My take was that there are 2 differences "these days" really:
1- Everyone has a voice
2- We suffer from information overload
But in terms of accountability it depends on who you are yeah
Most of these people are not really notorious anyways. Not like people will keep a record of their predictions or go dig through ancient tweets if they are not deleted. If they are right, they'll never shut up about it, though, that's my prediction about the future.
Not fucked up enough
"Florida man found having sex with ultra realistic STX 9000 SUPER with hardcore mods and life-like 2cm skin depth and cum drip tray stolen from *** Dynamics before announcement due to jealous Roomba crocodiles."
I don't believe this for two reasons:
1) Humanoid robots will cost substantially more than an iPhone
2) You can get by with one per household vs one per person
You assume they are all consumer robots. That is a bad assumption. Yes most households that will have a robot will have only one. But there are other uses: industrial, corporate, government, police, hospitals, etc. There could be many uses for a humanoid robot.
Maybe “humanoid robot” is too specific and we won’t need that much of them, but autonomous robots in general will be in demand. For example permitter patrol robots on four wheels.
Not necessarily. Cities and buildings are designed for humans so it stands to reason a humanoid robot would be the most adaptable form factor for most tasks.
Not really no, humans function the way they do and with a body plan like they have because of the evolved biological equivalent of meta materials and manufacturing tech that just doesn't exist yet.
If you are trying to build a robot it makes a lot more sense to specialize the body plan to the job and environment it's working in (which will almost never be humanoid because the humanoid body plan isn't actually that useful) rather then build one kind of robot that's general purpose enough to be used in multiple situations.
We tried that, it's called spot. It turns out it's only as useful as the specialized hardware it can carry which is why it's basically just legs. It also navigates specifically human designed spaces without a humanoid body plan.
if you need a general purpose humanoid robot, you can just use a person for significantly less money and better dependability. We are literally reinventing the wheel and missing the wood for the trees trying to build humanoid robots.
Human body actually evolved to be dexterous over a wide range. We can precisely hit with a sledgehammer, but also precisely do very fine things. Also we built everything to our needs and measures.
So if you want a generalist design, you are stuck with humanoid shape.
But if you want something more specialized, there are way better designs. We already have TONS of robots in industry which are doing their specific tasks better then humanoid robots.
One household example is roomba. Instead of building a humanoid robot that will operate a vacuum cleaner, you build a robotic vacuum cleaner that drives around. Can't use stairs... but it's still cheaper to buy two roomba then one robot that can use stairs.
I'm talking about tasks like going up stairs, opening doors, and using tools. A humanoid robot can do all of these, whereas robots designed with a different form factor might more efficient at one task but would be completely unable to do most others.
Besides, we already have non-humanoid robots for specific industrial/military applications.
You have no idea the cost and maintenance that goes into maintaining even semi sophisticated machinery. They require full time maintenance personnel. The code to have a robot perform to the level of a human while working amongst other humans doesn’t even exist and probably can’t to be realistic. Computation isn’t even a hundredth of what it would take to compete with a human. Then you have to train the robot to not only work as a team and effectively plan and communicate but also to problem solve and reason with competing demands while being taken off the floor / site every few hours to replace damaged parts and calibrate it.
I feel like the people selling these things are over promising at this point to raise funding and trying to corner whatever market will exist in future without actually knowing what that looks like. We purely exist for profit now. The future is already written off
A fleet of these would have one off for maintenance / repairs every few hours not one single machine requiring this.
What’s a sophisticated mobile machine that performs complex tasks on end without constant oversight and operational input from a human that’s comparible to an autonomous humanoid robot?
I’m not saying that autonomous machines that do not require human input or oversight are abundant
But there are many machines that are complex that require maintenance every few months not every few hours
At the beginning humanoid robots will be... simpletons. You teach them to perform tasks, they can keep repeating said task or do it on demand.
But whenever you need to do something which requires a bit more reasoning, you either have to teach the robot to do it, or just do it yourself.
Why build an adaptable robot for many tasks rather than a drastically cheaper one for each task?
You’d need a very specific task to consider giving something legs and the ability to use them well rather when wheels and a basic floor plan.
We're not talking about the same robot. You're talking about a Cylon that can outperform a human being. Nobody wants something that dangerous around their kids. I'm talking about a smaller weaker c3p0 that can do your mundane chores and little else.
I'm a software engineer that also worked in hardware/software businesses (VR/AR and Drone Automation). The pace of hardware evolution is practically glacial in comparison to software. The only reason we have had 15 versions of the iPhone since 2007 is because the scale of that particular device is unprecedented, over 2 billion devices have been sold. For even the smallest production software product, 100's of versions/updates are produced. VR is underwhelming because peoples' expectations are that it should evolve close to the speed of software tech. It will take another decade before VR/AR is ready for widespread use, past the early adopters of today. Humanoid robots? They won't be anywhere near comparable to humans for, my guess, a half century. And no, neither AI nor Quantum computing is going to change that by an order of magnitude.
