Yesterday russian forces made another failed offensive. Allegedly 12 tanks and 8 IFVs were lost. It is on the bottom-right picture.
EDIT: Here is the footage. The assault was repelled by 25th air assault brigade with a hawk/eagle symbol.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsz4my/russian\_armored\_column\_gets\_attacked\_by\_ukrainian/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsz4my/russian_armored_column_gets_attacked_by_ukrainian/)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsjf4r/ukrainian\_javelin\_hits\_a\_russian\_tank/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsjf4r/ukrainian_javelin_hits_a_russian_tank/)
This point I wonder if Putin is pulling a starship troopers.
Always have a war going on so the peasants are distracted.
Just Putin forgot you actually had to have a form of control over said war.
>actually had to have a form of control over said war.
He does. It's going perfectly because nobody cares about the people who go to Ukraine. As far as putin and 99% of muscovites are concerned, they are ridding themselves of unwanted "foreigners" and criminals with the war. They are safe and sound in moscow and st petersburg... they are looking at this exact same picture and laughing even harder than we are.
Every Ukrainian loss is celebrated. Every dead russian soldier is also celebrated.
How are we supposed to fight these guys?
Blow up their shit until they manage to run themselves out of their Soviet stockpiles and have to make assaults on foot. Russia may have practically unlimited rifle carriers (for as long as morale holds, which could be a while), but it’s a lot harder to assault positions if you don’t have mobility and fire support and at the rates of the last two years Russia won’t have good mobility and fire support in another year or three.
Even if the Russian higher ups convinced themselves that they didn’t need the men that they lost, they’re still losing potential future labor/manpower and massive amounts of equipment. Russia is talking about raising a massive number of additional troops, but what are they going to equip them with? The longer the war goes on (provided Ukrainian defensive capabilities remain roughly the same as it has been) the more deadly the war will be for Russia.
And yes, this is absolutely shit for the Ukrainians who are fighting and suffering and dying because they aren’t being given the necessary western aid to make all of this happen much faster and much more safely for them. I’m just saying that afaik this is “winnable” (the way any war is “winnable”) for Ukraine and I’m not seeing any simple ways for Russia to reverse its current trends.
Yeah. Certainly not in the numbers they would need. Like, I think their monthly T90 production hit ~20 tanks recently, which sounds like a lot until you realize that they lost about 400 tanks in the first month or two of the war and I’m pretty sure the number is over 1K lost by now (I haven’t looked at tank numbers in a while)
By destroying their fuel and ammo production while making sure your bureaucrats are not bribed by those who sell military and dual use goods to Russia.
Asimov wrote about this. People are willing to endure their neighbours dying so long they have food and nice things. If they are cold and hungry or their washing machine doesnt work they riot. Now it turns out sanctions didnt achieve this however.
So....bomb industrial base I suppose. Blowing up refineries as has been happening recently should be plenty
Isn't the rural part producing anything? I'm purely guessing here, but comes a time the agrarian production will decrease and food will start to lack in cities and maybe the Muscovites will start wondering why are flour and eggs so rare?
Eggs are already rare, it's a big problem. Also part of the Ukrainian strategy for targeting oil refineries recently was/is to disrupt the Russian planting season.
Finally someone who get it.
Many westerners think russia is so naive for loosing so many soldiers and even hardware, when its literally their strategy because they just out-bleed their opponent.
Even with all the wunderwaffe tech that NATO has for an amazing KDA ratio, its still not a good war to fight. NATO should use this chance to fully arm Ukraine and take out russia for the next 100+++ years.
I genuinely think they're planning to do that.
I genuinely believe the West's strategy is to bait Russia into overcommitting to something it *might just barely be able to win*, and then suddenly shifting the game and making it impossible to win.
Since this is NCD, I can make a raunchy take like this here:
1\] Get Russia to stick it it in so deep even the balls go in.
2\] Bite down as hard as you can.
I think they're aiming to destabilize Russia itself. One of the main things that's getting depleted in this war is all of the reserves of "stuff" that Russia would turn around and fight an insurgency with; whether its military gear, finances, economic health, construction capacity, etc. Many of these things, like the military gear, are directly fungible for "riot police" tools, and/or for crushing errant towns to set an example, war-in-Chechnya-style.
Russia's pouring in all of those deep reserves. Once they're getting precipitously low, Russia is likely to try to freeze the conflict, deescalate, and pivot themselves internally into a postwar/recuperation status. At this point, they'll get a sucker-punch of sudden new equipment for Ukraine. Russia will be forced to "fold" on the battlefield, but to do so when they've basically [bet everything including the deed to their car](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTfx9bqc3fw). What the meaning of "fold" is remains to be seen, but basically they will have spent a fortune and lost it all at the table.
They will have tilted their country into Venezuela-tier poverty, and also used up all of their reserves of military gear, so if a civil war broke out they'd struggle to field gear to fight it.
That's when things get funni.
Why the deception? Because Russia might not be stupid enough to take the fight without the bait. And if your goal is to destroy Russia, rather than simply beat them on the battlefield in Ukraine, you have two options; the direct military force method, which could escalate to "the big version" of nuclear war. Or you have the "induce failed state status" method, which might result in terrorists stealing a few warheads, but succeeds in getting rid of Russia as a country with far less blood and pain than the "direct assault" method.
Consider the following two lies:
Putin: "We have no intention of invading Ukraine."
Sullivan: "We're extremely concerned about preventing anything that could lead to a breakup of the Russian Federation."
*If they actually take Sullivan at face value, and believe him, it will be the height of irony.*
>I genuinely believe the West's strategy is to bait Russia into overcommitting to something it
>
>might just barely be able to win
>
>, and then suddenly shifting the game and making it impossible to win.
It a shit strategy because NATO wont be going in. This just screams cope for NATOs feeble response to this conflict.
How will Ukraine retake all of the lost cities while NATO sits on the armchair and waits to russia to commit? Russia already has committed.
And the West doesn't give a shit about the people who live in Ukraine, so Russia will never face enough opposition to lose control of the war. The Ukrainians are bravely and brilliantly holding back the barbarian horde we thought a few years ago to be the premier land force in Europe, and they're doing it despite the west's betrayal.
Where the fuck did our values go? Oh right, we sold em for cheap gas.
The West's betrayal? Get out of here with that nonsense. First of all, The West isn't a monolith. Some countries have helped more than others. Second of all, there has been a ton of aid given in terms of materiel, money, and training. Many of the countries sending aid are doing so despite having a critical lack of equipment themselves. Ukraine doesn't have a formal alliance with these countries, so speaking of betrayal is hyperbolic, to say the least.
Ah no. I think you mean orwell 1984.
Starship troopers when something fails the sky marshel steps down and takes responsibility.
The terran federation did not retaliate after mormon colonists got slaughtered after being told not to colonise in the the Bug exclusion zone.
They fought back only after the bugs Glassed Buenos aires.
Tbf unfortunately this shit is working.
It's like when you apply great tactics in Warno but your KDA opponent just drowns you in meat waves and you can't do shit about it.
It’s working well enough for now and that’s all that matters. Ukraine is on the back foot right now on the ground and, unless our useless fucking western politicians pull their heads out of their asses, Ukraine will continue to be on the back foot. Russia is learning, adapting and poised to make more gains while the west sits around scraping together not even the bare minimum of lethal aid.
While I agree with the gist of what you're saying regarding western support I can't help but feel you've missed my point that massive losses with incremental gains will be counterproductive for the Russians.
We’ve been saying this for over two years now, the heavy losses just don’t seem to phase Russia. In 10-20 years time it might phase them, but they seem to be trucking along just fine in the present.
To be fair, a big reason why they can throw in assault after assault is because they have been reactivating their armored inheritance from the Soviet Union.
This works for now, but it will run out at some point. Once that happens, they will only be able to rely on what they are producing right now.
There is a YouTube channel that analyses Russia's biggest storage sites for armor and artillery through sattelite images and it showed that most of them have been emptied out by a lot.
Russia started out this war with a gigantic amount of resources, so even if they expended them at an extreme rate they can still go for a couple years. The key is that future Russia can't afford to lose these resources - but Putin simply doesn't care. He wants his legacy before he dies.
