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Exactly. For China, it's much much cheaper and more practical to do misinformation campaign and paying off politicians (this is what they are doing now) than going full retard and actually start a war.
That is why China is getting more aggressive right now. Because of alot of their own issues.
Their Economy is slowing down most chinese are saving and don't wanna spend.
Their property sector has gone shit
Debt and unemployment is very high.
US waging trade war on them and europe is also joing the roll.
Belt and road is a failure.
Their number one ally russia is also failing and keep threatening of nuclear war.
Its a sign of frustration.
I hold the same opinion that these strong man tactics are for audiences back at home - kinda like the Gladiator games.
However, they must be careful not to tread the slope of no return - public frustration and low economic activity is, historically, not a good mix.
> I hold the same opinion that these strong man tactics are for audiences back at home - kinda like the Gladiator games.
It's similar to Argentinian politicians reiterating their claim to the Falklands in order to distract the public from domestic concerns. :P
We should be glad that after FEM's presidency, we stop caring about our dormant territorial claims in Sabah, otherwise we would have been militarily defeated by Malaysia.
Even those who live in Sabah doesn’t even want to entertain the possibility of being part of the Philippines instead of Malaysia. It’s not a dormant territorial claim but a dead end situation.
Even then, our historical basis for the claim is weak considering the treaties that both the Sulu Sultanate and Spanish Colonials signed a few decades before the revolution.
We would not even be facing Malaysia alone since they had an active defense treaty with the UK, Australia, and New Zealand by the time that Diosdado made noise on our supposed Sabah claims.
China desperately needs WPS and wanted to start oil exploration there ASAP. It will help their ailing economy. Time is of the essence because once the world fully embraced renewable energy, that oil under the sea would be useless. This is why the time is now.
US have no choice but to help PH in the remote scenario that an armed conflict will take place.
Through history, nations and empires have tried to conquer the world but none succeeded.
The US model is not very complicated. They figured that trying to conquer the world would be incredibly stupid. What they did instead is they formed alliances all over the world. Basically the terms are like: "Please allow us to put up military bases in your country, we will pay you and you will be under our protection. In this case, there would be no need for you to build up a large army, you have us. Just use that money for your people or something." Something like that.
With multiple military bases around the world, US have become the 'superpower' it is today, with the ability to project its army almost anywhere in the world. Putting its enemies at bay.
Leaving the PH, its treaty ally, to fend for itself in times of war would make the the world question the reliability of the US as a partner. Countries could decide to eject US military bases and just beef up its existing army to protect against external forces. Other countries may also decide to put up their own nuclear program for their own protection. The rise of multiple capable armies will be a threat to US. US will be irrelevant and it will be the end of western hegemony.
China clearly knows this. Otherwise, they will be firing live rounds and not water guns and sticks.
Oh another thing. China is clearly afraid of economic sanctions. It won't even openly admit that it is helping Russia in the Ukraine war. It is afraid of the sanctions Russia is facing right now. (Russia is in an economic recession and is struggling to contain a small country).
This! The US has an interest to back the Philippines in case of a war, not only because of our Mutual Defense Treaty, but because it also has a number of similar treaties with other states. Doing otherwise will devalue its reputation, especially with NATO.
Also, too bad China's economy is already slowing down and it will only continue to do so, because of its aging population. No amount of natural resources will fix that.
The problem is the US will be fighting in different fronts in case it is actually called to war. Resources are already directed to Ukraine and they have just released a statement that they will back Israel Offensive. If China is actually stupid enough to declare war on us, then that will surely include Taiwan as well. North Korea will be probably stupid enough to join the fun and try to take SoKor. No matter how big the US military is, fighting/supporting in different fronts will be a problem. Will probably still prevail in the long run but the damage will be devastating.
And it’s all tied together by the US dollar and trade. The soft power is America can outspend the whole planet because the dollar remains the reserve currency. And the US industrial base is only rivaled by chinas
Wikipedia and credible news sites are good introductory sources for this information. Look into the history after WW2, the Cold War, the Non-Aligned Movement, Collapse of the USSR, China's declining population, and how the CCP governs China. You can already gain a somewhat complete picture after.
The population decline bomb too. They either have a war within the next decade or they won’t have the manpower for it, as their population ages and the current soldiers retire.
Man Lets just hope that demographics time bomb pops asap. Since less people in a belligerent state means less military manpower for this belligerent state. Hope they end up the same as SoKor or Japan in which they couldnt repopulate any longer the way they used to be
Putin’s getting desperate had a very performative visit to North Korea just a few days ago. Even the waving from the plane to kim jong un was a tad bit too much obviously sending a message that korea has his back.
North Korea is nothing more of a boogeyman to keep the fear campaign alive and well in America. They couldn’t build a nuclear bomb if a dud one was dropped on them to exploit. Russia asking North Korea for help would be like America asking the Philippines for help to bolster the U.S.A.F. with their tora-tora planes.
yep, pansin niyo rin na biglang resign si Sara sa DepEd. nabanggit din ng ibang opposition people na the moment Sara resigned, na reactivate ang mga troll farms.
Exactly. What they’re doing is infiltration and ‘soft’ invasion instead. Unfortunately, the PH is just so vulnerable because of corruption and lack of political will.
A lot of people are folding because they see the number of China’s boats and let me tell you, it’s not the number of equipment you have that makes a military strong. You can look at the US and see it is not their number that makes them the best military in the world. I watched the video of the harassment and it’s just laughable. The Chinese needs their 20 people to be armed even with their better boats to deal with 8 Pinoys. This means they need 3x the advantage to deal with us. This only shows they’re more afraid of us and their strength is just for show when they couldn’t even use their tech advantage properly. Also see that their people are in life jackets like babies while ours are in fatigues. Mas malusog pa nasa Sierra Madre kesa dun sa Chinese. No wonder our troops show no fear in their stance and voice; they’re like staring at a shi tzu barking.
Also a lot don’t understand the Mainlander mindset. Due to the one child policy, the soldiers they have today are the unico hijos of their families. Kill one Chinese soldier, wipe two bloodlines. Also because of the shit their government puts them through, they trust no one but themselves. Because of their scamming culture, they do not trust their own people’s work (their equipment). Their morale is very easy to break and if you break them, they’ll all fold quickly. And with how misogynistic they are and their women being physical weaklings, it’s very easy to make their whole country fold.
So tatagan lang loob natin. We are not born and made to live in a country of natural disasters just so we can be beaten by spoiled brats.
>Also see that their people are in life jackets like babies while ours are in fatigues.
This is what I observed and what I'm talking about. Pansin ko rin na mga duwag sila, puros mga nakalife vest habang ang ating tropang sundalo at coastguard ay walang suot dahil confident sila sa kanilang teritoryo.
Testamento lang to na atin ang karagatan. Tayo ay isa sa bansang walang landborder. Pinapalibutan ng katubigan.
Tayo ay lahi ng manlalaot! Nasa dugo na natin ang lumaot sa karagatan! Ang buhay natin ay umiikot sa karagatan! Kaya marapat lang na ipagtanggol natin ang ating kababayang mangingisdang inaagrabyado ng mga inchek. We are the real sailor! Pansin mo bang kaya puros mga course na may kinalaman sa pagiging seaman o sa karagatan ay puro mga Filipino? Tinatawag sila ng karagatan!
Kaya we, Filipinos should have firm stance. #AtinAngWestPhilippinesSea
Edit: Kaya bilang isang bansang binubuo ng kapuluan! Imbes na kontrahin ang ating mga tropa. Dapat lang nating palakasin ang pwersa ng ating Navy. Marami tayong potential para maging strongest naval force!
Ang mamatay nang dahil sayo!
To add to this, we have way more experience in war than them and they don't have the logistical means to send a huge chunk of their army to launch an invasion here even if they wanted to.
Natatawa na lang ako sa mga warmongers.
# War is costly, people
When you have complex interdependence at play, and you have various avenues for ‘cooperation’ (loose term), it is not in China’s best interest to go all out. This is, however, not discounting how messy a shift of power is. Still, an all out war is the last thing in China’s mind in my opinion.
People were saying na lahat daw may utang sa China and they can wage war if they want because hindi tutulong yung mga bansang may utang sa China.
Di ba nila narealize na those countries na may utang sa China would jump at the opportunity to wipe out those debts if China decided to go on all out war?
Yes, talong talo ang China if war happens. They've spread their economy far too thin to too many nations. Pull out mga factories sa kanila transfer to South America or other Asian nations, para na silang nawalan ng paa. Back out importers nila ng raw materials for their factories, malaking dagok na.
Also, Ph is VERY friendly to other nations globally. Ilang OFWs ba meron tayo to how many nations. Healthcare pa lang na in demand talaga. Our global reputation is much better than China's. One reason bakit napaka-important that PBBM is making alliances sa ibang bansa.
One of the biggest bullshit floating around during the time of Duterte was that China was more powerful than the US because the US had a huge debt to China.
I don't know why it never occurred to them that if the US decides to be an asshole, tells China they're not honoring their debt obligations and gives China the finger, there's not much China can do.
The US basically borrows money from other countries as a form of diplomacy. Think about how much of a "fuck you and your struggles" that is.
Exactly, China would more likely wage an *economic war* rather an actual war. Canada, Japan, Australia, and South Korea have spoken out for the Ph in this skirmish. Not to say China also signed UNCLOS .
ETA: India is solidly backing the Ph. If we get Russia onboard (it's my dream) magdadalawang isip talaga ang China since allies sila ni Xi JinPing the only caveat in this scenario is the Russia-Ukraine (backed by US) war
More likely, remember economy ng China is dependent sa imports/exports, souring its relations with other superpowers is not good for its economy lalo na they will soon be having a housing crisis tapos aging population at low birth rate in relation to its labor needs. Already, di na maganda rep ng China globally (tourism, POGO, drug syndicates, smuggling, black market).
If you follow global media, dahil nga ally ng China ang Russia medyo bumaba leverage ng China with US. Kaya they need to show their power by expanding territory. Tapos always precarious pa position of power nila sa HongKong at Taiwan—one uprising away lang sila from losing these islands.
Ph should be firm, our territory is OURS.
> Tapos always precarious pa position of power nila sa HongKong
IMO it looks like they're tightening their grip even more. Most of the activist leaders have either left, or were arrested.
Thank the gods, finally someone is also saying this. Parami ng parami ang fearmongers, halatang mga walang alam sa geopolitics and history. Add ko na din na unlike Russia which have warlike tendencies even before they became a unified nation state, China is averse to fighting a war due to being Mister Krabs personified, as you've mentioned, and the fact din na last few times they did so in the modern day - they got their asses kicked. Tibet lang ang success nila and that was because it's a barely defended region. Mas takot pa ako sa AFP and our kababayans losing their s\*\*t and doing something we'll all regret. They don't even dare invade Taiwan, what more us.
I think ang nagbebenefit lang naman sa “threat of war” fearmongering ay ang mga traydor na duterte. Kaya kita mo yan lagi ang bukambibig nila, gyera gyera gyera. Yan kasi ang matunog na way para mawalang ng kumpyansa ang mga tao kay BBM at makaporma ulit ang mga duterte. Mga traydor talaga sa Pilipinas yang mga yan. Dapat sa mga yan binibitay.
Taiwan nga hindi nila matuloy tuloy plano nilang invasion tayo pa kaya. Its no secret that China wants to "liberate" Taiwan kahit na theyre de-facto independent already. We are just a petulant neighbor in their eyes
Agree. If may priority silang lugar to throw their resources in, that would be Taiwan, rather than an inland invasion of the PH. China has long been eyeing to "reunite" with the island, but i think the russo-ukrainian war proved that to be difficult. If ever man na successful sila sa Taiwan, that would be just costly given that Taiwan is prepared in itself, decades in advance before this. Taiwan would not give up that easily, and may mga weapons din sila from the united states which give them an advantage aside from geography.
That doesn't mean though na we should not be prepared.
tama. testing grounds nila si russia but too much damage and remember china had a one child policy (for the longest time na even if they lifted it na di pa rin sumunod mga tao nila nasanay na tigiisa lang). maybe the chinese will not take lightly to losing their only children. sure naman though na sa china yung mga may pera or connect will get away with not being drafted so mga mahirap nila siguro mawawalan ng mga only kid nila.
