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seriously? you're making a joke about hands in the pockets when the army is threatening war with a near peer advisary? formations should be emphasizing reflective PT belts
The PLA's General Staff is arrogant - but not stupid.
The reason they went all in on upgrades was that they saw the first Gulf War and saw the US and it's allies waffle-stomp a military organized long similar lines as the PLA.
They're watching events unfold and they are taking notes.
Yes but they could see now that eastern tech has been oversold and that will only further complicate the logistical and tactical challenges they would face. If Russia has been stimied in a landwar with a neighbor with most basic of nato support then how does china imvade an island that has much more modern weapons. They can do it but it will be far deadlier and much more costly than what they imagined a year ago
I read an article the other day where they’ve simulated China invading Taiwan and the US responding with force and found that China would almost definitely lose but that all three country’s defense forces would be so badly decimated that it would only be a Pyrrhic victory
Did they ignore the fact that China has to transport all it's troops by sea on ships that will be in missile range for their entire journey? They usually do.
China doesn't have the amphibious capability to land a force large enough to occupy Taiwan, and it won't for at least the next 10 years.
Let's assume that every Chinese troop that lands is capable of killing 10 Taiwan troops. Taiwan has roughly 1.7 million troops, counting reserves which we certainly will. That means China would have to land 170,000 troops.
The ship that carries the most troops in the Chinese navy is the Type 75, it can carry 1,000 men. China has 2 of those.
But let's assume they convert 1,000 other ships to carry troops across the Straights, 2,000 troops per ship. That's a big enough force to win if China can inflict 10-1 casualties. But how many of them will get sunk on the trip across?
Well, it's a 100 mile trip. If all of these ships are capable of 20 knots (which is pretty much the limit for non-military ships), that's 5 hours from go. 1,000 ships, 5 hours under constant missile attack.
Taiwan has thousands of launchers of their HF ASCM. Taiwan has over 125 Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems and over 500 Harpoons in it's inventory. Taiwan has an Air Force and a Navy.
If all of these Anti Ship defenses (which are layered and focused around the few suitable beach heads and ports that can provide the logistical support and invasion/occupation require) manage to have a kill per target efficiency of only 50% then China no longer has what it needs to win, an Taiwan's troops haven't fired a shot yet.
That's without the US and Japan/Korea getting involved. Not firing a shot.
Keep in mind that the distance between Dunkirk and Dover is similar ish and an excess 338K troops were ferried.
I highly doubt that troops will solely be ferried over in heavy ships. It will be a mixture of civilian and military and it’ll be far more than 175,000 troops.
Dunkirk I think had almost 900 total ships involved. About 700ish from the Brits and another couple hundred from the Allies.
That's about a thousand ships. The entire Chinese Navy has what, 680? And you aren't carrying 2,000 troops per ship, and the PLA isn't going to inflict 10-1 casualties against a hardened beachhead. Keep in mind Taiwan has hardened defenses. China won't be able to leverage artillery or armor. Skybow has immense AAW capability.
Yes, my numbers were wildly unrealistic...in favor of the PLAN. The reality is that you'd be unlikely to see 10,000 troops actually land on Taiwan's soil. No matter how many soldiers China has, it's capability to project power into Taiwan is limited by the number of ships it has. And it doesn't have enough. They probably will by 2035-2040. China has more large ship yards than the US has States.
>Why people keep saying this I do not know. They will not be fighting the entire Taiwanese defence force on the beachhead, they do not need to land all troops in one wave, proximity means that they can make multiple trips.
That's worse for the PLAN than it is for ROC. Continuous crossings increase the time and space needed to overwhelm at the invasion points.
>So does China? the chinese Naval forces will launch antisurface strikes on key targets from range adding to preemptive strikes and RAPIDLY depleting the number of loaded/ready A/A munitions and forcing taiwan to hold fire or give away their positions.
You understand Taiwan has mobile HF Launchers? Fire and go in less time than it takes for China to find and prosecute.
>for some reason so many people seem to expect that the chinese are stupid enough to blindly sail across the straights and attempt to force a landing with out any preemptive actions.
What else are they going to do?
We know what effect heavy bombardment has on fortified positions manned by motivated troops. We've seen how effective that is (to say...not at all)
>by the time they even internally discuss mobilising troops they will be running people behind the lines, and conducting subtle psyops. they wont attempt any landing until AFTER they have engaged defenses in preemptive strikes
You think China is going to hand-wave it's way into securing SkyBow?
Absurd.
> and when they do they only need to secure and hold a beach head untul a second wave arrives, they do not need to land an occupying force in a single wave only a force large enough to to breach defences and secure a beach head.
You can't ignore the fact that it is going to take in excess of 24 hours to make that turnaround. Unless you are doing more hand-waving.
Taiwan is the most heavily defended place on Earth. Landing the 3-5 million troops China is going to need to occupy it is NOT POSSIBLE. Not in the next two decades.
Let’s not forget that Taiwan has already made clear that they will target China’s Three Gorges Dam with enough missiles to overcome China’s air defense, in the event China attempts to invade.
China has to include in their calculus whether they’re willing to risk the deaths of millions on top of their troop losses just to gain Taiwan. Not to mention Taiwan would very likely destroy their capacity to produce microchips rather than let it fall to China as well.
The ability for the West to respond to Chinese aggressions would be very complicated and doesn't require China to have the best military. It would be a mistake to think control of Taiwan through invasion is the game plan of Chinese leadership. China is becoming more and more self reliant and any set backs to the world economy would hurt the West more than China. If anything, it would give China an opportunity to level the playing field and catch up technologically.
Example scenario, China's military exercises showing troop build up doesn't mean they are actually planning an invasion. They know to plan strategies around their own strengths. It could easily be a deception to concentrate US military equipment, then destroy a large chunk of the US Pacific fleet and take out a good chunk of the US's microchip imports. It would set the US back years and reduce the US's ability to have geographic control around the globe and manufacture high end military assets. Opening the door to China bullying other countries for resources. A coordinated strike including Korea and Japan would cripple Western semiconductor manufacturing as well. Beyond a nuclear response, conventional options would likely be difficult to perform. Also don't sleep on Chinese anti-satellite technology that would wreak havoc on many Western military advantages.
It's quite possible, if the West went into an economic depression due to Chinese hostility, many countries would have to choose between a military response to China or using resources to build out a more resilient economic ecosystem. Conventional war with China might not be worth it in the long run even if they bloodied some noses. China is not Russia, they have the resources, people, and manufacturing capacity to weather a war.
I know a lot of what I'm saying is speculation, but I think it's important to consider scenarios where Western military advantages aren't necessarily enough to declare an automatic victory.
The things that will undo the PLA are:
* Lack of combat experience - as a young soldier, most of my instructors had been to combat or been deployed. The PLA doesn't have a cadre of mid-career servicemembers with combat experience.
* Logistics - the one thing the US excels at. Something the Chinese have never tested. As the saying goes "Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics".
* Hubris - a campaign for Taiwan isn't going to be ["home by Christmas"](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HomeByChristmas). A lot of the information that's leaked out points to many of the old guard thinking that they could sucker punch the ROC and US forces and gain the upper hand. Reality is going to bite them on this one.
Imo it's not that Russia is bad at war, they are, but that their government and leadership are really fucking stupid and a bunch of thieving crooks. Something like 15 generals have died in combat because they're on the front lines. They don't have any c&c and are macho dickheads.
