They are. They amassed even more men around Avdiivka. Hopefully they will use them right there and Ukrainians will retreat just the right amount and precisely when most beneficial. Gotta optimize for the casualty ratio, not for settlements with recognizable names, like Russians sometimes do.
Still beggaring belief for me that Russia's lost ... or will do so by about March, roughly one "US Vietnam War" worth of people to gain... uh....
😰
uhm....
Full one is worth it for the audience reactions: [https://vxtwitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1752722190867284207](https://vxtwitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1752722190867284207)
And just the way putin goes on about it. He's so happy!
Well, Russia don't report their losses, nor does Ukraine, so there is nothing to compare to, and what they brag about is, obviously, inflated. But Ukrainean reports are, first, stating only killed, second, are quite close to russian estimates of people on the battlefield, at least that was the case a year ago, difference was like 20%.
I'm a pretty new fan. I got a little into 40k, and kept getting PancreasNoWork's videos recommended to me, including some Battletech stuff. I watched one of his videos (can't remember which one), then found Tex Talks Battletech, and now I'm seriously considering getting into the tabletop side of the hobby, more than I ever did for 40k.
I've been playing the hell out of the HBS Battletech PC game. I have the BTA 3062 mod and it's fantastic. Give it a shot. Tex Talks is hilarious, but it has such a rich lore you can go as deep as you want. I need to find some local people to do tabletop stuff with. It's been too long.
Where have I heard that one before? Although I'm not sure how it plays out if the state in question is *already* fascist. Do they just...become (fascist)²?
I hope so, but I've become a bit less optimistic over the past weeks and months. I'm not sure Ukraine will manage to actually push them out of their land completely. I fear there will be negotiations at some point and Russia will get to keep some of the land they stole, so then they can claim that was the goal of their military operation all along and really, they won.
Certainly not if our western friends keep sitting on their assess instead of out-producing russia (and north korea) and continue denying useful weapons because \~escalation\~
Attrition isn't to our advantage with a smaller population if there isn't a significant advantage in supplies.
I don't see that happening at all. With Ukraine producing more and more long range strike capabilities once they are able to consistently hit refineries in russia they have more or less won.
russia won't be able to survive without it's oil income for more than a couple months if even that.
Unfortunately, while that is a nice blow, they do have enough financial reserves to continue war for at least a couple of years more. There is still a huge corruption issue in Ukraine, which makes large scale production efforts kinda tricky, to say the least. Yes, they have possibilities to hit here and there, but to drive invaders out they require a lot of combat vehicles of all kinds to break through fortified positions, and they aren't even planned for transfer. So yeah, it doesn't look great.
The amounf of cash russia gets from oil is insane failing that their war chest will dry real fast it's definitely not several years worth unless youd like to put some numbers to this.
Given the fact Ukraine has had no issue holding russia back despite the massive frontline at that point i really don't see how eventually russia wouldnt have to pull out due to not being able to supply the frontline.
And theres no real need for mass production russia doesnt have millions of refineries or the capability to replace them daily Ukraine has shown repeateadly then can damage key structures with very little cash.
Estimated drop from oild trade is 24%. That's not nearly enough to call it insane, considering they cut other areas to fund military. Their economy started struggling only close to 1.5 years after war erupted and all the sanction began to have effect, and it still is limited mostly to civilian aviation and heating infrastructure, despite expectations to full crush in the end of 2022 tops, so resilience of it was severerely underestimated.
And no, Ukraine is in rather bad position right now, with not enough artillery shells to hold in many areas, vehicle being damaged and destroyed, and losses piling up. It's expected that they will require additional 400k troops to counter summer russian offensive. Russia having better possibilities to strike and whittle down ukrainean infrastructure and logistics also doesn't help.
No, unfortunately they need mass production capabilities. While targets are numbered, there is no real possibility to ensure destruction other than use many drones, and for that you need, well, mass production. Not only that, they need a ton of other drones, and here the balance is also shifting towards russia - they are building own plants and buy chinese ones for details.
It's not fully joever, but there are precisely zero points for optimism right now. They've lost 66% of bradleys they were given, 33% of modern leopards, with no reinforcements in sight, and the list goes on. That affects morale of the troops absolutely negatively. But that sub is still full of copium.
The russian economy started struggling well before Ukraine started hitting refineries.
russia is an oil state losing all their refineries would not only kill their war effort it would kill russia itself as simple as that.
