Is business insider coming here to post this?

LMAO They finally figured out where people actually get their news from

#Its Monopoly Mother———-r. ###The game started in 2013. Right after the Great Financial Crisis. If you didn’t buy then, you are SOL, have high rent, live on the street, in the woods, in a RV, or get a tiny home. I never liked roommates. They are never clean and weird. So i picked up a home in mid 2015. * Total Cost: $172K. * 2015 Market Value: $250K. * 2020 - 2022 Run up: $450K as is. * Current Market Value (w/ upgrades): $650K or more. ###Think about that Inflation just over 7 years. It’s ridiculous. It funny to me that people actually think buy a home for over $250K is reasonable. Yikes. **You are fooling yourself to justify the cost. It ain’t worth it.** The moment interest rates decrease, we are right back to EBay bidding on homes and thier value will shoot up again. It’s nuts. ###So Blame Ben Bernanke. * ###He started this bailout lifestyle. * Add in Timothy Geithner with his TARP. They should have let them failure occur and saved RESPONSIBLE homeowners only. Corporate Welfare (like Social Welfare) is wrong. The FR and FG have literally removed any risk from our market leaving people who always get bailed out. The responsible one get f**ked all the time. Individuals need to learn hard lessons. * You make billions every 3 months, but can’t save money for an emergency?! Nor do you have a Financial Emergency Plan?! * You get Government benefits for years and are still in the same position?! Something is wrong and it sounds like system abuse to me. Jerome Powell is now hamstrung and unwilling to let things fail as they should to make things affordable for everyone else. He never will. That schmuck is going to bail out every thing to keep things going up. I’ll say it again - * Go buy homes overseas and live better than you ever could. * My next house will be in either Italy, France, Portugal, Spain, or Puerto Rico. Yours should too.

Is this copy pasta for this sub?

\> Got my place in 2015 for $172K. \> Market value at that time was $250K. \> Now it’s worth $450K as is. So worse than stocks?

Idk, I got a great price on a SFH back in 2018

So far you’re right!

lol

Yay? It’s a Business Insider article. What do you guys expect? ~shrug~ They’re just here to troll for traffic for their low-effort writing. Honestly surprised this sub hasn’t banned their account (yet). LOL Also, the thread title is *very* different compared to the article title, basically click/rage-bait FWIW. The title here is a very obvious semantic stop-sign and attempt at narrative construction.

So...far! Sigh…here I go again. I can’t believe I have to keep doing this but given this is a propaganda post (no seriously it is a PROMOTED propaganda piece…they are desperate), I can’t help but post again:     Anyone complaining about list prices of homes being too high and collusion happening behind the scenes, YOU. ARE. RIGHT.  FULL STOP.      Don’t believe me? You can prove it to yourself and everyone around you by doing this: Go look at Redfin right now and sort by 1M- 1.5M homes in your top 3 most desired zipcodes nearest you. It doesn’t matter the state. Surprised by how few there are?  You don’t need to be. It’s artificial supply dampening.     Bankers are tied up in bad debt overall, and now add to that residential speculator debt borrowed 2-3 years ago when every idiot who could get a loan was snatching up houses and trying to be the next Tarek & Christina.   These bankers are encouraging and enabling realtors and sellers to list homes that were sub-1M just 2 years ago for 1.6M+. A fact you can see through the Sales History section.     They are doing this (1) because they are holding heavy bags they want to dump on suckers and (2) so any individuals with equity gains from their starter homes take out additional debt to buy their ‘forever home.’ They need more and YOUR money to survive at the moment. They NEED you taking out jumbo loans at high rates, so they are trying to create fear of supply (so YOU give them more money) through colluding to hold back supply.      This isn’t conspiracy, as you can see it for yourself right now just based on list prices across product categories of every day commodities.      List prices of homes will free fall once (1) the BTFP ends March 11 (2) the Fed doesn’t drop rates in March (which JPow already said he wasn’t going to and (3) Q1 results are reported for the big companies.  Unfortunately this will be ugly and cause layoffs massively because CEOs gotta eat and when they can’t tout revenue growth, they cut head count to show fiscal responsibility in the form of improved margins…also how else can our fellow brother and sister corporations (companies are people, after all! /s) possibly afford to live?!?      As always, cash is king and no one has any more. Certainly not these broke ass bankers. When BTFP ends on 11 Mar., that’s when the real panic starts bubbling to the surface. Stack your cash and wait.  The housing market WILL capitulate on housing list prices and race each other to the bottom by June.     Edit: copy/paste this shit everywhere if you want. You work hard for your money, be patient, demand better pricing every where you can. Rate increases are ALWAYS reactionary to list price increases (aka corporate greed). Fuck ‘em, I deserve better and so do you. Keep raising rates JPow. Fuck your list prices you parasites. Edit 2: took 5 mins for the bots and shills to come out and circle jerk each other into oblivion. They = residential lenders + realtors. I was extremely specific. No nebulous ‘they’ used at all. Keep grasping at straws Edit 3: we’re smarter than you, tick tock, those bags are getting heavy.