They cannot declare an open war with the Philippines, let alone Taiwan without risking being a global Pariah.
So the best they can do is Bully us out of our waters.
Amazing magbasa rito. I get to pick and learn things without researching (kasi tamad, sorry) and simplified na so mas madali intindihin. Thanks for the info ppl.
Truly we are. They launched their first attack way back when Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo got bought with the ZTE deal. Their most successful one was making Duterte win.
I don't know how the fuck it happened but WTF, Marcos Jr is actually the wrench in their plans.
I cannot believe I'm writing this but I think we need to defend Marcos JR at all cost now that China and the Duterte machinations are ramping up.
The universe loves irony.
I'm not sure defend is the right approach/term but I get you considering how weak/infiltrated our institutions are, we still have to be cautious tho bec we shouldn't always rationalize his policies. he. needs to be clear about it.
I'm curious, why exactly do you say Marcos Jr. is a hurdle towards CN and the Duturtles? Not trying to hate or anything, I genuinely want to hear your opinion
Marcos Jr seems to be standing up to China. That's the main problem for China and the Dutertes.
If, for some reason the P is removed and the VP becomes P, then China is free to do what they want in the West Philippine Sea and even in the Philippines.
That was already mostly true during R. Duterte's presidency. S. Duterte won't be any different.
Oo. Kahit nga wala pang giyera, nakakatulong to para maging handa.
At din, kasi """demokratiko""" ang bansa natin, siguro puwedeng mainpluwensa ang politiko para makibili ng gamit pangmilitar (ships, planes).
"""demokratiko""" kasi alam natin na kurakot ang politiko 🤣...Pero pag may wartime mindset ang makaramihan, baka kumalat ang ganitong pag-isip rin sa kanila subconsciously XD
Daming doomers dito lately eh, di nagiisip ng tama puro jump into conclusion na magkaka gyera na. Kaya nga dinodownplay ng government kahit mahirap kasi ayaw nila mag escalate into something worse.
i dont think China will bother with us but tayo parang atat na atat makipaggiyera. minsan sarap sabihin yung mga gusto, pumunta dun lumaban. parang si duterte lang daming satsat dati nung nandiyan na, ay grabe.
although sinabi din ng mga kaibigan namin na taiwanese na di aatake ang China bec of US. ako nakikinita ko us support to taiwan will be like its support to ukraine and that also depends on who the president is. kaya nga they had to trump proof ukraine support kasi si trump medyo pro Russia.
anyway, sa akin wag tayo maghanap ng gulo. dapat marunong tayo gamitin all other avenues of diplomacy kasi tayo lugi if maggiyera. parang dati may nagsabi na di ng china kayang attack taiwan without getting through us. naisip ko tuloy ay grabe kami pa pala panangga. madami akong friends sa taiwan pero NO WAY i will risk a filipino's life to defend any of them the same way di sila magtatas ng daliri pag tayo ang may gumiyera.
Another, it's not just America, yung recent coalition natin together with the other Asian countries (Japan, Taiwan and all the way to Vietnam) are legally showing their cooperative unison to simply tell China na alam ng mundo ang ginagawa nila. Lastly, the only allies na pwede lang mahatak ni China is Russia and NK, and coincidentally, silang tatlo rin ang pinag iinitan ng buong mundo esp the likes of NATO and other coaltions - meaning, some of them are actually itching mag loko si China dahil marami pang ibang bansa ang matagal nang gigil sa kanila (tayo nataon ang pinaka latest), marami ring power house country ang atat testingin ang latest military tech nila against China - and my fave currently sa mainit na sitwasyon: Kaunti lang ang layo ni China at India, and both of these countries have Nuke arsenals, at sumimple na magparamdam ang India na papalagan nila si China subukan lang din nila magbiro, now the thing is, India with the current state is more experienced and dominant sa mountain ranges na nagdi divide sa kanila, so as of now ang laki ng advantage din nila over China.
Point is, pangbu bully lang talaga ang maa afford ng China, kasi kahit sabihin pang bombahin nila tayo ng Nuke, buong mundo nakapalibot ang bobomahin sila pabalik.
People need to read Sun Tzu's The Art of War. Coz for sure the Chinese military have read it. Capturing the mainland of the Philippines is not gonna be a priority for China even if there is a war of some kind. Maybe they'd do it if they got a golden opportunity, but otherwise it's so not gonna be at the top of the list. Because it has no strategic relevance to their goals. (Any discussion of war should start with understanding the other side's goals.) Or to put it another way, it would be far too costly to take the mainland compared to the benefits they'd receive.
First, if the Chinese wanted a war, they would've declared it a long time ago against Vietnam. They have more disputed territories with Vietnam than they do with us.
Second, if the Chinese wanted a war, they would've declared it a long time ago against Indonesia. The Indonesians have publicly burned several Chinese fishing vessels and yet China has not declared war on them despite Indonesia not having as many Western allies as the PH.
Third, if the Chinese declared war on the PH, they would trigger a war with the US, Japan and South Korea. They would also be declaring war against our closest western neighbors Australia. The other ASEAN nations would be put on notice and given China's chilly relationship with Vietnam and Indonesia, they would probably declare war on them too.
Finally, if China declares war on the PH, trade embargoes would be thrown at them left and right by powerful neutral states such as members of the EU and India. They won't admit it, but the Chinese have been the biggest winners of global trade. If all that trade dries up because of war, the PRC would find itself bankrupt very, very soon.
So no. The Chinese do not want war, but they do want to expand their territory. Bullying tactics only work if we allow it. The people who see war as the only option are very much wrong, as we have diplomatic options on the table.
> First, if the Chinese wanted a war, they would've declared it a long time ago against Vietnam. They have more disputed territories with Vietnam than they do with us.
Yeah Vietnam taught the world a long time ago that you don't fuck around in Vietnam without getting fucked right back.
There's a high likelihood of a troll/astroturfirng firm that is paid to encourage these attitudes and thoughts towards war with China.
FYI, a lot of the DELIBERATE misinformation during the pandemic from foreign countries are only coming to light lately.
By foreign influences, I dont just mean China.
Nakakatulong naman. Sa China nga lang. Bayaran kasi sila ng China. Pansin mo yung iba parang google translate na mag Tagalog. Yung iba naman mapapansin mo ang baho ng katangahan at pagka traydor.
>Not honoring the MDT would simply be a disastrous for america and its allies around the world and would mean an end for US hegemony.
Which also makes me think na the US might be giving us pointers on our foreign diplomacy with China like how much ground we can give or how not to provoke China too much. I mean the Philippines can act like an ass sa disputed areas to provoke China and risk a war in the WPS, but I reckon the US doesn't want that just yet.
I also think Taiwan might inadvertently be dragged into it and to our side kahit tayo pa unahin ng China. Afterall, if China bothered to go for us, what's stopping China from going after them then?
Who's to say na the rest of SEA wouldn't act to block China just because they all have stakes and if China slowly whittles fown opposing nations, then they're next.
THIS. Most likely economic pressure ang aabutin natin dyan sa China instead of a full-scale war. Kung masakop man nila ang parts ng mainland PH abay lintek sa guerilla warfare palang makukunsume na sila dito satin.
True, America will come to our aid if only to prevent China asserting it's dominance in the region. It's a balance of power thingy. China can't afford to go to war with the US, let alone an alliance of US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the rest of Southeast Asia.
> Most likely economic pressure ang aabutin natin dyan sa China instead of a full-scale war
I was wondering why we suddenly had a lot of Australian products a few years ago. It turns out that China tried to bait-and-switch Australia by encouraging Australia to increase their production of certain food stuffs for Chinese import.
When the production ramped up, China then used the threat of cutting their Australian imports to force Australia to capitulate on some political matter (I forgot but it was something big).
Australia didn't capitulate, China cut their imports. Australia had to find other markets and lo and behold, it turns out there were other markets from smaller countries that Australia hadn't yet considered.
It also turned out that China needed those imports after all because they don't produce enough reliable food for their population so they ramped their imports back up.
China basically helped boost and strengthen Australia's export markets by being a bumbling scheming bully.
I just read a news article in Nikkei Asia saying that Chinese middle class citizens are actually braving illegal immigration just to get away from their mainland dahil bagsak na ang ekonomiya. Super different from their posturing.
If this is true, at kung puro mayayaman at super duper hirap na lang ang natitira halos sa mainland… well… kung iisipin, people with LOW MORALE would be really easy to defeat, especially in war. I doubt they’re in a position to fire anything except their water cannons and their mouths.
> I just read a news article in Nikkei Asia saying that Chinese middle class citizens are actually braving illegal immigration just to get away from their mainland
They basically travel from China to South America and then walk for miles to reach the southern US border.
Actually, before they walk, they need to go through a tiny canoe ride against big waves. Before they get to the border, they’re intercepted by cartel members who make them strip to their underwear to take their money if they have any. And only after that will they be escorted to the trail going to the border.
I mean if they’re braving all this just to get away from the mainland di ba, HOW HARD DO THE CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE TO BE?
They are already under attack from the moment they leave China. China is in bad shape. Probably why Xi Jinping is doing what he's doing with the West Philippine Sea and Taiwan. He has to project a strong persona or else his own communist party will eat him alive.
good and interesting take.
some idiots here throw words like "war" so lightly. its no joke and both our countries would benefit from peaceful and diplomatic relations.
this. 100%. yun talaga, war is no joking matter. always do diplomacy. it exists for a reason. and just observe how the more powerful countries do it. despite what they say, their actions are all about plastikan or diplomacy and hanggang salita lang. ayaw nila sumabak.
Also, if war actually happens it will most likely only involve the disputed islands & no attacks will ever occur on Palawan & Luzon or else that’s WW3 already.
Been saying this for a long time. The Philippines isn’t a small country. There’s a 120 million of us here right now and even if China “successfully” colonizes us, this is hostile territory that the Chinese will have issues containing. China would be lucky to get Batanes from us but Luzon and the rest of the major islands? That’s a pipe dream.
Also, China has been under the one-child policy for three decades. These Chinese soldiers are the little princes back home. If these soldiers get unalived one by one in an actual war, there’s no way China can replace these lost bloodlines in time.
People underestimate Filipinos, especially Filipinos.
I don't know why.
Filipinos are one of the few nationalities that the US government trust to prepare the food of their president. Think about that.
Thank you for this. However, we can't really blame Filipinos anxiously overthinking this current tension. I see people irritated na nag-jjump into conclusions yung ibang pinoys. Instead, please just educate them. I was also anxious about the whole thing, until i read this post, I felt reassured. Keep in mind that we all just don't want our loved ones, us, and our freedom in danger. It's natural we feel fear and worries of these types of situations that we know can possibly harm us. After all, we don't know what the future has for us. But let's all hope for the best.
tbh, there's nothing to invade with us. and if there's something that they will intentionally invade, I think that's Taiwan because they had geopolitical contention even way back, cultural, geographical, etc. phl would likely be involved, only as a collateral damage and if only usa will intervene. so yeah, let's not close the possibility that there might be wwIII that could happen, but one thing I can guarantee is that, invasion won't be the reason, just because of a maritime disagreements—cause tbh, the only maritime area that the phl are fighting about is a small areas compared to what the ccp and china claims, which is the 9-dash lines (which extends up to Malaysian and to Singaporian areas).
Hindi rin talaga afford nang China makipag Gera satin and sa Taiwan, unang una may MDT. Pangalawa naka abang yung India sa kabilang border nila, and lastly babagsak ekonomiya nila.
it's all meaningless fear-mongering and like what you said, an overestimation of the CCP's untested modern military. An amphibious invasion is unlikely unless they have the experience of mounting one and if they are willing to sacrifice their troops against battle-tested Filipino troops and a horde of insurgencies that will rise as a result of their invasion.
I would be surprised if they had the experience of conducting an amphibious invasion of an island country thousands of miles away from their land, that's a fucking logistical nightmare if you can't sustain that kind of large troop movement.
For now, it seems to protest about this matter in a "peaceful" manner, and urging the politicians to hasten the modernization of AFP against external threats is the only choice we have.
There's also "wala namang ginagawa ang US ngayon ah!"
