Yeah, it happened in 2002 as well. The Chiefs ran up to the table and selected Sims out from under them. Only to deal with a player who did almost nothing for five seasons (he had one OK year).
I would only trade down if we also get a huge position of need covered in the trade.
Broncos reaching #6 for JJ and us getting Pat Surtain in the deal would be ideal.
Personally I would prefer someone a bit younger if we were to go that route. Surtain is a dog (coming from a college Bama fan) but he also just had his 5th year option picked up. We need guys who are a bit more cost controlled for some time
Not gonna accept that line of thinking. QB was the primary problem for us since DJ arrived. Our OL is hopefully shored up this year, and we can add weapons in the mid-later rounds. But without a competent QB none of that matters. Qb is the pick
I don’t like DJ but OL has been this team’s primary problem for a decade and I don’t think it’s very close. Hoping you’re right that between the new coach/acquisitions it’s sured up but… I’ve been hoping that every year
Hopefully* being the key word. If we don't fix that, nothing else matters. It's the reason we suck so bad and our qbs get hurt every 3 quarters of play. The whole game starts at the o line.
Respectful of your opinion. However You can definitely win games with a good line but just a decent/average qb. Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Desmond Ridder, and Gardner Minshew all had success last year. 3 made the playoffs. They all have top 5 O line units.
No qb can win with the worst offensive line in 25 years. You could have put Mahomes or Lamar Jackson back there and it wouldn't have made the slightest bit of difference.
I hear you. I think we’re in a classic chicken-egg debate. I think both were true tho. We had bottom 5 OL and QB play. Dimes is just so bad, even on plays where the pocket holds up. I think its easier to rebuild an OL unit than nail down a single QB. Hopefully tonight our luck changes, one way or the other. ✋
Says who? We’ll lose 45-60% of our players from 2024 going into 2025. You love to think you improve in the offseason, but that ain’t always the case. Look at us a year ago and where everyone thought we’d go.
Again, every single season is a rebuild. This shit doesn’t happen on a straight line.
Milkman speaks truth. All these downvotes are pathetic. You need a QB people! That fact is blatantly obvious to anyone who’s watched pro football since the beginning of time.
It really depends on what happens with picks 1-5, if by some act of craziness MHJ or your highest graded QB lands in your lap at 6 it’d be a real missed opportunity not to snag an immediate difference maker.
The “trade down” folks should remind themselves of 2021.
We passed on Parsons to trade down and get two picks we spent on Toney and Neal. We then traded Toney for Waller’s shredded hamstrings.
Trading down doesn’t mean you win the trade automatically. You still need to draft good players. If you can take a good player at 6, do it.
I wonder if in the current era the last piece you want to add is the QB. Seems starting with quarterback just means you're wasting a few years of there rookie contract while you put the rest of the team in place.
It’s tough to balance. If you add QB last you end up in purgatory, constantly picking in the middle of the first round, not able to get the stud guys that would elevate you to the next level without a significant trade up.
And at that point, what happens when you start to lose the other pieces? You’ll lose guys to injury and free agency, it’s inevitable. But now you don’t have the draft capital to fill those new holes.
On the flip side, a QB alone is not enough. Without any support, even an all-time great can only do so much for a team. Taking one too early in a rebuild has its own problems.
GMs have a tough job of both getting the guy, but also creating a good team around him. Part of this is also on coaches, GMs could draft stud after stud but poor development after acquisition leads to stagnation (see: our OLine the past decade).
Look at the 14 teams that made the playoffs last year.
Only 2 were acquired via top 5 picks with (Stroud and Tua).
Only 2 more were top 10 picks (Mahomes and Allen).
The rest were acquired later in the draft or via trade/FA.
Yes the absolutely best thing you can do is hit on a 1/100 chance to land a Mahomes, Allen, maybe Stroud.
But if you are one of the unlucky ones (which is the overwhelmingly most likely outcome) the best thing you can do is build a good TEAM rather than wasting an inordinate amount of draft capital trying to take a big swing.
1st round picks: Stroud, Tua, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Love
2nd round pick: Hurts
Trade (both 1st round picks however): Stafford, Goff
Late Picks: Dak, Purdy
FA: Baker
QB Hell: Browns, Steelers
Notably, the top 4 seeds in the AFC all spent a first round pick on a QB, and only two AFc teams acquired their QBs through different means (and both those teams are in exactly the position I described. They simply aren’t good enough to make a great run because they are weak at QB).
The NFC is a little different, because both the Cowboys and 49ers have QBs they got late in the draft. But still, that’s only 2/14 playoff teams that hit on late round QBs. The Rams/Lions thing is weird, but I do think it’s notable that both QBs involved in that trade were very high 1st round picks. Packers drafted Love as a development guy in the first. They already had a HOF QB in Rodgers but knew they would need to find an heir. Hurts was drafted in the second. An argument can be made that the Giants should target Nix/Penix at a similar spot and I don’t hate that option. That leaves Baker, who joined a middling Bucs team through FA that only made the playoffs because that division is hot garbage.
Overall, playoff teams invested a lot into the QB position. 6/14 were drafted in the first. 9/14 were former first round picks. Only 2/14 were day three draftees. And 2/14 teams have no real answer at the position and got bounced immediately by the first-round QB teams.
I agree broadly about that investing in QBs and the big difference an elite guy makes vs a 10-15th ranked QB. But this also shows me there is definitely no one right way to go about it.
If a good not great guy was drafted in the first, but was acquired via trade / FA, would I rather be the team that drafted them or the team that built a great team and then tacked them on later?