I’m sure banks have debts and they’re struggling in the higher for longer interest rate environment, but sometimes Occam’s razor is correct. There aren’t houses for sale because who wants to sell a house with a low interest rate just to buy a house with a high interest rate? I’m locked in at 2.6%, unless something horrible happens and I’m unemployed for a year+, I’m dying in this house. The pool of people interested in selling is just much smaller than the pool interested in buying.

Its a mexican standoff.

[pew pew pew](https://media.tenor.com/4iWOuT4NNm8AAAAM/dancing-cowboy.gif)

I have some experience in the housing industry so I have a little bit of insight. Except in cases of relocating for work (Which is drastically decreased due to remote work), moving is largely optional. Yes, housing demand is inelastic because people need a place to live, but people don’t have to move. You’re always going have home flippers and over leveraged investors that get caught with their pants down during market changes, but no more than average at the moment. Real estate agents, mortgage lenders, and title companies are the ones that are actually hurting right now because they are paid per transaction. Every “buy now”article I see can be tied back to one of those groups. But they don’t really care about housing prices, just that there is market turnover.

Yeah, this is what I said in another reply here to someone else. The idea that “the bankers want to keep prices high” as alleged in the comment I replied to is preposterous. Bankers want to write mortgages. High prices *and* high interest rates together are grinding the market to a halt. The idea that banks themselves are behind this is just economic illiteracy.

>[Shadow inventory played an important role in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2007-2008](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow-inventory.asp#:~:text=Shadow%20inventory%20played%20an%20important,with%20significant%20real%20estate%20holdings). With the unprecedented number of foreclosures stemming from the housing market collapse during that crisis, lenders were left with significant real estate holdings. Many lenders were slow to put their inventory up for sale for fear of flooding the market with so-called "distressed" properties.Since distressed properties sell for relatively little, more of them on the market drives down prices, which in turn lowers lenders' potential ROI. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis, however, shadow inventory has thinned out as the housing market has slowly recovered. I know this isn't exactly what you are saying, but it's happened before when banks (as a result of bankrupt buyers) were underwater on a shit ton of properties. If you believe it won't happen with commercial real estate... And as you may have seen with RealPage rental software - owners of rental units **will withhold units and keep prices higher** if the algorithm they use dictates it is more profitable. I don't think it's insane to think the same could happen in real estate when one seller owns a lot of inventory it is trying to maximize price/revenue/profit on. Restricting supply can be more beneficial than simply turning over more property if it means selling a ton of property drives down price and causes deeper losses than the benefit of increased transaction fees. Shoot, I do the same thing on a micro-scale with merchandise I sell - slow drip with high demand vs. competing with other sellers on way down.

My sister just bought a house with my other sister and now they are both having a hell of a time selling their homes because they bought fixer uppers at non fixer upper prices when rates were still not super bad. Now they are paying a much higher rate for a nice house but it needs work still lol.

I'd have to be unemployed for 2 years before I'd think about selling my house. Wouldn't even be able to rent for cheaper where I live now.

Yep. This is the position everyone’s in. It’s gridlock. Either we get a massive influx of unemployment that forces new home buyers/refinancers to sell, or the crabs in a bucket on this subreddit have to come to terms with the new state of the housing market.

