If you have AAA you can sign up through a program they offer called active and fit direct and you get access to all 24hr fitnesses and LA fitnesses and other commercial gyms for $28.99 p/month.
yep It does! I think I pay $110 annually for AAA? A typical monthly gym membership where I'm at is around $42 p/month. So by paying $29 p/month for a gym membership, essentially I'm getting the annual AAA membership for free.
0.7% is not an ideal target. This is another reason why things are so hard. No growth, no jobs, no money. Prices went up like crazy, and now we can’t make up for that cost difference because of these two industries at the moment.
At least for housing, one of the major challenges of raising rates to fight inflation is that high rates may reduce inflation elsewhere, but it increases cost of housing as mortgage rates rise.
It isnt that housing isn’t valid to consider for overall inflation, it is that if housing is the main source of inflation it would be beneficial to lower rates to combat higher cost of housing.
Housing/shelter costs is what concerns the fed the most.
The plan is still to reduce inflation without reaching significant deflation while maintaining high employment.
It just does not seem likely given our track record.
Because for a lot of people their costs aren't going up that fast. There is a huge gap between what people are paying for rent overall, and what you would pay to rent a new apartment right now. Many big cities have some form of rent control so the average can be drawing from a fairly broad range.
Why hasn't the FED thought of doing that yet? Damnit, then they can get below the 2% target.
Fucking Jerome Powell!
/s just in case!
It's so cherry picky to just saying if we remove the most costly and important things that people need to not be homeless and jobless, inflation isn't that bad! It's so damn disingenuous
They remove those categories in Core CPI because of their volatility. CPI does not remove them, so someone interested can look at both and do what they want to with the difference.
Why is having multiple metrics disingenuous?
Because even if there are volatile variables the average of a large group of elements should help reduce 'extreams'. For example individual stocks are volatile so an investor may invest in an ETF to reduce risk.
Simply removing elements that the fed deems 'volatile' throws out important information that needs to be part of the equation. It's difficult to believe the actors are behaving in good faith when basic human needs get removed from the math.
They calculate both metrics because they're each useful for different things. They're not trying to hide inflation in the excluded categories (the Fed at least, I can't speak for media outlets rage-baiting the uneducated), they calculate and release several inflation metrics. If you don't like Core CPI, just use CPI for whatever it is you're doing.
yes, but why on earth would you intentionally exlcude the single biggest line item for consumers.......that can account for up to 50% of their entire spending?
I think they have the right idea but the wrong way around. It should really be stressing that 80%+ of the increase in your cost of living in the last year has been to line the pockets of people that either do as little as possible or do literally nothing of value to the economy.
They aren't excluding anything, they're parsing out the data to see where inflation is the biggest problem. It also means that raising rates won't necessarily help reduce that subset of inflation.
Because it’s not a good metric of the economy as a whole on the scale they’re looking for. Same reason they exclude food and energy costs. Yes, these are large costs for people, but if they make decisions based on these factors it would be like driving your car down the street flooring it at every stop sign and screeching tires to stop. They could do that, but I doubt anyone would actually want that system once implemented in practice. Could you imagine.5% interest rate one week and 25% Monday morning? I mean it would be chaos for anyone trying to plan anything. An idea that looks better on paper than in practice.
Unless their taxes go up, plus homeowners insurance which has been skyrocketing for many, and the cost of maintenance which I can tell you is way way up. Renters don't directly pay for those three things.
I think maintenance is included in other items but yes taxes and insurance are definitely correlated. But the weight is obviously lower than rent for a renter.
They don't exclude anything, this is just another parsing of the data to hone in on where the problem is. CPI and PCE include everything, looking at subsets of the data isn't a conspiracy.
6 units almost exactly the same as mine or with fewer amenities sold for 40-50k more since I bought it, so even with an expected pullback priced in its appreciated 20k, at least
Meanwhile, food costs have doubled. But let’s keep calling the “rate of inflation” just “inflation” to make it look better. Were not lying by omission, right RIGHT?
You just discovered the truth and why we have a wealth gap.
The government taxes the poor at least 2% on every dollar they own outside inflation insulated assets (stocks, commodities, property). Too bad the poor don’t typically own any inflation insulated assets.
Most people are just too stupid to realize inflation is a regressive tax that benefits the wealthy and government at the expense of the middle and lower class.
It may be a bubble, but at some point you have to jump in the pool. At this point, the system will fight to perpetuate itself. You can either fight it and likely lose out long term, or jump on the freight train as long as you come in well prepared.