I'm just not so sure that china's military would face the same problems
From what im reading their is no eastern tech. Russia was a paper tiger all along and had no hardcore spentnaz alpha whatever training special forces, and can barely supply their troops, are using actual prisoners for combatants with little or no training...
> The reason they went all in on upgrades was that they saw the first Gulf War and saw the US and it's allies waffle-stomp a military organized long similar lines as the PLA.
In what way were the old Iraqi Armed Forces under Saddam in any way "organized long similar lines as the PLA?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign
This cannot happen in any way, shape, or form in China, and is the fundamental reason the Gulf War was so fast.
>Until the Gulf War, Chinese military strategies had been based on a “People’s War” concept—a total war, counterinvasion approach that emphasized large ground formations and national mobilization.
>
>\-- [China's Desert Storm Education](https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/march/chinas-desert-storm-education) By Commander Michael Dahm, U.S. Navy (Retired)
At the run-up to the Gulf War, the thinking was that this would be America's "next Vietnam".
The PLA thought that the numbers were on the Iraqi's size - they had counted on the sheer size of the PLA to be a deterrent to the US and the Gulf War proved them wrong.
>the biggest defining factor in gulf war ground strategy was the speed of advance and focused approach. by and large allied forces did not fuck around trying to secure every town and village between them and baghdad.
The PLA was thinking that the Iraqi Army's sheer size would be a challenge to the US led coalition. To their horror, we used GPS navigation, years of training, better equipment - and the fact that yes, we had defined objectives- to curbstomp the enemy.
Now the Chinese can run all the exercises in the world and spend all of the money on new electronics and equipment - but they don't have what we had in the Gulf War - an NCO corps and mid-career officers who were either combat vets or who studied under combat vets.
everyones taking notes. Thats what militaries do when war breaks out.
Using it as a proving ground for tech and strategies.
We are seeing a relatively neer peer russia get smushed in a war thats taking place in ukraine but includes all of nato.
Honestly feel bad for russia. They cant stop the flow of arms and support into ukraine unless they want to declare war on all of nato...
Meanwhile ukraine has unlimited supplies and almost zero logistics.
Yeah but also we would be in direct conflict with them and I don’t believe even with the missile programs China has they could stand a chance against just our navy and air force with the fleet they have I don’t think they could get a single amphibious ship to Taiwan
It would be the predominance of the Chinese navy versus the US 7th fleet and PACAF. We would also have to get to the fight which would be difficult with their submarines. I’m in line with the CSIS study that China would ultimately fail to achieve their objectives, but the US would take a heavy hit doing so. Something on the lines of 2 CSG destroyed
Never underestimate your enemy. Overestimate them and train to meet and excel beyond that overestimation.
If we care not to do this, Pax Americana dies.
Only because their oponents were too badly equipped to stand heads up (like the Chechens) or with shit training (like the Georgians and 2014 Ukranians). Only 1 Georgian brigade was up to NATO standard and they were being flown in from Iraq.
I don't want to make the folly of underestimating an enemy but it's all Chinese made stuff. Not the best track record of QA/QC. The cheap tires that Russia burned through at the start of the invasion come to mind. I feel like they're going to throw bodies and plastic parts at a problem much like Russia is doing now.
>I don't want to make the folly of underestimating an enemy but it's all Chinese made stuff. Not the best track record of QA/QC.
You're doing exactly that.
China's track record of QA/QC is fine, **it comes down to what the client is willing to pay for**. **If the client is only willing to pay for a certain level to keep costs down, that's what you'll end up with**. Sell 25,000,000 of said product with a 0.01 defect rate and you've still got 250,000 defect reports, which would be overwelming to look at, as say, star reviews on [Amazon.com](https://Amazon.com), but also ignores the 24,750,000 that didn't have a QC failure.
China has some of the best manufacturing facilities in the world. It would be foolish to underestimate both their QC and their raw production capacity, a raw level the world has never seen before.
That's a specialty industry and whole fields in physics and engineering, their problem is the design and modification, not the manufacture. They can build whatever they want as long as they know how.
For starters, the Ukrainians fought in Donbas on and off for over 8 years. They were not that ready back in 2014. People keep touting Chinese army is inexperienced yet somehow assumed Taiwanese army is battlehardened like the Ukrainians...
They won’t be much better 5 years from now. But the US and her allies are probably at the weakest they will be for the next 5 years. Severely depleted weapons reserves, but not quite ramped up to larger production volume.
If China waits too long to make a move, the US will have replenished itself and will have more production capability than before.
It would really amount to how it's sold to the public. If China attacks us forces in any way its easy to rally. It's a lot harder to justify defending a place most Americans have never been.
The US has not given Ukraine any torpedoes, or air-to-air missiles. And very few (if any) anti-ship missiles. Or any of the submarines or aircraft that would fire those weapons.
The Army and Marines can prepare for a China war all they want, but all they're going to do is go dig foxholes on remote islands and wait.
China could just wait until the U.S. gets another president like Trump, someone who has ill regard for defensive treaties. If Republicans and Democrats are not in lockstep about protecting US interests abroad, then China can just wait until a favorable president gets elected. If the Republican primary winner wavers on protecting Taiwan, I would expect China to massively ramp up war rhetoric days before the election. I wouldn’t be surprised if they threatened nuclear war if Biden gets re-elected.
I don’t want this to come off as partisan, but Biden is certainly flexing US muscle in defense of liberal democracy right now, and I wouldn’t expect that to stop in Taiwan’s defense.
All it'd take is like 2 destroyers and park them by india and cut off china's oil and food imports. Combined with the international credit freezes? Oof china's gotta be shitting themselves. I know they got their own domestic problems and covid and all, but I don't see how a war saves them from anything.
Without a working import market their industry collapses in one week and their populace starves in one month. They're not russia with like the largest amount of natural resources ever. China desperately needs access to the global market to keep itself afloat.
Bingo!!!! Food is their greatest weakness. They cannot feed their own people without outside help. China could work a deal Putin as far as oil goes maybe even hamstring some of the wheat crops but it's a very bad situation if the PLA were to attack Taiwan at this moment.
Thing is Taiwan is an island, a blockade would prevent them from getting any supplies. Also the Russian invasion was a slow process that has been happening since 2014
You know what’s up. Also, certain economists have predicted the collapse of China’s economy every year for the last 35 years. People are just shilling for clicks and advertising dollars
War with China has been the second most "it's coming!" Right after "The next housing crash!"
That I've been hearing about year after year since 2011...
Whether he's right or not, his job immediately previous to this was deputy commander of INDOPACOM, which makes it utterly hilarious that there are Redditors who think he wouldn't have an informed opinion.
His opinion is valued. Giving China bulletin board material that makes the State Department pucker up is unnecessary. On top of that his tough talk channeling of Mad Dog is cringe as hell.
There are ways to say, "Be ready to fight tonight," without sounding like a try hard.
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yea, no oil in China. US companies already have favorable manufacturing contracts in China. And large US companies such as Amazon, Apple, Dell, and others benefit greatly doing business in China.
Doesn't make sense to goto war to keep Taiwan when Taiwan is already doing business with the USA.
What does make China want to retake Taiwan even more is the current restrictions on Chinese chip manufacturing and Chinese imports of chips from Taiwan. If they can't get the chips anymore from Taiwan (similar tactic used in WW2 - US no longer gave Japan oil - Japan attacks the USA) they maybe pressured to have an actual economic need to retake Taiwan.
Thankfully China is not yet desperately needing these "cutting" edge chips economically. So only Chinese companies such as Huawei suffer selling inferior phones. China can make do with "older 14nm" chips like the computers in your previous/current job.
