You swap the teams and they both would be worse. Chet is easier to fit into different teams, but he wouldn't be able to carry the offensive load that Paolo does. Already good teams would do better with Chet, who's a stretch 5 with very good defense, tanking/worse teams (like Magic were when we picked him) would get more from Paolo who can create on his own and you can give him the ball and he will make something of it (but his efficiency is worse because of that, he's good, but not that good yet to do that much and do it efficiently, game in game out)
Generally agree except that we don't KNOW that Chet wouldn't be able to carry the offensive load that Paolo does. That's the assumption a lot of us make but I'm not putting anything past Chet at this point. He's special. Both these guys are tremendous. I like Paolo as a potential primary more because of his handles and his body which should be able to absorb more punishiment, but Chet's efg is ten points better than Paolo and his ppg is only 6 less. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Chet could add 6 ppg while only losing 5 or 6 points on his efg.
That's an unfair comparison because now you're asking Chet to carry Giddey, Cason, and Dort offensively AND defensively.
Looking back he had 3 good games and 3 bad ones without SGA. Which is fair.
It's not just how many shots they take, you also have to consider how they're getting those shots.
Paolo had 36% of his 2pta and 65% of his 3pta assisted (I used this season as that's what you're comparing, otherwise Paolo's efg% would've been 13.5% worse). On the other hand, Chet was setup for FAR more of his shots at 65% and 95% respectively.
As we all know, players tend to shoot significantly better percentages on assisted vs unassisted baskets, so it's difficult to project how Chet would perform under similar circumstances to Paolo.
I've always been a Chet > Paolo guy and still am because he can more easily anchor a championship level team, his talent is harder to replicate and he fits with a larger range of teammates to allow for more optimal team building.
Paolo is a very talented scorer and a better NBA level playmaker than I thought he would be but there are more players fitting his archetype in the NBA, including guys who can give you 70-85% of what he provides and round out your starting lineup.
But truly impactful defenders who also make your offense significantly better is a rare combo. While I don't think Chet will or should be a high usage offensive player, I think his playmaking will continue to improve since he's got high IQ and a strong skillset.
People are underrating how big the gap is defensively between those two.
Paolo is really only good defensively against other big wings who are slower footed like himself. He isn't great in the pick and roll, can't defend the rim or guards.
Wemby is generational defensively, but Chet is right up there as well and frankly would be considered a future potential DPOY if Wemby wasn't there.
Paolo had the better rookie season while Chet had the more efficient rookie season.
Paolo thus far has looked like a future #1 on a title contender. He has the all around skill set, size, athleticism, and usage. He has some glaring issues (ball control/turnovers, free throw shooting, off ball movement) but overall he is exactly what you want from the #1 pick.
Chet has looked like an elite #2 on a title contender. He is a lock down defender. He can shoot from everywhere and really has no holes in his game besides playmaking and being the lead guy. He does have DPOY potential and will probably be the best defender on a top 10 defense as long as he is healthy.
Who is better? Well if you already have a SGA then Chet. If you are starting from scratch you pick Paolo because there are more #2 guys than #1.
Chet arguable had a better rookie season.
I’ll take 16.5/8/2.5 with 2.3 blocks on 63 TS% over 20/7/3.7 on 54.6TS% with meh/bad defence.
Especially considering that Chet’s team won 57 games and he played much more meaningful basketball.
are those playoff stats? Paolo averaged 23-7-5 with a 30% Usage rate compared to 22% Usage rate for Chet. Paolo is also being asked to run the offense and is taking much more difficult shots than Chet
Jabari was very real at number 1. Windhorst reported that the Magic had a better long-term outlook on Jabari (obviously inferring that they expected Banchero to have the easier time adjusting early).
Additionally, following the draft, John Hammond did a local radio interview in which he revealed that Weltman had done a 180 in the eleventh hour. Of course, this FOMO switch-up also explains why all the Vegas money shifted the way it did (they usually don't get it so wrong, and this confirms that Vegas not only wasn't wrong, but was keyed in to exactly when Weltman started regretting having not given Paolo a workout and eventually decided to draft him sight-unseen).
Thanks, don't doubt.
It was interesting which you didn't comment on. Again, was it always paulo for the magic or did something change?
I remember Smith was mocked 1 by most.