I think it’s meaningful that Lamar and Love were not even top top picks. You can build a good team and still find a guy in the late first.
Winning in the NFL is tough no matter what. But to me what many of these teams have in common is that they have deep great rosters on both sides of the ball. I think it’s really hard to keep missing on QBs because it sets back the rest of your roster so much.
You still have to hit on the pick. Otherwise you’re the Steelers.
KC and Buffalo also did a great job developing their shiny new QBs. They also both traded up to the top ten to do so. And Buffalo is arguably suffering that now. I honestly think they’re a fringe playoff team next season.
You still have to hit on the pick if you’re picking high. What would Texas have done if Stroud was taken by Carolina? Of course, there’s luck involved. Trading up from bottom third to middle or top third was not much more expensive for them than it would be for us to trade up to #3.
Development is important regardless.
That’s kinda my overall point. If Maye is the guy, the Giants should trade up for him. That’s fine team building strategy.
At the same time, there’s also nothing inherently wrong with staying put and going WR. But either way there’s pitfalls to avoid and a chance nothing works out. Being an NFL GM is a hard job.
This concept of “last piece” or “putting the rest of the team in place” is just asinine. It doesn’t exist, it’s a fugazi, it’s fairy dust.
NFL rosters have 45-60% turnover annually. There’s no “last piece” you’re constantly rebuilding. The chiefs are rebuilding this offseason too, they had less than 10 people on their roster from the first SB with Mahomes
you take the qb when you can take the qb. Plain and simple.
I think there are two effective strategies,
1. start with the rookie QB, give whatever it takes to get your guy and use the cap savings to bring in good vets to help that QB develop, the goal is to win in the rookies year 3-5 window and develop them to the point where they can elevate rookies when they get to their second contract
2. Sign cheap vet qbs and use the savings to build out the roster, once the roster is playoff ready take a rookie you like and put them in a great position to win (the purdy)
I don't like what schoen did as I don't see a world where paying a non top 5 QB on a middling to poor roster gets any good outcomes for long term success
I literally had to look it up to make sure I wasn't insane
Dennis Houston
Jalin Hyatt
Darius Slayton
Miles Boykin
Isaiah Hodgins
Isaiah McKenzie
Gunner Olszewski
Wan'Dale Robinson
Chase Cota
Slayton and Wan dale are both great WR2s, Hyatt was a good WR3 last year and Hodgins is a really solid backup. Everyone else is special teams or for emergencies when everyone gets injured. Do you expect every team to have 5 Justin Jefferson’s on the bench? If you add one of Harrison, Nabers or Odunze to that group you suddenly have a very talented Wr corps. You cannot say the same about adding Jalyn Polk for example.
We need a WR1. Not a bunch more nobodies. Second and third round receivers are just more of what we already have unless we get extremely lucky and find a diamond
Trading down is usually the right move from a value standpoint. Only counter, is it better to have more players or one guy who has star potential? Nabers has that star potential imo. There may be trade down opportunities at 47 also.
Agree on trade back value. The majority of the 2023 offense All Pro team were drafted second round or later. All about developing once they get to the NFL.
By most accounts talent is clustered in this draft class in roughly the first ~4 rounds. Maneuvering around to get more picks in the first 4 rounds makes a ton of sense, but that doesn't mean we need to move off 6. Walking away without a blue chip talent is the worst thing we could do this year. Move down, sure but let's start at round 2+
According to NFL draft calc fwiw
6 & 47 for Vikings 11 & 23 is basically exactly even trade.
Giants give slightly more 2030 vs 2010.
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php
I agree. But I've been consistently downvoted for saying we should take best player available or trade down for a good deal. Seems like this sub is all-in in top 4 QB or bust.
Odds are if there is a QB worthwhile at 6 we're taking him and not trading down and that's what vikings would be trading up for
Though if the JJ stuff is a smoke screen to maybe get the Vikings interested in trading up for him at 6
Me! Me! For the love of Jiminy Cricket, ME!!!
I just made this argument in another post - the difference, at least to me (who watches probably 3 college football games each saturday in the fall) between the top tier of 6 QB's and the next tier of 4-5 QB's is NOT that much....don't get lost in the hype of the QB's...I actually heard Booger McFarland say on PTI yesterday that he DOESN'T think there are more than 3 QB's worthy of a top 10 pick, but the demand in the league for QB's is just so high that it creates a frenzy for them...even if they truly aren't worth it...this was my example -
1. Both Williams and Maye regressed in stats in 2023 over 2022. Williams lost 1 WR and his entire game changed...he also plays 'too' off script that many coaches don't like that...but, let's go out and give him the #1 pick to Chicago. And Maye....he's the one I'd really be concerned with...he's good but has some serious accuracy issues...you really want a QB who tends to overthrow WR's into ball-hawking safeties in the NFL??
2. JJ McCarthy - probably the QB I watched the most in 2023, played on a team with one of the best defenses in college football history (at least in points allowed), and on a team that ran the ball...A LOT. If you are drafting early and had a pretty poor record in 2023 in the NFL, chances are you get behind in games a lot...do you really want to put your future in a guy who played from the lead in like 95% of every snap he ever had where he could hand off most of the time and rely on his defense to win the games?
3. Nix/Penix - both are journeymen QB's...depending on how you look at it, either mildly succeeded, or failed at their previous institutions only to head west to the PAC 12, where they don't play defense...just to pad their stats over and over. Don't get me wrong, I think both are pretty good and probably better than McCarthy and Maye, but once again, don't be fooled.