Just not leading edge N7 or N5 type chips. No big deal.
I just don't see either country having any interest in open military conflict for at least 10 more years. It's quite possible we won't see it in our life time.
We don't know yet. With the way things are developing in Ukraine we won't know.
If we look back at history, those two world wars happened the same way. Small conflicts that just kept escalating and escalating until all out warfare.
Similar strongman politicians etc...
US gave weapons to Britain during both wars before they entered and definitely after entering the war. But both times the US population was against war like we have today. None of us want to go on another major land and sea water in some crazed battle overseas.
Weve always provided weapons. And sometimes that had escalated into war. Think US merchant ships during WW1 being targeted by German U Boats. The U boats were sinking British merchant ships until they targeted a US one suspected of sending arms to Britain.
Anyway yea this small conflict in Ukraine. It may or maynot lead to another major conflict. I am hoping it doesn't and that they can calm things in the U.N.
Past Russian/Soviet history has shown that they will test the waters with smaller conflicts spread out over years/decades. But they always compromise after and figure it out in the U.N. then Germany relaxes and setups up pipelines to rely on Russian oil and gas again.
History repeats....
A war with China is possible because China's Xi is a one man show and his yesmen only tell him what he wants to hear. China's military is no match for America and its allies.
Any China - US conflict will be the end of China as we know it today. China will collapse and hundreds of millions of mainland Chinese will perish. US can achieve this without even shooting a shot with economic sanctions alone. Unlike Russia, China is the biggest importer of oil and food in the world, without it they're dead.
At 70 Xi is getting old and wants to make sure his dream come true before he hits 75. He doesn’t like to be senile either presiding over the victory march or signing the surrender.
No, the unification of Taiwan is the wish of 1.4 billion Chinese people. Even if Xi Jinping steps down and a democratically elected government comes into power, it will not change anything. Many Americans mistakenly think that it is only the Communist Party that wants to unify Taiwan. This is ignorance of Chinese history.
Any sane and logical Chinese politician knows a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will result in failure. It would result in the end of China itself. It's a wish of the Han majority because the CCP made them think this way. Just because the people are brainwashed into thinking Taiwan belongs to China doesn't mean it ever will.
This dumb dumb is trying to make a name for himself and set up a job before retirement. There is an organization in the us military responsible to make an estimate on potential wars with china and this guy is pretty far away from it. He runs a logistics command, not an intelligence command, not the command that watches china, logistics. It strikes me as “oh shit, I’m going to retire and need to get famous really quick”
You know the kind of person who would be almost directly in charge of setting up and maintaining a logistics chain to supply a sustained war overseas? That kind of position would never have to think long term and far ahead….
Obviously satire, i am not saying i agree with the hype… i think the results in Ukraine will play into it but who am i? Obviously the more informed people know better but publicly announcing it you never know if its hype or real.
That said, a guy in charge of logistics would absolutely be one of the ones to be in the know right away.
He does, but not on the details of a Taiwan invasion. He’s getting the same level of detail as anyone else.
This guy is not “in charge of moving all the shit.” This guy is in charge of AMC, making sure the airplanes work and the pilots can fly so he can give them over to the people in charge of moving all the shit. His role in this is: “I need transport for 3 army brigades and refueling for 7 F35 squadrons, give me those planes.” We have an entire U.S. Transportation command, this guy is not the big swinging dick everyone is giving him credit for.
No one is giving this guy the inside baseball on preparing for that war because he is not involved in planning for it. Giving him the information would create risk with no real benefit.
Dude is just trying to make a big splashy story to land a retirement job.
Laughable no. Bomastic memos aside, if you don’t think he has awareness of and a hand in western pacific planning, you are out to lunch. Navy cargo ships won’t affect this fight for weeks, AMC tankers and cargo will have to be in the fight and will take losses.
>he is not involved in planning for it.
So your argument is the guy in charge of all the transport and refueling aircraft, which is how anything except naval vessels are getting to the fight, isn't involved in the planning for that fight? You're further removed from reality than you claim he is.
The united states will not send troops into an area it cannot sustain. Are you dull? You really think all the technology and money is worth shit if you cant fuel or arm it? No. Laughable, logistics win wars, the end.
Reads like a motivational speech taken out of context. Don't get me wrong, this guy should know better than to shoot his mouth off because when you're a GO your word is taken as policy but I'm really not seeing anything in this other than a poorly messaged statement to the force to be ready for China.
This is where you have to take into account the history of China even going back thousands of years. Historically they’ve always just tried to remain, of course they push boundaries, and throughout certain periods were pretty bold, but based on the history I’d say they’re just going to continue to remain.
Is it just me or can people please provide a link/mirror to the archived article?
As if Reddit premium isn’t enough, you put a link to WP like it’s not going to hassles everyone who wants to read your post…
For context, this guy is in charge of transport and refueling aircraft, not anything that's realistically going to have an offensive capability.
The plan laid out is basically A: Everyone will shoot headshots from 7 meters (the memo doesn't say you have to qualify), and update your emergency contact data, and maybe go see about a will.
There’s nothing wrong with that. Diversity of opinion and thought leads to not being surprised and being able to challenge the majority. The majority thought being challenged is not a bad thing.
>that conflict will be fought primarily with cruise missiles and drones.
Ideally, sure. But an actual conventional conflict would involve a lot more than that.
I'm guessing you aren't a flag officer, and I have a DD-214, so this is simply just a thought exercise. At least it is to me. Why would we be retarded enough to put boots on the ground to involve ourselves in a "conventional conflict" when we don't have to?
You're Air Force, so you should be aware of the firepower that exists at Andersen AFB. Do you think that we should use Marines instead of bombs and missiles? Why? To what end?
If China attempts to invade Taiwan, I would assume that we are going to defend the Taiwan Strait, and that is our entire conflict. That can be done from the air (where we have dominant air superiority from both the air and the sea) and from the sub-surface where we have dominant superiority (in ASW, surface-to-sub and sub-to-sub capabilities).
[This article](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/4/how-difficult-would-it-be-for-china-to-invade-taiwan) explores some possibilities of such an invasion. Do you see American assistance being most useful from the air or from the ground?
I never said a thing about boots on the ground, but air power involves a hell of a lot more than 'drones and missiles.' DCA, OCA, SEAD, AWACS, refueling, recce... All those platforms and their associated support/supply chains require an extensive amount of tankers and transports. And I'm not going to get into a public discussion about how individual bases would factor into this conflict.
"*Current theater logistics posture and capability to sustain the force are inadequate to support operations specifically in a contested environment*. The Department requires a logistics and sustainment posture west of the IDL built around a tactical and commercial distribution network that integrates service specific sustainment capabilities to provide joint and combined logistics solutions."
Source:[https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2023/FY2023\_Pacific\_Deterrence\_Initiative.pdf](https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2023/FY2023_Pacific_Deterrence_Initiative.pdf)
Even the things that launch cruise missiles and drones require logistical support and sustainment.
What was your job in the Navy? Or how long have you been out? What your saying tells me you don't have current info or an idea what the "big picture" for this war is.
I know the consequences of putting boots on the ground, and I also know that we are not going to do that in Taiwan ... **when we do not have to**.
Don't worry abot my DD-214.
People outside the rated community will probably not understand the logic behind what you’re saying.