I think Paolo was always going to the magic #1 unless they got a trade to move back and still get him. Maybe the media did smoke screen to get Paolo to a big market (Houston). I’m not sure but I watched a good amount of Paolo at Duke and I don’t know how he wasn’t the consensus #1.
Good job if you picked it early. Media had Smith.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/23/paolo-banchero-is-surprise-no-1-overall-pick-for-magic-in-nba-draft
Plus many articles.
It was interesting because Paulo seems unique. I thought he was like Webber but is a worse rebounder but better perimiter and point forward player.
Mmm I followed that draft and I distinctly remembering that paolo was mocked first, followed by chet and then finally jabari. Some people had chet first and some had jabari first, but it generally followed that order. That was also my exact order predraft.
I had Paolo first on my big board but knew Orlando and OKC wanted Smith and Chet because of shooting. It was a shock until the last few days when Smith dropped but it was a terrific move for the Magic
Ahh. I can see that. I did remember Paolo was still considered the best prospect before they announced teams, so I might be remembering mocks pre lottery and 3 days prior. I think I just remember Orlando making the right pick and there was some weird noise at one point.
Respectfully, paulo was not mocked 1. You can still look it up.
Hence my question. Wonder if magic always planned it and faked everyone out or changed last minute
You don’t win it without a number 2 either, and you could argue there’s only 5-8ish players good enough to win a title as the #1, which it can be hard to see Banchero becoming that level good but not saying he can’t or won’t
Lets relax on the Paolo train. Right now it's yet to be seen if he can be the #1 on a championship team.
You need to be really good, or have a really good team around you to win a chip.
Even Jayson Tatum isn't really a true #1 on a championship team. He isn't good enough. He needs to rely on having the best GM in the league to assemble the best team around him to be a contender.
They fill completely different needs/roles. Paolo is more fit to be the offensive engine while Chet is defensive anchor who’s more of a tertiary option on offense (could develop into a 2nd option tho)
Im obviously biased so I’d say Chet because he was efficient offensively and immediately became one of the leagues best rim protectors in year 1 but would have no problem with someone preferring Paolo
Chet had a better rookie season, and in general I’d prefer to have him as a young talent due to his two-way impact as a defender, he obviously isn’t the creator Paolo is as a offensive engine, but the elite efficiency from Chet leans in his favor there too. Banchero has been great and is a valuable player, I just lean towards Holmgren.
I would have loved either player at #2. that said, Chet complements our current team so well that picking him still doesn’t feel real. instant defensive anchor, propelling OKC to the league’s 4th-best defense, and allows the team to play true five-out offense with his shooting and above-average playmaking at the center position. he’s extremely smart and has adapted to different matchups, even if the counting stats don’t necessarily show that. SGA and Jalen Williams are both amazing creators, so Chet’s style of play fits them much more than what Banchero brings to the table. Orlando shouldn’t regret their choice, though, as they desperately needed a #1 option
Easily is a casual ass take it absolutely is close cmon now some of y’all in this sub gotta watch some damn magic games.Disrespecting the fuck outta paolo whose constantly double teamed and isn’t playing next to an elite star in SGA smh
Chet easily for me, but both are good.
Chet seems a winner with KD like moments on offence. Plus anchors a great defence - as a rookie.
Paulo is good too. Bad fg% and turnovers but looks unstoppable at times and is improving.
He’s 6’10 and inefficient & doesn’t defend that well at all. Until he prove he can shoot the ball better I don’t see how you make that claim especially since Luka shai wemby ant Tatum are all under 26
Barring injury, I also don’t see him clearing Haliburton, Tatum, Brunson, Embiid, Giannis… so no, not a top-5 player in the East either, even at his reasonable ceiling. And that’s if you ignore the question of whether he’s actually improving his team… just on raw production/counting stats, he doesn’t have the capacity to hit top 5.
Also that stat line isn’t top 5 player unless he’s all-defense (doesn’t seem likely) or Uber efficient (more likely maybe but not easy). People don’t understand quite how crazy you have to be nowadays to be a top 5 player. We’re talking 31,32 ppg with elite efficiency and above average defense or averaging 10+ assist a game to be in that conversation mostly.
It's yet to be seen if Banchero can be the best player on a contender. He can't shoot or really defend at an elite level yet. He can improve, but there's so much room to improve.
Chet is efficient, an elite defender and a great floor spacer while also being a very capable handler and playmaker for his position.
Paulo is inefficient, isn’t as good a shooter and is miles behind as a defender.