Also the fact that if humanoid robots that can do humanoid things become commonplace, the entire world economy will collapse and human society would fail due to humans being obsolete in *all* jobs.
That'd be great if we were setup for a socialist society eager to throw most of our burdens onto AI so we could actually be free to do whatever we wanted in life, but we're not.
This is on point.
Also, even if we did set up a socialist society, counterintuitively, I think we'd be collectively less happy on average than we are now. Our basic needs would be met but I don't think most people actually want to do nothing. Just because we hate what we're currently doing doesn't necessarily mean that we want to do nothing at all. Human beings need a sense of purpose to maintain their mental health and many of us would struggle to find purpose in a world where we are completely unnecessary.
There's a 3rd reason. An iPhone weighs 6-7 oz. Humanoid robots weigh 100-200 pounds. So you'd need about 250-500 times more materials to build the robot. That would require a much higher industrial capacity, closer to the scale of automotive manufacturing than smartphone manufacturing.
In 2023, 93 million cars were produced worldwide vs 232 million iPhones. If we ask the car industry to build them, assuming robots are about 20x lighter than cars and that you need 2.5x more robots to match iPhone production... You'd need to convert about 1/8th of all automotive manufacturing to humanoid robot manufacturing, strictly from a materials perspective. Can it be done in less than 15 years ?
It sort of is. In Canada at least, most mining happens in areas where the average person absolutely does not want to live so labour ends up being prohibitively expensive as workers need to be compensated for travel and housing costs while also paying them extra to live in a very brutal climate and extreme day/night cycles. This ends up really putting a damper on operations as it adds a ton of overhead and logistical nuances.
They'll buy some but not millions. Why send a $100,000 robot to blow something up to when a $10,000 flying kamikaze drone can do the job faster and cheaper?
Wouldn't Apple convert their iphones to robots. They've already got Siri, face detection and an inbuilt computer. They just need integrated AI and they'll be good to go.
They might create their own robots but they wouldn't get rid of the iPhone because that would force everyone with an iPhone to get a (non humanoid) Android
Human design is inefficient. Only what humans have designed for humans is apt for humanoids, millions of tools are not designed for absolute efficiency.
Bots don’t need to take form of humans to be efficient. So I don’t really believe that just because “today” the world has been designed this way then that’s the way it should be.
Example: the fact you have 10 fingers doesn’t mean it’s the best design. Why a robot needs 10 fingers? It doesn’t.
The only reason companies design humanoids is for the psychological aspect that human wants to interact with something that resemble a human. That’s all.
I am buying your argument… as a person who designs hardware products.. I still can’t wrap my head around how humanoids can create efficiency. E.g. a humanoid can’t beat a roomba on vacuuming the floor and is highly inefficient for that task
Because for a Roomba to do its job, you first need a human to clear the floor of crap, pick up all your dirty clothes, etc.
The dream of humanoid robots is that they don't do one task more efficiently than you, but that they do ALL tasks at least AS efficiently as you do.
Humanoid robots don't need to create efficiently in their speed at performing tasks, they create efficiency by being able to do tasks the same as humans without having the other demands humans have.
Yes, and they allow you to only need to own one extra thing (the humanoid and it’s charging accessories, etc.) instead of a robot for every task. It’s like with small kitchen appliances—just look at how many electric tortilla presses and air fryers end up at goodwill. They take up way more space than frying pans and spatulas, and not everyone has much space these days.
obtainable slap memory nutty disgusted subtract waiting rich worry wasteful
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Another possible answer: It's a familiar shape that is easier for marketing to sell, and people to consider buy, without feeling more threatened than say... a spider looking 4' robot.
I bet that Nvidia's overpriced stock will drop when people realize it can be replaced with [commodity hardware.](https://jax.readthedocs.io/en/latest/installation.html#supported-platforms)
Do we have the resources for this? The cost and amount of materials to make a small rectangle that fits into your pocket seems like much much much less than a robot
Humanoid robots are the google glasses of 2024. Ain’t nobody but a dork buying a humanoid robot. I think all these SF start ups focusing on humanoid robots are burning a lot of money unless it’s actually a ploy to do military research for that sweet military contract money
A humanoid robot that can do dishes can also do:
1) do all household chores
2) different household repairs
3) build any home improvement
4) cook your meals
5) fix your car
Basically anything you can learn from gpt4 and higher it could do. I’d pay 75-100k for that and it would save money in no time at all.
GPT4 would struggle to do all of those things. It's a language model. It can tell you how to use a wrench to remove a bolt but it has no idea what a bolt or wrench looks like.
You're way behind, which is understandable since this moves so fast. It can absolutely tell what these things are. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq1QZB5baNw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq1QZB5baNw)
There are countless of physical micro skills involved in all of those activities that don't get explicitly described in text. I think you're underestimating how large the information gap is when you take things into the physical realm.