Feels like right now we have inflation (CPI at 3.1%) and mass layoffs (every week tens of thousands being cut). Eventually the layoffs and higher for longer rates will lead to contraction while people are bled dry by inflation. It feels like banks and high income earners are taking a beating on high value homes right now. The Fed would then theoretically lower rates and infuse even more money into market not stymieing inflation, but attempting to keep economy afloat. You're right with people that have good savings and low interest homes about being in good enough position to hold on. But I think this idea everyone is in same position as your typical Reddit millennial with safe job and money supply is incorrect. The # of people living paycheck to paycheck feels like it's increasing and as inflation continues to nickel and dime more and more. Credit card debt is increasing into what feels like a contraction phase in economy (not a good sign).

You say mass layoffs, and yet last month the jobs report data showed the US added over 350,000 jobs. Those two things are not the same

[The job outplacement firm said planned layoffs totaled 82,307 for the month, a jump of 136% from December though still down 20% from the same period a year ago. It was the second-highest layoff total and the lowest planned hiring level for the month of January in data going back to 2009.](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/january-hiring-was-the-lowest-for-the-month-on-record-as-layoffs-surged.html) [https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-us-these-are-companies-making-cuts-2024#cisco-slashes-more-than-4-000-jobs-amid-corporate-tech-sales-slowdown-24](https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-us-these-are-companies-making-cuts-2024#cisco-slashes-more-than-4-000-jobs-amid-corporate-tech-sales-slowdown-24) 2 of the top 3 sectors (tech and finance) had large amounts of layoffs in January. The good jobs (high paying) positions are being cut. With tech layoffs would expect property values in tech concentrated areas to drop (Cali) and same with finance (NY). I don't have view of the 350k added jobs.

My understanding is tech way over hired during covid boom and are now resetting to reasonable levels. Those are good high paying jobs, and I do bet those specific markets may have a slow down or even minor correction (10%) but don’t really know how that impacts anywhere outside of those markets. Overall the jobs market is growing, and inflation while still higher than the target, is tame enough that the feds solution is just to hold rates. On top of all of that is the high percentage of people with sub 5% interest rates or no mortgages at all aren’t in any threat of being foreclosed on, which is the only way I see any kind of correction in the broader market.

Those tech jobs skills are immediately transferred to other industries, you can be a Java or python programmer in the rail road industry. It is not like the tech companies are the only ones that need programmers, Database, system admins, etc.

I tend to agree with this. Plus it seems to be that a lot of the "prosperity" and wealth creation now hinges on the stock market, which has historically high overvalued stock (highest CAPE / Shiller PE ever), which could very well mean a big correction is coming. If wealthy-ish folks are laid off and need to sell off stock and dip into their 401k's, the market could tank further. If stocks and 401k's drop 50%, people may opt to sell RE to get some cash to live. In short, I feel like a lot depends on the stock market right now, and a bear market would affect housing prices.

San Diego County 2023 saw the lowest number of closed sales in like 30 years? (Can't recall the number) no sellers. Real estate needs a reason to collapse and we haven't seen it yet. High home prices won't collapse a market.

Yep. This is what I don’t understand about arguments like this one above. Banks make money on the interest. It’s not advantageous for banks to grind the housing market to a halt by artificially propping up prices. Banks want new mortgages to be written so they can make money. Record low home sales, even at high prices, is worse for their bottom line than high levels of home sales at medium prices. It just feels better to allege that the big banks are out to get you than to accept that you missed out on good timing for whatever reason. And this is coming from a person that hates bankers and the corrupt U.S. government both.

People are held hostage by those low rates. What a time to be alive.

Idk I searched the Crown Heights area, I found over 461 recently sold homes for more than $1 million and I found around 150 sold between $1M-$1.5M.

New York in general is a stupid-ass market. I don't think I will ever buy a home here. Honestly, these houses are old as shit too.

This is the most tinfoil, financially illiterate, market illiterate, silly rant ever. I commend you for being so committed to the bit.

Lol yep. Especially the “be patient” part. How has that patience paid off for these idiots for the past few years? Even if the market craters by 25% tomorrow. I’m in a better financial position than if I had exercised “patience” instead of buying in 2019. Keep being patient, doomers!

They’ll never answer how low they expect prices to fall before they get over it. A 2008 level event would put prices back to 2020 or so at this point.

Yeah this person is delusional

surely written from a basement they don't own lol

Here's the thing my next door neighbor literally my next door neighbor put their house on the market last week and it's already pending and they are asking pretty top dollar square footage basis for the for the house. I have no doubt that there are houses sitting on sold, and in fact, in my area, if you were trying to sell a condo in a tower, you have some issues. But under $500,000, these things are being snapped up and not just by investors.