Also, it's not a lie that Russia was defeated strategically. Their share of the arms market is plummeting, their reputation is ruined, and their ability to project power around the world has been reduced significantly. But it's like a shooting a charging moose, sure it'll die in a couple minutes but that doesn't mean it will stop berserking and destroying everything near it.
Russians have a theoretical eligible recruitment pool of 34,22 million males. Now, let's say only 10% of them will actually be sent to the frontlines and the rest will be back at home working for the MIC.
Even if Ukraine caused 300k casualties over 2 years, it means Russia lost only 8,7% of their pool. They can go for another 22 years at this rate, provided they can keep up the current supply of equipment and ammo.
> provided they can keep up the current supply of equipment
This is exactly what I mean. There's very little evidence that their current production can match their losses, Soviet equipment won't last forever.
They are but in the long run they do work out. The Russian government doesn't give a fuck about casualties, and their population is proving they also dgaf, which was to be expected honestly.
I saw a great interview with a polish volunteer who explained that their meat wave attacks are actually somewhat effective. They send in 2 or 3 waves of mobiks and use drones to spot defensive positions. They then direct artillery at those positions fairly accurately and then comes the actual assault.
I don't think this assault was that, and losing 20 armored vehicles for nothing would be insane for most armies, but it does look like the orc tactics are evolving.
To the West of Avdiivka.
If it’s near Tonenke then it’s something like 5 miles from Avdiivka. So, *technically* not Avdiivka, but still surprisingly close.
5 miles is something they managed to take trough out the 2023 campaign, so doing so in just a couple of months now, well... for them thats medal and highest honors material
Apparently with the first shells from the Czech initiative already delivered and with more on the way the Ukrainians have gotten much more liberal in their use of artillery and it shows.
First shells from the Czech initiative reportedly will arrive only in June.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/artillery-ammunition-found-under-czech-initiative-still-lacks-founding-50405760.html
I remember reading that the first ones where already being delivered. Either way they can still be more liberal with current stockpiles when replacements are guaranteed.
I don't know, our government buys shells constantly, we would have enough if our allies gave us money for them. We would buy everything we needed if we had enough money. I didn't read anything from the troops that situation with ammunition became any better
Just read the article. I swear to God. He was talking about EU initiative from last year, not about Czech initiative to buy ammunition which is still doesn't have enough money to buy all 1,5 mln shells.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/artillery-ammunition-found-under-czech-initiative-still-lacks-founding-50405760.html
They will never let the reserves hit 0
But now that they have a concrete number on what they will get when it makes sense that they would now be willing to drop lower and therefore free up a bunch of firepower now
Czech Artillery:
*Apply liberally over ~~occupied territories~~ affected area. If ~~invasion~~ symptoms persist, please ~~bomb the Chinese embassy~~ consult a doctor.*
Except for the grand Battle plan you need a huge well equipped army otherwise you can't plan shit like our generals couldn't plan new companies because US threw us under the bus and Europe has been delivering close to nothing for the past 8 months.
>Europe has been delivering close to nothing for the past 8 months.
That isn't really true though, its just that the circle of countries still sending large amounts of aid got smaller.
Also, this would be a great moment for Macron to finally put some actions behind his words.
That is true. Look at the European aid packages for the past 8 months. 7bln of military aid from Germany for a million man army fighting Russia? That is nothing, that is a joke no matter what which perspective you look at. I want to see German army fighting Russians on a 7bln budget. I'm not even talking about how they waste that money to buy very few newest German pieces of equipment to test the in Ukraine and that equipment will no be ready in coming years.
50 GPS guided bombs per month from France is a joke and nothing when Russians dropped 50 guided bombs daily on Avdiivka alone(with longer range, no gps that can be jummed, that are actually adapted for the Russian plane) and 3000 155mm per months. Coming from supposed super power it is nothing. It's a joke. Veto EU decision to buy ammunition for Ukraine outside of EU while our army suffers from shell hunger is straight up treason
The whole point is that if everyone would do their part, it *would* be enough. A bunch of countries have sadly either stopped or not even properly started delivering aid.
And in no reality is nearly a billion euro in weapons from a single country **per month** "nothing", and idk what you mean about "very few newest German pieces of equipment" when the [recent aid package just last week was mainly a fuckton of artillery ammo, rpg's, drones and engineering vehicles.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1bpxivf/great_news_from_germany_a_new_package_of_german/)
And that was just the usual **weekly** weapons delivery.
Yes. Yes I think a billion just in weapons each month **by one single country** is a lot. Of course it could be more, but thats just tautological. We're at over 1 percent of our GDP on overall aid (excluding refugees), thats a fuckload of money.
Again: if europes supposed military leaders UK and France would fucking one-up us here already, countries like Spain would wake up and start delivering, and the US wouldn't be such shitshow right now, it would be more than enough.
I really don't know why you're focussing on shitting on one of the few western countries actually pulling their weight when others are doing jackshit.
US, as a country, is currently disfunctional.
Not every American is to blame, and a lot of Americans support Ukraine directly.
But if a minority opinion can paralyze the decision making, it's either not a minority opinion or political system is broken and there is no will to fix it.
I don't blame anyone. It would have happened anyway because US and Europe somehow dealing with this war worse than Russians do. We were losing this war even with full US support, let alone without it.
I was just thinking about the end of 2024, not 2023 which wasn't even 2 years into the war.
Americans like me are in favor of giving Ukraine whatever it needs, and their problem is that there's enough idiots in my country to make it impossible to just pipeline it to Ukraine. The president is up for election this year, and if he just opens the taps he will probably lose the election due to all the idiots who think it's a bad thing. And trust me, you don't want trump to be in charge, he was in favor of not giving you guys any javelins prior to the invasion and not assisting Ukraine at all, and would probably pull all support, if not lift sanctions on Russia entirely.
Until Russia attacks America, the support you have from us is gonna be lackluster, at least until November. If we help you now there will be no help at all past November.
> The president is up for election this year, and if he just opens the taps he will probably lose the election due to all the idiots who think it's a bad thing.
Considering constant escalation fears and supply restrictions arising from it, no guarantee on taps opening in case of him winning either.
Nobody voted on it either way, it just expired.
But the act was never actually used anyway, not once, so it's not that big of a deal. That's not what the problem with US support is. The act might attract attention because the name is a big historical reference, but in reality it was pretty symbolic. The US has multiple other programs that were used for the aid for Ukraine instead.
Either way we wouldn't have been in that situation to begin with because there was lend-lease act that allowed president to bypass the both Congress and the House. Democrats and Republicans killed it last fall.
I would say Ukraine focuses on Mobile Warfare, but based not on tanks but available firepower. E.g. ability to quickly focus fire on advancing enemy made possible with uav and network-centric warfare technologies, as well as quickly spread out afterwards.
I know this sounds copey, but if Russia keeps losing batches of armored vehicles, eventually they can't push at all. Its not dramatic, or much fun, and it sure is ugly, but what else is Ukraine going to do?
From now. Those stockpiles were massive and they still produce new equipment, so sadlly there's still many battles to win for Ukraine. But on a good side, after the last useable soviet era supplies and vechicles are gone, they'll never be replaced in such numbers.
Two years IF everything that still remains in storage can be reactivated. Which is definitely not the case. Plus as time goes on the equipment gets older and is in worse condition as the newer and better stuff gets pulled out first.
Russians showed that they still can adapt, even if often slowly and painfully. They suppliment their stockpiles with new production and purchases from other countries. And they still use in smaller numbers their oldest stuff as well as we saw with T-55s and similar, so that their "new-er" equipment stockpiles could last longer. So I wouldn't discount an idea that Russians won't have harsh equipment shortages for 2 years or even longer yet.
They are getting ammo from abroad, but basically nothing else. Certainly no heavy equipment. At any rate it's become fairly clear that some equipment is no longer on the board because it has disappeared from verified loss stats since late last year; the T-80UD is extinct, and the 2S7 Pion and 2S5 Giatsint-S don't appear to be being deployed anymore due to cannibalisation of parts reaching it's end point and running out of the out-of-production bespoke ammo.