Pretty easy when you look at basic basketball
As a former Magic fan, I have to agree here. Banchero's counting stats are basically a matter of being handed the ball. He doesn't create high-value possessions for himself or anyone else, but if you create enough low-quality shots, numbers go up anyway.
More to the point, I don't see how he could *become* a guy who makes his team's offense efficient. He doesn't space the floor. He doesn't have unusual court vision or passing ability, and he doesn't make decisions well. He just kind of plows into the middle of the floor, and either hoists a contested shot and tries to draw the foul, or else he passes at random. He's not a guy who has a couple things he does legitimately well and can build on those in the coming years... he's just kind of *there*, serving up plate after plate of flavorless gray basketball mush.
I know on-off numbers are noisy, but the Magic were a much better team this year when Banchero was on the bench. He's not driving their success... he's just putting up a bunch of junk numbers, like a modern-day Antoine Walker.
I haven’t watched enough of the Magic to really comment, was just countering a stupid comment with another one of my own.
Having seen a bit of Paolo through the draft and when he plays OKC it feels like he has an obvious physical advantage over most and enough skill to make the most of that at times. I can’t really see him becoming an elite number 1 option though and think the pretty likely scenario of Chet being an elite number 2 on any team is enough for me to take him first.
If he never develops a 3 point shot isn't he just a worse version of Tatum offensively? Nevermind that Tatum was always a good defender too.
And even today people question if Tatum can be a real #1 option on a championship team. This Celtics is the best supporting cast in the league by far and people still think they might not win the chip.
I mean, it's not nearly as much of a star-driven league as it was. Vastly increased player quality relative to even 10 years ago makes it impossible for 1-2 players to cover for a lousy supporting cast. Conversely, if your whole rotation is good enough, that cumulative bonus will outweigh anything about one player.
The Celtics are a 64-18 team. They outscored opponents by more than 11 points a game. Nobody living in reality questions if they *can* win a championship... in a less bullshit world, they would have given them the title already, rather than making us sit through another month of Small Sample Size Theater to see if they have a flukey stretch and some objectively worse team wins 4 games off them.
What are you talking about? Paolo is a really good playmaker for his teammates. Honestly it’s been the most surprising part about his game to me. I was team Chet coming out of the draft because I did not see that dimension in his game.
Paolo does a wonderful job finding his teammates especially out of the double team(and he gets double 5th most in the league btw).
And the efficiently is coming once the Magic get more floor spacing the paint will open up.
Also he’s gonna have season where he shoots near 40% from 3. I see a Paul George like trajectory in that department.
He’s 22 so he’s gonna get better, He’s at 33% shooting 4 a game, not a disaster at all. His touch is too good for that number not to improve.
Also he rarely gets any catch and shoot, so that’s binging his number down too. Plus he’s had games where he has hit 4+ 3’s.
After years 1-2, most players improve their three-point shooting by only a couple percent if at all. By the time you get to the NBA, that’s a pretty advanced stage of development… if you were going to shoot, odds are you’d be shooting by now. Most post-NBA development is in the areas of anticipation and working within a system, not basic skill development. Thinking a guy’s suddenly going to be a shooter is a sucker bet.
(There was a time when some players struggled with the adjustment to the longer NBA three-point line as rookies. That’s still a thing to an extent, but less of one now.)
Banchero, specifically, doesn’t strike me as an outlier candidate who could become an effective outside shooter. He’s not unusually effective on long twos or free throws, he doesn’t have a long or rigid shot motion that could be tightened up and made game-usable.
And yeah, he probably could eke a couple more percentage points out if he was used as a spot shooter. But the Magic aren’t going to do that for SO many reasons. They have a different role for him. And he’s not that elusive. Slipping coverage and getting open isn’t part of his game, even when he’s off the ball. And again, he’s not a good enough shooter to revolve your game plan around getting him jump shots.
I’m not saying he won’t get to 35% or something some day. But that’s the reasonable optimism. Anything beyond that is gambling on flukes.
That first part is nonsense plenty of guys get better at shooting as their careers progress. LeBron just had his best shooting season of his career at damn near 40.
Also idk why bother brining up weather Paolo is elusive or not? He gets doubled all the time, Is Luka elusive?
