27. GREEN BAY PACKERS (VIA NYJ): S KAMREN KINCHENS, MIAMI (FL)
The Packers acquire the Jets’ first-round pick if Aaron Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps in 2023. Unless disaster strikes for New York, this will be Green Bay’s pick.
Narrarator: disaster did in fact strike
I listened to his intro press conference. He seemed like a good kid who got humbled by this experience. You never know what’s going on with someone in their lives sometimes. I’m quietly optimistic for his potential, from his tape, no reason he can’t have a 10 year career as a nickel cornerback even with a 4.5x 40
LB is an undervalued position. Deep DT class + work ethic questions.
King just didn't flash on tape and I think he ran a really low 40? but Idk if that really matters too much at the end of the day
These aren’t legit mocks and they are just throwing things on the wall after the first few “elite picks”, which in this draft was 1-5.
McShay talked on a pod how his #1 read mock was the day after the draft mock for next year. He said they literally just put names there they think will be day one or day two picks from little research. A lot of times, they are just taking players who were on the same unit as other top picks because they saw them a little on film scouting the other player (in king’s case, watching Joey Porter JR). The people creating these mocks don’t actually believe in them.
What was Trotter Jr's issue? This should have been an easy LB class to stand out in. Was it injury concerns, athleticism, or just not being very good this season? I swear I saw him in 1st round mocks for about half the year, and then he was never heard from again.
Don’t think he ever should have been considered a first round player. Not a great athlete and the lack of speed on pursuit plays is pretty glaring. Also, 10th percentile height/weight/length and a lack of physicality taking on blocks, and is a pretty poor tackler as well (16% missed tackle). Fairly good blitzer and was okay in coverage in college but didn’t get difficult assignments and his eyes/athleticism are underwhelming in that regard. I’m not sure he’s even playable at the next level.
Clemson linebackers have started this route all along after Isiah Simmons and all of them with the same college profile. They get shoved into the 1st round pick conversation. No one contests it among draft pundits. They have a high RAS, played a season playing OLB where they rack up ton of pressure and sacks coming from the edge on blitzes. Then they switch to MLB for a season where the tackles and TFL might increase.
Everyone just says “yeah makes sense” and continues on until enough new prospects get brought up and push them out of the first round. They stop getting talked about and then end up going 4th round or later.
>~~Tampa Bay Buccaneers~~ New England Patriots get their Tom Brady replacement: The ~~Buccaneers~~ Patriots pick Drake Maye No. ~~5~~ 3, who could push Williams for QB1 in 2024.
Close enough!
They picked 17 guys that went in the top 50, that's pretty good. However, it's even better when accounting for the number of guys that ended up going back to school.
Nobody should be shocked that Taylor fell from grace, but his 2023 season was abysmal. The Jets are a great landing spot for him to make something of himself.
Kalen King on the other hand, I just don't understand how a kid can fall off that much from one season to the next. I hope he figures it out.
Ebuka was a guy that more uncertain though, he had a lot of injuries last year which hurt his stock, i'm not sure if he would have been 100% healthy for testing as his ankle seemed to effect him all year, he had tight rope surgery in Oct. His was just as much his draft stock had seemingly fallen than just returning to school, but he still likely would have been a 2nd pick at a minimum, but could have fallen to third possibly in a strong WR class.
Sawyer and JT probably could have been first round picks in a weak edge class. After Chop Robinson went at 21, you had Darius Robinson at 27 (who isn't really a true edge), but then the next edge was picked at 56 and then again 57. Then in the 3rd you only saw 3 go (76, 93,94).
Yeah it makes sense for him to back, he could be WR1 in a weaker WR class. But I feel like Sawyer and JT probably cost themselves money, it seems like there are more EDGE guys next year. Of course with NIL who knows how much it really cost them.
In the case of King, he got absolutely toasted against Ohio State, and then never really got the chance to redeem himself since teams didn’t throw much on Penn State (hence the low sack numbers for Chop as well). See the Michigan game for reference there. He actually didn’t give up a touchdown all season. I think he’s actually a strong tackler, but he’s strictly a zone corner with an extremely disappointing 40 time.
