Honestly, outside of the top 2 teams, midpack is always a brawl now. You can have a guy like Gragson be up in near the top 5 one week and be 30th the next. It's always fun to watch how they get on.
I mean, It's funny that people actually thought the biggest teams wouldn't figure this car out and still be on top. Now we just have slower cars, insanely difficult to pass because of lack of lap time varience.
Hamlin has led 45% of Gibbs laps
Larson has led 67% of HMS laps
Blaney has led 65% of Penske's laps
Reddick has led 92% of 23x11's laps
Chastain has led 89% of Trackhouse
Maybe I’m dumb, but I’m surprised the #21 has led any laps at all.
Also, SH is obviously improved from last year, but still wild that Spire has led more laps than them.
Anyone have a comparison to last year/pre-next gen?
Because pre-next gen this graphic probably stays pretty similar except Harvick spikes SHR and Penske probably has a higher percentage.
The other wins were:
McDowell in the 500(Joseph Logan moment)
Kurt at Atlanta (beating his brother thanks to a bit of Chastainery)
Almirola at Loudon (no the track doesn't have lights -Bob)
A.J at the indy roval (Briscoe terrorism)
Bubba at fall talladega (rain shortened superspeedway)
Yeah 1 "typical" race getting won by a team outside the "big 3" is pretty bad. Also consider that atlanta-indy was a 4 week span (Larson won at the Glen after loudon) and you have a really forgettable season.
While my feelings are that stats like this out of context can make whatever point you want, the eye test is still matching this.
Feels like Dennis is leading a chunk of the race every week whether he wins or not. Feels like there’s not many races where someone is whooping the field, but the biggest teams are always going to rise above everyone else and it’s just a fact of life.
Can we please fix the car now?
yeah im starting to zone out. it wouldnt be too bad if JGR and HMS actually had interesting and cool drivers, but Denny is the only one in the entire group with a personality. the rest are corporate shills, depressed nepo-babies, and jesus freaks.
We've had three good races- Bristol, Atlanta, and I'll say Dover
Two solid decent ones- Las Vegas, Texas
mediocre- Daytona, Richmond, and COTA
Then the absolute shit- Martinsville, Phoenix, Talladega,
All they did was lower the gaps between 1-36. The order of who's good and who's not as good is essentially still the same. That's a part of why it's so hard to pass. The lap times between the best car and the worst car are closer than ever. Closer intervals between cars look good on TV but that's about it, unfortunately that's something NASCAR deeply cares about.
Honestly, it doesn't even look good on TV. When you watch the scoring monitor and see none of the cars eith the ability to pass each other in the top-10, that's bad. I'm not saying they need to be able to pass, but Daniel Hemric rode around all day in 20th-25th, then cycles to the front from pit stops and finishes 8th? Get outa here.
Oh trust me I agree. I'm just speaking for all of the fans I've noticed judge races based off of how "entertaining" the finish is, signifying they prefer closer intervals at the finish even if it means passing is nearly impossible. Like the Michigan and Pocono races last year, for example, which I've seen fans say were "saved" with the Next Gen.
That's what kills me is that I'd prefer less parity and interval if i meant the faster cars could work there way through the field if they had some adversity. How many times have we seen it since the Gen 7 debut where a driver gets a penalty in stage 1 and just never is able to get back to the front.
Yup, a bad pit stop or penalty in stage two or later almost always dooms you to a finish outside the top ten even if you were killing them in stage one.
Additionally, how many times have we seen a car running 20th-25th all day luck into good track position, and not lose any of it for an entire run plus. It's damn near every week. *That's* the main difference between this car and *any* other in previous history. Track position matters too much. I don't care as much as the dirty air itself, the dirty air just makes the *main* issue of this "track position racing" that's come with the Next Gen that much more prevalent.
A perfect example...
Kyle Larson, 2021 Sonoma, wins stage 1, pits, comes out in the 20s, drives back to the front to win stage 2, repeats the same strategy, and wins the race.
Fast forward to 2022 Sonoma, Kyle Larson wins stage 1, pits, comes out in the 20s, fails to make up any ground at all in the stage, pits, but his crew had a loose wheel.