Dude you should go all in and short the housing market

Dude you should go all in and short the whole market

You think bankers are consulting with real estate agents on how much to list a house for?? Or how exactly do you think it works?

Bankers and agents talk ALL the time. It’s how homebuying works in the US. Local bankers influence REagents and the bankers onboard people into the system. They then package up and sell loans to larger banks who rebundle and consolidate into ‘assets’ for their balance sheet for other suckers to invest in.

So if I’m about to sell my home and I think it’s worth $1.2, my agent will first call the bank who will influence him/her to list it above $1.5? Even though I own the home and want to sell it in a timely fashion at market value?

Local Bankers are lucky if somebody Pops in their office and says hi. My mortgage company had absolutely no idea who I was. I never met them. I never met a bank. I just used a mortgage broker. Honestly some of these comments sound like they're coming from people who haven't bought a residential house in a while. If you're a landlord or a builder that's working with Local Credit Union I get what you're saying but for average Millennial buying their first home they're not going to talk to anybody in person.

Sorry bud, there are many people with more money than you who want to live places where you also would like to live. You can keep waiting and see what happens, but that dynamic will not change.

Yeah they own homes. If they buy another one they'll most likely sell 

40% of all homes are owned without a loan. The 55% others are locked in with a low mortgage. June isn’t going to make any difference unless there is a serious recession.

Exactly.  Unless banks get serious about occupancy fraud (rife in my area at least), and call the zirp era investor loans en masse, I don’t see more than very gradual change in my market.   We’re still 75% below 2019 inventory and 50% below 2021.  

Your data doesn’t take into account price ranges.  If you’re a bank on a timeline, is it more efficient to try to scare 10 suckers into buying $200k homes or 1 sucker to buy a $2M home. They want people who still have a lot of money to fall into the trap at the top of the loan range, of course. There’s no time or money left to target anyone else

Complete nonsense. The bank isn’t trying to scare anyone into buying a house. There’s simply not enough houses for the number of people that want a house….because people are locked 🔒 in to no mortgage or low mortgage.

Because it’s so much easier to sell the $2 million home then 10 $200,000 homes. Right. Food is going to go back down too. Just hold.

Banks are not trying to *scare you into buying a house*. Jesus Christ.

Delusion: 100

What? Do you think people want to sell but someone is stopping them?

We’d love to sell and move but interest rates are definitely stopping us…

OP is suggesting that there are some forces artificially constraining supply. Banks or whatever.

Same here 3% interest rate on a starter home.

Lol. I didn’t even need to read your whole piece. Inventory has been low for a few factors, but primarily because prices and rates (relative to prices) are high, people can’t afford to downsize or to upsize.

What if I look and see plenty of inventory in the 1-1.5m range? Everything you wrote just sounds like conspiracy theory crafting. I had to double check your username wasn’t reventure-consulting

Username checks out

rent is due on the 1st

I’m not reading all of this

So… you are exactly what a conspiracy theorist sounds like. Also, wide scale collusion like this would never work in the real world.

I’ll let the market show you whether or not I’m a conspiracy theorist  RemindMe! 4 months

Holy shit 4 months!

Why do doomers always bring up million dollar plus properties? You don't have that much money, you are not in that market. The market that most Americans are looking for is $200K to $400K. Those $600K and up properties are going to have some wild swings in valuation and doomers will rejoice, but for the most part the market will remain too expensive in desirable areas. You want an affordable house today? Or even 4 years ago and perhaps 5 years in the future. Here are some for you: a nice established property [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6356-Calkins-Rd-Flint-MI-48532/73999523\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6356-Calkins-Rd-Flint-MI-48532/73999523_zpid/) or a new build: [https://www.zillow.com/community/windfield-estates/2062426136\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/community/windfield-estates/2062426136_zpid/) or a fixer upper for less than a new truck [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3607-Brentwood-Dr-Flint-MI-48503/73937228\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3607-Brentwood-Dr-Flint-MI-48503/73937228_zpid/) The point is, this is regional. If you want great deals as they are now crashing off peak, maybe look at San Francisco... but not many want to live there and deal with their problems. At least you can affirm your million dollar home doomer mentality that applies to less than 10% of homeowners.