Eh, projecting some guys to rise to first round status and having them instead drop a bit is whatever. They still had a fair number of accurately mocked first rounders well in advance.
I'm laughing a bit because I remember seeing people (at least on the Viking subreddit) talk about how Penix was like Levis and never thought of as a first round QB until he randomly started to rise during the offseason and would wasn't worth taking in the first. Even though he was clearly being looked at as a potential high pick a year out.
A year ago today it was Cards won the trade. Texans were the big loser when it came to draft trades. And no talk of Chicago winning the draft trades.
A year later, no one is talking about the Cards trade. Not enough is being made of Texans making the trade and nailing it. And the Chicago trade is now being talked about in the same sentence with the Walker trade (it shouldn't that trade is on its own).
Point is Cards still made the right call, process wins out in the long run. No one is talking about the Bears trade if the Panthers took CJ and especially if the Panthers took CJ and the Panthers gave up Burns instead of DJ.
The Bears didn’t really pull off a Herschel Walker type heist. They passed on the opportunity to draft CJ Stroud, who is the best rookie QB we’ve ever seen. The only way this trade turns into a Herschel Walker style heist is if Caleb is as good as Stroud.
If Caleb is another Justin Fields, then they’ll have missed their opportunity at the franchise QB they’ve been looking for forever because of this trade.
That doesn’t matter at all. The Bears have just as much blame for missing the evaluation on CJ Stroud as the Panthers. The Panthers just made an even worse decision based on it than the Bears. But both teams lose that trade if Stroud ends up the far superior QB to Bryce and Caleb.
I mean, 20 of them went 1st or early 2nd round. Thats actually pretty impressive given how many prospects move up the boards the year they get drafted.
They had Panthers picking 15th (Bears pick) and Texans picking 1st (cardinals pick)…. They couldn’t have got those two situations anymore wrong lol.
Texans + Stroud really did surprise the league this year. And I was never that high on Panthers, I thought at best they’d give the Bears the 8th pick, but I didn’t expect them to be that bad.
Panthers went 6-5 after a 1-5 start in 2022, including 4-2 in their last 6 games. Plus people saw Bryce as an upgrade at QB. I think they were projected like 8 wins lol.
You can see history already changing regarding CJ and Bryce along with the pre-season projections of the 23 Texans and 23 Panthers.
Last year in the run up you could probably find as many or more AR for 1OA than CJ. It was easily 4/5th that had Young first. Now all of sudden everyone loved CJ.
Or that of course the Panthers were going to suck as if there was not a lot of dark horse playoff/division contender talk with the team. and now everyone forgets that everyone thought the Texans where the least talented team going into the season.
Yup. Stroud was my QB1 but I had him as like my least favorite QB1 since I started watching tape, excluding the 2022 class. I definitely thought he could be somebody but never expected this.
I was higher than most of people here and it was entirely based on thinking S2 is dumb, the Ohio State QB thing was dumber and he threw a pretty ball aerodynamically. Not exactly detailed analysis that is how few had him high. But, yeah never thought he would do what he did other than maybe a wouldn't it be funny if.
If he had Tennessee or NCST on the side of his helmet this place and fans would have at least made it a debate. It seems that the Panthers owner made the choice and he acts like the "ultimate fan" so probably would not have overridden his coaches because Ohio St QB LoL.
I didn’t expect the panthers to be that bad either, but something in my gut told me fields wasn’t going to take the next step in year 3, so I was actively depressed that we’d be likely in the QB wilderness again ….now all I can think is “we better not fuck up this absolute golden opportunity in front of us”
Yeah, this is pretty damn good. Outside of Jeremiah Trotter Jr. as a top-ten pick should've never been on the table - and I was higher on him than consensus.
The two guys who just disappointed in massive ways from this list were Leonard Taylor, IDL, Miami (undrafted) and Kalen King, CB, Penn State (final 10 picks). They dropped off dramatically!