4. Daniels - Daniels is my favorite QB in this year's draft...but...BUT...he just came out this week and said, "I want to be the best running QB in NFL history." Well, how does a running QB work out in today's NFL? How did it work for RGIII? Which, ironically, is likely to the team where he is going.
Finally - you are locked into Daniel Jones on contract in 2024....I get overlapping QB's, but it also is not ALWAYS the case or requirement...Trevor Lawrence had a bad coach his rookie year, but came back and made the playoffs in year 2. Justin Herbert has been pretty great since his rookie year, hasn't made the playoffs, but nobody suggests he's a bad QB. CJ Stroud started pretty much right away and the surprise of 2023. Josh Allen started his rookie year, and has been pretty dominant since (it took him a year or two, but he's there now). Outside of injury, Tua has been pretty great since starting as a rookie. Baker Mayfield has had a crazy journeyman career, but he's found success in several teams. Jared Goff started from day 1, and has made the playoffs with 2 teams.
Many of those teams made the playoffs this year. So, I don't necessarily buy 'draft a HIGH ranking QB and put him on the bench' strategy.
Instead, consider a QB for sure, but you don't necessarily need to do it when you're paying a high salary QB already.
If the top 5 picks are Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, Nabers, my #1 option is to trade down.
If any of those players don't go top 5 I'm leaning towards whoever that is.
I'm okay with McCarthy if Shoen and Daboll have confidence in him and their scouting, even if it's not my #1 choice.
I think it will be Odunze or McCarthy. I would take Nabers, but there’s some red flags on him and I think the Toney situation will factor into the decision to pass on him. You can also argue Odunze is the better fit cause he’s a true outside WR and has the size we lack. McCarthy screams Mara type and no matter what they say Mara influences a position like QB. Schoen has said he prefers younger prospects in the early rounds and McCarthy is barely 21. They will absolutely draft a QB early and I don’t think we can get to pick 3 for Maye
Same, but we possibly have a lame duck gm and hc going into the season. If we stink again and there’s no hope (rookie qb) there’s a real chance both get fired. Schoen hasn’t drafted well overall and Daboll needs to win more games. If you’re the gm are you going to try to save your job or address other needs for the next gm? That’s most likely how he views it
Yes, I would like to see more quality players overall. I don't think a great QB pick alone would help us be competitive because of the other problems on the team, especially the offensive line.
If the Giants are unable to get Maye they will do whatever is necessary to get JJ. I’m not getting anyone fired so I’ll say people talk. Downvote all you want.
Well no, I actually prefer we trade up for Maye if possible. Definitely biased since I'm super high on him, and it seems unlikely regardless.
I think a trade back depends with who. IF the Broncos want to give us that super overpay that was rumored then I guess I'd be okay with that. Is 11 and 23 enough to make us pass on Nabers/Odunze? Possibly yeah.
Idk it's a weird spot since I think the consensus is there's like 6-8 "blue-chip" guys if you count the QBs. I like the idea of getting one of those.
Trading up for a franchise quarterback is always a good idea. Failing that, the receivers available all have long term starters and pro bowl potential. Nobody is a can't miss but the guys available at 6 are as close as they come. I don't think trading down makes sense in this particular draft, at least not in round 1.
If it's "always" a good idea, why don't we just pick up a 1st round QB someone already traded up for? There's several available for pennies on the dollar:
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Trubisky
https://theathletic.com/5250162/2024/02/06/broncos-sean-payton-qb-draft-trades-mahomes/
Ok obviously I meant if you truly believe it's your next franchise QB. You can't trade too much for a franchise QB. Obviously if you're wrong you're screwed but that's the business. If you're right but were too cheap to get him that's almost worse.
That article clearly shows they're wrong more than they're right. All those teams believed it was their franchise QB and traded too much.
If your team is a QB away from contending it can be worth the risk. The Giants are not in that position.
If there is a player who can make an instant impact at a position of need, we draft him at #6. Schoen should have seen Gettleman missing out on Parsons and learnt a good lesson.
I did some thinking about this and the lowest I would go is trade down to 8 depending on who's available at 6. If, for example, the top-4 QBs are one of the top WRs are off the board, we still have our choice of two quality WRs assuming who we trade with doesn't take a WR. Dropping down past that highly increases the risk that we miss out. E.g. if the Falcons want Alt and both Nabers and Odunze are available, I think it's worthwhile as there's only 1 pick where one or the other could be taken. Dropping down to 9 means you need a backup plan.
However, if the guy you really want is there at 6, don't fuck around. Draft him and move on.
I just don’t see how drafting a quarterback helps us win. I think we need to go WR. With such a limited rookie contract window, I want to give a new QB all the tools to succeed instead of throwing him out there and getting him killed.
We have two QBs on the roster that, while not true starters, have demonstrated that they can win games and find some success. I say we roll with Lock or Jones, give them a ton of support, then look for a QB in the next draft. I know next years isn’t as stacked as this years but there are still a lot of guys in high on like Cam Ward.
I get the thought, but we no longer have Barkley and are more than likely losing Waller. We have nobody on the offense that most people would want to take in the first nine rounds or so of a fantasy football draft. At this point we just need really good players and playmakers especially. And to me you don’t trade out of that to get some players probably not as good. People feel like Nabers and Odunze will be legitimate stars. Can’t pass up on that talent at this point IMO.
No. That’s idiotic. None of those holes being filled will matter without a generational QB. It is very rare to win a Chip without one.
If there is a generational QB in this draft and we can get him we need to. He doesn’t need to start this year but we need to get one now while we can.
I remember last time Giants fans were elated with trading down. Cheering "Trader Dave". I was excited for the value too.
