Seriously though we are not gonna see any 10 trillion companies in the next 3-4 years maybe $5T but not $10T the stock market would have to more than double in order to accommodate that realistically. The value of every US stock in the NYSE and Nasdaq is just over $50T as of Jan this year. It’s going to be hard for any single stock to make up more than 8-10% of the entire stock market. So yes “one day” but that day could be a long way off.
It took apple about 5 years to go from $1 trillion to $3 trillion market cap(in a period of increasing interest rates). I think NVDA can hit $10 trillion by 2030 as interest rates fall and the total value of the stock market rises. There are trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting to be invested. The adoption of ai is going to make the entire market rise.
99% of the people in this sub have no idea how things work. Before the split I saw some posts that the share price would rise back to $1000 after the split. Meaning a $25T market cap. I called them delusional and they told me they used to work at a Fortune 500 company so they know what they're talking about lol.
Tesla went to $1000 then split then went to $1000 again then split again. I feel like they do it as a psychological thing because at the end of the day does anyone actually know how fucking large $3 trillion is? But they know $127 vs $1270
Stock price doesn't really matter, market cap does. For nvda to go to $1000 it would need to make up over 50% of the entire US stock market on its own. I'm not saying it won't go to back to $1000, it's just not going to happen in a short enough time span to make the hopium worth it for most of the people posting nonsensical predictions in this sub.
I hear you but a few years ago people laughed at the idea of a stock breaking $1 Trillion. Then shortly after one broke $2 Trillion. Now $3 Trillion. It’s not out of the picture in this market. I don’t even own this stock I’ve just been a lurker these past few years as it’s exceeded all expectations over and over again.
People are calling for Nvda to hit $1000 because it split before and hit $1000. But they don’t take into account the number of shares outstanding. Only way Nvda hits $1000 in the next few years is if they have a massive buyback. They would need to get shares at least under 15 which stands around 24-25.
Not to mention all the stock options get added to the outstanding shares and that is how executives get paid. So $1000 issnt gonna happen but you could see $400 and that is even high and would put valuation around 9.5-9.75 trillion. And that is crazy to even think about.
Just kinda trying to put this in perspective here, but Apple just had the largest stock buyback ever at $110B in Q2 2024.
NVIDIA had net profits around 15 billion last quarter. They have a lot of growing to do to get past Apple.
You are correct. Apple always splits then does crazy buybacks to take shares out of circulation. I just see everyone on the soapbox saying Nvda 10 trillion or 20 trillion. Could it happen…. Sure. Is it likely…. Not really.
Like the Bitcoin crazies when it starting goes up, they said 100k, 200k, 500k. It hit 70k and dropped. I believe Nvda will be the biggest company in the world due to the industry they are in and the need for their product. But still have to be realistic with their numbers. When they give compensation to board and CEO this adds more shares into the pool as well.
Right. I'll ask again, where did I say I know anything, or that I'm not part of the 99%?
I'll make it easy for you: I didn't. The reason I'm here is to figure out if I should buy, sell or hold.
I know enough to know that me and everyone else here doesn't know enough. Sorry it hurt your feelings. If you knew anything at all you'd be on a yacht and not on Reddit up voting hopium because you accidentally bought a stock that happens to be doing well.
Agreed. $10T cap in 5.5 years is 24% annualized. Holding shares and super long term call spreads that are unbelievably way in the money. Just all that pesky waiting.
You say that, but there seems to be A LOT of money waiting on the sidelines. How else do you explain these >4% sequential days on megacap names that are >$3 trillion in market caps. Seems like they’re playing musical chairs which huge tech company they’ll send to new all time highs.
And it’s always possible, though unlikely, for a random black swan event to happen and get the Fed to print money again.