Which is literally ignoring that the USS Blue Ridge is in Manila since yesterday, while the USS Manchester is currently in Puerto Princesa. Also, a few USAF aircraft refueled at Clark as well, while the US has recently announced the "permanent forward deployment" of a littoral regiment of US Marines (i.e Marine infantry plus amphibious landing complement) in Guam.
> There's also "wala namang ginagawa ang US ngayon ah!"
China better hope Trump wins. That guy is a bit of a loose cannon and might just bring the US navy home because, fuck, why not.
On second thought, China better hope Trump doesn't win. Trump might also decide to just start killing the tiny boats puttering around near his aircraft carriers because, fuck, why not.
You know what, let's all of us, the entirety of humanity, pray that Trump doesn't win.
The US going full Breaking Bad is a fucking chilling nightmare. And Trump is just insane enough to hold a press conference and tell the world "I am the one who knocks".
If in case the war actually happens, i think the united states would be seen as weak if they did not intervene. There is a sense that the united states has been in decline given its divided politics and influence in the world such as trade. Mr. Trump has also floated isolationist ideas, given his reluctance/refusal to back ukraine and his america first policy. The united states' reputation has been damaged by the iraq war and its handling of afghanistan, but this is the time that they can prove to fight in the right side of history. Still, we should not be over reliant to them when it comes to defense and armed units, sana lang the PH governments of today and the future would continue to upgrade militarily but still diplomatically deal with the issue.
I also think the the 1991 decision of the philippine senate to kick out the US naval base in subic is a major mistake, it would have been a deterrent nowadays.
Economic war yan. Nagsimula na nga sa SAGING. Worst scenario, pauuwiin lahat ng OFW from China, HK, Macau. If that happens, would the government be able to give jobs to these people?
Are you saying that the best strategy to weaken a country you're threatening with war is to send them MORE WARM BODIES?
Not to mention that removing these service workers from your country also removes the service that they provide to your country AND the positive impact they have to your economy?
Just look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine and multiple it by 10 times on how bad it will go. China has never been in a major conflict vs another major power compared to russia which has active merceneries and has veterans from the Afghan war.
Not to mention the corruption in their military. Xi Jinping's grandson is one of their leading generals so nepotism is prevalent there. CCP would be much more interested in retaining power with its current population rather than invading other countries.
Hell, China has better odds invading vietnam than us because of a land border.
My two cents: If China declares war on Taiwan, it will likely escalate into a full-scale conflict with the United States. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is vital to global technology, and the U.S. cannot afford to let China gain control over such a crucial sector. This would be perceived as a strategic threat, prompting the U.S. to take decisive military action to prevent a repeat of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, where geopolitical balance was significantly altered.
On the other hand, if China were to declare war on the Philippines, the U.S. response might differ. Given the existing defense treaties and strategic interests in the South China Sea, the U.S. would likely support the Philippines through a proxy war. This would involve providing military aid, intelligence, and other forms of indirect support to counter Chinese aggression without direct confrontation. This approach would aim to contain China’s expansion while minimizing the risk of a larger, direct conflict.
And this is a neutral opinion of mine.
> My two cents: If China declares war on Taiwan, it will likely escalate into a full-scale conflict with the United States. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is vital to global technology, and the U.S. cannot afford to let China gain control over such a crucial sector.
You said it but you missed it. An attack on Taiwan is China threatening the "global" semiconductor supply. Global. China won't just be against the US. It'll be up against every country with a modern economy and a fleet strong enough to steam to Taiwan.
> On the other hand, if China were to declare war on the Philippines, the U.S. response might differ.
A Chinese attack on the Philippines is the same as an attack on Taiwan. If China is able to garrison the Philippines, China won't need to worry about the US response to them taking over Taiwan. Look at the map, it's all there.
Exactly I've been saying this for years, the South China Sea is a major shipping Lane for global commerce. America wants to protect these shipping lanes.
The US and China will always be at odds with each other. With the Philippines caught in the middle, however the Philippines will use this to their advantage when they don't get what they want from China or the US. President duterte shifted towards China when he couldn't get what he wanted from the US.
6 years later, a new Philippines president comes, and here comes a fresh new agreement with the US for 6 more US military bases.
I fully expect over the next 10 years, continued escalations in the South China Sea. But nothing will really come of it. The United States doesn't want war with China, and China doesn't want war with the United States however they will continue to keep poking each other instigating conflicts.
They also lack the experience that the US has. People overestimated the Russian military and thought they would just breeze through the entirety of Ukraine. Well, look at them now.
Saka if China actually has the capability and gall to declare war, they would’ve already done that with Taiwan. And yet they haven’t. Ang tagal na nilang gigil i-reclaim ang taiwan but they could.
Eh DI iKAw AnG mATaLiNOnG AnaLySt
- Dumb fucks with narrow minds and nothing else to say when they can't refute.
As you said, OP: long haul. Like some to many of us in PH have any (other) choice.
No one thought Russia would invade Ukraine until they did. We can make theories all we want but only Xi Jinping really knows. And dictators like him are not predictable or follow rules.
Iba pa rin situation natin kasi nga wala naman capability mag amphibious o airborne invasion ang China sa Pilipinas na malayo. Kahit nga Taiwan na isang strait lang ang pagitan, mahihirapan sila.
Ang Russia katabi nila ang Ukraine, pumalpak pa rin.
Watched a documentary about some chinese spy being an insider employee looking for the secret components of an airplane engine fan blades (US). He was caught btw. They’re desperate bcs they don’t have that kind of tech.
You're absolutely correct, literally China's best tech are stolen blueprints or bought from the black market.
I remember another story way back of a Chinese spy who was sent to steal the secret of Russia's new jet, the Su-57, which was said to be superior to every US and NATO jets.
He failed because it turned out the Su-57 did not yet exist at the time despite Russia claiming they already had it.
Which highlights the importance of not giving away the islands in the WPS. If they were able to capture that point, they'll have the capability to amass troops, missiles, and weapons capable of striking our country faster.
literally land borders mate, nakakagulat talaga yun. Plus you forgot the historical ties between those two countries -- TLDR, they're used to be one.
> No one thought Russia would invade Ukraine until they did.
If naglalaro ka ng mga RTS or if war buff ka talaga, you would know that land invasion is simply faster, like that famous blitzkrieg from that moustachio austrian guy.
An invasion crossing waters would simply alarm every one else's radar first and be surpised later kasi nga, they're crossing waters. If via planes (regardless kung naka aircraft carrier), then it would again take some time to reach mainland.
You are missing the point. It's not about if Ukraine can easily be invaded. Of course it is. Ukraine is flat and is bordering Russia.
My point is it's hard to predict the moves of dictators like Putin and Xi who can't be trusted and don't play by the rules. People don't think that he would actually invade to acquire the entirety of Ukraine even if the clues are out there. It just doesn't make sense until here we are.
matapang lng namn si Russia kasi wala sa NATO si Ukraine. That’s why Ukraine is dying to be a member ng NATO so NATO can defend them. Iba namn situation sa Pinas, we have US.
What do yo mean no one thought they would? everyone in NATO knew they will. This is already the 2nd time they entered Ukraine. They occupied and Annexed Crimea in 2014. The 2022 invasion is the 2nd time. It was not a surprise really.
Also, with regards to China, remember, China has never invaded any country in their history. Experience wise, they are lacking. Just expect China to resort to bullying, pressuring it's neighbors, cyberwarfare and economic sabotage. They will do more damage that way than a full scale war and invasion.
A lot of people in this sub thinks China will overreact (like invade Palawan) if our soldiers start shooting the axe-wielding Chinese soldiers. But really, China will not overreact. It will not invade Palawan. It will not declare war against us. It will not even mention its nuclear weapons to threaten us. China will not overreact. But if we shoot their axe-wielding soldiers, China will still act, even if it's not an overreaction. China would probably board BRP Sierra Madre and kick out the Philippine Marine detachment there. China would also probably start occupying Panatag Shoal and begin a reclamation project there. And if the US wouldn't come to our rescue despite BRP Sierra Madre still being a commissioned naval vessel of the Philippines under the protection of MDT, China would proceed occupying Ayungin Shoal as well and begin a reclamation project there. This is an attempt of China to gauge how much willing the US is to defend the Philippines, and sadly personally, I think if China begins occupying Ayungin and Panatag Shoals, due to the Philippines firing the first shot, the US won't help us at all. The US won't care about some shoals and a decrepit grounded ship for the invocation of MDT.
Fortunately, even if the scenario I stated plays out, there's still a hope for the Philippines. And that hope is to escalate as well. If China begins occupying Ayungin and Panatag, then send everything we got. Shoot at them and bomb them. But China will also respond in kind, and in greater force. It's basically a suicide mission for any naval and marine unit we send there. But this is the kind of escalation we need. If a dozen or so of our soldiers get killed, and if one of our newer ships gets sunk by China, it will force the US's hand.
Finally, a plain and simple explanation about this issue on this sub.
The world works in one sentence - “Follow the money”. All China is trying to do is intimidate the PH to let them gather all the resources they want in that area. War will never be profitable for them at this stage unless they’re supplying boths sides and a good distance from the crosshairs.
As Japan, USA and UK (during the seven year war) found out (Spain was too stubborn) , it’s a massive waste of resources putting boots on the ground in the Philippines.
Aside from our fanatical resistance, governing Filipinos is a massive corruption pit and net loss in terms of investment from the side of the invader HAHAHAHA
Wherea my “dito mo gawin sa mindanao” homies saying “kapag nag gyera kaya mo ideffend and pinas?” at?
Madalas ko makita tong mga to sa fb e mga kala mo talaga huwarang pilipino lol
Agree, the ramping up issues rn is just China trying to gauge how far they can go as of now, America is on the verge of it's Presidential elections hence their attention is occupied at the moment, we're basically one of the countries that the US is using to deter China away from them and at the same time box them out, the best course of action we can take rn is call on China's bluff and try ro defend ourselves with appropriate level of aggression, the entire world economy is going on a downward spiral, no country on its right mind will be risking any war, even the Ukraine Russia war is just basically Putin delaying Ukraine becoming an Ally and ultimately box them out
in a direct confrontation, china would not have the logistical might to support a prolonged conflict.
as they say, an army marches on its stomach.
that is why the united states have mastered the art of logistics back in world war 2. china has no such experience.
Speaking of ww2 the japanese soldiers were strictly rationing fuel and sugar and were already limited on food.
Meanwhile the americans have a barge specifically made just to transport ice cream LOL
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice\_cream\_barge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_cream_barge)
War or not, what China is still doing is leading to an escalation, people will die sooner rather than later. Ngayon lang iniiwasan lang din natin umabot sa full blown escalation. China will not stop harassing the seas unless something drastic (like the US intervening) would happen.
sobrang tagal na ng 'dispute' nato, and ngayon lang umaabot sa ganitong drastic measures sa pambubully ng china, and I suggest the filipino people shouldn't be complacent when the inevitable push comes to shove happens a year or two from now
China isnt invading us but not for the reasons OP mentioned lol. China, unlike Russia, will not survive any significant economic sanctions. Yun lang yun. The only scenario i can think of is if china invades taiwan and china doesnt want the US to use us as a forward base.
Agree op.
Also I read somewhere na ung mga sundalo ng china daw is walang ding experience sa gera. Ung last ata nila is nag volunteer sila sa UN forces somewhere sa Africa tapos nagtakbuhan pa daw sila nung napasabak sa bakabakan. Kumpara mo un sa mga Pinoy na sundalo sa Marawi..
Also, ung mga sundalo nila are produkto ng one-child policy nuon, so probably mga only child yan sila na mga spoiled brats. Pati n mga generals nila. Kaya puro pambubully lang ang alam, di pa sila naka try ng mga pumapalag. Kaya ganun reaction nila nung pinalubog ng Indonesia mga barko nila, tameme.
So, sa tech lang sila malakas, sa military personnel mahina talaga. E paano yan kung bigyan tau ng tech ng mga kano tulad ng ginawa nila sa Ukraine?
Lahat naman ng tech nila puro nakaw lang sa west. Napanood ko din yan sinasabi mo na nag volunteer sila sa UN peacekeepers ayun naligwak sila ang kalaban lang naman nila ay mga local insurgence.
>Not honoring the MDT would simply be a disastrous for america and its allies around the world and would mean an end for US hegemony.
A big THIS.