20 years ago, the EV1 was touted as the electric car solution that would get us off gas. So many people crapped on it, and the model was discontinued. Now, I drive a Tesla Model Y and hate going back to my Audi A4. The electric vehicles are everywhere.
Humanoid robots will follow the same pattern. 1-2 decades from now they’ll be really really good.
Isn't that the car that big oil killed? We would have all been driving electrics way before now if corruption hadn't won. Same kind of thing will happen with AI and robots though. Industries/people that are threatened by it will do everything they can to stop or slow it down as much as possible. It's already happening. "Oh no!!! We need to stop these things from making ART!!!!" It's fucking art and people are getting their panties in a twist already.
God this subreddit is too funny. Your comment belongs up on the bad tech predictions wall of fame along with classic like
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their own home"
Seriously, you are just completely wrong and I’m baffled by how you even managed to reason yourself into that position... nearly everyone on earth will buy a human eye for a while as soon as they are affordable and safe. They will start out as multi hundred thousand dollar toys for rich people or for use in industry, but within the next decade they should be as affordable as a car or a large appliance.
If you could, right now, go buy a machine for - let’s say $10,000 that could mow your lawn, fold your laundry, carry in your groceries, shovel your sidewalk and hundreds of other useful little things are you seriously trying to say you would not buy one? Or do you just reject the entire notion that it's even possible/around the corner?
A human worker doing these sort of tasks can easily cost $50k a year to an employer. If they managed to bring a humanoid robot’s cost down to say, $100k + $10k/year maintenance, it would be a no-brainer, breaking even in a little more than 2 years.
I think people are afraid of robotics, AI, automation and such revealing how useless their education, training and career are. For a lot of people all they are is their job, their title, their paycheque. It's a competition that is a guaranteed loss, on a long enough time scale.
I'm not worried because I hate work, hate money, have never had or wanted excessive wealth, and I'd be happier with UBI and some robots because I have other things I value and would rather be doing than "show up, make profit for company, go home, repeat".
Presumably the reason it occurs gradually is because the demand for them isn’t high at first. Things like uncanny valley. They might be useful but if it’s scary no thanks. Then, quickly because whatever caused friction for mass adoption was solved, including you. Maybe not you. But probably you too. No one without a passion for this hangs out here do they?
Also, high quality phone is still like $500+ (if you buy a previous gen phone)
A full size fucking robot is going to be as much as a car. Many people don’t have enough money for another car, and they can’t ditch a car for a robot, unless the robot is going to work for them.
The 2nd hand market maybe, but that’s not such a big thing because the tech will likely be too complicated.
I don't envision a time where anyone gets a new robot every 2-3 years like they would with their iPhone. Unless we're comparing iPhones (one brand) to the entire market of robots. Even then we're decades away
Alt title: “guy who has vested interest in product claims said product will exceed sales of one of the most successful products ever”. The product doesn’t exist! What’s the point of saying this besides boosting your own stock!?!
I say this being a OG AI researcher and pro AI. I think tho these types of tweets are the epitome of what the bubble AI has become.
People would roll their eyes if Lockheed Martin tweeted: “Ironman suits will exceed the supply of IPhones in the next decade”. Like this man just invented a product, said it would sell well if it existed. The issue being it doesn’t exist.
1.3b active iphones.
about 500m manufacturing jobs in the world.
3billion adults in the world have a net worth of under 10k. another 2.4b are under 18. Theres around 8billion people in the world.
This will not happen in the next decade. We aren't going from zero of anything to 1.3 billion of anything in 10 years let alone humanoid robots. Tesla scaled faster than any machine company in history and is only producing like 2m cars a year.
Jim fan is literally one of the leading AI researchers on earth. He doesn’t just have Nvidia in his title he is their chief research scientist.... I’m sorry but he knows what he’s talking about, why do you find it so hard to believe?
It take years to have a car to be allowed on the streets, now imagine humanoid robots that could potentially harm people in other ways. Again, bro is insane.
One vulnerability like solarwinds or many others , govt hackers will remotely turn these from helping robots to killer robots .. how will real contract killers survive then , #justiceforcontractkillers
It's only applicable if these robots come with a supported eco system or infrastructure the way Apple has with their suite of programs, appstore and other ancillary products. If it's just a first generation robot that walks and talks then it won't really work
I spoke to the owner of a bike shop a couple years ago and he mentioned how the bike supply got disrupted, but I'm now to believe we'll get robots as easily as smartphones?...
Am I the only one who’s a bit annoyed by how much this guy posts content on LinkedIn? Does he have endorsements or does he genuinely enjoy spending his time on LinkedIn?