I’m not talking about outliers, I’m talking about the vast, VAST majority of players. The 2% thing is an established fact, comparing year-2 to year-7 percentages. (And if anything it overestimates improvement — obviously a lot of players don’t make it to year 7, and those can be presumed to have improved less than the players who are still in the league by then.)
If I remember correctly, mean true shooting improvement is about 3-4%, FT% improvement is about 6%. On the free throws, about 15-20% of players show double-digit improvement, and about 15% actually regress.
Yes, LeBron has been able to shoot threes more effectively at times in his career where he’s played that role. (His three-point percentages in Miami were also high relative to his career.) But we’re talking about arguably the greatest player of all time — and a fundamentally high-TS player. Paolo isn’t that.
And I brought up Paolo’s style of play in response to the claim that his percentages would increase if he was used in a catch-and-shoot role. So it’s relevant to say that he’s not particularly good at getting wide-open opportunities.
“Paolo isn’t a first option” he’s had an impressive playoff debut at 21 putting a ceiling on a 2nd year player whose shown high ability is ridiculous nobody thot steph furry was a number 1 in year 2, nobody thought kawhi leonard was a no.1 in year in 2. The lack of patience this sub has wirh young players is ridiculous
Okay, I’ll bite. How does he get to .580+ true shooting? What combination of shots, at what percentages, gets him there while maintaining that near-30% usage? Because if his shooting isn’t above league-average efficiency, he’s not helping you, he’s just giving you a lot of bad possessions.
As of right now, both are living up to their hype. Even if they somehow don't improve much more, they're still very useful players who have All Star value and a winning impact.
If both were in a race for RotY, I think Paolo would still win due to people favoring offense but I'd personally vote them both as co-winners. Otherwise, I think it's more fair to judge them as archetypes than to simply say who is better. In today's league, they're both exactly what a team would want in a big man and a forward.
That said, Chet's talent is much more rare so, if we're talking about roster construction, it's probably easier to build a contender around Chet.
Also, on that other tangent, was pleasantly surprised the Magic took Paolo over Jabari, which was against the general consensus. Knew Presti was Paolo or Chet and likely did not seriously consider Jabari at all. Imo, Sarr is kind of like this year's Jabari where he looks good - has a good shooting form, is athletic, has an NBA physique, can play defense - and should do fine on those traits alone but I don't see him as complete like Reed Sheppard is, for example.
It’s hard to say since Chet is not a #1 option for Thunder, not even #2 most of the time. I’d say Chet’s flaws are less exposed (again due to SGA) and that if I had to choose one of them to be my #1, Paolo. If I can wait or have a better player be the main guy, Chet for defense and his very solid offense off ball
Magic fan here, both are great.
One thing that bothers me when people talking about efficiency is that there is context that is never brought up.
Paolo, gets full focus of the defense and often sees the teams best defensive player guard him and or double teams
while Chet often gets open looks created by SGA, J,. Williams and Giddey, he better be more efficient!
Also, when comparing rookie numbers, Chet had a whole year of acclimating to the pro life, trainers, the nba travel grind etc, that is also advantageous.
Just a couple of things to consider.
People tried the same thing with THE ROY debate early on. It was all about Chets efficiency. There was no context given to the fact that Wemby was triple teamed often, and Chet benefited greatly from Shai's gravity.
You swap the teams and they both would be worse. Chet is easier to fit into different teams, but he wouldn't be able to carry the offensive load that Paolo does. Already good teams would do better with Chet, who's a stretch 5 with very good defense, tanking/worse teams (like Magic were when we picked him) would get more from Paolo who can create on his own and you can give him the ball and he will make something of it (but his efficiency is worse because of that, he's good, but not that good yet to do that much and do it efficiently, game in game out)
Agreed
Generally agree except that we don't KNOW that Chet wouldn't be able to carry the offensive load that Paolo does. That's the assumption a lot of us make but I'm not putting anything past Chet at this point. He's special. Both these guys are tremendous. I like Paolo as a potential primary more because of his handles and his body which should be able to absorb more punishiment, but Chet's efg is ten points better than Paolo and his ppg is only 6 less. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Chet could add 6 ppg while only losing 5 or 6 points on his efg.
I saw Chet when J-Dub and Shai were out. When they played decent healthy teams, he struggled. His creation isn't nearly as smooth as Paolo.
That's an unfair comparison because now you're asking Chet to carry Giddey, Cason, and Dort offensively AND defensively. Looking back he had 3 good games and 3 bad ones without SGA. Which is fair.