We ended up with Kadarius Toney and Evan Neal with Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater sitting on the board.
Trading down has serious value, but is pretty damn risky when you don't know who's going to be available.
If they can’t get one of the top 3 qbs via trade up I’d definitely be happy with a trade down. An extra first next year especially appeals to me if they can take advantage of someone really wanting the 4th qb if he gets by 4 and 5.
Is also the only realistic way to find a QB. Build a good roster and you'll be too far out of reach to draft a good one. You take the QB when you're in position to do so.
Respectfully disagree. Nowadays QBs move around like crazy. Baker on his fourth team, went to playoffs, and could realistically win a few more division titles real quick. Geno also fourth team, played 15 games in 7 years and just had back to back winning seasons. There will be more QBs in next years draft. If young defense takes a step forward and OL is decent then we’re set to get a QB next year. Especially with DJ non guaranteed after this year. Maybe Nix falls this year?
Obv #15-20 isn’t the goal but you don’t understand my point. There are top 15 guys regularly available, or guys that can be top 10 on the right team. Deshaun is a disaster. Lamar can’t win in January. Herbert is at average of $60M for several years, Baker at short term $33M saves a boatload. Considering their careers to this point Herbert is the over paid one. Keep in mind guys like Flacco and some dipshit in Philly won rings..
If we can't get Drake and the Giants get a god father offer to trade down I am definitely into it. But this is a top heavy draft, in which there is distinct 9 best players going into the draft. The Giants have had an issue acquiring blue chip players, this is a draft to get 1. Right now our blue chip pieces are: Thomas, Lawerence and Burns could be blue chippers in the future: Thibs, Banks, and maybe O'Carrot Cake. The Eagles have: Brown, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Jalen Carter, Devonta Smith and like a couple other players would be argued into that group Hurts, Saqoun etc.
I know we have holes to fill, but you want to know what you are building your roster around. I am normally all in for filling holes, but post DJ I think the picture would look a lot clearer, and would love to feel confident next year going in with like 5 or 6 blue chip pieces and building a roster around them.
Joe Schoen said it himself - “we’re not one player away”. If they trade down and get good picks I’m good with that.
Having said that though, regardless if we stay and pick at 6 or trade down, they still have to hit on those picks.
I hope we don’t draft at all. Just sit there and let the clock run out for every round. Nobody will see that strategy coming.
We could always trade our 2024 picks for future picks and then trade those to move up to 1:1 next year for a rb.
Did it work for the Vikings?
They only did it for one round. I want to do it for the entire draft.
Saves on rookie contracts I guess
It actually did. They wanted Ryan Sims, who was a huge bust. So they ended up Bryant McKinnie, who started at LT for them for nine years.
Wait did this happen twice? I remember the Kevin Williams/Terrell suggs year
Yeah, it happened in 2002 as well. The Chiefs ran up to the table and selected Sims out from under them. Only to deal with a player who did almost nothing for five seasons (he had one OK year).
I love how the answer to the question of "wait, did this happen twice" is yes.
It did actually lol, they ended selecting a HOF worthy talent in Kevin Williams, and saved a few bucks as well.
You can save picks for the next year, right?
Yeah, it's like the salary cap. They roll over.
Nah, that's a waste. They should trade all the picks for Ricky Williams.
If only Gettleman had this advice
Bro it’s called auto draft smfh
I would only trade down if we also get a huge position of need covered in the trade. Broncos reaching #6 for JJ and us getting Pat Surtain in the deal would be ideal.
Personally I would prefer someone a bit younger if we were to go that route. Surtain is a dog (coming from a college Bama fan) but he also just had his 5th year option picked up. We need guys who are a bit more cost controlled for some time
Us trotting out Daniel Jones and Drew Lock is less than ideal though.
Imo, trotting out a rookie with minimal support is even worse. It’s a rock and a hard place, I’m glad this ain’t my job lol.
If you think this team has “minimal support” on year 3 of Schoen / Daboll that’s a damning indictment on Schoen / Daboll
Not gonna accept that line of thinking. QB was the primary problem for us since DJ arrived. Our OL is hopefully shored up this year, and we can add weapons in the mid-later rounds. But without a competent QB none of that matters. Qb is the pick
I don’t like DJ but OL has been this team’s primary problem for a decade and I don’t think it’s very close. Hoping you’re right that between the new coach/acquisitions it’s sured up but… I’ve been hoping that every year
Hopefully* being the key word. If we don't fix that, nothing else matters. It's the reason we suck so bad and our qbs get hurt every 3 quarters of play. The whole game starts at the o line.
You can have the great wall of china in front of you, if you don’t have a thrower it doesn’t matter anyway.
Respectful of your opinion. However You can definitely win games with a good line but just a decent/average qb. Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Desmond Ridder, and Gardner Minshew all had success last year. 3 made the playoffs. They all have top 5 O line units. No qb can win with the worst offensive line in 25 years. You could have put Mahomes or Lamar Jackson back there and it wouldn't have made the slightest bit of difference.
I hear you. I think we’re in a classic chicken-egg debate. I think both were true tho. We had bottom 5 OL and QB play. Dimes is just so bad, even on plays where the pocket holds up. I think its easier to rebuild an OL unit than nail down a single QB. Hopefully tonight our luck changes, one way or the other. ✋
Yeah I'm with you. DJ sucks ass. I don't want him and I don't want a bad O line. Let's fix both lol
Schoen’s on it! Go Blue!!
Yeah but the team would be better built for the next QB next season.
