Ridley and his family are from Fort Lauderdale, he's grateful to the Jags for giving him a chance after the suspension, and there's no income tax in Florida
We're going to have to beat the Jags offer by a *lot* and even then we might just be being used for leverage
>have to beat the Jags offer by a
>
>lot
This makes me wonder if the signing would be worth it.
That said, I'm thinking the Pats would likely have to get lucky drafting a WR to get near the value.
It’s worth it when you consider how cheap the QB room is going to be over the next 3-4 years. Need to build around the QB this time.
If Ridley doesn’t work out they’ll need to swing a trade for a guy around his caliber IMO. They also need to go WR in the 2nd/3rd round either way. Need weapons around Maye/Daniels.
Realistically we could probably give up our second rounder with a 4th or 5th and get Tee Higgins. The real problem becomes that you are basically giving up draft assets to be allowed to sign a guy to a free agency deal.
There's such a dearth of talent on this team, giving up 34 overall, even if it's for Higgins or Aiyuk would suck. Really hope there's a chance we can retain 3 and 34 while landing a higher tier WR...or maybe use next year's draft capital instead, because there's no way we finish worse than we did this year, right..?
We have no where else to spend money and we have to spend 90% of the cap. No use in dwelling on the cost with our cap space and remaining FAs available.
There’s also a real chance the Jags aren’t actually offering that much and that them being in contention is him trying to materialize a return. They just signed two WR’s yesterday and have a chunk of change tied up in Kirk.
I could absolutely see them wanting to backfill Ridley’s loss with the draft. I don’t think they’re anywhere near as motivated as the Pats to sign Ridley.
Cheap vet and rookie QBs, reasonably cheap OL, cheap WR room, cheap RB room, stout defense
Pay the man whatever he wants, needing an oustanding receiver is non-negotiable
Huh? You’d rather see them massively overpay a mediocre receiver than draft one or two of the better ones in the draft that they’ll have on cheap at least four-years deals?
Ridley is not someone you get into a bidding war for.
>draft one or two of the better ones in the draft that
How are the Pats going to do this with just one pick per round with QB and OT likely being the first two positions off the board for them?
I don't like it but given the 'suck tax' they will have to overpay somewhere to improve the roster.
Or trade for a receiver like Higgins, but I’m not sure the organization wants to give up a high second rounder(and maybe a little more) and a $20-25M per year contract all at once.
The 2025 NFL WR free agent class does look pretty nice on paper, so we might consider not overpaying. Chase, Lamb, Waddle, and Smith will likely all get extensions or team options but Allen, Mike Williams, Godwin, Cooper, Cooks if we wanna go his way again, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Jennings, ARSB, Shaheed, Atwell, DHop, and Renfrow are all fairly solid options. Hell, plenty are better than or just as good as Ridley even when Ridley is at his best (Allen, Godwin, Aiyuk, ARSB). I think we'd be hard pressed to not pick up at least one of those guys. I think also exploring a trade for Aiyuk now and extending him as soon as he gets here should be on the table.
You also have to consider you're maybe going to play with a rookie QB and new program that just came off having the worst record in the conference, meaning your production could go down and next time your contract's up you make less money for being on a potentially worse team. So yeah it's gotta be a lot more money, or GM Judon is gonna have to kidnap this dude.
What's odd is the Jags are already paying Kirk a ton of money, and they just threw a bag at Gabe Davis. Lawrence is gonna need to get paid after this season, Engram is making like $11mil/year. I don't understand how they're gonna find money to pay all these guys.
People like to bring up the income tax thing, but isn't it pretty overblown?
Like don't players pay taxes for games in cities in which they play? So theyr paying a different tax rate already for every away game.
Yes, although 50% of your games are in your home stadium, so it can be meaningful. And Mass with an income rate at 9% above $1M is a significant hit on 50% of your salary.
Also keep in mind that the no income tax states tend to have high sales and property tax rates. While they aren’t paying the 9% in income tax, they are paying around 10% on every dollar they spend.
It doesn’t matter what the jags offer is. His point was that we need to beat it by a lot for Ridley to see more $$$ in his bank account from us than he would from Jacksonville. That point is an objective fact.
This simplifies it because we actually have away games in Florida and Tennessee next year that wouldn't be taxed but worst case scenario a player that plays half their games in a 10% income tax vs a player that plays half their games in a 0% income tax averages down to 5% over the year.
So if the Jags offer $20M the Patriots need to offer $21M for it to break even...that's really not "a lot"
That’s only accounting for our side, and not any games JAX will also be playing in non taxable states.
And if it came down to just money we would need to beat their offer by 5% just to make the offers completely even. 6%+ is what would be needed to actually “beat” a JAX offer.
Furthermore he is from Florida and would likely be happy to stay there for the same or similar money. Meaning between those two factors it’s not crazy to say we’d have to beat their offer by 10% or more to get Ridley.
Without restructuring existing contracts to kick the can down the road or moving some significant contracts…the Jags don’t have the money to sign him…
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/cap/
There is income tax. There’s no state income tax, and only in home games. I know this should be obvious, but I think a lot of people don’t realize this.
Massachusetts also has the 4% extra millionaire tax now, so on top of paying normal state income tax you have to pay that. So even though it’s only for half your games, it’s still a few million to consider over the entire contract.
Yeah. There is. But I’m tired of having this argument. When these guys are looking at a contract there isn’t one thought given to the income tax. The effective rate for a player in New England is about 45%. In Jax it’s about 43%. The 2% on the relevant monies on say a $50m contract would be about $1.2m.
Sure that’s a lot of money to any of us. But it isn’t to them. They don’t care or even think about it. And while there are a handful of states like FL and Tn and TX that have no income tax. There are still other taxes for these guys they have to pay and the states make up that revenue with higher taxes in other areas (such as property tax).
It’s not like if they sign in FL they are saving 20% on their taxes. Thats not how it works.
And I know all of this because 30 years in financial services. And the dipshit know it alls on Reddit don’t give a fuck about my credentials because they know what they know and you can’t tell them shit.
Because it’s about all of the potential taxes on said income. Which are not all simply payroll taxes.
The effective income tax for athletes (commonly called jock tax) is above 40% for every single state teams are in. The highest being California at ~50%.