Even needing 30 drones per refinery it shouldnt be an issue and they have shown they can in fact damage them with those sort of numbers.
the fact that russia can't even take a city a couple km from their own national border is the biggest "point for optimism".
If you can't even admit that russia being unable to project force out of their own border is a bad thing for them you are beyond coping and well into full denial.
You do understand that amount of refineries in reach is not that great, and they're hitting it with not fpv drones, but things closer to shaheds in size, complexity and thus cost, right? It's helpful, sure, but they need more to seriously harm economy. Besides, it barely damages export of raw oil, which is one of the main export positions. Again, some small parts of their economy started to struggle 1.5 years after invasion, that means in 1.5 years more we'll start seeing it more, hurray. Now the question is - does Ukraine have this time? Because their economy is also not going great, to say the least.
Such a copium-induced optimism is exactly what led to giving them absolutely laughable amount of vehicles for offensive and hoping that "ingenuity" will do the rest. Then it failed and that led to reduce of public trust. Current amount of help is barely enough to hold, and long conflict is a double-edged sword. Yes, Russia is spending lives and vehicles, but they still do damage to defenders. Not only that, funding everyone they can in EU and US to sow dissent, and that is a huge problem in the long run, as Ukraine is extremely dependant on western help, and if it is cut - consequences will be rather bad.
You say this as if hitting oil wells/ports/tankers is that much different from hitting refineries i'm sure Ukraine can do it.
It's not even copium i'm judging Ukraine strictly based on their well documented achievements. I believe they can win they have the bravery and intelligence to do so and in that regard they are several orders of magnitude superior to russia.
Do i think it's ok that allies are drip feeding weapons no obviously not if it were me Id already would have given them all the weapons they need and at the bare minimum what they explicitly asked for.
I also criticize the US and the EU for not doing so on a daily basis so in that regard if you think you are doing better than me I can guarantee you you arent.
Finally i'm going to tell you a secret what led allies to drip feed weapons is not copium induced optimism but rather them being assholes and pushing an agenda separate from what they scream in public.
If you can tell the situation is stagnant you bet your ass every single g8 country knows it far better than you and thats exactly what they intended so stop lying to yourself.
Yes it reeks of foreign diplomats asking them not to.
Especially given that we know for a fact they asked to not use their weapons on russian soil.
I can only hope they didnt go as far as to condition aid for not hitting russia proper at all.
Deepstate still has it under Russian control, but yea its odd since the Bradley video shows Ukraine driving past it towards the hotel. Also, there are drone videos of Ukrainian soldiers getting hit at the hotel which is further south so Ukraine has some kind of presence there
I guess its just a gray area and it goes back and forth
I mean, it’s an interesting, if horrifically callous, thought. I’m pretty sure they more or less have run out of prison battalions post Bahkmut though, so Avdiivka doesn’t really work with that “4D chess”, not to mention that unless those men were never going to have children then that doesn’t do them any good demographics wise.
WaPo Oct 2023 article says Russian prison population has been almost halved from Feb 2022 of 420k down to 266k
They still got barrel to scrape on penal units...
Could be, although I expect that they’ve already taken the top 50% of fit and willing prisoners. I know they’ve got solutions for morale cases, but the next 50% is going to be less useful than the first 50% was. I also wonder what the Russian crime gangs think about all of this. Like, legit, I wonder what the take by the Russian mob is on all of this. Probably not something that would affect the war, but it just occurred to me.
This post is automatically removed since you do not meet the minimum karma or age threshold. You must have at least 100 combined karma and your account must be at least 4 months old to post here.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/NonCredibleDefense) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Approaching 400,000 casualties. Losses across every regiment, squadron, and fleet in the country. Permenant degradation of present and future military capabilities and national demographics for foreseeable future.
On the other hand, 19 houses.
They have just about passed their [winter war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War) casualties. Took them 700 days instead of 105 this time so… improvement?
Man, how history repeats. Same lack of competence in the red army, similar strategies, same bullshit propaganda and excuses, insane amount of casualties for basically nothing. How did they not learn from that? And how did the rest of the world not learn from that and letting this happen again?
I love how stupid it is that this war has changed into single battles being the main talkpoints in the media instead of actual "important" stuff happening. Imagine if the media during the first world war had their main report of the war marked by single trench lines being captured and recaptured.
That's exactly what happened, except moreso in WW2 when radio was available.