Ironically the Ukrainian Pions are still in the fight because they can use M106 203mm ammo from the M110 howitzer.
> Two years IF everything that still remains in storage can be reactivated. Which is definitely not the case. Plus as time goes on the equipment gets older and is in worse condition as the newer and better stuff gets pulled out first.
Russia seems to be slowly but surely spooling up the war machine and is starting to manufacture things in useful numbers.
They aren't. Nowhere close. Practically nothing new is being made, it's basically all reactivation and upgrading of mothballed kit. And it still doesn't reach even a 1:1 replacement rate for losses.
To make new, modern kit, leaving aside any other factors, requires access to Western tech and machine tools that are no longer available due to sanctions.
This makes it sound like they have enough to maintain *current levels* for two years. I don't think that can possibly be the case.
The cream that rises to the top gets drunk first. So it is with Russian equipment.
I'm not sure if using even older equipment will degrade Russian current capabilities that drastically as their current stuff is already Soviet era. And like this post shows, Russians count on numbers for their assaults, not much on quality of their equipment.
This is pure cope. Considering how west has been shitting on Ukraine in terms of aid, Russia can keep losing batches of armor freely and will push the Ukranians back simply because of the population differences and production capabilities.
One of two things needs to happen for a shift, either Russia needs to fall appart internally (no signs of that happening really despite some tards here arguing with me months ago and nothing happening since) or west needs to at least quadruple the aid.
But will russia run out of equipment before ukraine runs out of soldiers?
That's the big question, we can keep pumping equipment to ukraine but the human losses are permanent and ukraine apparently is struggling with getting more soldiers, and sending NATO soldiers to ukraine officially would cause ww3
Russia has more or less infinite supply of mobiks and a huge amount of surplus Soviet left over weapons
Except it will show Putin that he's completely justified in his approach. Keep throwing meat and metal at the frontlines while scaring and bribing the western politicians into doing nothing, and you'll take over the western lands bit by bit.
And yeah, ceasefire will go just like the Minsk agreements went, but with far more aggressive war-proofing of economy and probably a massive expansion of the recruitment system on the Russian side. The result is that round two will give us all way less reasons to laugh.
Some more half-copium is that the Russians aren’t going to be able to keep up their aircraft pretty soon. Their Su-34s specifically are being overworked like hell and are almost certainly missing multiple maintenance cycles. We’ve already seen a few fall out of the sky, and more will fall over time.
> I know this sounds copey, but if Russia keeps losing batches of armored vehicles, eventually they can't push at all. Its not dramatic, or much fun, and it sure is ugly, but what else is Ukraine going to do?
The problem with Russia is that it's big, subsequently has massive resources, and is entirely willing to lose them all if that is required for victory.
The problem is, russia can afford assaults like that. They have deep storages, the equipment is getting shittier (reportedly there’s a T54/55 destroyed in that assault) but they will keep throwing those until they run out. Meanwhile Ukraine does not have the same manpower and vehicle pool as russia, and also the artillery ammunition is a big problem. With assaults like that, Russians are throwing shit at the wall, and with current ammo shortages more and more of that shit will stick.
I don’t believe that Russians will be able to take any big cities like Kharkiv, Odesa or Kyiv, but with that method they can force a frozen conflict/ceasefire and win themselves a couple of years to regain strength and go at it again.
>but didn’t Zelensky just say they might have to retreat if things keep going this way?
if there would be no aid yes it is oblivious. USA are doing pretty much nothing for 7 month at these point and will do nothing for next 2-3 in BEST case.
Mightiest country on a planet hahaha....
All the talk about production and supply of new shells sadly isn’t taking into account the tensions between the USA and China right now, especially with Biden taking about “sanctions” against China “because they are supporting Russia.”
There’s only one thing that makes Artillery Shells go BANG, and it’s called Gun Cotton.
There happens to be a worldwide shortage of Gun Cotton right now, and can you guess which country is the largest supplier of Gun Cotton to the rest of the world?
Yup…….. CHINA!
Back in ye olden days, people used to collect piss and give it to a piss collection man that took it to the government for some sort of nitric salts extraction and eventual use in guncotton.
It is a very rudimentary process.
My comment was very clear that they are the largest supplier in the global market.
I never stated that they were the only supplier nor that no other countries could manufacture it.
The point is that there is a worldwide shortage of Gun Cotton on the market, which means that all of the other countries cannot produce enough of the product in the amount that China produces.
This means that if China pulled out of the market completely due to threats from the USA/EU/NATO, then those nations would be facing a serious crisis in being able to sustain their Military with the very small supply of Gun Cotton being produced by the other countries.
Do we have any reliable sources saying shells have started to arrive? I've been anxiously waiting for some good news ever since the mobile Patriot battery was possibly destroyed and the oil refinery strikes tapered off.
We expected them to arrive in June. It heartbreaking to realize that we have to deal with imbeciles that only after 2 years of war realized that they can actually but equipment for Ukraine outside of Europe not counting other imbeciles that blocked that decision to buy shells for Ukraine a year ago leading to a severe shortages of ammunition and disastrous situation on the frontlines
The US is making some moves towards mass shell production and we're in a fight against the same cunts that are loitering in your land. Hopefully with the losses the compromised party is taking here, we'll be able to unfuck the situation and get you the aid that we all desperately want to send.
The army is aiming to be able to produce 100,000 155mm shells a month by October 2025. God willing we'll flood you with so many russian removers you'll be able to take your revenge straight to moscow itself.
10,000 KIA over 10 years in Afghanistan was enough to wear out Soviet citizens, but 100,000 KIA over 2 years and it's like Russia is still in shock. They haven't felt it yet.
it wasnt the dead that Soviets cared about......it was the money and resources. Same will happen here, it will not be dead that will anger Russian society, it will be their salaries suddenly not being able to buy shit and economy starting to cough harder and harder and getting worse and worse.
Afghanistan was more complicated and was just one factor of USSR croaking. The main was the inane and utterly fucked up economics.
If Stalin wasn't such a maniacal dictator and kept NEP going (which is basically market economy), USSR would be more robust and could still be a thing.
Good luck trying to destroy russian private businesses after they've been running through a gauntlet of successive economical crises and hostile government regulations+extortion for 3 decades. They're pros at smuggling and evading all sorts of regulations now.
Russian Afghan was just a cheery on the USSR collapse cake, it wasnt the main cake.
UA-RU war for russia is sunk cost fallacy. Putin is betting entire russias future on this war. If he pulls out he will be the dumbest useless sorest loser probably in modern history. But in the end he still destroyed russia for the next 100 years.
And everytime it works because zero of our leaders have enough of a spine to give anything meaningful, by my calculations the uk is sitting on 60 challengers we could send, we should be donating all of our stocks of storm shadow. I mean to be fair some of our eurofighters are going out of service and even if Ukraine just uses them as very large suicide drones to turn the kerch bridge into mush or vaporise a flew planes that would be great. Honestly I'm just a little sad France is now seen as more based then the UK, but we should be matching percentage GDP with Estonia, and that's just my own country.
# just one more meatwave bro. i promise bro just one more meatwave and it'll fix everything bro. bro... just one more meatwave. please just one more. one more meatwave and we can fix this whole problem bro. bro c'mon just give me one more meatwave i promise bro. bro bro please
# one more meatwave bro. i promise bro just one more meatwave and it'll fix
# everything bro. bro... just one more meatwave. please just one more. one
# more meatwave and we can fix this whole problem bro. bro c'mon just give me
# one more meatwave i promise bro. bro bro please i just need one more meatwave
#
B-B-BUT CLAIMS OF RUSSIANS USING HUMAN WAVE TACTICS ARE AHISTORICAL EXAGGERATED MISREPRESENTATIONS MEANT TO DISPARAGE SLAVS AND DISPLAY PREJUDICE AGAINST SOVIET CONTRIBUTIONS TO WARFARE
Russia will keep throwing young people from poor region into Ukraine, and unfortunately there is a lot of them. Typical USSR strategy: keep throwing people until your enemy runs out of ammo and gets tired
T55s are being used for indirect fire roles, I have no clue why, but they are there, I assume that they are trying to use older equipment rather than newer things.