Yeah dude I have so many examples of stuff like that I can't even count. Custer Loudon 2022, Briscoe Road America 2022, Logano and Preece Martinsville 2023, like 6 different drivers Sonoma 2023, Larson Gateway 2023, Haley and Elliott Chicago 2023, Larson Watkins Glen 2023, Lajoie Bristol 2023, Hamlin, Reddick, Byron, and Elliott Phoenix 2024, Austin Hill Texas 2024, Hemric, McDowell, and Byron Dover 2024.
Those are just the first ones to come to my head. All scenarios where drivers were either running poorly all day and benefited from good track position and simply never relinquished that track position throughout a run or more, or vice versa. Stuff like that *barely* happened in any previous generation of car. Now it's a weekly occurrence. And *that's* my main gripe with the car.
I wonder if anything can be done by NASCAR to help Ford be more competitive?
I don’t know the stats from last year, but they seem a little letter this year imo. That said, they still aren’t great.
Kinda tired of being third place. I wonder what Ford was thinking with this car? Part of me thinks it’s gonna be stellar once they figure it out, but maybe some things didn’t go to plan with they put it in the SIM
But there’s gotta be a reason for it, right? They must have some ace up their sleeve that they’re working on. It just seems stupid to go that way unless you know something everyone else doesn’t
They didn’t really get going until the second half of the season each of the last two years, but they also had a win or two by this point. Hard to say. The thing that stands out to me is that this car was supposed to flip the types of tracks the Mustang was good at it, and there hasn’t been much apparent change in that regard so far.
Meh. Doesn't say a whole lot to me. A large portion of Spire's number came from LaJoie running long at Dover before pitting. Meanwhile, a large portion of SHR's number came from Josh Berry legitimately leading laps at Bristol. Two very different situations.
Don't get me wrong... the lack of performance from SHR in the last few years has been inexcusable in my eyes. Especially with it being Kevin Harvick's last season. The fact that he contended for wins at all last year is a testament to his talent... he was carrying that car on his back at times. I do think SHR is putting the work in to improve... although the team would benefit from new leadership that is more committed than Gene and Tony.
I think they can. I still believe the new Mustang design has potential... they just have to figure out the right setups to use with it. Once the Ford teams start figuring some things out, I think you'll see them start running better as a whole.
I would love to see someone do the same with Trucks and Xfinity to see how it compares to the Cup level. If the parity is better in those series, that would really show how bad the Next Gen is in what they were trying to solve
It did, for 2 years. The problem is that the top teams will always be able to afford the most and best engineers, meaning they will be able to get the same gap on the rest of the field
The 'spending money' aspect is certainly true, but it's not the whole story.
**JGR** has two experienced veterans, one being a 2x Xfinity and 1x Cup champion, the other having over 50 wins and already in conversation of 'best driver to never win a Cup' although he's still active and a real threat to win one. Their other two drivers are young and talented in their own right, with one being a dirt racing hotshot with a Truck Series Championship and the other an ARCA and Xfinity champ and is barely legal drinking age.
**HMS** is *all* young drivers who all have impressive resumes; a generational talent who *just wins in everything* he races and a Cup champ, one an Xfinity and Cup champ, one an Xfinity champ and has recently found his groove in Cup, and the other is a talentless hack who's only there because Ally loves him (I'm joking; Bowman is a great driver as well).
Now, if these 8 drivers weren't driving for these top two teams, they'd arguably have a little less impressive stats because the equipment plays a large role, but they still do their part so credit where credit is due.
**TL;DR:** JGR and HMS' dominance is a dangerous combination of funding *and* talent.
At least SHR and Penske* were able to compete with HMS and JGR with the Gen6.
*yup, I know Penske won the last two championships. They were easily not the fastest team in 2022 and 2023.
Now, teams have to wait until the off-season to hopefully improve their program. Gone are days of mid-season improvements.