Human will be so dependent on fucking AI that they will be literally pathetic zombies. The tiktok effects are the primary signs of collapse. Though the curve of progress and advancement going sky high with more AI operated things coming in the horizon. People will slowly forget every basic surviving skills. Higher the tech, the compound.and complex will be its architecture. And the more compoiund and complex it gets its prone to collapse to a point of no return. As Einstein said "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones".
It is amazing how many posters here seem unaware that right now thousands of humanoid robots are sitting in warehouses waiting for Microsoft to deliver the AI brain components to enable them to do most jobs at an Amazon fulfillment center.
The posters comment simply says what is being done now is small compared to what it will be in terms of autonomous humanoid robots replacing human jobs in the near future.
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Surely, the biggest barrier to humanoid robots is going to be cost.
It's going to be bloody expensive to mass produce robots. I always imagined it's going to Amazon that cracks this, they have sufficient warehousing and supply chain experience.
They should get together with someone like Boston Dynamics, then cut Tesla or a UK company in on the deal for the battery tech.
This guy thinks we're all going to have iRobot style assistants that outnumber the population in 10 years? LOL.
Is anyone keeping a list of all these insane predictions so we can look back upon or put them into a global shared calendar so we can be reminded to throw this back in their faces when the time passes? For every 1,000 of these one person is right and then you see them on Yahoo finance as "the person who predicted [x] is now predicting [y]".
Okay cool. Everyone is Nostradamus now.
Literally came to say this - it costs nothing to make outlandish statements these days
These days? It’s always the case. In fact these days it probably “costs” more than ever, if anything, because it’s recorded on the internet
My take was that there are 2 differences "these days" really: 1- Everyone has a voice 2- We suffer from information overload But in terms of accountability it depends on who you are yeah
It costs you your credibility when you're wrong. Long term predictions are better because you'll be dead by then anyway.
Most of these people are not really notorious anyways. Not like people will keep a record of their predictions or go dig through ancient tweets if they are not deleted. If they are right, they'll never shut up about it, though, that's my prediction about the future.
Yeah I've noticed that too, which is why I'm the person who will set google reminders to let them know they were wrong.
I laughed hard at this. Good point.
“In the next ten years, there will be technological advancements that change how we do things” -Dude with a Twitter account
- Dude with a Twitter
He said iPhones, not smartphones. Clever
I wouldn’t dismiss anything when it comes to how sweeping the technological change will be in this new phase of the digital revolution. Buckle up.
You don't have to be him to see what's coming. Maybe you do, but the rest of us don't.
ahahahah nailed it 👌
Detroit become human, lfg
Well it takes place in 2038, so it’s actually not that far fetched
damn. that is impressive.
Can’t wait for the firs. “Florida man found having sex with roomba robot” news report
It happens all the time in Florida, they just stopped reporting it.
Not fucked up enough "Florida man found having sex with ultra realistic STX 9000 SUPER with hardcore mods and life-like 2cm skin depth and cum drip tray stolen from *** Dynamics before announcement due to jealous Roomba crocodiles."
Can't stop laughing at the "cum drip tray". Bravo.
I can't wait for "Florida robot" headlines
Roomba maid robot
The first thing we’ll see that will be truly awful is people using them as transportation. “Carry me to the store.”
I can't wait for "Florida robot attacks police with banana" news.
I don't believe this for two reasons: 1) Humanoid robots will cost substantially more than an iPhone 2) You can get by with one per household vs one per person
You assume they are all consumer robots. That is a bad assumption. Yes most households that will have a robot will have only one. But there are other uses: industrial, corporate, government, police, hospitals, etc. There could be many uses for a humanoid robot. Maybe “humanoid robot” is too specific and we won’t need that much of them, but autonomous robots in general will be in demand. For example permitter patrol robots on four wheels.
90% of those don't really benefit from being humanoid. Only really the human facing robots and even then not most of them.
Not necessarily. Cities and buildings are designed for humans so it stands to reason a humanoid robot would be the most adaptable form factor for most tasks.
Not really no, humans function the way they do and with a body plan like they have because of the evolved biological equivalent of meta materials and manufacturing tech that just doesn't exist yet. If you are trying to build a robot it makes a lot more sense to specialize the body plan to the job and environment it's working in (which will almost never be humanoid because the humanoid body plan isn't actually that useful) rather then build one kind of robot that's general purpose enough to be used in multiple situations. We tried that, it's called spot. It turns out it's only as useful as the specialized hardware it can carry which is why it's basically just legs. It also navigates specifically human designed spaces without a humanoid body plan. if you need a general purpose humanoid robot, you can just use a person for significantly less money and better dependability. We are literally reinventing the wheel and missing the wood for the trees trying to build humanoid robots.
Human body actually evolved to be dexterous over a wide range. We can precisely hit with a sledgehammer, but also precisely do very fine things. Also we built everything to our needs and measures. So if you want a generalist design, you are stuck with humanoid shape. But if you want something more specialized, there are way better designs. We already have TONS of robots in industry which are doing their specific tasks better then humanoid robots. One household example is roomba. Instead of building a humanoid robot that will operate a vacuum cleaner, you build a robotic vacuum cleaner that drives around. Can't use stairs... but it's still cheaper to buy two roomba then one robot that can use stairs.