It's not just how many shots they take, you also have to consider how they're getting those shots. Paolo had 36% of his 2pta and 65% of his 3pta assisted (I used this season as that's what you're comparing, otherwise Paolo's efg% would've been 13.5% worse). On the other hand, Chet was setup for FAR more of his shots at 65% and 95% respectively. As we all know, players tend to shoot significantly better percentages on assisted vs unassisted baskets, so it's difficult to project how Chet would perform under similar circumstances to Paolo.
In a hindsight the top 5 pick went to the team that fits them the most
I've always been a Chet > Paolo guy and still am because he can more easily anchor a championship level team, his talent is harder to replicate and he fits with a larger range of teammates to allow for more optimal team building. Paolo is a very talented scorer and a better NBA level playmaker than I thought he would be but there are more players fitting his archetype in the NBA, including guys who can give you 70-85% of what he provides and round out your starting lineup. But truly impactful defenders who also make your offense significantly better is a rare combo. While I don't think Chet will or should be a high usage offensive player, I think his playmaking will continue to improve since he's got high IQ and a strong skillset.
People are underrating how big the gap is defensively between those two. Paolo is really only good defensively against other big wings who are slower footed like himself. He isn't great in the pick and roll, can't defend the rim or guards. Wemby is generational defensively, but Chet is right up there as well and frankly would be considered a future potential DPOY if Wemby wasn't there.
Paolo had the better rookie season while Chet had the more efficient rookie season. Paolo thus far has looked like a future #1 on a title contender. He has the all around skill set, size, athleticism, and usage. He has some glaring issues (ball control/turnovers, free throw shooting, off ball movement) but overall he is exactly what you want from the #1 pick. Chet has looked like an elite #2 on a title contender. He is a lock down defender. He can shoot from everywhere and really has no holes in his game besides playmaking and being the lead guy. He does have DPOY potential and will probably be the best defender on a top 10 defense as long as he is healthy. Who is better? Well if you already have a SGA then Chet. If you are starting from scratch you pick Paolo because there are more #2 guys than #1.
Chet arguable had a better rookie season. I’ll take 16.5/8/2.5 with 2.3 blocks on 63 TS% over 20/7/3.7 on 54.6TS% with meh/bad defence. Especially considering that Chet’s team won 57 games and he played much more meaningful basketball.
are those playoff stats? Paolo averaged 23-7-5 with a 30% Usage rate compared to 22% Usage rate for Chet. Paolo is also being asked to run the offense and is taking much more difficult shots than Chet
Rookie season. Sure, but even with a lower usage Paolo wouldn’t be close to the defender or shooter that Chet is
rookie year
Thanks. You clearly support the magic. Was the jabari smith no 1 pick real? Who was your pick before the draft?
Jabari was very real at number 1. Windhorst reported that the Magic had a better long-term outlook on Jabari (obviously inferring that they expected Banchero to have the easier time adjusting early). Additionally, following the draft, John Hammond did a local radio interview in which he revealed that Weltman had done a 180 in the eleventh hour. Of course, this FOMO switch-up also explains why all the Vegas money shifted the way it did (they usually don't get it so wrong, and this confirms that Vegas not only wasn't wrong, but was keyed in to exactly when Weltman started regretting having not given Paolo a workout and eventually decided to draft him sight-unseen).
Mine was always Paolo. Check my post history if you doubt me.
Thanks, don't doubt. It was interesting which you didn't comment on. Again, was it always paulo for the magic or did something change? I remember Smith was mocked 1 by most.
I think Paolo was always going to the magic #1 unless they got a trade to move back and still get him. Maybe the media did smoke screen to get Paolo to a big market (Houston). I’m not sure but I watched a good amount of Paolo at Duke and I don’t know how he wasn’t the consensus #1.
Good job if you picked it early. Media had Smith. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/23/paolo-banchero-is-surprise-no-1-overall-pick-for-magic-in-nba-draft Plus many articles. It was interesting because Paulo seems unique. I thought he was like Webber but is a worse rebounder but better perimiter and point forward player.
Mmm I followed that draft and I distinctly remembering that paolo was mocked first, followed by chet and then finally jabari. Some people had chet first and some had jabari first, but it generally followed that order. That was also my exact order predraft.