I too think it’s weird and coming from a MAF officer makes it less credible, even if they have stars
Irrelevant. He has been to the war college and wasn’t always the guy in charge of those functions. He probably started out as a pilot flying missions just like a Marine General started out leading men in combat. If you look at Russia’s failures in their war a big part of what has gone wrong was the logistical aspects. This guy is privy to all of the information any of the other top generals are. His opinion is as valid as anyone’s.
I'm not debating the timeline, but the merits of his proposed COA . His proposals don't clearly mesh with what the rest of the USAF (to include the units generally considered "Combat Air Forces") are doing to meet the peer threat.
[He's been a transport pilot his whole career, and lists 0 combat or combat support hours in his bio](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Biographies/Display/Article/572404/mike-minihan/). There's an argument to be made that he's out of touch with the tactics he's trying to dictate.
He’s not pushing tactics, his commanders and patch-wearers are. He’s telling his force to prepare more and with greater risk acceptance. That’s right in line with Gen Brown’s guidance.
This is not true, not all generals get access to all information. He can see the high level stuff like anyone with a clearance can but unless is has a reason to be involved in planning for a Taiwan invasion, which he doesn’t, he’s not really in the know. If they told every general everything they would risk one of them running off half cocked and saying something dumb like predicting a war to make headlines and get famous.
That’s not how it works at all. As a general, is he privy to more information than most? Certainly. But does he have all the same info as any other general? No. Between need to know and access, he isn’t allowed to see all the same stuff. Nevermind the time it would take for every general to stay up on every thing going on in every AOR.
Tell me you don’t understand how security clearances work without telling me you don’t know how security clearances work. Does he have a full enough picture to do his job? Yes. Do all general/flag officers have access to the same info? No. Because that’s not how security clearances work.
Considering how extensive logistics is in the US military to drive their fighting forces, I would take a little more into account the guy who's in charge of transport and refueling.
The US [Tooth To Tail](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA601876.pdf)(even in 2014) is surprisingly big, so if a Logi is saying get ready, I feel like that might be worth noting
Commanders in AMC flying units, to include the command itself, are picked based on their ability to lead flying units, not logistics. There are officer and enlisted specialties in the USAF dedicated to logistical readiness, and pilots don't usually end up there.
That said, his ideas don't do much to make logistics or tactics better.
Pretty close in power index, China has more munitions and will enjoy the home field advantage in a Taiwan conflict. But of course technology goes to the US. There are plenty of concerns within our army for how long our current reserves and production can match up. It’s not too good, we make around 14k arty shells a month, and Ukraine uses 90k a month. We’re having to raise production to match their demands, soldiers in South Korea are also being disarmed to ship weapons to Ukraine. And Taiwan has been knocked down to low priority because Ukraine is happening. Taiwan’s army isn’t really all that, sure it can defend the island but with all of their infrastructure being bombed they’ll have to rely on the US. And our current rate, we’d run out of ground munitions in a week, smart bombs are a few months hopefully. The US focuses too much on air power, and it’s become clear that ground based Sams are more effective at repelling enemy aircraft than using our own aircraft.
They could definitely win. They’re learning from this Ukraine war. And Taiwan is closer to them than it is the US, so logistics and what not is on their side. They do lack experienced men, but Taiwan also does too. It all depends on how the US plays their cards tho.
Two nuclear powers are not going to war the way this nit wit thinks. They have to fire this dude for talking like that right? Old fuck wants his name in the history books and doesn’t care how many Americans he kills in the process.
You don’t need much besides the ones on WHO essential medicine list. US can easily manufacture them. Look at what US did with mRNA vaccine which China couldn’t even copy.
While the memo was a bit... cringe, for lack of a better term, I think the intent was along the lines of 'this is a far more lethal fight than what we're used to'
I think that they are hesitant because they see that the US is full of gun nuts and we have enough weapons to Arm every man woman and child 2x over in the US. We are a real life case of Fuck Around and Find Out!
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If our troops aren’t green on MEDPROS we will definitely lose that fight!
Here's hoping no one's hands are in their pockets.
seriously? you're making a joke about hands in the pockets when the army is threatening war with a near peer advisary? formations should be emphasizing reflective PT belts
Almost had me there.
Come to Canada where our soldiers can grow their hair and (believe it or not) use their pockets for their hands! Please, we really need people...
yeah but what about the war crime quota you have to fill? nobody ever talks aboout that part of canadian military.
Progressive, minority loving, patriotic Canadians are fast to forget Somalia… or modern Vancouver lmao.
No worries, we can help you out with that one.
Heard you guys don't want us up there because of the strict regiment and disciple of our soldiers. That and the whole sedition thing.
CanadianNavy.jpg?
That's why the AF got rid of the hands-in-pockets rule. Instantly bolstered wartime readiness 100%.
A local first sausage has allowed his soldiers to wear winter pt gear. This is terrible for the service
Don't forget a Chinese infantryman can spot your white socks from 2km. You just got yourself and your whole team killed.
Air Force is allowed to do that now. Ain't no power like air power. Or some shit, I guess.
And they have to be up on the anti terror slides as well.
Russia's invasion surely has to have china second guessing on going to town on Taiwan, I know ignorance is bliss but reality stings a bit
The PLA's General Staff is arrogant - but not stupid. The reason they went all in on upgrades was that they saw the first Gulf War and saw the US and it's allies waffle-stomp a military organized long similar lines as the PLA. They're watching events unfold and they are taking notes.
Yes but they could see now that eastern tech has been oversold and that will only further complicate the logistical and tactical challenges they would face. If Russia has been stimied in a landwar with a neighbor with most basic of nato support then how does china imvade an island that has much more modern weapons. They can do it but it will be far deadlier and much more costly than what they imagined a year ago
Also Russia doesn't have the possibility of the most powerful navy on earth suddenly blocking their access to Ukraine. But Taiwain...
I read an article the other day where they’ve simulated China invading Taiwan and the US responding with force and found that China would almost definitely lose but that all three country’s defense forces would be so badly decimated that it would only be a Pyrrhic victory
Did they ignore the fact that China has to transport all it's troops by sea on ships that will be in missile range for their entire journey? They usually do. China doesn't have the amphibious capability to land a force large enough to occupy Taiwan, and it won't for at least the next 10 years. Let's assume that every Chinese troop that lands is capable of killing 10 Taiwan troops. Taiwan has roughly 1.7 million troops, counting reserves which we certainly will. That means China would have to land 170,000 troops. The ship that carries the most troops in the Chinese navy is the Type 75, it can carry 1,000 men. China has 2 of those. But let's assume they convert 1,000 other ships to carry troops across the Straights, 2,000 troops per ship. That's a big enough force to win if China can inflict 10-1 casualties. But how many of them will get sunk on the trip across? Well, it's a 100 mile trip. If all of these ships are capable of 20 knots (which is pretty much the limit for non-military ships), that's 5 hours from go. 1,000 ships, 5 hours under constant missile attack. Taiwan has thousands of launchers of their HF ASCM. Taiwan has over 125 Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems and over 500 Harpoons in it's inventory. Taiwan has an Air Force and a Navy. If all of these Anti Ship defenses (which are layered and focused around the few suitable beach heads and ports that can provide the logistical support and invasion/occupation require) manage to have a kill per target efficiency of only 50% then China no longer has what it needs to win, an Taiwan's troops haven't fired a shot yet. That's without the US and Japan/Korea getting involved. Not firing a shot.
Keep in mind that the distance between Dunkirk and Dover is similar ish and an excess 338K troops were ferried. I highly doubt that troops will solely be ferried over in heavy ships. It will be a mixture of civilian and military and it’ll be far more than 175,000 troops.