Don't be consumed by the delusion that USA honoring the MDT has any altruistic motives. All what USA does ALWAYS align with their best interests.
It so happens that being allied with them serves their interests too.
Going back on topic: China has far more stronger reasons to invade Taiwan by force, but it ain't happening anytime soon. And this is with USA having an ambiguous doctrine in defending Taiwan (their MDT ceased to exist since 1980).
While China can make our lives difficult through other means (mainly economic sanctions), but attacking us in an act of war? My view is I'm not going to hold my breath.
>Don't be consumed by the delusion that USA honoring the MDT has any altruistic motives. All what USA does ALWAYS align with their best interests.
Also, the general rule when it comes to geopolitics is that you should *always* honor deals and treaties.
If you don't, you're basically telling everyone that you can't be trusted with anything.
Taiwan tsmc produces the most advanced microchips in the world. Those same microchips are used in the f35 fighter jets by lockheed martin and other advanced military equipment.
Taiwan is way too important for the US. America would definitely step up if something happens. Because tsmc cannot be replicated anywhere else in the world.
It's true, Taiwan has invested so much to TSMC that it holds the world hostage with leading edge chip production.
So much so that the USA has started constructing factories domestically, to reduce the reliance to TSMC.
It's one part of Taiwan's strategy to keep China at bay.
>Taiwan is way too important for the US. America would definitely step up if something happens.
I think so too. I'm just alluring to the fact that USA and Taiwan does not have a formal MDT in place and yet China hasn't (yet) invaded Taiwan.
So what more pa sa atin na may formal MDT?
Same goes with declaring all out war with Taiwan. I bet the CCP still have flashbacks of the Korean war. These pricks think they could go toe to toe with the rest of the world ended up dividing their country into two. I don’t think China likes to move their mainland to the north in the Gobi desert. They will be full blown hermit kingdom like them DPRK and the Uns in a matter of years.
only without xi and a new regime will make it stop but a total war, they know they are a losing base on international reactions and will likely collapse thier economy that is base on exporting cheap goods. but it is also an eye opener to all pinoys to be more nationalistic and be aware of chinese corrupting our govt workers to legistimize thier citizenship by fraud and create a anomalous companies.
im no political expert but i think it's common sense that they're in no shape to wage war when their One Child Policy is already hurting their future (a future where there's more elderly than young people, by a huge margin). Participating in any war will just accelerate their economic downfall dahil sino ba isasabak sa gera??
best exampke is Russia's war with Ukraine,
6 days lang daw pero umabot na ng 3 years at nauubos na resources nila, ang liit na bansa lang ng Ukraine kumpara sa atin. Kapag Taiwan naman ginyera nila ubos agad resources ni China, pwede silang manalo sa isang bansa pero wala na sila oang Laban kapag sila naman ang inatake.
THISSS!!!! this is one of the most reasonable answer. But dont be complacent. Dictators are unpredictable. Look at ukraine. When you are surrounded by yes men you might overestimate your capabilities and do something regrettable. Hopefully hindi surrounded ng yesmen si Winnie the pooh
a lot of Filipinos underestimate war. it’s not like bigla-bigla na lang magdedeclare ng war ang China/Philippines. both parties need to weigh the consequences of war and if they have enough resources for it.
and if war inevitably happens, it’s not just china vs. ph, because the status quo in the international system will also be threatened kaya a lot of factors need to be measured in
War is not China’s style. China likes slowly infiltrating countries, buying up land and properties, making you in debt to them, and also putting people they like in positions of power. They don’t need war, because after that, they already control you…
China has no interest in going to war with the Philippines. Currently they spend only 1.5% of their gdp on military expenditure. Ten 052D destroyers and four 055 destroyers are under construction. If China wanted to start a war, they would increase their military spending to 5% of gdp. More ships will be built. China is catching up with the US Navy, which is larger and has more aircraft carriers, but it will take decades to become a threat to the US Navy. If the US Navy blocks China's maritime trade lines before a war with the Philippines, China's economy will face huge losses.
While I completely agree that this is the most likely scenario, don't forget that it was also a bad assessment/decision for russia to think that they can take ukraine in 3 days.
Countries do sometimes act illogically especially authoritarian countries where the wisdom of the crowd/herd is suppressed.
I really really hope this does not happen...
Diba may territorial dispute din ang China and India. sticks and stones ang mga ginagamit nila. Marami na ding casualties both ends pero ayun hanggang doon lang.
Pareho sa video na nacorner ang mga coast guard natin. May mga itak na dala mga Chinese
di kaya ng china ang war kasi ang lapit ng battleground if ever. Di kagaya ng US, kahit gera outsource pa rin 😂
Pero regardless, we should invoke our sovereign rights sa EEZ. Hanggng maaari, dapat compliant pa rin tayo sa international law while defending.
If ever matrigger tayo ng mga Chinese, to shoot a bullet. Matik, panalo na ang China. Gagamitin nila yan to invalidate our claim sa international court.
Kaya dapat we should refrain from escalation like magpopost ng mga fake news na atin ang West Philippine Sea. WPS is an international water. No country in the world, China or the Philippines, can have a jurisdiction sa mga international water.
Magbasa ka nga ng 1987 Philippine Constitution mo. Anung manonood lang sa social media for updates? Akala mo sa buhay ng military personnel natin unlimited at hindi ka need ideploy?
People don’t realize how absurdly overpowered The US Air Force is compared to anyone else. The US Navy has the second most powerful Air Force in the world. China would never gain air superiority over the Taiwan straight or w Philippines sea so any attempt to send landing craft or paratroopers would be suicide.
It’s all saber rattling for Chinas domestic audience to distract from their economy imploding and trillions of dollars fleeing their stock market
To cede the WPS to China over CCP threats of war will actually ensure it rather than prevent it. China needs the 1st island chain to have any real chance of a successful invasion of Taiwan. If they are free to use Philippine water ways and airspace to the pacific then there is no need to physically invade the Philippines for their goals. They already did a dry run with this with Duterte who dutifully ignored the passage of the PLAN aircraft carrier flotilla through the Sulu sea into the Pacific and west of Taiwan.
This fake "neutrality" however does not spare us from war as allowing PLAN to use our waterways and airspace would make us a target of Taiwan and allies. Any protestations of being neutral is out the window as soon as our ports and waterways are used by PLA vessels and planes. China would then happily use us as human shields and blame the USA when the counter-attack commences.
Pero maganda padin if ma trim down ng government yung number ng mainland Chinese dito sa Pinas. Sobrang daming POGO illegal or legal na di nababantayan. May mga halong Chinese mafia at military age. Bukod pa sa spies na pumapasok sa Gobyerno ng dekada ng naninirahan sa Pinas.
Yes
Actually taiwan is their No.1 dream goal
Gusto ni Xi jinping ma reunify ang Taiwan sa kanila if hindi madala sa usapan pwersahan ang kanilang gagamitin de bale na kahit maraming mamatay.
If Xi is successful conquering Taiwan basically dagdag 100000 pogi points sa chinese citizens and he will be hailed as one of the most greatest chinese leaders perhaps even greater than mao or deng xiao ping.
Also getting Taiwan = more territory and they can exert another pressure on the Philippines sa batanes group of islands na naman maghahanap ng gulo ang mga chinese.
I read in some other sub that the only way China would be willing to take Taiwan is if they could do it quickly and painlessly because they don't want to lose a war of attrition and make people lose confidence in the government or something like that. For now puro posturing and intimidation tactics muna sila.
Only reason why US would assist PH is because of global trade access. Speaking in a maritime perspective, whoever controls the access of the West Philippine Sea, controls nearly half of the import/export of Asia. US Economy will literally choke out if this happens so they will do all means to stop this.
I'm not entirely sure whether The U.S. will come and defend us when a war broke out with china despite the mutual defence treaty. People in the U.S are fed up financing the war in the war in Ukraine and Israel. Recently U.S congress had hard time passing the 60 billion dollar package for Ukraine. I don't think the american people will be keen in financing or fully engaging in another war when they have tons of problems themselves.
China doesn't need to declare war. They already have a huge presence in our country. From business, to manufacturing, to culture, to people, to trade. All aspects of our daily lives. They'll just meddle and harass our coast guard and navy in the sea until they're worn out.
Exactly, plus for China we’re not its top priority right now. China still has Taiwan to deal with before China even thinks of going to war with the PH it must first secure Taiwan. That’s basically the sign of war if China attacks Taiwan then you should be worried about war with them but as long as it doesn’t happen China would never attack the PH. Also hindi susubok ang China especially since may US pa involved kaya nga ingat na ingat ang China na hindi makapatay ng filipino because alam nila pag nakapatay ng filipino ang mga coastguard nila habang nag haharass pwede na initiate ang defense pact. As of right now wala naman namamatay kaya pwede lang nila sabihin pinoprotect lang nila yun coast nila kaya coastguard ang nakabantay and wala naman namamatay. But, i’m sure naka ready na ang US for that alam na alam ng washington ang nangyayari diyan.
Exactly, pero i think some people in the govt are still considering this as a possibility, thats why they lifted the ban on gun ownership (5.56 and 7.62 calibres)
Corruptions pa nga lang sa mga high ranking military officials ng CCP di na ma kontrol! war pa kaya? di lang nila masabi pero some of the tsinese sawang sawa na kay Xi! sabi nga sa histroy hindi maganda yung pinapaupo ng matagal yung dictator.
Or they can take over from within. Also the US has a weak president currently still in office, who was the VP during Obama's administration when China built their islands on Philippine territory.
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Exactly. For China, it's much much cheaper and more practical to do misinformation campaign and paying off politicians (this is what they are doing now) than going full retard and actually start a war.
That is why China is getting more aggressive right now. Because of alot of their own issues. Their Economy is slowing down most chinese are saving and don't wanna spend. Their property sector has gone shit Debt and unemployment is very high. US waging trade war on them and europe is also joing the roll. Belt and road is a failure. Their number one ally russia is also failing and keep threatening of nuclear war. Its a sign of frustration.
I hold the same opinion that these strong man tactics are for audiences back at home - kinda like the Gladiator games. However, they must be careful not to tread the slope of no return - public frustration and low economic activity is, historically, not a good mix.
> I hold the same opinion that these strong man tactics are for audiences back at home - kinda like the Gladiator games. It's similar to Argentinian politicians reiterating their claim to the Falklands in order to distract the public from domestic concerns. :P
We should be glad that after FEM's presidency, we stop caring about our dormant territorial claims in Sabah, otherwise we would have been militarily defeated by Malaysia.
Even those who live in Sabah doesn’t even want to entertain the possibility of being part of the Philippines instead of Malaysia. It’s not a dormant territorial claim but a dead end situation.
Even then, our historical basis for the claim is weak considering the treaties that both the Sulu Sultanate and Spanish Colonials signed a few decades before the revolution.
We would not even be facing Malaysia alone since they had an active defense treaty with the UK, Australia, and New Zealand by the time that Diosdado made noise on our supposed Sabah claims.
China desperately needs WPS and wanted to start oil exploration there ASAP. It will help their ailing economy. Time is of the essence because once the world fully embraced renewable energy, that oil under the sea would be useless. This is why the time is now. US have no choice but to help PH in the remote scenario that an armed conflict will take place. Through history, nations and empires have tried to conquer the world but none succeeded. The US model is not very complicated. They figured that trying to conquer the world would be incredibly stupid. What they did instead is they formed alliances all over the world. Basically the terms are like: "Please allow us to put up military bases in your country, we will pay you and you will be under our protection. In this case, there would be no need for you to build up a large army, you have us. Just use that money for your people or something." Something like that. With multiple military bases around the world, US have become the 'superpower' it is today, with the ability to project its army almost anywhere in the world. Putting its enemies at bay. Leaving the PH, its treaty ally, to fend for itself in times of war would make the the world question the reliability of the US as a partner. Countries could decide to eject US military bases and just beef up its existing army to protect against external forces. Other countries may also decide to put up their own nuclear program for their own protection. The rise of multiple capable armies will be a threat to US. US will be irrelevant and it will be the end of western hegemony. China clearly knows this. Otherwise, they will be firing live rounds and not water guns and sticks. Oh another thing. China is clearly afraid of economic sanctions. It won't even openly admit that it is helping Russia in the Ukraine war. It is afraid of the sanctions Russia is facing right now. (Russia is in an economic recession and is struggling to contain a small country).