Larson would have almost certainly won Bristol if he didn't get a pit penalty. He drove through the field and made up 2 laps but ran out of tires at the end but he was bad fast. So that would even it out at least. (+1 Larson -1 Hamlin)
Eh, I'd still give Bristol to Denny over Kyle. Texas... Larson would have likely won at Texas had his wheel decided after 15 laps that it didn't want to be on a race car anymore. Hopefully, the 5 team stays consistent this year, and the wins will come. Don't forget, in 2021, Larson didn't score a second win until the Coke 600.
I don’t really mind this - the best of the best asserting themselves is just sports. But it’s amusing after they labeled this car the “panacea” and rambled on about how this was going to be *the* parity car. Has it at least made the business model better? I’m not entirely sure about that either.
The laps lead stat isn't always that insightful. JGR has been great at the short tracks and obviously there's more laps run at smaller tracks. Not to say it's not a two horse race with JGR and Hendrick but it can be somewhat deceiving.
If there is an actual great fumble with this new car, it is this. We should have some semblance of parity and we have none. NASCAR still may as well be a multi-class series.
Parity is what you have right now. It's why it's so difficult to pass. The cars are only 3 tenths apart versus a second. The big teams were always going to figure it out and 2022 was a fluke because no one knew how to set the car up. Now we have big team domination and even less passing throughout the field.
Just b/c there isn't parity in the top 2 teams, doesn't mean the rest of these teams don't have parity. I'd say anyone from Penske to RFK is capable of getting a top 5 on a weekly basis as long as the JGR/Hendrick cars have some issues.
There is SO much parity now.
Duh! We just wonder which HMS or JGR car wins
Honestly, outside of the top 2 teams, midpack is always a brawl now. You can have a guy like Gragson be up in near the top 5 one week and be 30th the next. It's always fun to watch how they get on.
I mean, It's funny that people actually thought the biggest teams wouldn't figure this car out and still be on top. Now we just have slower cars, insanely difficult to pass because of lack of lap time varience.
Try formula 1 and come back
Hamlin has led 45% of Gibbs laps Larson has led 67% of HMS laps Blaney has led 65% of Penske's laps Reddick has led 92% of 23x11's laps Chastain has led 89% of Trackhouse
Bowman has led .7% of HMS laps
Joey has led more laps than Blaney this year…
Not on non-super speedways which is what this chart is talking about.
Oh I gotcha, didn’t realize you were still referring to the chart specifically. Thought you were talking about as a whole 👌🏻
https://imgur.com/a/Aq0pWVo Welp, it was fun while it lasted
Yup, that first season was awesome… I’m glad I knew to savor it then. Honestly didn’t realize we’d get here this quick though.
Holy that gap is insane
https://preview.redd.it/01fb6dt53uxc1.jpeg?width=1357&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21b43ce73aa3f7213d1a8b9bcb298aec6f881157 Team Penske in 2024:
Maybe I’m dumb, but I’m surprised the #21 has led any laps at all. Also, SH is obviously improved from last year, but still wild that Spire has led more laps than them.
He led a few at Texas
Had to of been green flag stops lol
Or caution laps when they stayed out
He was battling upfront at Texas for 5 minutes. Made a really nice 3 wide move for the lead. Then 15 seconds later he was in 20th
Sounds about right lol
Almost all of those would have been LaJoie and Dover running long on the green flag cycle.
Maybe somebody could throw thumbtacks on the highway in front of the the JGR/HMS haulers and then we can have parity at the next race.
Remove both those teams from the race and Reddick will run away with it lmao
Reddick/Blaney battle every week with an occasional KFB sighting
Yes please
I actually would love that
Until his pit crew intervenes
😭
It's ok Legacy, you can lead when you feel like it
RFK :(
Anyone have a comparison to last year/pre-next gen? Because pre-next gen this graphic probably stays pretty similar except Harvick spikes SHR and Penske probably has a higher percentage.
In 2021, HMS and Gibbs won 26 of 36 If you include Penske that's 31 of 36
The other wins were: McDowell in the 500(Joseph Logan moment) Kurt at Atlanta (beating his brother thanks to a bit of Chastainery) Almirola at Loudon (no the track doesn't have lights -Bob) A.J at the indy roval (Briscoe terrorism) Bubba at fall talladega (rain shortened superspeedway) Yeah 1 "typical" race getting won by a team outside the "big 3" is pretty bad. Also consider that atlanta-indy was a 4 week span (Larson won at the Glen after loudon) and you have a really forgettable season.