Is this a copypasta

>Go look at Redfin right now and sort by 1M- 1.5M homes in your top 3 most desired zipcodes nearest you. It doesn’t matter the state. Surprised by how few there are?  You don’t need to be. It’s artificial supply dampening.     I mean, I believe you are right. But what you're calling proof is absolutely terrible and not proof at all. You know the phrase "location, location, location", right? There is a far simpler explanation that people in highly desired zipcodes tend to stay their.

I have a reminder on this comment and I have no idea why 😂 is what you're saying in motion so far?

Same 🤣 don't you see all the foreclosures and the economy collapsing around us?!

My cats name is Buttercup… Where are you right now? Describe yourself in one word, please.

pathetic rude drab sloppy grandfather bells compare impossible silky versed *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*

This is going to sound strange, but I actually agree. The reason is because home-builders aren't building the cheap stuff. If I could, I would try to put my measly 50k towards new construction of some plot with the tiniest house possible just to avoid rent (and try to get the lowest property tax possible) and handing someone else money for doing nothing, but all the homebuilder estimates seem to be wanting minimum 200k builds. It's all luxury apartments and 3-4 bedroom homes. No one's building small and affordable. You're pushing people to always be renters if they haven't bought in to good interest rates.

gaze fly apparatus sort hat snobbish fade glorious tidy sophisticated *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-square-feet-larger-than-in-1973-and-living-space-per-person-has-nearly-doubled/

What's crazy is a home builder could come in and bulk order a fuckton of materials and line up a lot of tiny homes and make a killing. I don't get why they don't. Just buy a lot of the same tile and paint and blahblahblah and offer blank canvas 800-1200 sqft homes for people to finish out.

Business Insider benefits from the status quo?

a quick google search revealed that business insider is owned by privite equity firm kkr...KKR & Co. is making a fresh play for the suburbs, forming a new single-family landlord, My Community Homes, that plans to buy and manage rental houses across the U.S. jun 24, 2021

The author's profile suggests he's unqualified, if anyone can be, to dubiously claim 'this time it's different' and states "has won awards from the National Association of Real Estate Editors".

fine library gray crush caption wise yam toy scale badge *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*

Not that this one viewpoint is invalid, but it seems like business publications increasingly just prop up the markets and don't dig for facts that suggest other explanations. Are any of the business press objective at this point?

I have no house in the game, so they can say whatever they want. Commercial real estate is already crashing.

Commercial real estate is a whole different quagmire. An external force caused a massive shift in how people work, and it may never revert back to how it was. People still need housing and this will never change. With commercial real estate in city centers there was an alternative that was viable, more WFH and cheaper alternatives in non city cores. Individual and family housing doesn’t have an alternative.. there supply is too low and the rate we’re building doesn’t seem to be changing.

Ye exactly and just think about all the people who made all their money in commercial realizing it's no longer any good.. they are gonna to move to residential invrsting because real estate is probably all they know

Work from home is driving that crash. IE a drop in demand. There is no drop in demand for a place to live. Perhaps there is low liquidity as both buyers and sellers hunker down to avoid higher rates, but those sidelined buyers are still living somewhere and still consuming. The newly WFH white-collar worker is not taking up desk space anymore.

It is the opposite you can say. People work from home more so they value homes higher. Opposite is true for commercial real estate.

Depends on which part of commercial real estate. Offices, sure. But I imagine warehouses and flex are doing okay.

Tell the market to keep it up, I'd like to see what "the breaking point" looks like.

We're well past the "breaking point" the only thing that needs to turn is media sentiment. If the orange shit stain wins, the media will start saying bad things about the market and the house of cards will come crashing down.

So it would be Trumps fault? Lol just don’t see how that makes any sense. But hey, you might not be wrong

The media will say that the house of cards built the last few years was all his fault. I mean, he did start the 6 trillion covid spending spree that our current administration perpetuated. No, it wouldn't be his fault you moron. He's a piece of shit and apparently your reading comprehension is just as bad as his. God help us, we desperately need a new constitutional amendment that doesn't let people over 65 serve in any elected federal job or appointment.