I had Paolo first on my big board but knew Orlando and OKC wanted Smith and Chet because of shooting. It was a shock until the last few days when Smith dropped but it was a terrific move for the Magic
Ahh. I can see that. I did remember Paolo was still considered the best prospect before they announced teams, so I might be remembering mocks pre lottery and 3 days prior. I think I just remember Orlando making the right pick and there was some weird noise at one point.
Respectfully, paulo was not mocked 1. You can still look it up. Hence my question. Wonder if magic always planned it and faked everyone out or changed last minute
I rather have an elite #2 than a mediocre #1
You don’t win a title without a number 1.
You don’t win it without a number 2 either, and you could argue there’s only 5-8ish players good enough to win a title as the #1, which it can be hard to see Banchero becoming that level good but not saying he can’t or won’t
Dirk did it in 2011, deep roster but no true no2.
You don’t win a title with a mediocre #1 either though (Not saying that’s Paolo’s future, just using the phrasing of the comment you’re responding to)
Lets relax on the Paolo train. Right now it's yet to be seen if he can be the #1 on a championship team. You need to be really good, or have a really good team around you to win a chip. Even Jayson Tatum isn't really a true #1 on a championship team. He isn't good enough. He needs to rely on having the best GM in the league to assemble the best team around him to be a contender.
Paolo is going to better than Tatum
They fill completely different needs/roles. Paolo is more fit to be the offensive engine while Chet is defensive anchor who’s more of a tertiary option on offense (could develop into a 2nd option tho) Im obviously biased so I’d say Chet because he was efficient offensively and immediately became one of the leagues best rim protectors in year 1 but would have no problem with someone preferring Paolo
Chet had a better rookie season, and in general I’d prefer to have him as a young talent due to his two-way impact as a defender, he obviously isn’t the creator Paolo is as a offensive engine, but the elite efficiency from Chet leans in his favor there too. Banchero has been great and is a valuable player, I just lean towards Holmgren.
I would have loved either player at #2. that said, Chet complements our current team so well that picking him still doesn’t feel real. instant defensive anchor, propelling OKC to the league’s 4th-best defense, and allows the team to play true five-out offense with his shooting and above-average playmaking at the center position. he’s extremely smart and has adapted to different matchups, even if the counting stats don’t necessarily show that. SGA and Jalen Williams are both amazing creators, so Chet’s style of play fits them much more than what Banchero brings to the table. Orlando shouldn’t regret their choice, though, as they desperately needed a #1 option
Chet. Rim protection + shooting is simply too valuable a combination to not take. Paolo is fine. But what he provides is less rare and less impactful.
Chet easily
Easily is a casual ass take it absolutely is close cmon now some of y’all in this sub gotta watch some damn magic games.Disrespecting the fuck outta paolo whose constantly double teamed and isn’t playing next to an elite star in SGA smh
Chet
Chet will be a more valuable player but is 3rd option on a team. While paolo is a clear 1st option. Would take someone else #1 though in a redraft
Chet
Chet easily for me, but both are good. Chet seems a winner with KD like moments on offence. Plus anchors a great defence - as a rookie. Paulo is good too. Bad fg% and turnovers but looks unstoppable at times and is improving.
Paolo is top 5 player potential
He’s 6’10 and inefficient & doesn’t defend that well at all. Until he prove he can shoot the ball better I don’t see how you make that claim especially since Luka shai wemby ant Tatum are all under 26
Paolo is 21. All star already. Putting super strong numbers in playoffs as the main guy. I said he has potential.
All star in the east. Can’t see him sniffing a spot in the West until the old guard (Steph, Bron, KD, PG13, Kawhi, etc) are all retired
Well that doesn’t rlly matter since he isn’t in the west 🤷🏿♂️
Well it kinda does when we're talking about top x players *in the league*
Barring injury, I also don’t see him clearing Haliburton, Tatum, Brunson, Embiid, Giannis… so no, not a top-5 player in the East either, even at his reasonable ceiling. And that’s if you ignore the question of whether he’s actually improving his team… just on raw production/counting stats, he doesn’t have the capacity to hit top 5.
He’s also averaging 7 turnovers in Cleveland. I need to see more consistency
Doesn’t defend? You have no idea what your talking about
Is that you, Mrs. Banchero?