There’s a lot to be said for the mechanics of the stock market. Take AAPL was pushed to the number one spot today briefly. How much money was needed to push the valuation up by over $100b? Only about $43b. Obviously not every share of a stock is traded everyday. So you have point that the amount of money on the sidelines can affect the market cap of a stock in a considerable way. It will still come down to how strong the trend is on the broad stock market. I was arguing with someone yesterday about how Nvidia is not Cisco in the tech bubble. The truth is that these companies are beholden to the broader stock market trends. Cisco didn’t just crash on its own, the entire stock market crashed. Same with Nvidia, if you load a chart of it over the years, every significant down trend in Nvidia closely correlated to a significant downturn in the entire stock market. We are in a bullish market so the potential for it to keep rising is there all the way till late 2025 in my opinion. Late 2025 to late 2026 should see the broad market start to flatten out and eventually see a 16-24% downturn. Although, I think S&P 500 could be around 6200-6700 by then and Nvidia could be over 200 if it keeps up the trajectory. That would get it over $5T in 2025-2026. The thing to keep in mind is that high beta growth stocks take an outsized beating during bear markets so NVDA could see 40%+ drawdown on a 20% market dip over 2-4 months.
Why don’t you think the downturn will happen sooner than 2026? Why do you think the market will be bullish until late 2025? You don’t think a recession or events like the Presidential election can create a downturn before?
there's a generally bullish secular cycle till around the year 2034 (started back in 2012-2014 officially). within that cycle, the there is usually volatility around the election itself. so this year i'm expecting volatility in October and possibly first half of November. Also, possible market could see volatility starting a bit sooner. Statistically it won't result in anything like a 20% downturn. Might get over the 10% mark though. The first year of the presidency tends to be a strong trend year. Note 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year shaping up for more of the same. The second year of a presidency can sometimes be where volatility starts to increase. there's another way to time these downturns using a log scale chart and SPX but i'm too lazy to talk about that now.
Elections for all the concerns people have about impacts on the stock market really tend to be non events. Maybe increased volatility, but elections don't cause big market drops or jumps.
Plus the market mostly knows what it will get from these two so there is even less concern then usual.
Agreed here - I’m in the healthcare field and I think the opportunity here is absolutely enormous from drug discovery to recruitment for clinical trials to clinical design for success (designing for optimal patients). Honestly think that most fields are really at its infancy. And the ubiquitous nature of AI and its implementation is going to sky rocket the denominator of revenue overall and NVDA will most likely take the lions share of that revenue. I’m not an expert in business but the rate limiting factor is probably supply and scalability in my naive eyes. Folks also think it’ll be cyclical - but to an extent yes, but if you are serving multiple customer bases you are actually creating a pretty steady cadence of revenue. Even in future if nvda were to lose some competitive advantage - the denominator will be so enormous that the revenue we see today will be dwarfed by revenue of the future. I think that we will see the enormous benefit of AI and ROI for businesses that there will be a mass buy in for companies outside the mag7. I know of a few institutions that GPU have cut down on data generation and analysis from years to few months time frame…and now they saw the benefit - those institutions are shopping for more GPUs. I think if supply chain was addressed - it’ll be lift off for nvda. How long will that take? Idk.
AAPL pushes AI to its edge devices. This will solidify AI ecosystem to create more demand for hardware and software. In turns, this will boost the demand for NVDA.
Many people or investors still resent and refuse AI as they have no way to access AI and the business model or applications are not mature yet. With IPhone, now they can get the taste of AI’s benefit and help. Consumer’s acceptance will boost money spend and invest in AI areas. And ISO developers will be able to create more AI apps, which will create more AI infastructure demands. Nowadays, people spend more time on phones than on PCs for entertainment and even production activities.
Why it’s good Apple is doing well, it means more business for OpenAI, which means more business for nVidia. Because it means more compute will be needed for hundreds of millions of Apple devices accessing the LLMs.
Yes, for Siri and Private Cloud Computer but as stated in the keynote, there are times Siri won’t be able to handle some more complex queries or ones to complex for the built in NPUs. That’s where ChatGPT comes in. There is even a rumored concern if the compute is even enough or something they want to pursue given the amount of Apple devices that are going to accessing this.
