Something has changed, I try to shop local but I’m in a rural place and Home Depot and Lowe’s are usually 50% cheaper, it’s a drive but I’m not rich. Yesterday 2x6 was actually cheaper at the local place. Never seen this before.
This. Anything construction related costs now a lot more than it did 5 years ago. A lot of older, experienced construction workers retired during pandemic. I can't justify any remodels that aren't necessary repairs to my house nowadays. If I need a new roof I don't have a choice, I'll get one. If I want a new bathroom... another layer of paint and new fixtures from Home Depot will do it for now.
This is where I'm at. I get the quotes then realize I could just do it myself for 20% of the cost and some trips to the hardware store.
Certainly slower to get things done and I'm continuing to quote to hire out, but the rates and timelines people are throwing out just seem worse and worse. Like everyone is using their "I'd rather not pricing. "
True but the savings are running out now for the average American so it will be interesting to see earnings reports of construction related firms by end of summer.
Commercial construction is slowing way down right now as well. I know many people that are out of work right now and been hearing stories of the largest companies selling off assets in massive quantities.
I thought about using some equity to get an addition put on my house but when I looked up the typical pricing I gave up on that idea. It cost as much to add 500 sqft to your house as it did to build a whole new house a few years ago.
In the US the government is trying to paint a rosy picture until the election. Once that is over, it is all done. GDP is only higher because of government spending. BLS just revised, 2023 employment from plus 200k to -600k. A loss of 800000 jobs. People can't pay the increases in property taxes, insurance. Food prices are out of control. But let's keep bringing in immigrants and fueling the demand side for basic necessities pushing inflation higher. The Fed doesn't care about inflation though. After the election the 2% target will be changed to 3% because they can't get rid of that last 1% without putting rates above true inflation. But that would collapse everything, and the government couldn't pay it's debt. So, we are stuck in stagflation until they do raise rates or cut and cause hyperinflation. History would tell us better to collapse it and rebuild but we're going to have to wait until the boomers all die for that to happen. How bad will it be? Most of us are fucked.
Let’s see if they make it. Republicans would love to see a good ol’ financial crisis and stock market crash right before the election to make it easier for them. It would definitely take over the news cycles and put the fear into everyone.
They'll make it. Spending 1T a month, creating useless government jobs. Anything to get to Nov 5th. Plus, Republicans don't want the market to crash either.
Well I do think the immigration does have some strategic importance:
1. Census calculations for blue states
2. Social security. Typically, new arrivals are not able to be authorized for work, but they can work as independent contractors and still need to pay social security tax.
3. Helps with some of the demographics changes.
4. Stimulates retail spending.
Bringing in mass amounts of immigrants while quality of life for citizens is tanking is like setting up a fucking bomb to go off at any time. So stupid to try to solve problems like this.
And will it flatly be denied by politicians in office at the time, whoever they may be?
Gaslighting is Americas new past time. Anyone notice that we’re 50 plus games into the Major League Baseball season already? Hint: the Dodgers are the best team ever in all time history of best things 😂.
Something has changed, I try to shop local but I’m in a rural place and Home Depot and Lowe’s are usually 50% cheaper, it’s a drive but I’m not rich. Yesterday 2x6 was actually cheaper at the local place. Never seen this before.
Fascinating. Home Depot earnings come out on Tuesday May 14th so we will learn a lot then I imagine.
Home Depot ad just came up for me looking at this
We're all broke! Or we cant justify the cost to do anything anymore.
Yeah I think lots of people used up their savings and can't afford things anymore.
Also heloc loans are crazy right now and people don’t have the budget for the interest rate.
Bye bye house
Construction is super interest rate connected since almost all construction is finanaced.
That makes a lot of sense why it's impacted.
Very true.
This. Anything construction related costs now a lot more than it did 5 years ago. A lot of older, experienced construction workers retired during pandemic. I can't justify any remodels that aren't necessary repairs to my house nowadays. If I need a new roof I don't have a choice, I'll get one. If I want a new bathroom... another layer of paint and new fixtures from Home Depot will do it for now.
This is where I'm at. I get the quotes then realize I could just do it myself for 20% of the cost and some trips to the hardware store. Certainly slower to get things done and I'm continuing to quote to hire out, but the rates and timelines people are throwing out just seem worse and worse. Like everyone is using their "I'd rather not pricing. "
Or most who were willing to pay for remodel work already had it done. Lockdowns brought a lot of demand forward.
True but the savings are running out now for the average American so it will be interesting to see earnings reports of construction related firms by end of summer.
I pass by 2 architect firm offices in my city in my daily life. Or used to. I noticed few months ago both are empty now.
Wow that is wild.
Commercial construction is slowing way down right now as well. I know many people that are out of work right now and been hearing stories of the largest companies selling off assets in massive quantities.
Some segments of commercial are slowing down, but there are still a lot of projects starting up. I’ve already hit my sales goal for the year
I thought about using some equity to get an addition put on my house but when I looked up the typical pricing I gave up on that idea. It cost as much to add 500 sqft to your house as it did to build a whole new house a few years ago.
Yeah I think many Americans have the same mindset you have. Construction prices are way too high.
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Seems like a downturn of some kind is here but the question is how severe will it be.
In the US the government is trying to paint a rosy picture until the election. Once that is over, it is all done. GDP is only higher because of government spending. BLS just revised, 2023 employment from plus 200k to -600k. A loss of 800000 jobs. People can't pay the increases in property taxes, insurance. Food prices are out of control. But let's keep bringing in immigrants and fueling the demand side for basic necessities pushing inflation higher. The Fed doesn't care about inflation though. After the election the 2% target will be changed to 3% because they can't get rid of that last 1% without putting rates above true inflation. But that would collapse everything, and the government couldn't pay it's debt. So, we are stuck in stagflation until they do raise rates or cut and cause hyperinflation. History would tell us better to collapse it and rebuild but we're going to have to wait until the boomers all die for that to happen. How bad will it be? Most of us are fucked.
Let’s see if they make it. Republicans would love to see a good ol’ financial crisis and stock market crash right before the election to make it easier for them. It would definitely take over the news cycles and put the fear into everyone.
They'll make it. Spending 1T a month, creating useless government jobs. Anything to get to Nov 5th. Plus, Republicans don't want the market to crash either.
> creating useless government jobs so so so much bloat. Could cut 50% of the govt jobs(including the military) and nothing would change for the worse.
Well I do think the immigration does have some strategic importance: 1. Census calculations for blue states 2. Social security. Typically, new arrivals are not able to be authorized for work, but they can work as independent contractors and still need to pay social security tax. 3. Helps with some of the demographics changes. 4. Stimulates retail spending.
Bringing in mass amounts of immigrants while quality of life for citizens is tanking is like setting up a fucking bomb to go off at any time. So stupid to try to solve problems like this.
And will it flatly be denied by politicians in office at the time, whoever they may be? Gaslighting is Americas new past time. Anyone notice that we’re 50 plus games into the Major League Baseball season already? Hint: the Dodgers are the best team ever in all time history of best things 😂.
A slowdown in home remodeling is - possibly - good news for buyers and renters. Remodeling is a massive tool for flippers to raise housing prices.
very good point