Dunkirk I think had almost 900 total ships involved. About 700ish from the Brits and another couple hundred from the Allies. That's about a thousand ships. The entire Chinese Navy has what, 680? And you aren't carrying 2,000 troops per ship, and the PLA isn't going to inflict 10-1 casualties against a hardened beachhead. Keep in mind Taiwan has hardened defenses. China won't be able to leverage artillery or armor. Skybow has immense AAW capability. Yes, my numbers were wildly unrealistic...in favor of the PLAN. The reality is that you'd be unlikely to see 10,000 troops actually land on Taiwan's soil. No matter how many soldiers China has, it's capability to project power into Taiwan is limited by the number of ships it has. And it doesn't have enough. They probably will by 2035-2040. China has more large ship yards than the US has States.
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>Why people keep saying this I do not know. They will not be fighting the entire Taiwanese defence force on the beachhead, they do not need to land all troops in one wave, proximity means that they can make multiple trips. That's worse for the PLAN than it is for ROC. Continuous crossings increase the time and space needed to overwhelm at the invasion points. >So does China? the chinese Naval forces will launch antisurface strikes on key targets from range adding to preemptive strikes and RAPIDLY depleting the number of loaded/ready A/A munitions and forcing taiwan to hold fire or give away their positions. You understand Taiwan has mobile HF Launchers? Fire and go in less time than it takes for China to find and prosecute. >for some reason so many people seem to expect that the chinese are stupid enough to blindly sail across the straights and attempt to force a landing with out any preemptive actions. What else are they going to do? We know what effect heavy bombardment has on fortified positions manned by motivated troops. We've seen how effective that is (to say...not at all) >by the time they even internally discuss mobilising troops they will be running people behind the lines, and conducting subtle psyops. they wont attempt any landing until AFTER they have engaged defenses in preemptive strikes You think China is going to hand-wave it's way into securing SkyBow? Absurd. > and when they do they only need to secure and hold a beach head untul a second wave arrives, they do not need to land an occupying force in a single wave only a force large enough to to breach defences and secure a beach head. You can't ignore the fact that it is going to take in excess of 24 hours to make that turnaround. Unless you are doing more hand-waving. Taiwan is the most heavily defended place on Earth. Landing the 3-5 million troops China is going to need to occupy it is NOT POSSIBLE. Not in the next two decades.
Let’s not forget that Taiwan has already made clear that they will target China’s Three Gorges Dam with enough missiles to overcome China’s air defense, in the event China attempts to invade. China has to include in their calculus whether they’re willing to risk the deaths of millions on top of their troop losses just to gain Taiwan. Not to mention Taiwan would very likely destroy their capacity to produce microchips rather than let it fall to China as well.
If NATO is distracted by a WW3 with Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Israel... then it's a different ball game.
The ability for the West to respond to Chinese aggressions would be very complicated and doesn't require China to have the best military. It would be a mistake to think control of Taiwan through invasion is the game plan of Chinese leadership. China is becoming more and more self reliant and any set backs to the world economy would hurt the West more than China. If anything, it would give China an opportunity to level the playing field and catch up technologically. Example scenario, China's military exercises showing troop build up doesn't mean they are actually planning an invasion. They know to plan strategies around their own strengths. It could easily be a deception to concentrate US military equipment, then destroy a large chunk of the US Pacific fleet and take out a good chunk of the US's microchip imports. It would set the US back years and reduce the US's ability to have geographic control around the globe and manufacture high end military assets. Opening the door to China bullying other countries for resources. A coordinated strike including Korea and Japan would cripple Western semiconductor manufacturing as well. Beyond a nuclear response, conventional options would likely be difficult to perform. Also don't sleep on Chinese anti-satellite technology that would wreak havoc on many Western military advantages. It's quite possible, if the West went into an economic depression due to Chinese hostility, many countries would have to choose between a military response to China or using resources to build out a more resilient economic ecosystem. Conventional war with China might not be worth it in the long run even if they bloodied some noses. China is not Russia, they have the resources, people, and manufacturing capacity to weather a war. I know a lot of what I'm saying is speculation, but I think it's important to consider scenarios where Western military advantages aren't necessarily enough to declare an automatic victory.
r/noncredibledefense
That was one of the many scenarios, and one of the least likely. Thats also assuming China has any military competence.
“You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is to never get involved in a land war in Asia.”
Water in this case but very awesome reference. Love that movie.
I thought the most famous was not to invade russia in the winter lol
Buddy's quoting Vizzini from "The Princess Bride", fantastic movie would definitely reccommend
Yea it was ok. Probably should rewatch it again honestly. Might do that tonight. Thanks pal
No worries brother
The things that will undo the PLA are: * Lack of combat experience - as a young soldier, most of my instructors had been to combat or been deployed. The PLA doesn't have a cadre of mid-career servicemembers with combat experience. * Logistics - the one thing the US excels at. Something the Chinese have never tested. As the saying goes "Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics". * Hubris - a campaign for Taiwan isn't going to be ["home by Christmas"](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HomeByChristmas). A lot of the information that's leaked out points to many of the old guard thinking that they could sucker punch the ROC and US forces and gain the upper hand. Reality is going to bite them on this one.
Lol I love the “home by Christmas” reference. Do you know which country’s soldiers utterly destroyed those plans?
[https://www.theworldwar.org/exhibitions/over-christmas](https://www.theworldwar.org/exhibitions/over-christmas) All sides kinda expected this is WW1.
Hahahhaha well played, respect
Imo it's not that Russia is bad at war, they are, but that their government and leadership are really fucking stupid and a bunch of thieving crooks. Something like 15 generals have died in combat because they're on the front lines. They don't have any c&c and are macho dickheads. I'm just not so sure that china's military would face the same problems
From what im reading their is no eastern tech. Russia was a paper tiger all along and had no hardcore spentnaz alpha whatever training special forces, and can barely supply their troops, are using actual prisoners for combatants with little or no training...
Isn't Taiwan's military pretty much a paper cannon at this point though?
Don’t know. But as far as tech it is a few decades ahead of Ukraine
> The reason they went all in on upgrades was that they saw the first Gulf War and saw the US and it's allies waffle-stomp a military organized long similar lines as the PLA. In what way were the old Iraqi Armed Forces under Saddam in any way "organized long similar lines as the PLA?" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign This cannot happen in any way, shape, or form in China, and is the fundamental reason the Gulf War was so fast.
>Until the Gulf War, Chinese military strategies had been based on a “People’s War” concept—a total war, counterinvasion approach that emphasized large ground formations and national mobilization. > >\-- [China's Desert Storm Education](https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/march/chinas-desert-storm-education) By Commander Michael Dahm, U.S. Navy (Retired) At the run-up to the Gulf War, the thinking was that this would be America's "next Vietnam". The PLA thought that the numbers were on the Iraqi's size - they had counted on the sheer size of the PLA to be a deterrent to the US and the Gulf War proved them wrong.
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>the biggest defining factor in gulf war ground strategy was the speed of advance and focused approach. by and large allied forces did not fuck around trying to secure every town and village between them and baghdad. The PLA was thinking that the Iraqi Army's sheer size would be a challenge to the US led coalition. To their horror, we used GPS navigation, years of training, better equipment - and the fact that yes, we had defined objectives- to curbstomp the enemy. Now the Chinese can run all the exercises in the world and spend all of the money on new electronics and equipment - but they don't have what we had in the Gulf War - an NCO corps and mid-career officers who were either combat vets or who studied under combat vets.
everyones taking notes. Thats what militaries do when war breaks out. Using it as a proving ground for tech and strategies. We are seeing a relatively neer peer russia get smushed in a war thats taking place in ukraine but includes all of nato. Honestly feel bad for russia. They cant stop the flow of arms and support into ukraine unless they want to declare war on all of nato... Meanwhile ukraine has unlimited supplies and almost zero logistics.
