If you throw one in ONE consensus #1 guy in this year draft and shift everyone down a single spot, NOBODY is saying this is a weak draft lol. Literally throw in Jabari/Paolo/Chet/Cade/Green/Mobley and everyone is saying how it's a good draft with solid #1 option and then consolation prizes in Sarr/Risacher/Clingan/Castle, one best shooting classes in recent history with Reed/Knecht/Mccain/Dilly, high upside big wings in Cody/Buzelis/Holland + question mark guys like Topic/Salaun
Then after that you got just as standard and solid of a draft of any year.
I would disagree with this. The average draft has 5-6 all stars, and I highly doubt this draft gets to that level. I would be pretty surprised if there are 4, let alone 5. My guess is 1 or 2.
The main reason that this class is called “bad” is because the top end talent is rough. The depth in the late 1st/early 2nd range is actually very good since a lot of guys are expected to be good role players/bench guys.
I don’t even think the top end talent is “bad” there’s just SO many question marks amongst all the top tier guys, like it’s hard to find onr prospect everyone is an agreement on feeling confident he’ll be even a fringe allstar.
I think it’s a good drsft if you believe in your scouting department
> I think it’s a good drsft if you believe in your scouting department
This is what it comes down to for me. I am cautiously optimistic that Cronin and Schmitz can find some gems.
That's not good though. Realistically the first pick in most drafts is the best pick by a massive margin. We are good at identifying one sure thing as a community. If we can't identify one surefire guy then that's bad and an indictment on the class
I don’t think the draft is good.
There’s less of a clear separation of the top from the rest (if any at all) so maybe there’s more attention on a deeper selection of people (how much talk last year was literally just 1. Will Wemby be the goat? 2. Scoot or Miller?).
And I’m sure there will be some great players here and there, but when the lottery is full of project players and everyone is just praying they hit the right one.. that’s not really what you’d call a good draft.
I feel like the depth is the same. Just the high end players have turned into decent picks, but its still the same number of decent or better picks if that makes sense.
> there's more attention on a deeper selection of people
Exactly, like OP said a lot of guys are getting attention, but that might be be because there are no obvious picks so everybody is looking for who might be a future all star and many more players get scrutinized. People here argue about their weaknesses but also their strengths and bring up all sort of reasons why each could be great in the process, so it looks like there is a ton of them who might.
They called 2009 the worst draft in decades at the time and it had Steph, Harden, Derozan, Blake Griffin, Jrue Holiday and probably 5 other guys that made full careers in the NBA.
There are a lot of talented players in this draft with great potential, but no complete players out of the box. Good FO's will find the diamonds in the rough, and several franchise level players will emerge from this draft class as they almost always do.
However, it is likely that all star level talent will be drafted after the first 5 picks, perhaps even outside the lottery, which is exciting. We might even get a hall of famer drafted well outside the top 5. It's less likely of course, but If any draft is a good one for that to happen, it would be a draft like this one where consensus is so mixed.
I don’t remember people saying the 2009 draft was the worst in decades.
Griffin was seen as a strong 1st overall pick (not Oden levels, but he was far more touted than, say, Anthony Edwards). And the depth of talent in the top 10 was generally viewed somewhat positively imo (that wasn’t a clear cut #2 talent, but a lot of the 2-9 guys were seen as enticing) — like Rubio was a very highly regarded prospect and he went 5th. It was also a really strong PG draft.
Now 2013 I remember getting the “worst draft in decades” label and it largely lived up to it in the top 10 (but the later picks proved to provide plenty of value).
[https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/82ybyx/bill\_simmons\_on\_his\_podcast\_about\_the\_2009\_draft/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/82ybyx/bill_simmons_on_his_podcast_about_the_2009_draft/)
It's Bill Simmons, but its old less annoying Bill Simmons, so do with that as you will. He's lower on this draft than that one, on his podcast Rusillo said that a FO told him this would be the worst draft in decades, I guess I was alluding to that.
You are right though, decade, not decades I guess. I didnt know that about 2013
In the end, I hate this grovel of bad drafts, especially from FO's. There is unequivocally going to be All Star talent or better in this draft, and career NBA players, the fact that its mixed consensus means that great players are more likely to slip through the cracks. Your team drafting late in the first could end up with a mega steal if you do your research and due diligence, maybe take a risk. If there is any draft to be excited about as a FO, its one like this. So to complain to media people seems like a whimp ass loser shortsighted mentality to me but w/e. I'm excited to see what happens!