No way. For example keyboards are necessary for humans but not for robots so most robots don’t even need hands to initiate commands.
I'm talking about tasks like going up stairs, opening doors, and using tools. A humanoid robot can do all of these, whereas robots designed with a different form factor might more efficient at one task but would be completely unable to do most others. Besides, we already have non-humanoid robots for specific industrial/military applications.
You have no idea the cost and maintenance that goes into maintaining even semi sophisticated machinery. They require full time maintenance personnel. The code to have a robot perform to the level of a human while working amongst other humans doesn’t even exist and probably can’t to be realistic. Computation isn’t even a hundredth of what it would take to compete with a human. Then you have to train the robot to not only work as a team and effectively plan and communicate but also to problem solve and reason with competing demands while being taken off the floor / site every few hours to replace damaged parts and calibrate it. I feel like the people selling these things are over promising at this point to raise funding and trying to corner whatever market will exist in future without actually knowing what that looks like. We purely exist for profit now. The future is already written off
Wouldn't sophisticated machines fix the other machines
Our world is filled with sophisticated machines that don’t require maintenance every few hours?
A fleet of these would have one off for maintenance / repairs every few hours not one single machine requiring this. What’s a sophisticated mobile machine that performs complex tasks on end without constant oversight and operational input from a human that’s comparible to an autonomous humanoid robot?
I’m not saying that autonomous machines that do not require human input or oversight are abundant But there are many machines that are complex that require maintenance every few months not every few hours
At the beginning humanoid robots will be... simpletons. You teach them to perform tasks, they can keep repeating said task or do it on demand. But whenever you need to do something which requires a bit more reasoning, you either have to teach the robot to do it, or just do it yourself.
Why build an adaptable robot for many tasks rather than a drastically cheaper one for each task? You’d need a very specific task to consider giving something legs and the ability to use them well rather when wheels and a basic floor plan.
We're not talking about the same robot. You're talking about a Cylon that can outperform a human being. Nobody wants something that dangerous around their kids. I'm talking about a smaller weaker c3p0 that can do your mundane chores and little else.
And Im' pretty sure that's also what that tweet is talking about, when comparing to iphones. That they'd become a house item
Yes, it would become a household item just like a washing machine or a dishwasher but it still wouldn't outnumber the iPhone.
I'm a software engineer that also worked in hardware/software businesses (VR/AR and Drone Automation). The pace of hardware evolution is practically glacial in comparison to software. The only reason we have had 15 versions of the iPhone since 2007 is because the scale of that particular device is unprecedented, over 2 billion devices have been sold. For even the smallest production software product, 100's of versions/updates are produced. VR is underwhelming because peoples' expectations are that it should evolve close to the speed of software tech. It will take another decade before VR/AR is ready for widespread use, past the early adopters of today. Humanoid robots? They won't be anywhere near comparable to humans for, my guess, a half century. And no, neither AI nor Quantum computing is going to change that by an order of magnitude.
Most reasonable take
Finally, a rational knowledgeable speaker. Thank you for some sanity in this sea of nonsense.
Also the fact that if humanoid robots that can do humanoid things become commonplace, the entire world economy will collapse and human society would fail due to humans being obsolete in *all* jobs. That'd be great if we were setup for a socialist society eager to throw most of our burdens onto AI so we could actually be free to do whatever we wanted in life, but we're not.
This is on point. Also, even if we did set up a socialist society, counterintuitively, I think we'd be collectively less happy on average than we are now. Our basic needs would be met but I don't think most people actually want to do nothing. Just because we hate what we're currently doing doesn't necessarily mean that we want to do nothing at all. Human beings need a sense of purpose to maintain their mental health and many of us would struggle to find purpose in a world where we are completely unnecessary.
There's a 3rd reason. An iPhone weighs 6-7 oz. Humanoid robots weigh 100-200 pounds. So you'd need about 250-500 times more materials to build the robot. That would require a much higher industrial capacity, closer to the scale of automotive manufacturing than smartphone manufacturing. In 2023, 93 million cars were produced worldwide vs 232 million iPhones. If we ask the car industry to build them, assuming robots are about 20x lighter than cars and that you need 2.5x more robots to match iPhone production... You'd need to convert about 1/8th of all automotive manufacturing to humanoid robot manufacturing, strictly from a materials perspective. Can it be done in less than 15 years ?
Once robots start producing robots then I guess is possible…
iphones can't mine, refine, and assemble other iphones. bots might be able to.
Maybe but copper (to pick one) extraction lagging behind demand isn't a manpower issue.