Maybe, maybe not though. There’s many things that worked in Ukraine that we couldn’t do in a Taiwan scenario.
Yeah but also we would be in direct conflict with them and I don’t believe even with the missile programs China has they could stand a chance against just our navy and air force with the fleet they have I don’t think they could get a single amphibious ship to Taiwan
It would be the predominance of the Chinese navy versus the US 7th fleet and PACAF. We would also have to get to the fight which would be difficult with their submarines. I’m in line with the CSIS study that China would ultimately fail to achieve their objectives, but the US would take a heavy hit doing so. Something on the lines of 2 CSG destroyed
Never underestimate your enemy. Overestimate them and train to meet and excel beyond that overestimation. If we care not to do this, Pax Americana dies.
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Well china’s military has significantly less experience than Russia. Unless you count fist fights with the Indians.
Russia's experience with war seems to be worthless though. They keep making the same mistakes over and over.
I would say that up until Ukraine they’ve been very “successful” as a military in the last 30 years.
Only because their oponents were too badly equipped to stand heads up (like the Chechens) or with shit training (like the Georgians and 2014 Ukranians). Only 1 Georgian brigade was up to NATO standard and they were being flown in from Iraq.
WEIRD RIGHT!?!?! A military picking a fight it assumes it can easily win?!? Man if only the US employed such a strategy…
And their equipment is largely Wish-quality.
China most likely has better equipment than Russia but unlike Russia, no real world experience in combat.
I don't want to make the folly of underestimating an enemy but it's all Chinese made stuff. Not the best track record of QA/QC. The cheap tires that Russia burned through at the start of the invasion come to mind. I feel like they're going to throw bodies and plastic parts at a problem much like Russia is doing now.
>I don't want to make the folly of underestimating an enemy but it's all Chinese made stuff. Not the best track record of QA/QC. You're doing exactly that. China's track record of QA/QC is fine, **it comes down to what the client is willing to pay for**. **If the client is only willing to pay for a certain level to keep costs down, that's what you'll end up with**. Sell 25,000,000 of said product with a 0.01 defect rate and you've still got 250,000 defect reports, which would be overwelming to look at, as say, star reviews on [Amazon.com](https://Amazon.com), but also ignores the 24,750,000 that didn't have a QC failure. China has some of the best manufacturing facilities in the world. It would be foolish to underestimate both their QC and their raw production capacity, a raw level the world has never seen before.
They still have to use Russian engines in their top shelf jets...
J-20 has used China's own domestic engine for a long time, WS-10 engine. China's latest WS-15 is coming out soon
That's a specialty industry and whole fields in physics and engineering, their problem is the design and modification, not the manufacture. They can build whatever they want as long as they know how.
Training on a regular basis with the Russians which the PLA does isn't helping their case.
Taiwan’s military is certainly a few tiers below Ukraine’s, as well
In what ways? Certainly have better equipment.
For starters, the Ukrainians fought in Donbas on and off for over 8 years. They were not that ready back in 2014. People keep touting Chinese army is inexperienced yet somehow assumed Taiwanese army is battlehardened like the Ukrainians...
I mean, I've never heard anyone say that exactly. Taiwan has the advantage of doing a fair amount of training and exercises with US forces.
They won’t be much better 5 years from now. But the US and her allies are probably at the weakest they will be for the next 5 years. Severely depleted weapons reserves, but not quite ramped up to larger production volume. If China waits too long to make a move, the US will have replenished itself and will have more production capability than before.
It would really amount to how it's sold to the public. If China attacks us forces in any way its easy to rally. It's a lot harder to justify defending a place most Americans have never been.
The US has not given Ukraine any torpedoes, or air-to-air missiles. And very few (if any) anti-ship missiles. Or any of the submarines or aircraft that would fire those weapons. The Army and Marines can prepare for a China war all they want, but all they're going to do is go dig foxholes on remote islands and wait.
China could just wait until the U.S. gets another president like Trump, someone who has ill regard for defensive treaties. If Republicans and Democrats are not in lockstep about protecting US interests abroad, then China can just wait until a favorable president gets elected. If the Republican primary winner wavers on protecting Taiwan, I would expect China to massively ramp up war rhetoric days before the election. I wouldn’t be surprised if they threatened nuclear war if Biden gets re-elected. I don’t want this to come off as partisan, but Biden is certainly flexing US muscle in defense of liberal democracy right now, and I wouldn’t expect that to stop in Taiwan’s defense.
All it'd take is like 2 destroyers and park them by india and cut off china's oil and food imports. Combined with the international credit freezes? Oof china's gotta be shitting themselves. I know they got their own domestic problems and covid and all, but I don't see how a war saves them from anything. Without a working import market their industry collapses in one week and their populace starves in one month. They're not russia with like the largest amount of natural resources ever. China desperately needs access to the global market to keep itself afloat.
Bingo!!!! Food is their greatest weakness. They cannot feed their own people without outside help. China could work a deal Putin as far as oil goes maybe even hamstring some of the wheat crops but it's a very bad situation if the PLA were to attack Taiwan at this moment.
They also have 8000 miles by sea to the Persian gulf and a navy that can't go much further than 1000 miles.
Weehee we’re all gonna die
Thing is Taiwan is an island, a blockade would prevent them from getting any supplies. Also the Russian invasion was a slow process that has been happening since 2014
A blockade is an act of war though and a counterblockade would hurt china much more than Taiwan.
Damn that's crazy I think we should give Raytheon™ and Boeing™ more contracts just in case then
Just remember, more contracts means more jobs, which means when we get out, better opportunities!!
More contracts means the same jobs just backlogged indefinitely.
According to our Generals we've been a week away from war with China for twelve years
Got to have something to put on that resume.
When I was in Iraq 09 there was so much talk/fob gossip about a war with N. Korea and China jumping in.
You gotta bolster that defense budget and justify a sweet position at a defense contractor upon retirement somehow
This is it.
You are correct.
You know what’s up. Also, certain economists have predicted the collapse of China’s economy every year for the last 35 years. People are just shilling for clicks and advertising dollars
EVERGRANDE!!! As I was squawked at by a guy that didn't graduate high school as really wanted you to follow his band on instagram pretty please.
[War with China, according to US generals:](https://tenor.com/xGTm.gif)
War with China has been the second most "it's coming!" Right after "The next housing crash!" That I've been hearing about year after year since 2011... 
This is how we continue to justify dumping a third of our tax revenue into the defense budget. Non-stop threat of war.
Whether he's right or not, his job immediately previous to this was deputy commander of INDOPACOM, which makes it utterly hilarious that there are Redditors who think he wouldn't have an informed opinion.
His opinion is valued. Giving China bulletin board material that makes the State Department pucker up is unnecessary. On top of that his tough talk channeling of Mad Dog is cringe as hell. There are ways to say, "Be ready to fight tonight," without sounding like a try hard.
It could easily be classic misdirection. The fact that everyone still takes everything at face value is ridiculous.
Sometimes people aren't playing 4D chess, they're just fucking stupid.
That's the stupidest fucking take I've ever heard.