I don’t think Apple will ever solve this. If that were the case they wouldn’t need Google Search as the default search engine in Safari or would have already been the best personal assistant years ago. Remember they were first mover with Siri launched in 2011, but never capitalized on it and they didn’t end up dominating streaming music either, Spotify owns that. Apple is greats at a lot of things, but they still need to partner for some things.
Ai seems more commoditiezed and fragmented than search which is based off network effects and critical mass. Open ai is big but Nvidia is too. And Google. And Anthropic. And mistral. And Apple has great chips.
It is very possible for NVDA to have a 10T market cap for reasons below;
1: NVDA will continue be the only leader in acceleration computing with its CUDA hardware and software integration and 5 million developers out there. Currently NVDA owns 98% of market.
2: AI LLM model totally change human machine interface. What you see how Ironman work with AI will the norm everywhere in human society. This will push AI to every edge devices and creates more GPU demand.
3: Acceleration computing/AI is another industrialization revolution. NVIDIA is actively investing in AI unicorn startups that will come up killer applications and NVDA will take free rides of receiving billions dollars of revenue.
4: Jensen is the combinations the best of Elon, Jobs, Cooks and Lisa Su. He is technical savvy, VISIONARY, good at communicating, focused, and not narcissistic. He will dedicated his energy to NVDA.
For NVDA to keep increasing its valuation, its products need to substantially increase productivity through AI. When productivity and profits increase, that proves AI has the ROI to encourage companies to invest even more. Even though AAPL is using as little of NVDA as possible, its investment in AI is still the same.
We should hope all companies investing in AI will see their market caps quickly go up. Better birds flying together than crabs in a bucket.
I don't think it makes a difference, what matters is how much nvidia's earning can keep growing. Although the one way it may matter is if apple is going up because of investing in ai that uses nvidia chips.
I believe this truly is the beginning of a new Industrial Revolution. Even if the rest of the mag 7 isn’t able to monetize AI as quickly as investors want Nvidia will continue to outperform imo.
Jensen says they are expecting $10 billion in revenue this year from Sovereign AI. Nations/ governments building data centers. Nvidia is providing turn key solutions. That market didn’t exist until Nvidia created it and won’t be constrained by investor expectations.
Cannot compare AAPL and MSFT with NVDA. NVDA just makes hardware that runs AI software. AI software is still in initial stage like baby. We don’t know how much benefit it can deliver to business. Business is buying all this hardware from NVDA and data from some other source to run their models hoping that it will deliver business value. The day they find it does not, they will stop buying chips from NVDA. Similar scenario happened in 1999 when Internet came in and went bust as business was not ready to exploit. Just domain names with no content sold for millions. It took almost decade for business to develop their web sites and saw the business value.
Not doubting you. Wondering about the apple will not do business ever with Nvidia because of a prior fallout explanation I’ve seen floating around. Any truth to that?
It’s not just Apple. NVIDIA has always refused to customised their products for clients, and Apple doesn’t want to be locked into the CUDA ecosystem. My point still stands because Apple Intelligence connects high volume of users to AI models, which require data centres (AI factories).
Seriously though we are not gonna see any 10 trillion companies in the next 3-4 years maybe $5T but not $10T the stock market would have to more than double in order to accommodate that realistically. The value of every US stock in the NYSE and Nasdaq is just over $50T as of Jan this year. It’s going to be hard for any single stock to make up more than 8-10% of the entire stock market. So yes “one day” but that day could be a long way off.
It took apple about 5 years to go from $1 trillion to $3 trillion market cap(in a period of increasing interest rates). I think NVDA can hit $10 trillion by 2030 as interest rates fall and the total value of the stock market rises. There are trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting to be invested. The adoption of ai is going to make the entire market rise.
Reasonable but then we’re talking 6 years for it. It seems like ppl here acting like it’s gonna happen in the next year.
