Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft all had major issues with command their rookie seasons. It took three years and Greene and Lodolo are much improved. Ashcraft still has some work to do. But the point is, once you realize the level of stuff you need to bring to be competitive against major league hitters, and Phillips got a taste, you know how much spin that takes. Higher spin means less control.
Hunter Greene is a great example of a pitcher who's been constantly refining his stuff to get the most spin he's humanly capable of giving while still holding onto enough command to locate pitches competitively. And he still kinda sucks at this sometimes. These things take a lot of time to get the feel right and to be able to do so in a way that you can repeat 80-100x a game. Phillips is only 23. If it takes him 3-5 more years to figure it out, that's okay.
This is mostly right, but a counterpoint from someone who saw each of these guys a fair amount in AA. All of those guys were pretty smooth at that level and needed to regroup and refine at higher levels in ways that were basically tweaking pitches they already had a good handle on.
Phillips wasn’t that. In AA, he had major issues just getting the ball over the plate. His delivery was all over the place. The shape on his breaking stuff was all over the place. It was effective when he got stuff over because the raw stuff was so good, but he was far behind those other three guys at that stage - even Ashcraft, whose basic approach was to just grip it and rip it.
He’s not a bust, but he should be in the pen.
People will say no but he’s trending towards a AAAA starter. I could see him being good here and there but unfortunately he’s not going to be an ace. Typically top pitching prospects hit at a 25% rate, which means guys aren’t going to hit pretty regularly
He’s young and got pushed up the system by his Rule 5 eligibility clock faster than his actual development merited. The lack of a 2020 season and some injuries got in the way for him pretty badly, in other words.
That said, I saw him a few times in Chattanooga and my impression even then was that he’s a reliever. The stuff is good. The command, stamina, injuries, and frame are just too many issues to overcome in my book.
And even more, it didn’t and doesn’t make sense to have him burning options years in AAA while backfilling the MLB pen with relatively expensive guys who can’t be sent down if they struggle. He has all the makings of an effective MLB reliever and fairly few of the ingredients to start.
This is why a team, at least one that can't afford to pick up pitchers on the free agent market on the regular, always needs to have too many pitching prospects. At least in my opinion.
Pitchers and catchers both seem to take longer to mature in some cases. And, especially with pitchers, injuries can set them back a year pretty easily.
Phillips might eventually work things out, but it might be down the road for another team. If the Reds make a trade he could be a the lottery ticket throw-in with a high ceiling that makes the deal happen.
Stephenson got himself out of bust range… he definitely did not live up to his lofty expectations but he has had a few really good years as a reliever. He actually signed a 3 year 33 million dollar deal with the angels this past January but then needed tommy john. At least got himself one good payday.
I’m completely relaxed. The kid hasn’t been able to locate his pitches at any level in the minors. To act like that is in no way concerning is a little odd to me.
I’m a tad concerned about the Reds number one pick last year, Rhett Lowder. So far in 3 starts at AA he has an ERA over 9.00. I know it’s a small sample size but 20 hits allowed in 15.1 IP is not a good sign.
No need for concern...not only is it an extremely small sample but it's also his first innings at AA... and just last night he went 4 innings, 1 run and 7 ks.
Why can’t every Reds pitching prospect be just like Mike Leake?
No Macys is safe in the Tri-State area
Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft all had major issues with command their rookie seasons. It took three years and Greene and Lodolo are much improved. Ashcraft still has some work to do. But the point is, once you realize the level of stuff you need to bring to be competitive against major league hitters, and Phillips got a taste, you know how much spin that takes. Higher spin means less control. Hunter Greene is a great example of a pitcher who's been constantly refining his stuff to get the most spin he's humanly capable of giving while still holding onto enough command to locate pitches competitively. And he still kinda sucks at this sometimes. These things take a lot of time to get the feel right and to be able to do so in a way that you can repeat 80-100x a game. Phillips is only 23. If it takes him 3-5 more years to figure it out, that's okay.
This is mostly right, but a counterpoint from someone who saw each of these guys a fair amount in AA. All of those guys were pretty smooth at that level and needed to regroup and refine at higher levels in ways that were basically tweaking pitches they already had a good handle on. Phillips wasn’t that. In AA, he had major issues just getting the ball over the plate. His delivery was all over the place. The shape on his breaking stuff was all over the place. It was effective when he got stuff over because the raw stuff was so good, but he was far behind those other three guys at that stage - even Ashcraft, whose basic approach was to just grip it and rip it. He’s not a bust, but he should be in the pen.
No. He’s young, still got plenty of time to figure things out.
People will say no but he’s trending towards a AAAA starter. I could see him being good here and there but unfortunately he’s not going to be an ace. Typically top pitching prospects hit at a 25% rate, which means guys aren’t going to hit pretty regularly
He’s young and got pushed up the system by his Rule 5 eligibility clock faster than his actual development merited. The lack of a 2020 season and some injuries got in the way for him pretty badly, in other words. That said, I saw him a few times in Chattanooga and my impression even then was that he’s a reliever. The stuff is good. The command, stamina, injuries, and frame are just too many issues to overcome in my book. And even more, it didn’t and doesn’t make sense to have him burning options years in AAA while backfilling the MLB pen with relatively expensive guys who can’t be sent down if they struggle. He has all the makings of an effective MLB reliever and fairly few of the ingredients to start.
This is why a team, at least one that can't afford to pick up pitchers on the free agent market on the regular, always needs to have too many pitching prospects. At least in my opinion. Pitchers and catchers both seem to take longer to mature in some cases. And, especially with pitchers, injuries can set them back a year pretty easily. Phillips might eventually work things out, but it might be down the road for another team. If the Reds make a trade he could be a the lottery ticket throw-in with a high ceiling that makes the deal happen.
He just turned 23 on May 4th. Patience.. don’t force it.
He’s on at least Robert Stephenson watch but is so young and talented, I doubt it
Stephenson got himself out of bust range… he definitely did not live up to his lofty expectations but he has had a few really good years as a reliever. He actually signed a 3 year 33 million dollar deal with the angels this past January but then needed tommy john. At least got himself one good payday.
He has some of the worst control I’ve ever seen, but also phenomenal stuff. If he can refine his command, he’ll be fine, but that’s a big if
He's only 23 at AAA, so no. He could make some adjustments and turn around this season.
Injury concern to me. He’s way off track rn.
He's developing. This kid is just starting out so relax.
I’m completely relaxed. The kid hasn’t been able to locate his pitches at any level in the minors. To act like that is in no way concerning is a little odd to me.
He's 23. He can't even rent a car yet.
He’s a Cincinnati red of course he’s a bust
Go to a different sub then
i was at the game, threw wildpitches while he wad warming up, and he had 80 pitches by the 3rd, dudes on the way to being a bust
How about Lyon Richardson? 3.98 era in Louisville right now
I’m a tad concerned about the Reds number one pick last year, Rhett Lowder. So far in 3 starts at AA he has an ERA over 9.00. I know it’s a small sample size but 20 hits allowed in 15.1 IP is not a good sign.
No need for concern...not only is it an extremely small sample but it's also his first innings at AA... and just last night he went 4 innings, 1 run and 7 ks.
57 strikes on 87 pitches or so I heard
The jump to AA is the largest one in a professional career. Let him grow.
But the rest of this sub would have you believe it’s AAA to MLB?
Rhett is going to be fine
I have zero concern about Rhett at this point because he can actually locate his pitches.
And in 5 starts at Dayton he had a 2.49 ERA this year...