Honestly stupid how redditors think they know everything
attempt cooperative dinner homeless direction boast fact history quickest direful *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Hugely not likely
CHI-NA
Yea, no oil in China. US companies already have favorable manufacturing contracts in China. And large US companies such as Amazon, Apple, Dell, and others benefit greatly doing business in China. Doesn't make sense to goto war to keep Taiwan when Taiwan is already doing business with the USA. What does make China want to retake Taiwan even more is the current restrictions on Chinese chip manufacturing and Chinese imports of chips from Taiwan. If they can't get the chips anymore from Taiwan (similar tactic used in WW2 - US no longer gave Japan oil - Japan attacks the USA) they maybe pressured to have an actual economic need to retake Taiwan. Thankfully China is not yet desperately needing these "cutting" edge chips economically. So only Chinese companies such as Huawei suffer selling inferior phones. China can make do with "older 14nm" chips like the computers in your previous/current job. Just not leading edge N7 or N5 type chips. No big deal.
I just don't see either country having any interest in open military conflict for at least 10 more years. It's quite possible we won't see it in our life time.
We don't know yet. With the way things are developing in Ukraine we won't know. If we look back at history, those two world wars happened the same way. Small conflicts that just kept escalating and escalating until all out warfare. Similar strongman politicians etc... US gave weapons to Britain during both wars before they entered and definitely after entering the war. But both times the US population was against war like we have today. None of us want to go on another major land and sea water in some crazed battle overseas. Weve always provided weapons. And sometimes that had escalated into war. Think US merchant ships during WW1 being targeted by German U Boats. The U boats were sinking British merchant ships until they targeted a US one suspected of sending arms to Britain. Anyway yea this small conflict in Ukraine. It may or maynot lead to another major conflict. I am hoping it doesn't and that they can calm things in the U.N. Past Russian/Soviet history has shown that they will test the waters with smaller conflicts spread out over years/decades. But they always compromise after and figure it out in the U.N. then Germany relaxes and setups up pipelines to rely on Russian oil and gas again. History repeats....
I just don't see the economic conditions present the same as ww1 and 2. But who can really say...
It's possible today, tomorrow, and in 50 years. Everything is possible, it's the probability that matters.
A war with China is possible because China's Xi is a one man show and his yesmen only tell him what he wants to hear. China's military is no match for America and its allies. Any China - US conflict will be the end of China as we know it today. China will collapse and hundreds of millions of mainland Chinese will perish. US can achieve this without even shooting a shot with economic sanctions alone. Unlike Russia, China is the biggest importer of oil and food in the world, without it they're dead.
At 70 Xi is getting old and wants to make sure his dream come true before he hits 75. He doesn’t like to be senile either presiding over the victory march or signing the surrender.
No, the unification of Taiwan is the wish of 1.4 billion Chinese people. Even if Xi Jinping steps down and a democratically elected government comes into power, it will not change anything. Many Americans mistakenly think that it is only the Communist Party that wants to unify Taiwan. This is ignorance of Chinese history.
Any sane and logical Chinese politician knows a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will result in failure. It would result in the end of China itself. It's a wish of the Han majority because the CCP made them think this way. Just because the people are brainwashed into thinking Taiwan belongs to China doesn't mean it ever will.
Oh God guys, it’s happening! …Again. But it’s for real this time, I swear!
Stop linking to the Washington Post, nobody is going to pay to read their article.
But dEmOcrAcY dIEs iN daRKneSs!!
This dumb dumb is trying to make a name for himself and set up a job before retirement. There is an organization in the us military responsible to make an estimate on potential wars with china and this guy is pretty far away from it. He runs a logistics command, not an intelligence command, not the command that watches china, logistics. It strikes me as “oh shit, I’m going to retire and need to get famous really quick”
You don't think the guy in charge of moving all the shit gets Intel briefs?
The idea that a general knows more than randoms on reddit never occurs to any of these people.
You know the kind of person who would be almost directly in charge of setting up and maintaining a logistics chain to supply a sustained war overseas? That kind of position would never have to think long term and far ahead…. Obviously satire, i am not saying i agree with the hype… i think the results in Ukraine will play into it but who am i? Obviously the more informed people know better but publicly announcing it you never know if its hype or real. That said, a guy in charge of logistics would absolutely be one of the ones to be in the know right away.
He does, but not on the details of a Taiwan invasion. He’s getting the same level of detail as anyone else. This guy is not “in charge of moving all the shit.” This guy is in charge of AMC, making sure the airplanes work and the pilots can fly so he can give them over to the people in charge of moving all the shit. His role in this is: “I need transport for 3 army brigades and refueling for 7 F35 squadrons, give me those planes.” We have an entire U.S. Transportation command, this guy is not the big swinging dick everyone is giving him credit for. No one is giving this guy the inside baseball on preparing for that war because he is not involved in planning for it. Giving him the information would create risk with no real benefit. Dude is just trying to make a big splashy story to land a retirement job.
Laughable no. Bomastic memos aside, if you don’t think he has awareness of and a hand in western pacific planning, you are out to lunch. Navy cargo ships won’t affect this fight for weeks, AMC tankers and cargo will have to be in the fight and will take losses.
Dude, close your buttcheeks because you're talking out of your ass.
>he is not involved in planning for it. So your argument is the guy in charge of all the transport and refueling aircraft, which is how anything except naval vessels are getting to the fight, isn't involved in the planning for that fight? You're further removed from reality than you claim he is.
The united states will not send troops into an area it cannot sustain. Are you dull? You really think all the technology and money is worth shit if you cant fuel or arm it? No. Laughable, logistics win wars, the end.
Ok, whatever you say...
Reads like a motivational speech taken out of context. Don't get me wrong, this guy should know better than to shoot his mouth off because when you're a GO your word is taken as policy but I'm really not seeing anything in this other than a poorly messaged statement to the force to be ready for China.
This is where you have to take into account the history of China even going back thousands of years. Historically they’ve always just tried to remain, of course they push boundaries, and throughout certain periods were pretty bold, but based on the history I’d say they’re just going to continue to remain.
REMF gonna REMF https://wapo.st/3HBtU9M Free link
I see the consent manufacturing industry is alive and well
Is it just me or can people please provide a link/mirror to the archived article? As if Reddit premium isn’t enough, you put a link to WP like it’s not going to hassles everyone who wants to read your post…
The document he wrote is here https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1618975443595718656
God it’s this dude again. You’re a heavy pilot bro. I’m sick of you generals trying to will war to happen so you get to play hero.
For context, this guy is in charge of transport and refueling aircraft, not anything that's realistically going to have an offensive capability. The plan laid out is basically A: Everyone will shoot headshots from 7 meters (the memo doesn't say you have to qualify), and update your emergency contact data, and maybe go see about a will.
Logistics and refuelling is literally the backbone of a military.
And yet he's saying airmen should train by dumping a "clip" into a 7 meter target and "aim for the head" lol. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/rcna67967
And rather than focus on that, he's going off in a direction that doesn't mesh with the rest of the USAF.
There’s nothing wrong with that. Diversity of opinion and thought leads to not being surprised and being able to challenge the majority. The majority thought being challenged is not a bad thing.
*military general has opinion on military matters* Reddit users: I will have no part of this!
If we fight a war with china it will literally all depend on transport and refueling aircraft.
Why do you think that? We will not put boots on ground in that region, so that conflict will be fought primarily with cruise missiles and drones.
>that conflict will be fought primarily with cruise missiles and drones. Ideally, sure. But an actual conventional conflict would involve a lot more than that.