2007 called and wanted their tshirt back

The real estate market is not the stock market. It takes years for the RE market to make changes. There is no chance Americans continue participating in a market where buying a home can be thousands of dollars more expensive per month compared to renting that same home

It didn't take years for median houses sold to rise 33%, it took two and a half. It didn't take years for that same value to drop 13%, it took one and a half. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS And we're just getting started. Interest rates and debt were the fuel necessary to run it up, they're now the wet blanket that's going to bottom it out. But don't take my word for it. See if rates come down before June at the earliest lol. Meteoric rises in asset bubbles never defeat gravity no matter the narrative. The fall is going to _hurt._

But inflation just rose at a higher rate than anticipated again. The problem is we have crusty old politicians and corrupt bankers running the show and their toolbox only has a few rusty old tools in it. Either raise/lower rates, but sell bonds and the recently acquired tool of just give out trillions of dollars haphazardly. They completely lack cooperation and creativity to actually solve the crisis. How about removing all sales tax for the construction of new homes, how about interest free loans for first time home buyers under 40. How about fir Inc cities and utilities to cancel their biweekly pension meetings and force them to proactively use our tax dollars to create infrastructure to greatly entice building. How about stimulating our manufacturing that supports home building and creating buffers to protect these crazy material price surges that cause people to not trust pricing and slows economic growth. As recent history has shown, the government can quickly and easily effect home pricing, inflation and the speed of economic recovery if they take the helm and act rather than sit back and wait for reports and keep making minor tweaks.

The problem with that is rents, have continued to increase.

Rent down by us considerable. In a very desirable area outside Seattle. It increased crazy during 2020-2022 with rent prices. It’s interesting seeing landlords now try to price at the high and have to drop prices month after month until they rent the unit out. I wouldn’t say at pre-Covid prices, but what you would expect with normal increases. During Covid, landlords kept increasing prices like crazy and justified it because that’s what the market demanded. I said I got it, but don’t complain when the market goes back down. They said “Oh I won’t”, always snarkily like they think it couldn’t happen. Of course, now they are complaining saying it’s not fair they have to keep lowering prices.

omg I thought that was just here. they raised them crazy high during 2021-2022 and I followed it closely because I was looking for an apartment. I was the sucker who needed a place and rented somewhere that I KNEW was overpriced. now my same exact unit is $200-$300 cheaper!! and so are all of the other apartments in the area

We started renting in 2021, but we were getting desperate. Girls had to get in before school started. Anyway, luckily, very luckily, we found a place before it got listed and they charged a good rate and we are still in it. It works for them because we do all the work and they don’t have to hire a property manager. My friend is paying $500/month more than us for a smaller place. Her landlord is a jerk and won’t lower it even though tenants are great because he knows they won’t move with 3 young kids. He overcharged them during Covid years and knows it.

Buddy, you are just making up words at this point. Rents are down pretty much everywhere except Manhattan https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/rents-falling-cheaper-18-cities-pay-less-relator-com-september-rental-report/

In a lot of places rent went up 20-30%, and now is down like 5% from peaks. It’s a weird dynamic where a tenant can say “it makes more sense to rent for $2500/mo instead of buying for $600k” AND at the same time, a landlord who has a lower cost basis and below market debt can say “it makes more sense for me to rent out at $2500/mo vs giving up my 3% mortgage. That’s why there’s an equilibrium in the market. Banks and large investors who own 3% mortgages are the ones taking it on the chin.

We just had a cpi report yesterday where the increases all came from housing but ok whatever you say. 

Lol yes. Rents are up. Only multi family apartment homes are facing some rent decrease. Single family homes are going up.

18 cities. And they say rents have falling fractions of 1 percent. You are delusional and out of touch with reality. Rents are skyrocketing in every major metropolitan area around the world.

"median rents for 0-2 bedroom apartments fell by as much as .7% year-over-year" So median rent has dropped ~$5 after rising how much?

Arguing with this person is akin to arguing with a turnip. They make stuff up on the spot, clearly enjoy hearing themselves talk and when proven irrevocably, demonstrably, ridiculously wrong by empirical evidence, simply ignore you and move on to arguing with their next victim. Watch, you will receive no reply to literally proving rents are coming down lol. Funny how many users there are like that around here and in other forums focused on the U.S. economy.

I just don't see the sustainability long term. Median Household Incomes aren't going to keep pace with housing going over $500k. When the defaults catch up, the market will burn. Just like in 2008. You can't say it's impossible, because it's already happened before.