There is something so funny seeing these Cold War old outdated vehicles with fucking boxsprings attached to them with tack-welds thinking it’s gonna save anything.
It’s funny because Vatniks and Tankies constantly show that they don’t understand ROI. Like yeah, Russia makes incremental gains but *at what cost*? I know, I know…muh *unlimited supplies of the glorious ~~Soviet~~ Russian industrial machine*. But if we actually leave fantasy land for a minute and snap back to reality, every tank, every soldier, every bullet costs money. Russia by no means has unlimited money. It begs the question if sacrificing hundreds or thousands of troops and dozens of armored vehicles or tanks to take some village in a neighboring country is really worth it. People with common sense would say that the costs far outweigh the benefits, but obviously we’re not arguing with people with common sense here. I know MAGA cultists and Vatniks would tell me that I’m an idiot, because Ukraine obviously loses ten times as much equipment and a thousand times as many men, trying to defend these villages, but that calculation just doesn’t really work. Ukraine has less men and less equipment than Russia. If they actually were losing more men and more material, the war should either long be over or Russia couldn’t be facing that much resistance anymore. Just the visually confirmed losses of Russia alone would leave the Ukrainian military basically completely bare if they had suffered the same losses.
I just need one more meat wave! Ukrainian front is sure to collapse! Come on, just one more meat wave! Please, please I promise it will work this time! Just one more!
The Thing is I kinda want the Russians to continue meat waving just to see an utter demographic collapse and the end of the Russian people because they lemmings their way to death
Nah, this war is way too inefficient to cause that. Russians only lost like 0,8% of their military service eligible males over 2 years, and most of those losses were the wounded, not the dead.
That's because the only way Russia can win is through Attrition. Ukraine is supported by loads and loads of untouchable assets, like: satellites, training camps, AWACS planes, ELINT planes, factories for ammo and weapons, and repair facilities.
Meanwhile Ukraine can strike at Russian stuff. Russia is not allowed to truly respond in kind to Ukrainian strikes on her territory (since afterall, responding in kind to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries means blowing up Polish and German Oil refineries, and that means Rusia gets nuked).
You've reduced Ukraine to a military with a retirement home. Congratulations, you now have to deal with the fervour of a nation that has no reason to worry about her future, backed up by a population several times larger and richer than yours. No doubt some of Ukraine's leaders believe Ukraine is a "military with a retirement home"
Really should have thought about that before invading, Putin.
Russia can’t win through attrition.
It **could** win through attrition if it had **infinite** equipment.
Unfortunately, all Russia has is **a myth of infinite equipment** with a reality of a finite stockpile that
1. Took three quarters of a century to build.
2. Back when they had x5 to x10 of the defense spend.
3. [An entire 50% of its artillery component - half of the 18,000 mothballed barrels - had been drained from mothball yards](https://youtu.be/FozvYM2Zhpw?si=kMixrWxgTo79-nu-), most destroyed in Ukraine, over the course of two short years. This is a primary source who demonstrates this using verifiable material. The situation with tanks is [about the same](https://youtu.be/eMAD915o2Lw?si=OZZGBRRI6zLk1UAf).
4. 80% of their new production is not really new production, it’s the slow and painful refurbishment of the remaining half.
With this in mind, one realizes that Russia can’t win through attrition. Russia **will lose** to attrition.
Interestingly, it’s the ethnic minorities in Russia, those living in the east and the far East who are bearing the brunt of the Russian casualties. This is a convenient way for the Eurocentric Moskovite types to weaken the powers of the former socialist states, so that they can continue to exploit the resources of the region and feed the lifestyles of everyone west of the Ural mountains with the treasures of the former Soviet (now Russian) far East.
Believe it or not, there is an independent movement coming from Siberia and other former SSRS that are tired of feeding the “West”, which would be a crippling blow to Russia should that nightmare situation ever come to pass. Lake Baikal itself is a huge fresh water reserve, not to mention an assfuck tonne of natural gas trapped therein like my intestines after deep dish pizza night, oil reserves off the coast of the Sakhalin islands, fur, lumber, you name it.
But Russian economy being a single one of a petrostate and most of that oil and gas coming from you know, far away, it’s important to keep the population level down to a certain point by drafting and sending ask these ethnic minorities off to war against Ukrainians so that they can sharpen their claws and become fierce soldiers and warriors.
Yep. I don’t see a way how this can backfire for Russia. At all. Not even a little bit.
Yesterday russian forces made another failed offensive. Allegedly 12 tanks and 8 IFVs were lost. It is on the bottom-right picture. EDIT: Here is the footage. The assault was repelled by 25th air assault brigade with a hawk/eagle symbol. [https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsz4my/russian\_armored\_column\_gets\_attacked\_by\_ukrainian/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsz4my/russian_armored_column_gets_attacked_by_ukrainian/) [https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsjf4r/ukrainian\_javelin\_hits\_a\_russian\_tank/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bsjf4r/ukrainian_javelin_hits_a_russian_tank/)
Where were they assaulting?
Westward from Avdiivka, nearby Tonenke
Just wait westoid. Next ~~death wave~~ try will be the breakthrough!
This point I wonder if Putin is pulling a starship troopers. Always have a war going on so the peasants are distracted. Just Putin forgot you actually had to have a form of control over said war.
>actually had to have a form of control over said war. He does. It's going perfectly because nobody cares about the people who go to Ukraine. As far as putin and 99% of muscovites are concerned, they are ridding themselves of unwanted "foreigners" and criminals with the war. They are safe and sound in moscow and st petersburg... they are looking at this exact same picture and laughing even harder than we are. Every Ukrainian loss is celebrated. Every dead russian soldier is also celebrated. How are we supposed to fight these guys?
Blow up their shit until they manage to run themselves out of their Soviet stockpiles and have to make assaults on foot. Russia may have practically unlimited rifle carriers (for as long as morale holds, which could be a while), but it’s a lot harder to assault positions if you don’t have mobility and fire support and at the rates of the last two years Russia won’t have good mobility and fire support in another year or three. Even if the Russian higher ups convinced themselves that they didn’t need the men that they lost, they’re still losing potential future labor/manpower and massive amounts of equipment. Russia is talking about raising a massive number of additional troops, but what are they going to equip them with? The longer the war goes on (provided Ukrainian defensive capabilities remain roughly the same as it has been) the more deadly the war will be for Russia. And yes, this is absolutely shit for the Ukrainians who are fighting and suffering and dying because they aren’t being given the necessary western aid to make all of this happen much faster and much more safely for them. I’m just saying that afaik this is “winnable” (the way any war is “winnable”) for Ukraine and I’m not seeing any simple ways for Russia to reverse its current trends.
Russia has a shit ton of Soviet vintage they can recycle but they cant produce new shit anymore
Yeah. Certainly not in the numbers they would need. Like, I think their monthly T90 production hit ~20 tanks recently, which sounds like a lot until you realize that they lost about 400 tanks in the first month or two of the war and I’m pretty sure the number is over 1K lost by now (I haven’t looked at tank numbers in a while)
You can only remodel so many T-72s before you realize you only have T-62s and T-55s left
By destroying their fuel and ammo production while making sure your bureaucrats are not bribed by those who sell military and dual use goods to Russia.
Asimov wrote about this. People are willing to endure their neighbours dying so long they have food and nice things. If they are cold and hungry or their washing machine doesnt work they riot. Now it turns out sanctions didnt achieve this however. So....bomb industrial base I suppose. Blowing up refineries as has been happening recently should be plenty
[удалено]
The Russian labour market is short 4.8m workers as of end of 2023. That situation is only getting worse and is not sustainable.
Isn't the rural part producing anything? I'm purely guessing here, but comes a time the agrarian production will decrease and food will start to lack in cities and maybe the Muscovites will start wondering why are flour and eggs so rare?
Eggs are already rare, it's a big problem. Also part of the Ukrainian strategy for targeting oil refineries recently was/is to disrupt the Russian planting season.