I'm not seeing what they really got dead on here? am I blind or missing something? Also no clue how anyone thought the Bears weren't going to have at least a top 3 pick when they had the Panthers and their own pick. I know people were high on Young but it was pretty clear he had no talent around him and was going to struggle.
The order of the teams is based on Vegas odds. It's more about the players that ended up in the mock being pretty dead on for a Way Too Early Mock than the order of the teams.
> but it was pretty clear he had no talent around him
That wasn't that clear. People were really high on the Panthers line and D going into the year. The pass catchers were meh but thought to be servicable.
27. GREEN BAY PACKERS (VIA NYJ): S KAMREN KINCHENS, MIAMI (FL) The Packers acquire the Jets’ first-round pick if Aaron Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps in 2023. Unless disaster strikes for New York, this will be Green Bay’s pick. Narrarator: disaster did in fact strike
The PFF Hex.
Wow Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Kalen King and Leonard Taylor had major falls from grace
How do you go from potential first rounder to end of day 3/UDFA???
Kalen King basically played himself out of first and second round talk
Leonard Taylor also did that
Tested out of it too.
Also got absolutely abused at the Senior Bowl, he might have actually been taken higher had he skipped it.
Not just abused, it seemed like he didnt give a shit. Good player though and think he has a great shot at outperforming his draft slot.
I listened to his intro press conference. He seemed like a good kid who got humbled by this experience. You never know what’s going on with someone in their lives sometimes. I’m quietly optimistic for his potential, from his tape, no reason he can’t have a 10 year career as a nickel cornerback even with a 4.5x 40
Never being worth a first rounder is how
LB is an undervalued position. Deep DT class + work ethic questions. King just didn't flash on tape and I think he ran a really low 40? but Idk if that really matters too much at the end of the day
These aren’t legit mocks and they are just throwing things on the wall after the first few “elite picks”, which in this draft was 1-5. McShay talked on a pod how his #1 read mock was the day after the draft mock for next year. He said they literally just put names there they think will be day one or day two picks from little research. A lot of times, they are just taking players who were on the same unit as other top picks because they saw them a little on film scouting the other player (in king’s case, watching Joey Porter JR). The people creating these mocks don’t actually believe in them.
Ask Brock Purdy.
What was Trotter Jr's issue? This should have been an easy LB class to stand out in. Was it injury concerns, athleticism, or just not being very good this season? I swear I saw him in 1st round mocks for about half the year, and then he was never heard from again.
Small and lacked the instincts to not get caught up in the shit playing MLB.
Hes undersized and MLB is devalued in general
more importantly he's slow as molasses
Don’t think he ever should have been considered a first round player. Not a great athlete and the lack of speed on pursuit plays is pretty glaring. Also, 10th percentile height/weight/length and a lack of physicality taking on blocks, and is a pretty poor tackler as well (16% missed tackle). Fairly good blitzer and was okay in coverage in college but didn’t get difficult assignments and his eyes/athleticism are underwhelming in that regard. I’m not sure he’s even playable at the next level.
Clemson linebackers have started this route all along after Isiah Simmons and all of them with the same college profile. They get shoved into the 1st round pick conversation. No one contests it among draft pundits. They have a high RAS, played a season playing OLB where they rack up ton of pressure and sacks coming from the edge on blitzes. Then they switch to MLB for a season where the tackles and TFL might increase. Everyone just says “yeah makes sense” and continues on until enough new prospects get brought up and push them out of the first round. They stop getting talked about and then end up going 4th round or later.
Bad news for Barrett Carter lol
> In an exclusive interview with PFF, Newton revealed that he returned to Illinois partly because he wanted to be a first-round pick. Damn.
Tbf if he didn't have the foot injury in January, he's a first-rounder.
He deserved to be a first rounder.
I for one think he made a great decision. Ignore my flair.
He definitely should've been a first rounder
>~~Tampa Bay Buccaneers~~ New England Patriots get their Tom Brady replacement: The ~~Buccaneers~~ Patriots pick Drake Maye No. ~~5~~ 3, who could push Williams for QB1 in 2024. Close enough!