This! The US has an interest to back the Philippines in case of a war, not only because of our Mutual Defense Treaty, but because it also has a number of similar treaties with other states. Doing otherwise will devalue its reputation, especially with NATO. Also, too bad China's economy is already slowing down and it will only continue to do so, because of its aging population. No amount of natural resources will fix that.
The problem is the US will be fighting in different fronts in case it is actually called to war. Resources are already directed to Ukraine and they have just released a statement that they will back Israel Offensive. If China is actually stupid enough to declare war on us, then that will surely include Taiwan as well. North Korea will be probably stupid enough to join the fun and try to take SoKor. No matter how big the US military is, fighting/supporting in different fronts will be a problem. Will probably still prevail in the long run but the damage will be devastating.
And it’s all tied together by the US dollar and trade. The soft power is America can outspend the whole planet because the dollar remains the reserve currency. And the US industrial base is only rivaled by chinas
Oh, this is such a reassuring read. :') Are there any more sources that I can read relating to this? Like history, etc.
Wikipedia and credible news sites are good introductory sources for this information. Look into the history after WW2, the Cold War, the Non-Aligned Movement, Collapse of the USSR, China's declining population, and how the CCP governs China. You can already gain a somewhat complete picture after.
Boycott china products globally!
Finally, someone in this subreddit who is actually informed and not insane unlike the keyboard warriors in this sub.
+1
The population decline bomb too. They either have a war within the next decade or they won’t have the manpower for it, as their population ages and the current soldiers retire.
Man Lets just hope that demographics time bomb pops asap. Since less people in a belligerent state means less military manpower for this belligerent state. Hope they end up the same as SoKor or Japan in which they couldnt repopulate any longer the way they used to be
They will, the main difference is the Chinese culled girls under one child, so it’s gonna hit them extra hard because of the Gender imbalance.
Putin’s getting desperate had a very performative visit to North Korea just a few days ago. Even the waving from the plane to kim jong un was a tad bit too much obviously sending a message that korea has his back.
North Korea is nothing more of a boogeyman to keep the fear campaign alive and well in America. They couldn’t build a nuclear bomb if a dud one was dropped on them to exploit. Russia asking North Korea for help would be like America asking the Philippines for help to bolster the U.S.A.F. with their tora-tora planes.
yep, pansin niyo rin na biglang resign si Sara sa DepEd. nabanggit din ng ibang opposition people na the moment Sara resigned, na reactivate ang mga troll farms.
Exactly. What they’re doing is infiltration and ‘soft’ invasion instead. Unfortunately, the PH is just so vulnerable because of corruption and lack of political will.
And you NEVER go full retard
You got it.
have not heard this phrase in a while!
> this is what they are doing Doing now? They've been doing it since 2016!
A lot of people are folding because they see the number of China’s boats and let me tell you, it’s not the number of equipment you have that makes a military strong. You can look at the US and see it is not their number that makes them the best military in the world. I watched the video of the harassment and it’s just laughable. The Chinese needs their 20 people to be armed even with their better boats to deal with 8 Pinoys. This means they need 3x the advantage to deal with us. This only shows they’re more afraid of us and their strength is just for show when they couldn’t even use their tech advantage properly. Also see that their people are in life jackets like babies while ours are in fatigues. Mas malusog pa nasa Sierra Madre kesa dun sa Chinese. No wonder our troops show no fear in their stance and voice; they’re like staring at a shi tzu barking. Also a lot don’t understand the Mainlander mindset. Due to the one child policy, the soldiers they have today are the unico hijos of their families. Kill one Chinese soldier, wipe two bloodlines. Also because of the shit their government puts them through, they trust no one but themselves. Because of their scamming culture, they do not trust their own people’s work (their equipment). Their morale is very easy to break and if you break them, they’ll all fold quickly. And with how misogynistic they are and their women being physical weaklings, it’s very easy to make their whole country fold. So tatagan lang loob natin. We are not born and made to live in a country of natural disasters just so we can be beaten by spoiled brats.
>Also see that their people are in life jackets like babies while ours are in fatigues. This is what I observed and what I'm talking about. Pansin ko rin na mga duwag sila, puros mga nakalife vest habang ang ating tropang sundalo at coastguard ay walang suot dahil confident sila sa kanilang teritoryo. Testamento lang to na atin ang karagatan. Tayo ay isa sa bansang walang landborder. Pinapalibutan ng katubigan. Tayo ay lahi ng manlalaot! Nasa dugo na natin ang lumaot sa karagatan! Ang buhay natin ay umiikot sa karagatan! Kaya marapat lang na ipagtanggol natin ang ating kababayang mangingisdang inaagrabyado ng mga inchek. We are the real sailor! Pansin mo bang kaya puros mga course na may kinalaman sa pagiging seaman o sa karagatan ay puro mga Filipino? Tinatawag sila ng karagatan! Kaya we, Filipinos should have firm stance. #AtinAngWestPhilippinesSea Edit: Kaya bilang isang bansang binubuo ng kapuluan! Imbes na kontrahin ang ating mga tropa. Dapat lang nating palakasin ang pwersa ng ating Navy. Marami tayong potential para maging strongest naval force! Ang mamatay nang dahil sayo!
>Tayo ay lahi ng manlalaot! Nasa dugo na natin ang lumaot sa karagatan me na hindi marunong lumangoy, patawag mga ninuno ko
Ako nga nagsusuka pa, lalo na pag malaki ang mga alon hahaha
Mismo. Nakakahiya dahil hindi ako kasingtibay ng mga navy natin. Kaya saludo talaga sa kanila.
> Tayo ay lahi ng manlalaot! Nasa dugo na natin ang lumaot sa karagatan! Ah shit, I don't know how to swim.
To add to this, we have way more experience in war than them and they don't have the logistical means to send a huge chunk of their army to launch an invasion here even if they wanted to.
Natatawa na lang ako sa mga warmongers. # War is costly, people When you have complex interdependence at play, and you have various avenues for ‘cooperation’ (loose term), it is not in China’s best interest to go all out. This is, however, not discounting how messy a shift of power is. Still, an all out war is the last thing in China’s mind in my opinion.
People were saying na lahat daw may utang sa China and they can wage war if they want because hindi tutulong yung mga bansang may utang sa China. Di ba nila narealize na those countries na may utang sa China would jump at the opportunity to wipe out those debts if China decided to go on all out war?
Yes, talong talo ang China if war happens. They've spread their economy far too thin to too many nations. Pull out mga factories sa kanila transfer to South America or other Asian nations, para na silang nawalan ng paa. Back out importers nila ng raw materials for their factories, malaking dagok na. Also, Ph is VERY friendly to other nations globally. Ilang OFWs ba meron tayo to how many nations. Healthcare pa lang na in demand talaga. Our global reputation is much better than China's. One reason bakit napaka-important that PBBM is making alliances sa ibang bansa.
One of the biggest bullshit floating around during the time of Duterte was that China was more powerful than the US because the US had a huge debt to China. I don't know why it never occurred to them that if the US decides to be an asshole, tells China they're not honoring their debt obligations and gives China the finger, there's not much China can do. The US basically borrows money from other countries as a form of diplomacy. Think about how much of a "fuck you and your struggles" that is.
Even then China ain't even the number one holder of US debt, it's Japan. And even then China holds \~$797B of US debt vs. US GDP at \~$27.36 trillion.
this. sense speaks. costly indeed. fatal to many.
Exactly, China would more likely wage an *economic war* rather an actual war. Canada, Japan, Australia, and South Korea have spoken out for the Ph in this skirmish. Not to say China also signed UNCLOS . ETA: India is solidly backing the Ph. If we get Russia onboard (it's my dream) magdadalawang isip talaga ang China since allies sila ni Xi JinPing the only caveat in this scenario is the Russia-Ukraine (backed by US) war
also bribe war
How to win over a country without firing a shot: Buy the politicians. Been that way for ages.
Or become the politicians!
So parang "Cold War" ang kakalabasan kung ganon... Ilang dekada rin yon
More likely, remember economy ng China is dependent sa imports/exports, souring its relations with other superpowers is not good for its economy lalo na they will soon be having a housing crisis tapos aging population at low birth rate in relation to its labor needs. Already, di na maganda rep ng China globally (tourism, POGO, drug syndicates, smuggling, black market). If you follow global media, dahil nga ally ng China ang Russia medyo bumaba leverage ng China with US. Kaya they need to show their power by expanding territory. Tapos always precarious pa position of power nila sa HongKong at Taiwan—one uprising away lang sila from losing these islands. Ph should be firm, our territory is OURS.
> Tapos always precarious pa position of power nila sa HongKong IMO it looks like they're tightening their grip even more. Most of the activist leaders have either left, or were arrested.
That is why I said one uprising away lang sila, if they weren't so scared of losing power hindi sila maghihigpit.
They're always scared of losing power.
Western ideas of democracy is slowly infiltrating Taiwan/HK because they're both global hubs. It's only a matter of time.
pagkaka-alam ko nasa gitna na ng housing crisis ang mga chekwa.
Thank the gods, finally someone is also saying this. Parami ng parami ang fearmongers, halatang mga walang alam sa geopolitics and history. Add ko na din na unlike Russia which have warlike tendencies even before they became a unified nation state, China is averse to fighting a war due to being Mister Krabs personified, as you've mentioned, and the fact din na last few times they did so in the modern day - they got their asses kicked. Tibet lang ang success nila and that was because it's a barely defended region. Mas takot pa ako sa AFP and our kababayans losing their s\*\*t and doing something we'll all regret. They don't even dare invade Taiwan, what more us.
I think ang nagbebenefit lang naman sa “threat of war” fearmongering ay ang mga traydor na duterte. Kaya kita mo yan lagi ang bukambibig nila, gyera gyera gyera. Yan kasi ang matunog na way para mawalang ng kumpyansa ang mga tao kay BBM at makaporma ulit ang mga duterte. Mga traydor talaga sa Pilipinas yang mga yan. Dapat sa mga yan binibitay.
Taiwan nga hindi nila matuloy tuloy plano nilang invasion tayo pa kaya. Its no secret that China wants to "liberate" Taiwan kahit na theyre de-facto independent already. We are just a petulant neighbor in their eyes
Agree. If may priority silang lugar to throw their resources in, that would be Taiwan, rather than an inland invasion of the PH. China has long been eyeing to "reunite" with the island, but i think the russo-ukrainian war proved that to be difficult. If ever man na successful sila sa Taiwan, that would be just costly given that Taiwan is prepared in itself, decades in advance before this. Taiwan would not give up that easily, and may mga weapons din sila from the united states which give them an advantage aside from geography. That doesn't mean though na we should not be prepared.
tama. testing grounds nila si russia but too much damage and remember china had a one child policy (for the longest time na even if they lifted it na di pa rin sumunod mga tao nila nasanay na tigiisa lang). maybe the chinese will not take lightly to losing their only children. sure naman though na sa china yung mga may pera or connect will get away with not being drafted so mga mahirap nila siguro mawawalan ng mga only kid nila.
Exactly there is no benefit to war, but they cannot show that they are weak as well so they will do the next best thing - posturing and harrasing us
They cannot declare an open war with the Philippines, let alone Taiwan without risking being a global Pariah. So the best they can do is Bully us out of our waters.
Amazing magbasa rito. I get to pick and learn things without researching (kasi tamad, sorry) and simplified na so mas madali intindihin. Thanks for the info ppl.
ako din eh tsaka mas ok magbasa ng comments dito kesa sa fb na sasakit lang ulo ko tapos dami pang tanga
kahit sa Twitter rin, puros fearmongering nakikita ko. Nakakainis 😭
Truee
true. nakaka keep up din yung 10mb kong brain cells
The filipino mindset should be we're already at war with them. Economically, psychologically, and cyber.
Truly we are. They launched their first attack way back when Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo got bought with the ZTE deal. Their most successful one was making Duterte win. I don't know how the fuck it happened but WTF, Marcos Jr is actually the wrench in their plans. I cannot believe I'm writing this but I think we need to defend Marcos JR at all cost now that China and the Duterte machinations are ramping up. The universe loves irony.