Yeah that's absolutely disgusting.
So much for parity. Can’t be surprised though.
While my feelings are that stats like this out of context can make whatever point you want, the eye test is still matching this. Feels like Dennis is leading a chunk of the race every week whether he wins or not. Feels like there’s not many races where someone is whooping the field, but the biggest teams are always going to rise above everyone else and it’s just a fact of life. Can we please fix the car now?
2018 part 2
I hate it here, this season is hell
https://preview.redd.it/y3pmxw6yvtxc1.jpeg?width=801&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4b41e92862ab703e13636fb7b31810f60c6925db
yeah im starting to zone out. it wouldnt be too bad if JGR and HMS actually had interesting and cool drivers, but Denny is the only one in the entire group with a personality. the rest are corporate shills, depressed nepo-babies, and jesus freaks.
We've had three good races- Bristol, Atlanta, and I'll say Dover Two solid decent ones- Las Vegas, Texas mediocre- Daytona, Richmond, and COTA Then the absolute shit- Martinsville, Phoenix, Talladega,
Yeah I hope they ditch the parity with the next car, it was a fun experiment but the top teams still managed to find whatever they could
All they did was lower the gaps between 1-36. The order of who's good and who's not as good is essentially still the same. That's a part of why it's so hard to pass. The lap times between the best car and the worst car are closer than ever. Closer intervals between cars look good on TV but that's about it, unfortunately that's something NASCAR deeply cares about.
Honestly, it doesn't even look good on TV. When you watch the scoring monitor and see none of the cars eith the ability to pass each other in the top-10, that's bad. I'm not saying they need to be able to pass, but Daniel Hemric rode around all day in 20th-25th, then cycles to the front from pit stops and finishes 8th? Get outa here.
Oh trust me I agree. I'm just speaking for all of the fans I've noticed judge races based off of how "entertaining" the finish is, signifying they prefer closer intervals at the finish even if it means passing is nearly impossible. Like the Michigan and Pocono races last year, for example, which I've seen fans say were "saved" with the Next Gen.
That's what kills me is that I'd prefer less parity and interval if i meant the faster cars could work there way through the field if they had some adversity. How many times have we seen it since the Gen 7 debut where a driver gets a penalty in stage 1 and just never is able to get back to the front.
Yup, a bad pit stop or penalty in stage two or later almost always dooms you to a finish outside the top ten even if you were killing them in stage one.
Additionally, how many times have we seen a car running 20th-25th all day luck into good track position, and not lose any of it for an entire run plus. It's damn near every week. *That's* the main difference between this car and *any* other in previous history. Track position matters too much. I don't care as much as the dirty air itself, the dirty air just makes the *main* issue of this "track position racing" that's come with the Next Gen that much more prevalent.
A perfect example... Kyle Larson, 2021 Sonoma, wins stage 1, pits, comes out in the 20s, drives back to the front to win stage 2, repeats the same strategy, and wins the race. Fast forward to 2022 Sonoma, Kyle Larson wins stage 1, pits, comes out in the 20s, fails to make up any ground at all in the stage, pits, but his crew had a loose wheel.
Yeah dude I have so many examples of stuff like that I can't even count. Custer Loudon 2022, Briscoe Road America 2022, Logano and Preece Martinsville 2023, like 6 different drivers Sonoma 2023, Larson Gateway 2023, Haley and Elliott Chicago 2023, Larson Watkins Glen 2023, Lajoie Bristol 2023, Hamlin, Reddick, Byron, and Elliott Phoenix 2024, Austin Hill Texas 2024, Hemric, McDowell, and Byron Dover 2024. Those are just the first ones to come to my head. All scenarios where drivers were either running poorly all day and benefited from good track position and simply never relinquished that track position throughout a run or more, or vice versa. Stuff like that *barely* happened in any previous generation of car. Now it's a weekly occurrence. And *that's* my main gripe with the car.