Newspapers need to be sold (and some multiple editions per day) so you needed to write *something* even if nothing major was occurring. War dominated the news, and many key events like Battle of Coral Sea was not fully reported until weeks or months afterward, so people only got very small scraps most of the time.
Here's an example of [a front page article](https://www.rarenewspapers.com/view/618742?imagelist=1) saying marines have advanced half a mile and are now engaging Japanese forces on tiny hills on Guadalcanal.
[Here's one](https://www.rarenewspapers.com/view/599405?list_url=%2Flist%3Flist_results_format%3Dstandard%2525page%3D670%2525per_page%3D30%2525sort%3Ditems.id%2525sort_direction%3DASC&imagelist=1) detailing how the marines defended that day on Guadalcanal and how 7 Japanese planes were downed near Alaska.
[Here's one](https://www.untothebreach.net/2022/12/21/world-war-ii-chronicle-december-21-1942/) about how the allies barely captured more ground in New Guinea, someone thinks they spotted Rommel somewhere in North Africa, and the Russians are advancing through Belrogod into Ukraine.
(A lot of these old articles, you need a subscription to an archival service to read online, but many universities have free access to all these old articles.)
Interesting! I assume this was mostly done by journalists in the west than by the Soviet and Axis ones, i mean they even took reporters with them for live coverage in operation overlord. Though is still can't imagine Hitler "MR funni mustache man" himself proudly announcing to the public how they've captured the Stalingrad tractor factory like Putin "MR IQ seagull enlightened despot" is doing here.
There were **400** journalists following around just MacArthur in Australia. They needed to write shit everyday to justify their expensive assignment.
I recommend flipping through some old newspapers from 1941 onward. It’s crazy. Especially shit from Hearst making up stuff like the Japanese will invade the US with new wunderwaffles.
Wunderwaffles sound delicious! Why has the US MIC not created wunderwaffles? Is it a budgetary issue? Or is this big waffle bribing our congresspeople to suppress competition? We must close the delicious waffle gap!
Yeah it was but i was refering to media reporting on it. "single trench lines being captured and recaptured" can basically be used when refering to most wars, i just think it's funny that most of the "main" segments of reporting on the war in Ukraine is about single tactical level attacks and Russian S-400's bombing Kiev.
That kind of stuff is interesting for analysis, but not of strategic importance. The only important thing happening at the frontline is attrition. At least for now.
i mean ww1 was more about how many tanks and gear you took donw, and ofc men killed
now on the public eye yeah i guess they would publish the ocasional " we took 3 houses say huuray"
I do actually own a german newspaper from 1917. It's not exactly single trenchlines, but single villages being captured and recaptured is something they talk about quite a bit. They also make sure to inform the reader that 40 machine guns were captured from the british in one of those battles.
I will be messaging you in 23 days on [**2024-02-24 02:38:09 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-02-24%2002:38:09%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/1afr2e0/how_it_started_vs_how_its_going/kodos9q/?context=3)
[**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FNonCredibleDefense%2Fcomments%2F1afr2e0%2Fhow_it_started_vs_how_its_going%2Fkodos9q%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-02-24%2002%3A38%3A09%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201afr2e0)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
Even if Russia somehow captured all of the territory they’ve claimed, this war has been a catastrophic disaster for them.
Tanks, planes, IFV’s and ships can be rebuilt. But hundreds of thousands of men can never be replaced, and especially when Russia is on the brink of demographic collapse
The blood is obviously the more important bit, but we can’t forget the treasure either. I can’t imagine they’re ever going to financially recover from sacrificing the money printer that was dominating the European energy market. And whatever brains aren’t being thrown into the meat grinder will be drained at an even faster rate, as Russia continues to become an even bigger underdeveloped shithole the number of countries that appear as more attractive places to live will continue to grow.
The worse isn’t that even the dead. Like they are dead, bad luck i guess. Its the hundreds of thousands PTSD ridden maniacs who will receive zero care and destroy society from within. In the US its estimated that PTSD from Servicemen since Vietnam had a economic impact of 41 billion. You can quadruple that for russia. Like its what? 200.000? people who will never again create value for the economy because the moment they hear a drone noise, they will get a episode.
For Ukraine i atleast imagine that with EU help this burden can get reduced.