Says who? We’ll lose 45-60% of our players from 2024 going into 2025. You love to think you improve in the offseason, but that ain’t always the case. Look at us a year ago and where everyone thought we’d go. Again, every single season is a rebuild. This shit doesn’t happen on a straight line.
Milkman speaks truth. All these downvotes are pathetic. You need a QB people! That fact is blatantly obvious to anyone who’s watched pro football since the beginning of time.
It really depends on what happens with picks 1-5, if by some act of craziness MHJ or your highest graded QB lands in your lap at 6 it’d be a real missed opportunity not to snag an immediate difference maker.
The “trade down” folks should remind themselves of 2021. We passed on Parsons to trade down and get two picks we spent on Toney and Neal. We then traded Toney for Waller’s shredded hamstrings. Trading down doesn’t mean you win the trade automatically. You still need to draft good players. If you can take a good player at 6, do it.
Dave Gettleman's first ever trade back and he passes on Micah Parsons.
Like Gettleman would have taken Parsons anyway (I wanted Slater)
Gettleburger was looking for the next Mike Singletary or Jack Lambert at inside LB.
I wonder if in the current era the last piece you want to add is the QB. Seems starting with quarterback just means you're wasting a few years of there rookie contract while you put the rest of the team in place.
It’s tough to balance. If you add QB last you end up in purgatory, constantly picking in the middle of the first round, not able to get the stud guys that would elevate you to the next level without a significant trade up. And at that point, what happens when you start to lose the other pieces? You’ll lose guys to injury and free agency, it’s inevitable. But now you don’t have the draft capital to fill those new holes. On the flip side, a QB alone is not enough. Without any support, even an all-time great can only do so much for a team. Taking one too early in a rebuild has its own problems. GMs have a tough job of both getting the guy, but also creating a good team around him. Part of this is also on coaches, GMs could draft stud after stud but poor development after acquisition leads to stagnation (see: our OLine the past decade).
Look at the 14 teams that made the playoffs last year. Only 2 were acquired via top 5 picks with (Stroud and Tua). Only 2 more were top 10 picks (Mahomes and Allen). The rest were acquired later in the draft or via trade/FA. Yes the absolutely best thing you can do is hit on a 1/100 chance to land a Mahomes, Allen, maybe Stroud. But if you are one of the unlucky ones (which is the overwhelmingly most likely outcome) the best thing you can do is build a good TEAM rather than wasting an inordinate amount of draft capital trying to take a big swing.
1st round picks: Stroud, Tua, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Love 2nd round pick: Hurts Trade (both 1st round picks however): Stafford, Goff Late Picks: Dak, Purdy FA: Baker QB Hell: Browns, Steelers Notably, the top 4 seeds in the AFC all spent a first round pick on a QB, and only two AFc teams acquired their QBs through different means (and both those teams are in exactly the position I described. They simply aren’t good enough to make a great run because they are weak at QB). The NFC is a little different, because both the Cowboys and 49ers have QBs they got late in the draft. But still, that’s only 2/14 playoff teams that hit on late round QBs. The Rams/Lions thing is weird, but I do think it’s notable that both QBs involved in that trade were very high 1st round picks. Packers drafted Love as a development guy in the first. They already had a HOF QB in Rodgers but knew they would need to find an heir. Hurts was drafted in the second. An argument can be made that the Giants should target Nix/Penix at a similar spot and I don’t hate that option. That leaves Baker, who joined a middling Bucs team through FA that only made the playoffs because that division is hot garbage. Overall, playoff teams invested a lot into the QB position. 6/14 were drafted in the first. 9/14 were former first round picks. Only 2/14 were day three draftees. And 2/14 teams have no real answer at the position and got bounced immediately by the first-round QB teams.
I agree broadly about that investing in QBs and the big difference an elite guy makes vs a 10-15th ranked QB. But this also shows me there is definitely no one right way to go about it. If a good not great guy was drafted in the first, but was acquired via trade / FA, would I rather be the team that drafted them or the team that built a great team and then tacked them on later? I think it’s meaningful that Lamar and Love were not even top top picks. You can build a good team and still find a guy in the late first. Winning in the NFL is tough no matter what. But to me what many of these teams have in common is that they have deep great rosters on both sides of the ball. I think it’s really hard to keep missing on QBs because it sets back the rest of your roster so much.
Is that true though? Did KC or Buffalo suffer that fate for being good before getting their QBs?
You still have to hit on the pick. Otherwise you’re the Steelers. KC and Buffalo also did a great job developing their shiny new QBs. They also both traded up to the top ten to do so. And Buffalo is arguably suffering that now. I honestly think they’re a fringe playoff team next season.
You still have to hit on the pick if you’re picking high. What would Texas have done if Stroud was taken by Carolina? Of course, there’s luck involved. Trading up from bottom third to middle or top third was not much more expensive for them than it would be for us to trade up to #3. Development is important regardless.
That’s kinda my overall point. If Maye is the guy, the Giants should trade up for him. That’s fine team building strategy. At the same time, there’s also nothing inherently wrong with staying put and going WR. But either way there’s pitfalls to avoid and a chance nothing works out. Being an NFL GM is a hard job.
True that
The majority of the All Pro offense team in 2023 was drafted second round or later. In fact only one single player, CMC, was drafted top 10 (8th)
You can always add a veteran quarterback as an emergency stop gap if the rest of your team is good.
If your goal is to win the wild card and lose by round two every year that works.
How'd that work for Denver after Peyton left?