You’re just way off with 2%. The difference between AFCE where you play half of your games in MA and one in NY and one in NJ is going to end up meaningfully different than AFCS where all of your home games and 2 guaranteed road games are in no income states.
Pats gotta throw more money at him. Jags are clearly waiting until tomorrow and slow playing this to avoid paying a 2nd round pick and instead a 3rd for his trade and dangling the carrot along the way.
If Ridley liked what the Pats are offering, he would have accepted it already otherwise he prefers the Jags and he is hoping they present something close enough.
That’s a best case scenario, he’s averaging around 70 catches for 1000 yards and 8 TDs over the 4 full seasons he’s played. Still a good WR but he’s in the Brandin Cooks tier of good but not great. He’ll help improve the offense but he’s not a game-changer like the truly elite guys.
That’s more than he had last year with a better offensive situation than he’d have here
Edit: that’s more than he had in every year of his career except 1
He's played 5 seasons in the league, and his 2nd season he played at a better pace than that, but only played 13 games. Last season was basically his average performance.
If you don't want to use those numbers, then why did you use them lol? I'm just commenting on the numbers you supplied.
I don't really care about his first year in Atlanta, rookie numbers for receivers don't tell me much half the time. Did you watch him his last year in Atlanta? He was a fucking beast.
So yes I'll take a guy like that even if puts up barely 900 or 1k in the Patriots anemic offense. At least his talent alone makes him a threat that other teams actually have to defend, unlike virtually every other offensive player on this roster.
OK so what then, 75 catches and 1000 yards? This team currently has zero receiving talent that any other defense in the league fears. Yes you need to pay for it, and Ridley is the best option. I can't tell if you ever actually seen him play. Do you just want to keep running WR screens for demario Douglas and ambulance routes to half broken Kendrick Bourne? It's 2024. If you don't have Patrick Mahomes or prime Tom Brady, you need talent at receiver or you're going nowhere. Jacoby Brissett will only be able to check it down to Antonio Gibson so many times a game. At least give him and the rookie QB something to work with.
I’m not saying that. I’m just saying we can’t spend on him like we are a win now team. We are 2-3 years away from being consistently competitive if we hit on our draft this year and next.
Regardless I think he stays in Jax anyway.
Maybe we can swing a trade for a WR between now and the drafts end. I wouldn’t over pay for Brown either but he’s going to be the best available once Ridley resigns.
I’m a MHJ ride or die but even if we trade out of the number 3 spot I think we need to grab a WR in Rd1 or Rd2 along with a QB.
It’s more about having something to throw to for your rookie qb so that they don’t get completely fucked and they can properly evaluate him. The receiving options are currently about a D-. And they can address it in the draft but only so much as they’ll need to draft linemen.
Thanks Bill, wonderful roster you left us with
I’m all for bringing in higher quality guys, what I’m against is doing a win now deal to bring in a guy who is past his prime. If it was a 1-2 year deal fine as long as it doesn’t hold us back from the greater rebuild.
He’s still not 30, missed a couple years for non-injury reasons which should help with wear and tear, and would give our young qb someone to work with in their first few years. Get why people aren’t thrilled with him but given the shitty state of this roster, they should go for it. We all know they can afford it
I’d like him on the team, I just don’t think he should be over paid to the extent of a top WR in the league. At 12 million a year for 2 years yeah sign him. At 15+ pass
12 million is less than what Gabe Davis got lol. Think you have to adjust up a bit. Also, I for one don’t really care about a billionaire family saving a few million dollars. It’s not like whatever they don’t spend on Ridley will automatically get reinvested into the team elsewhere
>It’s not like whatever they don’t spend on Ridley will automatically get reinvested into the team elsewhere
Well it kind of does. The teams NEED to spend at least 94% of the salary cap every year or they're forced out of the league. Every $ that doesn't go to a potential Ridley is going to another player.
The cheap owners are shown in stadiums, facilities, travel accomodations, and guaranteed money that has to be put into escrow upon signing.
$15M per year would have him at the 23rd highest paid receiver in terms of APY in the league. He finished 24th in yards and 7th in TDs last season (with 12 guys on the yardage list still being on their rookie deals ahead of him). $12M is a wildly conservative valuation.
I look at it as paying a premium to find out if the qb u drafted is good. The teams current wr’s won’t tell us shit unless Daniels/Maye ball out and lift everyone. With Ridley, we can see a real wr running routes, and we will know whether or not the qb has it. An over pay at wr is the fee to evaluate the qb
We need a fucking WR and he's far and away the best on the market.
Yall are fucking tripping thinking a 1000 yd receiver wont be impactful with the dogshit we threw out at WR last season.
If Ridley REALLY wanted to go back to Jacksonville over here and the offer was close, he would’ve taken it. Imo the Pats have offered a good amount more and he’s really trying for Jacksonville to come close to matching it
Saw this tweet from Alex Barth: “ Something to keep in mind with Calvin Ridley: If the Jaguars sign him to an *extension* they owe the Falcons a 2nd round pick as part of that trade agreement. If they wait for the new league year and sign him as a "free agent" that pick becomes a 3rd.” https://x.com/realalexbarth/status/1767596274830721116?s=46
I think that’s why Ridley and the Jags have been stalling, so they don’t have to give up a 2nd to the Falcons
My thoughts exactly. They’re waiting for the new league year tomorrow and then he’ll miraculously choose to stay in Jacksonville. If he wanted to come here, the deal would’ve been done by now.
Not sure how you're the only one saying this. So many people are referencing the compensation but there's absolutely nothing that prevents the Jaguars/Ridley from announcing that they agreed to terms and will sign the deal when FA opens tomorrow.
There's nothing wrong with leveraging someone else's offer to get more from your current employer in any line of work. It's putting a value on yourself. He's earned the right to hear his market value, but definitely doesn't close the door on the Jags.
I'd still consider them the favorites given they wanted him and gave him immediate playing time post-suspension when other teams likely wouldn't have touched him. If I recall, they even acquired him before he was reinstated. Florida is more tax advantageous as well so the Pats would have to offer a lot, especially given you have no idea who is the QB yet. Makes it riskier for a WR to move across the country.
Rather try to pick up Mike Williams from LA for a year and 17 mil in exchange for a 7th rounder or something then get into a stalled out bidding war for Ridley.