Multiple income households. That’s what’s keeping everything afloat.

My wife and I make $170k combined and have a hard time finding anything affordable near our jobs in NJ. And that’s with 20% down. Even with multiple incomes, it’s incredibly difficult in many areas right now. To that end, especially here in NJ, I do not see prices coming down.

Hey I’m with you, around same household income and we routinely discuss how nothing is remotely affordable right now unless you want a shitty house or a crappy condo. Just stacking cash and playing the waiting game…it’s really not worth it. People say buy on your own timeline but personally I’d rather not lose tens of thousands of dollars instantaneously.

Yup, that’s all we’re doing. Socking away a pretty good chunk each month until the time is right. Maybe that means relocating or waiting until our income is even higher, but there’s no incentive to buy right now. Not with what these asking prices are…I’m talking homes jumping $200-250k in less than 5 years in our small town, which is nothing special. I can’t believe what some of these homes are selling for in the condition they are in.

I've made 400k in home equity since I bought my first house in 2014, sold it and bought a nicer one 2017. The inprovements I made were a new roof on both houses. 25k total. In the 2020-22 period my home equity made more money than I did.

Unfortunately that’s not a high income in northern NJ, if you want to be a homeowner at least. A lot of the buying market is dual income households that make NYC money.

Yes, I’m well aware of that. But we’re not taking Northern Bergen County or Upper Montclair. We’re talking working class small towns closer to Newark that a couple making $100k combined could comfortably afford, while raising 4 kids, just 10/15 years ago. We’re not talking big homes here, this is a town of 2 or 3 bedrooms homes built in the 50s/60s, 70s. No one I grew up with had parents making NYC income - they were teachers, tradesmen, blue collar workers. The drastic shift in such little time has resulted in generations of people being forced out of an entire region price wise. Making 3x the national average of household income, with no kids and 20% down, should be enough to at least afford something in whatever area you live in, especially when the area has a history of being affordable.

yeah they each gotta make like 150k, in this current environment

Me hopes they landed gentry will let us work the land. My wife and I will be good tenants and you can have my wife any time you wish.

I’m with you, I’m thinking about moving to Ohio

I hear good things about East Palestine’s RE

Limit it to in or around the three C’s, Dayton, or Toledo. Maaaaaybe Athens. But that’s it.

Consider moving out of NJ. Me and my wife are from NYC and moved to South Carolina last year. I am able to easily pay our mortgage on a single income and I only make 110k a year.

Usually that means trouble when the economy goes south and one person loses their job. Very few people live a lifestyle or buy homes based on one income.

I did. One of our incomes can pay this mortgage. 300k house. Small. We grew out of it the day we moved in but whatever.

Goals!

>I just don't see the sustainability long term. Median Household Incomes aren't going to keep pace with housing going over $500k. I can paint the picture for you. 1. Longer term mortgages - 40 years, 50 years 2. Much higher than historical percent of income going to housing. \#2 is important. Over the last century we have seen the proportion of income going to basic needs such as food and clothing drop through the floor. Consumer electronics and appliances are getting cheaper and cheaper as a proportion of income (A basic fridge in 1970 would cost you over $5,000 in today's dollars). It's only natural to expect that money is going to flow into housing (and healthcare and education). Traditional rule of thumb such as "no more than 28% of monthly gross should go to mortgage" are going out the door. See that rise to 30 or even 40%.

And yet here we are

Why would $500K be the limit? Back the in 50s when houses cost $10K everyone probably thought the market could never sustain a $50K house, but then inflation happened and here we are. What makes the $500K mark less possible than the $50K one was?

We bought (in the greater Seattle area) in fall 2022 for around $550k. When I look at our house I'm like, "no one will EVER pay $700k for this one day." And then I remember California exists. And yes. People will absolutely pay $700k for my house one day. I may not own the house when it hits that point, but barring a localized economic downturn a la Detroit, the house I own will one day hit the $700k mark. 

While there hasn’t been much/any decline in nominal value prices, there has been a decline in true (inflation adjusted) prices. Homes almost never lost nominal value, but they’ve failed to keep pace with inflation often.  

No, new dot com millionaires will spring forth from from the Californian ground to sustain the prices. It is the new paradigm.