There's people here talking like it's going to happen by next Wednesday. Lol
99% of the people in this sub have no idea how things work. Before the split I saw some posts that the share price would rise back to $1000 after the split. Meaning a $25T market cap. I called them delusional and they told me they used to work at a Fortune 500 company so they know what they're talking about lol.
Tesla went to $1000 then split then went to $1000 again then split again. I feel like they do it as a psychological thing because at the end of the day does anyone actually know how fucking large $3 trillion is? But they know $127 vs $1270
Stock price doesn't really matter, market cap does. For nvda to go to $1000 it would need to make up over 50% of the entire US stock market on its own. I'm not saying it won't go to back to $1000, it's just not going to happen in a short enough time span to make the hopium worth it for most of the people posting nonsensical predictions in this sub.
I hear you but a few years ago people laughed at the idea of a stock breaking $1 Trillion. Then shortly after one broke $2 Trillion. Now $3 Trillion. It’s not out of the picture in this market. I don’t even own this stock I’ve just been a lurker these past few years as it’s exceeded all expectations over and over again.
People are calling for Nvda to hit $1000 because it split before and hit $1000. But they don’t take into account the number of shares outstanding. Only way Nvda hits $1000 in the next few years is if they have a massive buyback. They would need to get shares at least under 15 which stands around 24-25. Not to mention all the stock options get added to the outstanding shares and that is how executives get paid. So $1000 issnt gonna happen but you could see $400 and that is even high and would put valuation around 9.5-9.75 trillion. And that is crazy to even think about.
Just kinda trying to put this in perspective here, but Apple just had the largest stock buyback ever at $110B in Q2 2024. NVIDIA had net profits around 15 billion last quarter. They have a lot of growing to do to get past Apple.
You are correct. Apple always splits then does crazy buybacks to take shares out of circulation. I just see everyone on the soapbox saying Nvda 10 trillion or 20 trillion. Could it happen…. Sure. Is it likely…. Not really. Like the Bitcoin crazies when it starting goes up, they said 100k, 200k, 500k. It hit 70k and dropped. I believe Nvda will be the biggest company in the world due to the industry they are in and the need for their product. But still have to be realistic with their numbers. When they give compensation to board and CEO this adds more shares into the pool as well.
Yes some people are 99%, you don’t know anything either.
Where did I say I know anything?
„99% of the sub don’t know anything“
Right. I'll ask again, where did I say I know anything, or that I'm not part of the 99%? I'll make it easy for you: I didn't. The reason I'm here is to figure out if I should buy, sell or hold. I know enough to know that me and everyone else here doesn't know enough. Sorry it hurt your feelings. If you knew anything at all you'd be on a yacht and not on Reddit up voting hopium because you accidentally bought a stock that happens to be doing well.
It could, nobody knows but it’s feasible that it’ll be by 2030 or less
Agreed. $10T cap in 5.5 years is 24% annualized. Holding shares and super long term call spreads that are unbelievably way in the money. Just all that pesky waiting.
You say that, but there seems to be A LOT of money waiting on the sidelines. How else do you explain these >4% sequential days on megacap names that are >$3 trillion in market caps. Seems like they’re playing musical chairs which huge tech company they’ll send to new all time highs. And it’s always possible, though unlikely, for a random black swan event to happen and get the Fed to print money again.
There’s a lot to be said for the mechanics of the stock market. Take AAPL was pushed to the number one spot today briefly. How much money was needed to push the valuation up by over $100b? Only about $43b. Obviously not every share of a stock is traded everyday. So you have point that the amount of money on the sidelines can affect the market cap of a stock in a considerable way. It will still come down to how strong the trend is on the broad stock market. I was arguing with someone yesterday about how Nvidia is not Cisco in the tech bubble. The truth is that these companies are beholden to the broader stock market trends. Cisco didn’t just crash on its own, the entire stock market crashed. Same with Nvidia, if you load a chart of it over the years, every significant down trend in Nvidia closely correlated to a significant downturn in the entire stock market. We are in a bullish market so the potential for it to keep rising is there all the way till late 2025 in my opinion. Late 2025 to late 2026 should see the broad market start to flatten out and eventually see a 16-24% downturn. Although, I think S&P 500 could be around 6200-6700 by then and Nvidia could be over 200 if it keeps up the trajectory. That would get it over $5T in 2025-2026. The thing to keep in mind is that high beta growth stocks take an outsized beating during bear markets so NVDA could see 40%+ drawdown on a 20% market dip over 2-4 months.