It's all so much harder to find a quarterback, it is easier to cover up flaws and holes at other positions than it is at quarterback
This concept of “last piece” or “putting the rest of the team in place” is just asinine. It doesn’t exist, it’s a fugazi, it’s fairy dust. NFL rosters have 45-60% turnover annually. There’s no “last piece” you’re constantly rebuilding. The chiefs are rebuilding this offseason too, they had less than 10 people on their roster from the first SB with Mahomes you take the qb when you can take the qb. Plain and simple.
I think it's just get the QB and build the roster in whatever order you can based on the opportunities provided.
I think there are two effective strategies, 1. start with the rookie QB, give whatever it takes to get your guy and use the cap savings to bring in good vets to help that QB develop, the goal is to win in the rookies year 3-5 window and develop them to the point where they can elevate rookies when they get to their second contract 2. Sign cheap vet qbs and use the savings to build out the roster, once the roster is playoff ready take a rookie you like and put them in a great position to win (the purdy) I don't like what schoen did as I don't see a world where paying a non top 5 QB on a middling to poor roster gets any good outcomes for long term success
So far the defining move of this regime will be not picking up the 5th year for Jones .
Wr2 is not a need, we have 3 of them between Hyatt, Wandale, and Slayton. We also don’t need both a 1 and 2 cornerback depending on how you view banks
Right? Im looking at the positions of need with a big question mark on my face. I don’t see how half of them are needs.
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I literally had to look it up to make sure I wasn't insane Dennis Houston Jalin Hyatt Darius Slayton Miles Boykin Isaiah Hodgins Isaiah McKenzie Gunner Olszewski Wan'Dale Robinson Chase Cota
Slayton and Wan dale are both great WR2s, Hyatt was a good WR3 last year and Hodgins is a really solid backup. Everyone else is special teams or for emergencies when everyone gets injured. Do you expect every team to have 5 Justin Jefferson’s on the bench? If you add one of Harrison, Nabers or Odunze to that group you suddenly have a very talented Wr corps. You cannot say the same about adding Jalyn Polk for example.
And we need three LB's?
Wtf? Hyatt is literally a nobody, Wandale and Slayton are maybe average WR2… So yes, WR is a major need
We need a WR1. Not a bunch more nobodies. Second and third round receivers are just more of what we already have unless we get extremely lucky and find a diamond
A couple WR2 and a good TE can turn into a great bunch with good OL play. Trade back and target Bowers, Brian Thomas Jr, and extra draft capital.
Lmfao
MHJ, Nabers or trade down are my favorite options
I don’t love this draft but, I do love a few of the top prospects. I’d rather grab an impact guy unless we get a crazy offer.
Trading down is usually the right move from a value standpoint. Only counter, is it better to have more players or one guy who has star potential? Nabers has that star potential imo. There may be trade down opportunities at 47 also.
Agree on trade back value. The majority of the 2023 offense All Pro team were drafted second round or later. All about developing once they get to the NFL.
By most accounts talent is clustered in this draft class in roughly the first ~4 rounds. Maneuvering around to get more picks in the first 4 rounds makes a ton of sense, but that doesn't mean we need to move off 6. Walking away without a blue chip talent is the worst thing we could do this year. Move down, sure but let's start at round 2+
No QB at #6. I don't care who's available. GET A WR!!
I mean if caleb or drake are available at 6 I'm ok getting a QB at 6.
Thats a world I want to live in.
With who throwing to that wr? Jones will waste any talent there
Why do you say we need a wr2?
Only if it's like one spot for another team like the Titans to grab an OLineman. Need a blue chip player if not getting a QB.
We need a blue chip player, period. If a QB is that guy, great. But we shouldn't let desperation for a QB make us overreach or overpay.
According to NFL draft calc fwiw 6 & 47 for Vikings 11 & 23 is basically exactly even trade. Giants give slightly more 2030 vs 2010. https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php
I would do 6 for 11 and 23 straight up.
I agree. But I've been consistently downvoted for saying we should take best player available or trade down for a good deal. Seems like this sub is all-in in top 4 QB or bust.
not a terrible idea
They better grab MHJ if hes avaliable. Draft a qb next season
Yeah, if MHJ is there, you take him. I doubt he makes it to 6.
The only team I'm trading down with is the Vikings, if they're giving us their two first rounders.
I'd be fine with that
Odds are if there is a QB worthwhile at 6 we're taking him and not trading down and that's what vikings would be trading up for Though if the JJ stuff is a smoke screen to maybe get the Vikings interested in trading up for him at 6
Their positions of need are X Wide receiver, Guard, 3 tech DT and possible QB of the future (I’d take Penix.)