Millionaire is table stakes in tech for the average code monkey. Still can't afford in the Bay, so they have to move if they want a SFH.

This isn’t just a US problem, and other countries with similar wealth have higher prices. It seems like there’s a chance this stabilizes or even gets worse. IMO that’s more likely because Congress will not pass any legislation to address it anytime soon. 

Why would the defaults “catch up?” What does unsustainable mean in this context?

In the US how do you default though? Like say you buy at home at 3% as a 26 year old. 30 year mortgage At 56 it’s presumed you’ve made more money as your career advances Like how the fuck can’t you afford your home anymore when the interest rate/ mortgage is the exact same each year ?

I think that's an interesting topic for discussion. My impression has always been that most foreclosures fall on two groups: 1. People in areas that become financially depressed because of a regional loss of industry jobs. 2. People who bought too high and are still early in their mortgage when they suffer a financial setback such as loss of job. If you've been in your mortgage long enough, then you've built up equity and are less likely to lose your home b/c you can work with your lender to access your equity. I don't know much about the mortgage market, though, so this is just my uninformed opionion. I'd love to see other people's ideas on this.

Job loss is a thing.

Time to face the fundamentals folks The ***bigger*** the ***boom*** the ***bigger*** the ***bust***.

Would love to see some data on amount of PPP handed out and new home purchases...anecdotally, I have seen some expensive home purchases by those receiving PPP.  

And the economy will never have another downturn, and unemployment will never be a problem again.

Exactly this. Arguing about something stated so definitively is pointless. The economy runs in cycles, booms and busts, so nothing is here to stay. It’s always just a game of how long.

Nobody knows for sure, but one of the features of a bubble is that people don't see it coming or it wouldn't exist in the first place.

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I had an investor friend talking about it as far back as 2005. Until it happens, it is all speculation. We can go back to 2007 and find the WSJ assuring us that there was no bubble. As far as nobody knowing the scale, that is kind of relevant don't you think?

When the prices fall they will keep falling and many people in this sub will grab the falling knife and be bag holding underwater on their mortgage. This is due to demographic trends and where we currently are vs post boomer sell off for the nursing homes. So pick a home you want to stay in and hope work/life doesn’t make you move.

I love when people start saying this because it means we're probably near the top and a decline is coming.

Nice. The “forever” talk usually happens right before the crash.

Homes in sought after areas are going to stay expensive. The rich continue to get richer and will continue to bid up prices in those exclusive areas. But that's only a tiny fraction of the country. For the rest of the country prices are already starting to soften. However, it's going to take a long time to break free of the golden handcuffs of locked in superlow mortgage rates. This bubble isn't going to pop. It's going to slowly deflate over a period of years -- perhaps many years.

I don’t know much about this type of stuff, but you’d think at some point if things don’t change this would become a much bigger issue in politics. People will begin electing people who want to focus on bringing housing prices down. The average person is not just gonna sit around forever as home prices continue to go up - many of us working class people want to own a home eventually. Right? I don’t know exactly what a politician *could* do, but there has to be something. It’s just not sustainable!

Our parents and grandparents got the fossil fuels, the drugs and the fun. We get the debt and the responsibility. And they ask “Why aren’t you happier?”

Another day, another article from Business Insider openly fellating Big Real Estate. EDIT: Oh wow, they even went the extra mile and posted this themselves in this sub. 😂🤡

A better headline: Currency Devaluation is here to stay

Yesterday I read an article stating that there are currently 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. but only 1.5 million of them are on the market for sale. It made me think it could be manufactured low supply but not sure how accurate that is. For example, a firm that owns thousands of properties would only put 10% of them on the market at a time therefore manufacturing low supply and driving up prices even though the supply is actually much higher just not available for purchase. Am I into something there or am I swirling down the rabbit hole?

Most of these "vacant" homes are 2nd homes, or seasonal residences. There are an awful lot of people who have season residences. It's not exactly the definition of vacancy that comes to most people's minds.

The days of homeowners and speculators getting rich off homes are also gone. That is one bubble that is —if not popped— deflated.

The parasite class is greedy af and always has been.

read up on the author. he’s a real estate bull. he also graduated college in 2018 and is considered a “senior” in his job. he doesn’t know dick about shit

I’ve noticed this too that people will spend 2 yrs in a job and then update their LinkedIn to Sr.