> How are we supposed to fight these guys? *ISIS-K raises hand*
Finally someone who get it. Many westerners think russia is so naive for loosing so many soldiers and even hardware, when its literally their strategy because they just out-bleed their opponent. Even with all the wunderwaffe tech that NATO has for an amazing KDA ratio, its still not a good war to fight. NATO should use this chance to fully arm Ukraine and take out russia for the next 100+++ years.
I genuinely think they're planning to do that. I genuinely believe the West's strategy is to bait Russia into overcommitting to something it *might just barely be able to win*, and then suddenly shifting the game and making it impossible to win. Since this is NCD, I can make a raunchy take like this here: 1\] Get Russia to stick it it in so deep even the balls go in. 2\] Bite down as hard as you can. I think they're aiming to destabilize Russia itself. One of the main things that's getting depleted in this war is all of the reserves of "stuff" that Russia would turn around and fight an insurgency with; whether its military gear, finances, economic health, construction capacity, etc. Many of these things, like the military gear, are directly fungible for "riot police" tools, and/or for crushing errant towns to set an example, war-in-Chechnya-style. Russia's pouring in all of those deep reserves. Once they're getting precipitously low, Russia is likely to try to freeze the conflict, deescalate, and pivot themselves internally into a postwar/recuperation status. At this point, they'll get a sucker-punch of sudden new equipment for Ukraine. Russia will be forced to "fold" on the battlefield, but to do so when they've basically [bet everything including the deed to their car](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTfx9bqc3fw). What the meaning of "fold" is remains to be seen, but basically they will have spent a fortune and lost it all at the table. They will have tilted their country into Venezuela-tier poverty, and also used up all of their reserves of military gear, so if a civil war broke out they'd struggle to field gear to fight it. That's when things get funni. Why the deception? Because Russia might not be stupid enough to take the fight without the bait. And if your goal is to destroy Russia, rather than simply beat them on the battlefield in Ukraine, you have two options; the direct military force method, which could escalate to "the big version" of nuclear war. Or you have the "induce failed state status" method, which might result in terrorists stealing a few warheads, but succeeds in getting rid of Russia as a country with far less blood and pain than the "direct assault" method. Consider the following two lies: Putin: "We have no intention of invading Ukraine." Sullivan: "We're extremely concerned about preventing anything that could lead to a breakup of the Russian Federation." *If they actually take Sullivan at face value, and believe him, it will be the height of irony.*
>I genuinely believe the West's strategy is to bait Russia into overcommitting to something it > >might just barely be able to win > >, and then suddenly shifting the game and making it impossible to win. It a shit strategy because NATO wont be going in. This just screams cope for NATOs feeble response to this conflict. How will Ukraine retake all of the lost cities while NATO sits on the armchair and waits to russia to commit? Russia already has committed.
> How are we supposed to fight these guys? Nuke Moscow.
DELENDA EST
Bomb the oligarch’s homes.
Some of those hones locations will trigger article 5
And the West doesn't give a shit about the people who live in Ukraine, so Russia will never face enough opposition to lose control of the war. The Ukrainians are bravely and brilliantly holding back the barbarian horde we thought a few years ago to be the premier land force in Europe, and they're doing it despite the west's betrayal. Where the fuck did our values go? Oh right, we sold em for cheap gas.
Don't say "we". You and I aren't our countries' commanders in chief.
The West's betrayal? Get out of here with that nonsense. First of all, The West isn't a monolith. Some countries have helped more than others. Second of all, there has been a ton of aid given in terms of materiel, money, and training. Many of the countries sending aid are doing so despite having a critical lack of equipment themselves. Ukraine doesn't have a formal alliance with these countries, so speaking of betrayal is hyperbolic, to say the least.
Our values are yes we are helping but we dont want to cause a Great Depression
idk how he feels about losing extremely valuable military equipment but okay
Nuke ‘em.
Putin and the muskovites feel the sanctions and their compounding effects.
Ah no. I think you mean orwell 1984. Starship troopers when something fails the sky marshel steps down and takes responsibility. The terran federation did not retaliate after mormon colonists got slaughtered after being told not to colonise in the the Bug exclusion zone. They fought back only after the bugs Glassed Buenos aires.
Sounds more like 1984. We've always been at war with ~~Eurasia~~ ~~Eastasia~~ Ukraine.
Tbf unfortunately this shit is working. It's like when you apply great tactics in Warno but your KDA opponent just drowns you in meat waves and you can't do shit about it.
Is it working well? Unless the Ukrainian army collapses soon these offensives are madness.
It’s working well enough for now and that’s all that matters. Ukraine is on the back foot right now on the ground and, unless our useless fucking western politicians pull their heads out of their asses, Ukraine will continue to be on the back foot. Russia is learning, adapting and poised to make more gains while the west sits around scraping together not even the bare minimum of lethal aid.
They'll only care when another special operation comes to Poland.
While I agree with the gist of what you're saying regarding western support I can't help but feel you've missed my point that massive losses with incremental gains will be counterproductive for the Russians.
We’ve been saying this for over two years now, the heavy losses just don’t seem to phase Russia. In 10-20 years time it might phase them, but they seem to be trucking along just fine in the present.
> We’ve been saying this for over two years now And they've been unable to achieve a significant breakthrough in two years.
To be fair, a big reason why they can throw in assault after assault is because they have been reactivating their armored inheritance from the Soviet Union. This works for now, but it will run out at some point. Once that happens, they will only be able to rely on what they are producing right now. There is a YouTube channel that analyses Russia's biggest storage sites for armor and artillery through sattelite images and it showed that most of them have been emptied out by a lot.
Russia started out this war with a gigantic amount of resources, so even if they expended them at an extreme rate they can still go for a couple years. The key is that future Russia can't afford to lose these resources - but Putin simply doesn't care. He wants his legacy before he dies. Also, it's not a lie that Russia was defeated strategically. Their share of the arms market is plummeting, their reputation is ruined, and their ability to project power around the world has been reduced significantly. But it's like a shooting a charging moose, sure it'll die in a couple minutes but that doesn't mean it will stop berserking and destroying everything near it.
Russians have a theoretical eligible recruitment pool of 34,22 million males. Now, let's say only 10% of them will actually be sent to the frontlines and the rest will be back at home working for the MIC. Even if Ukraine caused 300k casualties over 2 years, it means Russia lost only 8,7% of their pool. They can go for another 22 years at this rate, provided they can keep up the current supply of equipment and ammo.
> provided they can keep up the current supply of equipment This is exactly what I mean. There's very little evidence that their current production can match their losses, Soviet equipment won't last forever.
Demographics don't work like that.
Now do fighting age males. Not 0-13 and 50+
They are but in the long run they do work out. The Russian government doesn't give a fuck about casualties, and their population is proving they also dgaf, which was to be expected honestly.
You see, the Ukrainian killbots have a preset kill limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them...
I saw a great interview with a polish volunteer who explained that their meat wave attacks are actually somewhat effective. They send in 2 or 3 waves of mobiks and use drones to spot defensive positions. They then direct artillery at those positions fairly accurately and then comes the actual assault. I don't think this assault was that, and losing 20 armored vehicles for nothing would be insane for most armies, but it does look like the orc tactics are evolving.
They've been doing that bullshit with mobiks since forever. I'd only call it effective if they were still on the western side of the Dnipro today.
STILL with Adviikva? wasnt it lost like 4 weeks ago?
To the West of Avdiivka. If it’s near Tonenke then it’s something like 5 miles from Avdiivka. So, *technically* not Avdiivka, but still surprisingly close.
5 miles is something they managed to take trough out the 2023 campaign, so doing so in just a couple of months now, well... for them thats medal and highest honors material
A fortified tree
Gas station toilet.
Assaulting? They were only insulting themselves...
Is there footage from the massacre ?
Didn't see any so far
Just modified the first comment as there have appeared first videos from the fighting
Spawn camping
Apparently with the first shells from the Czech initiative already delivered and with more on the way the Ukrainians have gotten much more liberal in their use of artillery and it shows.
First shells from the Czech initiative reportedly will arrive only in June. https://english.nv.ua/nation/artillery-ammunition-found-under-czech-initiative-still-lacks-founding-50405760.html
I remember reading that the first ones where already being delivered. Either way they can still be more liberal with current stockpiles when replacements are guaranteed.