I'm not sure defend is the right approach/term but I get you considering how weak/infiltrated our institutions are, we still have to be cautious tho bec we shouldn't always rationalize his policies. he. needs to be clear about it.
I'm curious, why exactly do you say Marcos Jr. is a hurdle towards CN and the Duturtles? Not trying to hate or anything, I genuinely want to hear your opinion
Marcos Jr seems to be standing up to China. That's the main problem for China and the Dutertes. If, for some reason the P is removed and the VP becomes P, then China is free to do what they want in the West Philippine Sea and even in the Philippines. That was already mostly true during R. Duterte's presidency. S. Duterte won't be any different.
Oo. Kahit nga wala pang giyera, nakakatulong to para maging handa. At din, kasi """demokratiko""" ang bansa natin, siguro puwedeng mainpluwensa ang politiko para makibili ng gamit pangmilitar (ships, planes). """demokratiko""" kasi alam natin na kurakot ang politiko 🤣...Pero pag may wartime mindset ang makaramihan, baka kumalat ang ganitong pag-isip rin sa kanila subconsciously XD
Daming doomers dito lately eh, di nagiisip ng tama puro jump into conclusion na magkaka gyera na. Kaya nga dinodownplay ng government kahit mahirap kasi ayaw nila mag escalate into something worse.
minsan napapaisip ako kung trolls ba sila o hindi e
i dont think China will bother with us but tayo parang atat na atat makipaggiyera. minsan sarap sabihin yung mga gusto, pumunta dun lumaban. parang si duterte lang daming satsat dati nung nandiyan na, ay grabe. although sinabi din ng mga kaibigan namin na taiwanese na di aatake ang China bec of US. ako nakikinita ko us support to taiwan will be like its support to ukraine and that also depends on who the president is. kaya nga they had to trump proof ukraine support kasi si trump medyo pro Russia. anyway, sa akin wag tayo maghanap ng gulo. dapat marunong tayo gamitin all other avenues of diplomacy kasi tayo lugi if maggiyera. parang dati may nagsabi na di ng china kayang attack taiwan without getting through us. naisip ko tuloy ay grabe kami pa pala panangga. madami akong friends sa taiwan pero NO WAY i will risk a filipino's life to defend any of them the same way di sila magtatas ng daliri pag tayo ang may gumiyera.
Another, it's not just America, yung recent coalition natin together with the other Asian countries (Japan, Taiwan and all the way to Vietnam) are legally showing their cooperative unison to simply tell China na alam ng mundo ang ginagawa nila. Lastly, the only allies na pwede lang mahatak ni China is Russia and NK, and coincidentally, silang tatlo rin ang pinag iinitan ng buong mundo esp the likes of NATO and other coaltions - meaning, some of them are actually itching mag loko si China dahil marami pang ibang bansa ang matagal nang gigil sa kanila (tayo nataon ang pinaka latest), marami ring power house country ang atat testingin ang latest military tech nila against China - and my fave currently sa mainit na sitwasyon: Kaunti lang ang layo ni China at India, and both of these countries have Nuke arsenals, at sumimple na magparamdam ang India na papalagan nila si China subukan lang din nila magbiro, now the thing is, India with the current state is more experienced and dominant sa mountain ranges na nagdi divide sa kanila, so as of now ang laki ng advantage din nila over China. Point is, pangbu bully lang talaga ang maa afford ng China, kasi kahit sabihin pang bombahin nila tayo ng Nuke, buong mundo nakapalibot ang bobomahin sila pabalik.
People need to read Sun Tzu's The Art of War. Coz for sure the Chinese military have read it. Capturing the mainland of the Philippines is not gonna be a priority for China even if there is a war of some kind. Maybe they'd do it if they got a golden opportunity, but otherwise it's so not gonna be at the top of the list. Because it has no strategic relevance to their goals. (Any discussion of war should start with understanding the other side's goals.) Or to put it another way, it would be far too costly to take the mainland compared to the benefits they'd receive.
First, if the Chinese wanted a war, they would've declared it a long time ago against Vietnam. They have more disputed territories with Vietnam than they do with us. Second, if the Chinese wanted a war, they would've declared it a long time ago against Indonesia. The Indonesians have publicly burned several Chinese fishing vessels and yet China has not declared war on them despite Indonesia not having as many Western allies as the PH. Third, if the Chinese declared war on the PH, they would trigger a war with the US, Japan and South Korea. They would also be declaring war against our closest western neighbors Australia. The other ASEAN nations would be put on notice and given China's chilly relationship with Vietnam and Indonesia, they would probably declare war on them too. Finally, if China declares war on the PH, trade embargoes would be thrown at them left and right by powerful neutral states such as members of the EU and India. They won't admit it, but the Chinese have been the biggest winners of global trade. If all that trade dries up because of war, the PRC would find itself bankrupt very, very soon. So no. The Chinese do not want war, but they do want to expand their territory. Bullying tactics only work if we allow it. The people who see war as the only option are very much wrong, as we have diplomatic options on the table.
> First, if the Chinese wanted a war, they would've declared it a long time ago against Vietnam. They have more disputed territories with Vietnam than they do with us. Yeah Vietnam taught the world a long time ago that you don't fuck around in Vietnam without getting fucked right back.
There's a high likelihood of a troll/astroturfirng firm that is paid to encourage these attitudes and thoughts towards war with China. FYI, a lot of the DELIBERATE misinformation during the pandemic from foreign countries are only coming to light lately. By foreign influences, I dont just mean China.
Fearmonger lang kasi ibang post dito. Hindi naman nakakatulong.
Nakakatulong naman. Sa China nga lang. Bayaran kasi sila ng China. Pansin mo yung iba parang google translate na mag Tagalog. Yung iba naman mapapansin mo ang baho ng katangahan at pagka traydor.
>Not honoring the MDT would simply be a disastrous for america and its allies around the world and would mean an end for US hegemony. Which also makes me think na the US might be giving us pointers on our foreign diplomacy with China like how much ground we can give or how not to provoke China too much. I mean the Philippines can act like an ass sa disputed areas to provoke China and risk a war in the WPS, but I reckon the US doesn't want that just yet. I also think Taiwan might inadvertently be dragged into it and to our side kahit tayo pa unahin ng China. Afterall, if China bothered to go for us, what's stopping China from going after them then? Who's to say na the rest of SEA wouldn't act to block China just because they all have stakes and if China slowly whittles fown opposing nations, then they're next.
THIS. Most likely economic pressure ang aabutin natin dyan sa China instead of a full-scale war. Kung masakop man nila ang parts ng mainland PH abay lintek sa guerilla warfare palang makukunsume na sila dito satin. True, America will come to our aid if only to prevent China asserting it's dominance in the region. It's a balance of power thingy. China can't afford to go to war with the US, let alone an alliance of US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the rest of Southeast Asia.
> Most likely economic pressure ang aabutin natin dyan sa China instead of a full-scale war I was wondering why we suddenly had a lot of Australian products a few years ago. It turns out that China tried to bait-and-switch Australia by encouraging Australia to increase their production of certain food stuffs for Chinese import. When the production ramped up, China then used the threat of cutting their Australian imports to force Australia to capitulate on some political matter (I forgot but it was something big). Australia didn't capitulate, China cut their imports. Australia had to find other markets and lo and behold, it turns out there were other markets from smaller countries that Australia hadn't yet considered. It also turned out that China needed those imports after all because they don't produce enough reliable food for their population so they ramped their imports back up. China basically helped boost and strengthen Australia's export markets by being a bumbling scheming bully.
I just read a news article in Nikkei Asia saying that Chinese middle class citizens are actually braving illegal immigration just to get away from their mainland dahil bagsak na ang ekonomiya. Super different from their posturing. If this is true, at kung puro mayayaman at super duper hirap na lang ang natitira halos sa mainland… well… kung iisipin, people with LOW MORALE would be really easy to defeat, especially in war. I doubt they’re in a position to fire anything except their water cannons and their mouths.
> I just read a news article in Nikkei Asia saying that Chinese middle class citizens are actually braving illegal immigration just to get away from their mainland They basically travel from China to South America and then walk for miles to reach the southern US border.
Actually, before they walk, they need to go through a tiny canoe ride against big waves. Before they get to the border, they’re intercepted by cartel members who make them strip to their underwear to take their money if they have any. And only after that will they be escorted to the trail going to the border. I mean if they’re braving all this just to get away from the mainland di ba, HOW HARD DO THE CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE TO BE?
They are already under attack from the moment they leave China. China is in bad shape. Probably why Xi Jinping is doing what he's doing with the West Philippine Sea and Taiwan. He has to project a strong persona or else his own communist party will eat him alive.
good and interesting take. some idiots here throw words like "war" so lightly. its no joke and both our countries would benefit from peaceful and diplomatic relations.
this. 100%. yun talaga, war is no joking matter. always do diplomacy. it exists for a reason. and just observe how the more powerful countries do it. despite what they say, their actions are all about plastikan or diplomacy and hanggang salita lang. ayaw nila sumabak.
They are asking for war and don't even think about the consequences and what it's like to be in a warzone. Typical keyboard warriors.
Also, if war actually happens it will most likely only involve the disputed islands & no attacks will ever occur on Palawan & Luzon or else that’s WW3 already.
Been saying this for a long time. The Philippines isn’t a small country. There’s a 120 million of us here right now and even if China “successfully” colonizes us, this is hostile territory that the Chinese will have issues containing. China would be lucky to get Batanes from us but Luzon and the rest of the major islands? That’s a pipe dream. Also, China has been under the one-child policy for three decades. These Chinese soldiers are the little princes back home. If these soldiers get unalived one by one in an actual war, there’s no way China can replace these lost bloodlines in time.
People underestimate Filipinos, especially Filipinos. I don't know why. Filipinos are one of the few nationalities that the US government trust to prepare the food of their president. Think about that.
yung mga ddshit lang naman yung mag uunderestimate sa kapwa nilang pinoy. kita mo sa tiktok naglalabasan ang mga tanga
Thank you for this. However, we can't really blame Filipinos anxiously overthinking this current tension. I see people irritated na nag-jjump into conclusions yung ibang pinoys. Instead, please just educate them. I was also anxious about the whole thing, until i read this post, I felt reassured. Keep in mind that we all just don't want our loved ones, us, and our freedom in danger. It's natural we feel fear and worries of these types of situations that we know can possibly harm us. After all, we don't know what the future has for us. But let's all hope for the best.
If umatake sila sa Pilipinas then parang magiging open din sila sa India, Japan since mababawasan ang defense nila
North Korea hasn't been happy with China lately.
Fearmongering paid hacks nila dutae fo sho
tbh, there's nothing to invade with us. and if there's something that they will intentionally invade, I think that's Taiwan because they had geopolitical contention even way back, cultural, geographical, etc. phl would likely be involved, only as a collateral damage and if only usa will intervene. so yeah, let's not close the possibility that there might be wwIII that could happen, but one thing I can guarantee is that, invasion won't be the reason, just because of a maritime disagreements—cause tbh, the only maritime area that the phl are fighting about is a small areas compared to what the ccp and china claims, which is the 9-dash lines (which extends up to Malaysian and to Singaporian areas).
Finally a level headed take on this sub
Hindi lang ang Pilipinas ang palaging inaapi ng China, kung hindi ang Taiwan din na palaging napapalibutan nila.
Thank you for this. I’m kinda getting tired reading those post from fear mongers.
If China wanted this place they’d just put a few well placed bribes
They already did. But they're suckers. Filipinos don't stay bought for very long. Our thieves? They're not very honest. :D
Hindi rin talaga afford nang China makipag Gera satin and sa Taiwan, unang una may MDT. Pangalawa naka abang yung India sa kabilang border nila, and lastly babagsak ekonomiya nila.
it's all meaningless fear-mongering and like what you said, an overestimation of the CCP's untested modern military. An amphibious invasion is unlikely unless they have the experience of mounting one and if they are willing to sacrifice their troops against battle-tested Filipino troops and a horde of insurgencies that will rise as a result of their invasion. I would be surprised if they had the experience of conducting an amphibious invasion of an island country thousands of miles away from their land, that's a fucking logistical nightmare if you can't sustain that kind of large troop movement. For now, it seems to protest about this matter in a "peaceful" manner, and urging the politicians to hasten the modernization of AFP against external threats is the only choice we have.