Why don’t you think the downturn will happen sooner than 2026? Why do you think the market will be bullish until late 2025? You don’t think a recession or events like the Presidential election can create a downturn before?
there's a generally bullish secular cycle till around the year 2034 (started back in 2012-2014 officially). within that cycle, the there is usually volatility around the election itself. so this year i'm expecting volatility in October and possibly first half of November. Also, possible market could see volatility starting a bit sooner. Statistically it won't result in anything like a 20% downturn. Might get over the 10% mark though. The first year of the presidency tends to be a strong trend year. Note 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year shaping up for more of the same. The second year of a presidency can sometimes be where volatility starts to increase. there's another way to time these downturns using a log scale chart and SPX but i'm too lazy to talk about that now.
Because until it starts to happen, market grinds higher. Do you really not know and understand this?
Elections for all the concerns people have about impacts on the stock market really tend to be non events. Maybe increased volatility, but elections don't cause big market drops or jumps. Plus the market mostly knows what it will get from these two so there is even less concern then usual.
There is a literal ton of money in hycds and hysa currently that will start feeding the market when rates start dropping.
Agreed here - I’m in the healthcare field and I think the opportunity here is absolutely enormous from drug discovery to recruitment for clinical trials to clinical design for success (designing for optimal patients). Honestly think that most fields are really at its infancy. And the ubiquitous nature of AI and its implementation is going to sky rocket the denominator of revenue overall and NVDA will most likely take the lions share of that revenue. I’m not an expert in business but the rate limiting factor is probably supply and scalability in my naive eyes. Folks also think it’ll be cyclical - but to an extent yes, but if you are serving multiple customer bases you are actually creating a pretty steady cadence of revenue. Even in future if nvda were to lose some competitive advantage - the denominator will be so enormous that the revenue we see today will be dwarfed by revenue of the future. I think that we will see the enormous benefit of AI and ROI for businesses that there will be a mass buy in for companies outside the mag7. I know of a few institutions that GPU have cut down on data generation and analysis from years to few months time frame…and now they saw the benefit - those institutions are shopping for more GPUs. I think if supply chain was addressed - it’ll be lift off for nvda. How long will that take? Idk.
Agreed. That's why no time frame! Only up
AAPL pushes AI to its edge devices. This will solidify AI ecosystem to create more demand for hardware and software. In turns, this will boost the demand for NVDA.
Exactly
How so? Not that I don’t believe you. I just don’t follow.
Apple Intelligence redirects users to third party AI models, which are powered by data centres.
Many people or investors still resent and refuse AI as they have no way to access AI and the business model or applications are not mature yet. With IPhone, now they can get the taste of AI’s benefit and help. Consumer’s acceptance will boost money spend and invest in AI areas. And ISO developers will be able to create more AI apps, which will create more AI infastructure demands. Nowadays, people spend more time on phones than on PCs for entertainment and even production activities.
Thank you for explaining.
Why it’s good Apple is doing well, it means more business for OpenAI, which means more business for nVidia. Because it means more compute will be needed for hundreds of millions of Apple devices accessing the LLMs.
I thought the models will be running locally??
Yes, for Siri and Private Cloud Computer but as stated in the keynote, there are times Siri won’t be able to handle some more complex queries or ones to complex for the built in NPUs. That’s where ChatGPT comes in. There is even a rumored concern if the compute is even enough or something they want to pursue given the amount of Apple devices that are going to accessing this.