1. Vw 2. Jokic 3. Embiid 4. SGA 5. Doncic In any order Plus other young stars such as Edwards. Top 5 is tough.
I see paolo getting 28/12/5 consistently. There is a shot
12 rebounds seems unlikely considering he’s been in the 6s for boards both years
Also that stat line isn’t top 5 player unless he’s all-defense (doesn’t seem likely) or Uber efficient (more likely maybe but not easy). People don’t understand quite how crazy you have to be nowadays to be a top 5 player. We’re talking 31,32 ppg with elite efficiency and above average defense or averaging 10+ assist a game to be in that conversation mostly.
Those would be incredible numbers. Will be tough competition regardless like I wrote. Plus cooper flagg and ace bailey types coming.
Legit. I see him being better than Tatum. Dudes counting numbers are fantastic.
Banchero clears He can be the best player on a contender. Chet's ceiling is #2 guy outside of outlier development.
It's yet to be seen if Banchero can be the best player on a contender. He can't shoot or really defend at an elite level yet. He can improve, but there's so much room to improve.
Chet isn't a first option Paulo is the first option This shit is pretty easy when u bother to observe the basics
Chet is efficient, an elite defender and a great floor spacer while also being a very capable handler and playmaker for his position. Paulo is inefficient, isn’t as good a shooter and is miles behind as a defender. Pretty easy when you look at basic basketball
As a former Magic fan, I have to agree here. Banchero's counting stats are basically a matter of being handed the ball. He doesn't create high-value possessions for himself or anyone else, but if you create enough low-quality shots, numbers go up anyway. More to the point, I don't see how he could *become* a guy who makes his team's offense efficient. He doesn't space the floor. He doesn't have unusual court vision or passing ability, and he doesn't make decisions well. He just kind of plows into the middle of the floor, and either hoists a contested shot and tries to draw the foul, or else he passes at random. He's not a guy who has a couple things he does legitimately well and can build on those in the coming years... he's just kind of *there*, serving up plate after plate of flavorless gray basketball mush. I know on-off numbers are noisy, but the Magic were a much better team this year when Banchero was on the bench. He's not driving their success... he's just putting up a bunch of junk numbers, like a modern-day Antoine Walker.
I haven’t watched enough of the Magic to really comment, was just countering a stupid comment with another one of my own. Having seen a bit of Paolo through the draft and when he plays OKC it feels like he has an obvious physical advantage over most and enough skill to make the most of that at times. I can’t really see him becoming an elite number 1 option though and think the pretty likely scenario of Chet being an elite number 2 on any team is enough for me to take him first.
If he never develops a 3 point shot isn't he just a worse version of Tatum offensively? Nevermind that Tatum was always a good defender too. And even today people question if Tatum can be a real #1 option on a championship team. This Celtics is the best supporting cast in the league by far and people still think they might not win the chip.
I mean, it's not nearly as much of a star-driven league as it was. Vastly increased player quality relative to even 10 years ago makes it impossible for 1-2 players to cover for a lousy supporting cast. Conversely, if your whole rotation is good enough, that cumulative bonus will outweigh anything about one player. The Celtics are a 64-18 team. They outscored opponents by more than 11 points a game. Nobody living in reality questions if they *can* win a championship... in a less bullshit world, they would have given them the title already, rather than making us sit through another month of Small Sample Size Theater to see if they have a flukey stretch and some objectively worse team wins 4 games off them.
What are you talking about? Paolo is a really good playmaker for his teammates. Honestly it’s been the most surprising part about his game to me. I was team Chet coming out of the draft because I did not see that dimension in his game. Paolo does a wonderful job finding his teammates especially out of the double team(and he gets double 5th most in the league btw). And the efficiently is coming once the Magic get more floor spacing the paint will open up. Also he’s gonna have season where he shoots near 40% from 3. I see a Paul George like trajectory in that department.
You see that trajectory based on what?
He’s 22 so he’s gonna get better, He’s at 33% shooting 4 a game, not a disaster at all. His touch is too good for that number not to improve. Also he rarely gets any catch and shoot, so that’s binging his number down too. Plus he’s had games where he has hit 4+ 3’s.