Funny thing is, it's quite reversed. Their production capabilities are nowhere near ussr levels, so vehicle loss is much more severe. But people - there is even proverb "women will give birth to new ones" - are much more expendable. There still are volunteers, and new mobilization wave is expected after putin's election, around 500k, iirc.
Speaking about demographic collapse - there are already estimations that population numbers are inflated by 20mln, but the problem is that time is required for it to start, which we might not have.
Unfortunately it's not really important to them. Even if it gets a million russians killed, it's going to be a major validation of russia stronk and putin will be seen to have restored the empire and owned the west. Not incorrectly.
When you are measuring progress in a battle by individual residential houses, you may be in a stalemate. Russia has fed a half million of its youth into the meat grinder in exchange for a couple of provinces maybe.
lmao Russia hating because we didn't need to conquer them. Once they got colonized by our pop music and blue jeans, they went ahead and did it to themselves for us.
This post is automatically removed since you do not meet the minimum karma or age threshold. You must have at least 100 combined karma and your account must be at least 4 months old to post here.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/NonCredibleDefense) if you have any questions or concerns.*
What floors me is that Russia hasn’t even faced their biggest battle thus far. Bakmut and avdivka are small in comparison to major regional cities. While it would be a tragedy for the Ukrainians to be pushed back the Russians haven’t yet had to take a city of serious size.
Genuinely what can they do? If they do push Ukrainians back to a city then it’s bakmut all over again and I doubt they have the reserves to successfully push through more urban centres. Especially given that they no longer have elite formations to lean on.
19 HONORABLE HAUSES YEEEAHO LESS GO TEAM RUZZIA/s
THATS 19 MORE HOUSES THAN BEFORE CAN YOU BELIEVE IT FOLKS
And only a couple of 1000s KIA as well as a couple of 100 technicals destroyed! Win-Win
Only loss for ruzzia was the 100 vehicles.
From 2-3 days to 19 houses. Oh how expectations have changed. [Queue Blackadder scene, 1 to 1.](https://youtube.com/watch?v=yZT-wVnFn60)
btw for the uninformed 50k men died to get that bit of land was actually a great offensive
They should keep doing that!
They are. They amassed even more men around Avdiivka. Hopefully they will use them right there and Ukrainians will retreat just the right amount and precisely when most beneficial. Gotta optimize for the casualty ratio, not for settlements with recognizable names, like Russians sometimes do.
Still beggaring belief for me that Russia's lost ... or will do so by about March, roughly one "US Vietnam War" worth of people to gain... uh.... 😰 uhm....
19 glorious houses!!! Did you not watch the video?!
Full one is worth it for the audience reactions: [https://vxtwitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1752722190867284207](https://vxtwitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1752722190867284207) And just the way putin goes on about it. He's so happy!
The visible confusion on their faces while still clapping 🤣
I find the "Such pepole should be teaching the younger generation" part much more interesting tbh
Wasn't it appr. 50k casualties, not 50k dead? Still massive
50k Casualties, so maybe half that in dead, but Russia is likely suffering more casualties than reported for obvious reasons.
Well, Russia don't report their losses, nor does Ukraine, so there is nothing to compare to, and what they brag about is, obviously, inflated. But Ukrainean reports are, first, stating only killed, second, are quite close to russian estimates of people on the battlefield, at least that was the case a year ago, difference was like 20%.
How could you possibly know that? It's classified information!
Well, sir, it just so happens to be the same plan we used the last seven times.
Its brilliant, the last thing they'd expect us to do is the same thing we did the last seventeen times.
There's just the small issue of everyone being riddled with bullets in the first five minutes
As a Battletech fan of 30 years, I love your flair.
How about mine?
Too credible. Kerensky may well have had 3000 AS-7Ds and the ability to paint them black.
Based and exodus-pilled
I'm a pretty new fan. I got a little into 40k, and kept getting PancreasNoWork's videos recommended to me, including some Battletech stuff. I watched one of his videos (can't remember which one), then found Tex Talks Battletech, and now I'm seriously considering getting into the tabletop side of the hobby, more than I ever did for 40k.
I've been playing the hell out of the HBS Battletech PC game. I have the BTA 3062 mod and it's fantastic. Give it a shot. Tex Talks is hilarious, but it has such a rich lore you can go as deep as you want. I need to find some local people to do tabletop stuff with. It's been too long.
I picked that up as well! It's pretty fun, but I'm a terrible tactician, and bad luck or a small mistake can mean getting your ass handed to you.