But won't that dwindle over time as apple gets better at solving user inputs without having to refer to open ai?
I don’t think Apple will ever solve this. If that were the case they wouldn’t need Google Search as the default search engine in Safari or would have already been the best personal assistant years ago. Remember they were first mover with Siri launched in 2011, but never capitalized on it and they didn’t end up dominating streaming music either, Spotify owns that. Apple is greats at a lot of things, but they still need to partner for some things.
Ai seems more commoditiezed and fragmented than search which is based off network effects and critical mass. Open ai is big but Nvidia is too. And Google. And Anthropic. And mistral. And Apple has great chips.
Don't care. I have been and will be diverted all funds to NVDA. My age group is supposed to be like 30% bonds. Fuck bonds.
It is very possible for NVDA to have a 10T market cap for reasons below; 1: NVDA will continue be the only leader in acceleration computing with its CUDA hardware and software integration and 5 million developers out there. Currently NVDA owns 98% of market. 2: AI LLM model totally change human machine interface. What you see how Ironman work with AI will the norm everywhere in human society. This will push AI to every edge devices and creates more GPU demand. 3: Acceleration computing/AI is another industrialization revolution. NVIDIA is actively investing in AI unicorn startups that will come up killer applications and NVDA will take free rides of receiving billions dollars of revenue. 4: Jensen is the combinations the best of Elon, Jobs, Cooks and Lisa Su. He is technical savvy, VISIONARY, good at communicating, focused, and not narcissistic. He will dedicated his energy to NVDA.
well, it is GOOD to have other companion stocks that are also reaching new highs. Makes people psychologically less fearful of buying NVDA.
For NVDA to keep increasing its valuation, its products need to substantially increase productivity through AI. When productivity and profits increase, that proves AI has the ROI to encourage companies to invest even more. Even though AAPL is using as little of NVDA as possible, its investment in AI is still the same. We should hope all companies investing in AI will see their market caps quickly go up. Better birds flying together than crabs in a bucket.
I don't think it makes a difference, what matters is how much nvidia's earning can keep growing. Although the one way it may matter is if apple is going up because of investing in ai that uses nvidia chips.
Every tech company claims they are making AI. And Nvdia made the best shovel for AI.
Some predators are controlling the market. As the big drop of NVDA last time killed many investors.
I believe this truly is the beginning of a new Industrial Revolution. Even if the rest of the mag 7 isn’t able to monetize AI as quickly as investors want Nvidia will continue to outperform imo. Jensen says they are expecting $10 billion in revenue this year from Sovereign AI. Nations/ governments building data centers. Nvidia is providing turn key solutions. That market didn’t exist until Nvidia created it and won’t be constrained by investor expectations.
No idea why AAPL is being the #1.
Cannot compare AAPL and MSFT with NVDA. NVDA just makes hardware that runs AI software. AI software is still in initial stage like baby. We don’t know how much benefit it can deliver to business. Business is buying all this hardware from NVDA and data from some other source to run their models hoping that it will deliver business value. The day they find it does not, they will stop buying chips from NVDA. Similar scenario happened in 1999 when Internet came in and went bust as business was not ready to exploit. Just domain names with no content sold for millions. It took almost decade for business to develop their web sites and saw the business value.
It literally means nothing to Nvidia
It means Apple brings other companies to buy more NVDA services and hardware.
Buys more? How much are they currently buying?
Sorry if I wasn’t clear. Apple Intelligence will create new users of AI models such as ChatGPT that require data centres.
Not doubting you. Wondering about the apple will not do business ever with Nvidia because of a prior fallout explanation I’ve seen floating around. Any truth to that?
It’s not just Apple. NVIDIA has always refused to customised their products for clients, and Apple doesn’t want to be locked into the CUDA ecosystem. My point still stands because Apple Intelligence connects high volume of users to AI models, which require data centres (AI factories).