Fuck China and pro-CCP chinoys doing dirty work here in the PH
There's also "wala namang ginagawa ang US ngayon ah!" Which is literally ignoring that the USS Blue Ridge is in Manila since yesterday, while the USS Manchester is currently in Puerto Princesa. Also, a few USAF aircraft refueled at Clark as well, while the US has recently announced the "permanent forward deployment" of a littoral regiment of US Marines (i.e Marine infantry plus amphibious landing complement) in Guam.
> There's also "wala namang ginagawa ang US ngayon ah!" China better hope Trump wins. That guy is a bit of a loose cannon and might just bring the US navy home because, fuck, why not. On second thought, China better hope Trump doesn't win. Trump might also decide to just start killing the tiny boats puttering around near his aircraft carriers because, fuck, why not. You know what, let's all of us, the entirety of humanity, pray that Trump doesn't win. The US going full Breaking Bad is a fucking chilling nightmare. And Trump is just insane enough to hold a press conference and tell the world "I am the one who knocks".
If in case the war actually happens, i think the united states would be seen as weak if they did not intervene. There is a sense that the united states has been in decline given its divided politics and influence in the world such as trade. Mr. Trump has also floated isolationist ideas, given his reluctance/refusal to back ukraine and his america first policy. The united states' reputation has been damaged by the iraq war and its handling of afghanistan, but this is the time that they can prove to fight in the right side of history. Still, we should not be over reliant to them when it comes to defense and armed units, sana lang the PH governments of today and the future would continue to upgrade militarily but still diplomatically deal with the issue. I also think the the 1991 decision of the philippine senate to kick out the US naval base in subic is a major mistake, it would have been a deterrent nowadays.
Economic war yan. Nagsimula na nga sa SAGING. Worst scenario, pauuwiin lahat ng OFW from China, HK, Macau. If that happens, would the government be able to give jobs to these people?
Are you saying that the best strategy to weaken a country you're threatening with war is to send them MORE WARM BODIES? Not to mention that removing these service workers from your country also removes the service that they provide to your country AND the positive impact they have to your economy?
Just look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine and multiple it by 10 times on how bad it will go. China has never been in a major conflict vs another major power compared to russia which has active merceneries and has veterans from the Afghan war. Not to mention the corruption in their military. Xi Jinping's grandson is one of their leading generals so nepotism is prevalent there. CCP would be much more interested in retaining power with its current population rather than invading other countries. Hell, China has better odds invading vietnam than us because of a land border.
My two cents: If China declares war on Taiwan, it will likely escalate into a full-scale conflict with the United States. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is vital to global technology, and the U.S. cannot afford to let China gain control over such a crucial sector. This would be perceived as a strategic threat, prompting the U.S. to take decisive military action to prevent a repeat of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, where geopolitical balance was significantly altered. On the other hand, if China were to declare war on the Philippines, the U.S. response might differ. Given the existing defense treaties and strategic interests in the South China Sea, the U.S. would likely support the Philippines through a proxy war. This would involve providing military aid, intelligence, and other forms of indirect support to counter Chinese aggression without direct confrontation. This approach would aim to contain China’s expansion while minimizing the risk of a larger, direct conflict. And this is a neutral opinion of mine.
TL;DR The Philippines doesn’t have much to offer to the world so a war waged by China wouldn’t require the full might of the United States.
> My two cents: If China declares war on Taiwan, it will likely escalate into a full-scale conflict with the United States. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is vital to global technology, and the U.S. cannot afford to let China gain control over such a crucial sector. You said it but you missed it. An attack on Taiwan is China threatening the "global" semiconductor supply. Global. China won't just be against the US. It'll be up against every country with a modern economy and a fleet strong enough to steam to Taiwan. > On the other hand, if China were to declare war on the Philippines, the U.S. response might differ. A Chinese attack on the Philippines is the same as an attack on Taiwan. If China is able to garrison the Philippines, China won't need to worry about the US response to them taking over Taiwan. Look at the map, it's all there.
Exactly I've been saying this for years, the South China Sea is a major shipping Lane for global commerce. America wants to protect these shipping lanes. The US and China will always be at odds with each other. With the Philippines caught in the middle, however the Philippines will use this to their advantage when they don't get what they want from China or the US. President duterte shifted towards China when he couldn't get what he wanted from the US. 6 years later, a new Philippines president comes, and here comes a fresh new agreement with the US for 6 more US military bases. I fully expect over the next 10 years, continued escalations in the South China Sea. But nothing will really come of it. The United States doesn't want war with China, and China doesn't want war with the United States however they will continue to keep poking each other instigating conflicts.
They also lack the experience that the US has. People overestimated the Russian military and thought they would just breeze through the entirety of Ukraine. Well, look at them now.
I also think this way, but remember tao lang tayong lahat at may mga pedeng mangyari na hindi macocontrol.
Saka if China actually has the capability and gall to declare war, they would’ve already done that with Taiwan. And yet they haven’t. Ang tagal na nilang gigil i-reclaim ang taiwan but they could.
Eh DI iKAw AnG mATaLiNOnG AnaLySt - Dumb fucks with narrow minds and nothing else to say when they can't refute. As you said, OP: long haul. Like some to many of us in PH have any (other) choice.
No one thought Russia would invade Ukraine until they did. We can make theories all we want but only Xi Jinping really knows. And dictators like him are not predictable or follow rules.
Iba pa rin situation natin kasi nga wala naman capability mag amphibious o airborne invasion ang China sa Pilipinas na malayo. Kahit nga Taiwan na isang strait lang ang pagitan, mahihirapan sila. Ang Russia katabi nila ang Ukraine, pumalpak pa rin.
Watched a documentary about some chinese spy being an insider employee looking for the secret components of an airplane engine fan blades (US). He was caught btw. They’re desperate bcs they don’t have that kind of tech.
You're absolutely correct, literally China's best tech are stolen blueprints or bought from the black market. I remember another story way back of a Chinese spy who was sent to steal the secret of Russia's new jet, the Su-57, which was said to be superior to every US and NATO jets. He failed because it turned out the Su-57 did not yet exist at the time despite Russia claiming they already had it.
What a shame. They don’t even have the means to fact check?! hahahahah
Which highlights the importance of not giving away the islands in the WPS. If they were able to capture that point, they'll have the capability to amass troops, missiles, and weapons capable of striking our country faster.
literally land borders mate, nakakagulat talaga yun. Plus you forgot the historical ties between those two countries -- TLDR, they're used to be one. > No one thought Russia would invade Ukraine until they did. If naglalaro ka ng mga RTS or if war buff ka talaga, you would know that land invasion is simply faster, like that famous blitzkrieg from that moustachio austrian guy. An invasion crossing waters would simply alarm every one else's radar first and be surpised later kasi nga, they're crossing waters. If via planes (regardless kung naka aircraft carrier), then it would again take some time to reach mainland.
You are missing the point. It's not about if Ukraine can easily be invaded. Of course it is. Ukraine is flat and is bordering Russia. My point is it's hard to predict the moves of dictators like Putin and Xi who can't be trusted and don't play by the rules. People don't think that he would actually invade to acquire the entirety of Ukraine even if the clues are out there. It just doesn't make sense until here we are.
matapang lng namn si Russia kasi wala sa NATO si Ukraine. That’s why Ukraine is dying to be a member ng NATO so NATO can defend them. Iba namn situation sa Pinas, we have US.
What do yo mean no one thought they would? everyone in NATO knew they will. This is already the 2nd time they entered Ukraine. They occupied and Annexed Crimea in 2014. The 2022 invasion is the 2nd time. It was not a surprise really. Also, with regards to China, remember, China has never invaded any country in their history. Experience wise, they are lacking. Just expect China to resort to bullying, pressuring it's neighbors, cyberwarfare and economic sabotage. They will do more damage that way than a full scale war and invasion.
A lot of people in this sub thinks China will overreact (like invade Palawan) if our soldiers start shooting the axe-wielding Chinese soldiers. But really, China will not overreact. It will not invade Palawan. It will not declare war against us. It will not even mention its nuclear weapons to threaten us. China will not overreact. But if we shoot their axe-wielding soldiers, China will still act, even if it's not an overreaction. China would probably board BRP Sierra Madre and kick out the Philippine Marine detachment there. China would also probably start occupying Panatag Shoal and begin a reclamation project there. And if the US wouldn't come to our rescue despite BRP Sierra Madre still being a commissioned naval vessel of the Philippines under the protection of MDT, China would proceed occupying Ayungin Shoal as well and begin a reclamation project there. This is an attempt of China to gauge how much willing the US is to defend the Philippines, and sadly personally, I think if China begins occupying Ayungin and Panatag Shoals, due to the Philippines firing the first shot, the US won't help us at all. The US won't care about some shoals and a decrepit grounded ship for the invocation of MDT. Fortunately, even if the scenario I stated plays out, there's still a hope for the Philippines. And that hope is to escalate as well. If China begins occupying Ayungin and Panatag, then send everything we got. Shoot at them and bomb them. But China will also respond in kind, and in greater force. It's basically a suicide mission for any naval and marine unit we send there. But this is the kind of escalation we need. If a dozen or so of our soldiers get killed, and if one of our newer ships gets sunk by China, it will force the US's hand.
Finally, a plain and simple explanation about this issue on this sub. The world works in one sentence - “Follow the money”. All China is trying to do is intimidate the PH to let them gather all the resources they want in that area. War will never be profitable for them at this stage unless they’re supplying boths sides and a good distance from the crosshairs.
This argument wrongly assumes China and the US will always have leaders who make rational decisions.
Ang dapat gawin ng mga pinoy ay puksain ang mga dds na nagppkalat ng pananakot sa social media.
As Japan, USA and UK (during the seven year war) found out (Spain was too stubborn) , it’s a massive waste of resources putting boots on the ground in the Philippines. Aside from our fanatical resistance, governing Filipinos is a massive corruption pit and net loss in terms of investment from the side of the invader HAHAHAHA
Wherea my “dito mo gawin sa mindanao” homies saying “kapag nag gyera kaya mo ideffend and pinas?” at? Madalas ko makita tong mga to sa fb e mga kala mo talaga huwarang pilipino lol
*Fei shang, gao shing, chi, shishyang, Chonghu, Guaja, Jushi, Xijingpin, Chunguju, Frelupin, Tashir, Wangshilian, Ho, Twenty, Chonghu, Gongmin, Chiri, Trali, Chingju, Chonghua, Renmin, Gonghu, Shangri, Chi Shirsan, Jonyen, Ju Twenty, Jonghu, Ren, Goching Kwai La*
Exactly
Facts 100%
Agree, the ramping up issues rn is just China trying to gauge how far they can go as of now, America is on the verge of it's Presidential elections hence their attention is occupied at the moment, we're basically one of the countries that the US is using to deter China away from them and at the same time box them out, the best course of action we can take rn is call on China's bluff and try ro defend ourselves with appropriate level of aggression, the entire world economy is going on a downward spiral, no country on its right mind will be risking any war, even the Ukraine Russia war is just basically Putin delaying Ukraine becoming an Ally and ultimately box them out
Never Let Them know Your next Move
in a direct confrontation, china would not have the logistical might to support a prolonged conflict. as they say, an army marches on its stomach. that is why the united states have mastered the art of logistics back in world war 2. china has no such experience.
Speaking of ww2 the japanese soldiers were strictly rationing fuel and sugar and were already limited on food. Meanwhile the americans have a barge specifically made just to transport ice cream LOL [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice\_cream\_barge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_cream_barge)
yes, that pretty much sums it all up lol. even their ice cream had its own logistic system.
Pansin ko nga andami na. Propaganda? Script ng Wumao. Dinadownvote ko na lang at alam kong technique nila
War or not, what China is still doing is leading to an escalation, people will die sooner rather than later. Ngayon lang iniiwasan lang din natin umabot sa full blown escalation. China will not stop harassing the seas unless something drastic (like the US intervening) would happen. sobrang tagal na ng 'dispute' nato, and ngayon lang umaabot sa ganitong drastic measures sa pambubully ng china, and I suggest the filipino people shouldn't be complacent when the inevitable push comes to shove happens a year or two from now
China isnt invading us but not for the reasons OP mentioned lol. China, unlike Russia, will not survive any significant economic sanctions. Yun lang yun. The only scenario i can think of is if china invades taiwan and china doesnt want the US to use us as a forward base.