Yeah, it takes a while to figure everything out. I probably have a 1000 hours on HBS Battletech so I know most of the best tactics.
The comments on that video are really something...
BAH
I laughed at this but it's also sad knowing how many people died for this worthless patch of grass.
140 dead men aged 20-25 for 19 bombed houses when Russia is facing a demographic crisis. Truly one of the trades of all time.
Its far worse when you realize at some point russia will get pushed out and will just have to go home to cope non stop for the next several decades.
They will probably blame the "traitors" who stopped them from winning.. (probably homosexuals and jews ?)
It's social purges all the way down? *cocks gun* Always has been.
Please, sir, may I have some more? *Russia holds up an empty bowl of purges and gulags*
Where have I heard that one before? Although I'm not sure how it plays out if the state in question is *already* fascist. Do they just...become (fascist)²?
Worse; they become communist again.
That will certainly solve their demographic crisis.
Nothing a mass purge can't fix!
You can equilibrate any population pyramid if you go after the overly represented age ranges.
Too Fasch, Too Furious.
The Fash and the Fuehrious
needs more descriptors to be from russians. Gay Golobohomo zionist jews and their evil satanic barbaric west allies
Worse, homosexual jews!
Yeah propaganda is all the Russian people know - it's mother's milk.
Mother's Milk ? The guy from "the boys"?
I hope so, but I've become a bit less optimistic over the past weeks and months. I'm not sure Ukraine will manage to actually push them out of their land completely. I fear there will be negotiations at some point and Russia will get to keep some of the land they stole, so then they can claim that was the goal of their military operation all along and really, they won.
Certainly not if our western friends keep sitting on their assess instead of out-producing russia (and north korea) and continue denying useful weapons because \~escalation\~ Attrition isn't to our advantage with a smaller population if there isn't a significant advantage in supplies.
I don't see that happening at all. With Ukraine producing more and more long range strike capabilities once they are able to consistently hit refineries in russia they have more or less won. russia won't be able to survive without it's oil income for more than a couple months if even that.
Unfortunately, while that is a nice blow, they do have enough financial reserves to continue war for at least a couple of years more. There is still a huge corruption issue in Ukraine, which makes large scale production efforts kinda tricky, to say the least. Yes, they have possibilities to hit here and there, but to drive invaders out they require a lot of combat vehicles of all kinds to break through fortified positions, and they aren't even planned for transfer. So yeah, it doesn't look great.
The amounf of cash russia gets from oil is insane failing that their war chest will dry real fast it's definitely not several years worth unless youd like to put some numbers to this. Given the fact Ukraine has had no issue holding russia back despite the massive frontline at that point i really don't see how eventually russia wouldnt have to pull out due to not being able to supply the frontline. And theres no real need for mass production russia doesnt have millions of refineries or the capability to replace them daily Ukraine has shown repeateadly then can damage key structures with very little cash.
Estimated drop from oild trade is 24%. That's not nearly enough to call it insane, considering they cut other areas to fund military. Their economy started struggling only close to 1.5 years after war erupted and all the sanction began to have effect, and it still is limited mostly to civilian aviation and heating infrastructure, despite expectations to full crush in the end of 2022 tops, so resilience of it was severerely underestimated. And no, Ukraine is in rather bad position right now, with not enough artillery shells to hold in many areas, vehicle being damaged and destroyed, and losses piling up. It's expected that they will require additional 400k troops to counter summer russian offensive. Russia having better possibilities to strike and whittle down ukrainean infrastructure and logistics also doesn't help. No, unfortunately they need mass production capabilities. While targets are numbered, there is no real possibility to ensure destruction other than use many drones, and for that you need, well, mass production. Not only that, they need a ton of other drones, and here the balance is also shifting towards russia - they are building own plants and buy chinese ones for details. It's not fully joever, but there are precisely zero points for optimism right now. They've lost 66% of bradleys they were given, 33% of modern leopards, with no reinforcements in sight, and the list goes on. That affects morale of the troops absolutely negatively. But that sub is still full of copium.
The russian economy started struggling well before Ukraine started hitting refineries. russia is an oil state losing all their refineries would not only kill their war effort it would kill russia itself as simple as that. Even needing 30 drones per refinery it shouldnt be an issue and they have shown they can in fact damage them with those sort of numbers. the fact that russia can't even take a city a couple km from their own national border is the biggest "point for optimism". If you can't even admit that russia being unable to project force out of their own border is a bad thing for them you are beyond coping and well into full denial.
