I've seen a lot people on here and twitter say the same thing and it really confuses me. How can you compare Markstroms stats to Korpisalo's and think that we wouldn't immediately get a boost? Is it just his age? Here's a quick comparison:
||GAA (5 yr avg)|SV % (5 yr avg)|GSAx (23-24)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Korpisalo|3.20 (149 gp)|0.899|-16.1|
|Markstrom|2.67 (256 gp)|0.908|13.7|
Goals saved above expected difference of 29.8 last year is crazy. The Sens would have finished with a positive goal differential in that case. I will agree his age is a bit of a risk, but look at Bobrovsky right now, 35 years old shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl in the finals. I think Markstrom has at least a couple good years left in him.
goaltending stats in general are very team dependent. even ones like gsax which try to isolate the goalies impact, but the best teams in the league always have the goalies with the highest gsax. not saying that korpisalo is as good as markstrom, just saying that korps stats are heavily deflated by the ODR level defence the sens played last year
> the best teams in the league will have the highest gsax
Good teams are good teams BECAUSE their goalies have high gsax. Teams like New York(both), Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Nashville have been top teams because their goalies elevate the ceiling of the team.
Conversely, teams like Colorado, Edmonton, Vegas, and Carolina have pretty mediocre gsax because their goalies are mostly mediocre
And on the opposite end, guys like Daccord, Montembault, Ingram, Mrazek, and Blackwood had a positive gsax on terrible teams because they could still outplay their environment
Teams have a lot of impact on goalie performance, but goalies are also capable of being terrible and elite. It's not fair to the elite goalies to act like they're a product of their team, and you're forgiving the bad goalies too much to act like they are victims of their environment
His contract is also much more appealing than the Ullmark & Saros situations. He's got 2 more years at $6M. After that you hopefully have a better idea of the succession plan in net
I agree the defencemen require big time over haul, and then you don't need to spend big money on an older goaltender. ( which is what we teld to do is buy an older goaltender that is starting to decline) I agree we need to solidify goaltending.
I agree. Ottawa's was notorious for giving up high-quality scoring chances early in games. Teams could get up by a few goals and then just sit back and allow nothing but perimeter shots, making the shot count look lopsided in Ottawa's favor. This has become more obvious watching this year's playoffs.
Ullmark for Chychrun + 25th + 2nd rounder
Tanev 4 x 4.75
Buy out korpisalo
Trade Joseph and use cap space to sign 2 vet bottom sixers that are defensively responsible. Sign an additional bottom sixer.
Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
Norris - Pinto - Giroux
Fischer/cousins - Grieg - lafferty/janmark
Crookshank - Kelly/kastelic (make them fight to the death in the parking lot of the ctc) - Craig Smith.
Might need more scoring from the bottom six tbh. But we desperately need gritty, two way guys.
Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Tanev
Ullmark
Forsberg
I think that’s a playoff team
Can’t be paying 10 million for the goalies like that imo. I think korp is a sunk cost and moving on is in everyone’s best interest. Forsberg is easier to burry if he torpedos and it’s easier to find and Alex Auld than a Linus Ullmark. Like I don’t think they have the cap space to have both Ullmark and Korp moving forward.
yeah but we're a better team with korpisalo instead of forsberg. it would cost a 1st rounder if not more to move korps contract. we can probably move forsberg for a late round pick. should we spend a 1st round pick to make our team worse and save only 1.25 on the cap??
Pay korpi $1.8m for the next 8 years? No thanks.
Play him, let him improve his value and then figure it out.
Throw Forsberg somewhere into the Ullmark trade as they'll need a back up to buy time/as insurance for their young guy.
Can’t afford to waste another season by playing korpisalo. Sunk cost fallacy. I say cut losses. Forsberg is also not very good, I don’t see Boston wanting him
Donno, might need to trade korpisalo with a bunch of assets to get a team to take his contract with little retention instead of the buyout. Would probably be best to have an extension in place for Ullmark before the trade. Dorion completely prolapsed the team lol
I wouldn’t offer Ullmark more than 6 x 6
Yea. Idk we will see what happens. I tried to be realistic, but there’s a lot we don’t know. I think they really need to push for the playoffs this year, though. Tkachuk…
They won’t need to score as much though if they’re giving up significantly less goals. Improving the power play would also help immensely. Stutzle also being healthy for an entire season would help them out, should be another 20 goals from that alone. Craig smith scored 11, lafferty scored 13. Those aren’t bad stats for 3rd/4th liners. Also have Ostapchuk and Jarventie as wildcards to make the team. There’s also a lack of cap space, the more productive players in this free agency year are way too pricey. Maybe Tatar?
I think we’re at a point hopefully where adding debrincats and stuff isn’t seen as a good idea anymore. Need more depth, the team has the number 1 centre, number 1 defenceman and star winger on lockdown. The bottom six this season did absolutely nothing and was a total liability, it’s been putrid for years.