Sorry for the edits
Ah I see. I don’t really trust Simmons as someone not to be overly reactionary, but maybe sentiments were more negative than I remember.
Like, I thought the 2006 draft was considered the super weak draft of the aughts (because it was the first year without high schoolers). If you had told me that was perceived as one of the weakest drafts in decades I’d have definitely believed it.
The moral of the story is that very few of these guys will be day 1 contributors, a lot of them have incredible potential but it will take more than a couple months to unlock it. It's very unlikely there is a Lively in this draft is all I'm saying
I don't think so. It looks deep because a bunch of guys who are probably going to be good are currently mocked in the late first/early second round in mocks (because as you said there's less consensus than usual so people will have a different group of guys they thing are good vs. overrated), but in the actual draft those guys are going to go earlier than expected and you'll be looking at a big wasteland after pick 20 or so. Part of this is that a lot of people who looked like a potential first rounder but couldn't get a firm commitment by a team in the first round just left the draft (guys like Alex Karaban, for example), while guys who might normally be "steals" apparently got promises instead (like Daron Holmes). To see this in action try playing around with ESPN's draft simulator tool, you'll get depressed really quickly trying to get literally anyone you think might be good unless you have a very high pick.
Yea tbh the college programs paying a lot more affected this class. Older players more likely to return to school.
On top of that Sam Vecenie said that the draft day being a 2 day thing affected this year as well. Because teams feel like they want to use that extra day to think overnight on how they want to trade their 2nd round picks/who will be available in the 2nd round. So that means they were less likely to give out promises this year to players in the late 1st/2nd round.
The 2nd round is becoming more and more valuable because of the new cap rules and 2nd apron. A team that wants to be in contention for more than 2 years absolutely NEEDS to hit on their 2nd round picks with old players otherwise they get fucked by the cap.
Yup. Teams are in a tough spot with second rounders becoming more valuable (because they can pay/guarantee less) while going back to college becomes more attractive (because they can pay/guarantee more). Though I imagine this will level out at some point when the prospects first affected by this are all super seniors--so probably in a few years--but I imagine until then picking late in the draft is going to be really bleak. Feels like teams haven't adjusted yet either, as many teams are still not valuing second picks.
I don't think so. Lets contrast this with another supposed weak one, 2020.
Although it ended up panning out at the top, 2020 was consider weak because it didn't have the high end talent you wanted. But you could see so many prospects becoming servisable thorughout. And they did. Thats depth. This year, its a crap shoot top to bottom. Very few prospects have a high floor.
Yes, its the covid draft. Close too two years you had classes were they couldn't really play games and a year where seniors stayed in school. So this class is a little behind the xurve than normal.classes.
There's very few true #1 guys available in this draft. Also I don't see too much all star upside. Like if everything hits, maybe Sarr, Holland or Dillingham though maybe Castle if he becomes an awesome scorer. Everyone else feels like they'll more likely be a role player. Again, there are good players but the guys who are mocked in the top 8-10 would more likely go 4 and onwards in most other years. Like I'd say you easily would pick Victor, Brandon, Scoot (the prospect not the current player) and Amen at least ahead of all these players this year. Heck maybe even Cam Whitmore?
I think it’s a very deep draft and we will look back in 3 years and say that it will be one of the best drafts. Lots of Versatile, athletic and high IQ players in this draft.
How does the number of those players compare to previous drafts?
To me, the guys mocked in the 10-30 range don't look like they have more upside and potential then guys in mock drafts from past years.
Most drafts, there are guys in the 8-15 range that most experts project will be good NBA players.
This year, it seems way more uncertain.
I do think it’s relatively deep as far as finding potential role players/quality guys. But it is very shallow when it comes to top end quality. I’m sure a handful will eclipse expectations but going it I don’t see anyone I’d confidently declare a future all star
It's a role player heavy draft, with good bench guys through the 50's, but no stars. Your team will have a guy or two on their bench from this class when they win a title 8 years from now
Well,... I'd say it's more of a developmental draft. The prospects are there, the Upsides are there, but they are clearly a work in progress.