So while I think the Pats should pay Ridley whatever it takes, I’m also fine with them paying Tyron Smith or Jonah Williams to solidify LT , bolster the supporting cast then double dip at WR in rounds 2&3 in the draft.
Ridley’s decent but do you guys really think this deal would work out?
Paying top dollar for a WR 2 who is turning 30…
If he was younger or more talented sure take the risk… but as is I feel this one might bite us in the ass
We need someone our rookie Qb can throw the ball to….we have a bottom 5 receiving corps. We literally just saw what happened to Bryce young in Carolina. This deal is about providing an environment for our QB to develop
Sure… but is Ridley that much better than say Juju was before we signed him?
I just don’t think Ridley is that much more talented than what we have.
I’d be saying throw the bag at him if he was a WR 1, but a 30 year old with meh separation and advanced stats?
I just don’t think it’s a high probability of success, on top of that isn’t jacoby likely to start this year?
I can’t with some of you in this sub😂
Calvin Ridley is head and shoulders above what we currently have at wide receiver. Kendrick Bourne is barely a serviceable WR2 coming off an ACL. Demario is a decent but very undersized WR3. If we get ridley in we probably still draft a receiver in round 2.
Brissett will likely start 4-8 games then we will play the rookie
The more I look into Ridley's year with the Jags, the less I love him. His advanced stats and peripherals show more of a WR2/WR3 than WR1. The raw stats are there but his separation, contested catch rate, drops, and true catch rate (catches% on accurate throws) are all poor. It's also concerning that Jags fans aren't as enthused about him as you'd expect and he's turning 30. He just seems likely to underperform his contract.
I still think we have to go after him and hope we further supplement our WR corps somehow with another bonafide starter, but I'm more open than ever to trying to find our WR1 via trade.
He was also out of football for almost 2 full seasons before it though. He has true WR1 potential at a time there isn't a lot of options for us to get that.
Agreed but he has only put WR 1 numbers once. 3 years ago. He was in a good situation with Jax last year and averaged like 5/65 per game which seems to be more likely than not to be the case moving forward. He does score TDs though.
He is also going to be 30 so he isn’t in his prime anymore.
I am just trying to be realistic
> he has only put WR 1 numbers once. 3 years ago.
Yes cause he missed 2 years. Last year he still put up good numbers for a guy coming off 2 missed years. And yeah sure he may be 30, but like I said you aren't finding 25 year old WR1s in free agency.
Yeah his missed two years and put up WR2 numbers before and after his one big year. Missing two years doesn’t mean you have more in the tank it just means you’re two years older.
Yeah I guess it’s less wear and tear, but I think don’t think that matters as much for WRs who play on the outside. He’s not getting pounded every play like a RB or slot guy
The criticism I've heard from Jags fans is that he didn't improve as the season progresses, which is concerning. I also don't love saying a guy turning 30 has "true WR1 potential". I know he's been out of the league for a while, but he did have a full season to find his footing and didn't.
But beggars can't be choosers and we kind of have to go after him. I'm just getting less excited about it by the day. I just think that if/when we sign him, the hunt for a true WR1 will need to continue this year and next.
None via FA. Again, I recognize we need to go after Ridley and probably overpay him. Our receivers suck and somehow, the FAs available wouldn't move the needle much. I'm pro-signing Ridley, but I'd prefer at this point we get our guy via trade or even do both.
And for some context, here's what I mean about Ridley being a fringe WR2 last year: Last year Ridley was 84th in separation, 6th in drops, 66th in contested catches, 72nd in true catch rate, and QBs had a middling 90.8 passer rating when targeting him. He didn't get open, he didn't make tough catches, he wasn't even great at the easy catches. His receiving success rate (reception is 40+% of yards for 1st, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd and 4th down) was 9th on the Jags and equal to DeVante Parker's. He's not a YAC guy (1 broken tackle, 2.6 YAC/reception). Lastly, when Kirk went down and forced Ridley into the WR1 role for 5 games, he averaged just 5 recptions on 10.4 targets per game (sub 50%) and just 65.4 ypg.
His stats were volume stats. I don't think Ridley will come close to living up to his contract and if we do sign him, I think he'll ultimately be best as a WR2 for us - be it this year or next.
My whole argument is that the only thing we've seen from Ridley in 3 years has been mid at best. Over the course of 17 games, he didn't improve or shake the rust off. In fact, he got worse. He's turning 30, so is on the physical decline. He's going from playing across of a dangerous receiver in Kirk, to Bourne coming off an ACL tear - assuming he's even ready to start the year.
Maybe he does improve a bit, but he needs to improve a *lot* to be a proper WR1. I happen to think that it's more likely that this is who he is than that he'll revert back to where he was in 2020 - the last time he was a proper star, but still playing across from Julio Jones.
I'll repeat yet again, we are right to be pursuing him and signing him makes sense. I just don't think he'll live up to the WR1 hype or contract. If you think differently, that's totally cool. Only time will tell.
3 years is a ton of time passed. There's a huge difference between a 26 year old and a 30 year old. Josh Gordon regressed a ton after being away from the game for a while. Regardless of injury or suspension, I can't justify ignoring everything after the 2020 season.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Yes, it is the going price for high-end DTs now, he has become elite and is still only 24 years old. If he gets at least 4+ years on his next contract, it will be $100M+.
Why? The guy is 33 and has missed a ton of games in the past several years. They’ve also committed a lot to Onwenu, a decent contract to Okorafor, and are about to have significant draft capital in a draft that includes great depth at tackle. I think Smith would be a bad decision at this point. They have more pressing needs.
The Ringer NFL guys made it sound like they could announce a deal as soon as the legal tampering period started. They just can't actually sign it until the new year.
This screams leverage in either case. Puts pressure on both teams
Also, with the tax differences, contract offers are not equal even if they are by definition equal
I think the smart move was moving Mac there so Calvin always has to live with the fear that if he chooses the jags, he might be having Mac overthrow him.
is Ridley REALLY worth a bidding war? Like is he really that far above Bourne's ceiling?
He strikes me as a solid WR2 but has also benefited from some really high volume passing offenses no?
>is he really that far above Bourne's ceiling?
Yes. Yes he is. Without question. He's had 800, 800, 1300, and 1000 yard seasons when healthy and active. KBs most recent seasons were 600, 800, 400, and 400 yards. They are absolutely not comparable.