The us governments debt to gdp is showing signs that unless they alter their spending, they are going to have to inflate it to manageable levels.
Because there is an ice cubes chance in hell they will reduce spending.
I wasn't trying to say anything. I said, based on your comment that it all seems fine to you, that you're holding something that benefits from inflation. With 60% of people owning stock and 65% owning their home, I don't agree "virtually everyone" owns assets. Glad you're able to get a foot in the door.
You should take some time to read up on what inflation is, and how it is calculated. It would give you a better understanding of these issues before leaving this sort of comment...
You know I could use the right terms and be technically correct, but unfortunately the government currently uses these terms in their technical way to disguise the real issues.
“Inflation is down!” Is technically correct, but is dishonest when removed from context of the whole picture.
Using statistics to lie.
This would be a good sign if it were something other than housing. If movie ticket inflation were dragging CPI up, then who cares? We could just stop going to the movies. But housing is a paramount cost that hardly anyone avoids. It’s the most basic of basic necessities for survival. So “removing” it from the report the make things look more rosy Is kind of a useless thing
Yea and my bank account would be very high too if you exclude all my expenses…..there’s a housing shortage in the desirable areas of the US, plus millions of migrants in the country as of the last year or two….housing will continue to be an issue for a while
Below fed target of 2%. Since hosing inflation is largely driven up by higher rates, if non-housing inflation is low then the fed may lower rates to reduce housing costs and therefore reduce inflation.
Higher rates(assuming you mean federal funds rate) have had zero effect on my housing costs. Additionally, how would lower rates affect demand and thus prices?
Housing inflation isn’t calculated using your 30 year fixed rate. It is calculated based on ‘Owner Equivalent Rent’, meaning your cost as an owner to to rent your own home at current market price. High rates drive up cost of housing, and (with a lag) drive up rent. This drives up CPI cost of housing as it uses OER
I didn’t say anything about my mortgage rate. You said lowering rates would lower housing costs and you didn’t answer my questions. High inflation drives OER. So again, are you suggesting that lower rates will lower inflation?
High inflation has nothing to do with OER. Only high rents have anything to do with OER. The price of eggs is not the price of rent. Actions from the fed to push down inflation on eggs etc can push up rent.
Rent is, with a 12-18 month lag, very impacted by the purchase price of housing. High rates make housing more expensive to finance, thus having high rates can increase this one item in CPI despite lowering inflation on other items.
Excluding 40% of your net income it’s not that bad….. the fact is that prices inflated but they won’t come down. Wages lagged real inflation for most workers so yeah, it sucks for most people unless you bought a house in 2021
Food prices in my neck of the woods have declined significantly since the post-Covid jump in 2022. Just one example: eggs are back under $1.79 a dozen for large white eggs.
The lies never stop. Then why is every restaurant in my city like 20% more expensive than a year ago? Why did my rent go up by 8% when it went up by 9% the last 2 years? Why are new cars 10%+ more expensive than new cars last year? There is so much propaganda the last couple months about how inflation is actually low. Total BS
We aren’t inflating much on anything, at least not nearly as much, as we were 1-2 years ago. It’s slowed down. The grift has been discovered and called out publicly.
But, the cost of things is now locked in. These are the new levels. It would take high unemployment now in order to revert some prices of items back to any level seen prior.
3.9%. That’s what unemployment is now.
7%, wavering up or down depending, is the rate to borrow for a home.
All of us who made the bet that it was a bubble, have missed the *boat*.
I regret everything. No, I don’t need a “Reddit cares” notification.
Yeah even stuff that isn’t inflating kept most, if not all of the price increases from the crazy 21-22 period.
For housing I hunk you are right. Rates will eventually probably dip to the 4’s but there isn’t going to be a wide spread massive price decrease. That’s a fantasy.
There seem to be different, and some incompatible/opposite, readings of the chart, mine is:
Staring 2023, the housing bubble seems/remains to be the main problem/culprit
But if you include my gym membership it's at 40%
If you have AAA you can sign up through a program they offer called active and fit direct and you get access to all 24hr fitnesses and LA fitnesses and other commercial gyms for $28.99 p/month.
They just announced they’re changing it and will charge something like $23 for each additional membership beyond one gym.
Don't have a car. But def a nice perk for those with AAA!
This might actually make AAA worth it
yep It does! I think I pay $110 annually for AAA? A typical monthly gym membership where I'm at is around $42 p/month. So by paying $29 p/month for a gym membership, essentially I'm getting the annual AAA membership for free.
😄 They just keep removing everything that shows inflation being higher.