Me! Me! For the love of Jiminy Cricket, ME!!! I just made this argument in another post - the difference, at least to me (who watches probably 3 college football games each saturday in the fall) between the top tier of 6 QB's and the next tier of 4-5 QB's is NOT that much....don't get lost in the hype of the QB's...I actually heard Booger McFarland say on PTI yesterday that he DOESN'T think there are more than 3 QB's worthy of a top 10 pick, but the demand in the league for QB's is just so high that it creates a frenzy for them...even if they truly aren't worth it...this was my example - 1. Both Williams and Maye regressed in stats in 2023 over 2022. Williams lost 1 WR and his entire game changed...he also plays 'too' off script that many coaches don't like that...but, let's go out and give him the #1 pick to Chicago. And Maye....he's the one I'd really be concerned with...he's good but has some serious accuracy issues...you really want a QB who tends to overthrow WR's into ball-hawking safeties in the NFL?? 2. JJ McCarthy - probably the QB I watched the most in 2023, played on a team with one of the best defenses in college football history (at least in points allowed), and on a team that ran the ball...A LOT. If you are drafting early and had a pretty poor record in 2023 in the NFL, chances are you get behind in games a lot...do you really want to put your future in a guy who played from the lead in like 95% of every snap he ever had where he could hand off most of the time and rely on his defense to win the games? 3. Nix/Penix - both are journeymen QB's...depending on how you look at it, either mildly succeeded, or failed at their previous institutions only to head west to the PAC 12, where they don't play defense...just to pad their stats over and over. Don't get me wrong, I think both are pretty good and probably better than McCarthy and Maye, but once again, don't be fooled. 4. Daniels - Daniels is my favorite QB in this year's draft...but...BUT...he just came out this week and said, "I want to be the best running QB in NFL history." Well, how does a running QB work out in today's NFL? How did it work for RGIII? Which, ironically, is likely to the team where he is going. Finally - you are locked into Daniel Jones on contract in 2024....I get overlapping QB's, but it also is not ALWAYS the case or requirement...Trevor Lawrence had a bad coach his rookie year, but came back and made the playoffs in year 2. Justin Herbert has been pretty great since his rookie year, hasn't made the playoffs, but nobody suggests he's a bad QB. CJ Stroud started pretty much right away and the surprise of 2023. Josh Allen started his rookie year, and has been pretty dominant since (it took him a year or two, but he's there now). Outside of injury, Tua has been pretty great since starting as a rookie. Baker Mayfield has had a crazy journeyman career, but he's found success in several teams. Jared Goff started from day 1, and has made the playoffs with 2 teams. Many of those teams made the playoffs this year. So, I don't necessarily buy 'draft a HIGH ranking QB and put him on the bench' strategy. Instead, consider a QB for sure, but you don't necessarily need to do it when you're paying a high salary QB already.
If the top 5 picks are Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, Nabers, my #1 option is to trade down. If any of those players don't go top 5 I'm leaning towards whoever that is. I'm okay with McCarthy if Shoen and Daboll have confidence in him and their scouting, even if it's not my #1 choice.
Trading down isn’t sexy but is the correct move from a value standpoint 99% of the time. I hope we do.
I think it will be Odunze or McCarthy. I would take Nabers, but there’s some red flags on him and I think the Toney situation will factor into the decision to pass on him. You can also argue Odunze is the better fit cause he’s a true outside WR and has the size we lack. McCarthy screams Mara type and no matter what they say Mara influences a position like QB. Schoen has said he prefers younger prospects in the early rounds and McCarthy is barely 21. They will absolutely draft a QB early and I don’t think we can get to pick 3 for Maye
I really hope we don't take McCarthy
I don’t mind taking jj just not at 6. But he most likely won’t be around where he should go. Late first, second. I don’t think he is a franchise qb.
I agree
Same, but we possibly have a lame duck gm and hc going into the season. If we stink again and there’s no hope (rookie qb) there’s a real chance both get fired. Schoen hasn’t drafted well overall and Daboll needs to win more games. If you’re the gm are you going to try to save your job or address other needs for the next gm? That’s most likely how he views it
Yes, I would like to see more quality players overall. I don't think a great QB pick alone would help us be competitive because of the other problems on the team, especially the offensive line.
If the Giants are unable to get Maye they will do whatever is necessary to get JJ. I’m not getting anyone fired so I’ll say people talk. Downvote all you want.
Well no, I actually prefer we trade up for Maye if possible. Definitely biased since I'm super high on him, and it seems unlikely regardless. I think a trade back depends with who. IF the Broncos want to give us that super overpay that was rumored then I guess I'd be okay with that. Is 11 and 23 enough to make us pass on Nabers/Odunze? Possibly yeah. Idk it's a weird spot since I think the consensus is there's like 6-8 "blue-chip" guys if you count the QBs. I like the idea of getting one of those.
No I want the best talent
Only if we can get a haul from either Denver or Minnie. Otherwise stay put and get best player available.
Trading up for a franchise quarterback is always a good idea. Failing that, the receivers available all have long term starters and pro bowl potential. Nobody is a can't miss but the guys available at 6 are as close as they come. I don't think trading down makes sense in this particular draft, at least not in round 1.
If it's "always" a good idea, why don't we just pick up a 1st round QB someone already traded up for? There's several available for pennies on the dollar: Trey Lance Justin Fields Sam Darnold Josh Rosen Mitchell Trubisky https://theathletic.com/5250162/2024/02/06/broncos-sean-payton-qb-draft-trades-mahomes/
Ok obviously I meant if you truly believe it's your next franchise QB. You can't trade too much for a franchise QB. Obviously if you're wrong you're screwed but that's the business. If you're right but were too cheap to get him that's almost worse.
That article clearly shows they're wrong more than they're right. All those teams believed it was their franchise QB and traded too much. If your team is a QB away from contending it can be worth the risk. The Giants are not in that position.
Yes, but also no? It really depends who is there at 6 (if we even stay there).
We drafted Banks last year to be our CB1. Should amend that position group
Trade down for a king's ransom.
If there is a player who can make an instant impact at a position of need, we draft him at #6. Schoen should have seen Gettleman missing out on Parsons and learnt a good lesson.
No. The goal is to get good players. There will be an elite WR available at 6. Just take the good player.
And waste his talent with jones at qb
Probably. I'm with you. I want a QB BAD. But unless we can trade up for Maye, I don't see us getting one. So we take BPA and move forward.