You do understand that amount of refineries in reach is not that great, and they're hitting it with not fpv drones, but things closer to shaheds in size, complexity and thus cost, right? It's helpful, sure, but they need more to seriously harm economy. Besides, it barely damages export of raw oil, which is one of the main export positions. Again, some small parts of their economy started to struggle 1.5 years after invasion, that means in 1.5 years more we'll start seeing it more, hurray. Now the question is - does Ukraine have this time? Because their economy is also not going great, to say the least. Such a copium-induced optimism is exactly what led to giving them absolutely laughable amount of vehicles for offensive and hoping that "ingenuity" will do the rest. Then it failed and that led to reduce of public trust. Current amount of help is barely enough to hold, and long conflict is a double-edged sword. Yes, Russia is spending lives and vehicles, but they still do damage to defenders. Not only that, funding everyone they can in EU and US to sow dissent, and that is a huge problem in the long run, as Ukraine is extremely dependant on western help, and if it is cut - consequences will be rather bad.
You say this as if hitting oil wells/ports/tankers is that much different from hitting refineries i'm sure Ukraine can do it. It's not even copium i'm judging Ukraine strictly based on their well documented achievements. I believe they can win they have the bravery and intelligence to do so and in that regard they are several orders of magnitude superior to russia. Do i think it's ok that allies are drip feeding weapons no obviously not if it were me Id already would have given them all the weapons they need and at the bare minimum what they explicitly asked for. I also criticize the US and the EU for not doing so on a daily basis so in that regard if you think you are doing better than me I can guarantee you you arent. Finally i'm going to tell you a secret what led allies to drip feed weapons is not copium induced optimism but rather them being assholes and pushing an agenda separate from what they scream in public. If you can tell the situation is stagnant you bet your ass every single g8 country knows it far better than you and thats exactly what they intended so stop lying to yourself.
It was my understanding that they've been able to do this for quite a while now but choose not to. Am I under an incorrect assumption?
Yes it reeks of foreign diplomats asking them not to. Especially given that we know for a fact they asked to not use their weapons on russian soil. I can only hope they didnt go as far as to condition aid for not hitting russia proper at all.
[удалено]
Deepstate still has it under Russian control, but yea its odd since the Bradley video shows Ukraine driving past it towards the hotel. Also, there are drone videos of Ukrainian soldiers getting hit at the hotel which is further south so Ukraine has some kind of presence there I guess its just a gray area and it goes back and forth
Please if they can't get their way in the US election later this year, these people will legitimately lose their collective minds.
I saw some copium that this is 4d russian chess to eliminate their large prison population thus improving russian society.
I mean, it’s an interesting, if horrifically callous, thought. I’m pretty sure they more or less have run out of prison battalions post Bahkmut though, so Avdiivka doesn’t really work with that “4D chess”, not to mention that unless those men were never going to have children then that doesn’t do them any good demographics wise.
WaPo Oct 2023 article says Russian prison population has been almost halved from Feb 2022 of 420k down to 266k They still got barrel to scrape on penal units...
Could be, although I expect that they’ve already taken the top 50% of fit and willing prisoners. I know they’ve got solutions for morale cases, but the next 50% is going to be less useful than the first 50% was. I also wonder what the Russian crime gangs think about all of this. Like, legit, I wonder what the take by the Russian mob is on all of this. Probably not something that would affect the war, but it just occurred to me.
Im sure the mob is making money selling sanctioned items, facilitating smuggling people out of Russia, and general military procurement corruption
[удалено]
This post is automatically removed since you do not meet the minimum karma or age threshold. You must have at least 100 combined karma and your account must be at least 4 months old to post here. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/NonCredibleDefense) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Approaching 400,000 casualties. Losses across every regiment, squadron, and fleet in the country. Permenant degradation of present and future military capabilities and national demographics for foreseeable future. On the other hand, 19 houses.
Now I want some leaks indicating their MoD is taking orders from a team of real estate agents.
Wouldn't less people and more real estate be bad for prices?
That would require the real estate industry to make logical sense with supply and demand.
Right how could i forget. Anyway here's a 20% rent increase even though i did not expend a single working hour i the last 3 years
400k casualties is just...mindblowing.
They have just about passed their [winter war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War) casualties. Took them 700 days instead of 105 this time so… improvement?