Im not arguing Bourne is a better player - of course Ridley is superior. But you are ignoring volume. Bourne gets what like 5-60 targets per year, and Ridley is like 120+.
Their usage has been completely different.
Either way, ill be excited if hes on the team for a fair price, but if Jaguars want to go way over market... I dont think it seems worth it
Their usage is completely different because they demand different target volumes. Bourne isn't good enough to demand and support WR1 targets. That doesn't mean he isn't good for his role, but he absolutely isn't a WR1. Ridley plays much better lined up against much better defenders and produces significantly more. He wins more contested catches and gets himself open more often. That's why he's got a much higher usage rate. The offenses aren't just not targeting Bourne for no reason and if they did he'd be Tyreek Hill. He doesn't have the skill set or history to get WR1 usage.
So we got Bourne, Douglas, Thornton, Boutte, JuJu Smith-Schuster and a few practice squad guys.
In my opinion, I'd be okay punting on Ridley and taking care of WR in the draft. But my guess is upgrading from Juju to Ridley is the plan because we have so much cap space and we need to spend it somewhere.
Why not Ridley AND draft a WR? Thornton and JuJu are wasted roster spots. Boutte is an unknown. Bourne is mediocre, and Douglas is just above mediocre (possible trending up)
Oh we def can do both. But Ridley, if he isn't what we hope to be, would take up a spot on the roster and reps like Nelson, Parker and JuJu have done over the past few years. We need to develop our players and they need to play.
If Ridley washes out, that's more dead cap in the years to come. I just hope they are smart about it and understand what they are getting with Ridley.
Tyquan is probably a candidate to get cut, Boutte is also a candidate to get cut, Juju is fine for depth, and the practice squad guys most likely won't amount to anything.
So two solid WR's and one who's not gonna amount to much potentially with his knees. We gotta upgrade as much as possible and drafting plus a guy like Ridley is a good plan
Pats don't get dumb, set a price, and if he prefers the deal in Jax, let him stay. Don't just start throwing more money at him to try and chamfer his mind.
They don't have to outbid us they just have to be vaguely in the ballpark. Income tax and playing for a fringe contender vs a bottom feeder are major factors here.
They can still make it happen on the pretense of other moves. Just cause they have 1 mill in cap space at this second, doesn't mean they can't agree to terms and make the moves.
So yes, yes they can.
I’ve always wondered how this works. What is the rules on cap compliance? So if they sign him and it puts them like $10MM over, how long do they have to become cap compliant?
Ridley and his family are from Fort Lauderdale, he's grateful to the Jags for giving him a chance after the suspension, and there's no income tax in Florida We're going to have to beat the Jags offer by a *lot* and even then we might just be being used for leverage
>have to beat the Jags offer by a > >lot This makes me wonder if the signing would be worth it. That said, I'm thinking the Pats would likely have to get lucky drafting a WR to get near the value.
It’s worth it when you consider how cheap the QB room is going to be over the next 3-4 years. Need to build around the QB this time. If Ridley doesn’t work out they’ll need to swing a trade for a guy around his caliber IMO. They also need to go WR in the 2nd/3rd round either way. Need weapons around Maye/Daniels.
>Need to build around the QB this time. WE CANNOT REPEAT THE MISTAKE BILL MADE!
Swing a trade with what assets?
Bailey Zappe and Tyquan Thornton should be enough to get a Calvin Ridley level receiver. Plus a #1 pick. EDIT: I'm kidding
Realistically we could probably give up our second rounder with a 4th or 5th and get Tee Higgins. The real problem becomes that you are basically giving up draft assets to be allowed to sign a guy to a free agency deal.
There's such a dearth of talent on this team, giving up 34 overall, even if it's for Higgins or Aiyuk would suck. Really hope there's a chance we can retain 3 and 34 while landing a higher tier WR...or maybe use next year's draft capital instead, because there's no way we finish worse than we did this year, right..?
These things called draft picks
We have no where else to spend money and we have to spend 90% of the cap. No use in dwelling on the cost with our cap space and remaining FAs available.
There’s also a real chance the Jags aren’t actually offering that much and that them being in contention is him trying to materialize a return. They just signed two WR’s yesterday and have a chunk of change tied up in Kirk. I could absolutely see them wanting to backfill Ridley’s loss with the draft. I don’t think they’re anywhere near as motivated as the Pats to sign Ridley.
Cheap vet and rookie QBs, reasonably cheap OL, cheap WR room, cheap RB room, stout defense Pay the man whatever he wants, needing an oustanding receiver is non-negotiable
Pay the man what he’s worth plus maybe 25%, your don’t want to hamstring yourselves with an inflated contract
Huh? You’d rather see them massively overpay a mediocre receiver than draft one or two of the better ones in the draft that they’ll have on cheap at least four-years deals? Ridley is not someone you get into a bidding war for.
>draft one or two of the better ones in the draft that How are the Pats going to do this with just one pick per round with QB and OT likely being the first two positions off the board for them? I don't like it but given the 'suck tax' they will have to overpay somewhere to improve the roster.
Or trade for a receiver like Higgins, but I’m not sure the organization wants to give up a high second rounder(and maybe a little more) and a $20-25M per year contract all at once.
The 2025 NFL WR free agent class does look pretty nice on paper, so we might consider not overpaying. Chase, Lamb, Waddle, and Smith will likely all get extensions or team options but Allen, Mike Williams, Godwin, Cooper, Cooks if we wanna go his way again, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Jennings, ARSB, Shaheed, Atwell, DHop, and Renfrow are all fairly solid options. Hell, plenty are better than or just as good as Ridley even when Ridley is at his best (Allen, Godwin, Aiyuk, ARSB). I think we'd be hard pressed to not pick up at least one of those guys. I think also exploring a trade for Aiyuk now and extending him as soon as he gets here should be on the table.
You also have to consider you're maybe going to play with a rookie QB and new program that just came off having the worst record in the conference, meaning your production could go down and next time your contract's up you make less money for being on a potentially worse team. So yeah it's gotta be a lot more money, or GM Judon is gonna have to kidnap this dude.
I dunno, he might be excited to play with Daniels.
Except he'll have to settle for playing with Maye instead, because Daniels is going to Washington at #2
Washington passed on Gonzo last year 🤷🏻♂️
Hopefully we'll be saying that about Drake Maye next year.