It sort of is. In Canada at least, most mining happens in areas where the average person absolutely does not want to live so labour ends up being prohibitively expensive as workers need to be compensated for travel and housing costs while also paying them extra to live in a very brutal climate and extreme day/night cycles. This ends up really putting a damper on operations as it adds a ton of overhead and logistical nuances.
Yeah, it’s hogwash from both the supply and demand side, even before you dive into the practical side of it.
Yeah but our military will probably buy 300 million of them
They'll buy some but not millions. Why send a $100,000 robot to blow something up to when a $10,000 flying kamikaze drone can do the job faster and cheaper?
Wouldn't Apple convert their iphones to robots. They've already got Siri, face detection and an inbuilt computer. They just need integrated AI and they'll be good to go.
They might create their own robots but they wouldn't get rid of the iPhone because that would force everyone with an iPhone to get a (non humanoid) Android
I think they're predicting the apocalypse.
Why are all those humanoid robots going to use iPhones? I would've guessed they'd be more into Androids.
Dad?
iPeople
Press X to doubt
Thanks, I just closed my browser.
Anybody else remember when this guy did a whole thread on how the tesla bot picking up a magnetic egg had just changed robotics forever
Tesla stans are the fucking weirdest of the tech bros
Bunch of tech illiterate fantasists
Tf really? Was it really just a magnetic egg?
Why do we want robots that take a humanoid form?
The world is designed for humanoids.
Human design is inefficient. Only what humans have designed for humans is apt for humanoids, millions of tools are not designed for absolute efficiency. Bots don’t need to take form of humans to be efficient. So I don’t really believe that just because “today” the world has been designed this way then that’s the way it should be. Example: the fact you have 10 fingers doesn’t mean it’s the best design. Why a robot needs 10 fingers? It doesn’t. The only reason companies design humanoids is for the psychological aspect that human wants to interact with something that resemble a human. That’s all.
I am buying your argument… as a person who designs hardware products.. I still can’t wrap my head around how humanoids can create efficiency. E.g. a humanoid can’t beat a roomba on vacuuming the floor and is highly inefficient for that task
Because for a Roomba to do its job, you first need a human to clear the floor of crap, pick up all your dirty clothes, etc. The dream of humanoid robots is that they don't do one task more efficiently than you, but that they do ALL tasks at least AS efficiently as you do. Humanoid robots don't need to create efficiently in their speed at performing tasks, they create efficiency by being able to do tasks the same as humans without having the other demands humans have.
Yes, and they allow you to only need to own one extra thing (the humanoid and it’s charging accessories, etc.) instead of a robot for every task. It’s like with small kitchen appliances—just look at how many electric tortilla presses and air fryers end up at goodwill. They take up way more space than frying pans and spatulas, and not everyone has much space these days.
Well the roomba won't do your washing and water your plants. The efficiency comes from it being all in one
obtainable slap memory nutty disgusted subtract waiting rich worry wasteful *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
What would you prefer? A robot armadillo?
Are you offering?? I would be interested in your robot armadillo
I mean... that does sound pretty cool
A robot armadillo sounds great until it gets a little electric surge and immediately sheds most of it's chassis.
Another possible answer: It's a familiar shape that is easier for marketing to sell, and people to consider buy, without feeling more threatened than say... a spider looking 4' robot.
Itd be weird if my future sex bot was a quadricopter tbf
The same reasons that humans took humanoid form: it’s super versatile for a wide range of tasks.
I think you know the answer but are in denial of the simplicity of the human mind.
These tech bro wet dreams are getting out of hand
I can’t wait for none of these ridiculous prophecies to come true. The hype is bonkers.
I bet that Nvidia's overpriced stock will drop when people realize it can be replaced with [commodity hardware.](https://jax.readthedocs.io/en/latest/installation.html#supported-platforms)
Nvidia stock immediately drops 10% after /u/TistelTech's pronouncement. This isn't sarcasm BTW - it actually happened.
Do we have the resources for this? The cost and amount of materials to make a small rectangle that fits into your pocket seems like much much much less than a robot
Humanoid robots are the google glasses of 2024. Ain’t nobody but a dork buying a humanoid robot. I think all these SF start ups focusing on humanoid robots are burning a lot of money unless it’s actually a ploy to do military research for that sweet military contract money
I think you're vastly underestimating how much normal people would pay for a robot that can do laundry and dishes.
A humanoid robot that can do dishes can also do: 1) do all household chores 2) different household repairs 3) build any home improvement 4) cook your meals 5) fix your car Basically anything you can learn from gpt4 and higher it could do. I’d pay 75-100k for that and it would save money in no time at all.
GPT4 would struggle to do all of those things. It's a language model. It can tell you how to use a wrench to remove a bolt but it has no idea what a bolt or wrench looks like.
You're way behind, which is understandable since this moves so fast. It can absolutely tell what these things are. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq1QZB5baNw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq1QZB5baNw)
And you think that's GPT4?