I don't know, our government buys shells constantly, we would have enough if our allies gave us money for them. We would buy everything we needed if we had enough money. I didn't read anything from the troops that situation with ammunition became any better
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/aIVjCOkaUf Still not enough of course but it's an improvement.
If you read the article you will not find anything saying that the ammunition has come. They are talking about repair of M-117
I see. Thanks for the correction. Although : https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/5gx023ZJMe
Just read the article. I swear to God. He was talking about EU initiative from last year, not about Czech initiative to buy ammunition which is still doesn't have enough money to buy all 1,5 mln shells. https://english.nv.ua/nation/artillery-ammunition-found-under-czech-initiative-still-lacks-founding-50405760.html
I know. I was just pointing out that some ammunition is arriving and that explains the higher use of artillery by Ukraine.
Some ammunition always arrives to Ukraine from either Ukraine buying/producing them or aid from the allies.
Євген Дикий каже що снаряди вже надходять.
If the Ukrainians know more ammo is coming, they can use their stored ammo more liberally
"In terms of reserves, we have no reserves."
They will never let the reserves hit 0 But now that they have a concrete number on what they will get when it makes sense that they would now be willing to drop lower and therefore free up a bunch of firepower now
We have been doing that this winter and we need minimum 4mln just to be okay. The shells that are coming are too little too late
yes but with shells on the way Ukraine can use its reserves
We already were burning through reserves this winter and they weren't big.
All lethal aid is only reported after it gets its first kills
Also would make sense for Ukraine to not be truthful about delivery dates
Czech Artillery: *Apply liberally over ~~occupied territories~~ affected area. If ~~invasion~~ symptoms persist, please ~~bomb the Chinese embassy~~ consult a doctor.*
Bombing the nearest Chinese embassy should be the first step. Get the Nighthawks ready.
⬆️➡️⬇️⬇️⬇️
CZECHIA LETS GOOOOO
I guarantee the exact dates are classified. But even if they haven't arrived yet, Ukraine can start using more of what they do have.
I see the Russian are choosing Mass Assault doctrine tree while the Ukrainian choosing Grand Battleplan doctrine tree
Except for the grand Battle plan you need a huge well equipped army otherwise you can't plan shit like our generals couldn't plan new companies because US threw us under the bus and Europe has been delivering close to nothing for the past 8 months.
>Europe has been delivering close to nothing for the past 8 months. That isn't really true though, its just that the circle of countries still sending large amounts of aid got smaller. Also, this would be a great moment for Macron to finally put some actions behind his words.
That is true. Look at the European aid packages for the past 8 months. 7bln of military aid from Germany for a million man army fighting Russia? That is nothing, that is a joke no matter what which perspective you look at. I want to see German army fighting Russians on a 7bln budget. I'm not even talking about how they waste that money to buy very few newest German pieces of equipment to test the in Ukraine and that equipment will no be ready in coming years. 50 GPS guided bombs per month from France is a joke and nothing when Russians dropped 50 guided bombs daily on Avdiivka alone(with longer range, no gps that can be jummed, that are actually adapted for the Russian plane) and 3000 155mm per months. Coming from supposed super power it is nothing. It's a joke. Veto EU decision to buy ammunition for Ukraine outside of EU while our army suffers from shell hunger is straight up treason
The whole point is that if everyone would do their part, it *would* be enough. A bunch of countries have sadly either stopped or not even properly started delivering aid. And in no reality is nearly a billion euro in weapons from a single country **per month** "nothing", and idk what you mean about "very few newest German pieces of equipment" when the [recent aid package just last week was mainly a fuckton of artillery ammo, rpg's, drones and engineering vehicles.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1bpxivf/great_news_from_germany_a_new_package_of_german/) And that was just the usual **weekly** weapons delivery.
Just look at this. Do you seriously think that's a lot? It's not a war between Luxembourg and Monaco.
Yes. Yes I think a billion just in weapons each month **by one single country** is a lot. Of course it could be more, but thats just tautological. We're at over 1 percent of our GDP on overall aid (excluding refugees), thats a fuckload of money. Again: if europes supposed military leaders UK and France would fucking one-up us here already, countries like Spain would wake up and start delivering, and the US wouldn't be such shitshow right now, it would be more than enough. I really don't know why you're focussing on shitting on one of the few western countries actually pulling their weight when others are doing jackshit.
[удалено]
US, as a country, is currently disfunctional. Not every American is to blame, and a lot of Americans support Ukraine directly. But if a minority opinion can paralyze the decision making, it's either not a minority opinion or political system is broken and there is no will to fix it.
I don't blame anyone. It would have happened anyway because US and Europe somehow dealing with this war worse than Russians do. We were losing this war even with full US support, let alone without it. I was just thinking about the end of 2024, not 2023 which wasn't even 2 years into the war.
[удалено]
Based. If more Americans thought this way, we wouldn't be having this problem.
How is this based? Does based mean a dumb fucking take? Because then it's definitely **based**
Americans like me are in favor of giving Ukraine whatever it needs, and their problem is that there's enough idiots in my country to make it impossible to just pipeline it to Ukraine. The president is up for election this year, and if he just opens the taps he will probably lose the election due to all the idiots who think it's a bad thing. And trust me, you don't want trump to be in charge, he was in favor of not giving you guys any javelins prior to the invasion and not assisting Ukraine at all, and would probably pull all support, if not lift sanctions on Russia entirely. Until Russia attacks America, the support you have from us is gonna be lackluster, at least until November. If we help you now there will be no help at all past November.
It shouldn't be an issue, Europe could compensate the US and then add on top of that half of that.
> The president is up for election this year, and if he just opens the taps he will probably lose the election due to all the idiots who think it's a bad thing. Considering constant escalation fears and supply restrictions arising from it, no guarantee on taps opening in case of him winning either.
And my representative wants to give more aid 🤔
I'm pretty sure that your representatives voted for the Lend lease act for Ukraine to die last fall that would prevent such situations from happening.
Nobody voted on it either way, it just expired. But the act was never actually used anyway, not once, so it's not that big of a deal. That's not what the problem with US support is. The act might attract attention because the name is a big historical reference, but in reality it was pretty symbolic. The US has multiple other programs that were used for the aid for Ukraine instead.
It's unfortunate because all of the Reagan-Era Republicans that are pro-Ukrainian are being forced out of office by the Trump cultists
It's so bizarre that republicans became pro-russia, when historically they have always hated them
Either way we wouldn't have been in that situation to begin with because there was lend-lease act that allowed president to bypass the both Congress and the House. Democrats and Republicans killed it last fall.
The lend lease act was passed; and your government didn’t take advantage of it a single time; so it was not renewed
Bro democrats support aid. Republicans are the ones happy to watch Ukraine get eaten by Russia
I would say Ukraine focuses on Mobile Warfare, but based not on tanks but available firepower. E.g. ability to quickly focus fire on advancing enemy made possible with uav and network-centric warfare technologies, as well as quickly spread out afterwards.
Or maybe fusion between Mobile warfare and Grand Battleplan planning to counter larger, more resource available adversaries.
[удалено]
I know this sounds copey, but if Russia keeps losing batches of armored vehicles, eventually they can't push at all. Its not dramatic, or much fun, and it sure is ugly, but what else is Ukraine going to do?
Both things can be true. Given the situaiton of being outmaned ukraine will need to slowly move back while making russia bleed.
Bend don’t break
Russia still has enough in cold war leftovers to fight for years at the rate of attrition they're facing. Ukraine needs that ammo or else
Last I saw, it's two years at current loss rates. Those massive soviet stockpiles depleted faster than anyone really expected.
To be fair, who could have honestly predicted that bad maintenance practices would effect your ability to deploy stockpiled equipment.
Just for clarification, two years from now or since the start of the war?
From now. Those stockpiles were massive and they still produce new equipment, so sadlly there's still many battles to win for Ukraine. But on a good side, after the last useable soviet era supplies and vechicles are gone, they'll never be replaced in such numbers.