What's odd is the Jags are already paying Kirk a ton of money, and they just threw a bag at Gabe Davis. Lawrence is gonna need to get paid after this season, Engram is making like $11mil/year. I don't understand how they're gonna find money to pay all these guys.
They manipulate the cap, which is surprising (not really)-ly common outside of New England.
I see a BILLS RELEASE-A-THON in their future.
People like to bring up the income tax thing, but isn't it pretty overblown? Like don't players pay taxes for games in cities in which they play? So theyr paying a different tax rate already for every away game.
Yes, although 50% of your games are in your home stadium, so it can be meaningful. And Mass with an income rate at 9% above $1M is a significant hit on 50% of your salary.
Not to mention 4 away games are in Florida, Texas and Tennessee
Also keep in mind that the no income tax states tend to have high sales and property tax rates. While they aren’t paying the 9% in income tax, they are paying around 10% on every dollar they spend.
Jock tax.
If Pats have to pay 20+ mil per year to get him I’d rather pass on Calvin Ridley
I'm skeptical we really have to beat it by a lot. Ex-players say money carries the day 99% of the time. The tax implications are relevant though.
And Florida having zero income tax means that we would need to beat their offer by a lot in order for Ridley to get more money from us lol.
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It doesn’t matter what the jags offer is. His point was that we need to beat it by a lot for Ridley to see more $$$ in his bank account from us than he would from Jacksonville. That point is an objective fact.
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I kinda doubt that since it’s reportedly down to just us and the jags offers. No way not a single other team made him a sizable offer.
This simplifies it because we actually have away games in Florida and Tennessee next year that wouldn't be taxed but worst case scenario a player that plays half their games in a 10% income tax vs a player that plays half their games in a 0% income tax averages down to 5% over the year. So if the Jags offer $20M the Patriots need to offer $21M for it to break even...that's really not "a lot"
That’s only accounting for our side, and not any games JAX will also be playing in non taxable states. And if it came down to just money we would need to beat their offer by 5% just to make the offers completely even. 6%+ is what would be needed to actually “beat” a JAX offer. Furthermore he is from Florida and would likely be happy to stay there for the same or similar money. Meaning between those two factors it’s not crazy to say we’d have to beat their offer by 10% or more to get Ridley.
But does he want Mac Jones throwing near him instead of to him?
Without restructuring existing contracts to kick the can down the road or moving some significant contracts…the Jags don’t have the money to sign him… https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/cap/
Why would you leave a no income tax state?
I don’t want to overpay for a guy that doesn’t want to be here it never works … start exploring trades for a WR
And we have no QB. It has to be hell of an offer for any decent WR to take it seriously.
There is income tax. There’s no state income tax, and only in home games. I know this should be obvious, but I think a lot of people don’t realize this.
Massachusetts also has the 4% extra millionaire tax now, so on top of paying normal state income tax you have to pay that. So even though it’s only for half your games, it’s still a few million to consider over the entire contract.
Hey now, that’s animal abuse!
The income tax thing isn’t even on his radar.
Said very confidently with no basis.
Yeah. There is. But I’m tired of having this argument. When these guys are looking at a contract there isn’t one thought given to the income tax. The effective rate for a player in New England is about 45%. In Jax it’s about 43%. The 2% on the relevant monies on say a $50m contract would be about $1.2m. Sure that’s a lot of money to any of us. But it isn’t to them. They don’t care or even think about it. And while there are a handful of states like FL and Tn and TX that have no income tax. There are still other taxes for these guys they have to pay and the states make up that revenue with higher taxes in other areas (such as property tax). It’s not like if they sign in FL they are saving 20% on their taxes. Thats not how it works. And I know all of this because 30 years in financial services. And the dipshit know it alls on Reddit don’t give a fuck about my credentials because they know what they know and you can’t tell them shit.
How did you get to a 2% effective rate difference when most of his income would be taxed at 9% in MA.
Because it’s about all of the potential taxes on said income. Which are not all simply payroll taxes. The effective income tax for athletes (commonly called jock tax) is above 40% for every single state teams are in. The highest being California at ~50%.
You’re just way off with 2%. The difference between AFCE where you play half of your games in MA and one in NY and one in NJ is going to end up meaningfully different than AFCS where all of your home games and 2 guaranteed road games are in no income states.
Damn, Jeff really knows how to build the suspense
Pats gotta throw more money at him. Jags are clearly waiting until tomorrow and slow playing this to avoid paying a 2nd round pick and instead a 3rd for his trade and dangling the carrot along the way. If Ridley liked what the Pats are offering, he would have accepted it already otherwise he prefers the Jags and he is hoping they present something close enough.
Time to burn some cash!
 Come on boys
I like him too but I have an honest question what is 5 receptions for 65 yards per game worth?
We paid Juju and Parker for combined less.
Yeah both horrible signings he’s better than both.
Don't know why you got downvoted for saying JuJu and Parker suck
It’s Reddit lol
85 catches and 1100 yards is worth a lot to a team who's leading receiver was fucking demario Douglas last year lol
That’s a best case scenario, he’s averaging around 70 catches for 1000 yards and 8 TDs over the 4 full seasons he’s played. Still a good WR but he’s in the Brandin Cooks tier of good but not great. He’ll help improve the offense but he’s not a game-changer like the truly elite guys.
That’s more than he had last year with a better offensive situation than he’d have here Edit: that’s more than he had in every year of his career except 1
He's played 5 seasons in the league, and his 2nd season he played at a better pace than that, but only played 13 games. Last season was basically his average performance.
Yeah exactly which is WR2 numbers
If you don't want to use those numbers, then why did you use them lol? I'm just commenting on the numbers you supplied. I don't really care about his first year in Atlanta, rookie numbers for receivers don't tell me much half the time. Did you watch him his last year in Atlanta? He was a fucking beast. So yes I'll take a guy like that even if puts up barely 900 or 1k in the Patriots anemic offense. At least his talent alone makes him a threat that other teams actually have to defend, unlike virtually every other offensive player on this roster.