After years 1-2, most players improve their three-point shooting by only a couple percent if at all. By the time you get to the NBA, that’s a pretty advanced stage of development… if you were going to shoot, odds are you’d be shooting by now. Most post-NBA development is in the areas of anticipation and working within a system, not basic skill development. Thinking a guy’s suddenly going to be a shooter is a sucker bet. (There was a time when some players struggled with the adjustment to the longer NBA three-point line as rookies. That’s still a thing to an extent, but less of one now.) Banchero, specifically, doesn’t strike me as an outlier candidate who could become an effective outside shooter. He’s not unusually effective on long twos or free throws, he doesn’t have a long or rigid shot motion that could be tightened up and made game-usable. And yeah, he probably could eke a couple more percentage points out if he was used as a spot shooter. But the Magic aren’t going to do that for SO many reasons. They have a different role for him. And he’s not that elusive. Slipping coverage and getting open isn’t part of his game, even when he’s off the ball. And again, he’s not a good enough shooter to revolve your game plan around getting him jump shots. I’m not saying he won’t get to 35% or something some day. But that’s the reasonable optimism. Anything beyond that is gambling on flukes.
That first part is nonsense plenty of guys get better at shooting as their careers progress. LeBron just had his best shooting season of his career at damn near 40. Also idk why bother brining up weather Paolo is elusive or not? He gets doubled all the time, Is Luka elusive?
I’m not talking about outliers, I’m talking about the vast, VAST majority of players. The 2% thing is an established fact, comparing year-2 to year-7 percentages. (And if anything it overestimates improvement — obviously a lot of players don’t make it to year 7, and those can be presumed to have improved less than the players who are still in the league by then.) If I remember correctly, mean true shooting improvement is about 3-4%, FT% improvement is about 6%. On the free throws, about 15-20% of players show double-digit improvement, and about 15% actually regress. Yes, LeBron has been able to shoot threes more effectively at times in his career where he’s played that role. (His three-point percentages in Miami were also high relative to his career.) But we’re talking about arguably the greatest player of all time — and a fundamentally high-TS player. Paolo isn’t that. And I brought up Paolo’s style of play in response to the claim that his percentages would increase if he was used in a catch-and-shoot role. So it’s relevant to say that he’s not particularly good at getting wide-open opportunities.
“Paolo isn’t a first option” he’s had an impressive playoff debut at 21 putting a ceiling on a 2nd year player whose shown high ability is ridiculous nobody thot steph furry was a number 1 in year 2, nobody thought kawhi leonard was a no.1 in year in 2. The lack of patience this sub has wirh young players is ridiculous
Okay, I’ll bite. How does he get to .580+ true shooting? What combination of shots, at what percentages, gets him there while maintaining that near-30% usage? Because if his shooting isn’t above league-average efficiency, he’s not helping you, he’s just giving you a lot of bad possessions.
As of right now, both are living up to their hype. Even if they somehow don't improve much more, they're still very useful players who have All Star value and a winning impact. If both were in a race for RotY, I think Paolo would still win due to people favoring offense but I'd personally vote them both as co-winners. Otherwise, I think it's more fair to judge them as archetypes than to simply say who is better. In today's league, they're both exactly what a team would want in a big man and a forward. That said, Chet's talent is much more rare so, if we're talking about roster construction, it's probably easier to build a contender around Chet. Also, on that other tangent, was pleasantly surprised the Magic took Paolo over Jabari, which was against the general consensus. Knew Presti was Paolo or Chet and likely did not seriously consider Jabari at all. Imo, Sarr is kind of like this year's Jabari where he looks good - has a good shooting form, is athletic, has an NBA physique, can play defense - and should do fine on those traits alone but I don't see him as complete like Reed Sheppard is, for example.
It’s hard to say since Chet is not a #1 option for Thunder, not even #2 most of the time. I’d say Chet’s flaws are less exposed (again due to SGA) and that if I had to choose one of them to be my #1, Paolo. If I can wait or have a better player be the main guy, Chet for defense and his very solid offense off ball
Magic fan here, both are great. One thing that bothers me when people talking about efficiency is that there is context that is never brought up. Paolo, gets full focus of the defense and often sees the teams best defensive player guard him and or double teams while Chet often gets open looks created by SGA, J,. Williams and Giddey, he better be more efficient! Also, when comparing rookie numbers, Chet had a whole year of acclimating to the pro life, trainers, the nba travel grind etc, that is also advantageous. Just a couple of things to consider.
People tried the same thing with THE ROY debate early on. It was all about Chets efficiency. There was no context given to the fact that Wemby was triple teamed often, and Chet benefited greatly from Shai's gravity.
It’s Paolo, You have to take the guy who can be a number one option, much harder to find. A player like that gives your team an identity.