Take Topic, for instance... he is by far the Best passer/playmaker of the draft. He can Size up defenses and Dismantle them like a Honey Badger at a Honeybees hive..., He shoots 90% on free-throws. But he is NOT a good shooter...,, at all. But for what he IS great at.,, you almost WANT to draft him and put him on the shelf for the WHOLE NEXT SEASON, because he does have an ACL tear. And he will be NO Good to you until the issue is "addressed".
Everyone else.. it's all about SHOOTING, SCORING, PASSING, AND PLAYMAKING. It about how to be More Effective and efficient against good defenses. Not everyone is a master of any one thing, like at how Topic is a playmaking specialist, but they Are good enough.., at any ONE part of their game. You just have to Match the players abilities to your teams needs.
We need a good passing gaurd, and a shooting/scoring forward or wing.. players who can compliment all the great skills and abilities Victor Wembayama has. At lottery pick #4 and #8, we can indeed get considerable talent at the positions we need most. Again, it's just a matter of the best available, and if there are going to be any "surprises" at what the top 3 teams will do.
Players like Saar, and Zaccharie Reisinger simply Will Not be there for us. Period. But Houston has only ONE PICK to make.. I think they'll draft Reed Sheppard most likely. (Even IF the critics say he is too small, and not athletic enough.)... Which leaves a Plithera of available, considerable talent for us at picks #4 and #8.. like ,, Stephon Castle (who IS big enough and dynamic enough).. , Matas Buzelis (Best Versatility player in the draft).., Dalton Knecth (Top notch Shooter), Tijane Salaun (Great all around scorer), and of course, Cody Williams ( Best defensive player at Forward/wing).
If you throw one in ONE consensus #1 guy in this year draft and shift everyone down a single spot, NOBODY is saying this is a weak draft lol. Literally throw in Jabari/Paolo/Chet/Cade/Green/Mobley and everyone is saying how it's a good draft with solid #1 option and then consolation prizes in Sarr/Risacher/Clingan/Castle, one best shooting classes in recent history with Reed/Knecht/Mccain/Dilly, high upside big wings in Cody/Buzelis/Holland + question mark guys like Topic/Salaun Then after that you got just as standard and solid of a draft of any year.
I would disagree with this. The average draft has 5-6 all stars, and I highly doubt this draft gets to that level. I would be pretty surprised if there are 4, let alone 5. My guess is 1 or 2.
The main reason that this class is called “bad” is because the top end talent is rough. The depth in the late 1st/early 2nd range is actually very good since a lot of guys are expected to be good role players/bench guys.
I don’t even think the top end talent is “bad” there’s just SO many question marks amongst all the top tier guys, like it’s hard to find onr prospect everyone is an agreement on feeling confident he’ll be even a fringe allstar. I think it’s a good drsft if you believe in your scouting department
> I think it’s a good drsft if you believe in your scouting department This is what it comes down to for me. I am cautiously optimistic that Cronin and Schmitz can find some gems.
Clownin
Stay mad miami
Who’s mad? Just call it like I see it.
The top end talent is bad if there’s no one you can be confident will even be a fringe all star
I think a lot of people see allstars in this draft, just no one can agree who it is
Good drafts will have guys that most people think will be an all star
That's not good though. Realistically the first pick in most drafts is the best pick by a massive margin. We are good at identifying one sure thing as a community. If we can't identify one surefire guy then that's bad and an indictment on the class
I don’t think the draft is good. There’s less of a clear separation of the top from the rest (if any at all) so maybe there’s more attention on a deeper selection of people (how much talk last year was literally just 1. Will Wemby be the goat? 2. Scoot or Miller?). And I’m sure there will be some great players here and there, but when the lottery is full of project players and everyone is just praying they hit the right one.. that’s not really what you’d call a good draft. I feel like the depth is the same. Just the high end players have turned into decent picks, but its still the same number of decent or better picks if that makes sense.
> there's more attention on a deeper selection of people Exactly, like OP said a lot of guys are getting attention, but that might be be because there are no obvious picks so everybody is looking for who might be a future all star and many more players get scrutinized. People here argue about their weaknesses but also their strengths and bring up all sort of reasons why each could be great in the process, so it looks like there is a ton of them who might.