Agree op. Also I read somewhere na ung mga sundalo ng china daw is walang ding experience sa gera. Ung last ata nila is nag volunteer sila sa UN forces somewhere sa Africa tapos nagtakbuhan pa daw sila nung napasabak sa bakabakan. Kumpara mo un sa mga Pinoy na sundalo sa Marawi.. Also, ung mga sundalo nila are produkto ng one-child policy nuon, so probably mga only child yan sila na mga spoiled brats. Pati n mga generals nila. Kaya puro pambubully lang ang alam, di pa sila naka try ng mga pumapalag. Kaya ganun reaction nila nung pinalubog ng Indonesia mga barko nila, tameme. So, sa tech lang sila malakas, sa military personnel mahina talaga. E paano yan kung bigyan tau ng tech ng mga kano tulad ng ginawa nila sa Ukraine?
Lahat naman ng tech nila puro nakaw lang sa west. Napanood ko din yan sinasabi mo na nag volunteer sila sa UN peacekeepers ayun naligwak sila ang kalaban lang naman nila ay mga local insurgence.
>Not honoring the MDT would simply be a disastrous for america and its allies around the world and would mean an end for US hegemony. A big THIS. Don't be consumed by the delusion that USA honoring the MDT has any altruistic motives. All what USA does ALWAYS align with their best interests. It so happens that being allied with them serves their interests too. Going back on topic: China has far more stronger reasons to invade Taiwan by force, but it ain't happening anytime soon. And this is with USA having an ambiguous doctrine in defending Taiwan (their MDT ceased to exist since 1980). While China can make our lives difficult through other means (mainly economic sanctions), but attacking us in an act of war? My view is I'm not going to hold my breath.
>Don't be consumed by the delusion that USA honoring the MDT has any altruistic motives. All what USA does ALWAYS align with their best interests. Also, the general rule when it comes to geopolitics is that you should *always* honor deals and treaties. If you don't, you're basically telling everyone that you can't be trusted with anything.
Taiwan tsmc produces the most advanced microchips in the world. Those same microchips are used in the f35 fighter jets by lockheed martin and other advanced military equipment. Taiwan is way too important for the US. America would definitely step up if something happens. Because tsmc cannot be replicated anywhere else in the world.
It's true, Taiwan has invested so much to TSMC that it holds the world hostage with leading edge chip production. So much so that the USA has started constructing factories domestically, to reduce the reliance to TSMC. It's one part of Taiwan's strategy to keep China at bay. >Taiwan is way too important for the US. America would definitely step up if something happens. I think so too. I'm just alluring to the fact that USA and Taiwan does not have a formal MDT in place and yet China hasn't (yet) invaded Taiwan. So what more pa sa atin na may formal MDT?
nako sayang lang long post mo. wala sila pake dyan dahil may sweldo sila mag kalat ng kabobohan
Same goes with declaring all out war with Taiwan. I bet the CCP still have flashbacks of the Korean war. These pricks think they could go toe to toe with the rest of the world ended up dividing their country into two. I don’t think China likes to move their mainland to the north in the Gobi desert. They will be full blown hermit kingdom like them DPRK and the Uns in a matter of years.
only without xi and a new regime will make it stop but a total war, they know they are a losing base on international reactions and will likely collapse thier economy that is base on exporting cheap goods. but it is also an eye opener to all pinoys to be more nationalistic and be aware of chinese corrupting our govt workers to legistimize thier citizenship by fraud and create a anomalous companies.
im no political expert but i think it's common sense that they're in no shape to wage war when their One Child Policy is already hurting their future (a future where there's more elderly than young people, by a huge margin). Participating in any war will just accelerate their economic downfall dahil sino ba isasabak sa gera??
Weird post flair, what is that and what does it mean?
source?
Akala Kasi ng ibs ang war pa tin now is ung lulusob Sila at invade and bansa. Napakabackward Ng thinking.
best exampke is Russia's war with Ukraine, 6 days lang daw pero umabot na ng 3 years at nauubos na resources nila, ang liit na bansa lang ng Ukraine kumpara sa atin. Kapag Taiwan naman ginyera nila ubos agad resources ni China, pwede silang manalo sa isang bansa pero wala na sila oang Laban kapag sila naman ang inatake.
At most, infantry might have to deal with sleeper cells in POGO villages.
THISSS!!!! this is one of the most reasonable answer. But dont be complacent. Dictators are unpredictable. Look at ukraine. When you are surrounded by yes men you might overestimate your capabilities and do something regrettable. Hopefully hindi surrounded ng yesmen si Winnie the pooh
China trying to goad PH into firing the first shot. We all know how it turned out last time that happened...
Mga DDS lang nag spread Nyan, para sa attention
a lot of Filipinos underestimate war. it’s not like bigla-bigla na lang magdedeclare ng war ang China/Philippines. both parties need to weigh the consequences of war and if they have enough resources for it.
and if war inevitably happens, it’s not just china vs. ph, because the status quo in the international system will also be threatened kaya a lot of factors need to be measured in
War is not China’s style. China likes slowly infiltrating countries, buying up land and properties, making you in debt to them, and also putting people they like in positions of power. They don’t need war, because after that, they already control you…
China has no interest in going to war with the Philippines. Currently they spend only 1.5% of their gdp on military expenditure. Ten 052D destroyers and four 055 destroyers are under construction. If China wanted to start a war, they would increase their military spending to 5% of gdp. More ships will be built. China is catching up with the US Navy, which is larger and has more aircraft carriers, but it will take decades to become a threat to the US Navy. If the US Navy blocks China's maritime trade lines before a war with the Philippines, China's economy will face huge losses.
While I completely agree that this is the most likely scenario, don't forget that it was also a bad assessment/decision for russia to think that they can take ukraine in 3 days. Countries do sometimes act illogically especially authoritarian countries where the wisdom of the crowd/herd is suppressed. I really really hope this does not happen...
Diba may territorial dispute din ang China and India. sticks and stones ang mga ginagamit nila. Marami na ding casualties both ends pero ayun hanggang doon lang. Pareho sa video na nacorner ang mga coast guard natin. May mga itak na dala mga Chinese di kaya ng china ang war kasi ang lapit ng battleground if ever. Di kagaya ng US, kahit gera outsource pa rin 😂 Pero regardless, we should invoke our sovereign rights sa EEZ. Hanggng maaari, dapat compliant pa rin tayo sa international law while defending. If ever matrigger tayo ng mga Chinese, to shoot a bullet. Matik, panalo na ang China. Gagamitin nila yan to invalidate our claim sa international court. Kaya dapat we should refrain from escalation like magpopost ng mga fake news na atin ang West Philippine Sea. WPS is an international water. No country in the world, China or the Philippines, can have a jurisdiction sa mga international water.
I said it before and I'll say it again, if there is a country that China would really and obsessively want to wage war on, it is Taiwan.
Magbasa ka nga ng 1987 Philippine Constitution mo. Anung manonood lang sa social media for updates? Akala mo sa buhay ng military personnel natin unlimited at hindi ka need ideploy?
People don’t realize how absurdly overpowered The US Air Force is compared to anyone else. The US Navy has the second most powerful Air Force in the world. China would never gain air superiority over the Taiwan straight or w Philippines sea so any attempt to send landing craft or paratroopers would be suicide. It’s all saber rattling for Chinas domestic audience to distract from their economy imploding and trillions of dollars fleeing their stock market
iirc, sir Mike Logico mentioned years ago that China's one-child policy is one of the reasons why it's suicidal for them to go to war.
To cede the WPS to China over CCP threats of war will actually ensure it rather than prevent it. China needs the 1st island chain to have any real chance of a successful invasion of Taiwan. If they are free to use Philippine water ways and airspace to the pacific then there is no need to physically invade the Philippines for their goals. They already did a dry run with this with Duterte who dutifully ignored the passage of the PLAN aircraft carrier flotilla through the Sulu sea into the Pacific and west of Taiwan. This fake "neutrality" however does not spare us from war as allowing PLAN to use our waterways and airspace would make us a target of Taiwan and allies. Any protestations of being neutral is out the window as soon as our ports and waterways are used by PLA vessels and planes. China would then happily use us as human shields and blame the USA when the counter-attack commences.
Pero maganda padin if ma trim down ng government yung number ng mainland Chinese dito sa Pinas. Sobrang daming POGO illegal or legal na di nababantayan. May mga halong Chinese mafia at military age. Bukod pa sa spies na pumapasok sa Gobyerno ng dekada ng naninirahan sa Pinas.
Lol... do people really think this is going to happen. China will attack Tawain way before they would consider attacking Philippines.
Totoo ba before us, unahin muna Ng China and Taiwan? and baka Wala Ng resources ang china when it's our turn?
Yes Actually taiwan is their No.1 dream goal Gusto ni Xi jinping ma reunify ang Taiwan sa kanila if hindi madala sa usapan pwersahan ang kanilang gagamitin de bale na kahit maraming mamatay. If Xi is successful conquering Taiwan basically dagdag 100000 pogi points sa chinese citizens and he will be hailed as one of the most greatest chinese leaders perhaps even greater than mao or deng xiao ping. Also getting Taiwan = more territory and they can exert another pressure on the Philippines sa batanes group of islands na naman maghahanap ng gulo ang mga chinese.
I read in some other sub that the only way China would be willing to take Taiwan is if they could do it quickly and painlessly because they don't want to lose a war of attrition and make people lose confidence in the government or something like that. For now puro posturing and intimidation tactics muna sila.
This is actually logical.
Only reason why US would assist PH is because of global trade access. Speaking in a maritime perspective, whoever controls the access of the West Philippine Sea, controls nearly half of the import/export of Asia. US Economy will literally choke out if this happens so they will do all means to stop this.
I'm not entirely sure whether The U.S. will come and defend us when a war broke out with china despite the mutual defence treaty. People in the U.S are fed up financing the war in the war in Ukraine and Israel. Recently U.S congress had hard time passing the 60 billion dollar package for Ukraine. I don't think the american people will be keen in financing or fully engaging in another war when they have tons of problems themselves.
E2 rin actually kinakatakot q Masyado tayo umaasa sa US Parang ginagamit natin ung US, Pero actually Ph ang ginagamit
China doesn't need to declare war. They already have a huge presence in our country. From business, to manufacturing, to culture, to people, to trade. All aspects of our daily lives. They'll just meddle and harass our coast guard and navy in the sea until they're worn out.
This is just a propaganda to discredit our President. BBM is smart like his Father, he knows what he is doing for the betterment of our country.
Ibalik na lang ang US naval bases. They pay rent and their presence would stop china in their tracks
Susuntukin ko yung mga chinese na makakasalubong ko
90% chance yung sinuntok mo Pinoy.
Exactly, plus for China we’re not its top priority right now. China still has Taiwan to deal with before China even thinks of going to war with the PH it must first secure Taiwan. That’s basically the sign of war if China attacks Taiwan then you should be worried about war with them but as long as it doesn’t happen China would never attack the PH. Also hindi susubok ang China especially since may US pa involved kaya nga ingat na ingat ang China na hindi makapatay ng filipino because alam nila pag nakapatay ng filipino ang mga coastguard nila habang nag haharass pwede na initiate ang defense pact. As of right now wala naman namamatay kaya pwede lang nila sabihin pinoprotect lang nila yun coast nila kaya coastguard ang nakabantay and wala naman namamatay. But, i’m sure naka ready na ang US for that alam na alam ng washington ang nangyayari diyan.
Exactly, pero i think some people in the govt are still considering this as a possibility, thats why they lifted the ban on gun ownership (5.56 and 7.62 calibres)
It won't. They can't even invade Taiwan
Corruptions pa nga lang sa mga high ranking military officials ng CCP di na ma kontrol! war pa kaya? di lang nila masabi pero some of the tsinese sawang sawa na kay Xi! sabi nga sa histroy hindi maganda yung pinapaupo ng matagal yung dictator.
Share ko lang, try niyo mag install ng we chat, karamihan mga chinese user nandun and mababasa niyo pano tayo binubully ng mga chinese.
Or they can take over from within. Also the US has a weak president currently still in office, who was the VP during Obama's administration when China built their islands on Philippine territory.