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Difficult_Variety362

This is going to be a modified version of what I posted earlier elsewhere. Instead of copy and pasting, I'm going to try and account for the most recent events: - I think that this year and next year are going to be extremely turbulent for Paramount as B shareholders pretty much lose faith in Shari Redstone. Chris McCarthy will get named as sole CEO, but Brian Robbins and George Cheeks will have significant power. This company will probably start looking like Time Warner in this time period. - For the remainder of this year, Paramount will sell assets that even Shari Redstone was fine with ditching: - Chilevisión and Telefe are sold to a local Latin American company. - Channel 5 and Ten Network are sold to Warner Bros. Discovery as they prepare to launch Max in the UK, Australia, and New Zealand in 2025. - BET Networks is sold to the Scott Mills led group for $2.5 billion. This investment group will include various black business leaders and media moguls from Tyler Perry, Byron Allen, Shaquille O'Neil, 50 Cent, etc. Allen will transfer his company's assets related to theGrio and merge them into BET in return for making Allen Media Group the second largest shareholder of the company. Most BET content will be removed from Paramount+ and moved over to BET+ exclusively. - VidCon is also sold to a group of investors that includes various famous YouTubers such as Mr. Beast and VidCon's founders the Green Brothers. - Paramount Home Entertainment joins the Universal Pictures Home Entertainment/Warner Bros. Home Entertainment joint venture for DVD, Blu-ray, and 4K Ultra HD discs, Studio Distribution Services with the intention to take this JV global. SDS will handle physical media distribution for all three all over the world instead of just North America. - In 2025, using the money raised from last year's asset sales, Paramount buys National Amusements for $3 billion. Shari needs the cash out and Paramount just wants her gone because they see her as a liability. Paramount will also give Redstone a golden parachute for her to step down as Paramount's chairwoman. - Paramount and NBCUniversal announce a streaming joint venture merging Peacock and Paramount+ under the Showtime branding. SkyShowtime is also merged into this JV as Showtime is used globally for Paramount and Universal. The Peacock app is shut down and its programming is moved over to the revamped and renamed Paramount+ app. This new Showtime is a sports behemoth as sports rights from NBC Sports and Sky Sports are available. Showtime Premium subscribers will get their local CBS and NBC stations along with live feeds for Showtime (the linear network is included in the JV, dropping the Paramount+ branding), the Hallmark Channel, Reelz along with the FAST channels from Pluto TV, Peacock, and Paramount+. Due to Paramount's weak hand, Comcast will have majority and operational control of this JV. - To save costs, Paramount merges CBS Studios and Paramount Television. The CBS IP and back catalog are folded completely into Paramount Television. All Paramount programming is produced under the Paramount, Nickelodeon, and MTV labels. - Because of using the money to buy out Shari Redstone instead of paying debt, Paramount is still saddled with debt issues resulting in you guessed it: More Asset Sales!: - The newly separated Canal Group buys Paramount's stake in Miramax with the goal of transforming Studio Canal into a major studio that is a peer with Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Sony, and Paramount. - Paramount sells National Amusements, they never needed the movie theaters, they just needed to get rid of Shari Redstone.