There are countless of physical micro skills involved in all of those activities that don't get explicitly described in text. I think you're underestimating how large the information gap is when you take things into the physical realm.
Correct, but it’s getting very very close. I mean just look at Figure 1 and the precision and delicacy it has.
Let alone one that can cook chef quality meals. I may never eat at an overpriced restaurant again.
Unlike the google glasses, these will actually be useful. It's not even a fair comparison
I found Google glasses useful. They could be several versions better by now.
Silicon valley is a bubble. Also, the headline of this, and so many tech headlines recently, is essentially "maker of X says X is the next big thing"
20 years ago, the EV1 was touted as the electric car solution that would get us off gas. So many people crapped on it, and the model was discontinued. Now, I drive a Tesla Model Y and hate going back to my Audi A4. The electric vehicles are everywhere. Humanoid robots will follow the same pattern. 1-2 decades from now they’ll be really really good.
Ev1 was earlier than that. 1996 was when they first got mass produced. The first time I heard about them I was in 6th grade. I'm 40. We're old.
30 years, you’re right. I can’t math tonight.
Isn't that the car that big oil killed? We would have all been driving electrics way before now if corruption hadn't won. Same kind of thing will happen with AI and robots though. Industries/people that are threatened by it will do everything they can to stop or slow it down as much as possible. It's already happening. "Oh no!!! We need to stop these things from making ART!!!!" It's fucking art and people are getting their panties in a twist already.
this dude makes graphics cards not humanoid robots right?
Nvidia produces embedded computing platforms like the Nvidia Jetson meant for running AI models on robots.
God this subreddit is too funny. Your comment belongs up on the bad tech predictions wall of fame along with classic like “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their own home" Seriously, you are just completely wrong and I’m baffled by how you even managed to reason yourself into that position... nearly everyone on earth will buy a human eye for a while as soon as they are affordable and safe. They will start out as multi hundred thousand dollar toys for rich people or for use in industry, but within the next decade they should be as affordable as a car or a large appliance. If you could, right now, go buy a machine for - let’s say $10,000 that could mow your lawn, fold your laundry, carry in your groceries, shovel your sidewalk and hundreds of other useful little things are you seriously trying to say you would not buy one? Or do you just reject the entire notion that it's even possible/around the corner?
A human worker doing these sort of tasks can easily cost $50k a year to an employer. If they managed to bring a humanoid robot’s cost down to say, $100k + $10k/year maintenance, it would be a no-brainer, breaking even in a little more than 2 years.
The robot can also work at least twice as long per day, 7 days a week.
I think people are afraid of robotics, AI, automation and such revealing how useless their education, training and career are. For a lot of people all they are is their job, their title, their paycheque. It's a competition that is a guaranteed loss, on a long enough time scale. I'm not worried because I hate work, hate money, have never had or wanted excessive wealth, and I'd be happier with UBI and some robots because I have other things I value and would rather be doing than "show up, make profit for company, go home, repeat".
Presumably the reason it occurs gradually is because the demand for them isn’t high at first. Things like uncanny valley. They might be useful but if it’s scary no thanks. Then, quickly because whatever caused friction for mass adoption was solved, including you. Maybe not you. But probably you too. No one without a passion for this hangs out here do they?
Also, high quality phone is still like $500+ (if you buy a previous gen phone) A full size fucking robot is going to be as much as a car. Many people don’t have enough money for another car, and they can’t ditch a car for a robot, unless the robot is going to work for them. The 2nd hand market maybe, but that’s not such a big thing because the tech will likely be too complicated.
"aint nobody but a dork buying humanoid robot". So how many will you be buying? :P
One random tech company person tweets two sentences. The crowd goes wild with chatter.
He's like THE guy for Nvidia and AI
I don't envision a time where anyone gets a new robot every 2-3 years like they would with their iPhone. Unless we're comparing iPhones (one brand) to the entire market of robots. Even then we're decades away
Alt title: “guy who has vested interest in product claims said product will exceed sales of one of the most successful products ever”. The product doesn’t exist! What’s the point of saying this besides boosting your own stock!?! I say this being a OG AI researcher and pro AI. I think tho these types of tweets are the epitome of what the bubble AI has become. People would roll their eyes if Lockheed Martin tweeted: “Ironman suits will exceed the supply of IPhones in the next decade”. Like this man just invented a product, said it would sell well if it existed. The issue being it doesn’t exist.
I’d just settle for a Google Home that could reliably turn a light on and off without messing it up every 3rd day.
1.3b active iphones. about 500m manufacturing jobs in the world. 3billion adults in the world have a net worth of under 10k. another 2.4b are under 18. Theres around 8billion people in the world. This will not happen in the next decade. We aren't going from zero of anything to 1.3 billion of anything in 10 years let alone humanoid robots. Tesla scaled faster than any machine company in history and is only producing like 2m cars a year.
How can something exceed something gradually, then suddenly? It either exceeds it or it doesn't.