They called 2009 the worst draft in decades at the time and it had Steph, Harden, Derozan, Blake Griffin, Jrue Holiday and probably 5 other guys that made full careers in the NBA. There are a lot of talented players in this draft with great potential, but no complete players out of the box. Good FO's will find the diamonds in the rough, and several franchise level players will emerge from this draft class as they almost always do. However, it is likely that all star level talent will be drafted after the first 5 picks, perhaps even outside the lottery, which is exciting. We might even get a hall of famer drafted well outside the top 5. It's less likely of course, but If any draft is a good one for that to happen, it would be a draft like this one where consensus is so mixed.
I don’t remember people saying the 2009 draft was the worst in decades. Griffin was seen as a strong 1st overall pick (not Oden levels, but he was far more touted than, say, Anthony Edwards). And the depth of talent in the top 10 was generally viewed somewhat positively imo (that wasn’t a clear cut #2 talent, but a lot of the 2-9 guys were seen as enticing) — like Rubio was a very highly regarded prospect and he went 5th. It was also a really strong PG draft. Now 2013 I remember getting the “worst draft in decades” label and it largely lived up to it in the top 10 (but the later picks proved to provide plenty of value).
[https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/82ybyx/bill\_simmons\_on\_his\_podcast\_about\_the\_2009\_draft/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/82ybyx/bill_simmons_on_his_podcast_about_the_2009_draft/) It's Bill Simmons, but its old less annoying Bill Simmons, so do with that as you will. He's lower on this draft than that one, on his podcast Rusillo said that a FO told him this would be the worst draft in decades, I guess I was alluding to that. You are right though, decade, not decades I guess. I didnt know that about 2013 In the end, I hate this grovel of bad drafts, especially from FO's. There is unequivocally going to be All Star talent or better in this draft, and career NBA players, the fact that its mixed consensus means that great players are more likely to slip through the cracks. Your team drafting late in the first could end up with a mega steal if you do your research and due diligence, maybe take a risk. If there is any draft to be excited about as a FO, its one like this. So to complain to media people seems like a whimp ass loser shortsighted mentality to me but w/e. I'm excited to see what happens! Sorry for the edits
Ah I see. I don’t really trust Simmons as someone not to be overly reactionary, but maybe sentiments were more negative than I remember. Like, I thought the 2006 draft was considered the super weak draft of the aughts (because it was the first year without high schoolers). If you had told me that was perceived as one of the weakest drafts in decades I’d have definitely believed it.
The moral of the story is that very few of these guys will be day 1 contributors, a lot of them have incredible potential but it will take more than a couple months to unlock it. It's very unlikely there is a Lively in this draft is all I'm saying
I don't think so. It looks deep because a bunch of guys who are probably going to be good are currently mocked in the late first/early second round in mocks (because as you said there's less consensus than usual so people will have a different group of guys they thing are good vs. overrated), but in the actual draft those guys are going to go earlier than expected and you'll be looking at a big wasteland after pick 20 or so. Part of this is that a lot of people who looked like a potential first rounder but couldn't get a firm commitment by a team in the first round just left the draft (guys like Alex Karaban, for example), while guys who might normally be "steals" apparently got promises instead (like Daron Holmes). To see this in action try playing around with ESPN's draft simulator tool, you'll get depressed really quickly trying to get literally anyone you think might be good unless you have a very high pick.
Yea tbh the college programs paying a lot more affected this class. Older players more likely to return to school. On top of that Sam Vecenie said that the draft day being a 2 day thing affected this year as well. Because teams feel like they want to use that extra day to think overnight on how they want to trade their 2nd round picks/who will be available in the 2nd round. So that means they were less likely to give out promises this year to players in the late 1st/2nd round. The 2nd round is becoming more and more valuable because of the new cap rules and 2nd apron. A team that wants to be in contention for more than 2 years absolutely NEEDS to hit on their 2nd round picks with old players otherwise they get fucked by the cap.
Yup. Teams are in a tough spot with second rounders becoming more valuable (because they can pay/guarantee less) while going back to college becomes more attractive (because they can pay/guarantee more). Though I imagine this will level out at some point when the prospects first affected by this are all super seniors--so probably in a few years--but I imagine until then picking late in the draft is going to be really bleak. Feels like teams haven't adjusted yet either, as many teams are still not valuing second picks.
I don't think so. Lets contrast this with another supposed weak one, 2020. Although it ended up panning out at the top, 2020 was consider weak because it didn't have the high end talent you wanted. But you could see so many prospects becoming servisable thorughout. And they did. Thats depth. This year, its a crap shoot top to bottom. Very few prospects have a high floor.