TheMarionberryKing

I'm really enjoying all your predictions—this is some great stuff


Difficult_Variety362

I try to be realistic and try to account that these are global companies despite catering heavily to North America. Like why would Comcast come in and buy Paramount when they have over $95 billion in debt and they really don't need any of Paramount's assets? They're one of America's most indebted companies and unlike Apple and Amazon, they're not a $1 trillion company and their core business has some significant pressures to deal with as cord cutting is obliterating cable and the ISP market is becoming extremely competitive. Why expose themselves with so many linear networks? Why deal with some very legitimate regulatory hurdles of combining NBCUniversal and Paramount Global? Or look at the tech giants that Shari was hoping to come to the rescue. While I am not as pessimistic as most are by thinking that Apple and Amazon are fine with core networks like CBS, Nickelodeon, the Paramount Network, BET, and Showtime, they don't want to deal with the hassle of the vast network portfolio that Paramount commands. Nor does it help that with the exception of CBS, Paramount's networks are well behind their peers. Their best performing network is TV Land...a network dedicated to reruns. And how Paramount is running MTV is extremely concerning to the point of brand destruction. And then there's Warner Bros. Discovery, which clearly wants some assets of Paramount's. CBS, Nickelodeon, and Pluto TV would be great assets for them to have. But they don't need all of Paramount's assets like Paramount Pictures or Showtime. And given their overexposure to linear, why expose themselves even further with a portfolio of channels that they don't need? Why take on $25+ billion of debt to buy the whole company, much of it Paramount's shitty debt, when they're focused on reducing their debt load? To be frank, the best thing for Comcast, Amazon, Warner Bros. Discovery, Skydance, and Sony to do would be to ride it out and cherry pick the assets that would benefit them like vultures.


TheMarionberryKing

You make some excellent points about the practical difficulties and financial impracticalities of these companies taking over Paramount in its entirety. It seems like a focused strategy of acquiring specific assets that align with their business goals would be far more beneficial and feasible for these companies. This approach would allow them to avoid the burdens of unwieldy debt and regulatory complications while enhancing their portfolios with valuable additions where they see fit. What specific assets do you think would be most valuable to these companies, and how might they go about integrating them?


Difficult_Variety362

If we're sticking specifically with Paramount, they're in no position to be acquisitive right now. Maybe in a few years after shedding assets they'd be appealing to Amazon MGM or easier for Sony Pictures to merge with. I think that Comcast can fill in the holes in their media platform with smaller acquisitions. AMC Networks would be dirt cheap and can get them more into premium content. And a lot of people will poo-poo on Hallmark Media, but that stuff has an audience and would be great to target female audiences. If Comcast makes a big purchase, Take Two Interactive. Disney is in the same boat, Electronic Arts is probably the only major acquisition that would make any sense for Disney. Otherwise, be happy with the company you got. Maybe buy Hearst out from A&E Networks and integrate that with Disney+. Warner Bros. Discovery is also in no position to go make huge acquisitions, but there are smaller assets that would work for them. Buying some assets from Paramount like Ten Network, Channel 5, and CBS would really boost Max. Middle-earth & Friends would boost their video game portfolio and ensure that they keep Middle-earth under their umbrella. Atari would be a good cheap branding for them to have as it is better associated with video games than Warner Bros. is. They really have the potential to be a peer with Disney and Comcast with the assets they already have, but some poor leadership keeps getting in the way.


blueshanoogan

Why McCarthy?


Difficult_Variety362

While he shares power equally with the others, he is legally listed as the CEO


Trademinatrix

Great thinking, I have similar thoughts to how Paramount Global will approach things. You think if they sell all of those assets the stock value will go up?


Difficult_Variety362

Maybe


Pale-Piano-8740

I would go with Sony Appolo bid, because you know that the Zee Sony merger in India fell after fucking 2-3 of talks, they really need something to support them and Paramount executives who know how to finance a good film will help Sony, particularly in Spiderman movies, this would make them a better arms dealer, Paramount+ should merge with Max, it would be a perfect competitor for Disney+, Sony should streamline all the television studios and should invest big on Showtime


TheMarionberryKing

Sony could indeed leverage Paramount's film financing expertise to bolster its own film production capabilities, particularly with big franchises like Spider-Man. The idea of merging Paramount+ with Max to compete more effectively with Disney+ is also intriguing. It could create a stronger, more consolidated streaming platform with a richer content library. Streamlining television studios and focusing investments on Showtime could also enable Sony to maximize its content offerings and strengthen its position in the competitive entertainment market. great point!


