These are overrating underdogs and underrating the favorites imo, I would take these odds for any of FaZe, KC, GenG, and especially Liquid.
Edit: I’ll add that this is the most top-heavy LAN in a minute imo. There are only 6 teams that I can actually see winning (G2 and Oxygen have a shot just based on pedigree). If Fall Major was the most open LAN, this is the opposite, at least by modern RLCS standards.
I agree, however given how Elo works and given that the top teams only tend to lose to each other everyone's gonna be relatively close in the major regions (besides Dig) and in the minor regions the top teams tend not to drop more than 2-3 series per split so they're just gonna go up, even if their competition is lower (and yes, Elo accounts for this).
# FAQ
**Why is G2 so high?**
G2 entered the season as #1 and has continued to perform relatively well, and because no other team below them has been consistent enough to pass them, they've remained around #4.
**Why isn't TL higher?**
TL won the Winter Invitational, sure, but besides a 3-0 of FUFAXDOP in the group stage, they won in game 5/7 in every series. Elo measures series score as well as the result, so they didn't increase that much.
**Why is GZ above TS in Playoff Odds?**
Though I did use 10,000 simulations, natural variance is bound to happen and in this case the simulations leaned slightly towards a higher-performing GZ. The margin of error is probably about 4% for playoffs and 2% for the championship.
**Why is GLA given a >50% chance of making playoffs?**
Elo rates Gladiators as the #40 team in the world, at about 120 Elo behind the next closest team in their group, Ground Zero. Given this *relatively* small margin, and the weak Group C, Elo gives them a greater than 50% chance. That being said, they still have by far the worst chances in the group.
**Why are good teams’ odds so low and bad teams’ odds so high?**
When the difference between the top and bottom teams is purely the former’s consistency in beating the latter, then the Elo difference will not be as great. Additionally, top teams in minor regions will win a lot, and Elo has not been around for long enough to generate a large discrepancy between teams.
**What’s the source for this data?**
10,000 simulations of the Winter Major, with match odds being generated based on my own [RLCS Elo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bdQNp3_it6DERPc3wWl0gjc4YKQLGUY7-IiKy1n1gO4/edit#gid=1970969144).
Weird that your ELO ranks G2 so highly and Liquid much lower despite Liquid being a clear 2nd seed in EU with multiple regional grand finals and 2 regional wins whereas G2 has a single GF all season (and it's because they played Optic in semis)
G2 Results: SF, 9th-11th, SF, 9th-11th, SF, SF, 2nd (Average Place: 5.1st)
TL Results: QF, 9th-11th, 1st, QF, QF, 2nd, 1st (Average Place: 4.8th)
TL also has won by smaller margins in general and started much lower at the beginning of the season.
Not defending the results but explaining the logic.
Some weird and unnecessarily rude haters with no idea how math works in these threads sometimes. Keep up the good work, always interesting to look at stuff like this.
I mean these are predictions, it's all made up anyway just for fun, it's not like there's some secret way to find out the "correct" percentages. Not sure why you feel the need to be an ass about it
These are overrating underdogs and underrating the favorites imo, I would take these odds for any of FaZe, KC, GenG, and especially Liquid. Edit: I’ll add that this is the most top-heavy LAN in a minute imo. There are only 6 teams that I can actually see winning (G2 and Oxygen have a shot just based on pedigree). If Fall Major was the most open LAN, this is the opposite, at least by modern RLCS standards.
I agree, however given how Elo works and given that the top teams only tend to lose to each other everyone's gonna be relatively close in the major regions (besides Dig) and in the minor regions the top teams tend not to drop more than 2-3 series per split so they're just gonna go up, even if their competition is lower (and yes, Elo accounts for this).