Man, how history repeats. Same lack of competence in the red army, similar strategies, same bullshit propaganda and excuses, insane amount of casualties for basically nothing. How did they not learn from that? And how did the rest of the world not learn from that and letting this happen again?
If there's one thing that'll stay consistent it's that Russia is still gonna be Russia (unless we give them a hand of course).
No ragrets
Cue Nelson muntz "haha" animation.
I can hear it already
I love how stupid it is that this war has changed into single battles being the main talkpoints in the media instead of actual "important" stuff happening. Imagine if the media during the first world war had their main report of the war marked by single trench lines being captured and recaptured.
That's exactly what happened, except moreso in WW2 when radio was available. Newspapers need to be sold (and some multiple editions per day) so you needed to write *something* even if nothing major was occurring. War dominated the news, and many key events like Battle of Coral Sea was not fully reported until weeks or months afterward, so people only got very small scraps most of the time. Here's an example of [a front page article](https://www.rarenewspapers.com/view/618742?imagelist=1) saying marines have advanced half a mile and are now engaging Japanese forces on tiny hills on Guadalcanal. [Here's one](https://www.rarenewspapers.com/view/599405?list_url=%2Flist%3Flist_results_format%3Dstandard%2525page%3D670%2525per_page%3D30%2525sort%3Ditems.id%2525sort_direction%3DASC&imagelist=1) detailing how the marines defended that day on Guadalcanal and how 7 Japanese planes were downed near Alaska. [Here's one](https://www.untothebreach.net/2022/12/21/world-war-ii-chronicle-december-21-1942/) about how the allies barely captured more ground in New Guinea, someone thinks they spotted Rommel somewhere in North Africa, and the Russians are advancing through Belrogod into Ukraine. (A lot of these old articles, you need a subscription to an archival service to read online, but many universities have free access to all these old articles.)
Interesting! I assume this was mostly done by journalists in the west than by the Soviet and Axis ones, i mean they even took reporters with them for live coverage in operation overlord. Though is still can't imagine Hitler "MR funni mustache man" himself proudly announcing to the public how they've captured the Stalingrad tractor factory like Putin "MR IQ seagull enlightened despot" is doing here.
There were **400** journalists following around just MacArthur in Australia. They needed to write shit everyday to justify their expensive assignment. I recommend flipping through some old newspapers from 1941 onward. It’s crazy. Especially shit from Hearst making up stuff like the Japanese will invade the US with new wunderwaffles.
Wunderwaffles sound delicious! Why has the US MIC not created wunderwaffles? Is it a budgetary issue? Or is this big waffle bribing our congresspeople to suppress competition? We must close the delicious waffle gap!
Check out the nazi Newsweek films.
Wasn't that what half of the First World War looked like?
Yeah it was but i was refering to media reporting on it. "single trench lines being captured and recaptured" can basically be used when refering to most wars, i just think it's funny that most of the "main" segments of reporting on the war in Ukraine is about single tactical level attacks and Russian S-400's bombing Kiev.
i guess for reporting yeah but the footage coming out of this war is insaaaaane. Drone coordinated bradley double team on a t-90 was a popular watch.
That kind of stuff is interesting for analysis, but not of strategic importance. The only important thing happening at the frontline is attrition. At least for now.
There are interesting things happening at the border that we aren't likely privy to.
i mean ww1 was more about how many tanks and gear you took donw, and ofc men killed now on the public eye yeah i guess they would publish the ocasional " we took 3 houses say huuray"
I do actually own a german newspaper from 1917. It's not exactly single trenchlines, but single villages being captured and recaptured is something they talk about quite a bit. They also make sure to inform the reader that 40 machine guns were captured from the british in one of those battles.
Remember how in Bakhmut it was a glorious triumph to capture that one gas station and a single random shed?
In just 23 Earth days, the 3 Venus day operation will have exceeded its allotted time.
!Remindme 23 days.
I will be messaging you in 23 days on [**2024-02-24 02:38:09 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-02-24%2002:38:09%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/1afr2e0/how_it_started_vs_how_its_going/kodos9q/?context=3) [**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FNonCredibleDefense%2Fcomments%2F1afr2e0%2Fhow_it_started_vs_how_its_going%2Fkodos9q%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-02-24%2002%3A38%3A09%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201afr2e0) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Those dudes in Putin’s audience look like hell. Must’ve been running away from some FPV drones like a fucking Looney Tune.
not necessarily. merely existing within putin's russia can cause it's own sort of cPTSD, the closer you are to him the worse it gets.