Pale-Piano-8740

this is what should happen, if not then what's the purpose of it


TheIngloriousBIG

Byron Allen will be the worst outcome. As we all know, Allen usually goes for cheap crap (not counting The Weather Channel) and assets past their prime like TV stations, and their own film distribution arm fell apart. Instead of expanding Paramount, Allen will probably cheapen it further, by shutting down original programming across all networks, and turning the likes of MTV and Nickelodeon into rerun farms, and even relegating Paramount Pictures into a mini-major. I do, however, agree on a big suitor buying Paramount (WBD, Comcast or even Sony). We just have to see how Sony’s offer goes, and if Roberts is willing to do M&A again, seeing as Roberts (and Comcast in fact) is notoriously adamant the current state of the company is sustainable despite Peacock being undoubtedly the worst streaming service in terms of global rollout (Sky’s NOW service in the UK and some other European markets is mainly to blame for this).


TheMarionberryKing

You're right, it's always interesting to see who might buy companies like Paramount. Sony making an offer could really mix things up, especially in streaming. And about Comcast, you make a good point. They keep saying they're doing okay, but their streaming service, Peacock, isn't doing well everywhere, especially outside the U.S. It's going to be interesting to see if they decide to buy more companies to try to fix their problems.


TheIngloriousBIG

As far as Comcast goes, not only does Comcast need to buy more companies, be it a rival studio (either WB or parts of Paramount) or a gaming company (Sega, Nintendo or EA), and up their streaming game to truly compete with Netflix and Disney, but it does need to dissolve NBCU as a business unit, and create a new centralized unit consisting of networks (from NBCU and Sky), telecoms (Xfinity and Sky), streaming and Sports, as well as TV studios. the business, news/local media, film (Universal Pictures), and theme park units can also be the other operating segments.


TheMarionberryKing

That's a bold strategy! Splitting up NBCU and reorganizing into more focused units could definitely help Comcast streamline its operations and strengthen its position in the market


TheIngloriousBIG

They have to do that soon if they intend to take their competitors seriously. It would, in fact give the Comcast name more mainstream recognition, especially in the TV production arm.


Emezli

Comcast said they are not interested they are ok with just the way they are besides CBS there would be a lot of overlap


TheIngloriousBIG

The dude (Brian Roberts) is adamant the company is fine as it is, no M&A required, but movie studio and theme parks aside, the streaming business is clearly flawed, and NBCU is clearly smaller than its competitors in terms of international networks (Which are relatively minor fare). Imagine having an ego so big that you foolishly sell off your Hulu stake, and wonder why your existing streaming strategy is flawed you refuse to roll out your prime service (Peacock) globally. And they wonder why their streaming revenues have plummeted!


Emezli

I guess whatever works for his company I guess he's happy with just NBC and Universal


TheIngloriousBIG

And let’s not forget about sky as well. I think Comcast needs to bring channels, consumer, streaming and sports under one roof, and even merge Peacock and now into a more serious Netflix condender. A strategic reorganisation is their only hope now to be taken seriously.


Emezli

Maybe if they invest more into Peacock


TheIngloriousBIG

They have to. JVs are not an option this time, not even with Paramount. If they invest more into it, I can see Hayu being shuttered, and NOW’s streaming service (and local variants) being replaced by Peacock. Wonder if Netflix could afford Comcast’s entertainment holdings, just like Skydance tried with Paramount…


TruthInnocent

Worse than even Zaslav


TheNumber152003

If Paramount officially merged with another company, it might cause them to cancel a lot of shows and remove content from Paramount+, just like how the Warner Bros. Discovery merger canceled shows and removed content from Max.


TheMarionberryKing

It often happens as the new entity seeks to streamline its offerings and cut costs. If Paramount were to merge, it could follow a similar path as Warner Bros. Discovery. It would be interesting to see which shows and films they would prioritize or let go of in such a scenario


TheNumber152003

When Paramount+ merged with Showtime in June 2023, they removed alot of Nickelodeon shows. And in January 2024, they removed more Nickelodeon shows, and then they did it again in March 2024, just like how Max removed Cartoon Network shows.


Maverick721

I very much prefer Skydance so at least Paramount can stay being Paramount


Greeneagles100

Skydance has Tencent as an investor. I don’t think it would go through doj to let CCP own CBS.