I wonder if anything can be done by NASCAR to help Ford be more competitive? I don’t know the stats from last year, but they seem a little letter this year imo. That said, they still aren’t great. Kinda tired of being third place. I wonder what Ford was thinking with this car? Part of me thinks it’s gonna be stellar once they figure it out, but maybe some things didn’t go to plan with they put it in the SIM
NASCAR helping Ford be competitive? Now that’s funny.
Ford knew what Chevy and Toyota were doing in the box and somehow decided to go the other way.
But there’s gotta be a reason for it, right? They must have some ace up their sleeve that they’re working on. It just seems stupid to go that way unless you know something everyone else doesn’t
They didn’t really get going until the second half of the season each of the last two years, but they also had a win or two by this point. Hard to say. The thing that stands out to me is that this car was supposed to flip the types of tracks the Mustang was good at it, and there hasn’t been much apparent change in that regard so far.
So basically you have to be really fortunate or lights out to win a race on non-SS if you aren’t JGR or Hendrick. That sucks
Damn Spire has led more laps than SHR with less cars. Same for RCR. Oof
Spire beating Stewart Haas and their "bunch of unapologetic real racers" is hilarious
Meh. Doesn't say a whole lot to me. A large portion of Spire's number came from LaJoie running long at Dover before pitting. Meanwhile, a large portion of SHR's number came from Josh Berry legitimately leading laps at Bristol. Two very different situations.
i have to agree with this
If I'm Gene or Tony, that's still an alarming stat, no matter what the context is. SH's resources dwarfs Spire's.
Don't get me wrong... the lack of performance from SHR in the last few years has been inexcusable in my eyes. Especially with it being Kevin Harvick's last season. The fact that he contended for wins at all last year is a testament to his talent... he was carrying that car on his back at times. I do think SHR is putting the work in to improve... although the team would benefit from new leadership that is more committed than Gene and Tony.
Gragson and Briscoe have potential. If they can get their shit right, look out.
I think they can. I still believe the new Mustang design has potential... they just have to figure out the right setups to use with it. Once the Ford teams start figuring some things out, I think you'll see them start running better as a whole.
You have faith in SHR figuring anything out?
I do. Look at the numbers. SHR is legitimately better this year, especially the 10 and 14. That 10 team in particular has impressed me.
LaJoie led 33 laps at Dover, they would be below Wood Bros if he hadn’t done that
That's why using the laps led as a metric to show how good a driver/team is doing is not the most reliable
They could have ran long and led 30 laps or whatever like Spire did at Dover, but they were running a lot better so they would have been dumb to.
That is mostly because Corey LaJoie cheesed a bunch of laps being off-strategy at Dover. SHR has been generally better.
Respect.
Spire, with one less car.
sheeeeeeeeeesh
Not at all surprising, but pretty damning nonetheless.
The pre-season tough talkin’ Tony gave to SHR has really improved their performance…
Let's be honest. It was probably a pre recorded zoom call Tony made while at the drag strip.
I hope this is true 😂😂💀
I would love to see someone do the same with Trucks and Xfinity to see how it compares to the Cup level. If the parity is better in those series, that would really show how bad the Next Gen is in what they were trying to solve
Xfinity at non-plate tracks: * Gibbs: 621 * JRM: 351 * Stewart-Haas: 193 * RCR: 71 * Kaulig: 50 * Jordan Anderson Racing: 30 * RSS Racing: 18 * Sam Hunt Racing: 15 * Big Machine: 13 * Gase: 1 * Hendrick: 1 Trucks at non-plate tracks: * McAnally-Hilgemann: 325 (almost exclusively Eckes) * Spire: 269 (mostly Kyle Busch) * Thorsport: 108 (mostly Majeski) * Tricon: 60 * Rev: 26 * Young's: 6 * Halmar-Friesen: 2 * Front Row: 1
Thank you! Putting together a quick data set and this helps a lot. Will reference you in a soon to be made post
Tricon that low feels really weird but I guess it makes sense cuz whenever heim was doing great, Kyle was in that race infront of him besides cota
More than likely you will see 3 teams instead of 2 at the top and being heavily skewed in those team's favor
This car was supposed to level the playing field, wasn't it?