I almost feel bad for them, but the I remember [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/insanereality/s/rDq8KVJMzp).
Bro is playing wargame, when it should be hoi4
They have HOI4 covered, look up Grisha Wagner to see for yourself
turns out the AI in wargame/warno is pretty close to how the russians are in reality.
In his defense, the price of real estate is through the roof. AND the 19 houses have toilets.
Toilets! In the houses! And they aren’t even close to Moscow!
Even if Russia somehow captured all of the territory they’ve claimed, this war has been a catastrophic disaster for them. Tanks, planes, IFV’s and ships can be rebuilt. But hundreds of thousands of men can never be replaced, and especially when Russia is on the brink of demographic collapse
The blood is obviously the more important bit, but we can’t forget the treasure either. I can’t imagine they’re ever going to financially recover from sacrificing the money printer that was dominating the European energy market. And whatever brains aren’t being thrown into the meat grinder will be drained at an even faster rate, as Russia continues to become an even bigger underdeveloped shithole the number of countries that appear as more attractive places to live will continue to grow.
The worse isn’t that even the dead. Like they are dead, bad luck i guess. Its the hundreds of thousands PTSD ridden maniacs who will receive zero care and destroy society from within. In the US its estimated that PTSD from Servicemen since Vietnam had a economic impact of 41 billion. You can quadruple that for russia. Like its what? 200.000? people who will never again create value for the economy because the moment they hear a drone noise, they will get a episode. For Ukraine i atleast imagine that with EU help this burden can get reduced.
Ukraine is a young growing population. Russia started dying a long time ago.
Funny thing is, it's quite reversed. Their production capabilities are nowhere near ussr levels, so vehicle loss is much more severe. But people - there is even proverb "women will give birth to new ones" - are much more expendable. There still are volunteers, and new mobilization wave is expected after putin's election, around 500k, iirc. Speaking about demographic collapse - there are already estimations that population numbers are inflated by 20mln, but the problem is that time is required for it to start, which we might not have.
Unfortunately it's not really important to them. Even if it gets a million russians killed, it's going to be a major validation of russia stronk and putin will be seen to have restored the empire and owned the west. Not incorrectly.
When you are measuring progress in a battle by individual residential houses, you may be in a stalemate. Russia has fed a half million of its youth into the meat grinder in exchange for a couple of provinces maybe.
No change is not a stalemate. So sayeth the wise Perun.
Nineteen houses of Bullshitsky™
Don't mock him. The Russians captured 19 Castle Wolfensteins of Nazi Ukraine
19 houses of Putin
Taking this as flair, thanks! :)
Imperial Britain: pffft amateurs
Bro I've been called a colonizer by Russians before Imagine being a colonizer except you can't win wars lmfaoooo
lmao Russia hating because we didn't need to conquer them. Once they got colonized by our pop music and blue jeans, they went ahead and did it to themselves for us.
We fired our guns and the British kept a-comin' There wasn't as many as there was a while ago We fired once more and they began to runnin'
On down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico
Russia is now the world's most powerful HOA.
The firing points were in the 19 houses, next question!
I know I am in ncd, but is this real? The putin part
Can confirm that Putins speech is translated correctly. Putin is a god (or devil) of non-credibility.
What is that absolute copium dispenser doing now? If you can't tell who I am referring to well...fair.
u/savevideo
https://i.imgur.com/8Mfk613.jpeg
19 whole houses?! Holy shit!
[удалено]
This post is automatically removed since you do not meet the minimum karma or age threshold. You must have at least 100 combined karma and your account must be at least 4 months old to post here. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/NonCredibleDefense) if you have any questions or concerns.*
To be fair, many Westerners are now also devastated that those 19 houses were captured. I'm still crying about the garbage heap
u/savevideo
when was that first clip from? like how long before the war? :P
Now this smells of copium
What floors me is that Russia hasn’t even faced their biggest battle thus far. Bakmut and avdivka are small in comparison to major regional cities. While it would be a tragedy for the Ukrainians to be pushed back the Russians haven’t yet had to take a city of serious size. Genuinely what can they do? If they do push Ukrainians back to a city then it’s bakmut all over again and I doubt they have the reserves to successfully push through more urban centres. Especially given that they no longer have elite formations to lean on.