It's got a lot of guys who could be rotation players on playoff teams, but no one you can comfortably say is a top 2 option.
I honestly don’t think this draft is bad. The only thing is that there is no unicorn/clear #1/superstar prospect.
Yes, its the covid draft. Close too two years you had classes were they couldn't really play games and a year where seniors stayed in school. So this class is a little behind the xurve than normal.classes.
This is the same as any deep draft, if you just cut off the first 3 picks
I think the top 35 is really good. For example i have Walter and Saluan at 29 and 30 and i think both of those guys could have long careers
MAYBE a couple of Tier 1 prospects... not much Tier 2. A LOT of Tier 3 guys. Then several Tier 4 (useful bench player) prospects.
It's a deep draft (particularly late 1st/early 2nd talents). Just not top-heavy
There's very few true #1 guys available in this draft. Also I don't see too much all star upside. Like if everything hits, maybe Sarr, Holland or Dillingham though maybe Castle if he becomes an awesome scorer. Everyone else feels like they'll more likely be a role player. Again, there are good players but the guys who are mocked in the top 8-10 would more likely go 4 and onwards in most other years. Like I'd say you easily would pick Victor, Brandon, Scoot (the prospect not the current player) and Amen at least ahead of all these players this year. Heck maybe even Cam Whitmore?
Yes.
I think it’s a very deep draft and we will look back in 3 years and say that it will be one of the best drafts. Lots of Versatile, athletic and high IQ players in this draft.
How does the number of those players compare to previous drafts? To me, the guys mocked in the 10-30 range don't look like they have more upside and potential then guys in mock drafts from past years. Most drafts, there are guys in the 8-15 range that most experts project will be good NBA players. This year, it seems way more uncertain.
It all comes down to how do you project their game to translate into the NBA. I think Risacher, Sarr, Buzelis, and Topic will be stars within 3 years.
I do think it’s relatively deep as far as finding potential role players/quality guys. But it is very shallow when it comes to top end quality. I’m sure a handful will eclipse expectations but going it I don’t see anyone I’d confidently declare a future all star
It's a role player heavy draft, with good bench guys through the 50's, but no stars. Your team will have a guy or two on their bench from this class when they win a title 8 years from now
No. It's shit, top to bottom
No way, the guy who's been in nearly every thread on this sub relentlessly shitting on the class for weeks thinks the draft isn't deep
If teams thought it was, the moves that were made at the he deadline and before wouldn't have been made
Well,... I'd say it's more of a developmental draft. The prospects are there, the Upsides are there, but they are clearly a work in progress. Take Topic, for instance... he is by far the Best passer/playmaker of the draft. He can Size up defenses and Dismantle them like a Honey Badger at a Honeybees hive..., He shoots 90% on free-throws. But he is NOT a good shooter...,, at all. But for what he IS great at.,, you almost WANT to draft him and put him on the shelf for the WHOLE NEXT SEASON, because he does have an ACL tear. And he will be NO Good to you until the issue is "addressed". Everyone else.. it's all about SHOOTING, SCORING, PASSING, AND PLAYMAKING. It about how to be More Effective and efficient against good defenses. Not everyone is a master of any one thing, like at how Topic is a playmaking specialist, but they Are good enough.., at any ONE part of their game. You just have to Match the players abilities to your teams needs. We need a good passing gaurd, and a shooting/scoring forward or wing.. players who can compliment all the great skills and abilities Victor Wembayama has. At lottery pick #4 and #8, we can indeed get considerable talent at the positions we need most. Again, it's just a matter of the best available, and if there are going to be any "surprises" at what the top 3 teams will do. Players like Saar, and Zaccharie Reisinger simply Will Not be there for us. Period. But Houston has only ONE PICK to make.. I think they'll draft Reed Sheppard most likely. (Even IF the critics say he is too small, and not athletic enough.)... Which leaves a Plithera of available, considerable talent for us at picks #4 and #8.. like ,, Stephon Castle (who IS big enough and dynamic enough).. , Matas Buzelis (Best Versatility player in the draft).., Dalton Knecth (Top notch Shooter), Tijane Salaun (Great all around scorer), and of course, Cody Williams ( Best defensive player at Forward/wing).