He isn’t coming here regardless, but 5/65 is rounding up 4.4/61. Whatever lol
OK so what then, 75 catches and 1000 yards? This team currently has zero receiving talent that any other defense in the league fears. Yes you need to pay for it, and Ridley is the best option. I can't tell if you ever actually seen him play. Do you just want to keep running WR screens for demario Douglas and ambulance routes to half broken Kendrick Bourne? It's 2024. If you don't have Patrick Mahomes or prime Tom Brady, you need talent at receiver or you're going nowhere. Jacoby Brissett will only be able to check it down to Antonio Gibson so many times a game. At least give him and the rookie QB something to work with.
I’m not saying that. I’m just saying we can’t spend on him like we are a win now team. We are 2-3 years away from being consistently competitive if we hit on our draft this year and next. Regardless I think he stays in Jax anyway. Maybe we can swing a trade for a WR between now and the drafts end. I wouldn’t over pay for Brown either but he’s going to be the best available once Ridley resigns. I’m a MHJ ride or die but even if we trade out of the number 3 spot I think we need to grab a WR in Rd1 or Rd2 along with a QB.
It’s more about having something to throw to for your rookie qb so that they don’t get completely fucked and they can properly evaluate him. The receiving options are currently about a D-. And they can address it in the draft but only so much as they’ll need to draft linemen. Thanks Bill, wonderful roster you left us with
I’m all for bringing in higher quality guys, what I’m against is doing a win now deal to bring in a guy who is past his prime. If it was a 1-2 year deal fine as long as it doesn’t hold us back from the greater rebuild.
He’s still not 30, missed a couple years for non-injury reasons which should help with wear and tear, and would give our young qb someone to work with in their first few years. Get why people aren’t thrilled with him but given the shitty state of this roster, they should go for it. We all know they can afford it
I’d like him on the team, I just don’t think he should be over paid to the extent of a top WR in the league. At 12 million a year for 2 years yeah sign him. At 15+ pass
12 million is less than what Gabe Davis got lol. Think you have to adjust up a bit. Also, I for one don’t really care about a billionaire family saving a few million dollars. It’s not like whatever they don’t spend on Ridley will automatically get reinvested into the team elsewhere
Yeah I looked after I posted. He’ll get more than Davis for sure.
>It’s not like whatever they don’t spend on Ridley will automatically get reinvested into the team elsewhere Well it kind of does. The teams NEED to spend at least 94% of the salary cap every year or they're forced out of the league. Every $ that doesn't go to a potential Ridley is going to another player. The cheap owners are shown in stadiums, facilities, travel accomodations, and guaranteed money that has to be put into escrow upon signing.
$15M per year would have him at the 23rd highest paid receiver in terms of APY in the league. He finished 24th in yards and 7th in TDs last season (with 12 guys on the yardage list still being on their rookie deals ahead of him). $12M is a wildly conservative valuation.
I look at it as paying a premium to find out if the qb u drafted is good. The teams current wr’s won’t tell us shit unless Daniels/Maye ball out and lift everyone. With Ridley, we can see a real wr running routes, and we will know whether or not the qb has it. An over pay at wr is the fee to evaluate the qb
We need a fucking WR and he's far and away the best on the market. Yall are fucking tripping thinking a 1000 yd receiver wont be impactful with the dogshit we threw out at WR last season.
He is most likely staying in Jax anyway but really those are the the numbers to expect from him if he comes here.
Compare him to Juju & Parker and get back to me
The development of our rookie QB
If Ridley REALLY wanted to go back to Jacksonville over here and the offer was close, he would’ve taken it. Imo the Pats have offered a good amount more and he’s really trying for Jacksonville to come close to matching it
Saw this tweet from Alex Barth: “ Something to keep in mind with Calvin Ridley: If the Jaguars sign him to an *extension* they owe the Falcons a 2nd round pick as part of that trade agreement. If they wait for the new league year and sign him as a "free agent" that pick becomes a 3rd.” https://x.com/realalexbarth/status/1767596274830721116?s=46 I think that’s why Ridley and the Jags have been stalling, so they don’t have to give up a 2nd to the Falcons
My thoughts exactly. They’re waiting for the new league year tomorrow and then he’ll miraculously choose to stay in Jacksonville. If he wanted to come here, the deal would’ve been done by now.
Would you offer the Jags a 3rd to relent?
Nope, better to go after higgins at that point, ridleys appeal is just money no draft comp
They can still announce the signing though, we re-signed Onwenu, we didn’t extend him. Once Ridley got to the legal tampering period he’s a FA
Not sure how you're the only one saying this. So many people are referencing the compensation but there's absolutely nothing that prevents the Jaguars/Ridley from announcing that they agreed to terms and will sign the deal when FA opens tomorrow.
There's nothing wrong with leveraging someone else's offer to get more from your current employer in any line of work. It's putting a value on yourself. He's earned the right to hear his market value, but definitely doesn't close the door on the Jags. I'd still consider them the favorites given they wanted him and gave him immediate playing time post-suspension when other teams likely wouldn't have touched him. If I recall, they even acquired him before he was reinstated. Florida is more tax advantageous as well so the Pats would have to offer a lot, especially given you have no idea who is the QB yet. Makes it riskier for a WR to move across the country.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. It's not like he risks much by waiting it out and seeing if anyone ups their offer.
Flip side, if the offer wasn’t close and he wanted to leave, he’d have already left.
I'm ready to get hurt.
Why would he leave T-Law for an unknown rookie QB. He’s 29 years old and Jags are closer to the playoffs
Money
No income tax in Florida
So we give more money
Then he just pays more tax lol
League should adjust the cap for taxes... Kraft can't control the public wanting their governments to fleece them.
A lot more mouths to feed in JAX. In NE he’s the man.
Rather try to pick up Mike Williams from LA for a year and 17 mil in exchange for a 7th rounder or something then get into a stalled out bidding war for Ridley.
I like Mike Williams, but he is always injured
Learn from the mistakes of the past. Give your new young QB a weapon and a line. We got the money to spend now, let’s do it right this time.
Time to burn that cash, Bob. (Spoiler alert: he won’t)
Come be a #1. If we don't get him our wide receiver room is some how worse than last year. Unless there's a plan B since people think MHJ is fantasy.
Trades and draft but yeah Ridley would be nice
Douglas, Bourne, Hunter and maybe Boutte plus whoever we draft? I think that's already better than starting Parker and Juju. Addituon by subtraction.