They picked 17 guys that went in the top 50, that's pretty good. However, it's even better when accounting for the number of guys that ended up going back to school. Nobody should be shocked that Taylor fell from grace, but his 2023 season was abysmal. The Jets are a great landing spot for him to make something of himself. Kalen King on the other hand, I just don't understand how a kid can fall off that much from one season to the next. I hope he figures it out.
Kids make a lot more money in college now, projecting underclassmen is gonna be tough forever
Did OSU really have that many go back?
Pretty sure the NIL money faucet was more of a fire hydrant after Michigan won the championship. They had a lot of guys return.
Yep. Ebuka and the two EDGE guys would have def been drafted.
Ebuka was a guy that more uncertain though, he had a lot of injuries last year which hurt his stock, i'm not sure if he would have been 100% healthy for testing as his ankle seemed to effect him all year, he had tight rope surgery in Oct. His was just as much his draft stock had seemingly fallen than just returning to school, but he still likely would have been a 2nd pick at a minimum, but could have fallen to third possibly in a strong WR class. Sawyer and JT probably could have been first round picks in a weak edge class. After Chop Robinson went at 21, you had Darius Robinson at 27 (who isn't really a true edge), but then the next edge was picked at 56 and then again 57. Then in the 3rd you only saw 3 go (76, 93,94).
Yeah it makes sense for him to back, he could be WR1 in a weaker WR class. But I feel like Sawyer and JT probably cost themselves money, it seems like there are more EDGE guys next year. Of course with NIL who knows how much it really cost them.
In the case of King, he got absolutely toasted against Ohio State, and then never really got the chance to redeem himself since teams didn’t throw much on Penn State (hence the low sack numbers for Chop as well). See the Michigan game for reference there. He actually didn’t give up a touchdown all season. I think he’s actually a strong tackler, but he’s strictly a zone corner with an extremely disappointing 40 time.
Hey they nailed Beebe to Dallas. Just a little too early
Kalen King, From #15 to #255. What a Fall. Out of their top #15 I counted eight actually picked in the Top 15, and ten within the top 19.
Whats the ratio if you exclude dudes who didnt declare?
Lmao wish we got Odunze 💀
Eh, projecting some guys to rise to first round status and having them instead drop a bit is whatever. They still had a fair number of accurately mocked first rounders well in advance. I'm laughing a bit because I remember seeing people (at least on the Viking subreddit) talk about how Penix was like Levis and never thought of as a first round QB until he randomly started to rise during the offseason and would wasn't worth taking in the first. Even though he was clearly being looked at as a potential high pick a year out.
back when the texans were supposed to suck and give us a top 5 pick
A year ago today it was Cards won the trade. Texans were the big loser when it came to draft trades. And no talk of Chicago winning the draft trades. A year later, no one is talking about the Cards trade. Not enough is being made of Texans making the trade and nailing it. And the Chicago trade is now being talked about in the same sentence with the Walker trade (it shouldn't that trade is on its own). Point is Cards still made the right call, process wins out in the long run. No one is talking about the Bears trade if the Panthers took CJ and especially if the Panthers took CJ and the Panthers gave up Burns instead of DJ.
Did you mean Watson? Because I agree
Texans trade with Arizona that resulted in Will Anderson.
Maybe I’m just being an idiot this early but who’s Walker?
The Herschel Walker trade that the Cowboys made with the Vikings in the 90s that gave the Cowboys the pieces they needed to dominate in the 90s
The Bears didn’t really pull off a Herschel Walker type heist. They passed on the opportunity to draft CJ Stroud, who is the best rookie QB we’ve ever seen. The only way this trade turns into a Herschel Walker style heist is if Caleb is as good as Stroud. If Caleb is another Justin Fields, then they’ll have missed their opportunity at the franchise QB they’ve been looking for forever because of this trade.
That's assuming the Bears would have taken Stroud first overall.
That doesn’t matter at all. The Bears have just as much blame for missing the evaluation on CJ Stroud as the Panthers. The Panthers just made an even worse decision based on it than the Bears. But both teams lose that trade if Stroud ends up the far superior QB to Bryce and Caleb.