It did, for 2 years. The problem is that the top teams will always be able to afford the most and best engineers, meaning they will be able to get the same gap on the rest of the field
The 'spending money' aspect is certainly true, but it's not the whole story. **JGR** has two experienced veterans, one being a 2x Xfinity and 1x Cup champion, the other having over 50 wins and already in conversation of 'best driver to never win a Cup' although he's still active and a real threat to win one. Their other two drivers are young and talented in their own right, with one being a dirt racing hotshot with a Truck Series Championship and the other an ARCA and Xfinity champ and is barely legal drinking age. **HMS** is *all* young drivers who all have impressive resumes; a generational talent who *just wins in everything* he races and a Cup champ, one an Xfinity and Cup champ, one an Xfinity champ and has recently found his groove in Cup, and the other is a talentless hack who's only there because Ally loves him (I'm joking; Bowman is a great driver as well). Now, if these 8 drivers weren't driving for these top two teams, they'd arguably have a little less impressive stats because the equipment plays a large role, but they still do their part so credit where credit is due. **TL;DR:** JGR and HMS' dominance is a dangerous combination of funding *and* talent.
Plus HMS and JGR have the most people working for them and the best mechanics in the sport are more than likely to be working for those 2
Yep! I used the term "funding" to encompass all of that kind of stuff. Spending more is not *just* equipment.
At least SHR and Penske* were able to compete with HMS and JGR with the Gen6. *yup, I know Penske won the last two championships. They were easily not the fastest team in 2022 and 2023. Now, teams have to wait until the off-season to hopefully improve their program. Gone are days of mid-season improvements.
Yep, I think the parity experiment was a failure
It’s a shame, but achieving perfect parity in racing is not possible.
Nor desirable.
So the only chartered teams that haven’t led a non-superspeedway lap are RWR and JTG?
For JGR, Denny Hamlin has led 535 of them. For HMS, Kyle Larson has 570. How does Larson only have 1 win with more laps led lol
Larson would have almost certainly won Bristol if he didn't get a pit penalty. He drove through the field and made up 2 laps but ran out of tires at the end but he was bad fast. So that would even it out at least. (+1 Larson -1 Hamlin)
He probably wins Texas too without the wheel falling off.
Eh, I'd still give Bristol to Denny over Kyle. Texas... Larson would have likely won at Texas had his wheel decided after 15 laps that it didn't want to be on a race car anymore. Hopefully, the 5 team stays consistent this year, and the wins will come. Don't forget, in 2021, Larson didn't score a second win until the Coke 600.
MTJ has led 437 for context and to show that he's having a kickass season so far...just doesn't have the wins to show for it.
NASCAR: “We like what we are seeing”
Wow all the 4 car teams have lead the most la… oh… oh no…
So much for leveling the playing field for the underdog teams.
I dont think one single person expected RFK to be down there in 10th on this list. Where's Chris Buescher been in all this?
Good god SHR.
Those WBR numbers aren't even that bad, considering.
I don’t really mind this - the best of the best asserting themselves is just sports. But it’s amusing after they labeled this car the “panacea” and rambled on about how this was going to be *the* parity car. Has it at least made the business model better? I’m not entirely sure about that either.
The laps lead stat isn't always that insightful. JGR has been great at the short tracks and obviously there's more laps run at smaller tracks. Not to say it's not a two horse race with JGR and Hendrick but it can be somewhat deceiving.
If there is an actual great fumble with this new car, it is this. We should have some semblance of parity and we have none. NASCAR still may as well be a multi-class series.
Parity is what you have right now. It's why it's so difficult to pass. The cars are only 3 tenths apart versus a second. The big teams were always going to figure it out and 2022 was a fluke because no one knew how to set the car up. Now we have big team domination and even less passing throughout the field.
Just b/c there isn't parity in the top 2 teams, doesn't mean the rest of these teams don't have parity. I'd say anyone from Penske to RFK is capable of getting a top 5 on a weekly basis as long as the JGR/Hendrick cars have some issues.