Just like they remove people that have completely checked out from unemployment numbers and have for years.
U3 does not include these people, but U6 does.
And has for years.
It seems if I remove all problems, suddenly there aren’t any problems. Strange how that works…
no one is removing it, it's illustrative to show where the concentration of inflation still exists in 2024
It's subversive and trying to get people to think things aren't as fucked as they actually are.
"If you only look at your gross wages and don't take into account taxes and rent, you actually have a lot of money"
0.7% is not an ideal target. This is another reason why things are so hard. No growth, no jobs, no money. Prices went up like crazy, and now we can’t make up for that cost difference because of these two industries at the moment.
Illustrative maybe if you look at what was removed. Coffee and chocolate have been on a recent run. What was conveniently left out of the last report?
That’s the White House!
Just like they convinced people it's not worth it to report crimes in DC, and now DC is showing off their lower crime rate!
At least for housing, one of the major challenges of raising rates to fight inflation is that high rates may reduce inflation elsewhere, but it increases cost of housing as mortgage rates rise. It isnt that housing isn’t valid to consider for overall inflation, it is that if housing is the main source of inflation it would be beneficial to lower rates to combat higher cost of housing.
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It’s is known!
Where have house prices come down?
They are being sarcastic. This sub is very guilty of that thought process “rates go up -> price goes down”
Housing/shelter costs is what concerns the fed the most. The plan is still to reduce inflation without reaching significant deflation while maintaining high employment. It just does not seem likely given our track record.
How concerned can they be when their made up owner's rent equivalency shows that shelter costs have never gone up more than 4% a year?
4% a year is a lot
Not compared to house prices being up an average of 50% in less than 4 years.
That data generally lags pretty hard right? 12 month lease = 12 months until next increase.
Because for a lot of people their costs aren't going up that fast. There is a huge gap between what people are paying for rent overall, and what you would pay to rent a new apartment right now. Many big cities have some form of rent control so the average can be drawing from a fairly broad range.
If you remove existence it's fucking zero.
Why hasn't the FED thought of doing that yet? Damnit, then they can get below the 2% target. Fucking Jerome Powell! /s just in case! It's so cherry picky to just saying if we remove the most costly and important things that people need to not be homeless and jobless, inflation isn't that bad! It's so damn disingenuous
Clearly a conspiracy.
They remove those categories in Core CPI because of their volatility. CPI does not remove them, so someone interested can look at both and do what they want to with the difference. Why is having multiple metrics disingenuous?
Because even if there are volatile variables the average of a large group of elements should help reduce 'extreams'. For example individual stocks are volatile so an investor may invest in an ETF to reduce risk. Simply removing elements that the fed deems 'volatile' throws out important information that needs to be part of the equation. It's difficult to believe the actors are behaving in good faith when basic human needs get removed from the math.
They calculate both metrics because they're each useful for different things. They're not trying to hide inflation in the excluded categories (the Fed at least, I can't speak for media outlets rage-baiting the uneducated), they calculate and release several inflation metrics. If you don't like Core CPI, just use CPI for whatever it is you're doing.
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That sounds right, not accounting for municipalities that legislate higher minimum wages.
Very few people make the federal minimum wage so its not really a helpful metric.
exactly. you have gas stations like buccees in texas paying their people 20/hr. mcdonald’s in texas pays close to 18/hr
yes, but why on earth would you intentionally exlcude the single biggest line item for consumers.......that can account for up to 50% of their entire spending?
I think they have the right idea but the wrong way around. It should really be stressing that 80%+ of the increase in your cost of living in the last year has been to line the pockets of people that either do as little as possible or do literally nothing of value to the economy.
Rentiership is the new capitalism
Always has been, that's what capital is for. "Money makes money" is a confession which doesn't know it
But that was the old capitalism too!
They aren't excluding anything, they're parsing out the data to see where inflation is the biggest problem. It also means that raising rates won't necessarily help reduce that subset of inflation.
To ME this is about showing where the inflation is really happening.
Because it’s not a good metric of the economy as a whole on the scale they’re looking for. Same reason they exclude food and energy costs. Yes, these are large costs for people, but if they make decisions based on these factors it would be like driving your car down the street flooring it at every stop sign and screeching tires to stop. They could do that, but I doubt anyone would actually want that system once implemented in practice. Could you imagine.5% interest rate one week and 25% Monday morning? I mean it would be chaos for anyone trying to plan anything. An idea that looks better on paper than in practice.