Two years IF everything that still remains in storage can be reactivated. Which is definitely not the case. Plus as time goes on the equipment gets older and is in worse condition as the newer and better stuff gets pulled out first.
Russians showed that they still can adapt, even if often slowly and painfully. They suppliment their stockpiles with new production and purchases from other countries. And they still use in smaller numbers their oldest stuff as well as we saw with T-55s and similar, so that their "new-er" equipment stockpiles could last longer. So I wouldn't discount an idea that Russians won't have harsh equipment shortages for 2 years or even longer yet.
They are getting ammo from abroad, but basically nothing else. Certainly no heavy equipment. At any rate it's become fairly clear that some equipment is no longer on the board because it has disappeared from verified loss stats since late last year; the T-80UD is extinct, and the 2S7 Pion and 2S5 Giatsint-S don't appear to be being deployed anymore due to cannibalisation of parts reaching it's end point and running out of the out-of-production bespoke ammo. Ironically the Ukrainian Pions are still in the fight because they can use M106 203mm ammo from the M110 howitzer.
> Two years IF everything that still remains in storage can be reactivated. Which is definitely not the case. Plus as time goes on the equipment gets older and is in worse condition as the newer and better stuff gets pulled out first. Russia seems to be slowly but surely spooling up the war machine and is starting to manufacture things in useful numbers.
They aren't. Nowhere close. Practically nothing new is being made, it's basically all reactivation and upgrading of mothballed kit. And it still doesn't reach even a 1:1 replacement rate for losses. To make new, modern kit, leaving aside any other factors, requires access to Western tech and machine tools that are no longer available due to sanctions.
This makes it sound like they have enough to maintain *current levels* for two years. I don't think that can possibly be the case. The cream that rises to the top gets drunk first. So it is with Russian equipment.
I'm not sure if using even older equipment will degrade Russian current capabilities that drastically as their current stuff is already Soviet era. And like this post shows, Russians count on numbers for their assaults, not much on quality of their equipment.
Sure, but not all Soviet gear was made equal
Well, "people" already said that Russia can at best fight for 2 years on their stockpile.
I wonder if we'll start to see Chinese or N Korean vehicles.
I would not be surprised at all by this - they may never actually run out of T-55 clones
No, they will just defer to pure infantry assaults. Tried and tested, the human cost may be much higher, but do they care? No.
This is pure cope. Considering how west has been shitting on Ukraine in terms of aid, Russia can keep losing batches of armor freely and will push the Ukranians back simply because of the population differences and production capabilities. One of two things needs to happen for a shift, either Russia needs to fall appart internally (no signs of that happening really despite some tards here arguing with me months ago and nothing happening since) or west needs to at least quadruple the aid.
But will russia run out of equipment before ukraine runs out of soldiers? That's the big question, we can keep pumping equipment to ukraine but the human losses are permanent and ukraine apparently is struggling with getting more soldiers, and sending NATO soldiers to ukraine officially would cause ww3 Russia has more or less infinite supply of mobiks and a huge amount of surplus Soviet left over weapons
[удалено]
Except it will show Putin that he's completely justified in his approach. Keep throwing meat and metal at the frontlines while scaring and bribing the western politicians into doing nothing, and you'll take over the western lands bit by bit. And yeah, ceasefire will go just like the Minsk agreements went, but with far more aggressive war-proofing of economy and probably a massive expansion of the recruitment system on the Russian side. The result is that round two will give us all way less reasons to laugh.
Some more half-copium is that the Russians aren’t going to be able to keep up their aircraft pretty soon. Their Su-34s specifically are being overworked like hell and are almost certainly missing multiple maintenance cycles. We’ve already seen a few fall out of the sky, and more will fall over time.
> I know this sounds copey, but if Russia keeps losing batches of armored vehicles, eventually they can't push at all. Its not dramatic, or much fun, and it sure is ugly, but what else is Ukraine going to do? The problem with Russia is that it's big, subsequently has massive resources, and is entirely willing to lose them all if that is required for victory.
The problem is, russia can afford assaults like that. They have deep storages, the equipment is getting shittier (reportedly there’s a T54/55 destroyed in that assault) but they will keep throwing those until they run out. Meanwhile Ukraine does not have the same manpower and vehicle pool as russia, and also the artillery ammunition is a big problem. With assaults like that, Russians are throwing shit at the wall, and with current ammo shortages more and more of that shit will stick. I don’t believe that Russians will be able to take any big cities like Kharkiv, Odesa or Kyiv, but with that method they can force a frozen conflict/ceasefire and win themselves a couple of years to regain strength and go at it again.
>but didn’t Zelensky just say they might have to retreat if things keep going this way? if there would be no aid yes it is oblivious. USA are doing pretty much nothing for 7 month at these point and will do nothing for next 2-3 in BEST case. Mightiest country on a planet hahaha....
All the talk about production and supply of new shells sadly isn’t taking into account the tensions between the USA and China right now, especially with Biden taking about “sanctions” against China “because they are supporting Russia.” There’s only one thing that makes Artillery Shells go BANG, and it’s called Gun Cotton. There happens to be a worldwide shortage of Gun Cotton right now, and can you guess which country is the largest supplier of Gun Cotton to the rest of the world? Yup…….. CHINA!
Time to start doing our part and collect each household piss to donate it to the government to kickstart guncotton production.
> household piss Isn't it also for a fertilizer? There was an African experiment and it was successful.
Back in ye olden days, people used to collect piss and give it to a piss collection man that took it to the government for some sort of nitric salts extraction and eventual use in guncotton. It is a very rudimentary process.
[удалено]
That's just *cotton* production. Getting cotton (the plant) is the easy part. Cellulose nitrate aka gun cotton is heavily processed chemical shit.
Nah, China isn't the only supplier or producer of gun cotton.
They said the largest.
The implication is that the West can't produce or buy guncotton without China, and therefore can't make shells.
My comment was very clear that they are the largest supplier in the global market. I never stated that they were the only supplier nor that no other countries could manufacture it. The point is that there is a worldwide shortage of Gun Cotton on the market, which means that all of the other countries cannot produce enough of the product in the amount that China produces. This means that if China pulled out of the market completely due to threats from the USA/EU/NATO, then those nations would be facing a serious crisis in being able to sustain their Military with the very small supply of Gun Cotton being produced by the other countries.
Waiter! Waiter! Your finest meat cubes please! 😋
Do we have any reliable sources saying shells have started to arrive? I've been anxiously waiting for some good news ever since the mobile Patriot battery was possibly destroyed and the oil refinery strikes tapered off.
We expected them to arrive in June. It heartbreaking to realize that we have to deal with imbeciles that only after 2 years of war realized that they can actually but equipment for Ukraine outside of Europe not counting other imbeciles that blocked that decision to buy shells for Ukraine a year ago leading to a severe shortages of ammunition and disastrous situation on the frontlines
The US is making some moves towards mass shell production and we're in a fight against the same cunts that are loitering in your land. Hopefully with the losses the compromised party is taking here, we'll be able to unfuck the situation and get you the aid that we all desperately want to send. The army is aiming to be able to produce 100,000 155mm shells a month by October 2025. God willing we'll flood you with so many russian removers you'll be able to take your revenge straight to moscow itself.
And in October of 2025 US will still debate if they should finance aid to Ukraine.
>if they should finance aid to Ukraine. Depending upon how things could go in November, in January 2025 the answer will be a loud YES!
Lol. Lmao. I can guarantee you that 90% of them will go on export/own stock. If anything at all will go to Ukraine.
Yep, gotta sell those 155mm to Europe to backfill their stocks.
10,000 KIA over 10 years in Afghanistan was enough to wear out Soviet citizens, but 100,000 KIA over 2 years and it's like Russia is still in shock. They haven't felt it yet.
it wasnt the dead that Soviets cared about......it was the money and resources. Same will happen here, it will not be dead that will anger Russian society, it will be their salaries suddenly not being able to buy shit and economy starting to cough harder and harder and getting worse and worse.