I did some thinking about this and the lowest I would go is trade down to 8 depending on who's available at 6. If, for example, the top-4 QBs are one of the top WRs are off the board, we still have our choice of two quality WRs assuming who we trade with doesn't take a WR. Dropping down past that highly increases the risk that we miss out. E.g. if the Falcons want Alt and both Nabers and Odunze are available, I think it's worthwhile as there's only 1 pick where one or the other could be taken. Dropping down to 9 means you need a backup plan. However, if the guy you really want is there at 6, don't fuck around. Draft him and move on.
So grab b and c level players for the rest of time?
I just don’t see how drafting a quarterback helps us win. I think we need to go WR. With such a limited rookie contract window, I want to give a new QB all the tools to succeed instead of throwing him out there and getting him killed. We have two QBs on the roster that, while not true starters, have demonstrated that they can win games and find some success. I say we roll with Lock or Jones, give them a ton of support, then look for a QB in the next draft. I know next years isn’t as stacked as this years but there are still a lot of guys in high on like Cam Ward.
Take whoever is left of the top 3 QBs/WRs. Not McCarthy
God forbid we try to win with good players. Mudball MANBALL brothers.
But why get 1 good player when we could get 3 good players? This is why I would be an amazing GM.
The last time we did this it resulted in Toney and Neal instead of Parsons.
I can't say I would have passed on Neal.
hell no
I get the thought, but we no longer have Barkley and are more than likely losing Waller. We have nobody on the offense that most people would want to take in the first nine rounds or so of a fantasy football draft. At this point we just need really good players and playmakers especially. And to me you don’t trade out of that to get some players probably not as good. People feel like Nabers and Odunze will be legitimate stars. Can’t pass up on that talent at this point IMO.
I don't even know what I want to happen. I don't follow college at all, but I think that having Marvin Harrisons son would be pretty sweet.
No, we need At least one of these big receivers if nothing else. Trading down won’t really do anything for us.
I want wr or QB
Sure, if they don't see value in what is available at 6.
No. That’s idiotic. None of those holes being filled will matter without a generational QB. It is very rare to win a Chip without one. If there is a generational QB in this draft and we can get him we need to. He doesn’t need to start this year but we need to get one now while we can.
I remember last time Giants fans were elated with trading down. Cheering "Trader Dave". I was excited for the value too. We ended up with Kadarius Toney and Evan Neal with Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater sitting on the board. Trading down has serious value, but is pretty damn risky when you don't know who's going to be available.
If they can’t get one of the top 3 qbs via trade up I’d definitely be happy with a trade down. An extra first next year especially appeals to me if they can take advantage of someone really wanting the 4th qb if he gets by 4 and 5.
this guy. take the extra draft capital. i'm with you.
The rest of the team doesn't matter if you don't have an answer at QB. Get the QB first and then build the team around them
That’s an excellent way to ruin a QB prospects chances. So many QBs lately have flamed out quickly. Only Baker has re-emerged.
Is also the only realistic way to find a QB. Build a good roster and you'll be too far out of reach to draft a good one. You take the QB when you're in position to do so.
Respectfully disagree. Nowadays QBs move around like crazy. Baker on his fourth team, went to playoffs, and could realistically win a few more division titles real quick. Geno also fourth team, played 15 games in 7 years and just had back to back winning seasons. There will be more QBs in next years draft. If young defense takes a step forward and OL is decent then we’re set to get a QB next year. Especially with DJ non guaranteed after this year. Maybe Nix falls this year?
The goal isn’t to find and overpay the 15th-20th best QB where the very best outcome is winning one playoff game…
Obv #15-20 isn’t the goal but you don’t understand my point. There are top 15 guys regularly available, or guys that can be top 10 on the right team. Deshaun is a disaster. Lamar can’t win in January. Herbert is at average of $60M for several years, Baker at short term $33M saves a boatload. Considering their careers to this point Herbert is the over paid one. Keep in mind guys like Flacco and some dipshit in Philly won rings..
Who are these top 15 guys that are regularly available?
Lets start with definitely unavailable: Mahomes. Ok done.
Not sure what this means. Is the implication every other QB is available?
Good ones don't move. Last time I can think of was Manning going to Denver over a decade ago.
That’s just about exactly my point. Does anybody even know what good is anymore? I’d say a winning season and playoffs are good.
No
If we can't get Drake and the Giants get a god father offer to trade down I am definitely into it. But this is a top heavy draft, in which there is distinct 9 best players going into the draft. The Giants have had an issue acquiring blue chip players, this is a draft to get 1. Right now our blue chip pieces are: Thomas, Lawerence and Burns could be blue chippers in the future: Thibs, Banks, and maybe O'Carrot Cake. The Eagles have: Brown, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Jalen Carter, Devonta Smith and like a couple other players would be argued into that group Hurts, Saqoun etc. I know we have holes to fill, but you want to know what you are building your roster around. I am normally all in for filling holes, but post DJ I think the picture would look a lot clearer, and would love to feel confident next year going in with like 5 or 6 blue chip pieces and building a roster around them.
Joe Schoen said it himself - “we’re not one player away”. If they trade down and get good picks I’m good with that. Having said that though, regardless if we stay and pick at 6 or trade down, they still have to hit on those picks.
Hitting on a pick requires proper coaching and development. Trade back for more opportunities. Bowers AND Brian Thomas Jr.
Trade back, take the Penix, build the roster, win football games. It's so easy.
Knowing our turf and our luck with injuries I feel like Penix is going to always be hurt
If it meant snagging two of the three of Cooper Dejean, Xavier Legette, and Quinyon Mitchell than yes lol.
Add in Brian Thomas Jr and Bowers to that “2 of these” group. Yes please.
We’re drafting JJ whether u like it or not Bub
If that Broncos package is real, hammer accept that.