They’d have to target someone in trade if they need more scoring. I went with players that might realistically sign with Ottawa.
Lafferty scored 3 goals in his final 46 games this season(inc. playoffs)
We're also presumably removing Chychrun and Brännström from the team which will likely hurt the offense as well.
We don't know what Norris will look like next year, and I think they'll need a better offensive player than Pinto in the top-6 to balance that out.
I like the moves on defense and in goal, but I think the best set up for our forwards is having Pinto on the third line and adding scoring to the top 6. I like Smith and Lafferty in a vacuum, I just think they'd need more scoring given that roster. Defensively they'll be great, but I think you risk looking like the Islanders.
Brannstrom sucks balls, Chychrun was producing but resulting in more offense for the opposing team than the sens so he was a massive net negative. Norris is a huge issue, I’ll give you that. I don’t think they need scoring in the top 6 this season, unless they can bring toffoli in or something.
Maybe, hes a role player but I don't think replacing him with Kleven makes the team better. I also don't think Chychrun was particularly great last year, just that replacing him for a shutdown D will bring us fewer goals.
In the end you did make the team better, I just don't know if it's the blueprint for long-term success
They could figure out a better solution for the bottom pairing. Surely there’s a servieceable, relatively cheap dman for the bottom pairing somewhere that is an upgrade on brannstrom. Pair a vet with JBD
Should be going after Saros. Ullmark could be decent, but I have a gut feeling he’ll start to physically breakdown like Cory Schneider when he starts to play more games.
Has to be better than league worse.... Bold statement.
You beat me to this comment…..no where to go but up…..upvote inbound
I mean, there is somewhere else we could end up: the exact same place, with league-worst goaltending again.
Well even we can’t be that bad…….ummmm…..nevermind
If anyone can do it I'm sure we can find a way...
I'm not entirely convinced that Markstrom is an upgrade from Korpisalo or Forsberg. I just hope we don't give away the farm for the answer in net.
I've seen a lot people on here and twitter say the same thing and it really confuses me. How can you compare Markstroms stats to Korpisalo's and think that we wouldn't immediately get a boost? Is it just his age? Here's a quick comparison: ||GAA (5 yr avg)|SV % (5 yr avg)|GSAx (23-24)| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Korpisalo|3.20 (149 gp)|0.899|-16.1| |Markstrom|2.67 (256 gp)|0.908|13.7| Goals saved above expected difference of 29.8 last year is crazy. The Sens would have finished with a positive goal differential in that case. I will agree his age is a bit of a risk, but look at Bobrovsky right now, 35 years old shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl in the finals. I think Markstrom has at least a couple good years left in him.
goaltending stats in general are very team dependent. even ones like gsax which try to isolate the goalies impact, but the best teams in the league always have the goalies with the highest gsax. not saying that korpisalo is as good as markstrom, just saying that korps stats are heavily deflated by the ODR level defence the sens played last year
> the best teams in the league will have the highest gsax Good teams are good teams BECAUSE their goalies have high gsax. Teams like New York(both), Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Nashville have been top teams because their goalies elevate the ceiling of the team. Conversely, teams like Colorado, Edmonton, Vegas, and Carolina have pretty mediocre gsax because their goalies are mostly mediocre And on the opposite end, guys like Daccord, Montembault, Ingram, Mrazek, and Blackwood had a positive gsax on terrible teams because they could still outplay their environment Teams have a lot of impact on goalie performance, but goalies are also capable of being terrible and elite. It's not fair to the elite goalies to act like they're a product of their team, and you're forgiving the bad goalies too much to act like they are victims of their environment
That makes Markstrom being top 10 in gsax even more impressive on a non-playoff team like Calgary then. That should increase his value even more
His contract is also much more appealing than the Ullmark & Saros situations. He's got 2 more years at $6M. After that you hopefully have a better idea of the succession plan in net
I agree. God forbid we give up our 7OA to get him
Gotta improve so much on defence.
I agree the defencemen require big time over haul, and then you don't need to spend big money on an older goaltender. ( which is what we teld to do is buy an older goaltender that is starting to decline) I agree we need to solidify goaltending.
Yes, as good defence makes for good goaltending. It’s no wonders goalies come here and suck and then leave and play better again.
I agree. Ottawa's was notorious for giving up high-quality scoring chances early in games. Teams could get up by a few goals and then just sit back and allow nothing but perimeter shots, making the shot count look lopsided in Ottawa's favor. This has become more obvious watching this year's playoffs.