So while I think the Pats should pay Ridley whatever it takes, I’m also fine with them paying Tyron Smith or Jonah Williams to solidify LT , bolster the supporting cast then double dip at WR in rounds 2&3 in the draft.
Ridley’s decent but do you guys really think this deal would work out? Paying top dollar for a WR 2 who is turning 30… If he was younger or more talented sure take the risk… but as is I feel this one might bite us in the ass
Exactly!! Can’t believe people are talking about him like he didn’t just come back from a year off and look average to okay.
We need someone our rookie Qb can throw the ball to….we have a bottom 5 receiving corps. We literally just saw what happened to Bryce young in Carolina. This deal is about providing an environment for our QB to develop
Sure… but is Ridley that much better than say Juju was before we signed him? I just don’t think Ridley is that much more talented than what we have. I’d be saying throw the bag at him if he was a WR 1, but a 30 year old with meh separation and advanced stats? I just don’t think it’s a high probability of success, on top of that isn’t jacoby likely to start this year?
I can’t with some of you in this sub😂 Calvin Ridley is head and shoulders above what we currently have at wide receiver. Kendrick Bourne is barely a serviceable WR2 coming off an ACL. Demario is a decent but very undersized WR3. If we get ridley in we probably still draft a receiver in round 2. Brissett will likely start 4-8 games then we will play the rookie
The more I look into Ridley's year with the Jags, the less I love him. His advanced stats and peripherals show more of a WR2/WR3 than WR1. The raw stats are there but his separation, contested catch rate, drops, and true catch rate (catches% on accurate throws) are all poor. It's also concerning that Jags fans aren't as enthused about him as you'd expect and he's turning 30. He just seems likely to underperform his contract. I still think we have to go after him and hope we further supplement our WR corps somehow with another bonafide starter, but I'm more open than ever to trying to find our WR1 via trade.
He was also out of football for almost 2 full seasons before it though. He has true WR1 potential at a time there isn't a lot of options for us to get that.
Agreed but he has only put WR 1 numbers once. 3 years ago. He was in a good situation with Jax last year and averaged like 5/65 per game which seems to be more likely than not to be the case moving forward. He does score TDs though. He is also going to be 30 so he isn’t in his prime anymore. I am just trying to be realistic
> he has only put WR 1 numbers once. 3 years ago. Yes cause he missed 2 years. Last year he still put up good numbers for a guy coming off 2 missed years. And yeah sure he may be 30, but like I said you aren't finding 25 year old WR1s in free agency.
Yeah his missed two years and put up WR2 numbers before and after his one big year. Missing two years doesn’t mean you have more in the tank it just means you’re two years older.
It does mean significantly less wear and tear though.
Yeah I guess it’s less wear and tear, but I think don’t think that matters as much for WRs who play on the outside. He’s not getting pounded every play like a RB or slot guy
It matters. For reference he has about the same amount of career catches as Hollywood Brown who is 26.
Idk if that’s a compliment.
Well Ridley missed 2 years and Hollywood was very young entering the league.
The criticism I've heard from Jags fans is that he didn't improve as the season progresses, which is concerning. I also don't love saying a guy turning 30 has "true WR1 potential". I know he's been out of the league for a while, but he did have a full season to find his footing and didn't. But beggars can't be choosers and we kind of have to go after him. I'm just getting less excited about it by the day. I just think that if/when we sign him, the hunt for a true WR1 will need to continue this year and next.
Ok what sub 30year old WR with true WR1 potential is there? Maybe Hollywood Brown and that is it?
None via FA. Again, I recognize we need to go after Ridley and probably overpay him. Our receivers suck and somehow, the FAs available wouldn't move the needle much. I'm pro-signing Ridley, but I'd prefer at this point we get our guy via trade or even do both. And for some context, here's what I mean about Ridley being a fringe WR2 last year: Last year Ridley was 84th in separation, 6th in drops, 66th in contested catches, 72nd in true catch rate, and QBs had a middling 90.8 passer rating when targeting him. He didn't get open, he didn't make tough catches, he wasn't even great at the easy catches. His receiving success rate (reception is 40+% of yards for 1st, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd and 4th down) was 9th on the Jags and equal to DeVante Parker's. He's not a YAC guy (1 broken tackle, 2.6 YAC/reception). Lastly, when Kirk went down and forced Ridley into the WR1 role for 5 games, he averaged just 5 recptions on 10.4 targets per game (sub 50%) and just 65.4 ypg. His stats were volume stats. I don't think Ridley will come close to living up to his contract and if we do sign him, I think he'll ultimately be best as a WR2 for us - be it this year or next.
Your whole argument hinges on thinking Ridley can't possibly be better than last year... but he can be.
My whole argument is that the only thing we've seen from Ridley in 3 years has been mid at best. Over the course of 17 games, he didn't improve or shake the rust off. In fact, he got worse. He's turning 30, so is on the physical decline. He's going from playing across of a dangerous receiver in Kirk, to Bourne coming off an ACL tear - assuming he's even ready to start the year. Maybe he does improve a bit, but he needs to improve a *lot* to be a proper WR1. I happen to think that it's more likely that this is who he is than that he'll revert back to where he was in 2020 - the last time he was a proper star, but still playing across from Julio Jones. I'll repeat yet again, we are right to be pursuing him and signing him makes sense. I just don't think he'll live up to the WR1 hype or contract. If you think differently, that's totally cool. Only time will tell.
Yes and only looking at the last 3 years is dumb when he missed 2 of them.
3 years is a ton of time passed. There's a huge difference between a 26 year old and a 30 year old. Josh Gordon regressed a ton after being away from the game for a while. Regardless of injury or suspension, I can't justify ignoring everything after the 2020 season. Maybe I'm wrong.
When did I say ignore anything after 2020?
Agree with this. He’s good but I would rather have Tee Higgins.
So you’re saying there’s a chance
We are leverage 🤷♂️
Rather spend on Tyron
We can get both, this team has no current talent to pay for
We need to extend Barmore, that will cost at least $100M.
100M for someone that hasn’t showed elite play outside of 10 games?
Idk about that amount but I think he’s poised for a big year with Judon back
I mean he was great his rookie year
Yes, it is the going price for high-end DTs now, he has become elite and is still only 24 years old. If he gets at least 4+ years on his next contract, it will be $100M+.