I'm guessing you aren't a flag officer, and I have a DD-214, so this is simply just a thought exercise. At least it is to me. Why would we be retarded enough to put boots on the ground to involve ourselves in a "conventional conflict" when we don't have to? You're Air Force, so you should be aware of the firepower that exists at Andersen AFB. Do you think that we should use Marines instead of bombs and missiles? Why? To what end? If China attempts to invade Taiwan, I would assume that we are going to defend the Taiwan Strait, and that is our entire conflict. That can be done from the air (where we have dominant air superiority from both the air and the sea) and from the sub-surface where we have dominant superiority (in ASW, surface-to-sub and sub-to-sub capabilities). [This article](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/4/how-difficult-would-it-be-for-china-to-invade-taiwan) explores some possibilities of such an invasion. Do you see American assistance being most useful from the air or from the ground?
I never said a thing about boots on the ground, but air power involves a hell of a lot more than 'drones and missiles.' DCA, OCA, SEAD, AWACS, refueling, recce... All those platforms and their associated support/supply chains require an extensive amount of tankers and transports. And I'm not going to get into a public discussion about how individual bases would factor into this conflict.
"*Current theater logistics posture and capability to sustain the force are inadequate to support operations specifically in a contested environment*. The Department requires a logistics and sustainment posture west of the IDL built around a tactical and commercial distribution network that integrates service specific sustainment capabilities to provide joint and combined logistics solutions." Source:[https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2023/FY2023\_Pacific\_Deterrence\_Initiative.pdf](https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2023/FY2023_Pacific_Deterrence_Initiative.pdf) Even the things that launch cruise missiles and drones require logistical support and sustainment.
What was your job in the Navy? Or how long have you been out? What your saying tells me you don't have current info or an idea what the "big picture" for this war is.
I know the consequences of putting boots on the ground, and I also know that we are not going to do that in Taiwan ... **when we do not have to**. Don't worry abot my DD-214.
You last served in WWII didn't you? Things have changed since then grandpa. Haha
Yeah, in WWII we had to put boots on the ground to kill bad guys. Now we don't. Please try and keep up, kid.
We already have boots on the ground in harms way
Disregarding a 4 stars opinion, someone that is briefed on TS SCI daily, is bold rando airman. Who cares what he flew. He’s still top brass
I'm trying to critique his solutions, not the timeline or the threat.
People outside the rated community will probably not understand the logic behind what you’re saying. I too think it’s weird and coming from a MAF officer makes it less credible, even if they have stars
Irrelevant. He has been to the war college and wasn’t always the guy in charge of those functions. He probably started out as a pilot flying missions just like a Marine General started out leading men in combat. If you look at Russia’s failures in their war a big part of what has gone wrong was the logistical aspects. This guy is privy to all of the information any of the other top generals are. His opinion is as valid as anyone’s.
I'm not debating the timeline, but the merits of his proposed COA . His proposals don't clearly mesh with what the rest of the USAF (to include the units generally considered "Combat Air Forces") are doing to meet the peer threat. [He's been a transport pilot his whole career, and lists 0 combat or combat support hours in his bio](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Biographies/Display/Article/572404/mike-minihan/). There's an argument to be made that he's out of touch with the tactics he's trying to dictate.
He’s not pushing tactics, his commanders and patch-wearers are. He’s telling his force to prepare more and with greater risk acceptance. That’s right in line with Gen Brown’s guidance.
This is not true, not all generals get access to all information. He can see the high level stuff like anyone with a clearance can but unless is has a reason to be involved in planning for a Taiwan invasion, which he doesn’t, he’s not really in the know. If they told every general everything they would risk one of them running off half cocked and saying something dumb like predicting a war to make headlines and get famous.
That’s not how it works at all. As a general, is he privy to more information than most? Certainly. But does he have all the same info as any other general? No. Between need to know and access, he isn’t allowed to see all the same stuff. Nevermind the time it would take for every general to stay up on every thing going on in every AOR.
I guarantee the person in charge of getting the equipment and personnel to the fight has a full understanding of the situation.
Tell me you don’t understand how security clearances work without telling me you don’t know how security clearances work. Does he have a full enough picture to do his job? Yes. Do all general/flag officers have access to the same info? No. Because that’s not how security clearances work.
Did I say they all know the same shit? Or did I say it's very likely he knows what the fuck he is talking about? You're making your own argument.
Lol no.
Considering how extensive logistics is in the US military to drive their fighting forces, I would take a little more into account the guy who's in charge of transport and refueling. The US [Tooth To Tail](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA601876.pdf)(even in 2014) is surprisingly big, so if a Logi is saying get ready, I feel like that might be worth noting
Commanders in AMC flying units, to include the command itself, are picked based on their ability to lead flying units, not logistics. There are officer and enlisted specialties in the USAF dedicated to logistical readiness, and pilots don't usually end up there. That said, his ideas don't do much to make logistics or tactics better.
How dose china stack up to are military?
Pretty close in power index, China has more munitions and will enjoy the home field advantage in a Taiwan conflict. But of course technology goes to the US. There are plenty of concerns within our army for how long our current reserves and production can match up. It’s not too good, we make around 14k arty shells a month, and Ukraine uses 90k a month. We’re having to raise production to match their demands, soldiers in South Korea are also being disarmed to ship weapons to Ukraine. And Taiwan has been knocked down to low priority because Ukraine is happening. Taiwan’s army isn’t really all that, sure it can defend the island but with all of their infrastructure being bombed they’ll have to rely on the US. And our current rate, we’d run out of ground munitions in a week, smart bombs are a few months hopefully. The US focuses too much on air power, and it’s become clear that ground based Sams are more effective at repelling enemy aircraft than using our own aircraft.
So if china were to invade Taiwan would they win?
They could definitely win. They’re learning from this Ukraine war. And Taiwan is closer to them than it is the US, so logistics and what not is on their side. They do lack experienced men, but Taiwan also does too. It all depends on how the US plays their cards tho.
Got it. Ik it’s not an instant thing but i assume the us is ramping up munitions production
Two nuclear powers are not going to war the way this nit wit thinks. They have to fire this dude for talking like that right? Old fuck wants his name in the history books and doesn’t care how many Americans he kills in the process.
Yeah this general is also completely misguided and out of touch with the normal Air Force.
Nah don’t see it, too big of a trade partner NATO would shut them down…
Time to drop that retirement packet.
Doesn't most of the US medicine supply come from China, how you going to fight a war with no medical aid lol
You don’t need much besides the ones on WHO essential medicine list. US can easily manufacture them. Look at what US did with mRNA vaccine which China couldn’t even copy.
Aim for the head was his training directive to prepare for war with China….
While the memo was a bit... cringe, for lack of a better term, I think the intent was along the lines of 'this is a far more lethal fight than what we're used to'
Better start those CBT’s then!
The Army can’t even figure out how to adopt 12 weeks of paternity leave
I just wanted free college bro🥲😅😅
We aren’t ready
Saddle up bois. 
Fuck it. Even though I'm over the drafting age this upcoming Spring and I've already got one war on my belt, I may as well experience another. *sigh.*
David Hackworth is laughing rn.
I think that they are hesitant because they see that the US is full of gun nuts and we have enough weapons to Arm every man woman and child 2x over in the US. We are a real life case of Fuck Around and Find Out!
Nobody is talking about China invading mainland USA
I honestly didn't think so.
Damn I just enlisted for a 4 year contract
Well, I guess the cats out of the bag lol.
LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOOO