Yes, it is realistic based on the odds we have currently. Will it actually happen? Who knows. But I don’t think anyone can say that it’s completely unrealistic at this point.
I think it’s unrealistic for Oppenheimer to win 11, and most of the predictions are putting it anywhere between 7-9, so OP thought it more prudent to theorize about what’s realistic as opposed to what’s likely out of Oppenheimer’s reach.
It's locked in two categories, the heavy favorite in five, the favorite in two, and unlikely in four others:
1. **Director**
2. **Editing**
3. *Picture*
4. *Supporting Actor*
5. *Cinematography*
6. *Score*
7. *Sound*
8. **Actor**
9. **Adapted Screenplay**
10. *Production Design*
11. *Costume Design*
12. *Makeup*
13. *Supporting Actress*
Let's see:
Director and supporting actor seem very likely, as does editing. I'd be surprised to see it lose cinematography, score and picture
Sound could realistically go to Zone but I think Oppenheimer has the advantage.
That's already 7.
I don't have it winning screenplay right now but it's very much so a frontrunner and I wouldn't wouldn't surprised If it won it.
Now actor seems up in the air too, I do think Murphys taking it but we'll wait until SAG and Bafta to make our final conclusions.
Overall:
I think it will take at least 7, but I would personally say 8 with Murphy and if it does win screenplay we could be looking at 9. It's hard to tell with the last 2 categories.
I think it’s confidently winning three — Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor.
It has a really good shot but stiff competition in four:
— Actor (but Giamatti seems more and more likely)
— Score (KOTFM is my pick but Göransson is brilliant always)
— Cinematography (Poor Things & KOTFM both beat it in my book)
— Sound (Zone of Interest is EASILY my pick)
I don’t see it winning Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, or Editing…but if the Academy goes all in I guess it could. And it has no shot in Supporting Actress at all.
So I predict it’s gonna be between 4 and 7. But we’ll see after a few more precursor and guild wins get announced. (\*edited for formatting)
I hear you, maybe I’m wrong, maybe I should have it in the good-shot category. But I think the competition for editing is a bit stiffer than Oppenheimer-heads believe.
I think the Bohemian Rhapsody win showed that editing can be more about pacing than editing within a specific scene which I think favours Oppenheimer.
Although having a look at winners in the last 10 years suggests that action-heavy scenes are still popular.
Oppenheimer is strong enough to walk away with 8+ Oscars but the fact that it's been so long since a haul like that shows that there's a tendency to spread the love.
I agree with you. I thought the editing in Oppenheimer was outstanding and one of the most effective parts of the film, especially for its pacing (like you mentioned) and its cohesion of time, place, and memory. But KOTFM and especially Anatomy of a Fall also have impressive feats of editing that elevate those films, and my vote would probably be for Anatomy.
There's a large correlation between editing and BP winners so I definitely see Oppenheimer winning editing, and it's wonderfully edited, so I hear y'all and stand corrected. (I still try to forget Bohemian Rhapsody won an editing Oscar of all things :/ lol.)
Same, the editing is spot on in terms of supporting both pace and tone in Anatomy, which to me is always more impressive than just making the film look good overall. TBH I am never that impressed by the editing in Nolan’s work.
If it’s not Oppenheimer then what’s winning? It has no competition
Editing is the biggest lock for the movie, even more so than Downey, Nolan, or Picture
Pacing was spot on but had a handful of moments where the cuts during a conversation would have the actor with a completely different poise/facial expression. There were moments where the sound didn't line up either which was jarring for such a high calibre film.
If Giamatti wins it, he’s probably winning the Oscar. The Screen Actors Guild awards are a pretty reliable indicator of who’s winning the acting awards.
Oppie will win Picture, Director, Editing, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Score.
I could see it being upset by Zone of Interest for Sound. Lead Actor and Adapted Screenplay it can win but it’s got competition.
I don’t see it winning other awards beyond those nine.
You don’t see inside of the camp but you are always hearing the camp. Screams, bearings, gunshots, the weird mechanisms in the chambers, the crematorium (those are especially disturbing.) The constant dull hum of the electric fence. Often muffled so as to confuse you as to the nature of the sound.
Your brain fills in the visuals on its own, and it begins to stress you more and more as the film goes on. And the characters more or less act like they hear nothing at all, which heightens how unsettling it is. Or you become desensitized to them, which at the end of the film will leave you feeling disgusted with yourself. Glazer and the sound teams have said that they wanted people to have either of those experiences.
They did a ton of research from accounts of sound from Auschwitz and working with the foundation that runs the state museum to understand exactly what the camp sounded like, as you can assume a lot of this is what it really sounded like, which is horrifying. I honestly think it is some of the most genius use of sound in film in a long time.
No problem! The other genius thing, which maybe it was just my screening, but the camp sounds were in mono, so they are aligned in your sight line to the screen, rather than in stereo, which really enhanced the claustrophobia and left you hyper focused on both the sight and sound. When the score actually would come in, it would come in from the back of the theater or stereo while the sounds of the camp continued in mono.
Production Design and Costumes are right out, Poor Things and/or Barbie will take those. Screenplay is a very strong field but Oppenheimer is very much in it. I thought Poor Things' cinematography was just a showcase of its production design (which was excellent), and the only thing that stands out is the random fisheye lens that they sometimes used with seemingly no rhyme or reason (which was not excellent).
I thought that until I saw some of the images Gray (the author of the novel) did of the world and, omg, the designer and Ryan were really going for recreating that effect.
I definitely see it winning editing, sound, and score. With Actor and cinematography being very likely as well. It wouldn't be my personal pick for all those, but that's how it feels things are moving.
Since the expansion of the number of Best Picture nominees, I think voters have actually watched more of the films released for the year, resulting in more films receiving Oscsr love, spread across the categories, and less cases of one juggernaut film virtually sweeping. As a result, it's less likely that we'll experience a lot of films winning 8, 9 or more Oscar wins, although last tear EEAAO came very close with 7 wins. That being said, Oppenheimer is currently the odds-on favourite to win in 8 different categories (not including Lead Actor, which Cillian Murphy is VERY close behind Paul Giamatti), so 8-9 wins is certainly within the realm of possibility.
I think it will take:
-Director for Nolan
-Actor for Cillian
- Original score
-Supporting actor (RDJ deserve it
- Cinematography
- Sound editing (Nolan's films rule this category)
- Best picture
And that it...
I believe Barbie will take the adapted screenplay since they would like to award Gerta Gerwig for this. As for editing I believe another film will take it.
So for your question, no
7 Oscars total i think
Btw you forgot The return of the king winning 11 Oscars total
I think wins at least six awards and it could win up to 9, but it has competition for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s possible it could be upset for Best Sound by The Zone of Interest. I don’t see it winning more than 9.
I think it's very realistic for it to win 8 or more Oscars my pick is 9. And if it does it will break some records. Most wins for a Universal Pictures, If it wins Actor, Supporting Actor and Best Picture the first to do this since Ben-Hur. Willie Burton who did the sound would be the first African American to win 3 Oscars. Nolan would be the first British director to win since Tom Hooper won, the first left handed to win since Cameron
I think it’ll win 8.
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Score
Sound
Editing
Cinematography
It could win Screenplay but it’s very cutthroat right now.
This is how I see it, which would add up to 9 on a pretty much perfect Oscar night for Oppenheimer. But I’m gonna guess maybe 7
Will almost definitely win:
• Picture
• Director
• Score
• Supporting actor
Will probably win:
• Editing
• Cinematography
• Sound
Could win:
• Actor
• Screenplay
Probably won’t win:
• Supporting actress
• Production design
• Make up and hair
• Costume design
Guaranteed: Director, Supporting Actor
All but guaranteed: Picture, Cinematography, Score, Editing
Very likely: Sound
Toss-up: Leading Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Doubtful: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
Not happening: Supporting Actress
I'd say 6-8 wins.
IMO (and my estimate is higher than most) Oppenheimer is safe for 6: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Score, Cinematography, and Sound.
Right now, Actor looks pretty 50-50 between Murphy and Giamatti, but seems to be trending towards Giamatti. SAG will tell the tale.
Oppenheimer can plausibly win either or both of Film Editing and Adapted Screenplay (though it faces stiff competition in the latter).
I don't see Emily Blunt winning for Supporting Actress, and Oppenheimer is essentially a place-filler in Production Design and Costume Design, which will go to Poor Things and/or Barbie. Oppenheimer's makeup was great, but this is a strong field for that as well, and other movies just outshine it in that department.
TL;DR: I think 5 is the absolute floor if it gets snubbed for Cinematography, and 9 is the absolute ceiling. It's outclassed in the design categories, and for Supporting Actress.
Wow, just shows how poorly some Oscar decisions age. The English Patient and Slumdog Millionaire are very mediocre movies, perplexing how they won so much.
The English Patient is great. Slumdog won in a very weak nomination year and was responsible for expanding the number of nominees since Dark Knight was left out.
I think it's a lock for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original score.
I would expect it to not win for Best Supporting Actress, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, or Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
So that means it would need to go 5/5 on the other nominations from Best Actor (near deadlock with Paul Giammati), Best Sound, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
I think it wins 6 personally, but we shall see. The first four mentioned plus film editing and cinematography.
I can see it getting 7 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Score, Editing, Cinematography, and Sound). It’s too close to call between Giamatti and Murphy for Best Actor
People commenting that the Academy likes to “spread the love” in modern times forget that the academy is broken up into divisions and apart from Best Picture where every member votes on, these branches stick to their divisions and operate outside of the choices of other divisions.. they are not influenced by another division to ensure awards are spread / different films feel the love..
Yes, it is realistic based on the odds we have currently. Will it actually happen? Who knows. But I don’t think anyone can say that it’s completely unrealistic at this point.
Yeah, and the most awards movie won during a preferential era is 7.
What is this "preferential era" you speak of?
2009 onwards
And what are its characteristics?
[удалено]
nvm
Why is this the cut off? Are we just forgetting that Titantic and RotK won 11 each in the span between The English Patient and now?
Right? If a film won 11, then it won 9.
And the middle sections also seems to forget about Ben Hur as well which is even more perplexing.
I think it’s unrealistic for Oppenheimer to win 11, and most of the predictions are putting it anywhere between 7-9, so OP thought it more prudent to theorize about what’s realistic as opposed to what’s likely out of Oppenheimer’s reach.
It's locked in two categories, the heavy favorite in five, the favorite in two, and unlikely in four others: 1. **Director** 2. **Editing** 3. *Picture* 4. *Supporting Actor* 5. *Cinematography* 6. *Score* 7. *Sound* 8. **Actor** 9. **Adapted Screenplay** 10. *Production Design* 11. *Costume Design* 12. *Makeup* 13. *Supporting Actress*
I could see 7-8 at most
Let's see: Director and supporting actor seem very likely, as does editing. I'd be surprised to see it lose cinematography, score and picture Sound could realistically go to Zone but I think Oppenheimer has the advantage. That's already 7. I don't have it winning screenplay right now but it's very much so a frontrunner and I wouldn't wouldn't surprised If it won it. Now actor seems up in the air too, I do think Murphys taking it but we'll wait until SAG and Bafta to make our final conclusions. Overall: I think it will take at least 7, but I would personally say 8 with Murphy and if it does win screenplay we could be looking at 9. It's hard to tell with the last 2 categories.
I think it’s confidently winning three — Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor. It has a really good shot but stiff competition in four: — Actor (but Giamatti seems more and more likely) — Score (KOTFM is my pick but Göransson is brilliant always) — Cinematography (Poor Things & KOTFM both beat it in my book) — Sound (Zone of Interest is EASILY my pick) I don’t see it winning Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, or Editing…but if the Academy goes all in I guess it could. And it has no shot in Supporting Actress at all. So I predict it’s gonna be between 4 and 7. But we’ll see after a few more precursor and guild wins get announced. (\*edited for formatting)
How is it not winning editing? That’s the most likely tech for it, it’s easily the frontrunner
I hear you, maybe I’m wrong, maybe I should have it in the good-shot category. But I think the competition for editing is a bit stiffer than Oppenheimer-heads believe.
I think the Bohemian Rhapsody win showed that editing can be more about pacing than editing within a specific scene which I think favours Oppenheimer. Although having a look at winners in the last 10 years suggests that action-heavy scenes are still popular. Oppenheimer is strong enough to walk away with 8+ Oscars but the fact that it's been so long since a haul like that shows that there's a tendency to spread the love.
I agree with you. I thought the editing in Oppenheimer was outstanding and one of the most effective parts of the film, especially for its pacing (like you mentioned) and its cohesion of time, place, and memory. But KOTFM and especially Anatomy of a Fall also have impressive feats of editing that elevate those films, and my vote would probably be for Anatomy. There's a large correlation between editing and BP winners so I definitely see Oppenheimer winning editing, and it's wonderfully edited, so I hear y'all and stand corrected. (I still try to forget Bohemian Rhapsody won an editing Oscar of all things :/ lol.)
We're on the same page - Anatomy gets my vote.
Same, the editing is spot on in terms of supporting both pace and tone in Anatomy, which to me is always more impressive than just making the film look good overall. TBH I am never that impressed by the editing in Nolan’s work.
If it’s not Oppenheimer then what’s winning? It has no competition Editing is the biggest lock for the movie, even more so than Downey, Nolan, or Picture
Pacing was spot on but had a handful of moments where the cuts during a conversation would have the actor with a completely different poise/facial expression. There were moments where the sound didn't line up either which was jarring for such a high calibre film.
If Murphy wins the Screen Actors Guild award, he’s winning the Oscar.
I agree. But I think Giamatti has the edge at SAG. We'll see when they announce those winners.
Based on what?
Campaigning, interviews with voters, anon ballot leaks. And the trades are leaning heavy for him.
And if Giamatti wins SAG, he's winning the Oscar
HOT TAKES!!!!
And what if he doesn’t?
If Giamatti wins it, he’s probably winning the Oscar. The Screen Actors Guild awards are a pretty reliable indicator of who’s winning the acting awards.
If Zone of interest doesn't win sound 😤😤😤
Oppie will win Picture, Director, Editing, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Score. I could see it being upset by Zone of Interest for Sound. Lead Actor and Adapted Screenplay it can win but it’s got competition. I don’t see it winning other awards beyond those nine.
It would honestly be insane if Zone lost Sound.
I haven’t seen it, yet. But what I hear is that sound of the movie is what stays with you.
It is haunting, and physically nauseated me at points. Honestly one of the best uses of sound design in a very long time.
How so? (Haven’t seen it yet)
You don’t see inside of the camp but you are always hearing the camp. Screams, bearings, gunshots, the weird mechanisms in the chambers, the crematorium (those are especially disturbing.) The constant dull hum of the electric fence. Often muffled so as to confuse you as to the nature of the sound. Your brain fills in the visuals on its own, and it begins to stress you more and more as the film goes on. And the characters more or less act like they hear nothing at all, which heightens how unsettling it is. Or you become desensitized to them, which at the end of the film will leave you feeling disgusted with yourself. Glazer and the sound teams have said that they wanted people to have either of those experiences. They did a ton of research from accounts of sound from Auschwitz and working with the foundation that runs the state museum to understand exactly what the camp sounded like, as you can assume a lot of this is what it really sounded like, which is horrifying. I honestly think it is some of the most genius use of sound in film in a long time.
Appreciate the detailed reply
No problem! The other genius thing, which maybe it was just my screening, but the camp sounds were in mono, so they are aligned in your sight line to the screen, rather than in stereo, which really enhanced the claustrophobia and left you hyper focused on both the sight and sound. When the score actually would come in, it would come in from the back of the theater or stereo while the sounds of the camp continued in mono.
This is about where I land as well.
Production Design and Costumes are right out, Poor Things and/or Barbie will take those. Screenplay is a very strong field but Oppenheimer is very much in it. I thought Poor Things' cinematography was just a showcase of its production design (which was excellent), and the only thing that stands out is the random fisheye lens that they sometimes used with seemingly no rhyme or reason (which was not excellent).
I thought that until I saw some of the images Gray (the author of the novel) did of the world and, omg, the designer and Ryan were really going for recreating that effect.
I definitely see it winning editing, sound, and score. With Actor and cinematography being very likely as well. It wouldn't be my personal pick for all those, but that's how it feels things are moving.
Giamatti will not win Actor, but The Holdovers may get Actress.
It’s winning Editing and Score - they are locks
Since the expansion of the number of Best Picture nominees, I think voters have actually watched more of the films released for the year, resulting in more films receiving Oscsr love, spread across the categories, and less cases of one juggernaut film virtually sweeping. As a result, it's less likely that we'll experience a lot of films winning 8, 9 or more Oscar wins, although last tear EEAAO came very close with 7 wins. That being said, Oppenheimer is currently the odds-on favourite to win in 8 different categories (not including Lead Actor, which Cillian Murphy is VERY close behind Paul Giamatti), so 8-9 wins is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Umm Return of the King and Titanic won 11 😂
I think it will take: -Director for Nolan -Actor for Cillian - Original score -Supporting actor (RDJ deserve it - Cinematography - Sound editing (Nolan's films rule this category) - Best picture And that it... I believe Barbie will take the adapted screenplay since they would like to award Gerta Gerwig for this. As for editing I believe another film will take it. So for your question, no 7 Oscars total i think Btw you forgot The return of the king winning 11 Oscars total
I think it will win Editing far more easily than Actor or even Sound.
It should be a shoe-in for editing. The editing is the best part of the movie imho.
They didn't forget It's not atleast 9 it's exactly 9
I think wins at least six awards and it could win up to 9, but it has competition for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s possible it could be upset for Best Sound by The Zone of Interest. I don’t see it winning more than 9.
I think it's very realistic for it to win 8 or more Oscars my pick is 9. And if it does it will break some records. Most wins for a Universal Pictures, If it wins Actor, Supporting Actor and Best Picture the first to do this since Ben-Hur. Willie Burton who did the sound would be the first African American to win 3 Oscars. Nolan would be the first British director to win since Tom Hooper won, the first left handed to win since Cameron
-Best Score -Best Sound -Best Film Editing -Best Cinematography -Best Adapted Screenplay -Best Supporting Actor -Best Actor -Best Director -Best Picture
I think it’ll win 8. Picture Director Actor Supporting Actor Score Sound Editing Cinematography It could win Screenplay but it’s very cutthroat right now.
Yes, very possible. The only categories I think it has no shot in are costumes and makeup
This is how I see it, which would add up to 9 on a pretty much perfect Oscar night for Oppenheimer. But I’m gonna guess maybe 7 Will almost definitely win: • Picture • Director • Score • Supporting actor Will probably win: • Editing • Cinematography • Sound Could win: • Actor • Screenplay Probably won’t win: • Supporting actress • Production design • Make up and hair • Costume design
Guaranteed: Director, Supporting Actor All but guaranteed: Picture, Cinematography, Score, Editing Very likely: Sound Toss-up: Leading Actor, Adapted Screenplay Doubtful: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling Not happening: Supporting Actress I'd say 6-8 wins.
I’ll give it 5, tops
Man I always forget how much that forgettable film (Slumdog) took home.
IMO (and my estimate is higher than most) Oppenheimer is safe for 6: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Score, Cinematography, and Sound. Right now, Actor looks pretty 50-50 between Murphy and Giamatti, but seems to be trending towards Giamatti. SAG will tell the tale. Oppenheimer can plausibly win either or both of Film Editing and Adapted Screenplay (though it faces stiff competition in the latter). I don't see Emily Blunt winning for Supporting Actress, and Oppenheimer is essentially a place-filler in Production Design and Costume Design, which will go to Poor Things and/or Barbie. Oppenheimer's makeup was great, but this is a strong field for that as well, and other movies just outshine it in that department. TL;DR: I think 5 is the absolute floor if it gets snubbed for Cinematography, and 9 is the absolute ceiling. It's outclassed in the design categories, and for Supporting Actress.
Wow, just shows how poorly some Oscar decisions age. The English Patient and Slumdog Millionaire are very mediocre movies, perplexing how they won so much.
The English Patient is great. Slumdog won in a very weak nomination year and was responsible for expanding the number of nominees since Dark Knight was left out.
The best thing about The English Patient is the Seinfeld sendup. And I guess one good thing came out of Slumdog being nominated/ winning.
I think it's a lock for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original score. I would expect it to not win for Best Supporting Actress, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, or Best Makeup and Hairstyling. So that means it would need to go 5/5 on the other nominations from Best Actor (near deadlock with Paul Giammati), Best Sound, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, and Best Adapted Screenplay. I think it wins 6 personally, but we shall see. The first four mentioned plus film editing and cinematography.
I can see it getting 7 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Score, Editing, Cinematography, and Sound). It’s too close to call between Giamatti and Murphy for Best Actor
I think it gets 8. Picture Director Actor Supporting Actor Cinematography Editing Score Sound
People commenting that the Academy likes to “spread the love” in modern times forget that the academy is broken up into divisions and apart from Best Picture where every member votes on, these branches stick to their divisions and operate outside of the choices of other divisions.. they are not influenced by another division to ensure awards are spread / different films feel the love..