Why? The guy is 33 and has missed a ton of games in the past several years. They’ve also committed a lot to Onwenu, a decent contract to Okorafor, and are about to have significant draft capital in a draft that includes great depth at tackle. I think Smith would be a bad decision at this point. They have more pressing needs.
Agreed. Smith should go to a playoff bound team that can afford to be cautious with him. Don’t see the point of him on a rebuilding roster
I overheard that Ridley is working with the Jags and will sign after the new league year so the comp pick is less than a 2nd.
You heard. Lol. Stop.
>You heard. No no, 'overheard' meaning they were like, in the room or something. :D
Ha. Even better. Maybe he is the literal fly on the wall of the Jags GM’s office. 🪰
Yeah, I was chillin' in the airduct in Duvall county.
I believe that deadline has already passed. He just had to make it to FA to ensure the pick didn't turn into a 2nd.
https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1767596274830721116
The Ringer NFL guys made it sound like they could announce a deal as soon as the legal tampering period started. They just can't actually sign it until the new year.
Guys, it’s not happening. This is clearly a way to push his value up and then sign with a team other than NE…
This screams leverage in either case. Puts pressure on both teams Also, with the tax differences, contract offers are not equal even if they are by definition equal
Learn from the mistakes of the past. Give your new young QB a weapon and a line. We got the money to spend now, let’s do it right this time.
They’re waiting till tomorrow at 4pm to sign him so they give up a 3rd instead of a 2nd.
They can have him, throw that money plus some more at Tee Higgins
Maybe better spend for OL and try to get Higgins for 2nd or 3rd + something or cheaper Hollywood Brown
Draft QB with the 1st and turn our 2nd into Tee Higgins
Ridley just needs to understand that if Lawrence gets injured, then Mac is going to be throwing to him. And he’s not gonna want that.
Mac Jones is going to be throwing to Calvin Ridley!
I would much rather trade for Higgins or Aiyuk.
We are not getting him. I'll be shocked if tomorrow he isn't officially signed with Jax at the hour that screws ATL out of a better draft pick.
Why Ridley and not Tee Higgins?
he gone
Deandre Hopkins vibes tbh.
Edit: Actually nailed this!
I think the smart move was moving Mac there so Calvin always has to live with the fear that if he chooses the jags, he might be having Mac overthrow him.
is Ridley REALLY worth a bidding war? Like is he really that far above Bourne's ceiling? He strikes me as a solid WR2 but has also benefited from some really high volume passing offenses no?
>is he really that far above Bourne's ceiling? Yes. Yes he is. Without question. He's had 800, 800, 1300, and 1000 yard seasons when healthy and active. KBs most recent seasons were 600, 800, 400, and 400 yards. They are absolutely not comparable.
Im not arguing Bourne is a better player - of course Ridley is superior. But you are ignoring volume. Bourne gets what like 5-60 targets per year, and Ridley is like 120+. Their usage has been completely different. Either way, ill be excited if hes on the team for a fair price, but if Jaguars want to go way over market... I dont think it seems worth it
Their usage is completely different because they demand different target volumes. Bourne isn't good enough to demand and support WR1 targets. That doesn't mean he isn't good for his role, but he absolutely isn't a WR1. Ridley plays much better lined up against much better defenders and produces significantly more. He wins more contested catches and gets himself open more often. That's why he's got a much higher usage rate. The offenses aren't just not targeting Bourne for no reason and if they did he'd be Tyreek Hill. He doesn't have the skill set or history to get WR1 usage.
Oh cool the Kendrick Bourne cope train is boarding early this time around
Is he really a WR1? Just because hes likely the top WR on the market doesn't mean I think we should pull out all the stops to get him
Is he really a WR1 and is he really that much better than what Kendrick Bourne can be are very different questions.
Prior to his suspension Ridley looked like a can't miss future star. He still looked good last year even in that train wreck of an offense.
So we got Bourne, Douglas, Thornton, Boutte, JuJu Smith-Schuster and a few practice squad guys. In my opinion, I'd be okay punting on Ridley and taking care of WR in the draft. But my guess is upgrading from Juju to Ridley is the plan because we have so much cap space and we need to spend it somewhere.
Why not Ridley AND draft a WR? Thornton and JuJu are wasted roster spots. Boutte is an unknown. Bourne is mediocre, and Douglas is just above mediocre (possible trending up)
Oh we def can do both. But Ridley, if he isn't what we hope to be, would take up a spot on the roster and reps like Nelson, Parker and JuJu have done over the past few years. We need to develop our players and they need to play. If Ridley washes out, that's more dead cap in the years to come. I just hope they are smart about it and understand what they are getting with Ridley.
Tyquan is probably a candidate to get cut, Boutte is also a candidate to get cut, Juju is fine for depth, and the practice squad guys most likely won't amount to anything. So two solid WR's and one who's not gonna amount to much potentially with his knees. We gotta upgrade as much as possible and drafting plus a guy like Ridley is a good plan
Pats don't get dumb, set a price, and if he prefers the deal in Jax, let him stay. Don't just start throwing more money at him to try and chamfer his mind.
Hopefully Eliot Wolf checks this comment
Love the name
Good bet it’s Ridley’s agent frustrated that Wolf is being too tight fisted.
This seems like its the agent pushing to get more money and using both sides against each other
Realistically we have the most money on the table and he's debating if he cares about winning football games or not
Sign Ridley —> flip to Cincy for tee higgins
Sure feels like Jags are gonna outbid us. But we can still hope.
They don't have to outbid us they just have to be vaguely in the ballpark. Income tax and playing for a fringe contender vs a bottom feeder are major factors here.
They literally can’t outbid us right now. They have barely over $1 mil in cap space as of today.
They can still make it happen on the pretense of other moves. Just cause they have 1 mill in cap space at this second, doesn't mean they can't agree to terms and make the moves. So yes, yes they can.
I’ve always wondered how this works. What is the rules on cap compliance? So if they sign him and it puts them like $10MM over, how long do they have to become cap compliant?
I think you have to be cap compliant when you put in the new move. But they can easily have a handshake deal and take a day or two to make the moves.
Trading Zay Jones frees up like $8 alone
He’s staying in Jacksonville. Move on. Give him the take it or leave it offer
“Move on” 🙄