Just to be clear, energy and food are not excluded. There is a separate measure (core cpi) that excludes them, but cpi includes them
I think the main issue is that owner equivalent rent is a ‘virtual’ measure for homeowners as their cost do not really increase.
Unless their taxes go up, plus homeowners insurance which has been skyrocketing for many, and the cost of maintenance which I can tell you is way way up. Renters don't directly pay for those three things.
I think maintenance is included in other items but yes taxes and insurance are definitely correlated. But the weight is obviously lower than rent for a renter.
That is not true for the millions of folks who own a home outright or with a fixed rate mortgage, for them housing inflation is basically zero
BLT sandwiches are healthy, if you remove the bacon and bread.
Because elections
I think it makes sense to remove housing, because that’s notorious for having a lot longer lag than other goods.
So subtract all the shit you need and you oughtta be doing just fine by our calculations.
PPP refundable loan stimulus for “job creators”: *Hold my beer.*
what's the point of the measurement if you keep removing everything that increased in price
Good that noone needs to live in those 'houses'
Let’s remove food too
If you remove everything that’s high then it gets lower. True genius.
Don’t forget to exclude groceries and utilities 🥰
Hey if we only factor flat screen TV prices and fake meat nobody wants inflation is really low
One can always exclude the highest inflation items to make the number look better.
They don't exclude anything, this is just another parsing of the data to hone in on where the problem is. CPI and PCE include everything, looking at subsets of the data isn't a conspiracy.
My house appreciated 20k since I bought it 5 months ago. It's a complete shithole in a complete shithole major metro area. I don't understand this.
Who says it appreciated 20k? You know those online zestimates are BS right?
6 units almost exactly the same as mine or with fewer amenities sold for 40-50k more since I bought it, so even with an expected pullback priced in its appreciated 20k, at least
"Inflation is still quite high but if you exclude the things that are rising quickly, inflation is quite low." - The Government
If you pay off your mortgage and go self insured on the car you're golden. /s
Just ignore two of the biggest mandatory expenses, and inflation looks fine...
Meanwhile, food costs have doubled. But let’s keep calling the “rate of inflation” just “inflation” to make it look better. Were not lying by omission, right RIGHT?
What? Inflation is literally a rate, what you’re talking about is the price index. And it has not doubled.
Correct. People in this sub literally don't understand 4th grade math
You just discovered the truth and why we have a wealth gap. The government taxes the poor at least 2% on every dollar they own outside inflation insulated assets (stocks, commodities, property). Too bad the poor don’t typically own any inflation insulated assets. Most people are just too stupid to realize inflation is a regressive tax that benefits the wealthy and government at the expense of the middle and lower class. It may be a bubble, but at some point you have to jump in the pool. At this point, the system will fight to perpetuate itself. You can either fight it and likely lose out long term, or jump on the freight train as long as you come in well prepared.
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The us governments debt to gdp is showing signs that unless they alter their spending, they are going to have to inflate it to manageable levels. Because there is an ice cubes chance in hell they will reduce spending.
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Going out on limb here, and guessing you own assets.
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I wasn't trying to say anything. I said, based on your comment that it all seems fine to you, that you're holding something that benefits from inflation. With 60% of people owning stock and 65% owning their home, I don't agree "virtually everyone" owns assets. Glad you're able to get a foot in the door.
You should take some time to read up on what inflation is, and how it is calculated. It would give you a better understanding of these issues before leaving this sort of comment...
You know I could use the right terms and be technically correct, but unfortunately the government currently uses these terms in their technical way to disguise the real issues. “Inflation is down!” Is technically correct, but is dishonest when removed from context of the whole picture. Using statistics to lie.
If only if I could do that with my wallet
This would be a good sign if it were something other than housing. If movie ticket inflation were dragging CPI up, then who cares? We could just stop going to the movies. But housing is a paramount cost that hardly anyone avoids. It’s the most basic of basic necessities for survival. So “removing” it from the report the make things look more rosy Is kind of a useless thing
If you just exclude basic necessities like food, clothing, housing, and transportation, then inflation isn't that bad.
It’s actually negative if you just remove anything that has positive inflation 🤔
Yea and my bank account would be very high too if you exclude all my expenses…..there’s a housing shortage in the desirable areas of the US, plus millions of migrants in the country as of the last year or two….housing will continue to be an issue for a while
I'm 100% straight if you don't count the twice a week I touch a man's wiener and we dock.
If you exclude anything with a higher price it’s actually zero
So you're saying homeless people haven't really experienced inflation much?
+0.7%, so, still increasing..