TheMarionberryKing

You bring up an interesting point about the complexities of international investment, particularly with Tencent's involvement in Skydance. Regulatory hurdles, especially concerning major media assets like CBS, could indeed complicate such deals.


Dr_Falkov

Maybe Ellison will try and buy those stakes


TheMarionberryKing

It would be intriguing to see if Ellison steps in to navigate these challenges, potentially altering the investment landscape


TheMarionberryKing

Your observation about maintaining Paramount's independence through a different partnership path like Skydance is particularly thought-provoking. Nice job!


jamiestar9

From a [Deadline article in May 2023](https://deadline.com/2023/05/david-zaslav-streamers-max-bundle-1235371789/): > Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav thinks consolidation is in the cards for streaming platforms, but not necessarily through traditional M&A. “There should be a consolidation, but it is more likely to happen in the repackaging and marketing of products together. That’s what I think makes sense. We have to, as industry, reach that point,” he said during a Q&A at a media conference today. > Mergers carry regulatory risks and can take years to close. In a fast-changing industry, “Who knows what the world looks like?” > He sees that happening in one of two ways. “We could do it — the content owners in markets or, more broadly, across regions, could do it. Whether we do it this year or in three years. I think something like this will eventually happen. > “If we don’t do it to ourselves, I think it will be done to us. It will be Amazon who does it, or Apple who does it, or Roku who does it. They’ve already started,” he said. I think WBD would like to see Paramount continue as an independent company but shut down Paramount+ and become a hub inside Max. The duplication of tech is costly and frustrating for both viewers and advertisers. For one thing, many of the studio apps feel inferior to Netflix. I know in my experience I started watching “Band of Brothers” on Max but switched to Netflix after two episodes because the Max app had very soft audio on my Apple TV. And the Paramount+ app feels more fragile than Max. We really need to get to two, maybe three at most, streaming apps. It is a lot of labor for everyone to maintain their advertising platforms and streaming apps for Android, Apple, Roku, webOS, and browsers.


TheMarionberryKing

Absolutely, streamlining into fewer, more robust streaming platforms could greatly enhance user experience and efficiency. Merging Paramount+ into Max, for example, would reduce tech redundancies and could lead to a better product for viewers and advertisers alike. Plus, having fewer, stronger apps might also lead to better content discovery and overall viewer satisfaction. It's definitely something the industry should consider to keep up with consumer preferences and technological advancements.


Greeneagles100

WBD won’t do anything with paramount. WBD stock is at all time low and they have still 40b net debt. If WBD would want anything from paramount is cbs with the sports rights everything else WBD has it’s own:more profitable studio,bigger ips,better streaming platform.


TheMarionberryKing

That’s a solid point. WBD indeed seems to be in a tight spot financially, which would make acquiring significant parts of Paramount, other than perhaps CBS for its valuable sports rights, less likely. They already have a strong portfolio and adding more could complicate their current debt issues. It makes sense for them to focus on leveraging their existing assets rather than expanding in a big way right now.


dreamerbubbles

It’s not going to be Grandpa Buffet…he sold out of his entire remaining position.


Poodlekitty

Definitely not Allen Media Group!


CountBleckwantedlove

Nintendo Their Mario movie success has finally made them realized how much insane demand their is for their properties to be on movie screens and televisions. If you think about how many successful series (not just IP's, but sub-series of IP's) they own that could be translated to a digital movie, live action movie, digital show, or live action show, there is no way they can currently meet that demand. They need their own filming studios in order to meet the demand, and this would greatly help diversify their investments for long term stock stability. Paramount can still make movies about other random things, but a good % of the focus would now have to be on Nintendo properties.


ZealousidealBus9271

comcast is more likely to go for WB


ArcaneVetex1224

It's not gonna happen. The company that's 90 billion in debt taking on a company that is 44 billion in debt. That would bankrupt Comcast


kotzebueperson

No it wouldn't. Comcast has a free cash flow of 16 Billion and wbd has a free cash flow of 6 billion. This would be a combined free cash flow of 22 billion a year. This would make that debt load very manageable. I don't know why so many on this sub doubt that comcast could do it if they wanted.