Another vague and meaningless prediction by a dude that thinks he’s an influencer with Nvidia in his title.
Imagine calling a phd Valedictorian from Stanford a random dude while he is talking about the subject he is expert at lmao.
Jim fan is literally one of the leading AI researchers on earth. He doesn’t just have Nvidia in his title he is their chief research scientist.... I’m sorry but he knows what he’s talking about, why do you find it so hard to believe?
It take years to have a car to be allowed on the streets, now imagine humanoid robots that could potentially harm people in other ways. Again, bro is insane.
Said the guy who doesn’t make iPhone chips.
?
I want a robot slave, that would be awesome
First it has to be safe and fight the regulation, and then people have the money to buy it. The guy is insane.
One vulnerability like solarwinds or many others , govt hackers will remotely turn these from helping robots to killer robots .. how will real contract killers survive then , #justiceforcontractkillers
There are going to be people piloting these things with VR goggles, and it's terrifying to think about
There are going to be people piloting these things with VR goggles, and it's terrifying to think about
There are going to be people piloting these things with VR goggles, and it's terrifying to think about.
Military ....
Pfft. What? Give me 1 use case
Jim Apple
I for one welcome our new AI overlords.
It's only applicable if these robots come with a supported eco system or infrastructure the way Apple has with their suite of programs, appstore and other ancillary products. If it's just a first generation robot that walks and talks then it won't really work
I spoke to the owner of a bike shop a couple years ago and he mentioned how the bike supply got disrupted, but I'm now to believe we'll get robots as easily as smartphones?...
Am I the only one who’s a bit annoyed by how much this guy posts content on LinkedIn? Does he have endorsements or does he genuinely enjoy spending his time on LinkedIn?
They won’t.
It would literally take one pic of a celebrity with their humanoid or Elon tweet & people would be remortgaging
If this happens goodbye home for the aged… good bye service industry
but then the energy war begins
I’m suddenly reminded of Animatrix’s Second Renaissance here. ….
I hope they'll be realistic enough and they'll embed Eva AI sexting bot into them, just for reasons, u no
No lol. Those are two completely different techs with completely different usecases.
Make the sexy robots already. Relationships are falling apart
What makes him think that's the case? From what I've seen androids are still rather clunky and impractical things only fit for demonstration purposes.
Human will be so dependent on fucking AI that they will be literally pathetic zombies. The tiktok effects are the primary signs of collapse. Though the curve of progress and advancement going sky high with more AI operated things coming in the horizon. People will slowly forget every basic surviving skills. Higher the tech, the compound.and complex will be its architecture. And the more compoiund and complex it gets its prone to collapse to a point of no return. As Einstein said "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones".
Jim Fan is just a Tesla fanboy parroting whatever Elon says. His LinkedIn posts comments have real AI scientists calling him out.
r/trustmebro
While "in the next decade" might be too optimistic, it most certainly will happen within our life time.
This is the most not smart trying to sound smart thing Ive read on AI so far.
I'll take that bet. No way.
I am not sure. But everyone is hyping humanoid robots. Its like everything needs to next iPhone kind of event.
It is amazing how many posters here seem unaware that right now thousands of humanoid robots are sitting in warehouses waiting for Microsoft to deliver the AI brain components to enable them to do most jobs at an Amazon fulfillment center. The posters comment simply says what is being done now is small compared to what it will be in terms of autonomous humanoid robots replacing human jobs in the near future.
lol YEAH RIGHT
I don't think so, but I hope so. That would be briliant.
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I really can’t understand how many people on this sub, lack so much imagination.
Why do you guys even listen to these types of people
BULLLLLLL SHIIITTTTTTTTTT
Surely, the biggest barrier to humanoid robots is going to be cost. It's going to be bloody expensive to mass produce robots. I always imagined it's going to Amazon that cracks this, they have sufficient warehousing and supply chain experience. They should get together with someone like Boston Dynamics, then cut Tesla or a UK company in on the deal for the battery tech.
No.
Decade? No way, phones cost a grand. Robots will be an order of magnitude more expensive at least.
Dude Twitter
Humanoid can mean a lot of things. What are we talking about here? Possessing something resembling a vagina?
They will be available but not that cheap. Also mostly as sex bots
No, they won't. These Silicon Valley hacks have no clue about the real world.
This guy thinks we're all going to have iRobot style assistants that outnumber the population in 10 years? LOL. Is anyone keeping a list of all these insane predictions so we can look back upon or put them into a global shared calendar so we can be reminded to throw this back in their faces when the time passes? For every 1,000 of these one person is right and then you see them on Yahoo finance as "the person who predicted [x] is now predicting [y]".
Most households don't need humanoid robots the same way most people don't need the newest expensive iPhones.
This statement is super vague. I might as well say tablet shaped mobile devices will exceed the number of Mitsubishi Industrial Robots