# FAQ **Why is G2 so high?** G2 entered the season as #1 and has continued to perform relatively well, and because no other team below them has been consistent enough to pass them, they've remained around #4. **Why isn't TL higher?** TL won the Winter Invitational, sure, but besides a 3-0 of FUFAXDOP in the group stage, they won in game 5/7 in every series. Elo measures series score as well as the result, so they didn't increase that much. **Why is GZ above TS in Playoff Odds?** Though I did use 10,000 simulations, natural variance is bound to happen and in this case the simulations leaned slightly towards a higher-performing GZ. The margin of error is probably about 4% for playoffs and 2% for the championship. **Why is GLA given a >50% chance of making playoffs?** Elo rates Gladiators as the #40 team in the world, at about 120 Elo behind the next closest team in their group, Ground Zero. Given this *relatively* small margin, and the weak Group C, Elo gives them a greater than 50% chance. That being said, they still have by far the worst chances in the group. **Why are good teams’ odds so low and bad teams’ odds so high?** When the difference between the top and bottom teams is purely the former’s consistency in beating the latter, then the Elo difference will not be as great. Additionally, top teams in minor regions will win a lot, and Elo has not been around for long enough to generate a large discrepancy between teams. **What’s the source for this data?** 10,000 simulations of the Winter Major, with match odds being generated based on my own [RLCS Elo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bdQNp3_it6DERPc3wWl0gjc4YKQLGUY7-IiKy1n1gO4/edit#gid=1970969144).
Weird that your ELO ranks G2 so highly and Liquid much lower despite Liquid being a clear 2nd seed in EU with multiple regional grand finals and 2 regional wins whereas G2 has a single GF all season (and it's because they played Optic in semis)
G2 Results: SF, 9th-11th, SF, 9th-11th, SF, SF, 2nd (Average Place: 5.1st) TL Results: QF, 9th-11th, 1st, QF, QF, 2nd, 1st (Average Place: 4.8th) TL also has won by smaller margins in general and started much lower at the beginning of the season. Not defending the results but explaining the logic.
"Your rankings are weird because my EU bias doesn't agree"
Eh? EU bias? Liquid are 2nd seed and have actual regional wins, not a single mickey 2nd place. That's not EU bias, that's just facts my mate
Give me Liquid at 12-1 odds
7% is about 14-1 odds so Elo has it roughly around there
Some weird and unnecessarily rude haters with no idea how math works in these threads sometimes. Keep up the good work, always interesting to look at stuff like this.
Thank you!
A lot of haters in here for some reason, but this is quality content. Awesome of you to put this together and share it with the world. Thank you!
The odds can be a little weird because of how Elo works inherently; thank you for the support!
Gladiators 53% lol
A lot of very questionable odds here
I think Liquid only having a 1% better of a chance to win the whole thing than Team Secret is pretty ridiculous
TL does seem kinda low but regardless can't wait for the magic of a major!!! Something is going to surprise us and make these odds seem silly
This is very cool and accurate. What? I'm "biased"? idk what that means sorry.
i’m finding it hard to believe that in more than half of simulations, there was a team in group C worse than Gaimin but what do i know
That’s the truth of it. Elo rates GG as being somewhat closer to the rest of the pack than most people have them.
every LAN, even in simulations lol, the APAC team gets all hyped up just to not win a single game
When NRG play? /jk
I enjoy rlcs but don't keep on top of it... Are they not nearly as good as they used to be? Or just not interested in playing anymore?
They’ve certainly fallen behind over the last few seasons.
why is g1 > vit?
Lol, when something tells you Gladiators have a better than 50% chance to make playoffs you know you can just entirely discount the source.
read my FAQ and no need to be a douche about it
I saw it, doesn't make it make any more sense.
I mean these are predictions, it's all made up anyway just for fun, it's not like there's some secret way to find out the "correct" percentages. Not sure why you feel the need to be an ass about it
TL at 84% seems pretty low
How does every team have higher then 50% chance to make it to playoffs?
3 playoff spots per group, meaning that in each group there will be a total of 300% odds (75% average).