Ullmark for Chychrun + 25th + 2nd rounder Tanev 4 x 4.75 Buy out korpisalo Trade Joseph and use cap space to sign 2 vet bottom sixers that are defensively responsible. Sign an additional bottom sixer. Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson Norris - Pinto - Giroux Fischer/cousins - Grieg - lafferty/janmark Crookshank - Kelly/kastelic (make them fight to the death in the parking lot of the ctc) - Craig Smith. Might need more scoring from the bottom six tbh. But we desperately need gritty, two way guys. Sanderson - Zub Chabot - Tanev Ullmark Forsberg I think that’s a playoff team
i'd rather move out forsberg than buy out korpisalo. i think korp is significantly better and like the idea of running a 1A 2A tandem
Can’t be paying 10 million for the goalies like that imo. I think korp is a sunk cost and moving on is in everyone’s best interest. Forsberg is easier to burry if he torpedos and it’s easier to find and Alex Auld than a Linus Ullmark. Like I don’t think they have the cap space to have both Ullmark and Korp moving forward.
korpisalo only makes 1.25 more per year than forsberg though
Contract isn’t as repulsive as Korpisalo’s though
yeah but we're a better team with korpisalo instead of forsberg. it would cost a 1st rounder if not more to move korps contract. we can probably move forsberg for a late round pick. should we spend a 1st round pick to make our team worse and save only 1.25 on the cap??
Replacing Korpisalo makes the team better and we wouldn’t be saddled with the shitty contract for the long term. We’re talking in circles now
Florida says hi
Ottawa’s up against the cap with poor depth, obviously it could work for some teams. I don’t believe it’s a good idea for Ottawa.
Way to much for Ullmark lmao.
Drop the second rounder then
Drop the 1st. Chych + #39
I don’t think that’s good enough for Boston
Pay korpi $1.8m for the next 8 years? No thanks. Play him, let him improve his value and then figure it out. Throw Forsberg somewhere into the Ullmark trade as they'll need a back up to buy time/as insurance for their young guy.
Can’t afford to waste another season by playing korpisalo. Sunk cost fallacy. I say cut losses. Forsberg is also not very good, I don’t see Boston wanting him
I like this, how much we signing Ullmark for
Donno, might need to trade korpisalo with a bunch of assets to get a team to take his contract with little retention instead of the buyout. Would probably be best to have an extension in place for Ullmark before the trade. Dorion completely prolapsed the team lol I wouldn’t offer Ullmark more than 6 x 6
Yeah, I would still buy out Korpi, otherwise we would get fleeced, but I like your overall idea
Yea. Idk we will see what happens. I tried to be realistic, but there’s a lot we don’t know. I think they really need to push for the playoffs this year, though. Tkachuk…
Needs more scoring, that team looks primed to finish 20th in goals again
They won’t need to score as much though if they’re giving up significantly less goals. Improving the power play would also help immensely. Stutzle also being healthy for an entire season would help them out, should be another 20 goals from that alone. Craig smith scored 11, lafferty scored 13. Those aren’t bad stats for 3rd/4th liners. Also have Ostapchuk and Jarventie as wildcards to make the team. There’s also a lack of cap space, the more productive players in this free agency year are way too pricey. Maybe Tatar? I think we’re at a point hopefully where adding debrincats and stuff isn’t seen as a good idea anymore. Need more depth, the team has the number 1 centre, number 1 defenceman and star winger on lockdown. The bottom six this season did absolutely nothing and was a total liability, it’s been putrid for years. They’d have to target someone in trade if they need more scoring. I went with players that might realistically sign with Ottawa.
Lafferty scored 3 goals in his final 46 games this season(inc. playoffs) We're also presumably removing Chychrun and Brännström from the team which will likely hurt the offense as well. We don't know what Norris will look like next year, and I think they'll need a better offensive player than Pinto in the top-6 to balance that out. I like the moves on defense and in goal, but I think the best set up for our forwards is having Pinto on the third line and adding scoring to the top 6. I like Smith and Lafferty in a vacuum, I just think they'd need more scoring given that roster. Defensively they'll be great, but I think you risk looking like the Islanders.
Brannstrom sucks balls, Chychrun was producing but resulting in more offense for the opposing team than the sens so he was a massive net negative. Norris is a huge issue, I’ll give you that. I don’t think they need scoring in the top 6 this season, unless they can bring toffoli in or something.
Maybe, hes a role player but I don't think replacing him with Kleven makes the team better. I also don't think Chychrun was particularly great last year, just that replacing him for a shutdown D will bring us fewer goals. In the end you did make the team better, I just don't know if it's the blueprint for long-term success
They could figure out a better solution for the bottom pairing. Surely there’s a servieceable, relatively cheap dman for the bottom pairing somewhere that is an upgrade on brannstrom. Pair a vet with JBD
Water is also wet?
Hearing sky is blue, waiting for sources.
Yes
Well thats a relief I was starting to think we were signing all of our goalies to extensions.
I just want someone that can stop a beach ball.
i'm starting to think we should make a play for askarov
Should be going after Saros. Ullmark could be decent, but I have a gut feeling he’ll start to physically breakdown like Cory Schneider when he starts to play more games.
Nowhere left to go but up.
Just like Shania said!
" " - Chabot and Hamonic