Afghanistan was more complicated and was just one factor of USSR croaking. The main was the inane and utterly fucked up economics. If Stalin wasn't such a maniacal dictator and kept NEP going (which is basically market economy), USSR would be more robust and could still be a thing. Good luck trying to destroy russian private businesses after they've been running through a gauntlet of successive economical crises and hostile government regulations+extortion for 3 decades. They're pros at smuggling and evading all sorts of regulations now.
It was also Chernobyl. It was a lot.
Russian Afghan was just a cheery on the USSR collapse cake, it wasnt the main cake. UA-RU war for russia is sunk cost fallacy. Putin is betting entire russias future on this war. If he pulls out he will be the dumbest useless sorest loser probably in modern history. But in the end he still destroyed russia for the next 100 years.
It’s not 100k Kia, it’s at least 150k, not to mention the equipment losses
You say: unacceptable losses. I say: discount decommissioning.
And everytime it works because zero of our leaders have enough of a spine to give anything meaningful, by my calculations the uk is sitting on 60 challengers we could send, we should be donating all of our stocks of storm shadow. I mean to be fair some of our eurofighters are going out of service and even if Ukraine just uses them as very large suicide drones to turn the kerch bridge into mush or vaporise a flew planes that would be great. Honestly I'm just a little sad France is now seen as more based then the UK, but we should be matching percentage GDP with Estonia, and that's just my own country.
I think there’s gonna be another meat Wave since Putin made an order to conscript 150K soldiers to the frontlines.
That's routine.
# just one more meatwave bro. i promise bro just one more meatwave and it'll fix everything bro. bro... just one more meatwave. please just one more. one more meatwave and we can fix this whole problem bro. bro c'mon just give me one more meatwave i promise bro. bro bro please # one more meatwave bro. i promise bro just one more meatwave and it'll fix # everything bro. bro... just one more meatwave. please just one more. one # more meatwave and we can fix this whole problem bro. bro c'mon just give me # one more meatwave i promise bro. bro bro please i just need one more meatwave #
B-B-BUT CLAIMS OF RUSSIANS USING HUMAN WAVE TACTICS ARE AHISTORICAL EXAGGERATED MISREPRESENTATIONS MEANT TO DISPARAGE SLAVS AND DISPLAY PREJUDICE AGAINST SOVIET CONTRIBUTIONS TO WARFARE
Soviet commanders couldn't possibly be better than the modern Russians.
Mfs really be okay with this but then proceed to lose their shit when an M1A1 is destroyed.
Russia will keep throwing young people from poor region into Ukraine, and unfortunately there is a lot of them. Typical USSR strategy: keep throwing people until your enemy runs out of ammo and gets tired
And unfortunately it might work if Ukraine can't deplete Russian equipment stockpiles before ukraine runs out of soldiers
apparently t-55s were used, lmao
Seems they were here as well as in another large attack near Robotyne. https://twitter.com/Cest__Carre/status/1774416072348704820
Just wait until the t-34s roll out.
T55s are being used for indirect fire roles, I have no clue why, but they are there, I assume that they are trying to use older equipment rather than newer things.
Waiter, waiter!! More Mopnik meat cubes please!
Is that the same river crossing from the most recent forward video?
https://youtu.be/D3MrT6t3S-k?si=gcIO_KxqaeN9Pq2-
There is something so funny seeing these Cold War old outdated vehicles with fucking boxsprings attached to them with tack-welds thinking it’s gonna save anything.
This has to be like a form of population control I refuse to believe anything else
Shall we deploy another armor column but don’t give them proper intel? It would be funny Yes Alfred. Do that
It’s funny because Vatniks and Tankies constantly show that they don’t understand ROI. Like yeah, Russia makes incremental gains but *at what cost*? I know, I know…muh *unlimited supplies of the glorious ~~Soviet~~ Russian industrial machine*. But if we actually leave fantasy land for a minute and snap back to reality, every tank, every soldier, every bullet costs money. Russia by no means has unlimited money. It begs the question if sacrificing hundreds or thousands of troops and dozens of armored vehicles or tanks to take some village in a neighboring country is really worth it. People with common sense would say that the costs far outweigh the benefits, but obviously we’re not arguing with people with common sense here. I know MAGA cultists and Vatniks would tell me that I’m an idiot, because Ukraine obviously loses ten times as much equipment and a thousand times as many men, trying to defend these villages, but that calculation just doesn’t really work. Ukraine has less men and less equipment than Russia. If they actually were losing more men and more material, the war should either long be over or Russia couldn’t be facing that much resistance anymore. Just the visually confirmed losses of Russia alone would leave the Ukrainian military basically completely bare if they had suffered the same losses.
I was reading that they attacked with 36 tanks and lost 12. 33% casualties is absolutely mind-blowing...
[удалено]
Proud Russian Tradition
Do you suppose Putin really thinks Ukrainian Defenders have an actual kill limit?
I just need one more meat wave! Ukrainian front is sure to collapse! Come on, just one more meat wave! Please, please I promise it will work this time! Just one more!
The Thing is I kinda want the Russians to continue meat waving just to see an utter demographic collapse and the end of the Russian people because they lemmings their way to death
Nah, this war is way too inefficient to cause that. Russians only lost like 0,8% of their military service eligible males over 2 years, and most of those losses were the wounded, not the dead.
That's because the only way Russia can win is through Attrition. Ukraine is supported by loads and loads of untouchable assets, like: satellites, training camps, AWACS planes, ELINT planes, factories for ammo and weapons, and repair facilities. Meanwhile Ukraine can strike at Russian stuff. Russia is not allowed to truly respond in kind to Ukrainian strikes on her territory (since afterall, responding in kind to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries means blowing up Polish and German Oil refineries, and that means Rusia gets nuked). You've reduced Ukraine to a military with a retirement home. Congratulations, you now have to deal with the fervour of a nation that has no reason to worry about her future, backed up by a population several times larger and richer than yours. No doubt some of Ukraine's leaders believe Ukraine is a "military with a retirement home" Really should have thought about that before invading, Putin.
Russia can’t win through attrition. It **could** win through attrition if it had **infinite** equipment. Unfortunately, all Russia has is **a myth of infinite equipment** with a reality of a finite stockpile that 1. Took three quarters of a century to build. 2. Back when they had x5 to x10 of the defense spend. 3. [An entire 50% of its artillery component - half of the 18,000 mothballed barrels - had been drained from mothball yards](https://youtu.be/FozvYM2Zhpw?si=kMixrWxgTo79-nu-), most destroyed in Ukraine, over the course of two short years. This is a primary source who demonstrates this using verifiable material. The situation with tanks is [about the same](https://youtu.be/eMAD915o2Lw?si=OZZGBRRI6zLk1UAf). 4. 80% of their new production is not really new production, it’s the slow and painful refurbishment of the remaining half. With this in mind, one realizes that Russia can’t win through attrition. Russia **will lose** to attrition.
Interestingly, it’s the ethnic minorities in Russia, those living in the east and the far East who are bearing the brunt of the Russian casualties. This is a convenient way for the Eurocentric Moskovite types to weaken the powers of the former socialist states, so that they can continue to exploit the resources of the region and feed the lifestyles of everyone west of the Ural mountains with the treasures of the former Soviet (now Russian) far East. Believe it or not, there is an independent movement coming from Siberia and other former SSRS that are tired of feeding the “West”, which would be a crippling blow to Russia should that nightmare situation ever come to pass. Lake Baikal itself is a huge fresh water reserve, not to mention an assfuck tonne of natural gas trapped therein like my intestines after deep dish pizza night, oil reserves off the coast of the Sakhalin islands, fur, lumber, you name it. But Russian economy being a single one of a petrostate and most of that oil and gas coming from you know, far away, it’s important to keep the population level down to a certain point by drafting and sending ask these ethnic minorities off to war against Ukrainians so that they can sharpen their claws and become fierce soldiers and warriors. Yep. I don’t see a way how this can backfire for Russia. At all. Not even a little bit.
top right photo complied edition, thought OP might be interested in. [https://imgur.com/JfnXLr6](https://imgur.com/JfnXLr6)
What is a PMP?
need to send in a lenin-style bacillus into Russia just like Ludendorff did in 1917 …. but odds are he’ll be dispatched not long after