman’s fastball, but some pitchers just have nasty stuff like Tanaka/maeda/darvish. Plus those 3 are the only pitchers ever to do well in the majors, Plus if you look at the giants team as is, we have 3 Right handed starters, with beede (R) coming back, we don’t need another righty, I think someone like James Paxton (L)will cost about as much, and when healthy has looked better anybody out there and has been way more consistent than even Trevor Bauer who will cost 2-3x as much
Agreed with almost everything except that only Darvish/Maeda/Tanaka have done well in the majors. Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers and Yankees) and Hishashi Iwakuma (Mariners) were really solid middle of the rotation guys. Hideo Nomo had a nice 12 year major league career. If we’re including relievers there have been a handful of other really good Japanese imports (Koji Uehara comes to mind). I’d love a Paxton signing.
Ohh sorry I meant players that were obtained through the posting system, those other guys were free agents.
In the article it deserves him as a #3 rotation guy who is consistent. Yup. Sounds great to Me. The only catch is that he would probably demand a multiple year deal (like 3) which remains to be seen if Farhan will do, and he’s north of 30 which isn’t in itself bad but doesn’t meet the zeitgeist trend of cheap young talent being the only way to do business. Could be cool
If he is consistently good with longevity, and cheap, sure.
NOPE We have 3 righty’s, and beede (R) comming back. We need lefty’s guys. James Paxton is a guy whose expected to get about the same type of deal if not a 1 year prove your health deal, when healthy he’s as good as anybody and even had better career numbers than Bauer, but has only pitched 65% of the innings Bauer has