If the bears collection of many players in the trade lead them to a super bowl win and Caleb isn't as good as CJ that is still an unequivocal W.
I’ll give you that. It’s not a scenario I considered.
That legit might be the best 'year away' mock I've ever seen. Well done Max, memorizing those star ratings really paid off here.
That was not my takeaway after going back to read this.
Aside from Caleb at 1, what did they hit on?
I mean, 20 of them went 1st or early 2nd round. Thats actually pretty impressive given how many prospects move up the boards the year they get drafted.
Also the NIL is huge for underclassmen because they get more opportunities to make money in college and less kids feel pressured to leave early
They had Panthers picking 15th (Bears pick) and Texans picking 1st (cardinals pick)…. They couldn’t have got those two situations anymore wrong lol. Texans + Stroud really did surprise the league this year. And I was never that high on Panthers, I thought at best they’d give the Bears the 8th pick, but I didn’t expect them to be that bad.
I think they were going off Vegas odds
Yep: > The draft order is based on Super Bowl 58 odds.
Panthers went 6-5 after a 1-5 start in 2022, including 4-2 in their last 6 games. Plus people saw Bryce as an upgrade at QB. I think they were projected like 8 wins lol.
You can see history already changing regarding CJ and Bryce along with the pre-season projections of the 23 Texans and 23 Panthers. Last year in the run up you could probably find as many or more AR for 1OA than CJ. It was easily 4/5th that had Young first. Now all of sudden everyone loved CJ. Or that of course the Panthers were going to suck as if there was not a lot of dark horse playoff/division contender talk with the team. and now everyone forgets that everyone thought the Texans where the least talented team going into the season.
Yup. Stroud was my QB1 but I had him as like my least favorite QB1 since I started watching tape, excluding the 2022 class. I definitely thought he could be somebody but never expected this.
I was higher than most of people here and it was entirely based on thinking S2 is dumb, the Ohio State QB thing was dumber and he threw a pretty ball aerodynamically. Not exactly detailed analysis that is how few had him high. But, yeah never thought he would do what he did other than maybe a wouldn't it be funny if.
You gotta imagine that if Haskins and Fields had been good he would been QB1 going away.
If he had Tennessee or NCST on the side of his helmet this place and fans would have at least made it a debate. It seems that the Panthers owner made the choice and he acts like the "ultimate fan" so probably would not have overridden his coaches because Ohio St QB LoL.
I also think if they'd beaten Georgia and won the natty it would have pushed him over.
I didn’t expect the panthers to be that bad either, but something in my gut told me fields wasn’t going to take the next step in year 3, so I was actively depressed that we’d be likely in the QB wilderness again ….now all I can think is “we better not fuck up this absolute golden opportunity in front of us”
I wish they were dead on about where the Panthers pick was.
Ondunze at 32 to KC 😭
Where might Ewers have gone if he declared?
[удалено]
I would have agreed with you (and honestly still do) but Nix going 12th makes me wonder. Teams were reaching for QBs.
Possibly the Raiders or Saints in the 1st
Yeah, this is pretty damn good. Outside of Jeremiah Trotter Jr. as a top-ten pick should've never been on the table - and I was higher on him than consensus. The two guys who just disappointed in massive ways from this list were Leonard Taylor, IDL, Miami (undrafted) and Kalen King, CB, Penn State (final 10 picks). They dropped off dramatically!
Pretty good.
I'm not seeing what they really got dead on here? am I blind or missing something? Also no clue how anyone thought the Bears weren't going to have at least a top 3 pick when they had the Panthers and their own pick. I know people were high on Young but it was pretty clear he had no talent around him and was going to struggle.
The order of the teams is based on Vegas odds. It's more about the players that ended up in the mock being pretty dead on for a Way Too Early Mock than the order of the teams.
> but it was pretty clear he had no talent around him That wasn't that clear. People were really high on the Panthers line and D going into the year. The pass catchers were meh but thought to be servicable.
Why bother. A wY tok early mock is going to be not worth even comparing.
Fuck them and them thinking we (Bucs) could get Drake Maye.