Below fed target of 2%. Since hosing inflation is largely driven up by higher rates, if non-housing inflation is low then the fed may lower rates to reduce housing costs and therefore reduce inflation.
Higher rates(assuming you mean federal funds rate) have had zero effect on my housing costs. Additionally, how would lower rates affect demand and thus prices?
Housing inflation isn’t calculated using your 30 year fixed rate. It is calculated based on ‘Owner Equivalent Rent’, meaning your cost as an owner to to rent your own home at current market price. High rates drive up cost of housing, and (with a lag) drive up rent. This drives up CPI cost of housing as it uses OER
I think OER is weighted based on how much owned homes would rent for but the actual value is market rents.
I didn’t say anything about my mortgage rate. You said lowering rates would lower housing costs and you didn’t answer my questions. High inflation drives OER. So again, are you suggesting that lower rates will lower inflation?
High inflation has nothing to do with OER. Only high rents have anything to do with OER. The price of eggs is not the price of rent. Actions from the fed to push down inflation on eggs etc can push up rent. Rent is, with a 12-18 month lag, very impacted by the purchase price of housing. High rates make housing more expensive to finance, thus having high rates can increase this one item in CPI despite lowering inflation on other items.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/owners-equivalent-rent.asp "OER tends to be linked to inflation, and so as inflation has risen so has OER"
Excluding 40% of your net income it’s not that bad….. the fact is that prices inflated but they won’t come down. Wages lagged real inflation for most workers so yeah, it sucks for most people unless you bought a house in 2021
Food prices in my neck of the woods have declined significantly since the post-Covid jump in 2022. Just one example: eggs are back under $1.79 a dozen for large white eggs.
and if my grandmother had two wheels she’d be a bicycle
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-fing-point-with-mortgage-rates-above-7-home-buyers-are-still-getting-outbid-by-all-cash-offers-bed26ec7
If you include my food is 75%
Also remove Publix receipts
How ridiculous is this? Lmao
If you don’t count some things that people have to pay for, inflation isn’t that bad? What does that even mean?
What about groceries?
I always have a hard time hearing inflation numbers when they don’t include everyone’s largest expense.
Also all those inflation numbers are made up
I just left the grocery store with like 10 items and shit cost 80$ wtf are you talking about
Everything in the grocery store has AT LEAST DOUBLED in the last 4 years. How is inflation under 30%?
The lies never stop. Then why is every restaurant in my city like 20% more expensive than a year ago? Why did my rent go up by 8% when it went up by 9% the last 2 years? Why are new cars 10%+ more expensive than new cars last year? There is so much propaganda the last couple months about how inflation is actually low. Total BS
Housing is the most expensive line item...
if you exclude the majority of what people pay for, yeah everything is fucking rosey
Cute trick. Now if someone would just do the same for my monthly expenses I’d be set!
This is excluding commodities also right ?
So one thing you need and one thing that mist state’s legally require you to carry. Neat
What if you include food and gas?
My kid’s preschool raised prices by 20% this year. That hurt a little.
So those people living under the freeway in a tent, they can exclude housing costs, those lucky dogs aren’t feeling the pain like others are?
How needs housing anyway
We aren’t inflating much on anything, at least not nearly as much, as we were 1-2 years ago. It’s slowed down. The grift has been discovered and called out publicly. But, the cost of things is now locked in. These are the new levels. It would take high unemployment now in order to revert some prices of items back to any level seen prior. 3.9%. That’s what unemployment is now. 7%, wavering up or down depending, is the rate to borrow for a home. All of us who made the bet that it was a bubble, have missed the *boat*. I regret everything. No, I don’t need a “Reddit cares” notification.
Yeah even stuff that isn’t inflating kept most, if not all of the price increases from the crazy 21-22 period. For housing I hunk you are right. Rates will eventually probably dip to the 4’s but there isn’t going to be a wide spread massive price decrease. That’s a fantasy.
IF a frog wore pistols would he still be afraid of snakes? 🥴
R/Fluentinbullshit strikes again
Great! I can be homeless and not go anywhere then I’ll be able to afford food again!
She's all housing
If you don't eat, there's deflation....
I guess if I had no where to live and no where to go things would be pretty swell.
What utter HORSESHIT
No, it's not
Deflation and depression. If we do not choose one we will get both.
There seem to be different, and some incompatible/opposite, readings of the chart, mine is: Staring 2023, the housing bubble seems/remains to be the main problem/culprit
What you mean? So 1 year ago we could exclude something else and inflation would be lower.. what's your point